Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination

Substantial increase in perceived benefits over harms of COVID-19 outbreak but persistent socioeconomic disparities: Comparison of two cross-sectional surveys in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2021

Background

We have reported both perceived benefits and harms of the COVID-19 outbreak and their socioeconomic disparities amid the pandemic in Hong Kong. We further investigated whether such perceptions and disparities had changed after 10 months.

Methods

Under the Hong Kong Jockey Club SMART Family-Link Project, we conducted two cross-sectional surveys online on perceived personal and family benefits and harms of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong adults in May 2020 (after Wave 2 was under control; N = 4,891) and in February and March 2021 (after Wave 4 was under control; N = 6,013). We collected sociodemographic information, including sex, age, education, household income, and housing. Using multivariate models of analysis of covariance (MANCOVA), we compared perceived benefits and harms and socioeconomic disparities between the two surveys.

Results

Adjusting for sex and age, the prevalence of 17 out of 18 perceived personal and family benefits of COVID-19 outbreak increased (Ps < 0.001). Six of 11 perceived personal and family harms decreased (Ps < 0.001) and 4 increased (Ps < 0.001). The total number of perceived personal and family benefits increased substantially (Ps < 0.001), whereas that of perceived personal harms decreased (P = 0.01) and family harms remained stable (P > 0.05). Socioeconomic disparities, however, persisted-more perceived benefits in those with higher socioeconomic status (Ps < 0.001) and more perceived harms in those with lower (Ps ≤ 0.005).

Conclusion

We have first reported that perceived personal and family benefits of the COVID-19 outbreak increased substantially over 10 months amid the pandemic, while perceived personal and family harms were lower and stable, respectively. Socioeconomic disparities of the perceived benefits and harms persisted, which need to be monitored and addressed urgently.

Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics

Background

During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics.

Methods

We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic.

Findings

Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic.

Interpretation

The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons.

Funding

European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

[Seasonal Influenza - Update on Epidemiology, Prevention and Therapy]

Infection control measures and travel restrictions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have limited the transmission of seasonal influenza viruses as well. It must be assumed that after these public health measures have largely been lifted, influenza activity will sharply increase in the coming influenza season. Anticipating the potentially high number of cases, the co-circulation of influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2, efforts to increase vaccination rates against both infectious diseases must be given more attention.

Influenza Incidence and Vaccine Effectiveness During the Southern Hemisphere Influenza Season - Chile, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected influenza virus transmission, with historically low activity, atypical timing, or altered duration of influenza seasons during 2020-22 (1,2). Community mitigation measures implemented since 2020, including physical distancing and face mask use, have, in part, been credited for low influenza detections globally during the pandemic, compared with those during prepandemic seasons (1). Reduced population exposure to natural influenza infections during 2020-21 and relaxed community mitigation measures after introduction of COVID-19 vaccines could increase the possibility of severe influenza epidemics. Partners in Chile and the United States assessed Southern Hemisphere influenza activity and estimated age-group-specific rates of influenza-attributable hospitalizations and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Chile in 2022. Chile's most recent influenza season began in January 2022, which was earlier than during prepandemic seasons and was associated predominantly with influenza A(H3N2) virus, clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. The cumulative incidence of influenza-attributable pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations was 5.1 per 100,000 person-years during 2022, which was higher than that during 2020-21 but lower than incidence during the 2017-19 influenza seasons. Adjusted VE against influenza A(H3N2)-associated hospitalization was 49%. These findings indicate that influenza activity continues to be disrupted after emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Northern Hemisphere countries might benefit from preparing for an atypical influenza season, which could include early influenza activity with potentially severe disease during the 2022-23 season, especially in the absence of prevention measures, including vaccination. Health authorities should encourage all eligible persons to seek influenza vaccination and take precautions to reduce transmission of influenza (e.g., avoiding close contact with persons who are ill).

A(H3N2) antigenic variation of influenza is associated with low vaccine efficacy in the early 2018 influenza season in Mexico City

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the VE and the mutations of the viruses present in the Mexican population at the beginning of 2018.

