Toward an Evolutionarily Appropriate Null Model: Jointly Inferring Demography and Purifying Selection

A Population-Genetic Lens into the Process of Gene Loss Following Whole-Genome Duplication

Whole-genome duplications (WGDs) have occurred in many eukaryotic lineages. However, the underlying evolutionary forces and molecular mechanisms responsible for the long-term retention of gene duplicates created by WGDs are not well understood. We employ a population-genomic approach to understand the selective forces acting on paralogs and investigate ongoing duplicate-gene loss in multiple species of Paramecium that share an ancient WGD. We show that mutations that abolish protein function are more likely to be segregating in retained WGD paralogs than in single-copy genes, most likely because of ongoing nonfunctionalization post-WGD. This relaxation of purifying selection occurs in only one WGD paralog, accompanied by the gradual fixation of nonsynonymous mutations and reduction in levels of expression, and occurs over a long period of evolutionary time, "marking" one locus for future loss. Concordantly, the fitness effects of new nonsynonymous mutations and frameshift-causing indels are significantly more deleterious in the highly expressed copy compared with their paralogs with lower expression. Our results provide a novel mechanistic model of gene duplicate loss following WGDs, wherein selection acts on the sum of functional activity of both duplicate genes, allowing the two to wander in expression and functional space, until one duplicate locus eventually degenerates enough in functional efficiency or expression that its contribution to total activity is too insignificant to be retained by purifying selection. Retention of duplicates by such mechanisms predicts long times to duplicate-gene loss, which should not be falsely attributed to retention due to gain/change in function.

The impact of frequently neglected model violations on bacterial recombination rate estimation: a case study in Mycobacterium canettii and Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium canettii is a causative agent of tuberculosis in humans, along with the members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Frequently used as an outgroup to the M. tuberculosis complex in phylogenetic analyses, M. canettii is thought to offer the best proxy for the progenitor species that gave rise to the complex. Here, we leverage whole-genome sequencing data and biologically relevant population genomic models to compare the evolutionary dynamics driving variation in the recombining M. canettii with that in the nonrecombining M. tuberculosis complex, and discuss differences in observed genomic diversity in the light of expected levels of Hill-Robertson interference. In doing so, we highlight the methodological challenges of estimating recombination rates through traditional population genetic approaches using sequences called from populations of microorganisms and evaluate the likely mis-inference that arises owing to a neglect of common model violations including purifying selection, background selection, progeny skew, and population size change. In addition, we compare performance when full within-host polymorphism data are utilized, versus the more common approach of basing analyses on within-host consensus sequences.

Dominance shifts increase the likelihood of soft selective sweeps

Genetic models of adaptation to a new environment have typically assumed that the alleles involved maintain a constant fitness dominance across the old and new environments. However, theories of dominance suggest that this should often not be the case. Instead, the alleles involved should frequently shift from recessive deleterious in the old environment to dominant beneficial in the new environment. Here, we study the consequences of these expected dominance shifts for the genetics of adaptation to a new environment. We find that dominance shifts increase the likelihood that adaptation occurs from standing variation, and that multiple alleles from the standing variation are involved (a soft selective sweep). Furthermore, we find that expected dominance shifts increase the haplotypic diversity of selective sweeps, rendering soft sweeps more detectable in small genomic samples. In cases where an environmental change threatens the viability of the population, we show that expected dominance shifts of newly beneficial alleles increase the likelihood of evolutionary rescue and the number of alleles involved. Finally, we apply our results to a well-studied case of adaptation to a new environment: the evolution of pesticide resistance at the Ace locus in Drosophila melanogaster. We show that, under reasonable demographic assumptions, the expected dominance shift of resistant alleles causes soft sweeps to be the most frequent outcome in this case, with the primary source of these soft sweeps being the standing variation at the onset of pesticide use, rather than recurrent mutation thereafter.

Recommendations for improving statistical inference in population genomics

The field of population genomics has grown rapidly in response to the recent advent of affordable, large-scale sequencing technologies. As opposed to the situation during the majority of the 20th century, in which the development of theoretical and statistical population genetic insights outpaced the generation of data to which they could be applied, genomic data are now being produced at a far greater rate than they can be meaningfully analyzed and interpreted. With this wealth of data has come a tendency to focus on fitting specific (and often rather idiosyncratic) models to data, at the expense of a careful exploration of the range of possible underlying evolutionary processes. For example, the approach of directly investigating models of adaptive evolution in each newly sequenced population or species often neglects the fact that a thorough characterization of ubiquitous nonadaptive processes is a prerequisite for accurate inference. We here describe the perils of these tendencies, present our consensus views on current best practices in population genomic data analysis, and highlight areas of statistical inference and theory that are in need of further attention. Thereby, we argue for the importance of defining a biologically relevant baseline model tuned to the details of each new analysis, of skepticism and scrutiny in interpreting model fitting results, and of carefully defining addressable hypotheses and underlying uncertainties.

