Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond

Influence of long-distance climate teleconnection on seasonality of water temperature in the world's largest lake--Lake Baikal, Siberia

Large-scale climate change is superimposed on interacting patterns of climate variability that fluctuate on numerous temporal and spatial scales—elements of which, such as seasonal timing, may have important impacts on local and regional ecosystem forcing. Lake Baikal in Siberia is not only the world's largest and most biologically diverse lake, but it has exceptionally strong seasonal structure in ecosystem dynamics that may be dramatically affected by fluctuations in seasonal timing. We applied time-frequency analysis to a near-continuous, 58-year record of water temperature from Lake Baikal to examine how seasonality in the lake has fluctuated over the past half century and to infer underlying mechanisms. On decadal scales, the timing of seasonal onset strongly corresponds with deviation in the zonal wind intensity as described by length of day (LOD); on shorter scales, these temperature patterns shift in concert with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Importantly, the connection between ENSO and Lake Baikal is gated by the cool and warm periods of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Large-scale climatic phenomena affecting Siberia are apparent in Lake Baikal surface water temperature data, dynamics resulting from jet stream and storm track variability in central Asia and across the Northern Hemisphere.

Physiological flexibility and acclimation to food shortage in a heterothermic primate

As ecosystems undergo changes worldwide, physiological flexibility is likely to be an important adaptive response to increased climate instability. Extreme weather fluctuations impose energetical constraints such as unpredictable food shortage. We tested how grey mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus) could adjust their daily heterothermy and locomotor activity to these ‘energetic accidents’ with a food restriction experiment. The experimental design consisted of acute calorie restriction (2 weeks, 80% restriction) in the middle of winter, after a fattening season with low (11 weeks, 40% restriction) versus high (ad libitum) food availability. This design aimed at simulating the combined effects of the quality of the fattening season (acclimation effect) and a sudden, severe food shortage during the lean season. Hour of start and duration of torpor were the most flexible components of energy savings, increasing in response to the acute food shortage with facilitation by chronic restriction (acclimation effect). Modulations of locomotor activity did not support the hypothesis of energy savings, as total locomotor activity was not reduced. Nonetheless, acutely restricted individuals modified their temporal pattern of locomotor activity according to former food availability. We provide the first experimental evidence of different temporal levels of flexibility of energy-saving mechanisms in a heterotherm exposed to food shortage. The acclimation effect of past food scarcity suggests that heterothermic organisms are better able to respond to unpredicted food scarcity during the lean season. The flexible control of energy expenditure conferred by heterothermy may facilitate the plastic response of heterothermic species to more frequent climatic hazards.

Is the relationship between predator and prey abundances related to climate for lynx and snowshoe hares?

Context Predator dynamics may be related to prey abundance and influenced by environmental effects, such as climate. Predator–prey interactions may be represented by mechanistic models that comprise a deterministic skeleton with stochastic climatic forcing. Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate on predator–prey dynamics. The lynx and snowshoe hare predator–prey system in the Kluane region of the Yukon, Canada, is used as a case study. The specific hypothesis is that climate influences the relationship between lynx and hare abundance. Methods We evaluate 10 linear relationships between predator and prey abundance and effects of climate. We use data on lynx and snowshoe hare abundance over 21 years in the Yukon as the predator–prey system, and three alternative broad-scale climate indices: the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific North American (PNA) index and the North Pacific index (NPI). Key results There was more support, as assessed by Akaike weights (ωi = 0.600), evidence ratio (=4.73) and R2 (=0.77) for a model of predator (lynx) and prior prey (hare) abundance with an effect of prior climate (winter NAO) when combined in a multiplicative, rather than in an additive, manner. The results infer that climate changes the amplitude of the lynx cycle with lower predator (lynx) abundance with positive values of winter NAO for a given hare density. Conclusions The study provides evidence that predator–prey dynamics are related to climate in an interactive manner. The ecological mechanism for the interactive effect is not clear, and alternative hypotheses are proposed for future evaluation. Implications The study implies that changes in climate may alter predator–prey relationships.

