Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

Carbon Smart Strategies for Enhanced Food System Resilience Under a Changing Climate

There is an urgent need to match food production with increasing world population through identification of sustainable land management strategies. However, the struggle to achieve food security should be carried out keeping in mind the soil where the crops are grown and the environment in which the living things survive, especially under rainfed agricultural system. Rainfed agricultural ecosystem is extremely fragile, improving soil fertility and reducing greenhouse gas emission are key factors for developing sustainable agriculture. Moreover, society increasingly expects agriculture to be more sustainable, by decreasing irrigation and mineral fertilizer inputs. Increasing food production sustainably through efficient use of resources will strongly contribute to food security, sustainable agriculture development, and increased climate change resilience. This paper addresses the effects of carbon smart technologies on greenhouse gas emission, soil quality and crop productivity in rainfed agro ecological environment. This paper hypothesized that application of carbon smart technologies could improve soil physical and chemical properties to enhance GHG mitigation and crop production. Carbon smart technologies highlighted in this paper include minimum tillage, crop residue retention, agroforestry, biofuels, integrated nutrient management and land use management systems. This paper review and discusses the work done on carbon smart technologies in different agro-ecological regions so as to understand its impact from the perspectives of the soil, the crop and the environment. The impact of conservation agriculture on greenhouse gas emissions and the underlying mechanism in different agroecological environments have been discussed. A detailed case study and tremendous advancements on the strength of integration of trees and shrub as carbon smart technologies in improving soil and crop productivity is highlighted immensely. The paper concludes with recommendations for encouraging and improving adoption by smallholder farmers to ensure more efficient and sustainable food system. This systematic review will primarily contribute to the achievement of the following Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG1 (No poverty), SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG5 (Gender equality) and SDG13 (Climate action).

Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23-31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Planetary good governance after the Paris Agreement: The case for a global greenhouse gas tax

The Paris Agreement and the subsequent IPCC Global Warming of 1.5 °C report signal a need for greater urgency in achieving carbon emissions reductions. In this paper we make a two stage argument for greater use of carbon taxes and for a global approach to this. First, we argue that current modelling tends to lead to a "facts in waiting" approach to technology, which takes insufficient account of uncertainty. Rather than look to the future, carbon taxes that facilitate social redesign are something we have control over now. Second, we argue that the "trade" in "cap and trade" has been ineffective and carbon trading has served mainly as a distraction. Carbon taxes provide a simpler more flexible and pervasive alternative. We conclude with brief discussion of global context.

Threshold, budget and deadline: beyond the discourse of climate scarcity and control

Since its inception, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has always been at the centre of the global climate debate. Its authoritative reports provide cultural resources for public understanding on the challenge of climate change. While the IPCC maintains its perception as a policy-neutral adviser, the IPCC in practice acts as a powerful discursive agent that guides policy debates in a certain direction by enacting influential scientific concepts. These concepts include three prominent metaphors-temperature threshold, carbon budget and climate deadline-that have been widely circulated across science, policy and advocacy. Three metaphors differ on ways in which the risk of climate change is expressed in terms of space and time. But they all constitute the discourse of climate scarcity-the cognitive view of that we have (too) little space and time to stay below a physical limit for avoiding dangerous climate change. This discursive construction of physical scarcity on climate change has significant political and psychological implications. Politically, the scarcity discourse has the risk of increasing a post-political tendency towards managerial control of the global climate ('scarcity of politics'). Psychologically, however, scarcity has a greater risk of generating a 'scarcity mindset' that inhibits our cognitive capacity to imagine human life beyond managing physical scarcity. Under a narrow mindset of scarcity, the future is closed down to the 'point of no return' that, if crossed, is destined to be the end. To go beyond the scarcity discourse, a new discourse of emancipation has to be fostered. Climate change can be reframed not as a common single destination but as a predicament for actively reimagining human life. Such a narrative can expand our imaginative capacity and animate political action while embracing social losses.

