Circadian and circaseptan rhythms in human epilepsy: a retrospective cohort study

Evidence of state-dependence in the effectiveness of responsive neurostimulation for seizure modulation

Background:

An implanted device for brain-responsive neurostimulation (RNS^® System) is approved as an effective treatment to reduce seizures in adults with medically-refractory focal epilepsy. Clinical trials of the RNS System demonstrate population-level reduction in average seizure frequency, but therapeutic response is highly variable.

Hypothesis:

Recent evidence links seizures to cyclical fluctuations in underlying risk. We tested the hypothesis that effectiveness of responsive neurostimulation varies based on current state within cyclical risk fluctuations.

Methods:

We analyzed retrospective data from 25 adults with medically-refractory focal epilepsy implanted with the RNS System. Chronic electrocorticography was used to record electrographic seizures, and hidden Markov models decoded seizures into fluctuations in underlying risk. State-dependent associations of RNS System stimulation parameters with changes in risk were estimated.

Results:

Higher charge density was associated with improved outcomes, both for remaining in a low seizure risk state and for transitioning from a high to a low seizure risk state. The effect of stimulation frequency depended on initial seizure risk state: when starting in a low risk state, higher stimulation frequencies were associated with remaining in a low risk state, but when starting in a high risk state, lower stimulation frequencies were associated with transition to a low risk state. Findings were consistent across bipolar and monopolar stimulation configurations.

Conclusion:

The impact of RNS on seizure frequency exhibits state-dependence, such that stimulation parameters which are effective in one seizure risk state may not be effective in another. These findings represent conceptual advances in understanding the therapeutic mechanism of RNS, and directly inform current practices of RNS tuning and the development of next-generation neurostimulation systems.

Temporal patterns in the first unprovoked seizure

OBJECTIVE

Cyclic phenomena in epilepsy are well recognized. We investigated a multicenter cohort of unprovoked first seizure presentations to determine whether seizures have a preponderance to occur in: a particular time of the day, a particular day of the week, a particular month of the year, day time versus night time, and wakefulness versus sleep.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied adults who presented with a first-ever unprovoked seizure to the First Seizure Clinic at two tertiary centers in Australia. Seizure onset time was obtained from the emergency department and ambulance documentations. Electro-clinical and neuroimaging findings were reviewed. We used histograms and Poisson regression modeling to determine whether seizures have a preponderance to occur at a particular time and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR). We performed further analysis on patients with "first seizure epilepsy" and "first seizure not epilepsy" based on the ILAE criteria for a diagnosis of epilepsy after a single unprovoked seizure, as well as comparing patients that could be categorized as having a generalized-onset seizure versus those with focal-onset seizures.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1724 patients (38% females; age range 14-97 yr, median 39 yr), of whom 18% had epileptiform abnormalities on EEG and potentially epileptogenic lesions were detected on neuroimaging in 28%. Whole cohort analysis shows the incidence rate ratios (IRR) of seizures varied significantly across the 24-hour clock-time of the day (p < 0.001), peaking at hour 12 (IRR 3.18). The first unprovoked seizure was significantly less likely to be reported during the night (IRR 0.61, p < 0.001) and during sleep (IRR 0.29, p < 0.001). Both the "first seizure epilepsy" and "first seizure not epilepsy" subgroups' analysis demonstrated similar patterns. An infraradian pattern was also noted with seizures most likely to occur in May (IRR 1.29, p = 0.02). Both "first seizure epilepsy - generalized" and "first seizure epilepsy - focal" groups had a preponderance for seizures to occur during the day versus night and wakefulness as opposed to sleep, but the association was more robust for generalized seizures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that temporal patterns are seen in patients with first-ever unprovoked seizures, including those that meet contemporary criteria for epilepsy. These results raise the possibility that first unprovoked seizures have intrinsic rhythmicity similar to epileptic seizures.

Cycles of self-reported seizure likelihood correspond to yield of diagnostic epilepsy monitoring

OBJECTIVE

Video-electroencephalography (vEEG) is an important component of epilepsy diagnosis and management. Nevertheless, inpatient vEEG monitoring fails to capture seizures in up to one third of patients. We hypothesized that personalized seizure forecasts could be used to optimize the timing of vEEG.

METHODS

We used a database of ambulatory vEEG studies to select a cohort with linked electronic seizure diaries of more than 20 reported seizures over at least 8 weeks. The total cohort included 48 participants. Diary seizure times were used to detect individuals' multiday seizure cycles and estimate times of high seizure risk. We compared whether estimated seizure risk was significantly different between conclusive and inconclusive vEEGs, and between vEEG with and without recorded epileptic activity. vEEGs were conducted prior to self-reported seizures; hence, the study aimed to provide a retrospective proof of concept that cycles of seizure risk were correlated with vEEG outcomes.

RESULTS

Estimated seizure risk was significantly higher for conclusive vEEGs and vEEGs with epileptic activity. Across all cycle strengths, the average time in high risk during vEEG was 29.1% compared with 14% for the conclusive/inconclusive groups and 32% compared to 18% for the epileptic activity/no epileptic activity groups. On average, 62.5% of the cohort showed increased time in high risk during their previous vEEG when epileptic activity was recorded (compared to 28% of the cohort where epileptic activity was not recorded). For conclusive vEEGs, 50% of the cohort had increased time in high risk, compared to 21.5% for inconclusive vEEGs.

SIGNIFICANCE

Although retrospective, this study provides a proof of principle that scheduling monitoring times based on personalized seizure risk forecasts can improve the yield of vEEG. Forecasts can be developed at low cost from mobile seizure diaries. A simple scheduling tool to improve diagnostic outcomes may reduce cost and risks associated with delayed or missed diagnosis in epilepsy.

Chance and risk in epilepsy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Epilepsy is a dynamical disorder of the brain characterized by sudden, seemingly unpredictable transitions to the ictal state. When and how these transitions occur remain unresolved questions in neurology.

RECENT FINDINGS

Modelling work based on dynamical systems theory proposed that a slow control parameter is necessary to explain the transition between interictal and ictal states. Recently, converging evidence from chronic EEG datasets unravelled the existence of cycles of epileptic brain activity at multiple timescales - circadian, multidien (over multiple days) and circannual - which could reflect cyclical changes in a slow control parameter. This temporal structure of epilepsy has theoretical implications and argues against the conception of seizures as completely random events. The practical significance of cycles in epilepsy is highlighted by their predictive value in computational models for seizure forecasting.

SUMMARY

The canonical randomness of seizures is being reconsidered in light of cycles of brain activity discovered through chronic EEG. This paradigm shift motivates development of next-generation devices to track more closely fluctuations in epileptic brain activity that determine time-varying seizure risk.

Does glucose influence multidien cycles of interictal and/or ictal activities?

PURPOSE

There are multidien patterns of seizure occurrence. Predicting seizure risk may be easier with biomarker correlates to multidien patterns. We hypothesize multiday hyper or hypoglycemia contributes to seizure risk.

