Nodule management protocol of the NELSON randomised lung cancer screening trial

Decision making in patients with pulmonary nodules

Integrating current evidence with fundamental concepts from decision analysis suggests that management of patients with pulmonary nodules should begin with estimating the pretest probability of cancer from the patient's clinical risk factors and computed tomography characteristics. Then, the consequences of treatment should be considered, by comparing the benefits of surgery if the patient has lung cancer with the potential harm if the patient does not have cancer. This analysis determines the "treatment threshold," which is the point around which the decision centers. This varies widely among patients depending on their cardiopulmonary reserve, comorbidities, and individual preferences. For patients with a very low probability of cancer, careful observation with serial computed tomography is warranted. For those with a high probability of cancer, surgical diagnosis is warranted. For patients in the intermediate range of probabilities, either computed tomography-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy or positron emission tomography, possibly followed by computed tomography-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy, is best. Patient preferences should be considered because the absolute difference in outcome between strategies may be small. The optimal approach to the management of patients with pulmonary nodules is evolving as technologies develop. Areas of uncertainty include quantifying the hazard of delayed diagnosis; determining the optimal duration of follow-up for ground-glass and semisolid opacities; establishing the roles of volumetric imaging, advanced bronchoscopic technologies, and limited surgical resections; and calculating the cost-effectiveness of different strategies.

NELSON lung cancer screening study

The Dutch-Belgian Randomized Lung Cancer Screening Trial (Dutch acronym: NELSON study) was designed to investigate whether screening for lung cancer by low-dose multidetector computed tomography (CT) in high-risk subjects will lead to a decrease in 10-year lung cancer mortality of at least 25% compared with a control group without screening. Since the start of the NELSON study in 2003, 7557 participants underwent CT screening, with scan rounds in years 1, 2, 4 and 6. In the current review, the design of the NELSON study including participant selection and the lung nodule management protocol, as well as results on validation of CT screening and first results on lung cancer screening are described.

Screen-detected lung cancer: a retrospective analysis of CT appearance

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate characteristics of lung cancers diagnosed in a low-dose computed tomographic lung cancer screening study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

As part of the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program, a cohort of 4782 at-risk participants were screened. A total of 86 cancers in 84 individuals were detected and evaluated for location, morphology (density, border), size, histology, stage at diagnosis, treatment, and survival. Follow-up imaging for computation of growth rates was available in 41 cases.

RESULTS

Eighty-six cancers were detected in 84 individuals (60 women, 24 men). Of these, seven (8%) were incidence cancers. Most cancers were radiologically described as solid (n = 52 [61%]). The median tumor size was 18 × 13 mm (range, 6-56 mm). Histopathologic diagnoses revealed 10 (11.6%) bronchoalveolar carcinomas, 55 (64%) adenocarcinomas, 11 (12.8%) squamous-cell carcinomas, two (2.3%) large-cell carcinomas, three (3.5%) carcinoids, and five (5.8%) small-cell lung cancers. Of the 41 cases with follow-up computed tomographic scans, 36 nodules had increased in size. The mean doubling time for all cancers was 259 days (median, 154 days). In women (n = 25), the mean doubling time was 313 days (median, 156 days), while in men (n = 11), the mean doubling time was 137 days (median, 92 days). Overall, 55 lung cancers (68%) were stage I. Most cancers (n = 62 [73%]) were surgically resected.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, screening detected lung cancer in early treatable stages, and women had more slow-growing adenocarcinomas than men. Most screen-detected lung cancers were surgically resectable.

European and North American lung cancer screening experience and implications for pulmonary nodule management

The potential for low dose computed tomography (LDCT) to act as an effective tool in screening for lung cancer is currently the subject of several randomised control trials. It has recently been given prominence by interim results released by the North American National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). Several other trials assessing LDCT as a screening tool are currently underway in Europe, and are due to report their final results in the next few years. These include the NELSON, DLSCT, DANTE, ITALUNG, MILD and LUSI trials. Although slow to instigate a trial of its own, the UK Lung Screen (UKLS) trial will shortly commence. The knowledge gained from the newer trials has mostly reinforced and refined previous concepts that have formed the basis of existing nodule management guidelines. This article takes the opportunity to summarise the main aspects and initial results of the trials presently underway, assess the status of current collaborative efforts and the scope for future collaboration, and analyse observations from these studies that may usefully inform the management of the indeterminate pulmonary nodule. Key Points • Low dose CT screening for lung cancer is promising. • The effect of LDCT screening on mortality is still uncertain. • Several European randomised controlled trials for LDCT are underway. • The trials vary in methodology but most compare LDCT to no screening. • Preliminary results have reinforced existing nodule management concepts.

