Understanding the cholera epidemic, Haiti

Current issues and priorities in childhood nutrition, growth, and infections

Forty-five percent of the 6.6 million under-5 deaths in 2012 were attributable to infectious disease, of which pneumonia and diarrhea were the leading causes. Despite the close interrelation between these infections and nutrition conditions, key nutrition interventions for prevention of childhood diarrhea and pneumonia have not received deserved attention, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Several interventions and strategies can effectively address these issues but are not available to those in need. This article discusses in detail the burden and trends of global under-5 mortality, infections, and nutrition conditions; etiology and associated risk factors; biological plausibility and the interrelation between infections, nutrition, and growth; and existing interventions and strategies to reduce major childhood infections and improve nutrition and growth and implications.

The Cpx system regulates virulence gene expression in Vibrio cholerae

Bacteria possess signal transduction pathways capable of sensing and responding to a wide variety of signals. The Cpx envelope stress response, composed of the sensor histidine kinase CpxA and the response regulator CpxR, senses and mediates adaptation to insults to the bacterial envelope. The Cpx response has been implicated in the regulation of a number of envelope-localized virulence determinants across bacterial species. Here, we show that activation of the Cpx pathway in Vibrio cholerae El Tor strain C6706 leads to a decrease in expression of the major virulence factors in this organism, cholera toxin (CT) and the toxin-coregulated pilus (TCP). Our results indicate that this occurs through the repression of production of the ToxT regulator and an additional upstream transcription factor, TcpP. The effect of the Cpx response on CT and TCP expression is mostly abrogated in a cyclic AMP receptor protein (CRP) mutant, although expression of the crp gene is unaltered. Since TcpP production is controlled by CRP, our data suggest a model whereby the Cpx response affects CRP function, which leads to diminished TcpP, ToxT, CT, and TCP production.

Using mobile phone data to predict the spatial spread of cholera

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains.

On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic

Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. We address the above issue in a formal model comparison framework and provide a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels and coupling mechanisms. Reference is made to records of the recent Haiti cholera epidemics. Our intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have better explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to-intermediate calibration windows, while parsimonious, spatially disconnected models perform better with long training sets. On average, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management.

Detection of Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 in environmental waters of rural Bangladesh: a flow-cytometry-based field trial

Presence of Vibrio cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 in the waters of the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh, was investigated with quantitative measurements performed with a portable flow cytometer. The relevance of this work relates to the testing of a field-adapted measurement protocol that might prove useful for cholera epidemic surveillance and for validation of mathematical models. Water samples were collected from different water bodies that constitute the hydrological system of the region, a well-known endemic area for cholera. Water was retrieved from ponds, river waters, and irrigation canals during an inter-epidemic time period. Each sample was filtered and analysed with a flow cytometer for a fast determination of V. cholerae cells contained in those environments. More specifically, samples were treated with O1- and O139-specific antibodies, which allowed precise flow-cytometry-based concentration measurements. Both serogroups were present in the environmental waters with a consistent dominance of V. cholerae O1. These results extend earlier studies where V. cholerae O1 and O139 were mostly detected during times of cholera epidemics using standard culturing techniques. Furthermore, our results confirm that an important fraction of the ponds' host populations of V. cholerae are able to self-sustain even when cholera cases are scarce. Those contaminated ponds may constitute a natural reservoir for cholera endemicity in the Matlab region. Correlations of V. cholerae concentrations with environmental factors and the spatial distribution of V. cholerae populations are also discussed.

Genetic traits of Vibrio cholerae O1 Haitian isolates that are absent in contemporary strains from Kolkata, India

The world's worst cholera epidemic in Haiti (2010) coerced to trace the origin and dissemination of the causative agent Vibrio cholerae O1 for proper management of cholera. Sequence analysis of the Haitian strain showed several variations in the genes encoding cholera toxin B subunit (ctxB); toxin-co-regulated pilus (tcpA), repeat in toxins (rtxA), quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of gyrase A (gyrA), rstB of RS element along with the change in the number of repeat sequences at the promoter region of ctxAB. Our earlier studies showed that variant tcpA (tcpA CIRS) and ctxB (ctxB7) first appeared in Kolkata during 2003 and 2006, respectively. The present study revealed that a variant rtxA was first isolated in Kolkata during 2004 and probably formed the genetic background for the emergence of the ctxB7 allele as we were unable to detect a single strain with the combination of El Tor rtxA and ctxB7. The variant gyrA was first time detected in Kolkata during 1994. The Kolkata strains contained four heptad repeats (TTTTGAT) in their CT promoter regions whereas Haitian strains carried 5 heptad repeats. Haitian strains had 3 nucleotide deletions at the rstB gene, which is a unique feature of the classical biotype strains. But the Kolkata strains did not have such deletion mutations in the rstB. Our study demonstrated the existence of some Haitian genetic traits in Kolkata isolates along with the dissimilarities in genomic content with respect to rstB and ctxAB promoter region. Finally, we conclude that Haitian variant strain may be evolved due to sequential event in the Indian subcontinent strain with some cryptic modification in the genome.

