A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

MELD score versus conventional UNOS status in predicting short-term mortality after liver transplantation*

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) provides a score able to predict short-term mortality in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). In the early 2002, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has proposed to replace the conventional statuses 3, 2B, and 2A with a modified MELD score. However, the accuracy of the MELD model to predict post-transplantation outcome is fairly elusive. In the present study we investigated the predictive value of the MELD score for short-term patient and graft mortality in comparison with conventional UNOS status. Sixty-nine patients listed at UNOS status 3 (n = 5), 2B (n = 55) or 2A (n = 9) who underwent LT were enrolled according to strict criteria. No donor-related parameters affected 3-month patient survival. Through univariate Cox regression, pretransplantation international normalized ratio (P = 0.049) and activated partial thromboplastin time (P = 0.032) were significantly associated with 3-month patient survival, although not in the subsequent multivariate analysis. The overall MELD score was 17 +/- 6.63 (median: 16, range: 4-34), increasing from UNOS Status 3 to 2A (r(2) = 0.171, P = 0.0001). No significant difference occurred in the median MELD score between patients who underwent a second LT and those who did not (P =0.458). The inter-rate agreement between UNOS status and MELD score after categorization for clinical urgency showed a fair agreement (kappa = 0.244). The 3-month patient and graft mortality was 15.94% and 20.29% respectively. The concordance statistic did not find significance between UNOS status and MELD score for 3-month patient (P = 0.283) or graft mortality (P = 0.957), although the MELD score revealed a major sensitivity for short-term patient mortality (0.637; 95%CI: 0.513-0.75). These findings suggest the need to implement MELD model accuracy for both inter-rate agreement with UNOS Status and patient outcome.

Serum sodium predicts mortality in patients listed for liver transplantation

With the implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), refractory ascites, a known predictor of mortality in cirrhosis, was removed as a criterion for liver allocation. Because ascites is associated with low serum sodium, we evaluated serum sodium as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhosis who were listed for liver transplantation and whether the addition of serum sodium to MELD was superior to MELD alone. This is a single-center retrospective cohort of all adult patients with cirrhosis listed for transplantation from February 27, 2002, to December 26, 2003. Listing laboratories were those nearest the listing date +/-2 months. Of the 513 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 341 were still listed, while 172 were removed from the list (105 for transplantation, 56 for death, 11 for other reasons). The median serum sodium and MELD scores were 137 mEq/L (range, 110-155) and 15 (range, 6-51), respectively, at listing. Median follow-up was 201 (range, 1-662) days. The risk of death with serum sodium <126 mEq/L at listing or while listed was increased, with hazard ratios of 7.8 (P < .001) and 6.3 (P < .001), respectively, and the association was independent of MELD. The c-statistics of receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting mortality at 3 months based upon listing MELD with and without listing serum sodium were 0.883 and 0.897, respectively, and at 6 months were 0.871 and 0.905, respectively. In conclusion, serum sodium <126 mEq/L at listing or while listed for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Addition of serum sodium to MELD increases the ability to predict 3- and 6-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

Child-Turcotte-Pugh versus MELD score as a predictor of outcome after elective and emergent surgery in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients who present for elective and emergent surgery pose a formidable challenge for the surgeon because of the high reported morbidity and mortality. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score previously has been used to evaluate preoperative severity of liver dysfunction and to predict postoperative outcome. Recently, a more objective scoring classification, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), has been shown to predict accurately the 3-month mortality for cirrhotic patients awaiting transplantation. We sought to compare the CTP and MELD scores in predicting outcomes in cirrhotic patients undergoing surgical procedures requiring general anesthesia.

METHODS

During the study period, 40 patients with a history of cirrhosis who required elective (E) or emergent (EM) surgical procedures under general anesthesia were reviewed (E = 24, EM = 16). The preoperative CTP and MELD scores were calculated and patient short- (30-day) and long-term (3-month) outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference in the 1-month and 3-month mortality rates between the emergent and elective groups (EM group: 1 mo = 19%, 3 mo = 44%; E group: 1 mo = 17%, 3 mo = 21%, P <0.05). There was good correlation between the CP and MELD scores, which was greater in the emergent groups as compared with the elective group (EM: r = 0.81; E: r = 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that cirrhotic patients who undergo surgery under general anesthesia have an extremely high 1- and 3-month mortality rate that progressively increases with severity of preoperative liver dysfunction. Additionally, the MELD score correlates well with the CTP score, providing a more objective predictor of postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing surgery.

Value of albumin dialysis therapy in severe liver insufficiency

A blood purification system, molecular adsorbents re-circulating system (MARS), is based on the removal of both protein-bound and water-soluble substances and toxins in the liver. We treated a total of 88 patients within 2 years. Of these patients, 45 had acute liver failure (ALF), 31 had acute decompensation of chronic liver disease, eight had graft failure and four had miscellaneous conditions. Of the patients with ALF, 80% survived; in 23 patients their own liver recovered and 13 patients underwent successful transplantation. Only 23% of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure survived. Most of them were not considered for transplantation due to their having liver failure from alcoholism and from not abstaining from drinking. MARS is a promising therapy for ALF, allowing the patient's own liver to recover or allowing enough time to find a liver graft. Best results were achieved in patients who had been intoxicated with a lethal dose of toxin. On the other hand, we did not observe much benefit in patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure (AcoChr) who did not undergo liver transplantation.

Binding of bilirubin and bromosulphthalein to albumin: implications for understanding the pathophysiology of liver failure and its management

The binding/transporting functions of albumin provide the rationale for using albumin dialysis (e.g., molecular adsorbents recirculating system [MARS]) in liver failure. This study investigates these properties in vitro, validating the findings in vivo. In vitro bromosulphthalein (BSP) and bilirubin-spiked plasma were dialyzed against albumin and sampled. In vivo serum biochemistry was analyzed in: 7 MARS-treated liver failure patients; 98 MARS-treated patients from the MARS Registry; and 8 patients receiving albumin infusion. In vitro BSP concentrations did not equilibrate, but the molar ratio of BSP to albumin (C(BSP)/C(alb)) did, with no subsequent transmembrane transport, suggesting that the C(BSP)/C(alb) gradient (rather than simple diffusion) drives BSP transport. Bilirubin was transported similarly. In vivo serum bilirubin reduction during MARS sessions (n = 26) correlated with pre-treatment bilirubin (r = 0.42), but better (r = 0.85) with pre-treatment molar ratio of bilirubin to albumin (C(bilirubin)/C(alb)). The strongest correlation was between C(bilirubin)/C(alb) reduction and pre-treatment C(bilirubin)/C(alb) (r = 0.9). A similar pattern was observed in the MARS Registry patients. After albumin infusion (n = 8), both serum albumin and bilirubin increased, while C(bilirubin)/C(alb) remained unchanged. C(bilirubin)/C(alb) appears to be important in albumin dialysis, and generally in liver disease patients, reinforcing the importance of the toxin-binding functions of albumin in liver disease.

Utility of preoperative scores for predicting morbidity after cholecystectomy in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk for cholelithiasis but also have an increased risk for morbidity and mortality after cholecystectomy. Current preoperative assessment of surgical risk is imprecise. Our aims were to identify preoperative factors that would accurately predict the risk for cholecystectomy in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Preoperative clinical or biochemical parameters were determined for 33 patients with cirrhosis and 31 age- and sex-matched patients without cirrhosis. The use of these parameters and of the Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores as preoperative predictors of outcome after surgery were assessed.