Screening and early detection of lung cancer

Lung cancer with an estimated 342,000 deaths in 2008 (20% of total) is the most common cause of death from cancer, followed by colorectal cancer (12%), breast cancer (8%), and stomach cancer (7%) in Europe. In former smokers, the absolute lung cancer risk remains higher than in never-smokers; these data therefore call for effective secondary preventive measures for lung cancer in addition to smoking cessation programs. This review presents and discusses the most recent advances in the early detection and screening of lung cancer.An overview of randomized controlled computerized tomography-screening trials is given, and the role of bronchoscopy and new techniques is discussed. Finally, the approach of (noninvasive) biomarker testing in the blood, exhaled breath, sputum, and bronchoscopic specimen is reviewed.

UK Lung Screen (UKLS) nodule management protocol: modelling of a single screen randomised controlled trial of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer

The UK Lung Screen (UKLS) is a randomised controlled trial of the use of low-dose multidetector CT for lung cancer screening. It completed the Health Technology Appraisal (HTA)-funded feasibility stage in October 2009 and the pilot UKLS will be initiated in early 2011. The pilot will randomise 4000 subjects to either low-dose CT screening or no screening. The full study, due to start in September 2012, if progression criteria are met, will randomise a further 28 000 subjects from seven centres in the UK. Subjects will be selected if they have sufficient risk of developing lung cancer according to the Liverpool Lung Project risk model. The UKLS employs the ‘Wald Single Screen Design’, which was modelled in the UKLS feasibility study. This paper describes the modelling of nodule management in UKLS by using volumetric analysis with a single initial screen design and follow-up period of 10 years. This modelling has resulted in the development and adoption of the UKLS care pathway, which will be implemented in the planned CT screening trial in the UK.

The Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) and Image Database Resource Initiative (IDRI): a completed reference database of lung nodules on CT scans

PURPOSE

The development of computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) methods for lung nodule detection, classification, and quantitative assessment can be facilitated through a well-characterized repository of computed tomography (CT) scans. The Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) and Image Database Resource Initiative (IDRI) completed such a database, establishing a publicly available reference for the medical imaging research community. Initiated by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), further advanced by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH), and accompanied by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) through active participation, this public-private partnership demonstrates the success of a consortium founded on a consensus-based process.

METHODS

Seven academic centers and eight medical imaging companies collaborated to identify, address, and resolve challenging organizational, technical, and clinical issues to provide a solid foundation for a robust database. The LIDC/IDRI Database contains 1018 cases, each of which includes images from a clinical thoracic CT scan and an associated XML file that records the results of a two-phase image annotation process performed by four experienced thoracic radiologists. In the initial blinded-read phase, each radiologist independently reviewed each CT scan and marked lesions belonging to one of three categories ("nodule > or =3 mm," "nodule <3 mm," and "non-nodule > or =3 mm"). In the subsequent unblinded-read phase, each radiologist independently reviewed their own marks along with the anonymized marks of the three other radiologists to render a final opinion. The goal of this process was to identify as completely as possible all lung nodules in each CT scan without requiring forced consensus.

RESULTS

The Database contains 7371 lesions marked "nodule" by at least one radiologist. 2669 of these lesions were marked "nodule > or =3 mm" by at least one radiologist, of which 928 (34.7%) received such marks from all four radiologists. These 2669 lesions include nodule outlines and subjective nodule characteristic ratings.

CONCLUSIONS

The LIDC/IDRI Database is expected to provide an essential medical imaging research resource to spur CAD development, validation, and dissemination in clinical practice.

Simulation of nodules and diffuse infiltrates in chest radiographs using CT templates

A method is proposed to simulate nodules and diffuse infiltrates in chest radiographs. This allows creation of large annotated databases for training of both radiologists and computer aided diagnosis systems. Realistic nodules and diffuse infiltrates were generated from three-dimensional templates segmented from CT data. These templates are rescaled, rotated, projected and superimposed on a radiograph. This method was compared, in an observer study, to a previously published method that simulates pulmonary nodules as perfectly spherical objects. Results show that it is hard for human observers to distinguish real and simulated nodules when using templates (AUC-values do not significantly differ from .5, p > .05 for all observers). The method that produced spherical nodules performed slightly worse (AUC of one observer differs significantly from .5, p = .011). Simulation of diffuse infiltrates is challenging but also feasible (AUC = 0.67 for one observer).