Descriptive characterization of the 2010 cholera outbreak in Nigeria

Background

In 2010, 18 States of Nigeria reported cholera outbreaks with a total of 41,787 cases including 1,716 deaths (case-fatality rate [CFR]: 4.1%). This exceeded the mean overall CFR of 2.4% reported in Africa from 2000–2005 and the WHO acceptable rate of 1%. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the 2010 cholera outbreak to determine its epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics.

Methods

We conducted retrospective analysis of line lists obtained from 10 of the 18 states that submitted line lists to the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH). We described the outbreak by time, place and person and calculated the attack rates by state as well as the age- and sex-specific CFR from cholera cases for whom information on age, sex, place of residence, onset of symptoms and outcome were available.

Results

A total of 21,111 cases were reported with an overall attack rate and CFR of 47.8 cases /100,000 population and 5.1%, respectively. The CFR ranged in the states between 3.8% and 8.9%. The age-specific CFR was highest among individuals 65 years and above (14.6%). The epidemiological curve showed three peaks with increasing number of weekly reported cases. A geographical clustering of LGAs reporting cholera cases could be seen in all ten states. During the third peak which coincided with flooding in five states the majority of newly affected LGAs were situated next to LGAs with previously reported cholera cases, only few isolated outbreaks were seen.

Conclusion

Our study showed a cholera outbreak that grew in magnitude and spread to involve the whole northern part of the country. It also highlights challenges of suboptimal surveillance and response in developing countries as well as potential endemicity of cholera in the northern part of Nigeria. There is the need for a harmonized, coordinated approach to cholera outbreaks through effective surveillance and response with emphasis on training and motivating front line health workers towards timely detection, reporting and response. Findings from the report should be interpreted with caution due to the high number of cases with incomplete information, and lack of data from eight states.

Cholera outbreaks in the El Tor biotype era and the impact of the new El Tor variants

Vibrio cholerae O1, the causative agent of the disease cholera, has two biotypes namely the classical and El Tor. Biotype is a subspecific taxonomic classification of V. cholerae O1. Differentiation of V. cholerae strains into biotype does not alter the clinical management of cholera but is of immense public health and epidemiological importance in identifying the source and spread of infection, particularly when V. cholerae is first isolated in a country or geographic area. From recorded history, till date, the world has experienced seven pandemics of cholera. Among these, the first six pandemics are believed to have been caused by the classical biotype whereas the ongoing seventh pandemic is caused by the El Tor biotype. In recent years, new pathogenic variants of V. cholerae have emerged and spread throughout many Asian and African countries with corresponding cryptic changes in the epidemiology of cholera. In this chapter, we describe the outbreaks during the seventh pandemic El Tor biotype era spanning more than five decades along with the recent advances in our understanding of the development, evolution, spread, and impact of the new variants of El Tor strains.

Genomic epidemiology of the Haitian cholera outbreak: a single introduction followed by rapid, extensive, and continued spread characterized the onset of the epidemic

For centuries, cholera has been one of the most feared diseases. The causative agent Vibrio cholerae is a waterborne Gram-negative enteric pathogen eliciting a severe watery diarrheal disease. In October 2010, the seventh pandemic reached Haiti, a country that had not experienced cholera for more than a century. By using whole-genome sequence typing and mapping strategies of 116 serotype O1 strains from global sources, including 44 Haitian genomes, we present a detailed reconstructed evolutionary history of the seventh pandemic with a focus on the Haitian outbreak. We catalogued subtle genomic alterations at the nucleotide level in the genome core and architectural rearrangements from whole-genome map comparisons. Isolates closely related to the Haitian isolates caused several recent outbreaks in southern Asia. This study provides evidence for a single-source introduction of cholera from Nepal into Haiti followed by rapid, extensive, and continued clonal expansion. The phylogeographic patterns in both southern Asia and Haiti argue for the rapid dissemination of V. cholerae across the landscape necessitating real-time surveillance efforts to complement the whole-genome epidemiological analysis. As eradication efforts move forward, phylogeographic knowledge will be important for identifying persistent sources and monitoring success at regional levels. The results of molecular and epidemiological analyses of this outbreak suggest that an indigenous Haitian source of V. cholerae is unlikely and that an indigenous source has not contributed to the genomic evolution of this clade.