Globally Relaxed Selection and Local Adaptation in Boechera stricta

The strength of selection varies among populations and across the genome, but the determinants of efficacy of selection remain unclear. In this study, we used whole-genome sequencing data from 467 Boechera stricta accessions to quantify the strength of selection and characterize the pattern of local adaptation. We found low genetic diversity on 0-fold degenerate sites and conserved non-coding sites, indicating functional constraints on these regions. The estimated distribution of fitness effects and the proportion of fixed substitutions suggest relaxed negative and positive selection in B. stricta. Among the four population groups, the NOR and WES groups have smaller effective population size (Ne), higher proportions of effectively neutral sites, and lower rates of adaptive evolution compared with UTA and COL groups, reflecting the effect of Ne on the efficacy of natural selection. We also found weaker selection on GC-biased sites compared with GC-conservative (unbiased) sites, suggested that GC-biased gene conversion has affected the strength of selection in B. stricta. We found mixed evidence for the role of the recombination rate on the efficacy of selection. The positive and negative selection was stronger in high-recombination regions compared with low-recombination regions in COL but not in other groups. By scanning the genome, we found different subsets of selected genes suggesting differential adaptation among B. stricta groups. These results show that differences in effective population size, nucleotide composition, and recombination rate are important determinants of the efficacy of selection. This study enriches our understanding of the roles of natural selection and local adaptation in shaping genomic variation.

Meiotic, genomic and evolutionary properties of crossover distribution in Drosophila yakuba

The number and location of crossovers across genomes are highly regulated during meiosis, yet the key components controlling them are fast evolving, hindering our understanding of the mechanistic causes and evolutionary consequences of changes in crossover rates. Drosophila melanogaster has been a model species to study meiosis for more than a century, with an available high-resolution crossover map that is, nonetheless, missing for closely related species, thus preventing evolutionary context. Here, we applied a novel and highly efficient approach to generate whole-genome high-resolution crossover maps in D. yakuba to tackle multiple questions that benefit from being addressed collectively within an appropriate phylogenetic framework, in our case the D. melanogaster species subgroup. The genotyping of more than 1,600 individual meiotic events allowed us to identify several key distinct properties relative to D. melanogaster. We show that D. yakuba, in addition to higher crossover rates than D. melanogaster, has a stronger centromere effect and crossover assurance than any Drosophila species analyzed to date. We also report the presence of an active crossover-associated meiotic drive mechanism for the X chromosome that results in the preferential inclusion in oocytes of chromatids with crossovers. Our evolutionary and genomic analyses suggest that the genome-wide landscape of crossover rates in D. yakuba has been fairly stable and captures a significant signal of the ancestral crossover landscape for the whole D. melanogaster subgroup, even informative for the D. melanogaster lineage. Contemporary crossover rates in D. melanogaster, on the other hand, do not recapitulate ancestral crossovers landscapes. As a result, the temporal stability of crossover landscapes observed in D. yakuba makes this species an ideal system for applying population genetic models of selection and linkage, given that these models assume temporal constancy in linkage effects. Our studies emphasize the importance of generating multiple high-resolution crossover rate maps within a coherent phylogenetic context to broaden our understanding of crossover control during meiosis and to improve studies on the evolutionary consequences of variable crossover rates across genomes and time.

Strong neutral sweeps occurring during a population contraction

A strong reduction in diversity around a specific locus is often interpreted as a recent rapid fixation of a positively selected allele, a phenomenon called a selective sweep. Rapid fixation of neutral variants can however lead to a similar reduction in local diversity, especially when the population experiences changes in population size, e.g. bottlenecks or range expansions. The fact that demographic processes can lead to signals of nucleotide diversity very similar to signals of selective sweeps is at the core of an ongoing discussion about the roles of demography and natural selection in shaping patterns of neutral variation. Here, we quantitatively investigate the shape of such neutral valleys of diversity under a simple model of a single population size change, and we compare it to signals of a selective sweep. We analytically describe the expected shape of such "neutral sweeps" and show that selective sweep valleys of diversity are, for the same fixation time, wider than neutral valleys. On the other hand, it is always possible to parametrize our model to find a neutral valley that has the same width as a given selected valley. Our findings provide further insight into how simple demographic models can create valleys of genetic diversity similar to those attributed to positive selection.