Tipping points, thresholds and the keystone role of physiology in marine climate change research

The ongoing and future effects of global climate change on natural and human-managed ecosystems have led to a renewed interest in the concept of ecological thresholds or tipping points. While generalizations such as poleward range shifts serve as a useful heuristic framework to understand the overall ecological impacts of climate change, sophisticated approaches to management require spatially and temporally explicit predictions that move beyond these oversimplified models. Most approaches to studying ecological thresholds in marine ecosystems tend to focus on populations, or on non-linearities in physical drivers. Here we argue that many of the observed thresholds observed at community and ecosystem levels can potentially be explained as the product of non-linearities that occur at three scales: (a) the mechanisms by which individual organisms interact with their ambient habitat, (b) the non-linear relationship between organismal physiological performance and variables such as body temperature and (c) the indirect effects of physiological stress on species interactions such as competition and predation. We explore examples at each of these scales in detail and explain why a failure to consider these non-linearities - many of which can be counterintuitive - can lead to Type II errors (a failure to predict significant ecological responses to climate change). Specifically, we examine why ecological thresholds can occur well before concomitant thresholds in physical drivers are observed, i.e. how even small linear changes in the physical environment can lead to ecological tipping points. We advocate for an integrated framework that combines biophysical, ecological and physiological methods to generate hypotheses that can be tested using experimental manipulation as well as hindcasting and nowcasting of observed change, on a spatially and temporally explicit basis.

Climate effects on population fluctuations of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus

1. Climate change may have profound consequences for many organisms. We have studied fluctuations in a population of the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus during 31 years (1978-2008) in a river system in southern Norway in relation to both large-scale and local weather conditions occurring during the non-breeding season. 2. Multiple regression and partial least squares regression were used to model the growth rate of the population, accounting for population size in the previous year. 3. Population growth was influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean winter temperature, precipitation and timing of ice formation on the main lake in the river system in autumn. These variables explained 84% of the variation in population growth over the 31-year study period. 4. Local winter conditions played a prominent role in explaining the population fluctuations, which is plausible because the dipper depends on open water for foraging. In the study area, winters can be harsh and rivers and lakes may freeze and severely affect the subsequent population size of the dipper in spring. 5. The breeding population of the dipper does not seem yet to have reached a level where all possible territories in the area have been occupied, even after mild winters, and the estimated carrying capacity is also decidedly lower (66 breeding pairs) than the number of available territories. If the trend of milder winters continues, the population might increase in the future. However, strong climate variation is expected to continue in the future, and hence periods of rapid growth of the dipper population will probably be followed by severe declines.

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability

Background

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.

Methodology

Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.

Principal Findings

We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found.

Conclusions

A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

Dengue has become a major international public health problem due to increasing geographic distribution and a transition from epidemic transmission with long inter-epidemic intervals to endemic transmission with seasonal fluctuation. Seasonal and multi-annual cycles in dengue incidence vary over time and space. We performed wavelet analyses on time series of monthly notified dengue cases in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam, from January 1994 to June 2009. We observed a continuous annual mode of oscillation with a non-stationary 2–3-year multi-annual cycle. We used phase differences to describe the spatio-temporal patterns which suggest that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous with all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district, while the multi-annual wave of infection was moving towards Phan Thiet district. We also found a strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence. We provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in Northeastern China

BACKGROUND

The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China.

METHODS

We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997-2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission.

RESULTS

Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3-5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3-5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins

Background

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins.

Principal Findings

In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.

Conclusions

Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress

Predicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales.

Long- and short-term influence of environment on recruitment in a species with highly delayed maturity

Short-term effects of environmental perturbations on various life history traits are reasonably well documented in birds and mammals. But, in the present context of global climate change, there is a need to consider potential long-term effects of natal conditions to better understand and predict the consequences of these changes on population dynamics. The environmental conditions affecting offspring during their early development may determine their lifetime reproductive performance, and therefore the number of recruits produced by a cohort. In this study, we attempted to link recruitment to natal and recent (previous year) conditions in the long-lived black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) at Kerguelen Islands. The environmental variability was described using both climatic variables over breeding (sea surface temperature anomaly) and non-breeding grounds (Southern Oscillation index), and variables related to the colony (breeding success and colony size). Immature survival was linked to the breeding success of the colony in the year of birth, which was expected to reflect the average seasonal parental investment. At the cohort level, this initial mortality event may act as a selective filter shaping the number, and presumably the quality (breeding frequency, breeding success probability), of the individuals that recruit into the breeding population. The decision to start breeding was strongly structured by the age of the individuals and adjusted according to recent conditions. An effect of natal conditions was not detected on this parameter, supporting the selection hypothesis. Recruitment, as a whole, was thus influenced by a combination of long- and short-term environmental impacts. Our results highlight the complexity of the influence of environmental factors on such long-lived species, due to the time-lag (associated with a delayed maturity) between the impact of natal conditions on individuals and their repercussion on the breeding population.