Automatic segmentation of the pulmonary lobes from fissures, airways, and lung borders: evaluation of robustness against missing data

Automatic segmentation of structures with missing or invisible borders is a challenging task. Since structures in the lungs are related, humans use contextual and shape information to infer the position of invisible borders. An example of a task in which the borders are often incomplete or invisible is the segmentation of the pulmonary lobes. In this paper, a fully automatic segmentation of the pulmonary lobes in chest CT scans is presented. The method is especially designed to be robust to incomplete fissures by incorporating contextual information from automatic lung, fissure, and bronchial tree segmentations, as well as shape information. Since the method relies on the result of automatic segmentations, it is important that the method is robust against failure of one or more of these segmentation methods. In an extensive experiment on 10 chest CT scans with manual segmentations, the robustness of the method to incomplete fissures and missing input segmentations is shown. In a second experiment on 100 chest CT scans with incomplete fissures, the method is shown to perform well.

Comparing and combining algorithms for computer-aided detection of pulmonary nodules in computed tomography scans: The ANODE09 study

Numerous publications and commercial systems are available that deal with automatic detection of pulmonary nodules in thoracic computed tomography scans, but a comparative study where many systems are applied to the same data set has not yet been performed. This paper introduces ANODE09 ( http://anode09.isi.uu.nl), a database of 55 scans from a lung cancer screening program and a web-based framework for objective evaluation of nodule detection algorithms. Any team can upload results to facilitate benchmarking. The performance of six algorithms for which results are available are compared; five from academic groups and one commercially available system. A method to combine the output of multiple systems is proposed. Results show a substantial performance difference between algorithms, and demonstrate that combining the output of algorithms leads to marked performance improvements.

Automatic segmentation of pulmonary lobes robust against incomplete fissures

A method for automatic segmentation of pulmonary lobes from computed tomography (CT) scans is presented that is robust against incomplete fissures. The method is based on a multiatlas approach in which existing lobar segmentations are deformed to test scans in which the fissures, the lungs, and the bronchial tree have been automatically segmented. The key element of our method is a cost function that exploits information from fissures, lung borders, and bronchial tree in an effective way, such that less reliable information (lungs, airways) is only used when the most reliable information (fissures) is missing. To cope with the anatomical variation in lobe shape, an atlas selection mechanism is introduced. The method is evaluated on two test sets of 120 scans in total. The results show that the lobe segmentation closely follows the fissures when they are present. In a simulated experiment in which parts of complete fissures are removed, the robustness of the method against different levels of incomplete fissures is shown. When the fissures are incomplete, an observer study shows agreement of the automatically determined lobe borders with a radiologist for 81% of the lobe borders on average.

Coronary artery calcification scoring in low-dose ungated CT screening for lung cancer: interscan agreement

OBJECTIVE

In previous studies detection of coronary artery calcification (CAC) with low-dose ungated MDCT performed for lung cancer screening has been compared with detection with cardiac CT. We evaluated the interscan agreement of CAC scores from two consecutive low-dose ungated MDCT examinations.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The subjects were 584 participants in the screening segment of a lung cancer screening trial who underwent two low-dose ungated MDCT examinations within 4 months (mean, 3.1 +/- 0.6 months) of a baseline CT examination. Agatston score, volume score, and calcium mass score were measured by two observers. Interscan agreement of stratification of participants into four Agatston score risk categories (0, 1-100, 101-400, > 400) was assessed with kappa values. Interscan variability and 95% repeatability limits were calculated for all three calcium measures and compared by repeated measures analysis of variance.

RESULTS

An Agatston score > 0 was detected in 443 baseline CT examinations (75.8%). Interscan agreement of the four risk categories was good (kappa = 0.67). The Agatston scores were in the same risk category in both examinations in 440 cases (75.3%); 578 participants (99.0%) had scores differing a maximum of one category. Furthermore, mean interscan variability ranged from 61% for calcium volume score to 71% for Agatston score (p < 0.01). A limitation of this study was that no comparison of CAC scores between low-dose ungated CT and the reference standard ECG-gated CT was performed.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular disease risk stratification with low-dose ungated MDCT is feasible and has good interscan agreement of stratification of participants into Agatston score risk categories. High mean interscan variability precludes the use of this technique for monitoring CAC scores for individual patients.

Lung nodule volumetry: segmentation algorithms within the same software package cannot be used interchangeably

Objective

We examined the reproducibility of lung nodule volumetry software that offers three different volumetry algorithms.