In this genomic epidemiology study, we have applied high-resolution whole-genome-based sequence typing methodologies on a comprehensive set of genome sequences that have become available in the aftermath of the Haitian cholera epidemic. These sequence resources enabled us to reassess the degree of genomic heterogeneity within the Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype and to refine boundaries and evolutionary relationships. The established phylogenomic framework showed how outbreak isolates fit into the global phylogeographic patterns compared to a comprehensive globally and temporally diverse strain collection and provides strong molecular evidence that points to a nonindigenous source of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak and refines epidemiological standards used in outbreak investigations for outbreak inclusion/exclusion following the concept of genomic epidemiology. The generated phylogenomic data have major public health relevance in translating sequence-based information to assist in future diagnostic, epidemiological, surveillance, and forensic studies of cholera.

Modelling and control of cholera on networks with a common water source

A mathematical model is formulated for the transmission and spread of cholera in a heterogeneous host population that consists of several patches of homogeneous host populations sharing a common water source. The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is derived and shown to determine whether or not cholera dies out. Explicit formulas are derived for target/type reproduction numbers that measure the control strategies required to eradicate cholera from all patches.

Blurred lines: accountability and responsibility in post-earthquake Haiti

Allegations that International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) are not accountable to the populations they assist have followed several humanitarian operations, and the 2010 Haiti Earthquake was no exception. In response, initiatives such as the Humanitarian Accountability Partnership guided agencies' efforts to become more accountable. Results of mechanisms implemented by two INGOs showed that although conditions were created for people to raise concerns, the ability of Haitians to obtain a response from the agencies was limited. The research found that while in principle agencies have the best interests of affected populations as their aim, fragmentation and power asymmetries within the humanitarian sector create conditions wherein agencies define the limits of what they are responsible for and, consequently, what they can be held accountable for. This literature review shows that without agencies' recognition of the responsibility that comes with power, no initiatives will enhance a more coherent vision to improving their accountability.

Disease invasion on community networks with environmental pathogen movement

The ability of disease to invade a community network that is connected by environmental pathogen movement is examined. Each community is modeled by a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) framework that includes an environmental pathogen reservoir, and the communities are connected by pathogen movement on a strongly connected, weighted, directed graph. Disease invasibility is determined by the basic reproduction number R(0) for the domain. The domain R(0) is computed through a Laurent series expansion, with perturbation parameter corresponding to the ratio of the pathogen decay rate to the rate of water movement. When movement is fast relative to decay, R(0) is determined by the product of two weighted averages of the community characteristics. The weights in these averages correspond to the network structure through the rooted spanning trees of the weighted, directed graph. Clustering of disease "hot spots" influences disease invasibility. In particular, clustering hot spots together according to a generalization of the group inverse of the Laplacian matrix facilitates disease invasion.

Widespread epidemic cholera caused by a restricted subset of Vibrio cholerae clones

Since 1817, seven cholera pandemics have plagued humankind. As the causative agent, Vibrio cholerae, is autochthonous in the aquatic ecosystem and some studies have revealed links between outbreaks and fluctuations in climatic and aquatic conditions, it has been widely assumed that cholera epidemics are triggered by environmental factors that promote the growth of local bacterial reservoirs. However, mounting epidemiological findings and genome sequence analysis of clinical isolates have indicated that epidemics are largely unassociated with most of the V. cholerae strains in aquatic ecosystems. Instead, only a specific subset of V. cholerae El Tor 'types' appears to be responsible for current epidemics. A recent report examining the evolution of a variety of V. cholerae strains indicates that the current pandemic is monophyletic and originated from a single ancestral clone that has spread globally in successive waves. In this review, we examine the clonal nature of the disease, with the example of the recent history of cholera in the Americas. Epidemiological data and genome sequence-based analysis of V. cholerae isolates demonstrate that the cholera epidemics of the 1990s in South America were triggered by the importation of a pathogenic V. cholerae strain that gradually spread throughout the region until local outbreaks ceased in 2001. Latin America remained almost unaffected by the disease until a new toxigenic V. cholerae clone was imported into Haiti in 2010. Overall, cholera appears to be largely caused by a subset of specific V. cholerae clones rather than by the vast diversity of V. cholerae strains in the environment.

