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Norberg J, Blenckner T, Cornell SE, Petchey OL, Hillebrand H. Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1075-1093. [PMID: 35218290 PMCID: PMC9542146 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked‐in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked‐in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social‐ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked‐in debates: (1) The strongly context‐dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jon Norberg
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden
| | | | | | - Owen L Petchey
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Helmut Hillebrand
- Institute for Chemistry and Biology of Marine Environments [ICBM], Carl-von-Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
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2
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Uusitalo L, Blenckner T, Puntila-Dodd R, Skyttä A, Jernberg S, Voss R, Müller-Karulis B, Tomczak MT, Möllmann C, Peltonen H. Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth. Sci Total Environ 2022; 806:150450. [PMID: 34599959 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Revised: 08/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of research and model projections about potential management alternatives and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate how this type of a model can act as an emulator and ensemble, integrating disciplines such as climatology, biogeochemistry, marine and fisheries ecology as well as economics. Further, Bayesian network models include and present the uncertainty related to the predictions, allowing evaluation of the uncertainties, precautionary management, and the explicit consideration of acceptable risk levels. The Baltic Sea example also shows that the two biogeochemical models frequently used in future projections give considerably different predictions. Further, inclusion of parameter uncertainty of the food web model increased uncertainty in the outcomes and reduced the predicted manageability of the system. The model allows simultaneous evaluation of environmental and economic goals, while illustrating the uncertainty of predictions, providing a more holistic view of the management problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Uusitalo
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Riikka Puntila-Dodd
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annaliina Skyttä
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Susanna Jernberg
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Rudi Voss
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, 24118 Kiel, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Maciej T Tomczak
- Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Universität Hamburg, Große Elbstraße 133, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Heikki Peltonen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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3
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Belgrano A, Novaglio C, Svedäng H, Villasante S, Melián CJ, Blenckner T, Bergström U, Bryhn A, Bergström L, Bartolino V, Sköld M, Tomczak M, Wikström SA, Hansen AS, Linke S, Emmerson R, Morf A, Tönnesson K. Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.652492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for management and conservation and play an increasingly recognised role in societal and human well-being. However, the assessment of MPAs often lacks a simultaneous consideration of ecological and socio-economic outcomes, and this can lead to misconceptions on the effectiveness of MPAs. In this perspective, we present a transdisciplinary approach based on the Delphi method for mapping and evaluating Marine Protected Areas for their ability to protect biodiversity while providing Ecosystem Services (ES) and related human well-being benefits – i.e., the ecosystem outputs from which people benefit. We highlight the need to include the human dimensions of marine protection in such assessments, given that the effectiveness of MPAs over time is conditional on the social, cultural and institutional contexts in which MPAs evolve. Our approach supports Ecosystem-Based Management and highlights the importance of MPAs in achieving restoration, conservation, and sustainable development objectives in relation to EU Directives such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (MSPD), and the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP).
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4
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Ammar Y, Niiranen S, Otto SA, Möllmann C, Finsinger W, Blenckner T. The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:1485-1499. [PMID: 33438266 PMCID: PMC7985865 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2020] [Revised: 11/29/2020] [Accepted: 12/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yosr Ammar
- Stockholm Resilience CentreStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience CentreStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Saskia A. Otto
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery ScienceCenter for Earth System Research and SustainabilityUniversity of HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery ScienceCenter for Earth System Research and SustainabilityUniversity of HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - Walter Finsinger
- ISEM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHEMontpellierFrance
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5
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Heinze C, Blenckner T, Martins H, Rusiecka D, Döscher R, Gehlen M, Gruber N, Holland E, Hov Ø, Joos F, Matthews JBR, Rødven R, Wilson S. The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2008478118. [PMID: 33619085 PMCID: PMC7936299 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Heinze
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Martins
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Dagmara Rusiecka
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Ralf Döscher
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Marion Gehlen
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France
| | - Nicolas Gruber
- Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Elisabeth Holland
- Pacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Øystein Hov
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway
- The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 0271 Oslo, Norway
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - John Brian Robin Matthews
- School of Architecture, Computing and Engineering, University of East London, E16 2RD, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rolf Rødven
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Simon Wilson
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
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6
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Blenckner T, Möllmann C, Stewart Lowndes J, Griffiths JR, Campbell E, De Cervo A, Belgrano A, Boström C, Fleming V, Frazier M, Neuenfeldt S, Niiranen S, Nilsson A, Ojaveer H, Olsson J, Palmlöv CS, Quaas M, Rickels W, Sobek A, Viitasalo M, Wikström SA, Halpern BS. The Baltic Health Index (BHI): Assessing the social–ecological status of the Baltic Sea. People and Nature 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
| | - Julia Stewart Lowndes
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
| | - Jennifer R. Griffiths
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
- Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife Olympia WA USA
| | | | - Andrea De Cervo
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
| | - Andrea Belgrano
- Institute of Marine Research Department of Aquatic Resources Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Lysekil Sweden
- Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment (SIME) University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden
| | | | - Vivi Fleming