Methods

In a lung cancer screening trial, 188 baseline nodules >5 mm were identified. Including follow-ups, these nodules formed a study-set of 545 nodules. Nodules were independently double read by two readers using commercially available volumetry software. The software offers readers three different analysing algorithms. We compared the inter-observer variability of nodule volumetry when the readers used the same and different algorithms.

Results

Both readers were able to correctly segment and measure 72% of nodules. In 80% of these cases, the readers chose the same algorithm. When readers used the same algorithm, exactly the same volume was measured in 50% of readings and a difference of >25% was observed in 4%. When the readers used different algorithms, 83% of measurements showed a difference of >25%.

Conclusion

Modern volumetric software failed to correctly segment a high number of screen detected nodules. While choosing a different algorithm can yield better segmentation of a lung nodule, reproducibility of volumetric measurements deteriorates substantially when different algorithms were used. It is crucial even in the same software package to choose identical parameters for follow-up.

Management of lung nodules detected by volume CT scanning

BACKGROUND

The use of multidetector computed tomography (CT) in lung-cancer screening trials involving subjects with an increased risk of lung cancer has highlighted the problem for the clinician of deciding on the best course of action when noncalcified pulmonary nodules are detected by CT.

METHODS

A total of 7557 participants underwent CT screening in years 1, 2, and 4 of a randomized trial of lung-cancer screening. We used software to evaluate a noncalcified nodule according to its volume or volume-doubling time. Growth was defined as an increase in volume of at least 25% between two scans. The first-round screening test was considered to be negative if the volume of a nodule was less than 50 mm(3), if it was 50 to 500 mm(3) but had not grown by the time of the 3-month follow-up CT, or if, in the case of those that had grown, the volume-doubling time was 400 days or more.

RESULTS

In the first and second rounds of screening, 2.6% and 1.8% of the participants, respectively, had a positive test result. In round one, the sensitivity of the screen was 94.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86.5 to 98.0) and the negative predictive value 99.9% (95% CI, 99.9 to 100.0). In the 7361 subjects with a negative screening result in round one, 20 lung cancers were detected after 2 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Among subjects at high risk for lung cancer who were screened in three rounds of CT scanning and in whom noncalcified pulmonary nodules were evaluated according to volume and volume-doubling time, the chances of finding lung cancer 1 and 2 years after a negative first-round test were 1 in 1000 and 3 in 1000, respectively. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN63545820.)

Short-term health-related quality of life consequences in a lung cancer CT screening trial (NELSON)

Background:

In lung cancer CT screening, participants often have an indeterminate screening result at baseline requiring a follow-up CT. In subjects with either an indeterminate or a negative result after screening, we investigated whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) changed over time and differed between groups in the short term.

Methods:

A total of 733 participants in the NELSON trial received four questionnaires: T0, before randomisation; T1, 1 week before the baseline screening; T2, 1 day after the screening; and T3, 2 months after the screening results but before the 3-month follow-up CT. HRQoL was measured as generic HRQoL (the 12-item Short Form, SF-12; the EuroQol questionnaire, EQ-5D), anxiety (the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, STAI-6), and lung-cancer-specific distress (the Impact of Event Scale, IES). For analyses, repeated-measures analysis of variance was used, adjusted for covariates.

Results:

Response to each questionnaire was 88% or higher. Scores on SF-12, EQ-5D, and STAI-6 showed no clinically relevant changes over time. At T3, IES scores that were clinically relevant increased after an indeterminate result, whereas these scores showed a significant decrease after a negative result. At T3, differences in IES scores between the two baseline result groups were both significant and clinically relevant (P<0.01).

Conclusion:

This longitudinal study among participants of a lung cancer screening programme showed that in the short term recipients of an indeterminate result experienced increased lung-cancer-specific distress, whereas the HRQoL changes after a negative baseline screening result may be interpreted as a relief.

Volumetric measurement of pulmonary nodules at low-dose chest CT: effect of reconstruction setting on measurement variability

OBJECTIVE

To assess volumetric measurement variability in pulmonary nodules detected at low-dose chest CT with three reconstruction settings.

METHODS

The volume of 200 solid pulmonary nodules was measured three times using commercially available semi-automated software of low-dose chest CT data-sets reconstructed with 1 mm section thickness and a soft kernel (A), 2 mm and a soft kernel (B), and 2 mm and a sharp kernel (C), respectively. Repeatability coefficients of the three measurements within each setting were calculated by the Bland and Altman method. A three-level model was applied to test the impact of reconstruction setting on the measured volume.