Ageing in a variable habitat: environmental stress affects senescence in parasite resistance in St Kilda Soay sheep

Despite widespread empirical evidence for a general deterioration in the majority of traits with advancing age, it is unclear whether the progress of senescence is chronologically determined, or whether factors such as environmental conditions experienced over the lifespan are more important. We explored the relative importance of ‘chronological’ and ‘environmental’ measures of age to changes in parasite resistance across the lifespan of free-living Soay sheep. Our results show that individuals experience an increase in parasite burden, as indicated by gastrointestinal helminth faecal egg count (FEC) with chronological age. However, chronological age fails to fully explain changes in FEC because a measure of environmental age, cumulative environmental stress, predicts an additional increase in FEC once chronological age has been accounted for. Additionally, we show that in females age-specific changes are dependent upon the environmental conditions experienced across individuals' life histories: increases in FEC with age were greatest among individuals that had experienced the highest degree of stress. Our results illustrate that chronological age alone may not always correspond to biological age, particularly in variable environments. In these circumstances, measures of age that capture the cumulative stresses experienced by an individual may be useful for understanding the process of senescence.

Fecal chlorophyll describes the link between primary production and consumption in a terrestrial herbivore

Spatiotemporal variation in primary productivity is known to have strong and far-reaching effects on herbivore ecology, but this relationship is often studied indirectly at broad scales, in part due to the difficulty in measuring selection for green biomass by individual animals. In aquatic systems, the concentration of chlorophyll in herbivore feces has been used as a direct measure of the consumption of photosynthetic primary production, but this method has not been applied to terrestrial systems. We measured chlorophyll concentration in feces from elk (Cervus elaphus) experiencing large fluctuations in primary production in the winter to spring transition over three years. We compared temporal trends in fecal chlorophyll with trends in fecal nitrogen, grass chlorophyll, grass digestible nitrogen, and landscape-level primary productivity (as described by the normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI). We also directly examined the relationship between fecal chlorophyll and NDVI. Temporal trends in fecal chlorophyll were strong and well described by piecewise regression (adjusted coefficient of determination, r(2)a = 0.881-0.888), showing uniformly low concentrations throughout winter followed by an abrupt, rapid increase beginning on different Julian days (88, 91, or 110) each year. Changes in fecal chlorophyll closely matched the temporal trend in the chlorophyll and digestible nitrogen concentration of forage grasses collected directly from elk feeding sites. Fecal chlorophyll also tracked broad temporal patterns in fecal nitrogen and NDVI, but discrepancies between the indexes may highlight preferences or constraints on selectivity for green biomass in elk. Spatially and temporally matched NDVI and fecal chlorophyll estimates were uncorrelated until NDVI reached approximately half its seasonal range. Combined, these data describe important patterns in selection for nutritious, green biomass in a temperate herbivore that would be difficult to study without data on fecal chlorophyll. Fecal chlorophyll produced novel and precise descriptions of (and detected large interannual differences in) winter length, severity, and the rate of spring green-up, as they were experienced by a large, grazing herbivore. Measuring fecal chlorophyll provides a noninvasive, inexpensive, and direct approach to describe an important aspect of foraging ecology in terrestrial herbivores and may be particularly powerful for studying climate effects in seasonal environments.

From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?

The interdisciplinary fields of conservation physiology, macrophysiology, and mechanistic ecological forecasting have recently emerged as means of integrating detailed physiological responses to the broader questions of ecological and evolutionary responses to global climate change. Bridging the gap between large-scale records of weather and climate (as measured by remote sensing platforms, buoys and ground-based weather stations) and the physical world as experienced by organisms (niche-level measurements) requires a mechanistic understanding of how ;environmental signals' (parameters such as air, surface and water temperature, food availability, water flow) are translated into signals at the scale of the organism or cell (e.g. body temperature, food capture, hydrodynamic force, aerobic capacity). Predicting the impacts of how changing environments affect populations and ecosystems further mandates an understanding of how organisms ;filter' these signals via their physiological response (e.g. whether they respond to high or low frequencies, whether there is a time lag in response, etc.) and must be placed within the context of adult movement and the dispersal of larvae and gametes. Recent studies have shown that patterns of physiological stress in nature are far more complex in space and time than previously assumed and challenge the long-held paradigm that patterns of biogeographic distribution can be based on simple environmental gradients. An integrative, systems-based approach can provide an understanding of the roles of environmental and physiological variability in driving ecological responses and can offer considerable insight and predictive capacity to researchers, resource managers and policy makers involved in planning for the current and future effects of climate change.