METHODS

We diagnosed influenza in outpatients with a high-performance Rapid Influenza Diagnostic Test (RIDT) qRT-PCR. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the study population, while the chi-square test was used to determine clinical variables. VE was analyzed through a negative test design. We sequenced the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, performed a phylogenetic analysis, and analyzed the nonsynonymous substitutions both in and outside antigenic sites.

RESULTS

Of the 240 patients analyzed, 42.5% received the trivalent vaccine, and 37.5% were positive for influenza. The VE for the general population for any influenza virus type or subtype was 37.0%, while the VE for the predominant influenza A(H3N2) subtype was the lowest (19.7%). The phylogenetic analysis of HA showed the co-circulation of clades and subclades 3C.2a1, 3C.2a1b, 3C.2a2, 3C.2a2re, 3C.2a3, and 3C.3a with identities approximately 97-98% similar to the vaccine composition.

CONCLUSION

Low VE was related to the co-circulation of multiple clades and subclades of influenza A(H3N2), with sufficient genetic and phenotypic distance to allow for the infection of vaccinated individuals.

Awareness, knowledge and attitude toward influenza vaccination in several population groups in China: A cross-sectional study

Background

We aimed to comprehensively analyze awareness, knowledge and attitude toward influenza vaccine and the factors associated to vaccine acceptance among the young and middle-aged general population, healthcare workers, and health-related administrators in China. The factors influencing the promotion of influenza vaccination were also evaluated among healthcare workers and administrators.

Methods

This is a multicenter, cross-sectional study. General population adults, healthcare workers (HCWs), and health administrators were enrolled in seven regions across China during the 2020-2021 flu season. Data were collected via an online questionnaire, which included information request as to awareness, knowledge, and attitude toward influenza vaccination. Statistical significance set at p-values < 0.05.

Results

A total of 3,239 individuals were included in our analyses. There were gaps in consciousness to action, especially between awareness (87.1%) and knowledge (57.7%), and between willingness (57.3%) and vaccination (22.3%). The downward trends were similar in all three groups. HCW group and the health administrator group showed more positive propensity to accept influenza vaccines than the general population group. For the general population group, those with a lower educational level (lower than a bachelor's degree) were less likely to be vaccinated (aOR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.45-0.96). For the HCW group, practitioners older than 45 years were more reluctant to be vaccinated than those under 25 years (aOR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.19-0.86). For the health administrator group, personnel aged 26 years and above were less inclined to be vaccinated (aORs = 0.17-0.20). In all groups, people who had received influenza vaccines in the past 5 years (aOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.31-2.26 in general population group, 13.05, 95% CI: 7.71-22.10 in HCW group, and 19.30, 95% CI: 9.66-42.63 in health administrator group) were more likely to be vaccinated in future seasons. People who were not covered by the free program or those without awareness of the related programs were less likely to be vaccinated (aORs < 0.63). Most (70.8%) of HCWs showed intention to recommend the influenza vaccine. Clinical doctors, those who had flu shots themselves, and those who had more knowledge, were more like to make recommendations. Health administrators stated that insufficient budget resources and workforce, and low public awareness are main difficulties in the promotion of influenza vaccine.

Conclusion

The influencing factors of the attitude toward influenza vaccination vary across populations. Governments need to carry out focused vaccination promotion programs, especially for healthcare workers, to improve the coverage of influenza vaccination.

Influenza During the 2010-2020 Decade in the United States: Seasonal Outbreaks and Vaccine Interventions

The 10 years between the last influenza pandemic and start of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic have been marked by great advances in our ability to follow influenza occurrence and determine vaccine effectiveness (VE), largely based on widespread use of the polymerase chain reaction assay. We examine the results, focusing mainly on data from the United States and inactivated vaccines. Surveillance has expanded, resulting in increased ability to characterize circulating viruses and their impact. The surveillance has often confirmed previous observations on timing of outbreaks and age groups affected, which can now be examined in greater detail. Selection of strains for vaccines is now based on enhanced viral characterization using immunologic, virologic, and computational techniques not previously available. Vaccine coverage has been largely stable, but VE has remained modest and, in some years, very low. We discuss ways to improve VE based on existing technology while we work toward supraseasonal vaccines.