Assessment of the Coastal Vulnerability to the Ongoing Sea Level Rise for the Exquisite Rhodes Island (SE Aegean Sea, Greece)

The foreseeable acceleration of global sea level rise could potentially pose a major threat to the natural charm and functional integrity of the world-renowned tourist coastal attractions of Rhodes Island, as a result of the anticipated increasing frequency of flooding and erosion events. Hence, this study aims to determine the most vulnerable segments (in terms of physical impact) of the Rhodes coastline through the widely accepted coastal vulnerability index (CVI), applying a combination of well-known, broadly used approaches and methods. The frequency distribution of the current CVI along the island’s coastline suggests a rather worrying high to very high vulnerability of 40%. In addition, a CVI projection to the end of the 21st century (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictive scenarios) indicates an enhancement of the total vulnerability by 48%, mainly focused on the majority of the western coastline. Hence, a considerable number of popular coastal destinations in the island shall remain under unignorable threat and, therefore, coastal managers and decision-makers need to hatch an integrated plan to minimize economic and natural losses, private property damage and tourism infrastructure deterioration from flooding and erosion episodes, which will most likely be intensified in the future.

Connecting targets for catchment sediment loads to ecological outcomes for seagrass using multiple lines of evidence

Catchment impacts on downstream ecosystems are difficult to quantify, but important for setting management targets. Here we compared 12 years of monitoring data of seagrass area and biomass in Cleveland Bay, northeast Australia, with discharge and associated sediment loads from nearby rivers. Seagrass biomass and area exhibited different trajectories in response to river inputs. River discharge was a slightly better predictor of seagrass indicators than total suspended solid (TSS) loads, indicating that catchment effects on seagrass are not restricted to sediment. Linear relationships between Burdekin River TSS loads delivered over 1-4 years and seagrass condition in Cleveland Bay generated Ecologically Relevant Targets (ERT) for catchment sediment inputs. Our predicted ERTs were comparable to those previously estimated using mechanistic models. This study highlights the challenges of linking catchment inputs to condition of downstream ecosystems, and the importance of integrating a variety of metrics and approaches to increase confidence in ERTs.

Trends and variability in polar sea ice, global atmospheric circulations, and baroclinicity

We analyze the polar sea ice distribution and the global sea level pressure (SLP) and baroclinicity distributions over the "satellite" period of 1979-2020. In the Arctic, there are statistically significant sea ice extent (SIE) decreases in all calendar months, and the annual mean has lost 2.22 million km² over the four decades. The Antarctic SIE, in marked contrast, increased up to 2014, then commenced a remarkable retreat (the annual mean ice extent decreased by 2.03 million km² in the 3 years to 2017), and subsequently increased to near its long-term average value in 2020. The shifts in seasonal-mean SLP patterns are consistent with a warming planet. At the synoptic scale, we diagnose the changes in the baroclinicity, the mechanism by which cyclones, fronts, and other weather systems are generated. Through a novel presentation, we give an overview of the relative roles of changes in the vertical shear and static stability in influencing the global trends in baroclinicity. In both the Arctic and Antarctic regions, baroclinicity is shown to have increased in each season (with the sole exception of the Arctic in summer). This increase, coupled with midlatitude decreases in baroclinicity, results in poleward shifts of the storm tracks.

Exploring the Cognitive Foundations of Managerial (Climate) Change Decisions

Climate change is a complex, multilevel challenge with implications of failure unimaginable for current and future generations. However, despite the Paris Agreement supporting the imperative for action in an atmosphere of scientific consensus, organisations are failing to take the decisive action required. We argue that this lack of organisational action needs to be addressed by examining the cognitive foundations of managerial decisions on climate change and sustainability. A systematic review of research on cognition, sensemaking and managerial interpretation where it is linked to climate change or sustainability is presented within this article. The results detail a multilevel analysis highlighting key themes and the core concepts from the literature including factors shaping the cognitive process, to elucidate reasons for inaction and potential for promoting change. Through this research, an integrated model is presented demonstrating the interaction of factors, cognitive processes and outcomes. Based on this analysis, potential reasons for inaction are proposed and countered by three potential solutions linked to leadership, social norms and structural reform.