Climate and acute/subacute paracoccidioidomycosis in a hyper-endemic area in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is Latin America's most prevalent systemic mycosis, carrying an important social burden. Its agent, Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, has rarely been identified in nature. Studies characterizing acute/subacute PCM incidence and their relationship with climate variables are not available. This work analysed a series of acute/subacute cases that occurred in the Botucatu area, São Paulo State, Brazil, from 1969 to 1999, as an outcome of weather variability.

METHODS

Stepwise regression of annual data was applied to model incidence, calculated based on 91 cases, from lagged variables: antecedent precipitation, air temperature, soil water storage, absolute and relative air humidity, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

RESULTS

Multiple regression analyses resulted in a model, which explains 49% of the incidence variance, taking into account the absolute air humidity in the year of exposure, soil water storage and SOI of the previous 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The correlations may reflect enhanced fungal growth after increase in soil water storage in the longer term and greater spore release with increase in absolute air humidity in the short term.

Climate and recruitment limitation of hosts: the dynamics of American cutaneous leishmaniasis seen through semi-mechanistic seasonal models

Diseases cycle as a response to endogenous and exogenous factors. For infectious diseases caused by vector-transmitted pathogens, the exogenous factors are commonly equated to climatic forces and the endogenous factors to the recruitment of new susceptible individuals. Mathematical models that explicitly (parametrically) consider both types of factor are, however, very rare. An approach is presented to model the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors parametrically, using a time series for American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) from Costa Rica. The seasonality of the disease is modelled using a seasonal autoregressive approach. The latter has the advantage of allowing the use of semi-mechanistic frameworks that consider infection clearance, while explicitly introducing the feedbacks produced by the transition between immune classes, as well as climatic forcing. It also uses a relatively small number of degrees of freedom (compared with the numbers involved in semi-parametric approaches), making it useful for relatively short time series and series with abrupt changes. Compared with non-mechanistic models built for prediction purposes, this way of modelling seems to increase the likelihood of the data being explained by a plausible mechanism. The approach used in this study of ACL could be useful in investigating the changes that occur in other diseases that show non-stationary seasonal dynamics, and can be easily adapted to model the dynamics of other infectious diseases that show trends or breakpoints. The present results support the view that humans affected by ACL are mostly incidental hosts, and indicate that, at the population level, there is a delay of about 5 months between human infection with the causative parasites and the onset of clinical symptoms. They encourage the development of surveillance systems, for monitoring the prevalence of infection in the sandflies that act as vectors, and the use of sentinel hosts, so that control measures can be rapidly applied or strengthened before a serious outbreak occurs. The development of more accurate mathematical models of ACL will depend largely on advances in the ecology of the disease and of all the hosts of the causative parasites.

Divergent patterns of impact of environmental conditions on life history traits in two populations of a long-distance migratory bird

Some areas have experienced recent dramatic warming due to climate change, while others have shown no change at all, or even recent cooling. We predicted that patterns of selection on life history would differ between southern and northern European populations of a long-distance migratory bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, because global patterns of weather as reflected by large-scale weather phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have different effects on environmental conditions in different parts of the world frequented during the annual cycle. We investigated relationships between mean arrival date, dispersal rate and yearling survival rate among years, using two long-term population studies in Spain and Denmark. We found evidence of a difference in the effects of normalized difference vegetation index in North and West Africa on mean arrival date of male barn swallows, with the effect differing significantly between populations. Second, there was a significant interaction between ENSO and population on dispersal rate, showing that conditions in Africa during winter differentially affected dispersal in the two populations. Finally, the NAO index in winter had an effect on yearling survival that differed between populations. These findings highlight the divergent patterns of response to climate change among populations, and they suggest that climate change can differentially affect important life history traits with potential implications for maintenance of viable populations and gene flow among populations.

Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

Linking climate change to lemming cycles

The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries, and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem. Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases, and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators. But although predator-rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles, the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems. Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large-scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change.

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Hierarchical path analysis of deer responses to direct and indirect effects of climate in northern forest

A problem in climate studies has been on how to treat causal chains of explanations and both direct and indirect effects. Mammals in strongly seasonal environments of the boreal forest typically lose condition during winter and gain mass (and reproduce) during the summer season when biomass and plant quality peak. Mass decay of large herbivores during winter is due to direct effects of winter weather, such as increased costs of movement, thermoregulation and reduced access to food when snow is deep. Deer condition during summer is thought to be affected mainly indirectly by weather through plants. High spring temperature speeds up plant development, and deep snow can delay phenology in early summer. Current statistical modelling does not take into account these mechanistic pathways. We used hierarchical Bayes modelling to more mechanistically link global climate, local weather and plant phenology to autumn body mass of red deer in Norway. Red deer were much more affected indirectly through trophic interactions. No solid evidence of direct effects of snow depth was found on autumn body mass. We discuss the implications of our results relative to our ability to predict effects of global change on large mammalian herbivores in the boreal forest.

Interhemispheric comparison of recruitment to intertidal communities: pattern persistence and scales of variation

Recruitment variation can be a major source of fluctuation in populations and communities, making it difficult to generalize results. Determining the scales of variation and whether spatial patterns in the supply of individuals are persistent over time can provide insight into spatial generality and the application of conservation and metacommunity models. We examined these issues using eight-year-long data sets of monthly recruitment of intertidal mussels (Mytilus spp., Perumytilus purpuratus, Semimytilus algosus, Brachidontes granulata) and barnacles (Balanus glandula, Chthamalus dalli, Jehlius cirratus, Notochthamalus scabrosus) at sites spanning > 900 km along the coasts of Oregon-northern California (OR-NCA, 45.47-39.43 degrees N) and central Chile (CC, 29.5-34.65 degrees S). We evaluated four general "null" hypotheses: that despite different phylogenies and great spatial separation of these taxa, their similar life history strategies and environmental settings lead to similar patterns of recruitment (1) between hemispheres, (2) in time, (3) in space, and (4) at larger and smaller spatial scales. Hypothesis 1 was rejected: along the OR-NCA coast, rates of recruitment were between two and three orders of magnitude higher, and patterns of seasonality were generally stronger and more coherent across space and time than along CC. Surprisingly, however, further analysis revealed regularities in both time and space for all species, supporting hypotheses 2 and 3. Temporal decorrelation scales were 1-3 months, and characteristic spatial scales of recruitment were approximately 250 km. Contrary to hypothesis 4, for the ecologically dominant species in both hemispheres, recruitment was remarkably persistent at larger mesoscales (kilometers) but was highly stochastic at smaller microscales (meters). Across species, increased recruitment variation at large scales was positively associated with increased persistence. Our results have several implications. Although the two regions span distinct latitudinal ranges, potential forcing processes behind these patterns include similar large-scale climates and topographically locked hydrographic features, such as upwelling. Further, spatial persistence of the recruitment patterns of most species at the mesoscale supports the view that marine protected areas can be powerful conservation and management tools. Finally, persistent and yet contrasting spatial patterns of recruitment among competing species suggest that recent metacommunity models might provide useful representations of the mechanisms involved in species coexistence.

Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets

Background

Malaria is an important public-health problem in the archipelago of Vanuatu and climate has been hypothesized as important influence on transmission risk. Beginning in 1988, a major intervention using insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) was implemented in the country in an attempt to reduce Plasmodium transmission. To date, no study has addressed the impact of ITN intervention in Vanuatu, how it may have modified the burden of disease, and whether there were any changes in malaria incidence that might be related to climatic drivers.

Methods and findings

Monthly time series (January 1983 through December 1999) of confirmed Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in the archipelago were analysed. During this 17 year period, malaria dynamics underwent a major regime shift around May 1991, following the introduction of bed nets as a control strategy in the country. By February of 1994 disease incidence from both parasites was reduced by at least 50%, when at most 20% of the population at risk was covered by ITNs. Seasonal cycles, as expected, were strongly correlated with temperature patterns, while inter-annual cycles were associated with changes in precipitation. Following the bed net intervention, the influence of environmental drivers of malaria dynamics was reduced by 30–80% for climatic forces, and 33–54% for other factors. A time lag of about five months was observed for the qualitative change ("regime shift") between the two parasites, the change occurring first for P. falciparum. The latter might be explained by interspecific interactions between the two parasites within the human hosts and their distinct biology, since P. vivax can relapse after a primary infection.