Comparison of vaccination efficacy using live or ultraviolet-inactivated influenza viruses introduced by different routes in a mouse model

Influenza is a major cause of highly contagious respiratory illness resulting in high mortality and morbidity worldwide. Annual vaccination is an effective way to prevent infection and complication from constantly mutating influenza strains. Vaccination utilizes preemptive inoculation with live virus, live attenuated virus, inactivated virus, or virus segments for optimal immune activation. The route of administration also affects the efficacy of the vaccination. Here, we evaluated the effects of inoculation with ultraviolet (UV)-inactivated or live influenza A virus strains and compared their effectiveness and cross protection when intraperitoneal and intramuscular routes of administration were used in mice. Intramuscular or intraperitoneal inoculation with UV-inactivated Influenza A/WSN/1933 provided some protection against intranasal challenge with a lethal dose of live Influenza A/WSN/1933 but only when a high dose of the virus was used in the inoculation. By contrast, inoculation with a low dose of live virus via either route provided complete protection against the same intranasal challenge. Intraperitoneal inoculation with live or UV-inactivated Influenza A/Philippines/2/1982 and intramuscular inoculation with UV-inactivated Influenza A/Philippines/2/1982 failed to produce cross-reactive antibodies against Influenza A/WSN/1933. Intramuscular inoculation with live Influenza A/Philippines/2/1982 induced small amounts of cross-reactive antibodies but could not suppress the cytokine storm produced upon intranasal challenge with Influenza A/WSN/1993. None of the tested inoculation conditions provided observable cross protection against intranasal challenge with a different influenza strain. Taken together, vaccination efficacy was affected by the state and dose of the vaccine virus and the route of administration. These results provide practical data for the development of effective vaccines against influenza virus.

Dearth of influenza among older adults admitted with respiratory symptoms in Malaysia during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in 2021

Introduction

Influenza is a common respiratory virus which leads to over 400,000 annual deaths globally. Mortality from influenza is highest among those aged 75 years and over living in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Objective

To determine the burden of influenza among older adults presenting to public hospitals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

This multi-center, prospective, observational study recruited individuals aged 65 years and over who presented to four Malaysian hospitals with SARI from 1 January to 31 December 2021. Those with prior confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were excluded. SARS-CoV-2 was detected through real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with routine diagnostic kits. Influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) viruses were detected with Xpress Flu/RSV kits using the GeneXpert rapid real-time PCR system (Cepheid, USA).

Results

Samples were obtained from 512 participants, comprising 296 (57.8%) men and 216 (42.2%) women, with a mean age (SD) of 74.0 (7.1) years. Inpatient death occurred in 48 (9.6%) individuals. Significant differences existed in age, ethnicity, and comorbidities across study sites. One (0.2%) case of influenza A, two (0.4%) cases of RSV and 63 (12.5%) cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected over the 1-year period. Cases of COVID-19 mirrored national trends derived from open source data, while the dearth of influenza cases mirrored national and global Flunet figures.

Conclusion

Our observational study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic detected only one case of influenza, alongside a high SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate. The poor uptake of influenza vaccination nationally, worsened by the recent pandemic restrictions, could lead to waning immunity from the absence of seasonal exposure. Potentially deadly outbreaks may then occur when lockdown and infection control measures are eventually removed.

Has influenza B/Yamagata become extinct and what implications might this have for quadrivalent influenza vaccines?

While two influenza B virus lineages have co-circulated, B/Yamagata-lineage circulation has not been confirmed since March 2020. The WHO FluNet database indicates that B/Yamagata-lineage detections were reported in 2021 and 2022. However, detections can result from use of quadrivalent live-attenuated vaccines. Of the type B viruses detected post-March 2020, all ascribed to a lineage have been B/Victoria-lineage. There is need for a global effort to detect and lineage-ascribe type B influenza viruses, to assess if B/Yamagata-lineage viruses have become extinct.

