Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Use of the Endoscopic Healing Index for Monitoring of Disease Activity in Patients With Crohn's Disease in the COVID Era

Management of Crohn’s disease (CD) during COVID-19 is challenging when colonoscopy is not feasible. This study describes a blood-based test that has been validated against colonoscopy in patients with CD as an alternative even in patients with high inflammation from infections.

Customers' contamination concerns: an integrative framework and future prospects for service management

Purpose

Customers might become concerned about getting contaminated and adapt their behavior accordingly, which is of critical concern for service managers. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, this paper synthesizes the extant body of research within psychology and marketing into an integrative framework that helps understand the current state of knowledge on contamination. Second, this review summarizes evidence-based managerial recommendations on how to deal with customers' contamination concerns. Third, this paper provides guidance for future research by proposing several ways in which those concerns might influence service management.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper conducts an integrative literature review of over 30 years of psychology and marketing research on contamination concerns.

Findings

The paper reviews physical and metaphysical contagion models, the situational cues that may activate customers' contamination concerns, the psychological mechanisms that underlie the relationship between contamination and customer outcomes and the individual characteristics that influence customer sensitivity to contamination cues. Moreover, this review identifies actions that service managers can take to prevent customers' contamination concerns. Finally, still much has to be learned about how organizations should deal with fear of contamination by the time a next pandemic breaks out.

Originality/value

This paper develops an integrative framework that serves as a structured knowledge map onto the contamination phenomenon and paves the way for future service research.

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of -15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.

Erratum: Publisher Correction: Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.].

Elective, Non-urgent Procedures and Aesthetic Surgery in the Wake of SARS-COVID-19: Considerations Regarding Safety, Feasibility and Impact on Clinical Management

BACKGROUND

The worldwide spread of a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has led to a near total stop of non-urgent, elective surgeries across all specialties in most affected countries. In the field of aesthetic surgery, the self-imposed moratorium for all aesthetic surgery procedures recommended by most international scientific societies has been adopted by many surgeons worldwide and resulted in a huge socioeconomic impact for most private practices and clinics. An important question still unanswered in most countries is when and how should elective/aesthetic procedures be scheduled again and what kind of organizational changes are necessary to protect patients and healthcare workers when clinics and practices reopen. Defining manageable, evidence-based protocols for testing, surgical/procedural risk mitigation and clinical flow management/contamination management will be paramount for the safety of non-urgent surgical procedures.

METHODS

We conducted a MEDLINE/PubMed research for all available publications on COVID-19 and surgery and COVID-19 and anesthesia. Articles and referenced literature describing possible procedural impact factors leading to exacerbation of the clinical evolution of COVID-19-positive patients were identified to perform risk stratification for elective surgery. Based on these impact factors, considerations for patient selection, choice of procedural complexity, duration of procedure, type of anesthesia, etc., are discussed in this article and translated into algorithms for surgical/anesthesia risk management and clinical management. Current recommendations and published protocols on contamination control, avoidance of cross-contamination and procedural patient flow are reviewed. A COVID-19 testing guideline protocol for patients planning to undergo elective aesthetic surgery is presented and recommendations are made regarding adaptation of current patient information/informed consent forms and patient health questionnaires.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 crisis has led to unprecedented challenges in the acute management of the crisis, and the wave only recently seems to flatten out in some countries. The adaptation of surgical and procedural steps for a risk-minimizing management of potential COVID-19-positive patients seeking to undergo elective aesthetic procedures in the wake of that wave will present the next big challenge for the aesthetic surgery community. We propose a clinical algorithm to enhance patient safety in elective surgery in the context of COVID-19 and to minimize cross-contamination between healthcare workers and patients. New evidence-based guidelines regarding surgical risk stratification, testing, and clinical flow management/contamination management are proposed. We believe that only the continuous development and broad implementation of guidelines like the ones proposed in this paper will allow an early reintegration of all aesthetic procedures into the scope of surgical care currently performed and to prepare the elective surgical specialties better for a possible second wave of the pandemic.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE V

This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

COVID-19 in pastoral contexts in the greater Horn of Africa: Implications and recommendations