METHODS

In a type I diabetic (T1D) with focal onset epilepsy with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and responsive neurostimulation (RNS) devices, we studied multiday interictal activities (IEA), seizures, and glucose. Hourly CGM data was matched to hourly RNS captures of interictal and ictal activities over 33 months. RNS detection settings were unchanged. Multidien cycles were analyzed, active blocks of IEA and ictal episodes defined, and tissue glucose averages studied.

RESULTS

Average glucose was 161 mg/dl. A 40-day cycle of interictal and ictal activities occurred, though no similar glucose cycle was evident. Glucose elevations relative to patient average were associated with increases in IEA but not seizure. Frequent seizures were not associated with obvious elevations or decreases of glucose from baseline, most seizures occurred at +/- 10 mg/dl of average daily glucose (i.e. 150-170 mg/dl).

CONCLUSION

Tissue glucose may influence IEA but may not influence multiday seizure activity or very frequent seizures. In an ambulatory T1D patient multiday hypo or hyperglycemic extremes do not appear to provoke seizure activities.

Measuring synchrony in bio-medical timeseries

Paroxysms are sudden, unpredictable, short-lived events that abound in physiological processes and pathological disorders, from cellular functions (e.g., hormone secretion and neuronal firing) to life-threatening attacks (e.g., cardiac arrhythmia, epileptic seizures, and diabetic ketoacidosis). With the increasing use of personal chronic monitoring (e.g., electrocardiography, electroencephalography, and glucose monitors), the discovery of cycles in health and disease, and the emerging possibility of forecasting paroxysms, the need for suitable methods to evaluate synchrony-or phase-clustering-between events and related underlying physiological fluctuations is pressing. Here, based on examples in epilepsy, where seizures occur preferentially in certain brain states, we characterize different methods that evaluate synchrony in a controlled timeseries simulation framework. First, we compare two methods for extracting the phase of event occurrence and deriving the phase-locking value, a measure of synchrony: (M1) fitting cycles of fixed period-length vs (M2) deriving continuous cycles from a biomarker. In our simulations, M2 provides stronger evidence for cycles. Second, by systematically testing the sensitivity of both methods to non-stationarity in the underlying cycle, we show that M2 is more robust. Third, we characterize errors in circular statistics applied to timeseries with different degrees of temporal clustering and tested with different strategies: Rayleigh test, Poisson simulations, and surrogate timeseries. Using epilepsy data from 21 human subjects, we show the superiority of testing against surrogate time-series to minimize false positives and false negatives, especially when used in combination with M1. In conclusion, we show that only time frequency analysis of continuous recordings of a related bio-marker reveals the full extent of cyclical behavior in events. Identifying and forecasting cycles in biomedical timeseries will benefit from recordings using emerging wearable and implantable devices, so long as conclusions are based on conservative statistical testing.

Identifying seizure risk factors: A comparison of sleep, weather, and temporal features using a Bayesian forecast

OBJECTIVE

Most seizure forecasting algorithms have relied on features specific to electroencephalographic recordings. Environmental and physiological factors, such as weather and sleep, have long been suspected to affect brain activity and seizure occurrence but have not been fully explored as prior information for seizure forecasts in a patient-specific analysis. The study aimed to quantify whether sleep, weather, and temporal factors (time of day, day of week, and lunar phase) can provide predictive prior probabilities that may be used to improve seizure forecasts.

METHODS

This study performed post hoc analysis on data from eight patients with a total of 12.2 years of continuous intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (average = 1.5 years, range = 1.0-2.1 years), originally collected in a prospective trial. Patients also had sleep scoring and location-specific weather data. Histograms of future seizure likelihood were generated for each feature. The predictive utility of individual features was measured using a Bayesian approach to combine different features into an overall forecast of seizure likelihood. Performance of different feature combinations was compared using the area under the receiver operating curve. Performance evaluation was pseudoprospective.

RESULTS

For the eight patients studied, seizures could be predicted above chance accuracy using sleep (five patients), weather (two patients), and temporal features (six patients). Forecasts using combined features performed significantly better than chance in six patients. For four of these patients, combined forecasts outperformed any individual feature.

SIGNIFICANCE

Environmental and physiological data, including sleep, weather, and temporal features, provide significant predictive information on upcoming seizures. Although forecasts did not perform as well as algorithms that use invasive intracranial electroencephalography, the results were significantly above chance. Complementary signal features derived from an individual's historic seizure records may provide useful prior information to augment traditional seizure detection or forecasting algorithms. Importantly, many predictive features used in this study can be measured noninvasively.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of High-Frequency Activity (80-170 Hz) in Long-Term Intracranial EEG

OBJECTIVE

To determine the utility of high-frequency activity (HFA) and epileptiform spikes as biomarkers for epilepsy, we examined the variability in their rates and locations using long-term ambulatory intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings.

METHODS

This study used continuous iEEG recordings obtained over an average of 1.4 years from 15 patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. HFA was defined as 80- to 170-Hz events with amplitudes clearly larger than the background, which was automatically detected with a custom algorithm. The automatically detected HFA was compared with visually annotated high-frequency oscillations (HFOs). The variations of HFA rates were compared with spikes and seizures on patient-specific and electrode-specific bases.

RESULTS

HFA included manually annotated HFOs and high-amplitude events occurring in the 80- to 170-Hz range without observable oscillatory behavior. HFA and spike rates had high amounts of intrapatient and interpatient variability. Rates of HFA and spikes had large variability after electrode implantation in most of the patients. Locations of HFA and spikes varied up to weeks in more than one-third of the patients. Both HFA and spike rates showed strong circadian rhythms in all patients, and some also showed multiday cycles. Furthermore, the circadian patterns of HFA and spike rates had patient-specific correlations with seizures, which tended to vary across electrodes.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of HFA and epileptiform spikes should consider postimplantation variability. HFA and epileptiform spikes, like seizures, show circadian rhythms. However, the circadian profiles can vary spatially within patients, and their correlations to seizures are patient-specific.

Factors correlated with intracranial interictal epileptiform discharges in refractory epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to evaluate the influence that subject-specific factors have on intracranial interictal epileptiform discharge (IED) rates in persons with refractory epilepsy.

METHODS

One hundred fifty subjects with intracranial electrodes performed multiple sessions of a free recall memory task; this standardized task controlled for subject attention levels. We utilized a dominance analysis to rank the importance of subject-specific factors based on their relative influence on IED rates. Linear mixed-effects models were employed to comprehensively examine factors with highly ranked importance.

RESULTS

Antiseizure medication (ASM) status, time of testing, and seizure onset zone (SOZ) location were the highest-ranking factors in terms of their impact on IED rates. The average IED rate of electrodes in SOZs was 34% higher than the average IED rate of electrodes outside of SOZs (non-SOZ; p < .001). However, non-SOZ electrodes had similar IED rates regardless of the subject's SOZ location (p = .99). Subjects on older generation (p < .001) and combined generation (p < .001) ASM regimens had significantly lower IED rates relative to the group taking no ASMs; newer generation ASM regimens demonstrated a nonsignificant association with IED rates (p = .13). Of the ASMs included in this study, the following ASMs were associated with significant reductions in IED rates: levetiracetam (p < .001), carbamazepine (p < .001), lacosamide (p = .03), zonisamide (p = .01), lamotrigine (p = .03), phenytoin (p = .03), and topiramate (p = .01). We observed a nonsignificant association between time of testing and IED rates (morning-afternoon p = .15, morning-evening p = .85, afternoon-evening p = .26).

