Potentially avoidable hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries with Alzheimer's disease and related disorders

Composite risk scores for predicting dementia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A key priority in dementia research is the development of tools to identify individuals at high risk of dementia. This is important to prevent or delay dementia onset and as we move towards personalized medicine.

RECENT FINDINGS

Numerous models (n > 50) for predicting dementia have been developed. These vary in the number (0 to 20+) and type (e.g. demographics, health, neuropsychological, and genetic) of predictor variables used for risk calculation, follow-up length (1-20 years) and age at screening (mid vs laterlife). Evaluation of the models shows that most have moderate-to-poor predictive accuracy. Few have been externally validated, raising questions about their generalizability outside the cohorts from which they were developed. The results highlight that if additional models are proposed the field will be overwhelmed with many competing risk models, making it difficult to reach consensus on which is best.

SUMMARY

Numerous models for predicting dementia have been proposed but are limited by a lack of external validation and evaluation of economic impact. Innovative methods and data designs may be needed to improve derivation of dementia risk scores. Having a method for predicting dementia risk could transform medical research and allow for earlier testing of intervention strategies.

2015 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This report discusses the public health impact of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality rates, costs of care and the overall effect on caregivers and society. It also examines the challenges encountered by health care providers when disclosing an AD diagnosis to patients and caregivers. An estimated 5.3 million Americans have AD; 5.1 million are age 65 years, and approximately 200,000 are age <65 years and have younger onset AD. By mid-century, the number of people living with AD in the United States is projected to grow by nearly 10 million, fueled in large part by the aging baby boom generation. Today, someone in the country develops AD every 67 seconds. By 2050, one new case of AD is expected to develop every 33 seconds, resulting in nearly 1 million new cases per year, and the estimated prevalence is expected to range from 11 million to 16 million. In 2013, official death certificates recorded 84,767 deaths from AD, making AD the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans age 65 years. Between 2000 and 2013, deaths resulting from heart disease, stroke and prostate cancer decreased 14%, 23% and 11%, respectively, whereas deaths from AD increased 71%. The actual number of deaths to which AD contributes (or deaths with AD) is likely much larger than the number of deaths from AD recorded on death certificates. In 2015, an estimated 700,000 Americans age 65 years will die with AD, and many of them will die from complications caused by AD. In 2014, more than 15 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 17.9 billion hours of care to people with AD and other dementias, a contribution valued at more than $217 billion. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 years with AD and other dementias are more than two and a half times as great as payments for all beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are 19 times as great. Total payments in 2015 for health care, long-term care and hospice services for people age 65 years with dementia are expected to be $226 billion. Among people with a diagnosis of AD or another dementia, fewer than half report having been told of the diagnosis by their health care provider. Though the benefits of a prompt, clear and accurate disclosure of an AD diagnosis are recognized by the medical profession, improvements to the disclosure process are needed. These improvements may require stronger support systems for health care providers and their patients.

Multimorbidity and Patient Safety Incidents in Primary Care: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is increasingly prevalent and represents a major challenge in primary care. Patients with multimorbidity are potentially more likely to experience safety incidents due to the complexity of their needs and frequency of their interactions with health services. However, rigorous syntheses of the link between patient safety incidents and multimorbidity are not available. This review examined the relationship between multimorbidity and patient safety incidents in primary care.

METHODS

We followed our published protocol (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42014007434). Medline, Embase and CINAHL were searched up to May 2015. Study design and quality were assessed. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for the associations between multimorbidity and two categories of patient safety outcomes: 'active patient safety incidents' (such as adverse drug events and medical complications) and 'precursors of safety incidents' (such as prescription errors, medication non-adherence, poor quality of care and diagnostic errors). Meta-analyses using random effects models were undertaken.

RESULTS

Eighty six relevant comparisons from 75 studies were included in the analysis. Meta-analysis demonstrated that physical-mental multimorbidity was associated with an increased risk for 'active patient safety incidents' (OR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.40 to 3.38) and 'precursors of safety incidents' (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.36 to 2.03). Physical multimorbidity was associated with an increased risk for active safety incidents (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45 to 1.80) but was not associated with precursors of safety incidents (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.13). Statistical heterogeneity was high and the methodological quality of the studies was generally low.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between multimorbidity and patient safety is complex, and varies by type of multimorbidity and type of safety incident. Our analyses suggest that multimorbidity involving mental health may be a key driver of safety incidents, which has important implication for the design and targeting of interventions to improve safety. High quality studies examining the mechanisms of patient safety incidents in patients with multimorbidity are needed, with the goal of promoting effective service delivery and ameliorating threats to safety in this group of patients.