COVID-19 is a global pandemic that continues to spread around the world, including to Africa where cases are steadily increasing. The African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is leading the pandemic response in Africa, with direction from the World Health Organization guidelines for critical preparedness, readiness, and response actions. These are written for national governments, lacking nuance for population and local differences. In the greater Horn of Africa, conditions unique to pastoralists such as inherent mobility and limited health and service infrastructure will influence the dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, we present a One Health approach to the pandemic, consisting of interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaboration focused on the determinants of health and health outcomes amongst pastoralists. Our contextualized public health strategy includes community One Health teams and suggestions for where to implement targeted public health measures. We also analyse the interaction of COVID-19 impacts, including those caused directly by the disease and those that result from control efforts, with ongoing shocks and vulnerabilities in the region (e.g. desert locusts, livestock disease outbreaks, floods, conflict, and development displacement). We give recommendations on how to prepare for and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and its secondary impacts on pastoral areas. Given that the full impact of COVID-19 on pastoral areas is unknown currently, our health recommendations focus on disease prevention and understanding disease epidemiology. We emphasize targeting pastoral toponymies with public health measures to secure market access and mobility while combating the direct health impacts of COVID-19. A contextualized approach for the COVID-19 public health response in pastoral areas in the Greater Horn of Africa, including how the pandemic will interact with existing shocks and vulnerabilities, is required for an effective response, while protecting pastoral livelihoods and food, income, and nutrition security.

Computational analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses based on the Kolmogorov's complexity and Shannon's information theories

This paper tackles the information of 133 RNA viruses available in public databases under the light of several mathematical and computational tools. First, the formal concepts of distance metrics, Kolmogorov complexity and Shannon information are recalled. Second, the computational tools available presently for tackling and visualizing patterns embedded in datasets, such as the hierarchical clustering and the multidimensional scaling, are discussed. The synergies of the common application of the mathematical and computational resources are then used for exploring the RNA data, cross-evaluating the normalized compression distance, entropy and Jensen-Shannon divergence, versus representations in two and three dimensions. The results of these different perspectives give extra light in what concerns the relations between the distinct RNA viruses.

Psychosocial Effects of Corona Measures on Patients With Dementia, Mild Cognitive Impairment and Subjective Cognitive Decline

Background: The recent COVID-19 pandemic is not only a major healthcare problem in itself, but also poses enormous social challenges. Though nursing homes increasingly receive attention, the majority of people with cognitive decline and dementia live at home. We aimed to explore the psychosocial effects of corona measures in memory clinic (pre-)dementia patients and their caregivers. Methods: Between April 28th and July 13th 2020, n = 389 patients of Alzheimer center Amsterdam [n = 121 symptomatic (age = 69 ± 6, 33%F, MMSE = 23 ± 5), n = 268 cognitively normal (age = 66 ± 8, 40% F, MMSE = 29 ± 1)] completed a survey on psychosocial effects of the corona measures. Questions related to social isolation, worries for faster cognitive decline, behavioral problems and discontinuation of care. In addition, n = 147 caregivers of symptomatic patients completed a similar survey with additional questions on caregiver burden. Results: Social isolation was experienced by n = 42 (35%) symptomatic and n = 67 (25%) cognitively normal patients and two third of patients [n = 129 (66%); n = 58 (75%) symptomatic, n = 71 (61%) cognitively normal] reported that care was discontinued. Worries for faster cognitive decline were existed in symptomatic patients [n = 44 (44%)] and caregivers [n = 73 (53%)], but were also reported by a subgroup of cognitively normal patients [n = 27 (14%)]. Both patients [n = 56 (46%) symptomatic, n = 102 (38%) cognitively normal] and caregivers [n = 72 (48%)] reported an increase in psychological symptoms. More than three quarter of caregivers [n = 111(76%)] reported an increase in patients' behavioral problems. A higher caregiver burden was experienced by n = 69 (56%) of caregivers and n = 43 (29%) of them reported that a need for more support. Discontinuation of care (OR = 3.3 [1.3-7.9]), psychological (OR = 4.0 [1.6-9.9]) and behavioral problems (OR = 3.0 [1.0-9.0]) strongly related to experiencing a higher caregiver burden. Lastly, social isolation (OR = 3.2 [1.2-8.1]) and psychological symptoms (OR = 8.1 [2.8-23.7]) were red flags for worries for faster cognitive decline. Conclusion: Not only symptomatic patients, but also cognitively normal patients express worries for faster cognitive decline and psychological symptoms. Moreover, we identified patients who are at risk of adverse outcomes of the corona measures, i.e., discontinued care, social isolation, psychological and behavioral problems. This underlines the need for health care professionals to provide ways to warrant the continuation of care and support (informal) networks surrounding patients and caregivers to mitigate the higher risk of negative psychosocial effects.