Dominance can increase genetic variance after a population bottleneck: a synthesis of the theoretical and empirical evidence

Drastic reductions in population size, or population bottlenecks, can lead to a reduction in additive genetic variance and adaptive potential. Genetic variance for some quantitative genetic traits, however, can increase after a population reduction. Empirical evaluations of quantitative traits following experimental bottlenecks indicate that non-additive genetic effects, including both allelic dominance at a given locus and epistatic interactions among loci, may impact the additive variance contributed by alleles that ultimately influences phenotypic expression and fitness. The dramatic effects of bottlenecks on overall genetic diversity have been well studied, but relatively little is known about how dominance and demographic events like bottlenecks can impact additive genetic variance. Herein, we critically examine how the degree of dominance among alleles affects additive genetic variance after a bottleneck. We first review and synthesize studies that document the impact of empirical bottlenecks on dominance variance. We then extend earlier work by elaborating on two theoretical models that illustrate the relationship between dominance and the potential increase in additive genetic variance immediately following a bottleneck. Furthermore, we investigate the parameters that influence the maximum level of genetic variation (associated with adaptive potential) after a bottleneck, including the number of founding individuals. Finally, we validated our methods using forward-time population genetic simulations of loci with varying dominance and selection levels. The fate of non-additive genetic variation following bottlenecks could have important implications for conservation and management efforts in a wide variety of taxa, and our work should help contextualize future studies (e.g., epistatic variance) in population genomics.

Inferring the distribution of fitness effects in patient-sampled and experimental virus populations: two case studies

We here propose an analysis pipeline for inferring the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) from either patient-sampled or experimentally-evolved viral populations, that explicitly accounts for non-Wright-Fisher and non-equilibrium population dynamics inherent to pathogens. We examine the performance of this approach via extensive power and performance analyses, and highlight two illustrative applications - one from an experimentally-passaged RNA virus, and the other from a clinically-sampled DNA virus. Finally, we discuss how such DFE inference may shed light on major research questions in virus evolution, ranging from a quantification of the population genetic processes governing genome size, to the role of Hill-Robertson interference in dictating adaptive outcomes, to the potential design of novel therapeutic approaches to eradicate within-patient viral populations via induced mutational meltdown.

Mutation bias reflects natural selection in Arabidopsis thaliana

Since the first half of the twentieth century, evolutionary theory has been dominated by the idea that mutations occur randomly with respect to their consequences1. Here we test this assumption with large surveys of de novo mutations in the plant Arabidopsis thaliana. In contrast to expectations, we find that mutations occur less often in functionally constrained regions of the genome-mutation frequency is reduced by half inside gene bodies and by two-thirds in essential genes. With independent genomic mutation datasets, including from the largest Arabidopsis mutation accumulation experiment conducted to date, we demonstrate that epigenomic and physical features explain over 90% of variance in the genome-wide pattern of mutation bias surrounding genes. Observed mutation frequencies around genes in turn accurately predict patterns of genetic polymorphisms in natural Arabidopsis accessions (r = 0.96). That mutation bias is the primary force behind patterns of sequence evolution around genes in natural accessions is supported by analyses of allele frequencies. Finally, we find that genes subject to stronger purifying selection have a lower mutation rate. We conclude that epigenome-associated mutation bias2 reduces the occurrence of deleterious mutations in Arabidopsis, challenging the prevailing paradigm that mutation is a directionless force in evolution.

Soft selective sweeps: Addressing new definitions, evaluating competing models, and interpreting empirical outliers

The ability to accurately identify and quantify genetic signatures associated with soft selective sweeps based on patterns of nucleotide variation has remained controversial. We here provide counter viewpoints to recent publications in PLOS Genetics that have argued not only for the statistical identifiability of soft selective sweeps, but also for their pervasive evolutionary role in both Drosophila and HIV populations. We present evidence that these claims owe to a lack of consideration of competing evolutionary models, unjustified interpretations of empirical outliers, as well as to new definitions of the processes themselves. Our results highlight the dangers of fitting evolutionary models based on hypothesized and episodic processes without properly first considering common processes and, more generally, of the tendency in certain research areas to view pervasive positive selection as a foregone conclusion.

Heterogeneity in effective size across the genome: effects on the inverse instantaneous coalescence rate (IICR) and implications for demographic inference under linked selection

The relative contribution of selection and neutrality in shaping species genetic diversity is one of the most central and controversial questions in evolutionary theory. Genomic data provide growing evidence that linked selection, i.e. the modification of genetic diversity at neutral sites through linkage with selected sites, might be pervasive over the genome. Several studies proposed that linked selection could be modeled as first approximation by a local reduction (e.g. purifying selection, selective sweeps) or increase (e.g. balancing selection) of effective population size (Ne). At the genome-wide scale, this leads to variations of Ne from one region to another, reflecting the heterogeneity of selective constraints and recombination rates between regions. We investigate here the consequences of such genomic variations of Ne on the genome-wide distribution of coalescence times. The underlying motivation concerns the impact of linked selection on demographic inference, because the distribution of coalescence times is at the heart of several important demographic inference approaches. Using the concept of inverse instantaneous coalescence rate, we demonstrate that in a panmictic population, linked selection always results in a spurious apparent decrease of Ne along time. Balancing selection has a particularly large effect, even when it concerns a very small part of the genome. We also study more general models including genuine population size changes, population structure or transient selection and find that the effect of linked selection can be significantly reduced by that of population structure. The models and conclusions presented here are also relevant to the study of other biological processes generating apparent variations of Ne along the genome.