Importance of cholera and other etiologies of acute diarrhea in post-earthquake Port-au-Prince, Haiti

We estimated the proportion of diarrhea attributable to cholera and other pathogens during the rainy and dry seasons in patients seen in two urban health settings: a cholera treatment center (CTC) and oral rehydration points (ORPs). During April 1, 2011-November 30, 2012, stool samples were collected from 1,206 of 10,845 patients who came to the GHESKIO CTC or to the community ORPs with acute diarrhea, cultured for Vibrio cholerae, and tested by multiplex polymerase reaction. Vibrio cholerae was isolated from 409 (41.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 38.7-44.9%) of the 979 specimens from the CTC and in 45 (19.8%, 95% CI = 14.8-25.6%) of the 227 specimens from the ORPs. Frequencies varied from 21.4% (95% CI = 16.6-26.7%) during the dry season to 46.8% (95% CI = 42.9-50.7%) in the rainy season. Shigella, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, rotavirus, and Cryptosporidium were frequent causes of diarrhea in children less than five years of age.

Environmental determinants of cholera outbreaks in inland Africa: a systematic review of main transmission foci and propagation routes

Cholera is generally regarded as the prototypical waterborne and environmental disease. In Africa, available studies are scarce, and the relevance of this disease paradigm is questionable. Cholera outbreaks have been repeatedly reported far from the coasts: from 2009 through 2011, three-quarters of all cholera cases in Africa occurred in inland regions. Such outbreaks are either influenced by rainfall and subsequent floods or by drought- and water-induced stress. Their concurrence with global climatic events has also been observed. In lakes and rivers, aquatic reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae have been evocated. However, the role of these reservoirs in cholera epidemiology has not been established. Starting from inland cholera-endemic areas, epidemics burst and spread to various environments, including crowded slums and refugee camps. Human displacements constitute a major determinant of this spread. Further studies are urgently needed to better understand these complex dynamics, improve water and sanitation efforts, and eliminate cholera from Africa.

Seroepidemiologic survey of epidemic cholera in Haiti to assess spectrum of illness and risk factors for severe disease

To assess the spectrum of illness from toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 and risk factors for severe cholera in Haiti, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a rural commune with more than 21,000 residents. During March 22–April 6, 2011, we interviewed 2,622 residents ≥ 2 years of age and tested serum specimens from 2,527 (96%) participants for vibriocidal and antibodies against cholera toxin; 18% of participants reported a cholera diagnosis, 39% had vibriocidal titers ≥ 320, and 64% had vibriocidal titers ≥ 80, suggesting widespread infection. Among seropositive participants (vibriocidal titers ≥ 320), 74.5% reported no diarrhea and 9.0% had severe cholera (reported receiving intravenous fluids and overnight hospitalization). This high burden of severe cholera is likely explained by the lack of pre-existing immunity in this population, although the virulence of the atypical El Tor strain causing the epidemic and other factors might also play a role.

Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches

Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. A strong relationship between rainfall and cholera was found for all spatial scales and locations examined. Increased rainfall was significantly correlated with increased cholera incidence 4-7 days later. Forcing the dynamic models with rainfall data resulted in good fits to the cholera case data, and rainfall-based predictions from the dynamic models closely matched observed cholera cases. These models provide a tool for planning and managing the epidemic as it continues.

Risk factors for cholera transmission in Haiti during inter-peak periods: insights to improve current control strategies from two case-control studies

Two community-based density case-control studies were performed to assess risk factors for cholera transmission during inter-peak periods of the ongoing epidemic in two Haitian urban settings, Gonaives and Carrefour. The strongest associations were: close contact with cholera patients (sharing latrines, visiting cholera patients, helping someone with diarrhoea), eating food from street vendors and washing dishes with untreated water. Protective factors were: drinking chlorinated water, receiving prevention messages via television, church or training sessions, and high household socioeconomic level. These findings suggest that, in addition to contaminated water, factors related to direct and indirect inter-human contact play an important role in cholera transmission during inter-peak periods. In order to reduce cholera transmission in Haiti intensive preventive measures such as hygiene promotion and awareness campaigns should be implemented during inter-peak lulls, when prevention activities are typically scaled back.