RESULTS

The repeatability coefficients were 8.9, 22.5 and 37.5% for settings A, B and C. Three-level analysis showed that settings A and C yielded a 1.29 times higher estimate of nodule volume compared with setting B (P = 0.03). The significant interaction among setting, nodule location and morphology demonstrated that the effect of the reconstruction setting was different for different types of nodules. Low-dose CT reconstructed with 1 mm section thickness and a soft kernel provided the most repeatable volume measurement.

CONCLUSION

A wide, nodule-type-dependent range of agreement between volume measurements with different reconstruction settings suggests strict consistency is required for serial CT studies.

Lung cancer screening and its efficacy

The efficacy of lung cancer screening should not be evaluated by the survival rate of lung cancer patients but by lung cancer mortality in a certain population because the survival rate can be greatly affected by several types of bias. Randomized controlled trials that were conducted during the 1970s and 1980s in Europe and the United States failed to prove the efficacy of lung cancer screening in decreasing the mortality rate; but recently the results of case-control studies in Japan have revealed that undergoing currently available screening decreases the risk of lung cancer deaths by 30%-60%. A system is now being created in Japan whereby the guidelines regarding cancer screening will continue to be updated. The preliminary reports concerning lung cancer screening using thoracic computed tomography revealed that not only the detection rate of lung cancer but also the survival rate of detected lung cancer patients were surprisingly high. However, the presence of some potential bias in these studies cannot be ignored; therefore, it is still unknown whether there is actual efficacy. Several randomized controlled trials are presently in progress overseas, but the interim results were not favorable. A randomized controlled trial should therefore immediately be started in Japan as well.

Lung cancer screening update

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Lung cancer is a health problem of global proportions. Despite intensive research over many years, the prognosis is still very poor. For the surgery to be effective, tumours need to be recognized early. Computed tomography (CT) is significantly more sensitive than chest radiograph for identifying small, asymptomatic lung cancers. Although low-dose CT screening observational trials have demonstrated that survival for all tumour types and sizes detected were extremely high, there is no clear evidence that low-dose CT screening reduces deaths from lung cancer. Only the results of ongoing randomized controlled trials can reveal a real benefit of screening in terms of mortality reduction.

RECENT FINDINGS

We summarize the protocols and the preliminary results of the lung cancer screening randomized controlled trial and the problems linked to the detection of suspected early cancer.

SUMMARY

Today, we cannot already prove the ultimate mortality benefit of lung cancer screening with low-dose CT nor we can confirm that this approach is not harmful. We are waiting the final analysis of randomized controlled trials for lung cancer mortality. Even if is widely accepted that pooling data of randomized controlled trials could be of help to get powerful results in terms of mortality reduction in shorter follow-up time, this opportunity is still under evaluation.

The Danish randomized lung cancer CT screening trial--overall design and results of the prevalence round

INTRODUCTION

Lung cancer screening with low dose computed tomography (CT) has not yet been evaluated in randomized clinical trials, although several are underway.

METHODS

In The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial, 4104 smokers and previous smokers from 2004 to 2006 were randomized to either screening with annual low dose CT scans for 5 years or no screening. A history of cigarette smoking of at least 20 pack years was required. All participants have annual lung function tests, and questionnaires regarding health status, psychosocial consequences of screening, smoking habits, and smoking cessation. Baseline CT scans were performed in 2052 participants. Pulmonary nodules were classified according to size and morphology: (1) Nodules smaller than 5 mm and calcified (benign) nodules were tabulated, (2) Noncalcified nodules between 5 and 15 mm were rescanned after 3 months. If the nodule increased in size or was larger than 15 mm the participant was referred for diagnostic workup.

RESULTS

At baseline 179 persons showed noncalcified nodules larger than 5 mm, and most were rescanned after 3 months: The rate of false-positive diagnoses was 7.9%, and 17 individuals (0.8%) turned out to have lung cancer. Ten of these had stage I disease. Eleven of 17 lung cancers at baseline were treated surgically, eight of these by video assisted thoracic surgery resection.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening may facilitate minimal invasive treatment and can be performed with a relatively low rate of false-positive screen results compared with previous studies on lung cancer screening.