Assessing model adequacy leads to more robust phylogeographic inference

Phylogeographic studies base inferences on large data sets and complex demographic models, but these models are applied in ways that could mislead researchers and compromise their inference. Researchers face three challenges associated with the use of models: (i) 'model selection', or the identification of an appropriate model for analysis; (ii) 'evaluation of analytical results', or the interpretation of the biological significance of the resulting parameter estimates, delimitations, and topologies; and (iii) 'model evaluation', or the use of statistical approaches to assess the fit of the model to the data. The field collectively invests most of its energy in point (ii) without considering the other points; we argue that attention to points (i) and (iii) is essential to phylogeographic inference.

Haplotype-based inference of the distribution of fitness effects

Recent genome sequencing studies with large sample sizes in humans have discovered a vast quantity of low-frequency variants, providing an important source of information to analyze how selection is acting on human genetic variation. In order to estimate the strength of natural selection acting on low-frequency variants, we have developed a likelihood-based method that uses the lengths of pairwise identity-by-state between haplotypes carrying low-frequency variants. We show that in some non-equilibrium populations (such as those that have had recent population expansions) it is possible to distinguish between positive or negative selection acting on a set of variants. With our new framework, one can infer a fixed selection intensity acting on a set of variants at a particular frequency, or a distribution of selection coefficients for standing variants and new mutations. We show an application of our method to the UK10K phased haplotype dataset of individuals.

Local selection signals in the genome of Blue tits emphasize regulatory and neuronal evolution

Understanding the genomic landscape of adaptation is central to the understanding of microevolution in wild populations. Genomic targets of selection and the underlying genomic mechanisms of adaptation can be elucidated by genome-wide scans for past selective sweeps or by scans for direct fitness associations. We sequenced and assembled 150 haplotypes of 75 Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) of a single central-European population by a linked-read technology. We used these genome data in combination with coalescent simulations (1) to estimate an historical effective population size of ~250,000, which recently declined to ~10,000, and (2) to identify genome-wide distributed selective sweeps of beneficial variants most likely originating from standing genetic variation (soft sweeps). The genes linked to these soft sweeps, but also the ones linked to hard sweeps based on new beneficial mutants, showed a significant enrichment for functions associated with gene expression and transcription regulation. This emphasizes the importance of regulatory evolution in the population's adaptive history. Soft sweeps were further enriched for genes related to axon and synapse development, indicating the significance of neuronal connectivity changes in the brain potentially linked to behavioural adaptations. A previous scan of heterozygosity-fitness correlations revealed a consistent negative effect on arrival date at the breeding site for a single microsatellite in the MDGA2 gene. Here, we used the haplotype structure around this microsatellite to explain the effect as a local and direct outbreeding effect of a gene involved in synapse development.

OUP accepted manuscript

The nearly neutral theory is a common framework to describe natural selection at the molecular level. This theory emphasizes the importance of slightly deleterious mutations by recognizing their ability to segregate and eventually get fixed due to genetic drift in spite of the presence of purifying selection. As genetic drift is stronger in smaller than in larger populations, a correlation between population size and molecular measures of natural selection is expected within the nearly neutral theory. However, this hypothesis was originally formulated under equilibrium conditions. As most natural populations are not in equilibrium, testing the relationship empirically may lead to confounded outcomes. Demographic nonequilibria, for instance following a change in population size, are common scenarios that are expected to push the selection–drift relationship off equilibrium. By explicitly modeling the effects of a change in population size on allele frequency trajectories in the Poisson random field framework, we obtain analytical solutions of the nonstationary allele frequency spectrum. This enables us to derive exact results of measures of natural selection and effective population size in a demographic nonequilibrium. The study of their time-dependent relationship reveals a substantial deviation from the equilibrium selection–drift balance after a change in population size. Moreover, we show that the deviation is sensitive to the combination of different measures. These results therefore constitute relevant tools for empirical studies to choose suitable measures for investigating the selection–drift relationship in natural populations. Additionally, our new modeling approach extends existing population genetics theory and can serve as foundation for methodological developments.

Sporadic occurrence of recent selective sweeps from standing variation in humans as revealed by an approximate Bayesian computation approach

During their dispersals over the last 100,000 years, modern humans have been exposed to a large variety of environments, resulting in genetic adaptation. While genome-wide scans for the footprints of positive Darwinian selection have increased knowledge of genes and functions potentially involved in human local adaptation, they have globally produced evidence of a limited contribution of selective sweeps in humans. Conversely, studies based on machine learning algorithms suggest that recent sweeps from standing variation are widespread in humans, an observation that has been recently questioned. Here, we sought to formally quantify the number of recent selective sweeps in humans, by leveraging approximate Bayesian computation and whole-genome sequence data. Our computer simulations revealed suitable ABC estimations, regardless of the frequency of the selected alleles at the onset of selection and the completion of sweeps. Under a model of recent selection from standing variation, we inferred that an average of 68 (from 56 to 79) and 140 (from 94 to 198) sweeps occurred over the last 100,000 years of human history, in African and Eurasian populations, respectively. The former estimation is compatible with human adaptation rates estimated since divergence with chimps, and reveals numbers of sweeps per generation per site in the range of values estimated in Drosophila. Our results confirm the rarity of selective sweeps in humans and show a low contribution of sweeps from standing variation to recent human adaptation.