SIGNIFICANCE

The current study ranks the relative influence that subject-specific factors have on IED rates and highlights the importance of considering certain factors, such as SOZ location and ASM status, when analyzing IEDs for clinical or research purposes.

Forecasting seizure risk in adults with focal epilepsy: a development and validation study

BACKGROUND

People with epilepsy are burdened with the apparent unpredictability of seizures. In the past decade, converging evidence from studies using chronic EEG (cEEG) revealed that epileptic brain activity shows robust cycles, operating over hours (circadian) and days (multidien). We hypothesised that these cycles can be leveraged to estimate future seizure probability, and we tested the feasibility of forecasting seizures days in advance.

METHODS

We did a feasibility study in distinct development and validation cohorts, involving retrospective analysis of cEEG data recorded with an implanted device in adults (age ≥18 years) with drug-resistant focal epilepsy followed at 35 centres across the USA between Jan 19, 2004, and May 18, 2018. Patients were required to have had 20 or more electrographic seizures (development cohort) or self-reported seizures (validation cohort). In all patients, the device recorded interictal epileptiform activity (IEA; ≥6 months of continuous hourly data), the fluctuations in which helped estimate varying seizure risk. Point process statistical models trained on initial portions of each patient's cEEG data (both cohorts) generated forecasts of seizure probability that were tested on subsequent unseen seizure data and evaluated against surrogate time-series. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with forecasts showing improvement over chance (IoC).

FINDINGS

We screened 72 and 256 patients, and included 18 and 157 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models incorporating information about multidien IEA cycles alone generated daily seizure forecasts for the next calendar day with IoC in 15 (83%) patients in the development cohort and 103 (66%) patients in the validation cohort. The forecasting horizon could be extended up to 3 days while maintaining IoC in two (11%) of 18 patients and 61 (39%) of 157 patients. Forecasts with a shorter horizon of 1 h, possible only for electrographic seizures in the development cohort, showed IoC in all 18 (100%) patients.

INTERPRETATION

This study shows that seizure probability can be forecasted days in advance by leveraging multidien IEA cycles recorded with an implanted device. This study will serve as a basis for prospective clinical trials to establish how people with epilepsy might benefit from seizure forecasting over long horizons.

FUNDING

None. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Reconfiguration of human evolving large-scale epileptic brain networks prior to seizures: an evaluation with node centralities

Previous research has indicated that temporal changes of centrality of specific nodes in human evolving large-scale epileptic brain networks carry information predictive of impending seizures. Centrality is a fundamental network-theoretical concept that allows one to assess the role a node plays in a network. This concept allows for various interpretations, which is reflected in a number of centrality indices. Here we aim to achieve a more general understanding of local and global network reconfigurations during the pre-seizure period as indicated by changes of different node centrality indices. To this end, we investigate—in a time-resolved manner—evolving large-scale epileptic brain networks that we derived from multi-day, multi-electrode intracranial electroencephalograpic recordings from a large but inhomogeneous group of subjects with pharmacoresistant epilepsies with different anatomical origins. We estimate multiple centrality indices to assess the various roles the nodes play while the networks transit from the seizure-free to the pre-seizure period. Our findings allow us to formulate several major scenarios for the reconfiguration of an evolving epileptic brain network prior to seizures, which indicate that there is likely not a single network mechanism underlying seizure generation. Rather, local and global aspects of the pre-seizure network reconfiguration affect virtually all network constituents, from the various brain regions to the functional connections between them.

230 days of ultra long-term subcutaneous EEG: seizure cycle analysis and comparison to patient diary

We describe the longest period of subcutaneous EEG (sqEEG) monitoring to date, in a 35‐year‐old female with refractory epilepsy. Over 230 days, 4791/5520 h of sqEEG were recorded (86%, mean 20.8 [IQR 3.9] hours/day). Using an electronic diary, the patient reported 22 seizures, while automatically‐assisted visual sqEEG review detected 32 seizures. There was substantial agreement between days of reported and recorded seizures (Cohen’s kappa 0.664), although multiple clustered seizures remained undocumented. Circular statistics identified significant sqEEG seizure cycles at circadian (24‐hour) and multidien (5‐day) timescales. Electrographic seizure monitoring and analysis of long‐term seizure cycles are possible with this neurophysiological tool.

[Decision support systems, assistance systems and telemedicine in epileptology]

Hintergrund

Die wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse über Epilepsien und deren klinische Implikationen nehmen rasant zu. Für Nichtexperten stellt sich die zunehmende Herausforderung, den Überblick hierüber zu bewahren. Hier setzen Clinical-decision-support-Systeme (CDSS) an, indem sie standard- und expertengetriggertes Wissen zur Diagnostik und Therapie individualisiert und automatisiert liefern. Zudem sind Medizin-Apps und telemedizinische Verfahren zur Diagnostik und Therapie sowie Assistenzsysteme zur Anfallsdetektion bei Epilepsien verfügbar.

Ziel der Arbeit

Es soll ein Überblick über die aktuellen Entwicklungen und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten verfügbarer tele-epileptologischer Methoden gegeben werden.

Material und Methoden

Auf der Basis persönlicher Kenntnis und eines Literaturreviews werden epilepsiespezifische CDSS, Medizin-Apps, Assistenzsysteme sowie telemedizinische Anwendungen charakterisiert und deren klinische Einsatzmöglichkeiten dargestellt.

Ergebnisse und Diskussion

Personen mit Epilepsie könnten aufgrund des chronischen Verlaufs und der Komplexität der Erkrankung und ihrer Folgen von CDSS profitieren. Es erscheint wünschenswert, dass epilepsiespezifische CDSS sowohl für die Behandelnden als auch für Patienten nutzbar werden. Apps für Menschen mit Epilepsie dienen derzeit meist der Verlaufsdokumentation von Anfallsfrequenz, Medikamentencompliance und Nebenwirkungen. Gegenwärtige Anfallsdetektionssysteme erkennen vor allem generalisiert tonisch-klonische Anfälle (GTKA). Ein klinischer Nutzen ist noch nicht hinreichend belegt, erscheint aber wahrscheinlich, insbesondere da GTKA mit dem Risiko eines plötzlichen Todes von Epilepsiepatienten assoziiert sind und Interventionen als wirksam gelten.

Revisiting an ancient legend: Influence of the lunar cycle on occurrence of first-ever unprovoked seizures

BACKGROUND

The mythical effect of the lunar cycle on seizures has been debated over time. Previously healthy individuals presenting with first-ever seizures in whom investigations are negative often invoke questions about potential reasons including a full moon.

AIMS

To determine whether there is a temporal relationship between the occurrence of the first-ever unprovoked seizure and the lunar cycle.