RESULTS

There were 2 deaths, both in cirrhotic patients. The overall risk for morbidity or mortality was increased in cirrhotic patients compared with controls. Postoperative morbidity was significantly associated with preoperative increases of international normalized ratio >1.2, bilirubin >1.0 mg/dL, creatinine >1.4 mg/dL, and a decreased platelet count <150 x 10(3) /mL. The MELD and Child-Pugh scores accurately predicted postoperative morbidity, with an area under the curve of 0.938 and 0.839, respectively. A preoperative MELD score of > or =8 had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 77% for predicting postoperative morbidity. Persons with a MELD score of > or =8 had increased 30- and 90-day global charges and increased blood product usage.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative biochemical parameters, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, platelets, and creatinine can predict increased morbidity in cirrhotic patients. A MELD score of > or =8 identifies a group at high risk for postoperative morbidity after cholecystectomy.

Correlation Between Portal/Hepatic Vein Gradient and Response to Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation in Refractory Ascites

PURPOSE

Transjugular portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation is widely used in the treatment of patients with refractory ascites caused by portal hypertension. Although it is well-established that an optimal portosystemic gradient (PSG) to prevent recurrent variceal bleeding should be lower than 12 mm Hg, there are no clear data on the correlation between the post-TIPS portal/hepatic vein gradient (PHG) and control of ascites. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether there was any correlation between PHG and control of ascites after TIPS creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Portal/hepatic vein gradients before and after TIPS creation were studied in 28 patients who underwent TIPS creation. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine whether the portal/hepatic vein gradient independently predicted response to TIPS. Patients were considered responders if ascites disappeared or there was no further need for paracentesis. Patients were considered nonresponders if they required repeat paracentesis one or more months after TIPS creation.

RESULTS

Among patients who experienced a response, the mean pre-TIPS PHG was significantly higher than that in those who did not respond (20.9 mm Hg +/- 5.1 vs 15 mm Hg +/- 3.4; P = .002). A higher pre-TIPS PHG was predictive of better response independent of severity of liver disease and serum creatinine level (odds ratio, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.23-4.9; P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

If the findings established in this study are confirmed in prospective long-term studies, a pre-TIPS PHG measurement can be a useful tool in helping clinicians assess the potential benefit of TIPS in refractory ascites.

Expanded criteria donor grafts for deceased donor liver transplantation under the MELD system: a decision analysis

Expanded criteria donor (ECD) liver grafts have a higher likelihood of primary graft failure (PGF) compared with standard criteria donor (SCD) grafts. Given a choice between an available ECD graft versus waiting for an SCD graft that may not always become available, what should liver transplant candidates do? The study's aim was to estimate 1-year survival comparing immediate ECD liver grafting with waiting for an SCD organ. Using UNOS data, published literature estimates, and expert opinion, we constructed a Markov decision analytic model to estimate survival while waiting for an SCD transplant and survival with immediate ECD transplant. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying model parameters individually and simultaneously with a second-order Monte Carlo simulation. For all patients with MELD scores >20, survival was higher with immediate ECD transplant despite the additional increased risk for PGF. Survival was better with an immediate ECD transplant unless the probability of PGF exceeded 23%, 72%, and 88% for recipients with MELD scores of 11-20, 21-25, and 26-30 respectively. For patients with MELD scores >30, the survival benefit with the immediate ECD strategy persisted at even higher rates of PGF. In conclusion, our results suggest that, despite the higher risk for PGF, transplantation with an available ECD graft should be preferred over waiting for an SCD organ for patients with advanced MELD scores. At less advanced MELD scores, the survival benefit depends on the risk of PGF associated with the ECD organ.

Determination of the optimal model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been a prevailing system to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. An "exceptional" MELD score of 20 and 24 points is assigned for stage T1 and T2 patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), respectively. However, this strategy is based on scarce data and the optimal score for these patients remains uncertain. We investigated 238 patients with small HCC who were candidates for liver transplantation and underwent arterial chemoembolization or percutaneous injection therapy using acetic acid or ethanol. Tumor stage (P = .001) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class (P < .001) were independent risk factors predicting tumor progression or death in survival analysis. The risk of disease progression in HCC patients stratified by tumor stage was mapped and equated with the risk of mortality of 456 cirrhotic patients without HCC. The 6- and 12-month rates of disease progression were 4% and 6%, respectively, for stage T1 HCC patients (n = 50; mean MELD: 9.5). These rates were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 8-12 at the corresponding time period (7.1% and 11.3%, respectively; n = 141). For stage T2 patients (n = 188; mean MELD: 9.3), the corresponding rates were 5.3% and 13.8%, respectively, which were close to and no higher than the mortality rate in MELD category 10-14 (9.0% and 13.9%, respectively, n = 166). In conclusion, the risk of disease progression is quite low for selected HCC patients undergoing loco-regional therapy. A lower MELD score may be suggested to be equivalent to the risk of short- and mid-term mortality in the cirrhosis group.

Radiofrequency ablation of small hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

Determine the histologic response-rate (complete versus partial tumor extinction) after single radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arising in cirrhosis. Investigate possible predictors of response and assess efficacy and safety of RFA as a bridge to liver transplantation (OLT).

BACKGROUND

RFA has become the elective treatment of local control of HCC, although histologic data supporting radiologic assessment of response are rare and prospective studies are lacking. Prognostic impact of repeated RFA for HCC persistence is also undetermined.

METHODS

Percentage of RFA-induced necrosis and tumor persistence-rate at various intervals from treatment was studied in 60 HCC (median: 3 cm; Milan-Criteria IN: 80%) isolated in 50 consecutive cirrhotic patients undergoing OLT. Single-session RFA was the only treatment planned before OLT. Histologic response determined on explanted livers was related to 28 variables and to pre-OLT CT scan.

RESULTS

Mean interval RFA-->OLT was 9.5 months. Post-RFA complete response rate was 55%, rising to 63% for HCC </=3 cm. Tumor size was the only prognostic factor significantly related to response (P = 0.007). Tumor satellites and/or new HCC foci (56 nodules) were unaffected by RFA and significantly correlated with HCC >3 cm (P = 0.05). Post-RFA tumor persistence probability increased with time (12 months: 59%; 18 months: 70%). Radiologic response rate was 70%, not significantly different from histology. Major post-RFA morbidity was 8%. No mortality, Child deterioration, patient withdrawal because of tumor progression was observed. Post-OLT 3-year patient/graft survival was 83%.

CONCLUSIONS

RFA is a safe and effective treatment of small HCC in cirrhotics awaiting OLT, although tumor size (>3 cm) and time from treatment (>1 year) predict a high risk of tumor persistence in the targeted nodule. RFA should not be considered an independent therapy for HCC.

Potential predictive value of the MELD score for short-term mortality after liver transplantation

In the last years, a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was suggested as a disease severity score for patients with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation. In the early 2002, United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has proposed to replace the current status 2A, 2B, and 3 by a modified version of the original MELD score based upon patient risk for 3-month mortality on the waiting list. In this study UNOS status and MELD score were evaluated retrospectively for postoperative 3-month mortality in patients who underwent liver transplantation from 2000 to 2001. Liver recipients were stratified for UNOS status 2A, 2B, and 3, and the corresponding MELD score was calculated for each patient. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for both conventional UNOS status and MELD score by fitting patient deaths within 3 months after liver transplantation. The MELD score revealed a better prediction rate for 3-month mortality after the first LT than conventional UNOS status, although no statistical significance was evident by ROC curve comparison. This preliminary study seems to suggest a potentially better predictive rate for the MELD score than conventional UNOS status concerning short-term mortality after liver transplantation.

Preoperative and perioperative predictors of the need for renal replacement therapy after orthotopic liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Acute renal failure developing after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLTx) requiring renal replacement heralds a poor prognosis. Our center has previously reported a 1-year survival of only 41.8%. We undertook this study to determine whether we could identify preoperative and perioperative factors that would predict which patients are at risk.

METHODS

OLTxs performed between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001, were included in our retrospective database review. Combined kidney-liver transplants or patients with preoperative renal replacement therapy (RRT) were excluded. A total of 724 OLTxs were studied, which were divided into group I: no RRT, n=637; group II: hemodialysis only post-OLTx, n=17; and group III: continuous RRT post-OLTx, n=70. Univariate and stepwise logistic multivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Preoperative serum creatinine greater than 1.9 mg/dL (odds ratio [OR] 3.57), preoperative blood urea nitrogen greater than 27 mg/dL (OR 2.68), intensive care unit stay more than 3 days (OR 10.23), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score greater than 21 (OR 2.5) were significant. A clinical prediction model was constructed: probability of requiring dialysis posttransplant=(-2.4586+1.2726 [creatinine >1.9] + 0.9858 [blood urea nitrogen >27] + 0.4574 [Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >21] + 1.1625 [intensive care unit days >3]). A clinical prediction rule for patients with a score greater than 0.12 was applied to OLTx recipients who underwent transplantation in 2002. A total of 15 of 20 patients who received RRT and 111 of 121 who did not were correctly classified with the model.

CONCLUSIONS

This model allowed us to identify patients at high risk for developing the need for RRT postoperatively. Strategies for these patients to prevent or ameliorate acute renal failure and reduce the need for RRT postoperatively are needed.

Predicting survival among patients listed for liver transplantation: an assessment of serial MELD measurements

We examined whether consideration of repeated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) measurements for patients listed for liver transplantation improves predictive value beyond current MELD alone. Clinical data were extracted for all adult primary liver transplantation candidates from our institution who were listed with the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) between 1990 and 1999. Serum creatinine, bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR) were obtained from an institutional laboratory database. Cox models were constructed using current MELD, change in MELD (Delta), and number of MELD scores to predict survival on the waiting list. Eight hundred and sixty-one patients met inclusion criteria, 639 underwent transplantation, and 80 died while waiting. A one-unit increment in current MELD imparted significant hazard ratios ranging from 1.12 to 1.19 in all models. Delta MELD was predictive of mortality univariately, but less predictive when current MELD was included, and not predictive when considered with both current and number of MELD scores. Overall, current MELD is the single most important determinant of mortality risk on the waiting list. Delta MELD is predictive of death only within 4 d of the event; however, part of this correlates with the dying process itself, thus limiting Delta MELD's utility in survival prediction models.

Clinical value of increased serum creatinine concentration as predictor of short-term outcome in decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to assess whether serum creatinine concentration alone or associated with other biological parameters was an independent predictor of short-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 212 consecutive episodes of decompensated cirrhosis in patients admitted to the hospital between January 1999 and December 2001 were reviewed retrospectively. Depending on a serum creatinine concentration equal to or greater than 1.5 mg/dL at the time of admission, patients were divided into decompensated cirrhosis with renal failure (101 episodes in 59 patients, aged 69.8 +/- 10 years) and without renal failure (111 episodes in 61 patients, aged 64.5 +/- 13 years). Outcome (alive, death) during the episode of decompensation of liver disease and outcome at 90 days after admission were assessed.

RESULTS

Differences in the frequency of variables according to outcome in the overall episodes of decompensated cirrhosis with and without renal failure showed significant differences between patients who died and those who were alive both at hospital discharge and at 90 days in serum bilirubin, Child-Pugh score, MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score, and serum creatinine levels. In the multivariate analysis, serum creatinine was not an independent predictor of outcome. The prediction accuracy according to the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve was greater for the MELD scale than for serum creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum creatinine concentration is a parameter that should be included in the prognostic assessment of patients with decompensated cirrhosis, but should be combined with other specific parameters of liver function, such as bilirubin, albumin, and the international normalized ratio (INR) for prothrombin time.

Efficacy of MELD score in predicting survival after liver retransplantation

OBJECTIVE

We retrospectively investigated the efficacy of the MELD score to predict the outcome of liver retransplantation and serve as selection criteria.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 1987 to 2003, the 765 liver transplantations included 87 patients (11.4%) who received a second graft. In addition to graft and patient survivals, ROC curves were used to establish the best MELD score to select cases with poor outcomes.

RESULTS

Indications for retransplantation were: 38 (43.7%) surgical complications; 12 (13.8%) chronic rejections; 15 (17.2%) disease recurrences; and 22 (15.3%) primary graft nonfunction. Overall patient survivals at 1, 3, and 5 years were 62.4%, 50.7%, and 49.1%, respectively. A MELD score of 25, calculated by ROC curves, significantly predicted graft and patient survival (44.2% vs 22.5%, P < .05 and 58.6% vs 27.8%, P < .005). During the first 30 postoperative days, patients with a MELD higher than 25 lost the second graft in 48% of cases compared to 16% in the other group (P < .005). Patients retransplanted for primary graft nonfunction showed significant lower 5-year survival rates than those for other indications (28.6% vs 54.5%, P < .05) and higher mean MELD score (30.7 vs 21.9, P < .05).

CONCLUSION

A MELD score of 25 is a valid cut-off to predict the outcome of retransplantations, it may be useful to select patients among those who require a second graft. Cases with primary graft nonfunction displayed lower survival, because of their compromised clinical status as evidenced by their high MELD scores.

When is a patient too well and when is a patient too sick for a liver transplant?

1. Liver transplantation is currently offered as a therapeutic option for patients with a wide range of end-stage liver diseases. 2. Conventional wisdom suggests that patients who receive a liver transplant have a greater expected lifetime when compared to comparable candidates on the waiting list. 3. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system is an excellent predictor of mortality on the waiting list and also predicts mortality after liver transplantation. 4. The combination of waiting list mortality risk and posttransplant mortality risk assessed by MELD and other factors can be used to estimate whether candidates are likely to derive a survival benefit from a liver transplant.

Persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis and low MELD scores who are at high risk for early death

Despite the adoption of "sickest first" liver transplantation, pretransplant death remains common, and many early deaths occur despite initially low Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. From 1997-2003, we studied 507 cirrhotic United States veterans referred for consideration of liver transplantation to identify additional predictors of early mortality. Most of the patients were male (98%) with cirrhosis caused by hepatitis C and/or alcohol (88%). Data for 296 patients referred prior to February 27, 2002 (training group), were analyzed; findings were validated in 211 patients referred subsequently (validation group). In the training group, 61 patients (21%) died within 180 days without transplantation; their median initial MELD score was 21. MELD score, persistent ascites, and low serum sodium (<135 meq/L) were independent predictors of early mortality. In patients with a MELD score of less than 21, only low serum sodium and persistent ascites were independent predictors of mortality; for MELD scores above 21, only MELD was independently predictive. Prognostic significance of persistent ascites and low serum sodium for low MELD score patients was confirmed in the validation group. Risk varied continuously with worsening hyponatremia. Modifying MELD, by including points for persistent ascites and low serum sodium, improved prediction of early pretransplant mortality in low MELD score patients. In conclusion, persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis with high mortality risk despite low MELD scores. Ascites, hyponatremia, and other findings indicative of hemodynamic decompensation merit further prospective study as prognostic indicators in patients awaiting liver transplantation, and should be considered in setting minimal listing criteria.

Can inclusion of serum creatinine values improve the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and challenge the prognostic yield of the model for end-stage liver disease score in the short-term prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients?

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a useful tool to assess prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients. However, its short-term prognostic superiority over the traditional Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score has not been definitely confirmed. The creatinine serum level is an important predictor of survival in patients with liver cirrhosis.

AIMS

To evaluate and compare the short-term prognostic accuracy of the CTP, the creatinine-modified CTP, and the MELD scores in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

CTP, creatinine-modified CTP, and MELD scores were calculated in a cohort of 145 cirrhotic patients. The creatinine-modified CTP was calculated as follows: we assessed the mean creatinine serum level and standard deviation (SD) of the 145 study patients, then assigned a score of 1 to patients with creatinine serum levels < or = to the mean, a score of 2 to patients with creatinine levels between the mean and the mean+1 SD, and a score of 3 to patients with creatinine levels above the mean+1 SD. The creatinine-modified CTP was then calculated by simply adding each patients' creatinine score to their traditional CTP scores. We calculated and compared the accuracy (c-index) of the three parameters in predicting 3-month survival.

RESULTS

The creatinine-modified CTP score showed better prognostic accuracy as compared with the traditional CTP (P=0.049). However, the MELD score proved to be better at defining patients' prognosis in the short-term as compared with both the traditional CTP score (P=0.012) and the creatinine-modified CTP (P=0.047). The excellent short-term prognostic accuracy of the MELD score was confirmed even when patients with abnormal creatinine serum levels were excluded from the analysis (c-index=0.935).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding creatinine values to the CTP slightly improves the prognostic usefulness of the traditional CTP score alone. The MELD score has a short-term prognostic yield that is better than what is provided by both the CTP and CTP creatinine-modified scores, even in cirrhotic patients who are not critically ill. The positive results obtained by using the MELD score were confirmed even after excluding patients with impaired renal function.

Persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis and low MELD scores who are at high risk for early death

Despite the adoption of "sickest first" liver transplantation, pretransplant death remains common, and many early deaths occur despite initially low Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. From 1997-2003, we studied 507 cirrhotic United States veterans referred for consideration of liver transplantation to identify additional predictors of early mortality. Most of the patients were male (98%) with cirrhosis caused by hepatitis C and/or alcohol (88%). Data for 296 patients referred prior to February 27, 2002 (training group), were analyzed; findings were validated in 211 patients referred subsequently (validation group). In the training group, 61 patients (21%) died within 180 days without transplantation; their median initial MELD score was 21. MELD score, persistent ascites, and low serum sodium (<135 meq/L) were independent predictors of early mortality. In patients with a MELD score of less than 21, only low serum sodium and persistent ascites were independent predictors of mortality; for MELD scores above 21, only MELD was independently predictive. Prognostic significance of persistent ascites and low serum sodium for low MELD score patients was confirmed in the validation group. Risk varied continuously with worsening hyponatremia. Modifying MELD, by including points for persistent ascites and low serum sodium, improved prediction of early pretransplant mortality in low MELD score patients. In conclusion, persistent ascites and low serum sodium identify patients with cirrhosis with high mortality risk despite low MELD scores. Ascites, hyponatremia, and other findings indicative of hemodynamic decompensation merit further prospective study as prognostic indicators in patients awaiting liver transplantation, and should be considered in setting minimal listing criteria.

Retransplantation for recurrent hepatitis C in the MELD era: maximizing utility

1. Retransplantation (re-LT) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence is controversial. Although re-LT accounts for 10% of all liver transplants (LTs), the number of patients requiring re-LT is expected to grow as primary LT recipients survive long enough to develop graft failure from recurrent disease. 2. Utility, as applied to the medical ethics of transplantation, refers to allocating organs to those individuals who will make the best use of them. The utility function (U) of liver transplantation is represented by the product of outcome (O = 1-year survival with LT) times emergency (E = 3-month mortality without LT), i.e., U = O x E. 3. For primary LT, maximal U is achieved by allocating organs at the highest model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (i.e., "sickest first"). No significant differences exist between HCV and non-HCV diagnoses. 4. For re-LT, maximal utility for HCV and non-HCV diagnoses are achieved at MELD scores of 21 and 24, respectively. Utility starts to decline at MELD scores above 28. 5. The current allocation system (MELD) fails to maximize utility with regard to re-LT.

Selection of pediatric candidates under the PELD system

1. The PELD score accurately predicts the 3 month probability of waiting list death for children with chronic liver disease. 2. Comparing pre and post PELD and MELD implementation, the percent of children receiving deceased donor livers increased and the percent of children dying on the list decreased after PELD/MELD implementation. 3. Excluding children transplanted at status 1, the largest percentage of children are transplanted at a PELD score < 10. 4. Before MELD/PELD 48% of all children receiving deceased donor organs were transplanted at status 1, compared to 41% in the PELD/MELD era. Wide regional variation occurs.

Preoperative delta-MELD score does not independently predict mortality after liver transplantation

Changes in model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of > or = 5 points over 30 days (delta-MELD) is an independent predictor for death in patients awaiting liver transplantation. The aim of the current study was to determine if a positive change in MELD score occurring over the 30 days immediately prior to liver transplantation was predictive of posttransplant mortality. MELD scores from the day of transplantation and 30 days prior to transplantation were calculated for 1510 UNOS patients and used to compute a delta-MELD score. Multivariate modeling determined predictors of posttransplant mortality. Patients with a preoperative delta-MELD > or = 5 had higher absolute MELD scores at transplant, shorter mean posttransplant survival and higher mortality. However, multivariate analysis showed that none of the excess mortality was attributable to the high delta-MELD score (p = 0.43 for delta-MELD > or = 5) and the majority of the excess risk was attributable to absolute MELD score (p < 0.001) at the time of transplantation. Mortality of patients with rapidly worsening chronic liver disease who undergo transplantation depends substantially on absolute MELD score at the time of transplantation but not the rate of change immediately preceding transplant. Allocation policymakers should consider that a high delta-MELD in the immediate pretransplant period does not indicate greater posttransplant mortality.