Healthcare environments and spatial variability of healthcare associated infection risk: cross-sectional surveys

Prevalence of healthcare associated infections remains high in patients in intensive care units (ICU), estimated at 23.4% in 2011. It is important to reduce the overall risk while minimizing the cost and disruption to service provision by targeted infection control interventions. The aim of this study was to develop a monitoring tool to analyze the spatial variability of bacteriological contamination within the healthcare environment to assist in the planning of interventions. Within three cross-sectional surveys, in two ICU wards, air and surface samples from different heights and locations were analyzed. Surface sampling was carried out with tryptic Soy Agar contact plates and Total Viable Counts (TVC) were calculated at 48hrs (incubation at 37°C). TVCs were analyzed using Poisson Generalized Additive Mixed Model for surface type analysis, and for spatial analysis. Through three cross-sectional survey, 370 samples were collected. Contamination varied from place-to-place, height-to-height, and by surface type. Hard-to-reach surfaces, such as bed wheels and floor area under beds, were generally more contaminated, but the height level at which maximal TVCs were found changed between cross-sectional surveys. Bedside locations and bed occupation were risk factors for contamination. Air sampling identified clusters of contamination around the nursing station and surface sampling identified contamination clusters at numerous bed locations. By investigating dynamic hospital wards, the methodology employed in this study will be useful to monitor contamination variability within the healthcare environment and should help to assist in the planning of interventions.

A study on the geophylogeny of clinical and environmental Vibrio cholerae in Kenya

Cholera remains a significant public health challenge in many sub-Saharan countries including Kenya. We have performed a combination of phylogenetic and phenotypic analysis based on whole genome DNA sequences derived from 40 environmental and 57 clinical V. cholerae from different regions of Kenya isolated between 2005 and 2010. Some environmental and all clinical isolates mapped back onto wave three of the monophyletic seventh pandemic V. cholerae El Tor phylogeny but other environmental isolates were phylogenetically very distinct. Thus, the genomes of the Kenyan V. cholerae O1 El Tor isolates are clonally related to other El Tor V. cholerae isolated elsewhere in the world and similarly harbour antibiotic resistance-associated STX elements. Further, the Kenyan O1 El Tor isolates fall into two distinct clades that may have entered Kenya independently.

No Evidence of Significant Levels of Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in the Haitian Aquatic Environment During the 2012 Rainy Season

BACKGROUND

On October 21, 2010, Haiti was struck by a cholera epidemic for the first time in over a century. Epidemiological and molecular genetic data have clearly demonstrated that the bacterium was imported. Nevertheless, the persistence of the epidemic for more than two years, the high incidence rates in some coastal areas and the seasonal exacerbations of the epidemic during the rainy seasons have prompted us to examine the levels of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in the Haitian aquatic environment.

METHODS

In July 2012, during the warm and rainy season, 36 aquatic stations were sampled to search for toxigenic V. cholerae. These stations included fresh, brackish and saline surface waters as well as waste water; the sampling sites were located in both rural and urban areas (around Port-au-Prince and Gonaïves) located in the West and Artibonite Departments. V. cholerae bacteria were detected in enrichment cultures of water samples (sample volumes included 1 L, 100 mL, 10 mL, 1 mL, 0.1 mL, 0.01 mL and 0.001 mL depending on the context). Detection methods included both culture on selective agar (for strain isolation) and PCR assays targeting the genes ompW (V. cholerae species), O1-rfb and O139-rfb (O1 and O139 V. cholerae serogroups, respectively), and the cholera toxin gene ctxA, which is present exclusively in toxigenic cholera strains.

RESULTS

A total of 411 culturable V. cholerae isolates from 29 stations were obtained via selective culture; however, only one of these isolates displayed a late positive reaction with polyvalent anti-O1 serum. Positive V. cholerae PCR results were obtained from each of the 32 tested stations (a total of 77 enrichments out of 107 yielded a positive result); only one sample yielded a positive V. cholerae O1 PCR result. The cholera toxin gene ctxA was never detected via PCR with either primer pair, which includes samples derived from the two stations yielding positive O1 culture or positive O1 PCR results. Therefore, we could not demonstrate the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 among the 36 stations sampled. This suggests that all water samples analyzed contained less than 10 toxigenic V. cholerae O1 bacteria per liter, a level 1000-fold below the dose that has been shown to provoke cholera in healthy adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently, there is no evidence of a significant level of contamination of the aquatic environment in Haiti by the imported toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strain. The reemergence of cholera outbreaks in Haiti during rainy seasons is therefore more likely due to persisting outbreaks insufficiently tackled during the dry periods rather than the commonly suspected aquatic reservoir of toxigenic bacteria.

Modern cholera in the Americas: an opportunistic societal infection

In the Americas, the only two cholera epidemics of the past century have occurred in the past 25 years. Lessons from the 1991 Peruvian cholera epidemic can help to focus and refine the response to the current Haitian epidemic. After three years of acute epidemic response, we have an opportunity to refocus on the chronic conditions that make societies vulnerable to cholera. More importantly, even as international attention wanes in the aftermath of the earthquake and acute epidemic, we are faced with a need for continued and coordinated investment in improving Haiti's structural defenses against cholera, in particular access to improved water and sanitation.