METHODS

We studied adults who presented with a first-ever unprovoked seizure to two tertiary centres in Australia. Seizure onset time was obtained from the emergency department and ambulance documentations. We used Poisson regression modelling and incidence rate ratios (IRR) to determine whether seizures have a preponderance for a particular lunar phase. We performed further analysis on "first seizure epilepsy" and "first seizure not epilepsy" subgroups based on the International League Against Epilepsy criteria for a diagnosis of epilepsy after a single unprovoked seizure.

RESULTS

We analysed 1710 patients (38% females; median 39 yr), of whom 18% had epileptiform abnormalities on EEG and potentially epileptogenic lesions were detected on neuroimaging in 28%. Based on the EEG and imaging findings, 684 (40%) patients were categorized as "first seizure epilepsy" and 1026 (60%) "first seizure not epilepsy". The whole cohort and subgroup analysis demonstrated no significant difference in the seizure occurrence among the four lunar quarters.

CONCLUSIONS

First unprovoked seizures are not influenced by the lunar cycle. Patients pondering the cause of their first-ever unprovoked seizure can be reassured that the full moon was not responsible. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Circadian/multidien Molecular Oscillations and Rhythmicity of Epilepsy (MORE)

The occurrence of seizures at specific times of the day has been consistently observed for centuries in individuals with epilepsy. Electrophysiological recordings provide evidence that seizures have a higher probability of occurring at a given time during the night and day cycle in individuals with epilepsy here referred to as the seizure rush hour. Which mechanisms underlie such circadian rhythmicity of seizures? Why don't they occur every day at the same time? Which mechanisms may underlie their occurrence outside the rush hour? In this commentary, I present a hypothesis: MORE - Molecular Oscillations and Rhythmicity of Epilepsy, a conceptual framework to study and understand the mechanisms underlying the circadian rhythmicity of seizures and their probabilistic nature. The core of the hypothesis is the existence of ~24-hour oscillations of gene and protein expression throughout the body in different cells and organs. The orchestrated molecular oscillations control the rhythmicity of numerous body events, such as feeding and sleep. The concept developed here is that molecular oscillations may favor seizure genesis at preferred times, generating the condition for a seizure rush hour. However, the condition is not sufficient, as other factors are necessary for a seizure to occur. Studying these molecular oscillations may help us understand seizure genesis mechanisms and find new therapeutic targets and predictive biomarkers. The MORE hypothesis can be generalized to comorbidities and the slower multidien (week/month period) rhythmicity of seizures, a phenomenon addressed in another article in this issue of Epilepsia.

DyNeuMo Mk-2: An Investigational Circadian-Locked Neuromodulator with Responsive Stimulation for Applied Chronobiology

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease, essential tremor and epilepsy is an established palliative treatment. DBS uses electrical neuromodulation to suppress symptoms. Most current systems provide a continuous pattern of fixed stimulation, with clinical follow-ups to refine settings constrained to normal office hours. An issue with this management strategy is that the impact of stimulation on circadian, i.e. sleep-wake, rhythms is not fully considered; either in the device design or in the clinical follow-up. Since devices can be implanted in brain targets that couple into the reticular activating network, impact on wakefulness and sleep can be significant. This issue will likely grow as new targets are explored, with the potential to create entraining signals that are uncoupled from environmental influences. To address this issue, we have designed a new brain-machine-interface for DBS that combines a slow-adaptive circadian-based stimulation pattern with a fast-acting pathway for responsive stimulation, demonstrated here for seizure management. In preparation for first-in-human research trials to explore the utility of multi-timescale automated adaptive algorithms, design and prototyping was carried out in line with ISO risk management standards, ensuring patient safety. The ultimate aim is to account for chronobiology within the algorithms embedded in brain-machine-interfaces and in neuromodulation technology more broadly.

A new era in electroencephalographic monitoring? Subscalp devices for ultra-long-term recordings

Inaccurate subjective seizure counting poses treatment and diagnostic challenges and thus suboptimal quality in epilepsy management. The limitations of existing hospital- and home-based monitoring solutions are motivating the development of minimally invasive, subscalp, implantable electroencephalography (EEG) systems with accompanying cloud-based software. This new generation of ultra-long-term brain monitoring systems is setting expectations for a sea change in the field of clinical epilepsy. From definitive diagnoses and reliable seizure logs to treatment optimization and presurgical seizure foci localization, the clinical need for continuous monitoring of brain electrophysiological activity in epilepsy patients is evident. This paper presents the converging solutions developed independently by researchers and organizations working at the forefront of next generation EEG monitoring. The immediate value of these devices is discussed as well as the potential drivers and hurdles to adoption. Additionally, this paper discusses what the expected value of ultra-long-term EEG data might be in the future with respect to alarms for especially focal seizures, seizure forecasting, and treatment personalization.

Temporal trends and autopsy findings of SUDEP based on medico-legal investigations in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To determine time trends and distinguishing autopsy findings of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) in the United States.

METHODS

We identified decedents where epilepsy/seizure was listed as cause/contributor to death or comorbid condition on the death certificate among all decedents who underwent medico-legal investigation at 3 medical examiner (ME) offices across the country: New York City (2009-2016), San Diego County (2008-2016), and Maryland (2000-2016). After reviewing all available reports, deaths classified as definite/probable/near SUDEP or SUDEP plus were included for analysis. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analyze temporal trends in SUDEP rate for 2009-2016. Definite SUDEPs were compared to sex- and age ±2 years-matched non-SUDEP deaths with a history of epilepsy regarding autopsy findings, circumstances, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 1,086 SUDEP cases were identified. There was a decreasing trend in ME-investigated SUDEP incidence between 2009 and 2016 (z = -2.2, S = -42, p = 0.028) among 3 regions. There was a 28% reduction in ME-investigated SUDEP incidence from 2009 to 2012 to 2013-2016 (confidence interval, 17%-38%, p < 0.0001). We found no correlation between SUDEP rates and the month of year or day of week. There was no difference between SUDEP and non-SUDEP deaths regarding neurodevelopmental abnormalities, pulmonary congestion/edema, and myocardial fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a decreasing monotonic trend in ME-investigated SUDEP incidence over 8 years, with a 28% reduction in incidence from 2009-2012 to 2013-2016. Unlike SIDS and sudden cardiac death, we found no correlation between SUDEP and the season of year or day of week. No autopsy findings distinguished SUDEP from non-SUDEP deaths.

Cues for seizure timing

The cyclical organization of seizures in epilepsy has been described since antiquity. However, historical explanations for seizure cycles-based on celestial, hormonal, and environmental factors-have only recently become testable with the advent of chronic electroencephalography (cEEG) and modern statistical techniques. Here, factors purported over millennia to influence seizure timing are viewed through a contemporary lens. We discuss the emerging concept that seizures are organized over multiple timescales, each involving differential influences of external and endogenous rhythm generators. Leveraging large cEEG datasets and circular statistics appropriate for cyclical phenomena, we present new evidence for circadian (day-night), multidien (multi-day), and circannual (about-yearly) variation in seizure activity. Modulation of seizure timing by multiscale temporal variables has implications for diagnosis and therapy in clinical epilepsy. Uncovering the mechanistic basis for seizure cycles, particularly the factors that govern multidien periodicity, will be a major focus of future work.