Unintended benefits: the potential economic impact of addressing risk factors to prevent Alzheimer's disease

Certain chronic conditions appear to be modifiable risk factors of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. To understand the potential health and economic impacts of addressing those risk factors, we used data on a Medicare cohort to simulate four scenarios: a 10 percent reduction in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, respectively, and a 10 percent reduction in body mass index among beneficiaries who were overweight or obese. Our simulation demonstrated that reducing the prevalence of these conditions may yield "unintended benefits" by lowering the risk, delaying the onset, reducing the duration, and lowering the costs of dementia. More research is needed to clarify the exact relationship between various other chronic diseases and dementia. However, our findings highlight potential health gains and savings opportunities stemming from the better management of other conditions associated with dementia.

Use and cost of hospitalization in dementia: longitudinal results from a community-based study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to examine the relative contribution of functional impairment and cognitive deficits on risk of hospitalization and costs.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who participated in the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project (WHICAP) were followed approximately every 18 months for over 10 years (1805 never diagnosed with dementia during study period, 221 diagnosed with dementia at enrollment). Hospitalization and Medicare expenditures data (1999-2010) were obtained from Medicare claims. Multivariate analyses were conducted to examine (1) risk of all-cause hospitalizations, (2) hospitalizations from ambulatory care sensitive (ACSs) conditions, (3) hospital length of stay (LOS), and (4) Medicare expenditures. Propensity score matching methods were used to reduce observed differences between demented and non-demented groups at study enrollment. Analyses took into account repeated observations within each individual.

RESULTS

Compared to propensity-matched individuals without dementia, individuals with dementia had significantly higher risk for all-cause hospitalization, longer LOS, and higher Medicare expenditures. Functional and cognitive deficits were significantly associated with higher risks for hospitalizations, hospital LOS, and Medicare expenditures. Functional and cognitive deficits were associated with higher risks of for some ACS but not all admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

These results allow us to differentiate the impact of functional and cognitive deficits on hospitalizations. To develop strategies to reduce hospitalizations and expenditures, better understanding of which types of hospitalizations and which disease characteristics impact these outcomes will be critical.

Impact of the care coordination program "Partners in Dementia Care" on veterans' hospital admissions and emergency department visits

INTRODUCTION

"Partners in Dementia Care" (PDC) tested a care-coordination program based on partnerships between Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers and Alzheimer's Association chapters. The hypothesis posited PDC would reduce the likelihood and number of veterans' hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits, particularly for those with more cognitive impairment or behavioral symptoms.

METHODS

The sample included 328 veterans with dementia and their primary family or friend caregivers from five matched sites (two randomly selected treatment sites). Data came from VA records; supplemented by caregiver research interviews. Regression analyses using the likelihood and number of hospital and ED visits as outcomes tested for overall treatment-comparison group differences and statistical interactions with cognitive impairment and behavioral symptoms.

RESULTS

Consistent with the hypothesis, three significant interactions showed treatment-group veterans, with more cognitive impairment and behavioral symptoms, had fewer hospital admissions and ED visits than comparison-group veterans. There were no differences in the likelihood of hospital or ED use.

DISCUSSION

PDC, a low-cost program for veterans and caregivers, was effective in reducing the number, but not the likelihood, of hospital admissions and ED visits. Reductions in service use were greater when caregivers reported more difficulties with veterans' symptoms, which in the absence of PDC would place veterans at risk of being high-volume, high-cost service users.Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00291161.

The influence of primary care quality on hospital admissions for people with dementia in England: a regression analysis

OBJECTIVES

To test the impact of a UK pay-for-performance indicator, the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) dementia review, on three types of hospital admission for people with dementia: emergency admissions where dementia was the primary diagnosis; emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs); and elective admissions for cataract, hip replacement, hernia, prostate disease, or hearing loss.