Global distribution and coincidence of pollution, climate impacts, and health risk in the Anthropocene

Previous research demonstrates that low-income countries face higher risks than high-income countries from toxic pollution and climate change. However, the relationship between these two risks is little explored or tested, and efforts to address the risks are often independent and uncoordinated. We argue that the global risks from toxic pollution and climate change are highly correlated and should be jointly analyzed in order to inform and better target efforts to reduce or mitigate both risks. We provide such analysis for 176 countries and found a strong (r_s = -0.798;95%CI -0.852, -0.727) and significant (p<0.0001) relationship between the distribution of climate risk and toxic pollution. We also found that inequities in pollution production, economic status, and institutional readiness are interconnected and exacerbate risk for countries already in the highest risk categories for both toxic and non-toxic (greenhouse gas) pollution. The findings have policy implications, including the use of the proposed Target assessment to decide where best to address toxic and non-toxic pollution simultaneously, based on the need to minimize human suffering and maximize return on effort.

Palearctic passerine migrant declines in African wintering grounds in the Anthropocene (1970-1990 and near future): A conservation assessment using publicly available GIS predictors and machine learning

The Anthropocene causes many massive and novel impacts, e.g., on migratory birds and their habitats. Many species of migratory birds have been declining on the Palearctic-African flyway in recent decades. To investigate possible impacts on a continental scale, we used 18 predictors extracted from 16 publicly available GIS layers in combination with machine learning methods on the sub-Saharan distributions of 64 passerine migrant species. These bird species were categorized as having experienced a 'Large Decline' (n = 12), a 'Moderate Decline' (n = 6) or 'No Decline' (n = 46) based on European census data from 1970 to 1990. Therefore, we present the first study for these species which uses publically available Open Access GIS-data and a multivariate (n = 18) and multi-species (n = 64) machine learning approach to deduce possible past impacts. We furthermore modelled likely future human population change and climate change impacts. We identified three predictor themes related to the distributions and declines of these migratory birds: (I) locations, represented by African ecosystems, countries, and soil types; (II) human population pressures and land-use intensities, the latter represented by land-use categories, habitat area, and cropland proportion; and (III) climatic predictors. This is the first study to relate migratory bird declines to human population pressures and land-use intensities using this type of analysis. We also identified areas of conservation concern, such as the Sahel region. Our models also predict that the declining trends of migratory birds will continue into the foreseeable future across much of Africa. We then briefly discuss some wider conservation implications in the light of the increasing drivers of biodiversity change associated with the Anthropocene as well as some possible solutions. We argue that only comprehensive systemic change can mitigate the impacts on the migratory birds and their habitats.

Pessimism and Optimism in the Debate on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis

In the debate on climate change commentators often express pessimistic or optimistic views. We see this mainly in the media and popular literature, but also in various academic fields. The aim of this paper is to investigate different kinds of pessimistic and optimistic views put forward in this debate and suggest explanations of the diversity of views. The paper concludes that pessimism and optimism may concern, for example, climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change or specific measures of mitigation. These aspects are important to distinguish, because a person can be pessimist concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process and optimist concerning mitigation of climate change, and be pessimist concerning one specific mitigation measure and optimist concerning another. It is suggested that the diversity of pessimistic and optimistic views is due to the uncertainty of scientific climate models and the influence of evaluative and ideological assumptions.

Balancing Health, Economy and Climate Risk in a Multi-Crisis

In the presence of a global pandemic (COVID-19), the relentless pressure on global decision-makers is to ensure a balancing of health (reduce mortality impacts), economic goals (income for livelihood sustenance), and environmental sustainability (stabilize GHG emissions long term). The global energy supply system is a dominant contributor to the GHG burden and deeply embedded in the economy with its current share of 85%, use of fossil fuels has remained unchanged over 3 decades. A unique approach is presented to harmonizing the goals of human safety, economic development, and climate risk, respectively, through an operational tool that provides clear guidance to decision-makers in support of policy interventions for decarbonization. Improving climate change performance as an integral part of meeting human development goals allows the achievement of a country’s environmental, social, and economic well-being to be tracked and monitored. A primary contribution of this paper is to allow a transparent accounting of national performance highlighting the goals of enhancing human safety in concert with mitigation of climate risks. A measure of a country’s overall performance, combined as the Development and Climate Change Performance Index (DCI), is derived from two standardized indexes, the development index H and the Climate Change Performance Index CCPI. Data are analyzed for 55 countries comprising 65 percent of the world’s population. Through active management and monitoring, the proposed DCI can illustrate national performance to highlight a country’s current standing, rates of improvement over time, and a historical profile of progress of nations by bringing climate risk mitigation and economic well-being into better alignment.

Challenges and Opportunities for Climate Change Education (CCE) in East Africa: A Critical Review

It is undoubtedly clear that climate change is happening, and its adverse impacts could reverse the progress made toward meeting sustainable development goals. The global crisis poses one of the most severe challenges to reducing poverty and existing inequalities, especially in developing countries that are projected to be highly vulnerable to climate variability. However, the education sector provides an untapped opportunity for successful climate change adaptation and mitigation through knowledge and skill acquisitions, and consequently, positive behavioral change. Specifically, education can capacitate individuals and communities to make informed decisions and take practical actions for climate-resilient sustainable development. This study is focused on East Africa, a region whose economy heavily relies on climate-dependent activities. At present, East African governments are already embedding climate change in their school curriculum. However, they lack coherent approaches to leverage climate change education as a tool in their adaptation and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this review explores some of the critical barriers to climate change education and possible opportunities for leveraging learning to promote sustainable development in East Africa.

The upper temperature thresholds of life

Temperature affects many life processes, but its effect might be expected to differ among eukaryotic organisms inhabiting similar environments. We reviewed literature on temperature thresholds of humans, livestock, poultry, agricultural crops, and sparse examples of fisheries. We found that preferable and harmful temperatures are similar for humans, cattle, pigs, poultry, fish, and agricultural crops. Preferable temperatures range from 17°C to 24°C. Stress temperature thresholds are lower when humidity is higher. However, extended exposure to temperatures above 25°C with high humidity can cause heat stress in many organisms. Short exposures to temperatures above 35°C with high humidity, or above 40°C with low humidity, can be lethal. Increases in exposure, frequency, and duration of stressful and lethal temperatures increase the physiological stress and bodily damage suffered by humans, livestock, poultry, fish, and agricultural crops.

Developing a strong sustainability research program in marketing

This article takes stock of sustainability research in marketing and argues for developing a Strong Sustainability Research (SSR) program, led by a Consumer Culture Theory (CCT) approach. First, I define weak vs. strong sustainability and identify two main problems with continuing to research business with the weak sustainability approach. Second, I discuss past approaches to sustainability research in marketing, which primarily promote weak sustainability. Third, I use the agriculture industry to illustrate how an SSR program in marketing could be developed to bring insights to practitioners and policy makers and build new modes of production, consumption and exchange. Finally, I suggest that the SSR program facilitates collaboration between mainstream marketing and CCT researchers by providing a common ontological platform that can transform epistemological differences into complementary strengths. I argue SSR is a way that marketing research can gain broad impact and relevance.

Seagrasses in an era of ocean warming: a review

Seagrasses are valuable sources of food and habitat for marine life and are one of Earth's most efficient carbon sinks. However, they are facing a global decline due to ocean warming and eutrophication. In the last decade, with the advent of new technology and molecular advances, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies focusing on the effects of ocean warming on seagrasses. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the future of seagrasses in an era of ocean warming. We have gathered information from published studies to identify potential commonalities in the effects of warming and the responses of seagrasses across four distinct levels: molecular, biochemical/physiological, morphological/population, and ecosystem/planetary. To date, we know that although warming strongly affects seagrasses at all four levels, seagrass responses diverge amongst species, populations, and over depths. Furthermore, warming alters seagrass distribution causing massive die-offs in some seagrass populations, whilst also causing tropicalization and migration of temperate species. In this review, we evaluate the combined effects of ocean warming with other environmental stressors and emphasize the need for multiple-stressor studies to provide a deeper understanding of seagrass resilience. We conclude by discussing the most significant knowledge gaps and future directions for seagrass research.

A well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation

Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale negotiations, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Deepening existing voluntary mitigation pledges could require more stringent, legally-binding agreements that currently remain untenable at the global scale. Building-blocks approaches promise greater success by localizing agreements to regions or few-nation summits, but risk slowing mitigation adoption globally. Here, we show that a well-timed policy shift from local to global legally-binding agreements can dramatically accelerate mitigation compared to using only local, only global, or both agreement types simultaneously. This highlights the scale-specific roles of mitigation incentives: local agreements promote and sustain mitigation commitments in early-adopting groups, after which global agreements rapidly draw in late-adopting groups. We conclude that focusing negotiations on local legally-binding agreements and, as these become common, a renewed pursuit of stringent, legally-binding world-wide agreements could best overcome many current challenges facing climate mitigation.

Do we mitigate climate change in a Kyoto style global agreement or via multiple agreements among smaller groups of states? Here the authors show that the best strategy may begin with regional legally binding, aggressive agreements and, as these become common, renew pursuit of a global legally-binding treaty.

Exploring environmental sustainability in UK and US dental curricula and related barriers and enablers: a cross-sectional survey in two dental schools

Introduction Very little is known about the knowledge and attitudes of dental students and educators regarding environmental sustainability in dentistry (ESD), the presence of ESD in dental curricula, and barriers and enablers to embracing ESD in dental education.Methods A cross-sectional survey using piloted online questionnaires for students and educators was carried out at the Institute of Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London and at Harvard School of Dental Medicine. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and thematic analysis.Results ESD does not exist formally in the dental curricula at either institution. Despite poor knowledge, students and educators had very positive attitudes to embracing ESD in the curricula. The most noted barriers were lack of knowledge about ESD, lack of time for preparing ESD content, lack of ESD educational materials and infection control regulations. Enablers included embedding ESD in UK and US dental education standards, having institutional backing and support in terms of providing training, educational materials, capacity and incentives, as well as adopting a critical evidence-informed approach in reforming current infection control regulations.Conclusions Dental education and infection control regulatory bodies, as well as dental institutions, can embed ESD in UK and US dental curricula by supporting the implementation of identified enablers.

Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios

Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change requires limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, while the difficulty of reducing carbon emissions at the necessary rate increases the likelihood of temporarily overshooting this climate target. Using simulations with the land surface model JSBACH, we show that it takes high-latitude ecosystems and the state of permafrost-affected soils several centuries to adjust to the atmospheric conditions that arise at the 1.5 °C-target. Here, a temporary warming of the Arctic entails important legacy effects and we show that feedbacks between water-, energy- and carbon cycles allow for multiple steady-states in permafrost regions, which differ with respect to the physical state of the soil, the soil carbon concentrations and the terrestrial carbon uptake and -release. The steady-states depend on the soil organic matter content at the point of climate stabilization, which is significantly affected by an overshoot-induced soil carbon loss.

In this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.

Unique reactivity of nanoporous cellulosic materials mediated by surface-confined water

The remarkable efficiency of chemical reactions is the result of biological evolution, often involving confined water. Meanwhile, developments of bio-inspired systems, which exploit the potential of such water, have been so far rather complex and cumbersome. Here we show that surface-confined water, inherently present in widely abundant and renewable cellulosic fibres can be utilised as nanomedium to endow a singular chemical reactivity. Compared to surface acetylation in the dry state, confined water increases the reaction rate and efficiency by 8 times and 30%, respectively. Moreover, confined water enables control over chemical accessibility of selected hydroxyl groups through the extent of hydration, allowing regioselective reactions, a major challenge in cellulose modification. The reactions mediated by surface-confined water are sustainable and largely outperform those occurring in organic solvents in terms of efficiency and environmental compatibility. Our results demonstrate the unexploited potential of water bound to cellulosic nanostructures in surface esterifications, which can be extended to a wide range of other nanoporous polymeric structures and reactions.

Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate

Palaeorecords suggest that the climate system has tipping points, where small changes in forcing cause substantial and irreversible alteration to Earth system components called tipping elements. As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel burning, human activity could also trigger tipping, and the impacts would be difficult to adapt to. Previous studies report low global warming thresholds above pre-industrial conditions for key tipping elements such as ice-sheet melt. If so, high contemporary rates of warming imply that exceeding these thresholds is almost inevitable, which is widely assumed to mean that we are now committed to suffering these tipping events. Here we show that this assumption may be flawed, especially for slow-onset tipping elements (such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in our rapidly changing climate. Recently developed theory indicates that a threshold may be temporarily exceeded without prompting a change of system state, if the overshoot time is short compared to the effective timescale of the tipping element. To demonstrate this, we consider transparently simple models of tipping elements with prescribed thresholds, driven by global warming trajectories that peak before returning to stabilize at a global warming level of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. These results highlight the importance of accounting for timescales when assessing risks associated with overshooting tipping point thresholds.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Integrating science to address food and health within Global Agenda 2030

When recovering from the pandemic, it is important for Planet Earth to address the Global Agenda 2030, including food and water crises, and to bounce forward sustainably. The World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report and Global Agenda 2030 provide a framework for action and an integrated global science agenda response, involving food and health, is essential. The UN 2021 Summit on Food Systems provides an opportunity for the global science community to come together to address the Summit's Action Tracks, including building resilience to vulnerabilities, shocks and stresses. There would be major global benefits to have an international scientific network working with the UN to address the mandates of the UN Food Summit and Global Agenda 2030.

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

Choices We Make in Times of Crisis

We present a new framework that allows understanding those we deem irrational in the climate debate. Realizing if the issue is one of information, beliefs, values or means opens the door for more constructive dialogue. Decision-makers diverge in their responses to the urgent need for action on climate and biodiversity. Action gaps are fueled by the apparent inability of decision-makers to respond efficiently to the mounting threats described by scientists—and increasingly recognized by society. Surprisingly, with the growing evidence and the accumulation of firsthand experiences of the impacts of environment crises, the gap is not only a problem of conflicting values or beliefs but also a problem of inefficient strategies. Bridging the gap and tackling the growing polarization within society calls for decision-makers to engage with the full complexity of the issues the world is facing. We propose a framework characterizing five archetypes of decision-makers to help us out of the current impasse by better understanding the behavior of others. Dealing with the complexity of environmental threats requires decision-makers to question their understanding of who wins and who loses, and how others make decisions. This requires that decision-makers acknowledge complexity, embrace uncertainty, and avoid falling back on simplistic cognitive models. Understanding the complexity of the issue and how people make decisions is key to having a fighting chance of solving the climate crisis.

Network resilience of FitzHugh-Nagumo neurons in the presence of nonequilibrium dynamics

Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the face of perturbations. Most of the research on network resilience has focused on the transition from one equilibrium state to an alternative equilibrium state. Although the presence of nonequilibrium dynamics in some nodes may advance or delay sudden transitions in networks and give early warning signals of an impending collapse, it has not been studied much in the context of network resilience. Here we bridge this gap by studying a neuronal network model with diverse topologies, in which nonequilibrium dynamics may appear in the network even before the transition to a resting state from an active state in response to environmental stress deteriorating their external conditions. We find that the percentage of uncoupled nodes exhibiting nonequilibrium dynamics plays a vital role in determining the network's transition type. We show that a higher proportion of nodes with nonequilibrium dynamics can delay the tipping and increase networks' resilience against environmental stress, irrespective of their topology. Further, predictability of an upcoming transition weakens, as the network topology moves from regular to disordered.

Multiple Climate Tipping Points Metrics for Improved Sustainability Assessment of Products and Services

Mounting evidence indicates that climate tipping points can have large, potentially irreversible, impacts on the earth system and human societies. Yet, climate change metrics applied in current sustainability assessment methods generally do not consider these tipping points, with the use of arbitrarily determined time horizons and assumptions that the climate impact of a product or service is independent of emission timing. Here, we propose a new method for calculating climate tipping characterization factors for greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) at midpoint. It covers 13 projected tipping points, incorporates the effect that the crossing of a given tipping point has on accelerating the crossing of other tipping points, and addresses uncertainties in the temperature thresholds that trigger the tipping points. To demonstrate the added value of the new metric, we apply it to emissions stemming from end-of-life of plastic polymers and compare them with commonly used metrics. This highlights the need to consider climate tipping in sustainability assessment of products and services.

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.

Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science.

Comparison of Two 16S rRNA Primers (V3-V4 and V4-V5) for Studies of Arctic Microbial Communities

Microbial communities of the Arctic Ocean are poorly characterized in comparison to other aquatic environments as to their horizontal, vertical, and temporal turnover. Yet, recent studies showed that the Arctic marine ecosystem harbors unique microbial community members that are adapted to harsh environmental conditions, such as near-freezing temperatures and extreme seasonality. The gene for the small ribosomal subunit (16S rRNA) is commonly used to study the taxonomic composition of microbial communities in their natural environment. Several primer sets for this marker gene have been extensively tested across various sample sets, but these typically originated from low-latitude environments. An explicit evaluation of primer-set performances in representing the microbial communities of the Arctic Ocean is currently lacking. To select a suitable primer set for studying microbiomes of various Arctic marine habitats (sea ice, surface water, marine snow, deep ocean basin, and deep-sea sediment), we have conducted a performance comparison between two widely used primer sets, targeting different hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene (V3-V4 and V4-V5). We observed that both primer sets were highly similar in representing the total microbial community composition down to genus rank, which was also confirmed independently by subgroup-specific catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) counts. Each primer set revealed higher internal diversity within certain bacterial taxonomic groups (e.g., the class Bacteroidia by V3-V4, and the phylum Planctomycetes by V4-V5). However, the V4-V5 primer set provides concurrent coverage of the archaeal domain, a relevant component comprising 10-20% of the community in Arctic deep waters and the sediment. Although both primer sets perform similarly, we suggest the use of the V4-V5 primer set for the integration of both bacterial and archaeal community dynamics in the Arctic marine environment.

The Long Shadow of Fatalism: a Philosophical Speculation on Forster's "the Machine Stops" (1909) on the Disintegration of Technologically Advanced Societies Back Then and Today

EM Forster's short story "The Machine Stops" from 1909 is widely reread and discussed again for some ten years as it portrays a science-fiction world resting on similar technological advancements as today in the digital era. Also management literature reviewed the short story with regard to centralized decision making, rationality and totalitarianism. I argue instead, that the main theme of the short story is - in Forster's own words - the closing of a civilization in times of transition and facing major challenges. I built the argument by original quotes from Forster and by portraying the years 1906-9, when Forster developed the short story. This era before the Great War starting in 1914 was characterized by euphoric 'futurism' based on groundbreaking innovations like 'long distance messaging', 'penny post', 'animated films', Ford's assembly line, 'Olivetti typewriter', 'feature film', 'large ships' and 'air transportation' - the ingredients of the short story as I argue. At the same time these acquitted years were characterized by increasing disintegration, instability, rebellions and a financial crisis with bailout programs. Based on the analogy and as part of speculative philosophy I reconstruct the current great challenges with Forster' shadow of fatalism and arrive at the urgency to put more effort in addressing and researching pathways out of the crisis and towards stabilization of business and society.

How Open Innovation Practices Deliver Societal Benefits

Open innovation practices have the potential to benefit society greatly. Bridging the research on open innovation, diffusion of innovation and responsible innovation, this study investigates how open innovation practices can foster societal benefits. Elaborating on potential benefit gaps and detrimental effects of innovation, the study proposes six distinct innovation attributes to deliver societal benefits: (I) adequate information and communication channels, (II) affordability, (III) appropriateness and availability, (IV) anticipation in terms of appropriate and reflexive risk assessment, (V) accountability in terms of adequate cost allocation of detrimental side effects, and (VI) sustainable path creation for transitions towards societal and environmental sustainability. Ten different open innovation practices are assessed drawing on our own and other published empirical insights. This assessment provides insights into which features of the practices support social benefits. Based on this assessment, we propose a typology of three different practices in relation to societal benefits and discuss how they address the six innovation attributes. Providing rich insights into which practices deliver societal benefits through which features, this study makes a significant contribution to existing research on open innovation, responsible innovation, inclusive and social innovation. Some practical implications and directions for further research are provided.

Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

Julián Velasco et al. use climate model simulations to show how the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and unabated global warming under the RCP 8.5 scenario affect the global distribution of 2509 amphibian species. These results show severe and synergistic impacts of global warming, with particularly strong effects shown in the Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions.

Intergenerational sustainability is enhanced by taking the perspective of future generations

The intergenerational sustainability dilemma (ISD) is a situation of whether or not a person sacrifices herself for future sustainability. To examine the individual behaviors, one-person ISD game (ISDG) is instituted with strategy method where a queue of individuals is organized as a generational sequence. In ISDG, each individual chooses unsustainable (or sustainable) option with her payoff of [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and an irreversible cost of [Formula: see text] (zero cost) to future generations in [Formula: see text] situations. Future ahead and back (FAB) mechanism is suggested as resolution for ISD by taking the perspective of future generation whereby each individual is first asked to take the next generation's standpoint and request what she wants the current generation to choose, and, second, to make the actual decision from the original position. Results show that individuals choose unsustainable option as previous generations do so or [Formula: see text] is low (i.e., sustainability is endangered). However, FAB prevents individuals from choosing unsustainable option in such endangered situations. Overall, the results suggest that some new institutions, such as FAB mechanisms, which induce people to take the perspective of future generations, may be necessary to avoid intergenerational unsustainability, especially when intergenerational sustainability is highly endangered.

Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean

Understanding how marine heatwaves (MHWs) unfold in space and time under anthropogenic climate change is key to anticipate future impacts on ecosystems and society. Yet, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of MHWs is very limited. Here, I combine network theory with topological data analysis and event synchronization to high-resolution satellite data and to a set of Earth System Model simulations to reveal the dynamical organization of complex MHW networks. The analysis reveals that MHWs have already crossed a tipping point separating highly synchronized preindustrial MHWs from the more extreme, but less coherent warming events we experience today. This loose spatiotemporal organization persists under a reduced RCP 2.6 emission scenario, whereas a second abrupt transition towards a permanent state of highly synchronized MHWs is foreseen by 2075 under a business-as-usual RCP 8.5 scenario. These results highlight the risks of abrupt ocean transitions, which may dramatically affect marine life and humanity by eroding valuable time for adaptation to climate change.