Machine learning and wearable devices of the future

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly recognized as a useful tool in healthcare applications, including epilepsy. One of the most important applications of ML in epilepsy is seizure detection and prediction, using wearable devices (WDs). However, not all currently available algorithms implemented in WDs are using ML. In this review, we summarize the state of the art of using WDs and ML in epilepsy, and we outline future development in these domains. There is published evidence for reliable detection of epileptic seizures using implanted electroencephalography (EEG) electrodes and wearable, non-EEG devices. Application of ML using the data recorded with WDs from a large number of patients could change radically the way we diagnose and manage patients with epilepsy.

Seizure forecasting and cyclic control of seizures

Epilepsy is a unique neurologic condition characterized by recurrent seizures, where causes, underlying biomarkers, triggers, and patterns differ across individuals. The unpredictability of seizures can heighten fear and anxiety in people with epilepsy, making it difficult to take part in day-to-day activities. Epilepsy researchers have prioritized developing seizure prediction algorithms to combat episodic seizures for decades, but the utility and effectiveness of prediction algorithms has not been investigated thoroughly in clinical settings. In contrast, seizure forecasts, which theoretically provide the probability of a seizure at any time (as opposed to predicting the next seizure occurrence), may be more feasible. Many advances have been made over the past decade in the field of seizure forecasting, including improvements in algorithms as a result of machine learning and exploration of non-EEG-based measures of seizure susceptibility, such as physiological biomarkers, behavioral changes, environmental drivers, and cyclic seizure patterns. For example, recent work investigating periodicities in individual seizure patterns has determined that more than 90% of people have circadian rhythms in their seizures, and many also experience multiday, weekly, or longer cycles. Other potential indicators of seizure susceptibility include stress levels, heart rate, and sleep quality, all of which have the potential to be captured noninvasively over long time scales. There are many possible applications of a seizure-forecasting device, including improving quality of life for people with epilepsy, guiding treatment plans and medication titration, optimizing presurgical monitoring, and focusing scientific research. To realize this potential, it is vital to better understand the user requirements of a seizure-forecasting device, continue to advance forecasting algorithms, and design clear guidelines for prospective clinical trials of seizure forecasting.

Development and Validation of Forecasting Next Reported Seizure Using e-Diaries

OBJECTIVE

There are no validated methods for predicting the timing of seizures. Using machine learning, we sought to forecast 24-hour risk of self-reported seizure from e-diaries.

METHODS

Data from 5,419 patients on SeizureTracker.com (including seizure count, type, and duration) were split into training (3,806 patients/1,665,215 patient-days) and testing (1,613 patients/549,588 patient-days) sets with no overlapping patients. An artificial intelligence (AI) program, consisting of recurrent networks followed by a multilayer perceptron ("deep learning" model), was trained to produce risk forecasts. Forecasts were made from a sliding window of 3-month diary history for each day of each patient's diary. After training, the model parameters were held constant and the testing set was scored. A rate-matched random (RMR) forecast was compared to the AI. Comparisons were made using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a measure of binary discrimination performance, and the Brier score, a measure of forecast calibration. The Brier skill score (BSS) measured the improvement of the AI Brier score compared to the benchmark RMR Brier score. Confidence intervals (CIs) on performance statistics were obtained via bootstrapping.

RESULTS

The AUC was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.85-0.88) for AI and 0.83 (95% CI = 0.81-0.85) for RMR, favoring AI (p < 0.001). Overall (all patients combined), BSS was 0.27 (95% CI = 0.23-0.31), also favoring AI (p < 0.001).

INTERPRETATION

The AI produced a valid forecast superior to a chance forecaster, and provided meaningful forecasts in the majority of patients. Future studies will be needed to quantify the clinical value of these forecasts for patients. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:588-595.

The Molecular Genetic Interaction Between Circadian Rhythms and Susceptibility to Seizures and Epilepsy

Seizure patterns observed in patients with epilepsy suggest that circadian rhythms and sleep/wake mechanisms play some role in the disease. This review addresses key topics in the relationship between circadian rhythms and seizures in epilepsy. We present basic information on circadian biology, but focus on research studying the influence of both the time of day and the sleep/wake cycle as independent but related factors on the expression of seizures in epilepsy. We review studies investigating how seizures and epilepsy disrupt expression of core clock genes, and how disruption of clock mechanisms impacts seizures and the development of epilepsy. We focus on the overlap between mechanisms of circadian-associated changes in SCN neuronal excitability and mechanisms of epileptogenesis as a means of identifying key pathways and molecules that could represent new targets or strategies for epilepsy therapy. Finally, we review the concept of chronotherapy and provide a perspective regarding its application to patients with epilepsy based on their individual characteristics (i.e., being a “morning person” or a “night owl”). We conclude that better understanding of the relationship between circadian rhythms, neuronal excitability, and seizures will allow both the identification of new therapeutic targets for treating epilepsy as well as more effective treatment regimens using currently available pharmacological and non-pharmacological strategies.

Placebo in epilepsy

Placebos impact epilepsy in a number of ways. Through randomized clinical trials, explicit clinical use, and also through implicit clinical use, placebos play a role in epilepsy. This chapter will discuss the reasons placebo is used, the determinants of placebo response in epilepsy, observations about placebo specific to epilepsy, and ways in which clinical trial design is impacted by placebo.

Signal quality and patient experience with wearable devices for epilepsy management

Noninvasive wearable devices have great potential to aid the management of epilepsy, but these devices must have robust signal quality, and patients must be willing to wear them for long periods of time. Automated machine learning classification of wearable biosensor signals requires quantitative measures of signal quality to automatically reject poor-quality or corrupt data segments. In this study, commercially available wearable sensors were placed on patients with epilepsy undergoing in-hospital or in-home electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring, and healthy volunteers. Empatica E4 and Biovotion Everion were used to record accelerometry (ACC), photoplethysmography (PPG), and electrodermal activity (EDA). Byteflies Sensor Dots were used to record ACC and PPG, the Activinsights GENEActiv watch to record ACC, and Epitel Epilog to record EEG data. PPG and EDA signals were recorded for multiple days, then epochs of high-quality, marginal-quality, or poor-quality data were visually identified by reviewers, and reviewer annotations were compared to automated signal quality measures. For ACC, the ratio of spectral power from 0.8 to 5 Hz to broadband power was used to separate good-quality signals from noise. For EDA, the rate of amplitude change and prevalence of sharp peaks significantly differentiated between good-quality data and noise. Spectral entropy was used to assess PPG and showed significant differences between good-, marginal-, and poor-quality signals. EEG data were evaluated using methods to identify a spectral noise cutoff frequency. Patients were asked to rate the usability and comfort of each device in several categories. Patients showed a significant preference for the wrist-worn devices, and the Empatica E4 device was preferred most often. Current wearable devices can provide high-quality data and are acceptable for routine use, but continued development is needed to improve data quality, consistency, and management, as well as acceptability to patients.