METHODS

Count data regression analyses of hospital admissions from 8,304 English general practices from 2006/7 to 2010/11. We identified relevant admissions from national Hospital Episode Statistics and aggregated them to practice level. We merged these with practice-level data on the QOF dementia review. In the base case, the exposure measure was the reported QOF register. As dementia is commonly under-diagnosed, we tested a predicted practice register based on consensus estimates. We adjusted for practice characteristics including measures of deprivation and uptake of a social benefit to purchase care services (Attendance Allowance).

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, higher QOF achievement had no significant effect on any type of hospital admission. However, when the predicted register was used to account for under-diagnosis, a one-percentage point improvement in QOF achievement was associated with a small reduction in emergency admissions for both dementia (-0.1%; P=0.011) and ACSCs (-0.1%; P=0.001). In areas of greater deprivation, uptake of Attendance Allowance was consistently associated with significantly lower emergency admissions. In all analyses, practices with a higher proportion of nursing home patients had significantly lower admission rates for elective and emergency care.

CONCLUSION

In one of three analyses at practice level, the QOF review for dementia was associated with a small but significant reduction in unplanned hospital admissions. Given the rising prevalence of dementia, increasing pressures on acute hospital beds and poor outcomes associated with hospital stays for this patient group, this small change may be clinically and economically relevant.

Elevated Hospitalization Risk of Assisted Living Residents With Dementia in Alberta, Canada

OBJECTIVES

Assisted living (AL) is an increasingly used residential option for older adults with dementia; however, lower staffing rates and service availability raise concerns that such residents may be at increased risk for adverse outcomes. Our objectives were to determine the incidence of hospitalization over 1 year for dementia residents of designated AL (DAL) facilities, compared with long-term care (LTC) facilities, and identify resident- and facility-level predictors of hospitalization among DAL residents.

METHODS

Participants were 609 DAL (mean age 85.7 ± 6.6 years) and 691 LTC (86.4 ± 6.9 years) residents with dementia enrolled in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies. Research nurses completed a standardized comprehensive assessment of residents and interviewed family caregivers at baseline (2006-2008) and 1 year later. Standardized administrator interviews provided facility level data. Hospitalization was determined via linkage with the provincial Inpatient Discharge Abstract Database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of hospitalization.

RESULTS

The cumulative annual incidence of hospitalization was 38.6% (34.5%-42.7%) for DAL and 10.3% (8.0%-12.6%) for LTC residents with dementia. A significantly increased risk for hospitalization was observed for DAL residents aged 90+ years, with poor social relationships, less severe cognitive impairment, greater health instability, fatigue, high medication use (11+ medications), and 2+ hospitalizations in the preceding year. Residents from DAL facilities with a smaller number of spaces, no chain affiliation, and from specific health regions showed a higher risk of hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

DAL residents with dementia had a hospitalization rate almost 4-fold higher than LTC residents with dementia. Our findings raise questions about the ability of some AL facilities to adequately address the needs of cognitively impaired residents and highlight potential clinical, social, and policy areas for targeted interventions to reduce hospitalization risk.

A systematic review of intervention studies to prevent hospitalizations of community-dwelling older adults with dementia

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a systematic literature review to determine if there were any intervention strategies that had any measurable effect on acute-care hospitalizations among community-dwelling adults with dementia.

DESIGN

Studies were identified by a professional research librarian and content experts.

SETTING

Community dwelling.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were diagnosed with dementia, severity ranging from mild to severe, and were recruited from health care and community agencies.

MEASUREMENTS

A study met the inclusion criteria if it: (a) was published in English; (b) included a control or comparison group; (c) published outcome data from the intervention under study; (d) reported hospitalization as one of the outcomes; (e) included community-dwelling older adults; and (f) enrolled participants with dementia. Ten studies met all inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Of the 10 studies included, most assessed health services use (ie, hospitalizations) as a secondary outcome. Participants were recruited from a range of health care and community agencies, and most were diagnosed with dementia with severity ratings ranging from mild to severe. Most intervention strategies consisted of face-to-face assessments of the persons living with dementia, their caregivers, and the development and implementation of a care plan. A significant reduction in hospital admissions was not found in any of the included studies, although 1 study did observe a reduction in hospital days.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of studies included hospitalizations as a secondary outcome. Only 1 intervention was found to have an effect on hospitalizations. Future work would benefit from strategies specifically designed to reduce and prevent acute hospitalizations in persons with dementia.

