Cost-Effectiveness of Risk Score-Stratified Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening in Patients with Cirrhosis

MPIC: Molecular Prognostic Indicators in Cirrhosis Database for Clinical Context-Specific in Silico Prognostic Biomarker Validation

Prognostic biomarkers are vital in the management of progressive chronic diseases such as liver cirrhosis, affecting 1-2% of the global population and causing over 1 million deaths every year. Despite numerous candidate biomarkers in literature, the costly and lengthy process of validation hampers their clinical translation. Existing omics databases are not suitable for in silico validation due to the ignorance of critical factors, i.e., study design, clinical context of biomarker application, and statistical power. To address the unmet need, we have developed the Molecular Prognostic Indicators in Cirrhosis (MPIC) database as a representative example of an omics database tailored for prognostic biomarker validation. MPIC consists of (i) a molecular and clinical database structured by defined disease context and specific clinical outcome and annotated with employed study design and anticipated statistical power by disease domain experts, (ii) a bioinformatics analysis engine for user-provided gene-signature- or gene-based prognostic prediction, and (iii) a user interface for interactive exploration of relevant clinical cohort/scenario and assessment of significance and reliability of the result for prognostic prediction. MPIC assists cost-effective prognostic biomarker development by facilitating the process of validation, and will transform the care of chronic diseases such as cirrhosis. MPIC is freely available at www.mpic-app.org. The website is implemented in Java, Apache, and MySQL with all major browsers supported.

Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk varies dramatically in patients with cirrhosis according to well-described, readily available predictors. We aimed to develop simple models estimating HCC risk in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-cirrhosis or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-cirrhosis and calculate the net benefit that would be derived by implementing HCC surveillance strategies based on HCC risk as predicted by our models.

METHODS

We identified 7,068 patients with NAFLD-cirrhosis and 16,175 with ALD-cirrhosis who received care in the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system in 2012. We retrospectively followed them for the development of incident HCC until January 2018. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to develop and internally validate models predicting HCC risk using baseline characteristics at entry into the cohort in 2012. We plotted decision curves of net benefit against HCC screening thresholds.

RESULTS

We identified 1,278 incident cases of HCC during a mean follow-up period of 3.7 years. Mean annualized HCC incidence was 1.56% in NAFLD-cirrhosis and 1.44% in ALD-cirrhosis. The final models estimating HCC were developed separately for NAFLD-cirrhosis and ALD-cirrhosis and included 7 predictors: age, gender, diabetes, body mass index, platelet count, serum albumin and aspartate aminotransferase to √alanine aminotransferase ratio. The models exhibited very good measures of discrimination and calibration and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 for NAFLD-cirrhosis and 0.76 for ALD-cirrhosis. Decision curves showed higher standardized net benefit of risk-based screening using our prediction models compared to the screen-all approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed simple models estimating HCC risk in patients with NAFLD-cirrhosis or ALD-cirrhosis, which are available as web-based tools (www.hccrisk.com). Risk stratification can be used to inform risk-based HCC surveillance strategies in individual patients or healthcare systems or to identify high-risk patients for clinical trials.

LAY SUMMARY

Patients with cirrhosis of the liver are at risk of getting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC or liver cancer) and therefore it is recommended that they undergo surveillance for HCC. However, the risk of HCC varies dramatically in patients with cirrhosis, which has implications on if and how patients get surveillance, how providers counsel patients about the need for surveillance, and how healthcare systems approach and prioritize surveillance. We used readily available predictors to develop models estimating HCC risk in patients with cirrhosis, which are available as web-based tools at www.hccrisk.com.

Status of, and strategies for improving, adherence to HCC screening and surveillance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide and the main cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Secondary prevention of HCC can be accomplished through the serial application of screening tests (ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein) to detect the presence of subclinical lesions amenable to potentially curative treatment, such as surgery and ablation. The efficacy of HCC screening is accepted by hepatologists in terms of decline in cancer-specific mortality, but its translation into clinical practice is less than ideal. The effectiveness of HCC screening is hampered by several factors: failure to identify at-risk patients, failure to access care and failure to detect HCC. For each of these steps, possible improvements are discussed in order to face the changing etiology of cirrhosis and expand the screening of at-risk populations by including selected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients.

Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Current Best Practice and Future Direction

Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide and the fastest growing cause of cancer deaths in the United States. The overall prognosis of HCC remains dismal, except for the subset of patients who are diagnosed at early stage and receive potentially curative therapies, such as surgical resection and liver transplantation. Given this, expert society guidelines recommend HCC surveillance every 6 months in at-risk individuals. Despite these recommendations, the effectiveness of HCC surveillance remains a subject of debate. We discuss current best practices for HCC surveillance and the evidence that support these recommendations. We also describe several initiatives that are underway to improve HCC surveillance and outline areas that may serve as high-yield targets for future research. Overall, we believe these efforts will help the field move toward precision surveillance, where surveillance tests and intervals are tailored to individual HCC risk. Doing so can maximize surveillance benefits, minimize surveillance harms, and optimize overall value for all patients.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Stratification by Genetic Profiling in Patients with Cirrhosis

Prediction of future hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in the sizable chronic liver disease population is an urgent unmet need to enable regular HCC screening for early detection. Germline deoxyribonucleic acid polymorphisms likely represent etiology-specific host factors that determine HCC susceptibility, including single nucleotide polymorphisms in EGF, IFNL3, MICA, and TLL1 in hepatitis C with or without active viral infection, and PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and MBOAT7 in metabolic liver diseases. Transcriptome-based prognostic liver signature in diseased liver tissue has been associated with long-term HCC risk in viral and metabolic etiologies. Transcriptomic signatures of hepatic injury and specific cell type such as aggregated lymphocytes also predict HCC development. Circulating factors such as proteins and their chemical modification, nucleotides, and metabolites may serve for less-invasive assessment of short- or long-term HCC risk. These biomarkers will enable individual HCC risk-based personalized clinical management for cost-effective early HCC detection and improvement of patient survival.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Imaging for Surveillance and Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to compare imaging-based surveillance and diagnostic strategies in patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while taking into account technically inadequate examinations and patient compliance. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A Markov model simulated seven strategies for HCC surveillance and diagnosis in patients with cirrhosis: strategy A, ultrasound (US) for surveillance and CT for diagnosis; strategy B, US for surveillance and complete MRI for diagnosis; strategy C, US for surveillance and CT for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy D, US for surveillance and complete MRI for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy E, surveillance and diagnosis with CT followed by complete MRI for inadequate surveillance; strategy F, surveillance and diagnosis with complete MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance; and strategy G, surveillance with abbreviated MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance or complete MRI for positive surveillance. Two compliance scenarios were evaluated: optimal and conservative. For each scenario, the most cost-effective strategy was based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 (Canadian) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS. Base-case analysis revealed that strategy E was the most cost-effective when compliance was optimal ($13,631/QALY), and strategy G was the most cost-effective when compliance was conservative ($39,681/QALY). Sensitivity analyses supported the base-case analysis in the optimal compliance scenario, but several parameters altered the most cost-effective strategy in the conservative compliance scenario. CONCLUSION. In an optimal compliance scenario, CT for HCC surveillance and diagnosis and complete MRI for inadequate CT was most cost-effective. In a conservative compliance scenario, abbreviated MRI may be an alternative to US-based surveillance.

Changing Epidemiology of HCC: How to Screen and Identify Patients at Risk?

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is dependent on the stage of tumor at diagnosis. The earlier the tumor is found, the higher the chances to offer a curative treatment. In order to diagnose hepatocellular carcinoma early, patients at risk should be enrolled in a surveillance program. The population at risk is usually defined as patients with cirrhosis. These patients should have twice a year a ultrasonographic examination of the liver. However, more and more patients will develop hepatocellular carcinoma in the context of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease which is tightly linked to obesity and diabetes. In these patients, this approach is jeopardized by the difficulty to perform a sonography of good quality due to the obesity and more importantly by the fact that hepatocellular carcinoma occurs frequently in the context of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease before the cirrhosis. This article reviews the impact of the changing epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma on its screening.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Cost-Effective for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in High-Risk Patients With Cirrhosis