Capacitação nacional emergencial em Saúde Mental e Atenção Psicossocial na Covid-19: um relato de experiência

RESUMO Em março/2020, a Organização Mundial da Saúde emitiu a declaração de pandemia, em decorrência da disseminação do vírus SARS-CoV-2, disparando o alerta mundial sobre a necessidade de rápida expansão da capacidade de vigilância, prevenção e implementação das estruturas de assistência dos sistemas de saúde dos países. No dia seguinte à declaração do Ministério da Saúde que reconheceu a transmissão comunitária no Brasil, um grupo de pesquisadores foi convidado a reunir evidências científicas e melhores práticas de Saúde Mental e Atenção Psicossocial (SMAPS) na Covid-19. Foram selecionados 1.563 artigos que se referiam à saúde mental e/ou atenção psicossocial em contextos de emergências sanitárias. Participaram pesquisadores, docentes e voluntários de 25 instituições reconhecidas pelo notório saber, totalizando um montante de 117 profissionais voluntários. Optou-se por conformar um curso nacional na modalidade de Educação a Distância. Ao todo, 60.780 profissionais ingressaram no curso nos primeiros 30 dias de inscrição. A modelagem on-line, síncrona e assíncrona, possibilitou a formação durante o período de distanciamento social, assim como permitiu que profissionais de todos os estados, e do Distrito Federal, pudessem ter acesso a informações atualizadas e baseadas em pesquisas nacionais e internacionais, buscando garantir o fortalecimento das ações no âmbito das políticas de saúde, e com base nos protocolos internacionais.

Driving Access to Care: Use of Mobile Units for Urine Specimen Collection During the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) Pandemic

Patients with substance use disorders (SUD) are at increased risk of both coronavirus disease-19 complications as well as exacerbations of their current conditions due to social distancing and isolation. Innovations that provide increased access to support substance use disorder patients may mitigate long-term sequelae associated with continued or renewed drug use. To improve patient access during the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic, we deployed a mobile unit to enable access to urine drug testing where needed for patients suffering from substance use disorder. Over a 3-week pilot program, 54 patients received urine drug testing across 5 providers and 8 zip codes. The mobile unit was cost-effective, demonstrating a volume-dependent 19% lower cost compared to pre-coronavirus disease-19 patient service centers in a similar geographic region. The mobile unit was well-received by patients and providers with an average of 9 out of 10 satisfaction scores and allowed for access to urine drug testing for 67% patients who would not have received testing during this time frame. No statistically significant differences were found in substance use positivity rates in comparison to pre-coronavirus disease findings; however, some shifts in use included higher rates of fentanyl and opioid positivity and reductions in tetrahydrocannabinol and cocaine use in the mobile collections setting. Deployment of mobile collection services during the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic has shown to be an effective mechanism for supporting patients suffering from substance use disorder, allowing for access to care of this often stigmatized, vulnerable population.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review

The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters, explore and project the trends of the COVID-19, and assess the effects of intervention or control measures. We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies: epidemiological parameters estimation, trend prediction, and control measure evaluation. Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals, the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects. The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics.

Innovations in Health Care Management: the Effect of the Pandemic on the Labour Market Change