Hospital admissions, outpatient visits and healthcare costs of community-dwellers with Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Detailed data on the health care service use of people with Alzheimer's disease (AD) are scarce.

METHODS

We assessed the health care service use of all community-dwelling persons with clinically verified AD diagnosis, residing in Finland on December 31, 2005 (n = 27,948) in comparison to matched cohort without AD. Hospitalization data during 2006-2009 were extracted from the National Hospital Discharge Register.

RESULTS

Comorbidity-adjusted incidence rate ratios; IRR (95% CI) were 1.25 (1.22-1.28) for inpatient admissions and 0.72 (0.68-0.77) for outpatient visits. People with AD had more general health care admissions (IRR, 95%CI 1.73, 1.67-1.80) but less admissions to specialty units 0.82 (0.79-0.85) than the non-AD group, with psychiatry being the only specialty with more admissions in the AD group. People with AD had 16 more hospital days/person-year.

CONCLUSIONS

It would be important to assess whether inpatient hospitalizations of AD patients could be decreased by better targeting of outpatient services and whether other conditions are underdiagnosed or undertreated among persons with AD.

2014 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This report discusses the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality rates, costs of care, and overall effect on caregivers and society. It also examines the impact of AD on women compared with men. An estimated 5.2 million Americans have AD. Approximately 200,000 people younger than 65 years with AD comprise the younger onset AD population; 5 million are age 65 years or older. By mid-century, fueled in large part by the baby boom generation, the number of people living with AD in the United States is projected to grow by about 9 million. Today, someone in the country develops AD every 67 seconds. By 2050, one new case of AD is expected to develop every 33 seconds, or nearly a million new cases per year, and the total estimated prevalence is expected to be 13.8 million. In 2010, official death certificates recorded 83,494 deaths from AD, making AD the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans aged 65 years or older. Between 2000 and 2010, the proportion of deaths resulting from heart disease, stroke, and prostate cancer decreased 16%, 23%, and 8%, respectively, whereas the proportion resulting from AD increased 68%. The actual number of deaths to which AD contributes (or deaths with AD) is likely much larger than the number of deaths from AD recorded on death certificates. In 2014, an estimated 700,000 older Americans will die with AD, and many of them will die from complications caused by AD. In 2013, more than 15 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 17.7 billion hours of care to people with AD and other dementias, a contribution valued at more than $220 billion. Average per-person Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries aged 65 years and older with AD and other dementias are more than two and a half times as great as payments for all beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are 19 times as great. Total payments in 2014 for health care, long-term care, and hospice services for people aged 65 years and older with dementia are expected to be $214 billion. AD takes a stronger toll on women than men. More women than men develop the disease, and women are more likely than men to be informal caregivers for someone with AD or another dementia. As caregiving responsibilities become more time consuming and burdensome or extend for prolonged durations, women assume an even greater share of the caregiving burden. For every man who spends 21 to more than 60 hours per week as a caregiver, there are 2.1 women. For every man who lives with the care recipient and provides around-the-clock care, there are 2.5 women. In addition, for every man who has provided caregiving assistance for more than 5 years, there are 2.3 women.

Development and validation of a brief dementia screening indicator for primary care

BACKGROUND

Detection of "any cognitive impairment" is mandated as part of the Medicare annual wellness visit, but screening all patients may result in excessive false positives.

METHODS

We developed and validated a brief Dementia Screening Indicator using data from four large, ongoing cohort studies (the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS]; the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]; the Health and Retirement Study [HRS]; the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging [SALSA]) to help clinicians identify a subgroup of high-risk patients to target for cognitive screening.

RESULTS

The final Dementia Screening Indicator included age (1 point/year; ages, 65-79 years), less than 12 years of education (9 points), stroke (6 points), diabetes mellitus (3 points), body mass index less than 18.5 kg/m(2) (8 points), requiring assistance with money or medications (10 points), and depressive symptoms (6 points). Accuracy was good across the cohorts (Harrell's C statistic: CHS, 0.68; FHS, 0.77; HRS, 0.76; SALSA, 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

The Dementia Screening Indicator is a simple tool that may be useful in primary care settings to identify high-risk patients to target for cognitive screening.