Ultrasonography (US) is generally recommended for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients at risk. However, in patients with cirrhosis who have sufficiently high HCC incidence, surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver-specific contrast showed markedly higher sensitivity in detecting early-stage HCC than US. This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of semiannual surveillance using MRI versus US in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to identify the population that would gain optimal cost-effectiveness through MRI surveillance. We designed a Markov model to compare the expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), between MRI and US, with a 20-year time horizon, from the health care system perspective. The starting age of the cohort was 50 years, and 71% had hepatitis B virus-associated cirrhosis. The cycle length was 6 months. Transition probabilities and costs were obtained mainly from a prospective cohort study (the PRIUS study, NCT01446666). Cost and effectiveness were discounted at 5%. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and tested using sensitivity analyses. The cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that the use of MRI incurred $5,562 incremental costs, 0.384 incremental life-years (LYs), and 0.221 incremental QALYs compared to US. The annual HCC incidence was the most influential factor on the ICER. The ICERs were $14,474/LY and $25,202/QALY at an annual HCC incidence of 3%. When the HCC incidence rate was >1.81%, the ICER was below $50,000/QALY. With increased HCC incidence, MRI surveillance was acceptable as a cost-effective option, even with an increased MRI/US cost ratio. Conclusion: Semiannual surveillance using MRI with liver-specific contrast may be more cost-effective than US in patients with virus-associated compensated cirrhosis at sufficiently high HCC risk despite the higher test cost of MRI.

Development of models estimating the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after antiviral treatment for hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Most patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection will undergo antiviral treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). We aimed to develop models estimating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after antiviral treatment.

METHODS

We identified 45,810 patients who initiated antiviral treatment in the Veterans Affairs (VA) national healthcare system from 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2015, including 29,309 (64%) DAA-only regimens and 16,501 (36%) interferon ± DAA regimens. We retrospectively followed patients until 6/15/2017 to identify incident cases of HCC. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to develop and internally validate models predicting HCC risk using baseline characteristics at the time of antiviral treatment.

RESULTS

We identified 1,412 incident cases of HCC diagnosed at least 180 days after initiation of antiviral treatment during a mean follow-up of 2.5 years (range 1.0-7.5 years). Models predicting HCC risk after antiviral treatment were developed and validated separately for four subgroups of patients: cirrhosis/SVR, cirrhosis/no SVR, no cirrhosis/SVR, no cirrhosis/no SVR. Four predictors (age, platelet count, serum aspartate aminotransferase/√alanine aminotransferase ratio and albumin) accounted for most of the models' predictive value, with smaller contributions from sex, race-ethnicity, HCV genotype, body mass index, hemoglobin and serum alpha-fetoprotein. Fitted models were well-calibrated with very good measures of discrimination. Decision curves demonstrated higher net benefit of using model-based HCC risk estimates to determine whether to recommend screening or not compared to the screen-all or screen-none strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated models that estimate HCC risk following antiviral treatment. These models are available as web-based tools that can be used to inform risk-based HCC surveillance strategies in individual patients.

LAY SUMMARY

Most patients with hepatitis C virus have been treated or will be treated with direct-acting antivirals. It is important that we can model the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in these patients, so that we develop the optimum screening strategy that avoids unnecessary screening, while adequately screening those at increased risk. Herein, we have developed and validated models that are available as web-based tools that can be used to guide screening strategies.

Role of Imaging in Surveillance and Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is dependent on tumor stage at diagnosis, with curative treatment options more available to early-detected HCCs. Professional organizations have produced HCC screening guidelines in at-risk groups, with ultrasound the most commonly used screening tool and increased interest in MRI in specific populations. HCC may be diagnosed by imaging features alone and have been universally incorporated into management guidelines. The radiology community has standardized imaging criteria for HCC with the development of the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System, which has expanded to incorporate computed tomography, MR, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound for diagnostic purposes.