Natural history of generalized motor seizures: A retrospective analysis

PURPOSE

This study aims to characterize the natural history of generalized motor seizures through longitudinal stratification of patient-reported clinical seizures into high, medium and low rates of generalized motor seizures (also known as generalized tonic-clonic seizures or GTCs).

METHODS

From 2007 to 2018, 1.4 million seizures were recorded by 12,402 SeizureTracker.com users that met inclusion/exclusion criteria. The number of GTCs per year since the first seizure diary entry was calculated for each user and categorized as: Low (0 GTCs/year), Medium (1-2 GTCs/year), or High (>3 GTCs/year) GTC rates.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the time until exiting the initial category were computed. There was a global difference between risk groups (p < 0.01). Further pairwise log rank tests revealed a difference between each pair of risk groups (p < 0.01). At 3 years, 40.8% of people initially presenting with high GTC rates remained in their initial category, while 77.3% of people initially presenting with low GTC rates remained in their initial category.

CONCLUSION

A patient with a low rate of GTCs is likely to remain at low risk for future GTCs, whereas higher GTC rate patients (at least one GTC/year) may leave their initial risk stratification. Thus, yearly re-assessment may be prudent when considering risk of further GTCs. Given the association between higher yearly rates of GTCs with increased SUDEP risk and morbidity in epilepsy, further validation of these findings is important for prognostication.

Seizure pathways change on circadian and slower timescales in individual patients with focal epilepsy

Personalized medicine requires that treatments adapt to not only the patient but also changing factors within each individual. Although epilepsy is a dynamic disorder characterized by pathological fluctuations in brain state, surprisingly little is known about whether and how seizures vary in the same patient. We quantitatively compared within-patient seizure network evolutions using intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) recordings of over 500 seizures from 31 patients with focal epilepsy (mean 16.5 seizures per patient). In all patients, we found variability in seizure paths through the space of possible network dynamics. Seizures with similar pathways tended to occur closer together in time, and a simple model suggested that seizure pathways change on circadian and/or slower timescales in the majority of patients. These temporal relationships occurred independent of whether the patient underwent antiepileptic medication reduction. Our results suggest that various modulatory processes, operating at different timescales, shape within-patient seizure evolutions, leading to variable seizure pathways that may require tailored treatment approaches.

Circadian-Like Rhythmicity of Extracellular Brain Glutamate in Epilepsy

Seizures often exhibit striking circadian-like (~24-h) rhythms. While chronotherapy has shown promise in treating epilepsy, it is not widely used, in part because the patterns of seizure rhythmicity vary considerably among patients and types of epilepsy. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying rhythmicity in epilepsy could be expected to result in more effective approaches which can be tailored to each individual patient. The excitatory neurotransmitter glutamate is an essential modulator of circadian rhythms, and changes in the extracellular levels of glutamate likely affect the threshold to seizures. We used a reverse translational rodent model of mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) combined with long-term intracerebral microdialysis to monitor the hourly concentrations of glutamate in the seizure onset area (epileptogenic hippocampus) over several days. We observed significant 24-h oscillations of extracellular glutamate in the epileptogenic hippocampus (n = 4, JTK_CYCLE test, p < 0.05), but not in the hippocampus of control animals (n = 4). To our knowledge, circadian glutamate oscillations have not been observed in a seizure onset region, and we speculate that the oscillations contribute to the rhythmicity of seizures in MTLE.

Epilepsy and Its Interaction With Sleep and Circadian Rhythm

Growing evidence shows the bidirectional interactions between sleep, circadian rhythm, and epilepsy. Comprehending how these interact with each other may help to advance our understanding of the pathophysiology of epilepsy and develop new treatment strategies to improve seizure control by reducing the medication side effects and the risks associated with seizures. In this review, we present the overview of different temporal patterns of interictal epileptiform discharges and epileptic seizures over a period of 24 consecutive hours. Furthermore, we discuss the underlying mechanism of the core-clock gene in periodic seizure occurrences. Finally, we outline the role of circadian patterns of seizures on seizure forecasting models and its implication for chronotherapy in epilepsy.

Natural variability in seizure frequency: Implications for trials and placebo

BACKGROUND

Changes in patient-reported seizure frequencies are the gold standard used to test efficacy of new treatments in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Recent analyses of patient seizure diary data suggest that the placebo response may be attributable to natural fluctuations in seizure frequency, though the evidence is incomplete. Here we develop a data-driven statistical model and assess the impact of the model on interpretation of placebo response.

METHODS

A synthetic seizure diary generator matching statistical properties seen across multiple epilepsy diary datasets was constructed. The model was used to simulate the placebo arm of 5000 RCTs. A meta-analysis of 23 historical RCTs was compared to the simulations.

RESULTS

The placebo 50 %-responder rate (RR50) was 27.3 ± 3.6 % (simulated) and 21.1 ± 10.0 % (historical). The placebo median percent change (MPC) was 22.0 ± 6.0 % (simulated) and 16.7 ± 10.3 % (historical).

CONCLUSIONS

A statistical model of daily seizure count generation which incorporates quantities related to the natural fluctuations of seizure count data produces a placebo response comparable to those seen in historical RCTs. This model may be useful in better understanding the seizure count fluctuations seen in patients in other clinical settings.

Circadian Rhythms and Epilepsy: A Suitable Case for Absence Epilepsy

Many physiological processes such as sleep, hormonal secretion, or thermoregulation, are expressed as daily rhythms orchestrated by the circadian timing system. A powerful internal clock mechanism ensures proper synchronization of vital functions within an organism on the one hand, and between the organism and the external environment on the other. Some of the pathological processes developing in the brain and body are subjected to circadian modulation as well. Epilepsy is one of the conditions which symptoms often worsen at a very specific time of a day. Variation in peak occurrence depends on the syndrome and localization of the epileptic focus. Moreover, the timing of some types of seizures is closely related to the sleep-wake cycle, one of the most prominent circadian rhythms. This review focuses on childhood absence epilepsy (CAE), a genetic generalized epilepsy syndrome, in which both, the circadian and sleep influences play a significant role in manifestation of symptoms. Human and animal studies report rhythmical occurrence of spike-wave discharges (SWDs), an EEG hallmark of CAE. The endogenous nature of the SWDs rhythm has been confirmed experimentally in a genetic animal model of the disease, rats of the WAG/Rij strain. Well-known detrimental effects of circadian misalignment were demonstrated to impact the severity of ongoing epileptic activity. SWDs are vigilance-dependent in both humans and animal models, occurring most frequently during passive behavioral states and light slow-wave sleep. The relationship with the sleep-wake cycle seems to be bidirectional, while sleep shapes the rhythm of seizures, epileptic phenotype changes sleep architecture. Circadian factors and the sleep-wake states dependency have a potential as add-ons in seizures' forecasting. Stability of the rhythm of recurrent seizures in individual patients has been already used as a variable which refines existing algorithms for seizures' prediction. On the other hand, apart from successful pharmacological approach, circadian hygiene including sufficient sleep and avoidance of internal desynchronization or sleep loss, may be beneficial for patients with epilepsy in everyday management of seizures.