Conclusion

The Vanuatu ITN programme represents an excellent example of implementing an infectious disease control programme. The distribution was undertaken to cover a large, local proportion (~80%) of people in villages where malaria was present. The successful coverage was possible because of the strategy for distribution of ITNs by prioritizing the free distribution to groups with restricted means for their acquisition, making the access to this resource equitable across the population. These results emphasize the need to implement infectious disease control programmes focusing on the most vulnerable populations.

Complex interplays among population dynamics, environmental forcing, and exploitation in fisheries

The patterns of variations in fisheries time series are known to result from a complex combination of species and fisheries dynamics all coupled with environmental forcing (including climate, trophic interactions, etc.). Disentangling the relative effects of these factors has been a major goal of fisheries science for both conceptual and management reasons. By examining the variability of 169 tuna and billfish time series of catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) throughout the Atlantic as well as their linkage to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that the importance of these factors differed according to the spatial scale. At the scale of the entire Atlantic the patterns of variations are primarily spatially structured, whereas at a more regional scale the patterns of variations were primarily related to the fishing gear. Furthermore, the NAO appeared to also structure the patterns of variations of tuna time series, especially over the North Atlantic. We conclude that the patterns of variations in fisheries time series of tuna and billfish only poorly reflect the underlying dynamics of these fish populations; they appear to be shaped by several successive embedded processes, each interacting with each other. Our results emphasize the necessity for scientific data when investigating the population dynamics of large pelagic fishes, because CPUE fluctuations are not directly attributable to change in species' abundance.

Northeast Arctic cod population persistence in the Lofoten-Barents Sea system under fishing

Population growth, and hence the population's persistence, is affected by several factors such as climate, species interaction, and harvesting pressure. Proper resource management requires an understanding of these factors. We apply techniques based upon age-structured population matrices to analyze estimated stock sizes derived from annual bottom trawl sampling in the winter feeding area of northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua L.) from 1981 to 2003. We run generalized additive models to explain population growth rate by different explanatory variables. Cod population growth was found to be positively related to the abundance of capelin (Mallotus villosus Miller), negatively related to the number of cannibalistic cod with a two-year lag, and marginally positively related to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). This model remains true independently from the population status (i.e., fished or non-fished). Capelin abundance is the main variable that to some degree can be adjusted in order to maintain the population size at a given level of cod harvesting. Our results point to the importance of managing conjointly cod and capelin stocks.

Mushroom fruiting and climate change

Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximately 34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Niño springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.

Demographic analysis of a declining pika Ochotona collaris population: linking survival to broad-scale climate patterns via spring snowmelt patterns

1. Demographic analysis is essential in order to determine which factors, such as survival, fertility and other life-history characteristics, have the greatest influence on a population's rate of growth (lambda). 2. We used life-table response experiments (LTREs) to assess the relative importance of survival and fertility rates for an alpine lagomorph, the collared pika Ochotona collaris, using 12 years (1995-2006) of census data. The LTRE analysis was repeated for each of three subpopulations within the main study site that were defined by aspect (east, west and south). 3. Across the entire study site, the survival and fertility of adults contributed 35.6 and 43.5%, respectively, to the variance observed in the projected population growth rate, V(lambda), whereas juvenile survival contributed 20.9%. Adult survival and fertility contributed approximately equal amounts for each subpopulation when considered separately, although their rank order varied spatially. 4. Adult survival across the entire site was positively correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with a time lag of 1 year, and was uncorrelated to adult density. The PDO was negatively correlated to the timing of spring snowmelt at our site, implicating the importance of earlier spring conditions and plant phenology on the subsequent winter survival of adults and therefore, population growth. 5. When subpopulations were analysed separately, survivals and fertilities were variously correlated to lagged PDO and adult densities, but the patterns varied spatially. Therefore, the mechanisms underlying V(lambda) can vary substantially over relatively short distances.

Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks

In central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the main host for the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it is known that gerbil densities need to exceed a threshold level for plague to persist, synchrony in gerbil abundance across large geographical areas is likely to be a condition for plague outbreaks at similar large scales. Here, we substantiate this proposition through autoregressive modelling involving the normalized differentiated vegetation index as a forcing covariate. Based upon predicted climate changes, our study suggests that during the next century, plague epizootics may become more frequent in central Asia.