Evolution of the HALT-C Trial: pegylated interferon as maintenance therapy for chronic hepatitis C in previous interferon nonresponders

The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial was designed to determine whether maintenance interferon therapy could slow disease progression in patients who had failed to eradicate hepatitis C virus (HCV) during prior interferon treatment (nonresponders). Ten clinical sites, a virological testing center, and a data coordinating center (DCC) were selected to collaborate in the design and implementation of the final protocol. Eligible patients had been treated previously with interferon for at least 12 weeks, with or without another antiviral, ribavirin, but still had persistent viremia. Because patients had received a variety of prior treatments, and as a perceived benefit of enrollment, we incorporated a Lead-in period of treatment with long-acting pegylated interferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin into the study design, a combination believed to be more effective but not approved by the Food and Drug Administration at the Trial's inception. If patients failed to achieve clearance of virus from the blood after 20 weeks of this Lead-in therapy, they were entered into the main trial at week 24 and randomized to receive either a lower dose of pegylated interferon weekly alone or no further therapy for an additional 3 1/2 years. The original protocol was amended later in three respects to improve enrollment and to adapt to Food and Drug Administration approval of the Lead-in therapy, including allowing patients to proceed directly to the randomized part of the study if treatment resembling the Lead-in had been completed. The protocol changes enhanced enrollment while upholding the original goals of the study and its integrity.

Serum hyaluronate level for predicting subclinical liver dysfunction after hepatectomy

The serum hyaluronate (HA) level reflects sinusoidal endothelial cell function correlated with liver function. We have reviewed multiple liver function indicators from 37 patients who underwent hepatectomy for various liver diseases. The serum HA level was well correlated with the indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (ICGR15), lectin-cholesterol (LCAT), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), liver uptake ratio of technetium-99m galactosyl human serum albumin (99mTc-GSA) at 15 minutes (HH15), prealbumin, and hepatic uptake ratio of 99mTc-GSA at 15 minutes (LHL15). In addition, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score at 7 days after operation was well correlated with serum HA, ICGR15, HH15, and LHL15. In patients who showed serum an HA level of = 100 ng/ml before hepatectomy, the MELD score had significantly deteriorated by 7 days after hepatectomy. Of the 20 patients who showed a serum HA level < 100 ng/ml before hepatectomy, 11 had high serum HA after hepatectomy. The bilirubin level 7 days after operation in this group was much higher than that for patients who maintained a serum HA level < 100 ng/ml after hepatectomy. In addition, the serum HGF level before hepatectomy in this group was significantly lower. We concluded that the serum HA level is a reliable indicator when evaluating liver function and predicting liver dysfunction after hepatectomy. Furthermore, patients with a significantly low HGF level who have a normal HA level are susceptible to liver dysfunction after hepatectomy.

Pathophysiological effects of albumin dialysis in acute-on-chronic liver failure: a randomized controlled study

The pathophysiological basis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is unclear but systemic inflammatory response is thought to be important. In patients with ACLF, the molecular adsorbents recirculating system (MARS) improves individual organ function, but the effect of MARS on the proposed mediators of systemic inflammatory response is unclear. The present study was designed to determine the effect of MARS on the cytokine profile, oxidative stress, nitric oxide, and ammonia. A total of 18 patients with alcohol-related ACLF due to inflammation-related precipitants were randomized to receive standard medical therapy (SMT) alone, or with MARS therapy over 7 days. Plasma cytokines, malondialdehyde (MDA), free radical production, nitrate / nitrite (NOx), and ammonia were measured. Encephalopathy improved significantly with MARS (P < .01), but not with SMT. Mean arterial pressure and renal function remained unchanged. No significant change of plasma cytokines and ammonia levels were observed in either group. Plasma MDA levels did not change either. There was a fall in NOx (P < .05) with MARS, but not with SMT. In conclusion, in inflammation-related ACLF patients, albumin dialysis using MARS results in improvement of encephalopathy, independent of changes of ammonia or cytokines, without improving blood pressure or renal function. These results should temper the liberal use of MARS until further data is available.

Long-term results and modeling to predict outcomes in recipients with HCV infection: results of the NIDDK liver transplantation database

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated liver disease is the most common indication for liver transplantation (LT). There are, however, no long-term (>5 year) studies of comparative outcomes for recipients with HCV infection, and no models capable of identifying recipients with HCV infection at greatest risk for adverse outcomes. We prospectively determined: 1) long-term outcomes, and 2) whether pretransplant patient or donor variables can be used to predict death and/or graft loss in recipients with HCV infection. A total of 165 HCV-infected recipients were eligible for this study. Pretransplant donor and recipient characteristics and patient and graft survival data were prospectively collected. Model building for outcomes was carried out using logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves for different models were created and compared. Median follow-up was 8.5 years. Adjusted 10 year graft survival was 64% for recipients with HCV infection and 51% for uninfected recipients. A model incorporating pretransplant HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA), cytomegalovirus immunoglobulin (CMV IgG) serostatus, creatinine, bilirubin, prothrombin time international ratio (INR), recipient age, and donor age was developed to identify recipients at greatest risk of short-term mortality or graft loss (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = .83) In conclusion, long-term outcomes following LT for recipients with HCV infection are comparable to those for recipients undergoing LT for other indications. HCV-infected recipients at greatest risk for short-term mortality and graft loss can be identified using several readily identifiable pretransplant variables. Long-term death and graft loss specifically secondary to recurrence of HCV appears, however, to be determined primarily by factors other than those included in this analysis.

A general approach to the management of chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the most common chronic blood-borne infection in the United States. Although many will live a lifetime unaffected by the consequence of chronic infection, some will develop cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease. Given the broad spectrum of disease outcomes, developing a careful systematic approach to infected patients is fundamental. This allows the practitioner to provide accurate education, develop treatment plans, and determine appropriate health care maintenance and screening. Care for the patient with HCV must be individualized. In this regard,the purpose of this article is not to present a guideline, but to provide a foundation of information that will aid the provider and patient in developing an appropriate treatment strategy.

Relationship of hemodynamic indices and prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hyperdynamic circulation due to reduced peripheral vascular resistance and increased cardiac output, and the development of portal hypertension are the hemodynamic changes observed in patients with liver cirrhosis. Such hemodynamic abnormalities appear in patients with late stage liver cirrhosis. Therefore, hemodynamic indices, which represent hyperdynamic circulation and portal hypertension, are significant for the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to determine the hemodynamic indices associated with the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 103 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis between December 1999 and June 2003, with a mean follow-up period of 73 weeks, ranging from 7 to 168 weeks, were recruited. Using Child-Pugh classification, the mean arterial pressure, heart rate and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) were measured. The indices of Doppler ultrasonography, including the portal and splenic venous flows, and the resistance of the hepatic, splenic, and renal arteries were also measured using the arterial pulsatility index (PI). The prognostic values of these indices were determined by their comparison with the patient survivals.

RESULTS

Significant hemodynamic indices for a bad prognosis were high HVPG (> or = 15 mmHg) and renal arterial PI (> or = 1.14)(p<0.05). A Child-Pugh score > or = 10 was important for a poor prognosis (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Severe portal hypertension (HVPG > or = 15 mmHg) and high renal arterial resistance (PI +/- 1.14) were valuable hemodynamic indices for the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis. Therefore, it was concluded that the measurement of these hemodynamic indices, in addition to the Child-Pugh classification, is helpful in the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis.