Revisiting the notion of deleterious sweeps

It has previously been shown that, conditional on its fixation, the time to fixation of a semi-dominant deleterious autosomal mutation in a randomly mating population is the same as that of an advantageous mutation. This result implies that deleterious mutations could generate selective sweep-like effects. Although their fixation probabilities greatly differ, the much larger input of deleterious relative to beneficial mutations suggests that this phenomenon could be important. We here examine how the fixation of mildly deleterious mutations affects levels and patterns of polymorphism at linked sites-both in the presence and absence of interference amongst deleterious mutations-and how this class of sites may contribute to divergence between-populations and species. We find that, while deleterious fixations are unlikely to represent a significant proportion of outliers in polymorphism-based genomic scans within populations, minor shifts in the frequencies of deleterious mutations can influence the proportions of private variants and the value of FST after a recent population split. As sites subject to deleterious mutations are necessarily found in functional genomic regions, interpretations in terms of recurrent positive selection may require reconsideration.

Effects of Selection at Linked Sites on Patterns of Genetic Variability

Patterns of variation and evolution at a given site in a genome can be strongly influenced by the effects of selection at genetically linked sites. In particular, the recombination rates of genomic regions correlate with their amount of within-population genetic variability, the degree to which the frequency distributions of DNA sequence variants differ from their neutral expectations, and the levels of adaptation of their functional components. We review the major population genetic processes that are thought to lead to these patterns, focusing on their effects on patterns of variability: selective sweeps, background selection, associative overdominance, and Hill–Robertson interference among deleterious mutations. We emphasize the difficulties in distinguishing among the footprints of these processes and disentangling them from the effects of purely demographic factors such as population size changes. We also discuss how interactions between selective and demographic processes can significantly affect patterns of variability within genomes.

Sweeps in time: leveraging the joint distribution of branch lengths

Current methods of identifying positively selected regions in the genome are limited in two key ways: the underlying models cannot account for the timing of adaptive events and the comparison between models of selective sweeps and sequence data is generally made via simple summaries of genetic diversity. Here, we develop a tractable method of describing the effect of positive selection on the genealogical histories in the surrounding genome, explicitly modeling both the timing and context of an adaptive event. In addition, our framework allows us to go beyond analyzing polymorphism data via the site frequency spectrum or summaries thereof and instead leverage information contained in patterns of linked variants. Tests on both simulations and a human data example, as well as a comparison to SweepFinder2, show that even with very small sample sizes, our analytic framework has higher power to identify old selective sweeps and to correctly infer both the time and strength of selection. Finally, we derived the marginal distribution of genealogical branch lengths at a locus affected by selection acting at a linked site. This provides a much-needed link between our analytic understanding of the effects of sweeps on sequence variation and recent advances in simulation and heuristic inference procedures that allow researchers to examine the sequence of genealogical histories along the genome.

Evidence for a force favoring GC over AT at short intronic sites in Drosophila simulans and Drosophila melanogaster

Population genetics studies often make use of a class of nucleotide site free from selective pressures, in order to make inferences about population size changes or natural selection at other sites. If such neutral sites can be identified, they offer the opportunity to avoid any confounding effects of selection. Here, we investigate evolution at putatively neutrally evolving short intronic sites in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans, in order to understand the properties of spontaneous mutations and the extent of GC-biased gene conversion in these species. Use of data on the genetics of natural populations is advantageous because it integrates information from large numbers of individuals over long timescales. In agreement with direct evidence from observations of spontaneous mutations in Drosophila, we find a bias in the spectrum of mutations toward AT basepairs. In addition, we find that this bias is stronger in the D. melanogaster lineage than in the D. simulans lineage. The evidence for GC-biased gene conversion in Drosophila has been equivocal. Here, we provide evidence for a weak force favoring GC in both species, which is correlated with the GC content of introns and is stronger in D. simulans than in D. melanogaster.

Demographic modeling informs functional connectivity and management interventions in Graham’s beardtongue

Functional connectivity (i.e., the movement of individuals across a landscape) is essential for the maintenance of genetic variation and persistence of rare species. However, illuminating the processes influencing functional connectivity and ultimately translating this knowledge into management practice remains a fundamental challenge. Here, we combine various population structure analyses with pairwise, population-specific demographic modeling to investigate historical functional connectivity in Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii), a rare plant narrowly distributed across a dryland region of the western US. While principal component and population structure analyses indicated an isolation-by-distance pattern of differentiation across the species’ range, spatial inferences of effective migration exposed an abrupt shift in population ancestry near the range center. To understand these seemingly conflicting patterns, we tested various models of historical gene flow and found evidence for recent admixture (~ 3400 generations ago) between populations near the range center. This historical perspective reconciles population structure patterns and suggests management efforts should focus on maintaining connectivity between these previously isolated lineages to promote the ongoing transfer of genetic variation. Beyond providing species-specific knowledge to inform management options, our study highlights how understanding demographic history may be critical to guide conservation efforts when interpreting population genetic patterns and inferring functional connectivity.