A Comparative Analysis of Influenza-Associated Disease Burden with Different Influenza Vaccination Strategies for the Elderly Population in South Korea

Influenza affects all age groups, but the risk of hospitalization and death due to influenza is strongly age-related and is at its highest among the elderly aged 65 years and older. The objective of this study is to compare the differences in influenza-associated disease burden under three different influenza vaccination strategies—the standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), high-dose QIV (HD-QIV), and MF59^®-adjuvanted QIV (aQIV)—for the elderly population aged 65 years and older in South Korea. A one-year decision-tree model was developed to compare influenza disease burdens. The input data for the model were obtained from published literature reviews and surveillance data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The analysis indicated that aQIV is more effective than QIV, preventing 35,390 influenza cases, 1602 influenza-associated complications, 709 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 145 influenza-associated deaths annually. Additionally, aQIV, when compared to HD-QIV, also reduced the influenza-associated burden of disease, preventing 7247 influenza cases, 328 influenza-associated complications, 145 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 30 influenza-associated deaths annually. Switching the vaccination strategy from QIV to aQIV is predicted to reduce the influenza-associated disease burden for the elderly in South Korea. The public health gains from aQIV and HD-QIV are expected to be comparable. Future studies comparing the effectiveness of the vaccines will further inform future vaccination strategies for the elderly in South Korea.

The Role of Psychological Factors and Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs in Influenza Vaccine Hesitancy and Uptake among Jordanian Healthcare Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Vaccination to prevent influenza virus infection and to lessen its severity is recommended among healthcare workers (HCWs). Health professionals have a higher risk of exposure to viruses and could transmit the influenza virus to vulnerable patients who are prone to severe disease and mortality. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the levels of influenza vaccine acceptance and uptake as well as its determinants, among Jordanian HCWs over the last influenza season of 2021/2022. This study was based on a self-administered electronic survey that was distributed in March 2022. Psychological determinants of influenza vaccine acceptance and vaccine conspiracy beliefs were assessed using the previously validated 5C scale questionnaire (confidence, complacency, constraints, calculation and collective responsibility) and the vaccine conspiracy beliefs scale. The study sample comprised a total of 1218 HCWs: nurses (n = 412, 33.8%), physicians (n = 367, 30.1%), medical technicians (n = 182, 14.9%), pharmacists (n = 161, 13.2%) and dentists (n = 87, 7.1%), among others. About two-thirds of the study sample expressed willingness to receive influenza vaccination if provided free of charge (n = 807, 66.3%), whereas less than one-third were willing to pay for the vaccine (n = 388, 31.9%). The self-reported uptake of the influenza vaccine in the last influenza season was 62.8%. The following factors were significantly associated with higher acceptance of influenza vaccination if provided freely, as opposed to vaccine hesitancy/rejection: male sex; physicians and dentists among HCW categories; higher confidence and collective responsibility; and lower complacency, constraints and calculation. Higher influenza vaccine uptake was significantly correlated with nurses and physicians among HCW categories, older age, a higher monthly income, higher confidence and collective responsibility, lower complacency and constraints and lower embrace of general vaccine conspiracy beliefs. The results of the current study can provide helpful clues to improve influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs in Jordan. Consequently, this can help to protect vulnerable patient groups and reserve valuable resources in healthcare settings. Psychological determinants appeared to be the most significant factors for vaccine acceptance and uptake, whereas the embrace of general vaccine conspiracy beliefs was associated with lower rates of influenza vaccine uptake, which should be considered in educational and interventional measures aiming to promote influenza vaccination.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on influenza surveillance: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Influenza activity was reported to be below the seasonal levels during the Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic globally. However, during the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus-2 outbreak, the routine real-time surveillance of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory infection was adversely affected due to the changes in priorities, economic constraints, repurposing of hospitals for COVID care, and closure of outpatient services.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out to assess the pooled proportion of symptomatic cases tested for influenza virus before the current pandemic in 2019 and during the pandemic in 2020/21. An electronic search of PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Google Scholar was carried out for the articles reporting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on influenza surveillance among humans using search terms. The study was designed based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines and the meta-analysis was performed to synthesize the pooled proportion of patients sampled for influenza with 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

The nine qualified studies from the WHO European region, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, South Africa, and the United States were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. The overall pooled proportion of symptomatic cases sampled for influenza surveillance before and during the pandemic was 2.38% (95% CI 2.08%-2.67%) and 4.18% (95% CI 3.8%-4.52%), respectively. However, the pooled proportion of samples tested for influenza before the pandemic was 0.69% (95% CI 0.45%-0.92%) and during the pandemic was 0.48% (95% CI 0.28%-0.68%) when studies from Canada were excluded.

Conclusion

The meta-analysis concludes that globally there was a decline in influenza surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic except in Canada.