Randomized controlled study of TIPS versus paracentesis plus albumin in cirrhosis with severe ascites

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has been shown to be effective in the control of refractory or recidivant ascites. However, the effect of TIPS on survival as compared with that of large-volume paracentesis plus albumin is uncertain. A multicenter, prospective, clinical trial was performed in 66 patients with cirrhosis and refractory or recidivant ascites (16 Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B and 50 Child-Turcotte-Pugh class C) randomly assigned to treatment with TIPS (n = 33) or with large-volume paracentesis plus human albumin (n = 33). The primary endpoint was survival without liver transplantation. Secondary endpoints were treatment failure, rehospitalization, and occurrence of complications. Thirteen patients treated with TIPS and 20 patients treated with paracentesis died during the study period, 4 patients in each group underwent liver transplantation. The probability of survival without transplantation was 77% at 1 year and 59% at 2 years in the TIPS group as compared with 52% and 29% in the paracentesis group (P = .021). In a multivariate analysis, treatment with paracentesis and higher MELD score showed to independently predict death. Treatment failure was more frequent in patients assigned to paracentesis, whereas severe episodes of hepatic encephalopathy occurred more frequently in patients assigned to TIPS. The number and duration of rehospitalizations were similar in the two groups. In conclusion, compared to large-volume paracentesis plus albumin, TIPS improves survival without liver transplantation in patients with refractory or recidivant ascites.

Are physician-derived disease severity indices associated with health-related quality of life in patients with end-stage liver disease?

OBJECTIVES

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is now often used as an overall indicator of health status for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, there are no data evaluating the associations between MELD scores and patient reports of health-related quality of life (HRQOL).

METHODS

Two hundred-three patients with end-stage liver disease completed a disease-targeted HRQOL instrument (the LDQOL 1.0). Patients also rated the severity of their liver disease and reported number of disability days attributed to their liver disease in the preceding month. MELD and Child Turcott Pugh (CTP) scores were calculated for all patients. Associations of MELD and CTP scores with patient-derived outcomes were estimated.

RESULTS

The mean MELD and CTP scores were 12 and 7, respectively, indicating mild severity of liver disease. HRQOL of patients was generally poor, with the mean SF-36 physical and mental component summary scores of 35 and 40. Seventy percent of patients rated their liver disease symptoms as moderate to severe. Similarly, 70% reported being disabled from their liver disease. MELD was associated with physical functioning scale and the physical component summary (PCS) score in patients with end-stage liver disease. In contrast, CTP score was significantly associated with physical functioning, role limitations due to physical health problems, PCS score, effects of liver disease, sexual functioning, and sexual problems. Both MELD and CTP scores correlated with self-rated severity of liver disease symptoms but not with self-reported disability days.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite objectively mild liver disease, the subjective HRQOL of this cohort was severely impaired. CTP score was more closely associated with patient-reported estimates of HRQOL than the MELD score. CTP or disease-specific HRQOL instruments may compliment MELD by providing insights into outcomes of importance to patients with low risk of mortality.

Review article: hepatic hydrothorax

Patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension often have abnormal extracellular fluid volume regulation, resulting in accumulation of fluid as ascites, oedema or pleural effusion. These complications carry a poor prognosis with nearly half of the patients with ascites dying in the ensuing 2-3 years. In contrast to what happens in the abdominal cavity where large amounts of fluid (5-8 L) accumulate with the patient only experiencing only mild symptoms, in the thoracic cavity smaller amounts of fluid (1-2 L) cause severe symptoms such as shortness of breath, cough and hypoxaemia. Hepatic hydrothorax is defined as a pleural effusion, usually >500 mL, in patients with cirrhosis without cardiopulmonary disease. The pathophysiology involves the direct movement of ascitic fluid from the peritoneal cavity into the pleural space through diaphragmatic defects. The estimated prevalence among cirrhotic patients is 5-10%. The effusion, which is a transudate, most commonly occurs in the right hemithorax. The mainstay of therapy is similar to that of portal hypertensive ascites and includes sodium restriction and administration of diuretics. Refractory hydrothorax can be managed with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in selected cases. Pleurodesis is not routinely recommended. Suitable patients with hepatic hydrothorax should be considered candidates for liver transplantation.

Screening for West Nile virus in organ transplantation: a medical decision analysis

The Organ Procurement and Transplant Network (OPTN) has recently announced that screening for West Nile Virus (WNV) in deceased organ donors is not recommended at this time. The purpose of this report was to examine the impact of this recommendation by using medical decision analysis. Without screening the rate of disease transmission was assumed to be the same as in donated blood with a case fatality rate of 25%. With screening we assumed the baseline screening test specificity and sensitivity to be 99.5% and 95%, respectively. The analysis was confined to heart, liver and kidney recipients. Survival probabilities and transplant rates were taken from UNOS. Annual screening could result in the loss of potentially 452.4 life years (113.8 for heart, 272.6 for liver and 66.0 for kidney). Most positive test results would be false-positive. Screening would be preferable for kidney donors in areas of high disease prevalence and high test specificity. However, for heart and liver most scenarios were associated with a net loss of life with screening, except if patients were stable on the wait list with particularly high case fatality rates from WNV. Current recommendations by OPTN that screening is not mandatory seem appropriate until further data are available.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts: experience in the oncology setting

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement has emerged as an effective and minimally invasive method of treating portal hypertension and its associated complications. To the authors' knowledge there is limited documentation of its use for percutaneous shunting in patients with hepatic and extrahepatic malignancies. The current study reports the authors' experience with TIPS in the oncology setting.

METHODS

Thirty-eight patients with cancer underwent TIPS procedures. Nineteen patients had a history of hepatic malignancy. All medical records and imaging studies were reviewed retrospectively. The indication for TIPS, the presence of malignancy, procedural details, complications, survival, and treatment success were assessed.

RESULTS

Primary technical success was accomplished in 37 of 38 patients (97%) without technical procedure-related complications. Hepatic encephalopathy occurred in 15 of 34 patients (44%), with 3 patients requiring shunt reduction. Premature shunt occlusion (< 30 days) occurred in 3 patients (8%). Recurrent hemorrhage occurred in 1 of 19 patients (5%), and ascites and hepatic hydrothorax resolved or improved subjectively in 9 of 12 patients (75%). Shunts traversed malignancy in 9 patients, and varying degrees of portal compromise were encountered in 12 patients (32%). The overall 30-day and 90-day survival rates were 84% and 60%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in 90-day survival rates for patients who had ascites and hepatic hydrothorax indications (27%) compared with patients who had variceal and portal gastropathy indications (84%; P = 0.0075). In addition, the 90-day survival rate was significantly lower in patients who had primary hepatic malignancies (36%) compared with the remainder of the study population (74%; P = 0.0077), and it was significantly lower in patients who had model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores > or = 12 (P = 0.0020).

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS was performed safely for patients with cancer without increasing rates of procedure-related complications. However, some patients subgroups, such at those with malignancy and ascites, primary hepatic malignancy, or MELD scores > or = 12, had the lowest 90-day survival rates.

Lessons learned from one hundred right lobe living donor liver transplants

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the first 100 adult right lobe living donor liver transplants (LDLT) in a single center to determine whether the results have improved with technical modifications and better experience.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Right lobe LDLT has been increasingly performed for adults with end-stage liver disease. Numerous modifications in technique have been introduced, and a learning curve is likely in view of its complexity.

METHODS

One hundred consecutive adult right lobe LDLTs performed between May 1996 and May 2002 were retrospectively studied by comparing the first 50 (group 1) with the last 50 cases (group 2). The median follow-up was 37 (27 to 79) months for group 1 and 15 (7 to 27) months for group 2.

RESULTS

The characteristics of donors and liver grafts were similar. In group 2, fewer recipients were intensive care unit (ICU)-bound or had hepatorenal syndrome before transplantation, and there was a lower disease severity as shown by a lower Child-Pugh score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Significant improvements were found in the operation time, blood loss, ICU stay, and postoperative complication rate of the donors and in the operation time, transfusion requirements, number of reoperations, ICU stay, and hospital stay of the recipients in group 2. The hospital mortality rate of recipients was reduced from 16% to 0% (P = 0.006). Graft survival rates at 12 months and 24 months were improved from 80% and 74%, respectively, in group 1 to 100% and 96%, respectively, in group 2 (P = 0.002). After adjusting for differences in recipient risk factors (ICU-bound, hepatorenal syndrome, Child-Pugh score, and MELD score) in a multivariate Cox model, recipients in group 2 had significantly lower risk of graft loss (relative risk compared with group 1, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.66; P = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a learning curve in adult right lobe LDLT. The results have significantly improved with technical refinement and better experience.

Lessons learned from one hundred right lobe living donor liver transplants

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the first 100 adult right lobe living donor liver transplants (LDLT) in a single center to determine whether the results have improved with technical modifications and better experience.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Right lobe LDLT has been increasingly performed for adults with end-stage liver disease. Numerous modifications in technique have been introduced, and a learning curve is likely in view of its complexity.

METHODS

One hundred consecutive adult right lobe LDLTs performed between May 1996 and May 2002 were retrospectively studied by comparing the first 50 (group 1) with the last 50 cases (group 2). The median follow-up was 37 (27 to 79) months for group 1 and 15 (7 to 27) months for group 2.

RESULTS

The characteristics of donors and liver grafts were similar. In group 2, fewer recipients were intensive care unit (ICU)-bound or had hepatorenal syndrome before transplantation, and there was a lower disease severity as shown by a lower Child-Pugh score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Significant improvements were found in the operation time, blood loss, ICU stay, and postoperative complication rate of the donors and in the operation time, transfusion requirements, number of reoperations, ICU stay, and hospital stay of the recipients in group 2. The hospital mortality rate of recipients was reduced from 16% to 0% (P = 0.006). Graft survival rates at 12 months and 24 months were improved from 80% and 74%, respectively, in group 1 to 100% and 96%, respectively, in group 2 (P = 0.002). After adjusting for differences in recipient risk factors (ICU-bound, hepatorenal syndrome, Child-Pugh score, and MELD score) in a multivariate Cox model, recipients in group 2 had significantly lower risk of graft loss (relative risk compared with group 1, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.66; P = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a learning curve in adult right lobe LDLT. The results have significantly improved with technical refinement and better experience.

Advances in liver transplantation. New strategies and current care expand access, enhance survival

Liver transplantation revolutionized the management of liver disease. Although the number of patients who could benefit from a transplant far exceeds the number of available cadaveric donors, new strategies, such as splitting cadaveric organs and using living donors, have expanded access to transplantation. Here, a team of transplant physicians highlights these new strategies, as well as the long-term management issues of special relevance to primary care physicians caring for transplant recipients.

Surgical management of hepatic malignancy

Over the past twenty-five years, hepatic resection has evolved from a high risk, resource-intensive procedure with limited application to a safe and commonly performed operation with broad indications. This period has seen dramatic improvements in perioperative outcome, including reductions in mortality, blood loss, transfusion rates, and hospital stay. These improved perioperative results are largely responsible for the emergence of hepatic resection as a viable and effective treatment option for selected patients with 1 degree and 2 degrees hepatobiliary malignancy. Continued advances in imaging technology, along with a heightened awareness of the clinical and tumor-related variables that dictate outcome, have allowed better preoperative assessment of disease extent and improved patient selection. Advances in other areas, such as minimally invasive and ablative techniques, have increased the treatment options and have had some impact on the approach to patients with malignant hepatobiliary disease; however, resection remains the most effective therapy. Although the long term results after resection are better than with other modalities, recurrence rates remain high, and further improvements in survival will require more effective systemic agents. As better adjuvant and neo-adjuvant therapies emerge, the results of resection are likely to improve and the indications for its application perhaps will extend to patients currently considered to have unresectable disease.

Clinical characterization and survival of adult patients awaiting liver transplantation in Chile

Liver transplantation has become widely used for patients with decompensated disease. Because of the shortage of donors, each year more patients die on the waiting list. Our aim was to characterize and evaluate the final outcomes of all listed candidates for liver transplantation during a 34-month period. We retrospectively evaluated all adults listed between January 2000 and November 2002. Sixty-three patients (37 women, mean age 45.8 years) were listed: 48 due to chronic liver disease and 15 for a highly urgent transplantation due to acute liver failure. The main etiology of chronic disease was alcoholic (22%) or primary biliary cirrhosis (17%). Of 52 chronic patients, 26 (50%) were transplanted with a mean waiting time of 168 days. Among the others, 8 died (15%) while awaiting transplantation, 3 (5%) were removed from the list, and 15 patients still await transplantation (28%). Among acute liver failure patients, the main etiologies were autoimmune (25%) and medication induced (25%). Of 15 acute patients, 6 (37.5%) have been transplanted at a mean waiting time of 6.8 days with 100% survival posttransplantation. In this cohort, 6 patients (37.5%) died while awaiting liver transplantation, and 4 (25%) survived with medical support. In conclusion, the severity of liver disease and death rate among our waiting list was similar to that observed in developed countries. It seems reasonable to review our current allocation system based on waiting time on the list. We will have to decide whether to transplant sicker patients or those with hepatocarcinoma (as in the United States recently with the MELD system), thereby possibly decreasing the mortality rate on the waiting list at the expense of higher costs and more difficult postoperative care or to just keep our current policy.

Pretransplant MELD score and post liver transplantation survival in the UK and Ireland

It has been shown that the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an accurate predictor of survival in patients with liver disease without transplantation. Four recent studies carried out in the United States have demonstrated that the MELD score obtained immediately prior to transplantation is also associated with post-transplant patient survival. Our aim was to evaluate how accurately the MELD score predicts 90-day post-transplant survival in adult patients with chronic liver disease in the UK and Ireland. The UK and Ireland Liver Transplant Audit has data on all liver transplants since 1994. We studied survival of 3838 adult patients after first elective liver transplantation according to United Network for Organ Sharing categories of their MELD scores (< or = 10, 11-18, 19-24, 25-35, > or =36). The overall survival at 90-days was 90.2%. The 90-day survival varied according to the United Network for Organ Sharing MELD categories (92.6%, 91.9%, 89.7%, 89.7%, and 70.8%, respectively; P < 0.01). Therefore, only those patients with a MELD score of 36 or higher (3% of the patients) had a survival that was markedly lower than the rest. As a consequence, the ability of the MELD score to discriminate between patients who were dead or alive was poor (c-statistic 0.58). Re-estimating the coefficients in the MELD regression model, even allowing for nonlinear relationships, did not improve its discriminatory ability. In conclusion, in the UK and Ireland the MELD score is significantly associated with post-transplant survival, but its predictive ability is poor. These results are in agreement with results found in the United States. Therefore, the most appropriate system to support patient selection for transplantation will be one that combines a pretransplant survival model (e.g., MELD score) with a properly developed post-transplant survival model.