Surveillance Imaging and Alpha Fetoprotein for Early Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Society guidelines differ in their recommendations for surveillance to detect early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. We compared the performance of surveillance imaging, with or without alpha fetoprotein (AFP), for early detection of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Two reviewers searched MEDLINE and SCOPUS from January 1990 through August 2016 to identify published sensitivity and specificity of surveillance strategies for overall and early detection of HCC. Pooled estimates were calculated and compared using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random effects model. The study was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies (comprising 13,367 patients) characterized sensitivity of imaging with or without AFP measurement for detection of HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Ultrasound detected any stage HCC with 84% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] 76%-92%), but early-stage HCC with only 47% sensitivity (95% CI 33%-61%). In studies comparing ultrasound with vs without AFP measurement, ultrasound detected any stage HCC with a lower level of sensitivity than ultrasound plus AFP measurement (relative risk [RR] 0.88; 95% CI 0.83-0.93) and early-stage HCC with a lower level of sensitivity than ultrasound plus AFP measurement (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.71-0.93). However, ultrasound alone detected HCC with a higher level of specificity than ultrasound plus AFP measurement (RR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05-1.09). Ultrasound with vs without AFP detected early-stage HCC with 63% sensitivity (95% CI 48%-75%) and 45% sensitivity (95% CI 30%-62%), respectively (P = .002). Only 4 studies evaluated computed tomography or magnetic resonance image-based surveillance, which detected HCC with 84% sensitivity (95% CI 70%-92%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found ultrasound alone has a low sensitivity to detect early stage HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Addition of AFP to ultrasound significantly increases sensitivity of early HCC detection in clinical practice.

Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

Patients who develop chronic fibrotic liver disease, caused by viral or metabolic aetiologies, are at a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even after complete HCC tumour resection or ablation, the carcinogenic tissue microenvironment in the remnant liver can give rise to recurrent de novo HCC tumours, which progress into incurable, advanced-stage disease in most patients. Thus, early detection and prevention of HCC development is, in principle, the most impactful strategy to improve patient prognosis. However, a "one-size-fits-all" approach to HCC screening for early tumour detection, as recommended by clinical practice guidelines, is utilised in less than 20% of the target population, and the performance of screening modalities, including ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, is suboptimal. Furthermore, optimal screening strategies for emerging at-risk patient populations, such as those with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure, or those with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease remain controversial. New HCC biomarkers and imaging modalities may improve the sensitivity and specificity of HCC detection. Clinical and molecular HCC risk scores will enable precise HCC risk prediction followed by tailoured HCC screening of individual patients, maximising cost-effectiveness and optimising allocation of limited medical resources. Several aetiology-specific and generic HCC chemoprevention strategies are evolving. Epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidate chemoprevention targets and therapies, including statins, anti-diabetic drugs, and selective molecular targeted agents, although their clinical testing has been limited by the lengthy process of cancer development that requires long-term, costly studies. Individual HCC risk prediction is expected to overcome the challenge by enabling personalised chemoprevention, targeting high-risk patients for precision HCC prevention and substantially improving the dismal prognosis of HCC.

Diagnostic per-lesion performance of a simulated gadoxetate disodium-enhanced abbreviated MRI protocol for hepatocellular carcinoma screening

AIM

To evaluate the diagnostic per-lesion performance of a simulated gadoxetate disodium-enhanced abbreviated MRI (AMRI) in cirrhotic and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Seventy-nine consecutive patients at risk for HCC due to cirrhosis and/or CHB were included in this retrospective study. For each patient, the first gadoxetate disodium-enhanced MRI between 2008 through 2014 was analysed. Two independent readers read an anonymised abbreviated image set comprising axial T1-weighted (W) images with fat saturation in the hepatobiliary phase, 20 minutes or more after gadoxetate injection, and axial T2W single-shot fast spin echo images. Each observation >10 mm was scored as negative or suspicious for HCC. Inter-reader agreement was assessed. A composite reference standard was used to determine the per-lesion diagnostic performance for each reader.

RESULTS

Inter-reader agreement was substantial (κ = 0.75). The final reference standard showed 27 HCCs in 13 patients (median 21 mm, range 11-100 mm). The two readers each correctly scored 23 as suspicious for HCC (sensitivity = 85.2%), scored a total of 27 and 32 observations as suspicious for HCC (positive predictive value [PPV] = 85.2% and 71.9%), and scored 83 and 78 observations or complete examinations as negative for HCC (negative predictive value [NPV] = 95.2% and 94.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The AMRI protocol provides higher per-lesion sensitivity and NPV than reported values for ultrasound, the current recommended technique for screening, and similar per-lesion sensitivity and PPV to reported values for complete dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI.