Mass spectrometry-detected MGUS is associated with obesity and other novel modifiable risk factors in a high-risk population

ABSTRACT

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant condition of multiple myeloma with few known risk factors. The emergence of mass spectrometry (MS) for the detection of MGUS has provided new opportunities to evaluate its risk factors. In total, 2628 individuals at elevated risk for multiple myeloma were enrolled in a screening study and completed an exposure survey (PROMISE trial). Participant samples were screened by MS, and monoclonal proteins (M-proteins) with concentrations of ≥0.2 g/L were categorized as MS-MGUS. Multivariable logistic models evaluated associations between exposures and MS outcomes. Compared with normal weight (body mass index [BMI] of 18.5 to <25 kg/m2), obesity (BMI of ≥30 kg/m2) was associated with MS-MGUS, adjusting for age, sex, Black race, education, and income (odds ratio [OR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-2.47; P = .003). High physical activity (≥73.5 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-hours per week vs <10.5 MET-hours per week) had a decreased likelihood of MS-MGUS (OR, 0.45, 95% CI, 0.24-0.80; P = .009), whereas heavy smoking and short sleep had increased likelihood of MS-MGUS (>30 pack-years vs never smoker: OR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.24-3.74; P = .005, and sleep <6 vs ≥6 hours per day: OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.26-3.42; P = .003). In the analysis of all MS-detected monoclonal gammopathies, which are inclusive of M-proteins with concentrations of <0.2 g/L, elevated BMI and smoking were associated with all MS-positive cases. Findings suggest MS-detected monoclonal gammopathies are associated with a broader range of modifiable risk factors than what has been previously identified. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03689595.

Assessing Patient Readiness for an Electronic Patient-Reported Outcome-Based Symptom Management Intervention in a Multisite Study

PURPOSE

While the use of electronic patient-reported outcomes (ePROs) in routine clinical practice is increasing, barriers to patient engagement limit adoption. Studies have focused on technology access as a key barrier, yet other characteristics may also confound readiness to use ePROs including patients' confidence in using technology and confidence in asking clinicians questions.

METHODS

To assess readiness to use ePROs, adult patients from six US-based health systems who started a new oncology treatment or underwent a cancer-directed surgery were invited to complete a survey that assessed access to and confidence in the use of technology, ease of asking clinicians questions about health, and symptom management self-efficacy. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between technology confidence, ease of asking questions, and symptom management self-efficacy.

RESULTS

We contacted 3,212 individuals, and 1,043 (33%) responded. The median age was 63 years, 68% were female, and 75% reported having access to patient portals. Over 80% had two or more electronic devices. Most patients reported high technology confidence, higher ease of asking clinicians questions, and high symptom management self-efficacy (n = 692; 66%). Patients with high technology confidence also reported higher ease of asking nurses about their health (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.58 [95% CI, 2.36 to 8.87]; P ≤ .001). Those who reported higher ease of asking nurses questions were more likely to report higher confidence in managing symptoms (AOR, 30.54 [95% CI, 12.91 to 72.30]; P ≤ .001).

CONCLUSION

Patient readiness to use ePROs likely depends on multiple factors, including technology and communication confidence, and symptom management self-efficacy. Future studies should assess interventions to address these factors.

Mental health disorders and survival among older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the USA: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Mental health disorders can potentially decrease quality of life and survival in patients with cancer. Little is known about the survival implications of mental health disorders in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We aimed to evaluate the effect of pre-existing depression, anxiety, or both on survival in a US cohort of older patients with DLBCL.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare (SEER-Medicare) database, we identified patients aged 67 years or older, diagnosed with DLBCL in the USA between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2013. We used billing claims to identify patients with pre-existing depression, anxiety, or both before their DLBCL diagnosis. We compared 5-year overall survival and lymphoma-specific survival between these patients and those without pre-existing depression, anxiety, or both using Cox proportional analyses, adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, including DLBCL stage, extranodal disease, and B symptoms.

FINDINGS

Among 13 244 patients with DLBCL, 2094 (15·8%) had depression, anxiety, or both disorders; 6988 (52·8%) were female, and 12 468 (94·1%) were White. The median follow-up for the cohort was 2·0 years (IQR 0·4-6·9 years). 5-year overall survival was 27·0% (95% CI 25·1-28·9) for patients with these mental health disorders versus 37·4% (36·5-38·3) for those with no mental health disorder (hazard ratio [HR] 1·37, 95% CI 1·29-1·44). Although survival differences between mental health disorders were modest, those with depression alone had the worst survival compared with no mental health disorder (HR 1·37, 95% CI 1·28-1·47), followed by those with depression and anxiety (1·23, 1·08-1·41), and then anxiety alone (1·17, 1·06-1·29). Individuals with these pre-existing mental health disorders also had lower 5-year lymphoma-specific survival, with depression conferring the greatest effect (1·37, 1·26-1·49) followed by those with depression and anxiety (1·25, 1·07-1·47) and then anxiety alone (1·16, 1·03-1·31).

INTERPRETATION

Pre-existing depression, anxiety, or both disorders present within 24 months before DLBCL diagnosis, worsens prognosis for patients with DLBCL. Our data underscore the need for universal and systematic mental health screening for this population, as mental health disorders are manageable, and improvements in this prevalent comorbidity might affect lymphoma-specific survival and overall survival.

FUNDING

American Society of Hematology, National Cancer Institute, Alan J Hirschfield Award.

Breast Medical Oncologists' Perspectives of Telemedicine for Breast Cancer Care: A Survey Study

PURPOSE

The COVID-19 pandemic forced rapid adoption of telemedicine (TM) for breast oncology visits in the United States, but the appropriate role of postpandemic TM is uncertain. We sought to understand physician and advance practice practitioner perspectives on the use of TM for outpatient breast cancer care through an electronically administered survey.

METHODS

Breast medical oncology clinicians at two academic cancer centers and five satellite locations affiliated with the Dana Farber Cancer Institute and the Massachusetts General Cancer Center were invited to respond to a 21-question survey administered in September 2021 about clinicians' perceptions and attitudes toward TM during the previous 12 months.

RESULTS

Of the 71 survey invitations, 51 clinicians (36 physicians and 15 advance practice practitioners) provided survey responses (response rate = 72%). Ninety-two percent of respondents (n = 47) agreed that TM visits enhance patient care. Ninety-two percent of respondents (n = 46) also agreed that TM is valuable for early-stage breast cancer follow-up visits. Most respondents felt that there was no difference between TM and face-to-face (F2F) visits when it came to patient adherence, ease of ordering tests, ease of accessing patient records, and workflow outside of the visit (82%, 82%, 78%, and 53%, respectively). Fifty-one percent of respondents (n = 26) said that TM was better for timely access to follow-up appointments. Most respondents said that F2F visits were better for seeing physical problems, personal connection with patients, overall quality of visits, and patient-physician communication (100%, 75%, 65%, and 63%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Breast clinicians believe that TM is a valuable tool to enhance outpatient breast cancer care. TM was felt to be appropriate for routine follow-up visits and second opinion consultations and is as good as or better than F2F visits for several routine aspects of breast cancer care.