Environmental factors influencing epidemic cholera

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks.

Interventions to address deaths from childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea equitably: what works and at what cost?

Global mortality in children younger than 5 years has fallen substantially in the past two decades from more than 12 million in 1990, to 6·9 million in 2011, but progress is inconsistent between countries. Pneumonia and diarrhoea are the two leading causes of death in this age group and have overlapping risk factors. Several interventions can effectively address these problems, but are not available to those in need. We systematically reviewed evidence showing the effectiveness of various potential preventive and therapeutic interventions against childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia, and relevant delivery strategies. We used the Lives Saved Tool model to assess the effect on mortality when these interventions are applied. We estimate that if implemented at present annual rates of increase in each of the 75 Countdown countries, these interventions and packages of care could save 54% of diarrhoea and 51% of pneumonia deaths by 2025 at a cost of US$3·8 billion. However, if coverage of these key evidence-based interventions were scaled up to at least 80%, and that for immunisations to at least 90%, 95% of diarrhoea and 67% of pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years could be eliminated by 2025 at a cost of $6·715 billion. New delivery platforms could promote equitable access and community platforms are important catalysts in this respect. Furthermore, several of these interventions could reduce morbidity and overall burden of disease, with possible benefits for developmental outcomes.

A ubiquitous method for street scale spatial data collection and analysis in challenging urban environments: mapping health risks using spatial video in Haiti

BACKGROUND

Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti.

METHODS

Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions.

RESULTS

Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots".

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio-temporal dynamics of the communities. Its simplicity should also be used to encourage local participatory collaborations.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cholera during the first year of the epidemic in Haiti

BACKGROUND

In October 2010, cholera importation in Haiti triggered an epidemic that rapidly proved to be the world's largest epidemic of the seventh cholera pandemic. To establish effective control and elimination policies, strategies rely on the analysis of cholera dynamics. In this report, we describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of cholera and the associated environmental factors.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Cholera-associated morbidity and mortality data were prospectively collected at the commune level according to the World Health Organization standard definition. Attack and mortality rates were estimated and mapped to assess epidemic clusters and trends. The relationships between environmental factors were assessed at the commune level using multivariate analysis. The global attack and mortality rates were 488.9 cases/10,000 inhabitants and 6.24 deaths/10,000 inhabitants, respectively. Attack rates displayed a significantly high level of spatial heterogeneity (varying from 64.7 to 3070.9 per 10,000 inhabitants), thereby suggesting disparate outbreak processes. The epidemic course exhibited two principal outbreaks. The first outbreak (October 16, 2010-January 30, 2011) displayed a centrifugal spread of a damping wave that suddenly emerged from Mirebalais. The second outbreak began at the end of May 2011, concomitant with the onset of the rainy season, and displayed a highly fragmented epidemic pattern. Environmental factors (river and rice fields: p<0.003) played a role in disease dynamics exclusively during the early phases of the epidemic.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that the epidemic is still evolving, with a changing transmission pattern as time passes. Such an evolution could have hardly been anticipated, especially in a country struck by cholera for the first time. These results argue for the need for control measures involving intense efforts in rapid and exhaustive case tracking.

Molecular characterization of high-level-cholera-toxin-producing El Tor variant Vibrio cholerae strains in the Zanzibar Archipelago of Tanzania

Analysis of 1,180 diarrheal stool samples in Zanzibar detected 247 Vibrio cholerae O1, Ogawa strains in 2009. Phenotypic traits and PCR-based detection of rstR, rtxC, and tcpA alleles showed that they belonged to the El Tor biotype. Genetic analysis of ctxB of these strains revealed that they were classical type, and production of classical cholera toxin B (CTB) was confirmed by Western blotting. These strains produced more CT than the prototype El Tor and formed a separate cluster by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis.

Health systems' "surge capacity": state of the art and priorities for future research

CONTEXT

Over the past decade, a number of high-impact natural hazard events, together with the increased recognition of pandemic risks, have intensified interest in health systems' ability to prepare for, and cope with, "surges" (sudden large-scale escalations) in treatment needs. In this article, we identify key concepts and components associated with this emerging research theme. We consider the requirements for a standardized conceptual framework for future research capable of informing policy to reduce the morbidity and mortality impacts of such incidents. Here our objective is to appraise the consistency and utility of existing conceptualizations of health systems' surge capacity and their components, with a view to standardizing concepts and measurements to enable future research to generate a cumulative knowledge base for policy and practice.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on concepts of health systems' surge capacity, with a narrative summary of key concepts relevant to public health.