Automatic segmentation of pulmonary segments from volumetric chest CT scans

Automated extraction of pulmonary anatomy provides a foundation for computerized analysis of computed tomography (CT) scans of the chest. A completely automatic method is presented to segment the lungs, lobes and pulmonary segments from volumetric CT chest scans. The method starts with lung segmentation based on region growing and standard image processing techniques. Next, the pulmonary fissures are extracted by a supervised filter. Subsequently the lung lobes are obtained by voxel classification where the position of voxels in the lung and relative to the fissures are used as features. Finally, each lobe is subdivided in its pulmonary segments by applying another voxel classification that employs features based on the detected fissures and the relative position of voxels in the lobe. The method was evaluated on 100 low-dose CT scans obtained from a lung cancer screening trial and compared to estimates of both interobserver and intraobserver agreement. The method was able to segment the pulmonary segments with high accuracy (77%), comparable to both interobserver and intraobserver accuracy (74% and 80%, respectively).

Screening in the dark: ethical considerations of providing screening tests to individuals when evidence is insufficient to support screening populations

During the past decade, screening tests using computed tomography (CT) have disseminated into practice and been marketed to patients despite neither conclusive evidence nor professional agreement about their efficacy and cost-effectiveness at the population level. This phenomenon raises questions about physicians' professional roles and responsibilities within the setting of medical innovation, as well as the appropriate scope of patient autonomy and access to unproven screening technology. This article explores how physicians ought to respond when new screening examinations that lack conclusive evidence of overall population benefit emerge in the marketplace and are requested by individual patients. To this end, the article considers the nature of evidence and how it influences decision-making for screening at both the public policy and individual patient levels. We distinguish medical and ethical differences between screening recommended for a population and screening considered on an individual patient basis. Finally, we discuss specific cases to explore how evidence, patient risk factors and preferences, and physician judgment ought to balance when making individual patient screening decisions.

Smooth or attached solid indeterminate nodules detected at baseline CT screening in the NELSON study: cancer risk during 1 year of follow-up

PURPOSE

To retrospectively determine whether baseline nodule characteristics at 3-month and 1-year volume doubling time (VDT) are predictive for lung cancer in solid indeterminate noncalcified nodules (NCNs) detected at baseline computed tomographic (CT) screening.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study, conducted between April 2004 and May 2006, was institutional review board approved. Patient consent was waived for this retrospective evaluation. NCNs between 5 and 10 mm in diameter (n = 891) were evaluated at 3 months and 1 year to assess growth (VDT < 400 days). Baseline assessments were related to growth at 3 months and 1 year by using chi(2) and Mann-Whitney U tests. Baseline assessments and growth were related to the presence of malignancy by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

At 3 months and at 1 year, 8% and 1% of NCNs had grown, of which 15% and 50% were malignant, respectively. One-year growth was related to morphology (P < .01), margin (P < .0001), location (P < .001), and size (P < .01). All cancers were nonspherical and purely intraparenchymal, without attachment to vessels, the pleura, or fissures. In nonsmooth unattached nodules, a volume of 130 mm(3) or larger was the only predictor for malignancy (odds ratio, 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7, 23.0). After the addition of information on the 3-month VDT, large volume (odds ratio, 4.9; 95% CI: 1.2, 20.1) and 3-month VDT (odds ratio, 15.6; 95% CI: 4.5, 53.5) helped predict malignancy. At 1 year, only the 1-year growth remained (odds ratio, 213.3; 95% CI: 18.7, 2430.9) as predictor for malignancy.

CONCLUSION

In smooth or attached solid indeterminate NCNs, no malignancies were found at 1-year follow-up. In nonsmooth purely intraparenchymal NCNs, size is the main baseline predictor for malignancy. When follow-up data are available, growth is a strong predictor for malignancy, especially at 1-year follow-up.

High affective risk perception is associated with more lung cancer-specific distress in CT screening for lung cancer

Screening for cancer can cause distress. People who perceive their risk of cancer as high may be more vulnerable to distress. This study evaluated whether participants of a lung cancer Computed Tomography (CT) screening trial with a high affective risk perception of developing lung cancer had a higher level of lung cancer-specific distress during CT screening. Furthermore, we evaluated whether participants perceived their risk of developing lung cancer differently 6 months after screening compared with 1 day before screening. A total of 351 subsequent participants of the NELSON-trial (Dutch-Belgian randomized controlled trial for lung cancer screening in high-risk subjects), who were randomized to the screen arm, were asked to fill in questionnaires 1 day before and 6 months after screening. Lung cancer-specific distress (Impact of Event Scale (IES)), generic health-related quality of life (SF-12) and affective risk perception were assessed. One day before screening, the participants with a high affective risk perception (n=47/321, 14.6%) had significantly higher (i.e., worse) median IES scores than participants with a low affective risk perception (11.5 vs. 2.0, p<0.01). Although median IES scores were significantly lower 6 months after screening than 1 day before screening, participants with a high affective risk perception still showed significantly higher IES scores than participants with a low affective risk perception (6.5 vs. 1.0, p<0.01). Six months after screening, significantly less participants (10.5%) felt that their risk of developing lung cancer was high than 1 day before screening (14.5%) (p<0.01). Levels of distress were not severe, but were elevated compared to participants with a low affective risk perception, and therefore, attention for this group is recommended.