Studies of Pediatric Liver Transplantation: 2002 update. An overview of demographics, indications, timing, and immunosuppressive practices in pediatric liver transplantation in the United States and Canada

Studies of Pediatric Liver Transplantation (SPLIT) was initiated in 1995 for the purpose of collecting comprehensive data from children undergoing liver transplantation. As of May 31, 2002, 1761 children were registered in SPLIT from 38 participating centers in the United States and Canada. This report focuses on the demographics, primary diagnoses, clinical indications for transplant, and probability of obtaining liver transplantation for the 1187 children receiving a liver transplant after registration in SPLIT. Demographic information is also provided for the 1092 children who received their first ever liver transplantation. For this cohort, we also describe immunosuppressive practices at the time of transplant, and how the use of different medications changes with time.

TIPS versus peritoneovenous shunt in the treatment of medically intractable ascites: a prospective randomized trial

OBJECTIVE

We undertook a prospective randomized clinical trial comparing TIPS to peritoneovenous (PV) shunts in the treatment of medically intractable ascites to establish relative efficacy and morbidity, and thereby superiority, between these shunts.

METHODS

Thirty-two patients were prospectively randomized to undergo TIPS or peritoneovenous (Denver) shunts. All patients had failed medical therapy.

RESULTS

After TIPS versus peritoneovenous shunts, median (mean +/- SD) duration of shunt patency was similar: 4.4 months (6 +/- 6.6 months) versus 4.0 months (5 +/- 4.6 months). Assisted shunt patency was longer after TIPS: 31.1 months (41 +/- 25.9 months) versus 13.1 months (19 +/- 17.3 months) (P < 0.01, Wilcoxon test). Ultimately, after TIPS 19% of patients had irreversible shunt occlusion versus 38% of patients after peritoneovenous shunts. Survival after TIPS was 28.7 months (41 +/- 28.7 months) versus 16.1 months (28 +/- 29.7 months) after peritoneovenous shunts. Control of ascites was achieved sooner after peritoneovenous shunts than after TIPS (73% vs. 46% after 1 month), but longer-term efficacy favored TIPS (eg, 85% vs. 40% at 3 years).

CONCLUSION

TIPS and peritoneovenous shunts treat medically intractable ascites. Absence of ascites after either is uncommon. PV shunts control ascites sooner, although TIPS provides better long-term efficacy. After either shunt, numerous interventions are required to assist patency. Assisted shunt patency is better after TIPS. Treating medically refractory ascites with TIPS risks early shunt-related mortality for prospects of longer survival with ascites control. This study promotes the application of TIPS for medically intractable ascites if patients undergoing TIPS have prospects beyond short-term survival.

Incidence and risk factors for acute renal failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is effective for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Considerable amounts of radiocontrast agent are used for TACE and may induce renal dysfunction.

METHOD

This study prospectively investigated the incidence and risk factors of acute renal failure (ARF), defined as an increase of serum creatinine level >1.5 mg/dl after TACE.

RESULTS

ARF developed in 12 (8.6%) of 140 patients after TACE. Univariate analysis showed that number of treatment sessions (2.3 +/- 1.4 vs 1.3 +/- 1.6, P=0.013), Child-Pugh class B (50% vs 21%, P=0.035) and the occurrence of severe postembolization syndrome (75% vs 30%, P=0.020) were significantly associated with the development of ARF. Multivariate logistic regression analysis disclosed that the proportional increased risk of ARF was 65% for each additional TACE therapy (odds ratio [OR]: 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-2.41, P=0.010). Other independent risk factors were Child-Pugh class B (OR: 12.82, 95% CI: 2.44-67.29, P=0.003) and severe postembolization syndrome (OR: 6.64, 95% CI: 1.60-27.49, P=0.009). Four (33%) of the patients with ARF developed irreversible renal function impairment, and diabetes mellitus was the only associated factor (P=0.067) in this group.

CONCLUSIONS

ARF after TACE is closely associated with number of treatment sessions, severity of cirrhosis and development of severe postembolization syndrome. Effective preventive measures should be undertaken especially in high-risk patients.

Interleukin-2 receptor antibody (basiliximab) for immunosuppressive induction therapy after liver transplantation: a protocol with early elimination of steroids and reduction of tacrolimus dosage

A prospective evaluation was performed to study the potential benefits of the use of interleukin-2 receptor antibody (IL-2Rab) in the induction therapy with early elimination of steroid and reduction of tacrolimus dosage in liver transplant recipients among whom 94% had chronic hepatitis B infection. Thirty-one liver transplant recipients who underwent right-lobe live donor (n = 19) or cadaveric (n = 12) liver transplantation received IL-2Rab, basiliximab 20 mg intravenously within 6 hours of graft reperfusion and on postoperative day 4 (IL-2ab group). Two doses of steroid injection were given intraoperatively and on postoperative day 1. Postoperative immunosuppression was maintained with oral tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil without the use of steroids. The operative outcomes were compared with those of 49 patients who received standard immunosuppressive regimen consisting of tacrolimus and corticosteroid (steroid group). The overall postoperative morbidity and hospital stay were comparable between the 2 groups. There were significantly lower incidences of postoperative new-onset diabetes (0% vs 28%, P =.011), acute cellular rejection (6% vs 27%, P =.038), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) antigenemia (0% vs 18%, P =.011) in the IL-2Rab group compared with the steroid group. The blood cholesterol level at 6 months after transplantation was significantly lower in the IL-2Rab group (median, 4.0 vs 4.4 mmol/L, P =.007). On follow-up, none of the patients in the IL-2Rab group had hepatitis B viral breakthrough or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence, whereas 1 and 3 patients in the steroid group developed these complications, respectively. In conclusion, treatment of liver transplant recipients with IL-2Rab with early withdrawal of steroids and reduction of tacrolimus dosage is associated with lower incidences of postoperative new-onset diabetes, acute cellular rejection, and CMV antigenemia, as well as a lower serum cholesterol level. Further studies and long-term follow-up are required to document their potential benefits on hepatitis B and HCC recurrences.

Application of the model for end-stage liver disease score for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites and renal impairment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) can manage severe complications of portal hypertension. The Mayo Clinic group proposed a so-called model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) to predict survival in cirrhotic patients. High creatinine levels determine a decrease in calculated survival chances with MELD but functional renal disease can be reversed by TIPS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of MELD in predicting survival after TIPS, particularly in patients with refractory ascites associated with functional renal failure.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis examines 68 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective TIPS: 48 patients had refractory ascites and 20 patients had recurrent variceal bleeding. Multivariate analysis was used to establish predictive parameters of survival after TIPS. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used to compare survival rates observed in our patients with those evaluated with the MELD score.

RESULTS

The age of patients was the only variable shown to have an independent value in predicting survival after TIPS. In patients undergoing shunting for refractory ascites, the survival rates at 6, 12 and 24 months after the procedure were significantly higher than expected with the MELD score.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD scale may underestimate the efficacy of TIPS in end-stage cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites and functional kidney dysfunction. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding and ultimately to assess a correction factor to better predict survival after TIPS in patients with functional renal impairment.