FINDINGS

The academic literature on surge capacity demonstrates considerable variation in its conceptualization, terms, definitions, and applications. This, together with an absence of detailed and comparable data, has hampered efforts to develop standardized conceptual models, measurements, and metrics. Some degree of consensus is evident for the components of surge capacity, but more work is needed to integrate them. The overwhelming concentration in the United States complicates the generalizability of existing approaches and findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The concept of surge capacity is a useful addition to the study of health systems' disaster and/or pandemic planning, mitigation, and response, and it has far-reaching policy implications. Even though research in this area has grown quickly, it has yet to fulfill its potential to generate knowledge to inform policy. Work is needed to generate robust conceptual and analytical frameworks, along with innovations in data collection and methodological approaches that enhance health systems' readiness for, and response to, unpredictable high-consequence surges in demand.

Cholera surveillance during the Haiti epidemic--the first 2 years

BACKGROUND

In October 2010, nearly 10 months after a devastating earthquake, Haiti was stricken by epidemic cholera. Within days after detection, the Ministry of Public Health and Population established a National Cholera Surveillance System (NCSS).

METHODS

The NCSS used a modified World Health Organization case definition for cholera that included acute watery diarrhea, with or without vomiting, in persons of all ages residing in an area in which at least one case of Vibrio cholerae O1 infection had been confirmed by culture.

RESULTS

Within 29 days after the first report, cases of V. cholerae O1 (serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor) were confirmed in all 10 administrative departments (similar to states or provinces) in Haiti. Through October 20, 2012, the public health ministry reported 604,634 cases of infection, 329,697 hospitalizations, and 7436 deaths from cholera and isolated V. cholerae O1 from 1675 of 2703 stool specimens tested (62.0%). The cumulative attack rate was 5.1% at the end of the first year and 6.1% at the end of the second year. The cumulative case fatality rate consistently trended downward, reaching 1.2% at the close of year 2, with departmental cumulative rates ranging from 0.6% to 4.6% (median, 1.4%). Within 3 months after the start of the epidemic, the rolling 14-day case fatality rate was 1.0% and remained at or below this level with few, brief exceptions. Overall, the cholera epidemic in Haiti accounted for 57% of all cholera cases and 53% of all cholera deaths reported to the World Health Organization in 2010 and 58% of all cholera cases and 37% of all cholera deaths in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

A review of NCSS data shows that during the first 2 years of the cholera epidemic in Haiti, the cumulative attack rate was 6.1%, with cases reported in all 10 departments. Within 3 months after the first case was reported, there was a downward trend in mortality, with a 14-day case fatality rate of 1.0% or less in most areas.

Rise of the microbes

Infectious diseases continue to plague the modern world. In the evolutionary arms race of pathogen emergence, the rules of engagement appear to have suddenly changed. Human activities have collided with nature to hasten the emergence of more potent pathogens from natural microbial populations. This is evident in recent infectious disease outbreaks, the events that led to their origin, and lessons learned: influenza (2009), meningitis (Africa, 2009), cholera (Haiti, 2010), E. coli (Germany, 2011) and Salmonella (USA, 2012). Developing a comprehensive control plan requires an understanding of the genetics, epidemiology and evolution of emergent pathogens for which humans have little or no pre-existing immunity. As we plot our next move, nature's genetic lottery continues, providing the fuel to transform the most unlikely infectious disease scenarios into reality.

Cholera in Haiti: reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an () <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

The cholera outbreak in Haiti: where and how did it begin?

In October 2010, cholera appeared in Haiti for the first time in nearly a century. The Secretary-General of the United Nations formed an Independent Panel to "investigate and seek to determine the source of the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti". To fulfill this mandate, the Panel conducted concurrent epidemiological, water and sanitation, and molecular analysis investigations. Our May 2011 findings indicated that the 2010 Haiti cholera outbreak was caused by bacteria introduced into Haiti as a result of human activity; more specifically by the contamination of the Meye Tributary System of the Artibonite River with a pathogenic strain of the current South Asian type Vibrio cholerae. Recommendations were presented to assist in preventing the future introduction and spread of cholera in Haiti and worldwide. In this chapter, we discuss both the results of the Independent Panel's investigation and the context the report sat within; including background information, responses to the report's release, additional research subsequent to our report, and the public health implications of the Haiti cholera epidemic.