Individualizing the definition of seizure clusters based on temporal clustering analysis

OBJECTIVE

Seizure clusters are often encountered in people with poorly controlled epilepsy. Detection of seizure clusters is currently based on simple clinical rules, such as two seizures separated by four or fewer hours or multiple seizures in 24 h. Current definitions fail to distinguish between statistically significant clusters and those that may result from natural variation in the person's seizures. Ability to systematically define when a seizure cluster is significant for the individual carries major implications for treatment. However, there is no uniform consensus on how to define seizure clusters. This study proposes a principled statistical approach to defining seizure clusters that addresses these issues.

METHODS

A total of 533,968 clinical seizures from 1,748 people with epilepsy in the Seizure Tracker™ seizure diary database were used for algorithm development. We propose an algorithm for automated individualized seizure cluster identification combining cumulative sum change-point analysis with bootstrapping and aberration detection, which provides a new approach to personalized seizure cluster identification at user-specified levels of clinical significance. We develop a standalone user interface to make the proposed algorithm accessible for real-time seizure cluster identification (ClusterCalc™). Clinical impact of systematizing cluster identification is demonstrated by comparing empirically-defined clusters to those identified by routine seizure cluster definitions. We also demonstrate use of the Hurst exponent as a standardized measure of seizure clustering for comparison of seizure clustering burden within or across patients.

RESULTS

Seizure clustering was present in 26.7 % (95 % CI, 24.5-28.7 %) of people with epilepsy. Empirical tables were provided for standardizing inter- and intra-patient comparisons of seizure cluster tendency. Using the proposed algorithm, we found that 37.7-59.4 % of seizures identified as clusters based on routine definitions had high probability of occurring by chance. Several clusters identified by the algorithm were missed by conventional definitions. The utility of the ClusterCalc algorithm for individualized seizure cluster detection is demonstrated.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study proposes a principled statistical approach to individualized seizure cluster identification and demonstrates potential for real-time clinical usage through ClusterCalc. Using this approach accounts for individual variations in baseline seizure frequency and evaluates statistical significance. This new definition has the potential to improve individualized epilepsy treatment by systematizing identification of unrecognized seizure clusters and preventing unnecessary intervention for random events previously considered clusters.

Semiology of spontaneous generalized tonic-clonic seizures in the epileptic baboon

Objective

The epileptic baboon provides an animal model for juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME), demonstrating spontaneous generalized tonic‐clonic seizures (GTCS) in addition to generalized myoclonic, absence and multifocal seizures. While photoconvulsive responses have been described in this model, spontaneous GTCS have not been characterized.

Methods

In this study, we characterized 46 seizures in 7 epileptic baboons (5 females, 12 ± 3 years old) by video recording. While housed in single cages, the baboons were monitored for a median of 2 (range 1‐10) weeks, with high‐resolution, infrared‐capable camera systems. Each GTCS was evaluated for evidence of preconvulsive ictal symptoms, focal convulsive behaviors, duration of the preconvulsive and convulsive periods, postictal immobility, and recovery of an upright posture. The circadian pattern of GTCS was also for each baboon.

Results

More than half of GTCS occurred in sleep, beginning from an upright position in all but one tethered baboon. Focal semiological findings were noted in 19 (41%) GTCS, and these included preconvulsive focal ictal motor behaviors as well as lateralized motor activity during the convulsions. The convulsive portion lasted 47 ± 10 seconds, whereas the entire seizure lasted 54 ± 21 seconds. Postictally, the baboons remained immobile for a median latency of 40 (range 14‐347) seconds, recovering an upright posture after 173 (range 71‐1980) seconds. GTCS demonstrated circadian patterns in all but one baboon, with 34 (74%) all seizures occurring between 1‐9 am.

Significance

GTCS in the baboon revealed intersubject variability, but semiology remained stereotyped in a given baboon. Similar to GTCS in people with JME, focal symptoms were also observed in epileptic baboons. The postictal recovery period, characterized by postictal immobility and myoclonus as well as time to recumbency, also varied among baboons.

Controversies on the network theory of epilepsy: Debates held during the ICTALS 2019 conference

Debates on six controversial topics on the network theory of epilepsy were held during two debate sessions, as part of the International Conference for Technology and Analysis of Seizures, 2019 (ICTALS 2019) convened at the University of Exeter, UK, September 2-5 2019. The debate topics were (1) From pathologic to physiologic: is the epileptic network part of an existing large-scale brain network? (2) Are micro scale recordings pertinent for defining the epileptic network? (3) From seconds to years: do we need all temporal scales to define an epileptic network? (4) Is it necessary to fully define the epileptic network to control it? (5) Is controlling seizures sufficient to control the epileptic network? (6) Does the epileptic network want to be controlled? This article, written by the organizing committee for the debate sessions and the debaters, summarizes the arguments presented during the debates on these six topics.

Aberrant expression of PAR bZIP transcription factors is associated with epileptogenesis, focus on hepatic leukemia factor

Epilepsy is a widespread neurological disease characterized by abnormal neuronal activity resulting in recurrent seizures. There is mounting evidence that a circadian system disruption, involving clock genes and their downstream transcriptional regulators, is associated with epilepsy. In this study, we characterized the hippocampal expression of clock genes and PAR bZIP transcription factors (TFs) in a mouse model of temporal lobe epilepsy induced by intrahippocampal injection of kainic acid (KA). The expression of PAR bZIP TFs was significantly altered following KA injection as well as in other rodent models of acquired epilepsy. Although the PAR bZIP TFs are regulated by proinflammatory cytokines in peripheral tissues, we discovered that the regulation of their expression is inflammation-independent in hippocampal tissue and rather mediated by clock genes and hyperexcitability. Furthermore, we report that hepatic leukemia factor (Hlf), a member of PAR bZIP TFs family, is invariably downregulated in animal models of acquired epilepsy, regulates neuronal activity in vitro and its overexpression in dentate gyrus neurons in vivo leads to altered expression of genes associated with seizures and epilepsy. Overall, our study provides further evidence of PAR bZIP TFs involvement in epileptogenesis and points to Hlf as the key player.

Circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters in canine epilepsy

Advances in ambulatory intracranial EEG devices have enabled objective analyses of circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters in humans. This study characterizes circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters in dogs with naturally occurring focal epilepsy, and considers the implications of an animal model for the study of seizure risk patterns, seizure forecasting and personalized treatment protocols. In this retrospective cohort study, 16 dogs were continuously monitored with ambulatory intracranial EEG devices designed for humans. Detailed medication records were kept for all dogs. Seizure periodicity was evaluated with circular statistics methods. Circular non-uniformity was assessed for circadian, 7-day and approximately monthly periods. The Rayleigh test was used to assess statistical significance, with correction for multiple comparisons. Seizure clusters were evaluated with Fano factor (index of dispersion) measurements, and compared to a Poisson distribution. Relationships between interseizure interval (ISI) and seizure duration were evaluated. Six dogs met the inclusion criteria of having at least 30 seizures and were monitored for an average of 65 weeks. Three dogs had seizures with circadian seizure periodicity, one dog had a 7-day periodicity, and two dogs had approximately monthly periodicity. Four dogs had seizure clusters and significantly elevated Fano factor values. There were subject-specific differences in the dynamics of ISI and seizure durations, both within and between lead and clustered seizure categories. Our findings show that seizure timing in dogs with naturally occurring epilepsy is not random, and that circadian and multiday seizure periodicities, and seizure clusters are common. Circadian, 7-day, and monthly seizure periodicities occur independent of antiseizure medication dosing, and these patterns likely reflect endogenous rhythms of seizure risk.