- Finnish Environment Institute SYKE Helsinki Finland
| | - Melanie Frazier
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
| | - Stefan Neuenfeldt
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
| | | | - Henn Ojaveer
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources Technical University of Denmark Lyngby Denmark
- Pärnu College University of Tartu Pärnu Estonia
| | - Jens Olsson
- Institute of Coastal Research Department of Aquatic Resources Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Öregrund Sweden
| | | | - Martin Quaas
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐Leipzig Leipzig Germany
| | | | - Anna Sobek
- Department of Environmental Science Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
| | | | | | - Benjamin S. Halpern
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
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7
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Griffiths JR, Kadin M, Nascimento FJA, Tamelander T, Törnroos A, Bonaglia S, Bonsdorff E, Brüchert V, Gårdmark A, Järnström M, Kotta J, Lindegren M, Nordström MC, Norkko A, Olsson J, Weigel B, Žydelis R, Blenckner T, Niiranen S, Winder M. The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:2179-2196. [PMID: 28132408 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2016] [Revised: 12/22/2016] [Accepted: 01/06/2017] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer R Griffiths
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Martina Kadin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Francisco J A Nascimento
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Tobias Tamelander
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palméns väg 260, 10900, Hangö, Finland
| | - Anna Törnroos
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kavalergården 6, 2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Stefano Bonaglia
- Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Geology, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Erik Bonsdorff
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Volker Brüchert
- Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, 74242, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Marie Järnström
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Jonne Kotta
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Martin Lindegren
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kavalergården 6, 2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Marie C Nordström
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Alf Norkko
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palméns väg 260, 10900, Hangö, Finland
- Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden
| | - Jens Olsson
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, 74242, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Benjamin Weigel
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | | | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Monika Winder
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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8
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Yletyinen J, Bodin Ö, Weigel B, Nordström MC, Bonsdorff E, Blenckner T. Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 2016; 283:20152569. [PMID: 26888032 PMCID: PMC4810827 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johanna Yletyinen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Örjan Bodin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Benjamin Weigel
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
| | - Marie C Nordström
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
| | - Erik Bonsdorff
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, Turku, Finland
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9
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Weigel
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University; FI-20520 Turku Finland
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; SE-10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - Erik Bonsdorff
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University; FI-20520 Turku Finland
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10
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Abstract
Severe environmental problems documented in the Baltic Sea in the 1960s led to the 1974 creation of the Helsinki Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area. We introduce this special issue by briefly summarizing successes and failures of Baltic environmental management in the following 40 years. The loads of many polluting substances have been greatly reduced, but legacy pollution slows recovery. Top predator populations have recovered, and human exposure to potential toxins has been reduced. The cod stock has partially recovered. Nutrient loads are decreasing, but deep-water anoxia and cyanobacterial blooms remain extensive, and climate change threatens the advances made. Ecosystem-based management is the agreed principle, but in practice the various environmental problems are still handled separately, since we still lack both basic ecological knowledge and appropriate governance structures for managing them together, in a true ecosystem approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ragnar Elmgren
- />Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- />Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Agneta Andersson
- />Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
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11
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Blenckner T, Österblom H, Larsson P, Andersson A, Elmgren R. Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges. Ambio 2015; 44 Suppl 3:507-515. [PMID: 26022332 PMCID: PMC4447697 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thorsten Blenckner
- />Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Henrik Österblom
- />Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Per Larsson
- />Institute of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden
| | - Agneta Andersson
- />Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Ragnar Elmgren
- />Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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12
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Blenckner T, Llope M, Möllmann C, Voss R, Quaas MF, Casini M, Lindegren M, Folke C, Chr Stenseth N. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures. Proc Biol Sci 2015; 282:20142809. [PMID: 25694626 PMCID: PMC4345453 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2014] [Accepted: 01/19/2015] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
| | - Marcos Llope
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Cádiz, Puerto Pesquero, Muelle de Levante, Cadiz 11006, Spain Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Sciences, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Grosse Elbstrasse 133, Hamburg 22767, Germany
| | - Rudi Voss
- Department of Economics, Christian Albrechts Universität zu Kiel, Olshausenstraße 40, Kiel 24118, Germany
| | - Martin F Quaas
- Department of Economics, Christian Albrechts Universität zu Kiel, Olshausenstraße 40, Kiel 24118, Germany
| | - Michele Casini
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Turistgatan 5, Lysekil 45330, Sweden
| | - Martin Lindegren
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Castle, Charlottenlund 2920, Denmark
| | - Carl Folke
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, PO Box 50005, Stockholm 104 05, Sweden
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
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Conversi A, Dakos V, Gårdmark A, Ling S, Folke C, Mumby PJ, Greene C, Edwards M, Blenckner T, Casini M, Pershing A, Möllmann C. A holistic view of marine regime shifts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130279. [PMCID: PMC4247413 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandra Conversi
- Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council of Italy, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc Pozzuolo, Lerici, La Spezia 19032, Italy