The COVID-19 pandemic was identified in 17 days, and the related enormous economic and social impacts have mobilized the global scientific world in almost all areas of science. The leaders of individual countries have to face a challenge that has been unprecedented for many decades. The global pandemic could lead to profound changes in the balance of power, economic operations, and the labor market. In turn, the accompanying measures have brought a lot of changes to everyday life. Although the government of Romania had taken some measures to avoid the collapse of the economy. However, the experts did not regard these as efficient enough. At this time two-thirds of the Hungarian population do not feel that the media exaggerates the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic consequences of the pandemic are undisputable for the Hungarian people, just like for the Italian and French people who were severely affected by the virus. People have been deprived of the joy of social gatherings, free movement, travel and many of them have even lost their jobs. The primary question at the moment is whether countries could finance the sectors in hardship and whether their inter-dependence regarding the exchange of goods imposes any kind of danger to their citizens. In terms of macro-economy, however, the long-term consequences are much more interesting, and it raises questions like how the countries will be able to handle the situation resulted by the increased unemployment and the different trade relations. This study presents a primary research with the age group of 18-30. The target group is leaders of student unions and academics of four universities. This questionnaire survey aims to examine how the Hungarian and Transylvanian respondents see the prospective economic effects of the current situation on the different sectors of the economy. In addition to the descriptive statistical analysis, the perception of economic impacts was examined with variance analysis concerning different demographic characteristics, and the currently studied subject area. Is the negative attitude prevailing or do the different groups react differently to the state of affairs? The greatest differences in the opinion of respondents could be observed in the area of lifestyle and healthcare. The experts think that the pandemic will result in great changes in the offices, homes, schools, and places of work. Negative aftereffects are not predicted in higher education, sales, and trade. It can be concluded that negative labor market trends are expected, therefore probably the young generation currently studying in higher education will be one of the biggest losers of the virus in the long run. Keywords: COVID 19, pandemic, economic impact, changes in subject areas.

Beyond just "flattening the curve": Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions

When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First, the minimization of disease-related deaths, and, second, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover, the socio-economic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple "flattening of the curve". Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals, however, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system, where socio-economic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of -15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.

Coronaviruses and Australian bats: a review in the midst of a pandemic

Australia’s 81 bat species play vital ecological and economic roles via suppression of insect pests and maintenance of native forests through pollination and seed dispersal. Bats also host a wide diversity of coronaviruses globally, including several viral species that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2 and other emergent human respiratory coronaviruses. Although there are hundreds of studies of bat coronaviruses globally, there are only three studies of bat coronaviruses in Australian bat species, and no systematic studies of drivers of shedding. These limited studies have identified two betacoronaviruses and seven alphacoronaviruses, but less than half of Australian species are included in these studies and further research is therefore needed. There is no current evidence of spillover of coronaviruses from bats to humans in Australia, either directly or indirectly via intermediate hosts. The limited available data are inadequate to determine whether this lack of evidence indicates that spillover does not occur or occurs but is undetected. Conversely, multiple international agencies have flagged the potential transmission of human coronaviruses (including SARS CoV-2) from humans to bats, and the consequent threat to bat conservation and human health. Australia has a long history of bat research across a broad range of ecological and associated disciplines, as well as expertise in viral spillover from bats. This strong foundation is an ideal platform for developing integrative approaches to understanding bat health and sustainable protection of human health.

A program for annotating and predicting the effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms, SnpEff: SNPs in the genome of Drosophila melanogaster strain w1118; iso-2; iso-3

We describe a new computer program, SnpEff, for rapidly categorizing the effects of variants in genome sequences. Once a genome is sequenced, SnpEff annotates variants based on their genomic locations and predicts coding effects. Annotated genomic locations include intronic, untranslated region, upstream, downstream, splice site, or intergenic regions. Coding effects such as synonymous or non-synonymous amino acid replacement, start codon gains or losses, stop codon gains or losses, or frame shifts can be predicted. Here the use of SnpEff is illustrated by annotating ~356,660 candidate SNPs in ~117 Mb unique sequences, representing a substitution rate of ~1/305 nucleotides, between the Drosophila melanogaster w(1118); iso-2; iso-3 strain and the reference y(1); cn(1) bw(1) sp(1) strain. We show that ~15,842 SNPs are synonymous and ~4,467 SNPs are non-synonymous (N/S ~0.28). The remaining SNPs are in other categories, such as stop codon gains (38 SNPs), stop codon losses (8 SNPs), and start codon gains (297 SNPs) in the 5'UTR. We found, as expected, that the SNP frequency is proportional to the recombination frequency (i.e., highest in the middle of chromosome arms). We also found that start-gain or stop-lost SNPs in Drosophila melanogaster often result in additions of N-terminal or C-terminal amino acids that are conserved in other Drosophila species. It appears that the 5' and 3' UTRs are reservoirs for genetic variations that changes the termini of proteins during evolution of the Drosophila genus. As genome sequencing is becoming inexpensive and routine, SnpEff enables rapid analyses of whole-genome sequencing data to be performed by an individual laboratory.