Association of Oncologist Participation in Medicare's Oncology Care Model With Patient Receipt of Novel Cancer Therapies

IMPORTANCE

Medicare's Oncology Care Model (OCM) was an alternative payment model that tied performance-based payments to cost and quality goals for participating oncology practices. A major concern about the OCM regarded inclusion of high-cost cancer therapies, which could potentially disincentivize oncologists from prescribing novel therapies.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether oncologist participation in the OCM changed the likelihood that patients received novel therapies vs alternative treatments.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data and Medicare claims compared patient receipt of novel therapies for patients treated by oncologists participating vs not participating in the OCM in the period before (January 2015-June 2016) and after (July 2016-December 2018) OCM initiation. Participants included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in SEER registries who were eligible to receive 1 of 10 novel cancer therapies that received US Food and Drug Administration approval in the 18 months before implementation of the OCM. The study excluded the Hawaii registry because complete data were not available at the time of the data request. Patients in the OCM vs non-OCM groups were matched on novel therapy cohort, outcome time period, and oncologist specialist status. Analysis was conducted between July 2021 and April 2022.

EXPOSURES

Oncologist participation in the OCM.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Preplanned analyses evaluated patient receipt of 1 of 10 novel therapies vs alternative therapies specific to the patient's cancer for the overall study sample and for racial subgroups.

RESULTS

The study included 2839 matched patients (760 in the OCM group and 2079 in the non-OCM group; median [IQR] age, 72.7 [68.3-77.6] years; 1591 women [56.0%]). Among patients in the non-OCM group, 33.2% received novel therapies before and 40.1% received novel therapies after the start of the OCM vs 39.9% and 50.3% of patients in the OCM group (adjusted difference-in-differences, 3.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.7 to 10.7 percentage points; P = .34). In subgroup analyses, second-line immunotherapy use in lung cancer was greater among patients in the OCM group vs non-OCM group (adjusted difference-in-differences, 17.4 percentage points; 95% CI, 4.8-30.0 percentage points; P = .007), but no differences were seen in other subgroups. Over the entire study period, patients with oncologists participating in the OCM were more likely to receive novel therapies than those with oncologists who were not participating (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.09-1.97; P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that participation in the OCM was not associated with oncologists' prescribing novel therapies to Medicare beneficiaries with cancer. These findings suggest that OCM financial incentives did not decrease patient access to novel therapies.

Geospatial Disparities in the Treatment of Curable Breast Cancer Across the US

IMPORTANCE

Patient factors help explain disparities in breast cancer treatments and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the extent to which geospatial variation in initial breast cancer care can be attributed to region vs patient factors with the aim of guiding quality improvement efforts.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective population-based cohort study from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2016, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database that included 31 571 patients diagnosed with stage I to III breast cancer from 2007 through 2013. Five metrics of care delivery were defined: stage I at diagnosis, chemotherapy receipt, radiation therapy receipt, endocrine therapy (ET) initiation (year 1), and ET continuation (years 3-5). Data analysis was performed from January to June 2021.

EXPOSURES

Stage I diagnosis and treatment with chemotherapy, radiation therapy, or ET.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

For each metric, total variance was attributed proportionally to 4 domains-random, patient factors (eg, age, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status), region (health service area [HSA]), and unexplained-using hierarchical multivariable modeling.

RESULTS

Of 31 571 total patients (median [IQR] age, 71 [68-75] years), 19 391 (61.4%) had stage I disease at diagnosis. Among eligible patients, 17 297 of 21 190 (81.6%) received radiation therapy, 7204 of 9903 (72.8%) received chemotherapy, 13 115 of 26 855 (48.8%) initiated ET, and 13 944 of 26 855 (52.1%) continued ET. Geospatial density (ie, heat) maps highlight regional performance patterns. For all 5 metrics, region/HSA explained more observed variation (24%-48%) than patient factors (1%-4%); the largest share of variation was unexplained (35%-54%). The metrics with the largest proportion of total variance attributed to region/HSA were ET initiation and continuation (28% and 39%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, there was substantial unexplained geospatial variation in initial breast cancer care. The variance attributed to region/HSA was multifold larger than that explained by patient factors. The importance of patient factors such as race and ethnicity notwithstanding, future quality improvement efforts should focus on reducing unwarranted geospatial variation, especially including optimizing the delivery of ET in low-performing regions.

Use of Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery Testing to Assess Gynecologic Surgeons: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 10-Years Experience

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To compare the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) exam scores between obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) and general surgery (GS) providers.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study at a single institution from July 2007 to May 2018. Categorical and continuous variables were analyzed with χ2 test, t test, and Wilcoxon rank sum test.

SETTING

Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC), Boston, MA, a tertiary care academic medical center.

PATIENTS

All providers who took the FLS exam at the Carl J. Shapiro Simulation and Skills Center at BIDMC.

INTERVENTIONS

FLS certification.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 205 BIDMC trainees and faculty took the FLS exam between July 2007 and May 2018, of which 176 were identified to be OBGYN or GS providers. The FLS certification pass rate was high for both specialties (97.0% OBGYN vs 96.1% sGS, p = .76). When comparing all providers, no significant difference was found in the mean manual skill test scores between surgical specialties (594.9 OBGYN vs 601.0 GS, p = .59); whereas, a significant difference was noted in the mean cognitive scores, with GS providers scoring higher than OBGYN providers (533.8 OBGYN vs 583.4 GS, p <.001). However, when adjusting for several variables in a multivariate linear regression model, surgical specialty was not a predictor for cognitive scores. In the multivariate analysis, age, sex, and test year were predictors for cognitive scores, with higher scores associated with younger age, male sex, and advancing calendar year. None of the variables were significant predictors of manual scores.

CONCLUSION

Both OBGYN and GS providers had extremely high FLS pass rates. In the multivariate analysis, surgical specialty was not a predictor for higher FLS test scores for either manual or cognitive test scores. Although OBGYN residency programs offer fewer years of training, OBGYN trainees demonstrate the capacity to perform well on the FLS exam.

Racial and ethnic disparities in mortality from gastric and esophageal adenocarcinoma

Background

Racial/ethnic differences in mortality have not been well studied for either non‐cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) or cardia gastric cancer (CGC). The aim of this study was to examine the US mortality rates for these cancer subtypes, as well as esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) as a comparator.

Methods

We identified 14 164 individuals who died from NCGC, 5235 from CGC, and 13 982 from EAC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Age‐adjusted incidence‐based mortality rates and corresponding annual percent changes (APCs) were calculated. Analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity, age, and stage of disease at diagnosis.

Results

The mortality rate in NCGC was two‐ to threefold higher in blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Pacific Islanders (PI) than non‐Hispanic whites, and was significant across all age groups and stages of disease (P < .01). Mortality in CGC was higher in non‐Hispanic whites than blacks and Asians/PI, particularly in individuals in the 50‐64 year age group and those with stage IV disease. Mortality in EAC was two‐ to sixfold higher in non‐Hispanic whites than all other groups across all age groups and stages of disease. From 2004 to 2016, mortality rates were stable across all racial/ethnic groups in NCGC and CGC, and in minority groups with EAC, but have been rising in non‐Hispanic whites with EAC (APC 3.03, 95% CI 0.17‐5.96).

Conclusions

This is the largest study of incidence‐based mortality in CGC and NCGC and demonstrates racial/ethnic differences in mortality between these subtypes. Mortality rates for NCGC are highest in minority groups, and have been stable in recent years despite declining incidence. Mortality rates for CGC are marginally higher in middle‐aged non‐Hispanic whites with advanced disease, though have remained stable. In contrast, mortality in EAC has been rising for non‐Hispanic whites, in parallel to incidence. Further studies are needed to refine prevention strategies for high‐risk individuals dying from these specific cancer subtypes.

Racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer treatment utilization and phase-specific costs, 2000-2014

BACKGROUND

Our study analyzed disparities in utilization and phase-specific costs of care among older colorectal cancer patients in the United States. We also estimated the phase-specific costs by cancer type, stage at diagnosis, and treatment modality.

METHODS

We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database to identify patients aged 66 or older diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer between 2000-2013, with follow-up to death or December 31, 2014. We divided the patient's experience into separate phases of care: staging or surgery, initial, continuing, and terminal. We calculated total, cancer-attributable, and patient-liability costs. We fit logistic regression models to determine predictors of treatment receipt and fit linear regression models to determine relative costs. All costs are reported in 2019 US dollars.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 90,023 colon cancer patients and 25,581 rectal cancer patients. After controlling for patient and clinical characteristics, Non-Hispanic Blacks were less likely to receive treatment but were more likely to have higher cancer-attributable costs within different phases of care. Overall, in both the colon and rectal cancer cohorts, mean monthly cost estimates were highest in the terminal phase, next highest in the staging phase, decreased in the initial phase, and were lowest in the continuing phase.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial/ethnic disparities in treatment utilization and costs persist among colorectal cancer patients. Additionally, colorectal cancer costs are substantial and vary widely among stages and treatment modalities. This study provides information regarding cost and treatment disparities that can be used to guide clinical interventions and future resource allocation to reduce colorectal cancer burden.

Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of Targeted Surgical and Endoscopic Therapies for Early Colorectal Adenocarcinoma Based on Biomarker Profiles

IMPORTANCE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States. The prognosis for patients with CRC varies widely, but new prognostic biomarkers provide the opportunity to implement a more individualized approach to treatment selection.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 therapeutic strategies, namely, endoscopic therapy (ET), laparoscopic colectomy (LC), and open colectomy (OC), for patients with T1 CRC with biomarker profiles that prognosticate varying levels of tumor progression in the US payer perspective.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this economic evaluation study, a Markov model was developed for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Risks of all-cause mortality and recurrent cancer after ET, LC, or OC were estimated with a 35-year time horizon. Quality of life was based on EuroQoL 5 Dimensions scores reported in the published literature. Hospital and treatment costs reflected Medicare reimbursement rates. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Data from patients with T1 CRC and 6 biomarker profiles that included adenomatous polyposis coli (APC), TP53 and/or KRAS, or BRAFV600E were used as inputs for the model. Data analyses were conducted from February 27, 2019, to May 13, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Endoscopic therapy, LC, and OC.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were unadjusted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between competing treatment strategies.

RESULTS

Endoscopic therapy had the highest QALYs and the lowest cost and was the dominant treatment strategy for T1 CRC with the following biomarker profiles: BRAFV600E, APC(1)/KRAS/TP53, APC(2) or APC(2)/KRAS or APC(2)/TP53, or APC(1) or APC(1)/KRAS or APC(1)/TP53. The QALYs gained ranged from 16.97 to 17.22, with costs between $68 902.75 and $77 784.53 in these subgroups. For the 2 more aggressive biomarker profiles with worse prognoses (APC(2)/KRAS/TP53 and APCwt [wild type]), LC was the most effective strategy (with 16.45 and 16.61 QALYs gained, respectively) but was not cost-effective. Laparoscopic colectomy cost $65 234.87 for APC(2)/KRAS/TP53 and $71 250.56 for APCwt, resulting in ICERs of $113 290 per QALY and $178 765 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This modeling analysis found that ET was the most effective strategy for patients with T1 CRC with less aggressive biomarker profiles. For patients with more aggressive profiles, LC was more effective but was costly, rendering ET the cost-effective option. This study highlights the potential utility of prognostic biomarkers in T1 CRC treatment selection.

Cost and Utilization of Lung Cancer End-of-Life Care Among Racial-Ethnic Minority Groups in the United States

BACKGROUND

The end-of-life period is a crucial time in lung cancer care. To have a better understanding of the racial-ethnic disparities in health care expenditures, access, and quality, we evaluated these disparities specifically in the end-of-life period for patients with lung cancer in the U.S.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database to analyze characteristics of lung cancer care among those diagnosed between the years 2000 and 2011. Linear and logistic regression models were constructed to measure racial-ethnic disparities in end-of-life care cost and utilization among non-Hispanic (NH) Asian, NH black, Hispanic, and NH white patients while controlling for other risk factors such as age, sex, and SEER geographic region.

RESULTS

Total costs and hospital utilization were, on average, greater among racial-ethnic minorities compared with NH white patients in the last month of life. Among patients with NSCLC, the relative total costs were 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-1.33) for NH black patients, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.25-1.49) for NH Asian patients, and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.07-1.38) for Hispanic patients. Additionally, the odds of being admitted to a hospital for NH black, NH Asian, and Hispanic patients were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.15-1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.32-1.63), and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01-1.38) times that of NH white patients, respectively. Similar results were found for patients with SCLC.

CONCLUSION

Minority patients with lung cancer have significantly higher end-of-life medical expenditures than NH white patients, which may be explained by a greater intensity of care in the end-of-life period.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

This study investigated racial-ethnic disparities in the cost and utilization of medical care among lung cancer patients during the end-of-life period. Compared with non-Hispanic white patients, racial-ethnic minority patients were more likely to receive intensive care in their final month of life and had statistically significantly higher end-of-life care costs. The findings of this study may lead to a better understanding of the racial-ethnic disparities in end-of-life care, which can better inform future end-of-life interventions and help health care providers develop less intensive and more equitable care, such as culturally competent advanced care planning programs, for all patients.

Pancreatic cancer treatment costs, including patient liability, by phase of care and treatment modality, 2000-2013

OBJECTIVES

Our study provides phase-specific cost estimates for pancreatic cancer based on stage and treatment. We compare treatment costs between the different phases and within the stage and treatment modality subgroups.

METHODS

Our cohort included 20,917 pancreatic cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database diagnosed between 2000 and 2011. We allocated costs into four phases of care-staging (or surgery), initial, continuing, and terminal- and calculated the total, cancer-attributable, and patient-liability costs in 2018 US dollars. We fit linear regression models using log transformation to determine whether costs were predicted by age and calendar year.

RESULTS

Monthly cost estimates were high during the staging and surgery phases, decreased over the initial and continuing phases, and increased during the three-month terminal phase. Overall, the linear regression models showed that cancer-attributable costs either remained stable or increased by year, and either were unaffected by age or decreased with older age; continuing phase costs for stage II patients increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates demonstrate that pancreatic cancer costs can vary widely by stage and treatment received. These cost estimates can serve as an important baseline foundation to guide resource allocation for cancer care and research in the future.

Esophageal cancer treatment costs by phase of care and treatment modality, 2000-2013

BACKGROUND

Detailed cost estimates are not widely available for esophageal cancer. Our study estimates phase-specific costs for esophageal cancer by age, year, histology, stage, and treatment for older patients in the United States and compares these costs within stage and treatment modalities.

METHODS

We identified 8061 esophageal cancer patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database for years 1998-2013. Total, cancer-attributable, and patient-liability costs were calculated based on separate phases of care-staging (or surgery), initial, continuing, and terminal. We estimated costs by treatment modality within stage and phase for esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma separately. We fit linear regression models using log transformation to determine cost by age and calendar year. All costs are reported in 2018 US dollars.

RESULTS

Overall, mean (95% CI) monthly total cost estimates were high during the staging ($8953 [$8385-$9485]) and initial phases ($7731 [$7492-$7970]), decreased over the continuing phase ($2984 [$2814-$3154]), and increased substantially during the 6-month terminal phase ($18 150 [$17 211-$19 089]). This pattern of high staging and initial phase costs, decreasing continuing phase costs, and increasing terminal phase costs was seen in all stages. The highest staging costs were in stages III ($9249, $8025-$10 474) and II ($9171, $7642-$10 699). The highest initial phase cost was in stage IV, $9263 ($8758-49 768), the lowest continuing phase cost was in stage I, $2338 ($2160-$2517), and the highest terminal phase costs were in stages II ($20 533, $17 772-$23 293) and III ($20 599, $18 268-$22 929). The linear regression models showed that cancer-attributable costs remained stable over the study period and were unaffected by age for most histology, stage, and treatment modality subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates demonstrate that esophageal cancer costs can vary widely by histology, stage, and treatment. These cost estimates can be used to guide future resource allocation for esophageal cancer care and research.

Computational modeling of pancreatic cancer patients receiving FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine-based therapies identifies optimum intervention strategies

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) exhibits a variety of phenotypes with regard to disease progression and treatment response. This variability complicates clinical decision-making despite the improvement of survival due to the recent introduction of FOLFIRINOX (FFX) and nab-paclitaxel. Questions remain as to the timing and sequence of therapies and the role of radiotherapy for unresectable PDAC. Here we developed a computational analysis platform to investigate the dynamics of growth, metastasis and treatment response to FFX, gemcitabine (GEM), and GEM+nab-paclitaxel. Our approach was informed using data of 1,089 patients treated at the Massachusetts General Hospital and validated using an independent cohort from Osaka Medical College. Our framework establishes a logistic growth pattern of PDAC and defines the Local Advancement Index (LAI), which determines the eventual primary tumor size and predicts the number of metastases. We found that a smaller LAI leads to a larger metastatic burden. Furthermore, our analyses ascertain that i) radiotherapy after induction chemotherapy improves survival in cases receiving induction FFX or with larger LAI, ii) neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in cases with resectable PDAC, and iii) temporary cessations of chemotherapies do not impact overall survival, which supports the feasibility of treatment holidays for patients with FFX-associated adverse effects. Our findings inform clinical decision-making for PDAC patients and allow for the rational design of clinical strategies using FFX, GEM, GEM+nab-paclitaxel, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and radiation.

Prevalence of Cervical Dysplasia in HIV-Positive and HIV-Negative Women at the Sihanouk Hospital Center of HOPE, Phnom Penh , Cambodia

Introduction:

There is a high burden of cervical cancer in Cambodia, yet published data on the prevalence of cervical dysplasia and the risk factors contributing to the development of pre-cancerous lesions in Cambodian women is very limited. In addition, as it is well known that HIV positivity increases cervical cancer risk, it is important to quantify the prevalence of cervical dysplasia and carcinoma among Cambodian women living with HIV disease.

Methods:

A cross-sectional study was conducted with a sample of 499 HIV+ and 501 HIV- Cambodian women at the Sihanouk Hospital Center of HOPE. Visual inspection with 5% acetic acid was the method of screening. Colposcopy was performed on all VIA+ patients, and subsequent treatment followed WHO guidelines. Logistic regression models, stratified by both HIV+ and HIV- groups, were used to assess significant factors associated with having dysplasia.

Results:

VIA+ results were prevalent in both the HIV+ and HIV- arms of the study. The HIV+ patients were more likely to have a lower age at coitarche, lower weight, 2 or more lifetime sexual partners, two or greater pregnancies, or be unmarried. The estimated prevalence of VIA detected cervical dysplasia was 11% for the entire study sample, 13.4% in the HIV positive (HIV+) group and 8.6% in the HIV negative (HIV-) group (OR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.48; p=0.01). For the HIV+ group, having a history of 4 or more full-term pregnancies (OR: 3.42; 95% CI: 1.01-11.64; p=0.049) was found to be significantly associated with having an increased risk of developing cervical dysplasia in the multivariate model.

Conclusion:

Cervical dysplasia is prevalent in both HIV positive and negative Cambodian women and a VIA based national screening programs need to be developed and expanded to provide access to affordable and effective treatment for cervical dysplasia and cancers.

Disparities and Trends in Genetic Testing and Erlotinib Treatment among Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Despite reports of socioeconomic disparities in rates of genetic testing and targeted therapy treatment for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), little is known about whether such disparities are changing over time.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis to identify disparities and trends in genetic testing and treatment with erlotinib. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we identified 9,900 patients with stage IV NSCLC diagnosed in 2007 to 2011 at age 65 or older. We performed logistic regression analyses to identify patient factors associated with odds of receiving a genetic test and erlotinib treatment, and to assess trends in these differences with respect to diagnosis year.

RESULTS

Patients were more likely to receive genetic testing if they were under age 75 at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR), 1.55] independent of comorbidity level, and this age-based gap showed a decrease over time (OR, 0.93). For untested patients, erlotinib treatment was associated with race (OR, 0.58, black vs. white; OR, 2.45, Asian vs. white), and was more likely among female patients (OR, 1.45); for tested patients, erlotinib treatment was less likely among low-income patients (OR, 0.32). Most of these associations persisted or increased in magnitude.

CONCLUSIONS

Race and sex are associated with rates of erlotinib treatment for patients who did not receive genetic testing, and low-income status is associated with treatment rates for those who did receive testing. The racial disparity remained stable over time, while the income-based disparity grew larger.

IMPACT

Attention to reducing disparities is needed as precision cancer treatments continue to be developed.

Lung cancer costs by treatment strategy and phase of care among patients enrolled in Medicare

Background

We studied trends in lung cancer treatment cost over time by phase of care, treatment strategy, age, stage at diagnosis, and histology.

Methods

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare database for years 1998‐2013, we allocated total and patient‐liability costs into the following phases of care for 145 988 lung cancer patients: prediagnosis, staging, surgery, initial, continuing, and terminal. Patients served as self‐controls to determine cancer‐attributable costs based on individual precancer diagnosis healthcare costs. We fit linear regression models to determine cost by age and calendar year for each stage at diagnosis, histology, and treatment strategy and presented all costs in 2017 US dollars.

Results

Monthly healthcare costs prior to lung cancer diagnosis were $861 for a 70 years old in 2017 and rose by an average of $17 per year (P < 0.001). Surgery in 2017 cost $30 096, decreasing by $257 per year (P = 0.007). Chemotherapy and radiation costs remained stable or increased for most stage and histology groups, ranging from $4242 to $8287 per month during the initial six months of care. Costs during the final six months of life decreased for those who died of lung cancer or other causes.

Conclusions

Cost‐effectiveness analyses of lung cancer control interventions in the United States have been using outdated and incomplete treatment cost estimates. Our cost estimates enable updated cost‐effectiveness analyses to determine the benefit of lung cancer control from a health economics point of view.

Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model

OBJECTIVES

To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection.

RESULTS

We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Patterns and predictors of end-of-life care in older patients with pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Little is known about end-of-life care among patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database to analyze patterns of hospice use and end-of-life treatment in patients with PDAC.

METHODS

We included patients diagnosed with PDAC between 2000-2011 and who had died by December 31, 2012. We assessed patterns of hospice use, chemotherapy receipt, and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions at end-of-life. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate predictors of end-of-life care.

RESULTS

In our cohort of 16 309 patients, 70.5% enrolled in hospice, of which 29.1% enrolled in the last 7 days of life. Use of hospice increased over time, from 61.6% in 2000 to 77.5% in 2012 (P-value for trend <0.0001). Among the entire cohort, 6.4% received chemotherapy within the last 14 days of life and 13.1% were admitted to the ICU within the last 30 days of life. Late ICU admissions increased over time, while chemotherapy receipt at the end-of-life decreased. Patients who were older, female, with higher SES, or from the South or Midwest were more likely to enroll in hospice. Those who were younger or male were more likely to receive chemotherapy or have an ICU admission at the end-of-life.

CONCLUSION

Although hospice enrollment has increased among patients with PDAC, late enrollment still occurs in a substantial proportion of patients. While chemotherapy at the end-of-life has decreased slightly, ICU admissions at the end-of-life have continued to increase. Further research is needed to determine effective ways of enhancing end-of-life care for patients with PDAC.

Survival Disparities by Race and Ethnicity in Early Esophageal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Survival outcome disparities among esophageal cancer patients exist, but are not fully understood.

AIMS

We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database to determine whether survival differences among racial/ethnic patient populations persist after adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics.

METHODS

Our study included T1-3N0M0 adenocarcinoma and squamous cell cancer patients diagnosed between 2003 and 2011. We compared survival among two racial/ethnic patient subgroups using Cox proportional hazards methods, adjusting for age, sex, histology, marital status, socioeconomics, SEER region, comorbidities, T stage, tumor location, diagnosis year, and treatment received.

RESULTS

Among 2025 patients, 87.9% were White and 12.1% were Nonwhite. Median survival was 18.7 months for Whites vs 13.8 months for Nonwhites (p = 0.01). In the unadjusted model, Nonwhite patients had higher risk of mortality (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.11-1.49, p < 0.0001) when compared to White patients; however, in the Cox regression adjusted model there was no significant difference (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80-1.10, p = 0.44). Surgery, chemotherapy, younger age, lower T stage, and lower Charlson comorbidity score were significant predictors in the full adjusted model.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in mortality risk by race/ethnicity appear to be largely explained by additional factors. In particular, associations were seen in surgery and T stage. Further research is needed to understand potential mechanisms underlying the differences and to better target patients who can benefit from treatment options.

Hospice use and end-of-life care among older patients with esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

Hospice and end-of-life health care utilization among patients with esophageal cancer are understudied. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database to analyze hospice use and end-of-life treatment patterns.

METHODS

We included patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma between 2000 and 2011 and who had died by December 31, 2013. We evaluated patterns of hospice enrollment, chemotherapy receipt, radiation receipt, acute care hospitalizations, and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions at end of life. We used multivariate logistic regression to evaluate possible associations with hospice use, late ICU admission, and late chemotherapy receipt.

RESULTS

Our study included 6449 patients; 3597 (55.8%) enrolled in hospice. Among hospice enrolled patients, 31.4% enrolled in the last 7 days of life. Hospice enrollment increased over time, from 43.2% in 2000 to 59.6% in 2013. Patients who were older, female, with stage IV disease, or those with higher socioeconomic status were more likely to enroll in hospice. Among all patients, 19.1% had an ICU admission within the last 30 days and 4.6% received chemotherapy within the last 14 days of life. Those who were Black or Asian (compared to White), married, or had a comorbidity score >1 were more likely to have a late ICU admission. Males and younger patients were more likely to receive chemotherapy at end of life.

CONCLUSION

Hospice enrollment rates among patients with esophageal cancer have increased over time; however, a significant percentage of patients enrolls near the end of life. Further research is needed to improve understanding of how end-of-life care decisions for these patients are made.

Disparities in cancer outcomes across age, sex, and race/ethnicity among patients with pancreatic cancer

Age, sex, and racial/ethnic disparities exist, but are understudied in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database to determine whether survival and treatment disparities persist after adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Our study included PDAC patients diagnosed between 1992 and 2011. We used Cox regression to compare survival across age, sex, and race/ethnicity within early-stage and late-stage cancer subgroups, adjusting for marital status, urban location, socioeconomics, SEER region, comorbidities, stage, lymph node status, tumor location, tumor grade, diagnosis year, and treatment received. We used logistic regression to compare differences in treatment received across age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Among 20,896 patients, 84% were White, 9% Black, 5% Asian, and 2% Hispanic. Median age was 75; 56% were female and 53% had late-stage cancer. Among early-stage patients in the adjusted Cox model, older patient subgroups had worse survival compared with ages 66-69 (HR > 1.1, P < 0.01 for groups >69); no survival differences existed between sexes. Black (HR = 1.1, P = 0.01) and Hispanic (HR = 1.2, P < 0.01) patients had worse survival compared with White. Among late-stage cancer patients, patients over age 84 had worse survival than those aged 66-69 (HR = 1.1, P < 0.01), and males (HR = 1.08, P < 0.01) had worse survival than females; there were no racial/ethnic differences. Older age and minority race/ethnicity were associated with lower likelihood of receiving chemotherapy, radiation, and/or surgery. Age and racial/ethnic disparities in survival outcomes and treatment received exist for PDAC patients; these disparities persist after adjusting for differences in demographic and clinical characteristics.

Comparative effectiveness of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy after gastrectomy among older patients with gastric adenocarcinoma: a SEER-Medicare study

BACKGROUND

Since the INT-0116 trial reported a survival advantage, postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) has been a care standard for US patients in whom gastric adenocarcinoma has been diagnosed. We sought to estimate the association between treatment and survival among the older US Medicare population.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-79 years with stage IB-III gastric adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 2002 and 2009 in a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results region. Patients were categorized on the basis of treatment: (1) gastrectomy only and (2) gastrectomy plus adjuvant CRT. We examined factors associated with receipt of adjuvant CRT, including stage at diagnosis, comorbidity, and tumor subtype. Overall survival was measured from 90 days after gastrectomy until death or the censoring date of December 31, 2010.