Role of baseline nodule density and changes in density and nodule features in the discrimination between benign and malignant solid indeterminate pulmonary nodules

PURPOSE

To retrospectively evaluate whether baseline nodule density or changes in density or nodule features could be used to discriminate between benign and malignant solid indeterminate nodules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Solid indeterminate nodules between 50 and 500 mm(3) (4.6-9.8mm) were assessed at 3 and 12 months after baseline lung cancer screening (NELSON study). Nodules were classified based on morphology (spherical or non-spherical), shape (round, polygonal or irregular) and margin (smooth, lobulated, spiculated or irregular). The mean CT density of the nodule was automatically generated in Hounsfield units (HU) by the Lungcare software.

RESULTS

From April 2004 to July 2006, 7310 participants underwent baseline screening. In 312 participants 372 solid purely intra-parenchymal nodules were found. Of them, 16 (4%) were malignant. Benign nodules were 82.8mm(3) (5.4mm) and malignant nodules 274.5mm(3) (8.1mm) (p=0.000). Baseline CT density for benign nodules was 42.7 HU and for malignant nodules -2.2 HU (p=ns). The median change in density for benign nodules was -0.1 HU and for malignant nodules 12.8 HU (p<0.05). Compared to benign nodules, malignant nodules were more often non-spherical, irregular, lobulated or spiculated at baseline, 3-month and 1-year follow-up (p<0.0001). In the majority of the benign and malignant nodules there was no change in morphology, shape and margin during 1 year of follow-up (p=ns).

CONCLUSION

Baseline nodule density and changes in nodule features cannot be used to discriminate between benign and malignant solid indeterminate pulmonary nodules, but an increase in density is suggestive for malignancy and requires a shorter follow-up or a biopsy.

How to deal with incidentally detected pulmonary nodules less than 10mm in size on CT in a healthy person

The high frequency of non-calcified pulmonary nodules (NCN) <10mm incidentally detected on a multi-detector CT (MDCT) of the chest raises the question of how clinicians and radiologists should deal with these nodules. Management algorithms for solitary pulmonary nodules >10mm do not carry across to sub-centimeter lesions. Purpose of this review is to provide a 10-step approach for routinely detected sub-centimeter NCN on a MDCT in healthy persons in order to be able to make an optimal discrimination between benign and malignant NCNs. Recommendations are primarily based on individual cancer risk, the presence or absence of calcifications and nodule size. In nodules >4-5mm nodule consistency, margin and shape should be taken into account. Next steps in the nodule evaluation are the assessment of localization, nodule number, presence or absence of growth and volume doubling time. Growth is defined as a volume doubling time of 400 days or less, based on volumetry. For nodules <4mm, a follow-up CT at 12 months is recommended in high risk persons, whilst for low-risk persons no follow-up is needed. If no growth is observed at 12 months, no further follow-up is required. For solid, smooth or attached indeterminate NCN between 5 and 10mm we recommend an annual repeat scan, whilst for purely intra-parenchymal nodules a 3-month repeat scan should be made to assess growth. Growing lesions with a volume doubling time <400 days require further work-up and diagnosis, otherwise an annual repeat scan to assess growth is recommended.

Lung cancer screening with CT

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Non-small cell lung cancer accounts for 75% to 80% of all lung cancers. There is an impetus to find a screening test that can detect non-small cell lung cancer in its early preclinical stages, when surgical resection is most likely to reduce lung cancer mortality. Although earlier randomized controlled trials of lung cancer screening using chest radiography and sputum cytology failed to show reduced lung cancer mortality, CT is a much more sensitive test for detecting small lung nodules, and has generated considerable enthusiasm as a potential contemporary screening tool for lung cancer.

Could CT screening for lung cancer ever be cost effective in the United Kingdom?

Background

The absence of trial evidence makes it impossible to determine whether or not mass screening for lung cancer would be cost effective and, indeed, whether a clinical trial to investigate the problem would be justified. Attempts have been made to resolve this issue by modelling, although the complex models developed to date have required more real-world data than are currently available. Being founded on unsubstantiated assumptions, they have produced estimates with wide confidence intervals and of uncertain relevance to the United Kingdom.