The genetic architecture of temperature adaptation is shaped by population ancestry and not by selection regime

Background

Understanding the genetic architecture of temperature adaptation is key for characterizing and predicting the effect of climate change on natural populations. One particularly promising approach is Evolve and Resequence, which combines advantages of experimental evolution such as time series, replicate populations, and controlled environmental conditions, with whole genome sequencing. Recent analysis of replicate populations from two different Drosophila simulans founder populations, which were adapting to the same novel hot environment, uncovered very different architectures—either many selection targets with large heterogeneity among replicates or fewer selection targets with a consistent response among replicates.

Results

Here, we expose the founder population from Portugal to a cold temperature regime. Although almost no selection targets are shared between the hot and cold selection regime, the adaptive architecture was similar. We identify a moderate number of targets under strong selection (19 selection targets, mean selection coefficient = 0.072) and parallel responses in the cold evolved replicates. This similarity across different environments indicates that the adaptive architecture depends more on the ancestry of the founder population than the specific selection regime.

Conclusions

These observations will have broad implications for the correct interpretation of the genomic responses to a changing climate in natural populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13059-021-02425-9.

Genomic signatures of admixture and selection are shared among populations of Zaprionus indianus across the western hemisphere

Introduced species have become an increasingly common component of biological communities around the world. A central goal in invasion biology is therefore to identify the demographic and evolutionary factors that underlie successful introductions. Here we use whole genome sequences, collected from populations in the native and introduced range of the African fig fly, Zaprionus indianus, to quantify genetic relationships among them, identify potential sources of the introductions, and test for selection at different spatial scales. We find that geographically widespread populations in the western hemisphere are genetically more similar to each other than to lineages sampled across Africa, and that these populations share a mixture of alleles derived from differentiated African lineages. Using patterns of allele‐sharing and demographic modelling we show that Z. indinaus have undergone a single expansion across the western hemisphere with admixture between African lineages predating this expansion. We also find support for selection that is shared across populations in the western hemisphere, and in some cases, with a subset of African populations. This suggests either that parallel selection has acted across a large part of Z. indianus's introduced range; or, more parsimoniously, that Z. indianus has experienced selection early on during (or prior‐to) its expansion into the western hemisphere. We suggest that the range expansion of Z. indianus has been facilitated by admixture and selection, and that management of this invasion could focus on minimizing future admixture by controlling the movement of individuals within this region rather than between the western and eastern hemisphere.

Inferring genome-wide correlations of mutation fitness effects between populations

The effect of a mutation on fitness may differ between populations depending on environmental and genetic context, but little is known about the factors that underlie such differences. To quantify genome-wide correlations in mutation fitness effects, we developed a novel concept called a joint distribution of fitness effects (DFE) between populations. We then proposed a new statistic w to measure the DFE correlation between populations. Using simulation, we showed that inferring the DFE correlation from the joint allele frequency spectrum is statistically precise and robust. Using population genomic data, we inferred DFE correlations of populations in humans, Drosophila melanogaster, and wild tomatoes. In these species, we found that the overall correlation of the joint DFE was inversely related to genetic differentiation. In humans and D. melanogaster, deleterious mutations had a lower DFE correlation than tolerated mutations, indicating a complex joint DFE. Altogether, the DFE correlation can be reliably inferred, and it offers extensive insight into the genetics of population divergence.

The genomic history of the Aegean palatial civilizations

The Cycladic, the Minoan, and the Helladic (Mycenaean) cultures define the Bronze Age (BA) of Greece. Urbanism, complex social structures, craft and agricultural specialization, and the earliest forms of writing characterize this iconic period. We sequenced six Early to Middle BA whole genomes, along with 11 mitochondrial genomes, sampled from the three BA cultures of the Aegean Sea. The Early BA (EBA) genomes are homogeneous and derive most of their ancestry from Neolithic Aegeans, contrary to earlier hypotheses that the Neolithic-EBA cultural transition was due to massive population turnover. EBA Aegeans were shaped by relatively small-scale migration from East of the Aegean, as evidenced by the Caucasus-related ancestry also detected in Anatolians. In contrast, Middle BA (MBA) individuals of northern Greece differ from EBA populations in showing ∼50% Pontic-Caspian Steppe-related ancestry, dated at ca. 2,600-2,000 BCE. Such gene flow events during the MBA contributed toward shaping present-day Greek genomes.

Limits and convergence properties of the sequentially Markovian coalescent

Several methods based on the sequentially Markovian coalescent (SMC) make use of full genome sequence data from samples to infer population demographic history including past changes in population size, admixture, migration events and population structure. More recently, the original theoretical framework has been extended to allow the simultaneous estimation of population size changes along with other life history traits such as selfing or seed banking. The latter developments enhance the applicability of SMC methods to nonmodel species. Although convergence proofs have been given using simulated data in a few specific cases, an in-depth investigation of the limitations of SMC methods is lacking. In order to explore such limits, we first develop a tool inferring the best case convergence of SMC methods assuming the true underlying coalescent genealogies are known. This tool can be used to quantify the amount and type of information that can be confidently retrieved from given data sets prior to the analysis of the real data. Second, we assess the inference accuracy when the assumptions of SMC approaches are violated due to departures from the model, namely the presence of transposable elements, variable recombination and mutation rates along the sequence, and SNP calling errors. Third, we deliver a new interpretation of SMC methods by highlighting the importance of the transition matrix, which we argue can be used as a set of summary statistics in other statistical inference methods, uncoupling the SMC from hidden Markov models (HMMs). We finally offer recommendations to better apply SMC methods and build adequate data sets under budget constraints.

Studying models of balancing selection using phase-type theory

Balancing selection (BLS) is the evolutionary force that maintains high levels of genetic variability in many important genes. To further our understanding of its evolutionary significance, we analyze models with BLS acting on a biallelic locus: an equilibrium model with long-term BLS, a model with long-term BLS and recent changes in population size, and a model of recent BLS. Using phase-type theory, a mathematical tool for analyzing continuous time Markov chains with an absorbing state, we examine how BLS affects polymorphism patterns in linked neutral regions, as summarized by nucleotide diversity, the expected number of segregating sites, the site frequency spectrum, and the level of linkage disequilibrium (LD). Long-term BLS affects polymorphism patterns in a relatively small genomic neighborhood, and such selection targets are easier to detect when the equilibrium frequencies of the selected variants are close to 50%, or when there has been a population size reduction. For a new mutation subject to BLS, its initial increase in frequency in the population causes linked neutral regions to have reduced diversity, an excess of both high and low frequency derived variants, and elevated LD with the selected locus. These patterns are similar to those produced by selective sweeps, but the effects of recent BLS are weaker. Nonetheless, compared to selective sweeps, nonequilibrium polymorphism and LD patterns persist for a much longer period under recent BLS, which may increase the chance of detecting such selection targets. An R package for analyzing these models, among others (e.g., isolation with migration), is available.

Demographic inference

In the last ten years, the next generation sequencing revolution has multiplied the amount of genetic data for many organisms by orders of magnitude. This has not only led to evolutionary biologists having more data available but also to new and different types of data: from a handful of allozyme markers in the 70s, we got dozens of restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) in the 80s, hundreds of microsatellites in the 90s, thousands to hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 2000s, a few full genomes in the 2010s, and thousands of full genomes in the 2020s. These data have provided information not only on the genetic diversity and evolution of the organisms studied but also on genome-wide patterns of selection, linkage disequilibrium, as well as recombination and mutation processes. Below, we will describe how these new genomic data can be used to infer the past demographic history of populations.

The Impact of Purifying and Background Selection on the Inference of Population History: Problems and Prospects

Current procedures for inferring population history generally assume complete neutrality—that is, they neglect both direct selection and the effects of selection on linked sites. We here examine how the presence of direct purifying selection and background selection may bias demographic inference by evaluating two commonly-used methods (MSMC and fastsimcoal2), specifically studying how the underlying shape of the distribution of fitness effects and the fraction of directly selected sites interact with demographic parameter estimation. The results show that, even after masking functional genomic regions, background selection may cause the mis-inference of population growth under models of both constant population size and decline. This effect is amplified as the strength of purifying selection and the density of directly selected sites increases, as indicated by the distortion of the site frequency spectrum and levels of nucleotide diversity at linked neutral sites. We also show how simulated changes in background selection effects caused by population size changes can be predicted analytically. We propose a potential method for correcting for the mis-inference of population growth caused by selection. By treating the distribution of fitness effect as a nuisance parameter and averaging across all potential realizations, we demonstrate that even directly selected sites can be used to infer demographic histories with reasonable accuracy.