RESULTS

Of the 1519 patients who underwent gastrectomy, 41.7% received adjuvant CRT. Factors associated with adjuvant CRT included age younger than 75 years at cancer diagnosis and stage II or stage III cancer. The median overall survival from the time of gastrectomy was 25.1 months (interquartile range 43.7 months) for gastrectomy only and 26.9 months (interquartile range 40.9 months) for adjuvant CRT. Multivariable and propensity-score-stratified models demonstrated a survival benefit associated with adjuvant CRT [hazard ratio (HR) 0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-0.67], although the magnitude was greater for stage II tumors (HR 0.50; 95% CI 0.39-0.61) and stage III tumors (HR 0.58; 95% CI 0.45-0.73) than for stage IB tumors (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.71-1.45).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjuvant CRT, in conjunction with gastrectomy, was associated with a survival benefit among older patients with stage II or stage III tumors.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease for Barrett's Esophagus With a Minimally Invasive Cell Sampling Device

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is important to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients with BE usually are identified by endoscopy, which is expensive. The Cytosponge, which collects tissue from the esophagus noninvasively, could be a cost-effective tool for screening individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) who are at increased risk for BE. We developed a model to analyze the cost effectiveness of using the Cytosponge in first-line screening of patients with GERD for BE with endoscopic confirmation, compared with endoscopy screening only.

METHODS

We incorporated data from a large clinical trial of Cytosponge performance into 2 validated microsimulation models of EAC progression (the esophageal adenocarcinoma model from Massachusetts General Hospital and the microsimulation screening analysis model from Erasmus University Medical Center). The models were calibrated for US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data on EAC incidence and mortality. In each model, we simulated the effect of a 1-time screen for BE in male patients with GERD, 60 years of age, using endoscopy alone or Cytosponge collection of tissue, and analysis for the level of trefoil factor 3 with endoscopic confirmation of positive results. For each strategy we recorded the number of cases of EAC that developed, the number of EAC cases detected with screening by Cytosponge only or by subsequent targeted surveillance, and the number of endoscopies needed. In addition, we recorded the cumulative costs (including indirect costs) incurred and quality-adjusted years of life lived within each strategy, discounted at a rate of 3% per year, and computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among the 3 strategies.

RESULTS

According to the models, screening patients with GERD by Cytosponge with follow-up confirmation of positive results by endoscopy would reduce the cost of screening by 27% to 29% compared with screening by endoscopy, but led to 1.8 to 5.5 (per 1000 patients) fewer quality-adjusted life years. The ICERs for Cytosponge screening compared with no screening ranged from $26,358 to $33,307. For screening patients by endoscopy compared with Cytosponge the ICERs ranged from $107,583 to $330,361. These results were sensitive to Cytosponge cost within a plausible range of values.

CONCLUSIONS

In a comparative modeling analysis of screening strategies for BE in patients with GERD, we found Cytosponge screening with endoscopic confirmation to be a cost-effective strategy. The greatest benefit was achieved by endoscopic screening, but with an unfavorable cost margin.

Early Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Survival Is Dependent on Size: Positive Implications for Future Targeted Screening

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not experienced a meaningful mortality improvement for the past few decades. Successful screening is difficult to accomplish because most PDACs present late in their natural history, and current interventions have not provided significant benefit. Our goal was to identify determinants of survival for early PDAC to help inform future screening strategies.

METHODS

Early PDACs from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database (2000-2010) were analyzed. We stratified by size and included carcinomas in situ (Tis). Overall cancer-specific survival was calculated. A Cox proportional hazards model was developed and the significance of key covariates for survival prediction was evaluated.

RESULTS

A Kaplan-Meier plot demonstrated significant differences in survival by size at diagnosis; these survival benefits persisted after adjustment for key covariates in the Cox proportional hazards analysis. In addition, relatively weaker predictors of worse survival included older age, male sex, black race, nodal involvement, tumor location within the head of the pancreas, and no surgery or radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

For early PDAC, we found tumor size to be the strongest predictor of survival, even after adjustment for other patient characteristics. Our findings suggest that early PDAC detection can have clinical benefit, which has positive implications for future screening strategies.

Screening for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at heightened risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, which gives rise to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cirrhosis. Yet, current guidelines do not recommend screening for NASH among these high-risk patients. Using a simulation model, we assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening diabetic patients for NASH.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to compare two management strategies for 50-year-olds with diabetes. In the No Screening strategy, patients do not undergo screening, although NASH may be diagnosed incidentally over their lifetime. In the NASH Screening strategy, all patients receive a one-time screening ultrasound. Individuals with fatty infiltration on ultrasound then have a liver biopsy, and those found to have NASH receive medical therapy, which decreases progression to cirrhosis. Endpoints evaluated included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

Screening for NASH decreased the number of individuals who developed cirrhosis by 12.9 % and resulted in an 11.9 % decrease in liver-related deaths. However, screening resulted in 0.02 fewer QALYs, due to the disutility associated with treatment, and was therefore dominated by the No Screening strategy. When the model excluded this quality-of-life decrement, screening became cost-effective, at an ICER of $42,134 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for NASH may improve liver-related outcomes, but is not cost-effective at present, due to side effects of therapy. As better tolerated treatments for NASH become available, even with modest efficacy, screening for NASH will become cost-effective.

Evaluating the impacts of screening and smoking cessation programmes on lung cancer in a high-burden region of the USA: a simulation modelling study

OBJECTIVE

While the US Preventive Services Task Force has issued recommendations for lung cancer screening, its effectiveness at reducing lung cancer burden may vary at local levels due to regional variations in smoking behaviour. Our objective was to use an existing model to determine the impacts of lung cancer screening alone or in addition to increased smoking cessation in a US region with a relatively high smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence.

SETTING

Computer-based simulation model.

PARTICIPANTS

Simulated population of individuals 55 and older based on smoking prevalence and census data from Northeast Pennsylvania.

INTERVENTIONS

Hypothetical lung cancer control from 2014 to 2050 through (1) screening with CT, (2) intensified smoking cessation or (3) a combination strategy.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes were lung cancer mortality rates. Secondary outcomes included number of people eligible for screening and number of radiation-induced lung cancers.

RESULTS

Combining lung cancer screening with increased smoking cessation would yield an estimated 8.1% reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality by 2050. Our model estimated that the number of screening-eligible individuals would progressively decrease over time, indicating declining benefit of a screening-only programme. Lung cancer screening achieved a greater mortality reduction in earlier years, but was later surpassed by smoking cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining smoking cessation programmes with lung cancer screening would provide the most benefit to a population, especially considering the growing proportion of patients ineligible for screening based on current recommendations.

Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer screening with annual chest computed tomography (CT) is recommended for current and former smokers with a ≥30-pack-year smoking history. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of developing lung cancer and may benefit from screening at lower pack-year thresholds.

METHODS

We used a previously validated simulation model to compare the health benefits of lung cancer screening in current and former smokers ages 55-80 with ≥30 pack-years with hypothetical programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD (≥20, ≥10, and ≥1 pack-years). Calibration targets for COPD prevalence and associated lung cancer risk were derived using the Framingham Offspring Study limited data set. We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the stability of results across different rates of adherence to screening, increased competing mortality risk from COPD, and increased surgical ineligibility in individuals with COPD. The primary outcome was projected life expectancy.

RESULTS

Programs using lower pack-year thresholds for individuals with COPD yielded the highest life expectancy gains for a given number of screens. Highest life expectancy was achieved when lowering the pack-year threshold to ≥1 pack-year for individuals with COPD, which dominated all other screening strategies. These results were stable across different adherence rates to screening and increases in competing mortality risk for COPD and surgical ineligibility.

CONCLUSIONS

Current and former smokers with COPD may disproportionately benefit from lung cancer screening. A lower pack-year threshold for screening eligibility may benefit this high-risk patient population.

High-resolution microendoscopy for esophageal cancer screening in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

AIM

To study the cost-effectiveness of high-resolution microendoscopy (HRME) in an esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening program in China.

METHODS

A decision analytic Markov model of ESCC was developed. Separate model analyses were conducted for cohorts consisting of an average-risk population or a high-risk population in China. Hypothetical 50-year-old individuals were followed until age 80 or death. We compared three different strategies for both cohorts: (1) no screening; (2) standard endoscopic screening with Lugol's iodine staining; and (3) endoscopic screening with Lugol's iodine staining and an HRME. Model parameters were estimated from the literature as well as from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence and Mortality Worldwide cancer database. Health states in the model included non-neoplasia, mild dysplasia, moderate dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia, intramucosal carcinoma, operable cancer, inoperable cancer, and death. Separate ESCC incidence transition rates were generated for the average-risk and high-risk populations. Costs in Chinese currency were converted to international dollars (I$) and were adjusted to 2012 dollars using the Consumer Price Index.

RESULTS

The main outcome measurements for this study were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). For the average-risk population, the HRME screening strategy produced 0.043 more QALYs than the no screening strategy at an additional cost of I$646, resulting in an ICER of I$11808 per QALY gained. Standard endoscopic screening was weakly dominated. Among the high-risk population, when the HRME screening strategy was compared with the standard screening strategy, the ICER was I$8173 per QALY. For both the high-risk and average-risk screening populations, the HRME screening strategy appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy, producing ICERs below the willingness-to-pay threshold, I$23500 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that, for the average-risk population, higher specificity of Lugol's iodine (> 40%) and lower specificity of HRME (< 70%) could make Lugol's iodine screening cost-effective. For the high-risk population, the results of the model were not substantially affected by varying the follow-up rate after Lugol's iodine screening, Lugol's iodine test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity), or HRME specificity.

CONCLUSION

The incorporation of HRME into an ESCC screening program could be cost-effective in China. Larger studies of HRME performance are needed to confirm these findings.

Catalog and comparison of societal preferences (utilities) for lung cancer health states: results from the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study

BACKGROUND

The EQ-5D and SF-6D are 2 health-related quality-of-life indexes that provide preference-weighted measures for use in cost-effectiveness analyses.

METHODS

The National Cancer Institute's Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) Consortium included the EQ-5D and SF-12v2 in their survey of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients. Utilities were calculated from patient-provided scores for each domain of the EQ-5D or the SF-6D. Utilities were calculated for categories of cancer type, stage, and treatment.

RESULTS

There were 5015 enrolled lung cancer patients with a baseline survey in CanCORS; 2396 (47.8%) completed the EQ-5D, and 2344 (46.7%) also completed the SF-12v2. The mean (standard deviation) utility from the EQ-5D was 0.78 (0.18), and from the SF-6D (derived from SF-12v2) was 0.68 (0.14). The EQ-5D demonstrated a ceiling effect, with 20% of patients reporting perfect scores, translating to a utility of 1.0. No substantial SF-6D floor effects were noted. Utilities increased with age and decreased with stage and comorbidities. Patient-reported (EQ-5D) visual analog scale scores for health status had a moderate (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001) positive correlation with utilities. A subset (n = 1474) completed follow-up EQ-5D questionnaires 11-13 months after diagnosis. Among these patients, there was a nonsignificant decrease in mean utility for stage IV and an increase in mean utility for stages I, II, and III.

CONCLUSION

This study generated a catalog of community-weighted utilities applicable to societal-perspective cost-effectiveness analyses of lung cancer interventions and compared utilities based on the EQ-5D and SF-6D. Potential users of these scores should be aware of the limitations and think carefully about their use in specific studies.

Statins and aspirin for chemoprevention in Barrett's esophagus: results of a cost-effectiveness analysis

Data suggest that aspirin, statins, or a combination of the two drugs may lower the progression of Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, aspirin is associated with potential complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke, and statins are associated with myopathy. We developed a simulation disease model to study the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of aspirin and statin chemoprevention against esophageal adenocarcinoma. A decision analytic Markov model was constructed to compare four strategies for Barrett's esophagus management; all regimens included standard endoscopic surveillance regimens: (i) endoscopic surveillance alone, (ii) aspirin therapy, (iii) statin therapy, and (iv) combination therapy of aspirin and statin. Endpoints evaluated were life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the impact of model input uncertainty on results. Assuming an annual progression rate of 0.33% per year from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma, aspirin therapy was more effective and cost less than (dominated) endoscopic surveillance alone. When combination therapy was compared with aspirin therapy, the ICER was $158,000/QALY, which was above our willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Statin therapy was dominated by combination therapy. When higher annual cancer progression rates were assumed in the model (0.5% per year), combination therapy was cost-effective compared with aspirin therapy, producing an ICER of $96,000/QALY. In conclusion, aspirin chemoprevention was both more effective and cost less than endoscopic surveillance alone. Combination therapy using both aspirin and statin is expensive but could be cost-effective in patients at higher risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Chapter 9: The MGH-HMS lung cancer policy model: tobacco control versus screening

The natural history model underlying the MGH Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) does not include the two-stage clonal expansion model employed in other CISNET lung models. We used the LCPM to predict numbers of U.S. lung cancer deaths for ages 30-84 between 1975 and 2000 under four scenarios as part of the comparative modeling analysis described in this issue. The LCPM is a comprehensive microsimulation model of lung cancer development, progression, detection, treatment, and survival. Individual-level patient histories are aggregated to estimate cohort or population-level outcomes. Lung cancer states are defined according to underlying disease variables, test results, and clinical events. By simulating detailed clinical procedures, the LCPM can predict benefits and harms attributable to a variety of patient management practices, including annual screening programs. Under the scenario of observed smoking patterns, predicted numbers of deaths from the calibrated LCPM were within 2% of observed over all years (1975-2000). The LCPM estimated that historical tobacco control policies achieved 28.6% (25.2% in men, 30.5% in women) of the potential reduction in U.S. lung cancer deaths had smoking had been eliminated entirely. The hypothetical adoption in 1975 of annual helical CT screening of all persons aged 55-74 with at least 30 pack-years of cigarette exposure to historical tobacco control would have yielded a proportion realized of 39.0% (42.0% in men, 33.3% in women). The adoption of annual screening would have prevented less than half as many lung cancer deaths as the elimination of cigarette smoking.

Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography screening for lung cancer in the United States

INTRODUCTION

A randomized trial has demonstrated that lung cancer screening reduces mortality. Identifying participant and program characteristics that influence the cost-effectiveness of screening will help translate trial results into benefits at the population level.

METHODS

Six U.S. cohorts (men and women aged 50, 60, or 70 years) were simulated in an existing patient-level lung cancer model. Smoking histories reflected observed U.S. patterns. We simulated lifetime histories of 500,000 identical individuals per cohort in each scenario. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained ($/QALY) were estimated for each program: computed tomography screening; stand-alone smoking cessation therapies (4-30% 1-year abstinence); and combined programs.

RESULTS

Annual screening of current and former smokers aged 50 to 74 years costs between $126,000 and $169,000/QALY (minimum 20 pack-years of smoking) or $110,000 and $166,000/QALY (40 pack-year minimum), when compared with no screening and assuming background quit rates. Screening was beneficial but had a higher cost per QALY when the model included radiation-induced lung cancers. If screen participation doubled background quit rates, the cost of annual screening (at age 50 years, 20 pack-year minimum) was below $75,000/QALY. If screen participation halved background quit rates, benefits from screening were nearly erased. If screening had no effect on quit rates, annual screening costs more but provided fewer QALYs than annual cessation therapies. Annual combined screening/cessation therapy programs at age 50 years costs $130,500 to $159,700/QALY, when compared with annual stand-alone cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of computed tomography screening will likely be strongly linked to achievable smoking cessation rates. Trials and further modeling should explore the consequences of relationships between smoking behaviors and screen participation.

Adopting helical CT screening for lung cancer: potential health consequences during a 15-year period

BACKGROUND

Simulation modeling can synthesize data from single-arm studies of lung cancer screening and tumor registries to investigate computed tomography (CT) screening. This study estimated changes in lung cancer outcomes through 2005, had chest CT screening been introduced in 1990.

METHODS

Hypothetical individuals with smoking histories representative of 6 US cohorts (white males and females aged 50, 60, and 70 years in 1990) were simulated in the Lung Cancer Policy Model, a comprehensive patient-level simulation model of lung cancer development, screening, and treatment. A no screening scenario corresponded to observed outcomes. We simulated 3 screening scenarios in current or former smokers with > or =20 pack-years as follows: 1-time screen in 1990; and annual, and twice-annually screenings beginning in 1990 and ending in 2005. Main outcomes were days of life between 1990 and 2005 and life expectancy in 1990 (estimated by simulating life histories past 2005).

RESULTS

All screening scenarios yielded reductions (compared with no screening) in lung cancer-specific mortality by 2005, with larger reductions predicted for more frequent screening. Compared with no screening, annual screening of ever-smokers with at least 20 pack-years of cigarette exposure provided ever-smokers with an additional 11 to 33 days of life by 2005, or an additional 3-10 weeks of (undiscounted) life expectancy. In sensitivity analyses, the largest effects on gains from annual screening were due to reductions in screening adherence and increased smoking cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

The adoption of CT screening, had it been available in 1990, might have resulted in a modest gain in life expectancy.

Balancing urgency, age and quality of life in organ allocation decisions--what would you do? A survey

PURPOSE

Explore public attitudes towards the trade-offs between justice and medical outcome inherent in organ allocation decisions.

BACKGROUND

The US Task Force on Organ Transplantation recommended that considerations of justice, autonomy and medical outcome be part of all organ allocation decisions. Justice in this context may be modeled as a function of three types of need, related to age, clinical urgency, and quality of life.

METHODS

A web-based survey was conducted in which respondents were asked to choose between two hypothetical patients who differed in clinical urgency (time to death <1 year), age, pretransplant and post-transplant quality of life, and life expectancy.

RESULTS

A pool of 1600 people were notified via email about the survey; 623 (39%) responded. Respondents preferred giving organs to younger people up to an age difference of <15.4 years (SD 18) and more clinically urgent people up to a difference in urgency of <2.54 months (SD 3). Priority varied with the quality of life of the worst-off patient and the relative status of the patients. If both had worse than average quality of life, respondents preferred the better-off patient. When both had better than average quality of life, they preferred the worse-off patient. In analysis according to age versus clinical urgency, the older the patient, the more urgency needed to receive priority. In quality of life versus clinical urgency, the better the control's quality of life, the more urgency the competing patient required. The worse the patient's post-transplant outcome, the more urgency needed to receive priority.

CONCLUSIONS

It appears that clinical urgency is only one of many factors influencing attitudes about allocation decisions and that respondents may invoke different principles of fairness depending the relative clinical status of patients.

Utilization of diagnostic medical imaging: comparison of radiologist referral versus same-specialty referral

PURPOSE

To retrospectively compare the frequency with which patients underwent diagnostic medical imaging procedures during episodes of outpatient medical care according to whether their physicians referred patients for imaging to themselves and/or physicians in their same specialty or to radiologists.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Institutional review board approval was not necessary for this HIPAA-compliant study. An insurance claims database from a large national employer-based health plan was obtained. Claims data from 1999-2003 were grouped into episodes of care for six conditions: cardiopulmonary disease, coronary and/or cardiac disease, extremity fracture, knee pain, intraabdominal malignancy, and stroke. For each condition, each referring physician's behavior was categorized as either "same-specialty referral" or "radiologist referral" on the basis of that physician's entire history of imaging referrals for the condition. The frequency with which patients underwent diagnostic medical imaging procedures during episodes of care was compared according to whether their physicians referred patients for imaging to themselves and/or same-specialty physicians or to radiologists. Rates were compared by using chi(2) tests, and logistic regression was used to compare utilization rates, with patient age and number of comorbidities as covariates.

RESULTS

For the conditions evaluated, physicians who referred patients to themselves or to other same-specialty physicians for diagnostic imaging used imaging between 1.12 and 2.29 times as often, per episode of care, as physicians who referred patients to radiologists (P < .005 for all comparisons). Adjusting for patient age and comorbidity, the likelihood of imaging was 1.196-3.228 times greater for patients cared forby same-specialty-referring physicians.

CONCLUSION

Same-specialty-referring physicians tend to utilize imaging more frequently than do physicians who refer their patients to radiologists. These results cannot be explained by differences in case mix (because analyses were performed within six specific conditions of interest), patient age, or comorbidity.

Coxibs versus combination NSAID and PPI therapy for chronic pain: an exploration of the risks, benefits, and costs

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review studies qualitatively to compare the risks (gastrointestinal [GI] and cardiovascular) and benefits (pain control) of cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors (coxibs) relative to an alternative therapy of a nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) combined with a proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) and explore circumstances when coxibs may be appropriate.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified through a search of MEDLINE (Ovid Technologies, 1985-November 2005; English language, clinical trial), PubMed (1985-November 2005; English language, clinical trial, humans), and the Cochrane Collaboration using the terms selective COX-2 inhibitors and coxibs, as well as the various chemical names for specific coxib agents. Studies that compared a coxib with a nonselective NSAID and provided data concerning our outcomes of interest were included and categorized by the outcome variable, as well as by the specific coxib studied.

RESULTS

The majority of the numerous studies that evaluated pain as an endpoint showed no difference between coxib and nonselective NSAID therapy. However, while limited, preliminary safety data regarding the effects of both classes on the upper and lower GI tract suggest coxib superiority. Although coxibs are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse events (CVEs) compared with placebo, this effect has not been conclusively shown compared with nonselective NSAIDs. Currently, coxib therapy is more expensive than combination therapy using a nonselective NSAID plus a PPI.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with combination therapy including a nonselective NSAID and PPI, coxibs provide equivalent pain control and may have a lower GI tract complication profile, but at an unknown increased risk of CVEs and a greater financial cost. Coxib therapy may be an appropriate treatment for chronic pain in select patients with higher risks of GI complications, lower risk of CVEs, and in whom greater cost is not a restraint.