Method

I develop a simple, deterministic, model of a screening regimen potentially applicable to the UK. The model includes only a limited number of parameters, for the majority of which, values have already been established in non-trial settings. The component costs of screening are derived from government guidance and from published audits, whilst the values for test parameters are derived from clinical studies. The expected health gains as a result of screening are calculated by combining published survival data for screened and unscreened cohorts with data from Life Tables. When a degree of uncertainty over a parameter value exists, I use a conservative estimate, i.e. one likely to make screening appear less, rather than more, cost effective.

Results

The incremental cost effectiveness ratio of a single screen amongst a high-risk male population is calculated to be around £14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. The average cost of this screening regimen per person screened is around £200. It is possible that, when obtained experimentally in any future trial, parameter values will be found to differ from those previously obtained in non-trial settings. On the basis both of differing assumptions about evaluation conventions and of reasoned speculations as to how test parameters and costs might behave under screening, the model generates cost effectiveness ratios as high as around £20,000 and as low as around £7,000.

Conclusion

It is evident that eventually being able to identify a cost effective regimen of CT screening for lung cancer in the UK is by no means an unreasonable expectation.

Limited value of shape, margin and CT density in the discrimination between benign and malignant screen detected solid pulmonary nodules of the NELSON trial

PURPOSE

To evaluate prospectively the value of size, shape, margin and density in discriminating between benign and malignant CT screen detected solid non-calcified pulmonary nodules.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study was institutional review board approved. For this study 405 participants of the NELSON lung cancer screening trial with 469 indeterminate or potentially malignant solid pulmonary nodules (>50mm3) were selected. The nodules were classified based on size, shape (round, polygonal, irregular) and margin (smooth, lobulated, spiculated). Mean nodule density and nodule volume were automatically generated by software. Analyses were performed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results were presented as likelihood ratios (LR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed for mean density as predictor for lung cancer.

RESULTS

Of the 469 nodules, 387 (83%) were between 50 and 500mm3, 82 (17%) >500mm3, 59 (13%) malignant, 410 (87%) benign. The median size of the nodules was 103mm3 (range 50-5486mm3). In multivariate analysis lobulated nodules had LR of 11 compared to smooth; spiculated nodules a LR of 7 compared to smooth; irregular nodules a LR of 6 compared to round and polygonal; volume a LR of 3. The mean nodule CT density did not predict the presence of lung cancer (AUC 0.37, 95% CI 0.32-0.43).

CONCLUSION

In solid non-calcified nodules larger than 50mm3, size and to a lesser extent a lobulated or spiculated margin and irregular shape increased the likelihood that a nodule was malignant. Nodule density had no discriminative power.

Low-dose CT: a useful and accessible tool for the early diagnosis of lung cancer in selected populations

OBJECTIVE

An evaluation is made of the effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in diagnosing early stage lung cancer in the Autonomous Community of Madrid (Spain).

METHODS

The study comprised subjects over 50 years of age who were active smokers (or who had stopped smoking up to 6 months previously) who smoked more than 30 cigarettes daily for at least 15 years, or 20 cigarettes daily for 20 years, or more than 10packs/year and in contact with asbestos at work. The study group was evaluated using LDCT. For all participants in whom LDCT showed no pathological findings, or in those cases classified as benign, a new LDCT scan was performed 2 years after the first. In case of doubt regarding the benign nature of the findings, an assessment algorithm was applied.

RESULTS

Among the initial 482 candidates in the study group, 466 LDCT scans were performed at baseline, revealing 9 extrapulmonary lesions and 114 pulmonary lesions in 98 subjects. The latter raised diagnostic doubts in 32 cases; of these, 15 were confirmed as benign by high resolution computed tomography (HRCT). In the remaining 17 cases, stage IAp adenocarcinoma was diagnosed at baseline (0.2%). With LDCT after 2 years, an additional four adenocarcinomas were diagnosed-all in stage IAp (0.98%). The complete study, including prevalence cut-off and incidence calculation after 2 years, resulted in the diagnosis of five cancers (1.1%) and two false positive cases (28%).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of low-dose computed tomography in risk groups is valid for the early diagnosis of bronchogenic cancer. Nevertheless, significant problems remain, particularly those associated with false positive interpretations. The results of randomized studies on lung cancer mortality such as the US NLST trial and the Dutch-Belgian NELSON trial have to be awaited before any conclusion regarding the effectiveness of LDCT screening can be drawn.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer

Results of randomised trials are needed before recommending its adoption