Polygenic Selection within a Single Generation Leads to Subtle Divergence among Ecological NichesINc

Selection on standing genetic variation may be effective enough to allow for adaptation to distinct niche environments within a single generation. Minor allele frequency changes at multiple, redundant loci of small effect can produce remarkable phenotypic shifts. Yet, demonstrating rapid adaptation via polygenic selection in the wild remains challenging. Here we harness natural replicate populations that experience similar selection pressures and harbor high within-, yet negligible among-population genetic variation. Such populations can be found among the teleost Fundulus heteroclitus that inhabits marine estuaries characterized by high environmental heterogeneity. We identify 10,861 single nucleotide polymorphisms in F. heteroclitus that belong to a single, panmictic population yet reside in environmentally distinct niches (one coastal basin and three replicate tidal ponds). By sampling at two time points within a single generation, we quantify both allele frequency change within as well as spatial divergence among niche subpopulations. We observe few individually significant allele frequency changes yet find that the "number" of moderate changes exceeds the neutral expectation by 10-100%. We find allele frequency changes to be significantly concordant in both direction and magnitude among all niche subpopulations, suggestive of parallel selection. In addition, within-generation allele frequency changes generate subtle but significant divergence among niches, indicative of local adaptation. Although we cannot distinguish between selection and genotype-dependent migration as drivers of within-generation allele frequency changes, the trait/s determining fitness and/or migration likelihood appear to be polygenic. In heterogeneous environments, polygenic selection and polygenic, genotype-dependent migration offer conceivable mechanisms for within-generation, local adaptation to distinct niches.

The impact of purifying and background selection on the inference of population history: problems and prospects

Current procedures for inferring population history generally assume complete neutrality - that is, they neglect both direct selection and the effects of selection on linked sites. We here examine how the presence of direct purifying selection and background selection may bias demographic inference by evaluating two commonly-used methods (MSMC and fastsimcoal2), specifically studying how the underlying shape of the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) and the fraction of directly selected sites interact with demographic parameter estimation. The results show that, even after masking functional genomic regions, background selection may cause the mis-inference of population growth under models of both constant population size and decline. This effect is amplified as the strength of purifying selection and the density of directly selected sites increases, as indicated by the distortion of the site frequency spectrum and levels of nucleotide diversity at linked neutral sites. We also show how simulated changes in background selection effects caused by population size changes can be predicted analytically. We propose a potential method for correcting for the mis-inference of population growth caused by selection. By treating the DFE as a nuisance parameter and averaging across all potential realizations, we demonstrate that even directly selected sites can be used to infer demographic histories with reasonable accuracy.

DILS: Demographic inferences with linked selection by using ABC

We present DILS, a deployable statistical analysis platform for conducting demographic inferences with linked selection from population genomic data using an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. DILS takes as input single-population or two-population data sets (multilocus fasta sequences) and performs three types of analyses in a hierarchical manner, identifying: (a) the best demographic model to study the importance of gene flow and population size change on the genetic patterns of polymorphism and divergence, (b) the best genomic model to determine whether the effective size Ne and migration rate N, m are heterogeneously distributed along the genome (implying linked selection) and (c) loci in genomic regions most associated with barriers to gene flow. Also available via a Web interface, an objective of DILS is to facilitate collaborative research in speciation genomics. Here, we show the performance and limitations of DILS by using simulations and finally apply the method to published data on a divergence continuum composed by 28 pairs of Mytilus mussel populations/species.

How Good Are Predictions of the Effects of Selective Sweeps on Levels of Neutral Diversity?

Selective sweeps are thought to play a significant role in shaping patterns of variability across genomes; accurate predictions of their effects are, therefore, important for understanding these patterns. A commonly used model of selective sweeps assumes that alleles sampled at the end of a sweep, and that fail to recombine with wild-type haplotypes during the sweep, coalesce instantaneously, leading to a simple expression for sweep effects on diversity. It is shown here that there can be a significant probability that a pair of alleles sampled at the end of a sweep coalesce during the sweep before a recombination event can occur, reducing their expected coalescent time below that given by the simple approximation. Expressions are derived for the expected reductions in pairwise neutral diversities caused by both single and recurrent sweeps in the presence of such within-sweep coalescence, although the effects of multiple recombination events during a sweep are only treated heuristically. The accuracies of the resulting expressions were checked against the results of simulations. For even moderate ratios of the recombination rate to the selection coefficient, the simple approximation can be substantially inaccurate. The selection model used here can be applied to favorable mutations with arbitrary dominance coefficients, to sex-linked loci with sex-specific selection coefficients, and to inbreeding populations. Using the results from this model, the expected differences between the levels of variability on X chromosomes and autosomes with selection at linked sites are discussed, and compared with data on a population of Drosophila melanogaster.

Imposed mutational meltdown as an antiviral strategy

Following widespread infections of the most recent coronavirus known to infect humans, SARS‐CoV‐2, attention has turned to potential therapeutic options. With no drug or vaccine yet approved, one focal point of research is to evaluate the potential value of repurposing existing antiviral treatments, with the logical strategy being to identify at least a short‐term intervention to prevent within‐patient progression, while long‐term vaccine strategies unfold. Here, we offer an evolutionary/population‐genetic perspective on one approach that may overwhelm the capacity for pathogen defense (i.e., adaptation) – induced mutational meltdown – providing an overview of key concepts, review of previous theoretical and experimental work of relevance, and guidance for future research. Applied with appropriate care, including target specificity, induced mutational meltdown may provide a general, rapidly implemented approach for the within‐patient eradication of a wide range of pathogens or other undesirable microorganisms.