Activation of cholera toxin production by anaerobic respiration of trimethylamine N-oxide in Vibrio cholerae

Vibrio cholerae is a gram-negative bacterium that causes cholera. Although the pathogenesis caused by this deadly pathogen takes place in the intestine, commonly thought to be anaerobic, anaerobiosis-induced virulence regulations are not fully elucidated. Anerobic growth of the V. cholerae strain, N16961, was promoted when trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) was used as an alternative electron acceptor. Strikingly, cholera toxin (CT) production was markedly induced during anaerobic TMAO respiration. N16961 mutants unable to metabolize TMAO were incapable of producing CT, suggesting a mechanistic link between anaerobic TMAO respiration and CT production. TMAO reductase is transported to the periplasm via the twin arginine transport (TAT) system. A similar defect in both anaerobic TMAO respiration and CT production was also observed in a N16961 TAT mutant. In contrast, the abilities to grow on TMAO and to produce CT were not affected in a mutant of the general secretion pathway. This suggests that V. cholerae may utilize the TAT system to secrete CT during TMAO respiration. During anaerobic growth with TMAO, N16961 cells exhibit green fluorescence when stained with 2',7'-dichlorofluorescein diacetate, a specific dye for reactive oxygen species (ROS). Furthermore, CT production was decreased in the presence of an ROS scavenger suggesting a positive role of ROS in regulating CT production. When TMAO was co-administered to infant mice infected with N16961, the mice exhibited more severe pathogenic symptoms. Together, our results reveal a novel anaerobic growth condition that stimulates V. cholerae to produce its major virulence factor.

High depth, whole-genome sequencing of cholera isolates from Haiti and the Dominican Republic

Background

Whole-genome sequencing is an important tool for understanding microbial evolution and identifying the emergence of functionally important variants over the course of epidemics. In October 2010, a severe cholera epidemic began in Haiti, with additional cases identified in the neighboring Dominican Republic. We used whole-genome approaches to sequence four Vibrio cholerae isolates from Haiti and the Dominican Republic and three additional V. cholerae isolates to a high depth of coverage (>2000x); four of the seven isolates were previously sequenced.

Results

Using these sequence data, we examined the effect of depth of coverage and sequencing platform on genome assembly and identification of sequence variants. We found that 50x coverage is sufficient to construct a whole-genome assembly and to accurately call most variants from 100 base pair paired-end sequencing reads. Phylogenetic analysis between the newly sequenced and thirty-three previously sequenced V. cholerae isolates indicates that the Haitian and Dominican Republic isolates are closest to strains from South Asia. The Haitian and Dominican Republic isolates form a tight cluster, with only four variants unique to individual isolates. These variants are located in the CTX region, the SXT region, and the core genome. Of the 126 mutations identified that separate the Haiti-Dominican Republic cluster from the V. cholerae reference strain (N16961), 73 are non-synonymous changes, and a number of these changes cluster in specific genes and pathways.

Conclusions

Sequence variant analyses of V. cholerae isolates, including multiple isolates from the Haitian outbreak, identify coverage-specific and technology-specific effects on variant detection, and provide insight into genomic change and functional evolution during an epidemic.

Crystal structure of the VgrG1 actin cross-linking domain of the Vibrio cholerae type VI secretion system

Vibrio cholerae is the cause of the diarrheal disease cholera. V. cholerae produces RtxA, a large toxin of the MARTX family, which is targeted to the host cell cytosol, where its actin cross-linking domain (ACD) cross-links G-actin, leading to F-actin depolymerization, cytoskeleton rearrangements, and cell rounding. These effects on the cytoskeleton prevent phagocytosis and bacterial engulfment by macrophages, thus preventing V. cholerae clearance from the gut. The V. cholerae Type VI secretion-associated VgrG1 protein also contains a C-terminal ACD, which shares 61% identity with MARTX ACD and has been shown to covalently cross-link G-actin. Here, we purified the VgrG1 C-terminal domain and determined its crystal structure. The VgrG1 ACD exhibits a V-shaped three-dimensional structure, formed of 12 β-strands and nine α-helices. Its active site comprises five residues that are conserved in MARTX ACD toxin, within a conserved area of ∼10 Å radius. We showed that less than 100 ACD molecules are sufficient to depolymerize the actin filaments of a fibroblast cell in vivo. Mutagenesis studies confirmed that Glu-16 is critical for the F-actin depolymerization function. Co-crystals with divalent cations and ATP reveal the molecular mechanism of the MARTX/VgrG toxins and offer perspectives for their possible inhibition.