Epilepsy Benchmarks Area III: Improved Treatment Options for Controlling Seizures and Epilepsy-Related Conditions Without Side Effects

The goals of Epilepsy Benchmark Area III involve identifying areas that are ripe for progress in terms of controlling seizures and patient symptoms in light of the most recent advances in both basic and clinical research. These goals were developed with an emphasis on potential new therapeutic strategies that will reduce seizure burden and improve quality of life for patients with epilepsy. In particular, we continue to support the proposition that a better understanding of how seizures are initiated, propagated, and terminated in different forms of epilepsy is central to enabling new approaches to treatment, including pharmacological as well as surgical and device-oriented approaches. The stubbornly high rate of treatment-resistant epilepsy—one-third of patients—emphasizes the urgent need for new therapeutic strategies, including pharmacological, procedural, device linked, and genetic. The development of new approaches can be advanced by better animal models of seizure initiation that represent salient features of human epilepsy, as well as humanized models such as induced pluripotent stem cells and organoids. The rapid advances in genetic understanding of a subset of epilepsies provide a path to new and direct patient-relevant cellular and animal models, which could catalyze conceptualization of new treatments that may be broadly applicable across multiple forms of epilepsies beyond those arising from variation in a single gene. Remarkable advances in machine learning algorithms and miniaturization of devices and increases in computational power together provide an enhanced opportunity to detect and mitigate seizures in real time via devices that interrupt electrical activity directly or administer effective pharmaceuticals. Each of these potential areas for advance will be discussed in turn.

Seizure prediction and intervention

Epilepsy treatment is challenging due to a lack of essential diagnostic tools, including methods for reliable seizure detection in the ambulatory setting, to assess seizure risk over time and to monitor treatment efficacy. This lack of objective diagnostics constitutes a significant barrier to better treatments, raises methodological concerns about the antiseizure medication evaluation process and, to patients, is a main issue contributing to the disease burden. Recent years have seen rapid progress towards better diagnostics that meet these needs of epilepsy patients and clinicians. Availability of comprehensive data and the rise of more powerful computational analysis methods have driven progress in this area. Here, we provide an overview on data- and theory-driven approaches aimed at identifying methods to reliably detect and forecast seizures as well as to monitor brain excitability and treatment efficacy in epilepsy. We provide a particular account on neural criticality, the hypothesis that cortical networks may be poised in a critical state at the boundary between different types of dynamics, and discuss its role in informing diagnostics to track cortex excitability and seizure risk in recent experiments. With the further expansion of digitalization in medicine, tele-medicine and long-term, ambulatory monitoring, these computationally based methods may gain more relevance in epilepsy in the future. This article is part of the special issue entitled 'New Epilepsy Therapies for the 21st Century - From Antiseizure Drugs to Prevention, Modification and Cure of Epilepsy'.

Prospective validation study of an epilepsy seizure risk system for outpatient evaluation

OBJECTIVE

We conducted clinical testing of an automated Bayesian machine learning algorithm (Epilepsy Seizure Assessment Tool [EpiSAT]) for outpatient seizure risk assessment using seizure counting data, and validated performance against specialized epilepsy clinician experts.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective longitudinal study of EpiSAT performance against 24 specialized clinician experts at three tertiary referral epilepsy centers in the United States. Accuracy, interrater reliability, and intra-rater reliability of EpiSAT for correctly identifying changes in seizure risk (improvements, worsening, or no change) were evaluated using 120 seizures from four synthetic seizure diaries (seizure risk known) and 120 seizures from four real seizure diaries (seizure risk unknown). The proportion of observed agreement between EpiSAT and clinicians was evaluated to assess compatibility of EpiSAT with clinical decision patterns by epilepsy experts.

RESULTS

EpiSAT exhibited substantial observed agreement (75.4%) with clinicians for assessing seizure risk. The mean accuracy of epilepsy providers for correctly assessing seizure risk was 74.7%. EpiSAT accurately identified seizure risk in 87.5% of seizure diary entries, corresponding to a significant improvement of 17.4% (P = .002). Clinicians exhibited low-to-moderate interrater reliability for seizure risk assessment (Krippendorff's α = 0.46) with good intrarater reliability across a 4- to 12-week evaluation period (Scott's π = 0.89).

SIGNIFICANCE

These results validate the ability of EpiSAT to yield objective clinical recommendations on seizure risk which follow decision patterns similar to those from specialized epilepsy providers, but with improved accuracy and reproducibility. This algorithm may serve as a useful clinical decision support system for quantitative analysis of clinical seizure frequency in clinical epilepsy practice.

No evidence for critical slowing down prior to human epileptic seizures

There is an ongoing debate whether generic early warning signals for critical transitions exist that can be applied across diverse systems. The human epileptic brain is often considered as a prototypical system, given the devastating and, at times, even life-threatening nature of the extreme event epileptic seizure. More than three decades of international effort has successfully identified predictors of imminent seizures. However, the suitability of typically applied early warning indicators for critical slowing down, namely, variance and lag-1 autocorrelation, for indexing seizure susceptibility is still controversially discussed. Here, we investigated long-term, multichannel recordings of brain dynamics from 28 subjects with epilepsy. Using a surrogate-based evaluation procedure of sensitivity and specificity of time-resolved estimates of early warning indicators, we found no evidence for critical slowing down prior to 105 epileptic seizures.

When can we trust responders? Serious concerns when using 50% response rate to assess clinical trials

Individual seizure rates are highly volatile, with large fluctuations from month-to-month. Nevertheless, changes in individual mean seizure rates are used to measure whether or not trial participants successfully respond to treatment. This study aims to quantify the challenges in identifying individual treatment responders in epilepsy. A power calculation was performed to determine the trial duration required to detect a significant 50% decrease in seizure rates (P < .05) for individuals. Seizure rate simulations were also performed to determine the number of people who would appear to be 50% responders by chance. Seizure rate statistics were derived from long-term seizure counts recorded during a previous clinical trial for an implantable seizure monitoring device. We showed that individual variance in monthly seizure rates can lead to an unacceptably high false-positive rate in the detection of individual treatment responders. This error rate cannot be reduced by increasing the trial population; however, it can be reduced by increasing the duration of clinical trials. This finding suggests that some drugs may be incorrectly evaluated as effective; or, conversely, that helpful drugs could be rejected based on 50% response rates. It is important to pursue more nuanced approaches to measuring individual treatment response, which consider the patient-specific distributions of seizure rates.