- Centre for Marine and Coastal Policy, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Vasilis Dakos
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Américo Vespucio s/n, Sevilla 41092, Spain
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Coastal Research, Skolgatan 6, Öregrund 742 42, Sweden
| | - Scott Ling
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, HOBART TAS 7001, Tasmania
| | - Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, PO Box 50005, Stockholm 104 05, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
| | - Peter J. Mumby
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Charles Greene
- Ocean Resources and Ecosystems Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, NY, USA
| | - Martin Edwards
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
| | - Michele Casini
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Turistgatan 5, Lysekil 45330, Sweden
| | - Andrew Pershing
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 350 Commercial Street, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Grosse Elbstrasse 133, Hamburg 22767, Germany
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14
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Rocha J, Yletyinen J, Biggs R, Blenckner T, Peterson G. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130273. [PMCID: PMC4247408 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Rocha
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J. Yletyinen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
- Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER), Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - R. Biggs
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Studies in Complexity, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - T. Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
- Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER), Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G. Peterson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
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Downing AS, Hajdu S, Hjerne O, Otto SA, Blenckner T, Larsson U, Winder M. Zooming in on size distribution patterns underlying species coexistence in Baltic Sea phytoplankton. Ecol Lett 2014; 17:1219-27. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2014] [Revised: 03/17/2014] [Accepted: 06/17/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- A. S. Downing
- Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Frescati Backe 10691 Stockholm Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Kräftriket 2B 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - S. Hajdu
- Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Frescati Backe 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - O. Hjerne
- Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Frescati Backe 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - S. A. Otto
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Kräftriket 2B 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - T. Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm University Kräftriket 2B 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - U. Larsson
- Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Frescati Backe 10691 Stockholm Sweden
| | - M. Winder
- Department of Ecology Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Frescati Backe 10691 Stockholm Sweden
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16
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Niiranen S, Yletyinen J, Tomczak MT, Blenckner T, Hjerne O, Mackenzie BR, Müller-Karulis B, Neumann T, Meier HEM. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web. Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:3327-42. [PMID: 23818413 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2013] [Accepted: 05/30/2013] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
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Tomczak MT, Heymans JJ, Yletyinen J, Niiranen S, Otto SA, Blenckner T. Ecological network indicators of ecosystem status and change in the Baltic Sea. PLoS One 2013; 8:e75439. [PMID: 24116045 PMCID: PMC3792121 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2013] [Accepted: 08/15/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Johanna J. Heymans
- Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunbeg, Oban, United Kingdom
| | - Johanna Yletyinen
- Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER), Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Saskia A. Otto
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Osterblom H, Merrie A, Metian M, Boonstra WJ, Blenckner T, Watson JR, Rykaczewski RR, Ota Y, Sarmiento JL, Christensen V, Schluter M, Birnbaum S, Gustafsson BG, Humborg C, Morth CM, Muller-Karulis B, Tomczak MT, Troell M, Folke C. Modeling Social--Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems. Bioscience 2013. [DOI: 10.1093/bioscience/63.9.735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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Gårdmark A, Lindegren M, Neuenfeldt S, Blenckner T, Heikinheimo O, Müller-Karulis B, Niiranen S, Tomczak MT, Aro E, Wikström A, Möllmann C. Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources. Ecol Appl 2013; 23:742-54. [PMID: 23865226 DOI: 10.1890/12-0267.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Gårdmark
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Coastal Research, Skolgatan 6, SE-742 42 Oregrund, Sweden.
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Abstract
Models that can project ecosystem dynamics under changing environmental conditions are in high demand. The application of such models, however, requires model validation together with analyses of model uncertainties, which are both often overlooked. We carried out a simplified model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on an Ecopath with Ecosim food-web model of the Baltic Proper (BaltProWeb) and found the model sensitive to both variations in the input data of pre-identified key groups and environmental forcing. Model uncertainties grew particularly high in future climate change scenarios. For example, cod fishery recommendations that resulted in viable stocks in the original model failed after data uncertainties were introduced. In addition, addressing the trophic control dynamics produced by the food-web model proved as a useful tool for both model validation, and for studying the food-web function. These results indicate that presenting model uncertainties is necessary to alleviate ecological surprises in marine ecosystem management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susa Niiranen
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Olle Hjerne
- />Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maciej T. Tomczak
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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21
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MacKenzie BR, Meier HEM, Lindegren M, Neuenfeldt S, Eero M, Blenckner T, Tomczak MT, Niiranen S. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation. Ambio 2012; 41:626-36. [PMID: 22926884 PMCID: PMC3428476 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian R. MacKenzie
- />Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Aqua), Charlottenlund Castle, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - H. E. Markus Meier
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Martin Lindegren
- />National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Aqua), Charlottenlund Castle, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Stefan Neuenfeldt
- />National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Aqua), Charlottenlund Castle, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Margit Eero
- />National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Aqua), Charlottenlund Castle, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maciej T. Tomczak
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Gustafsson BG, Schenk F, Blenckner T, Eilola K, Meier HEM, Müller-Karulis B, Neumann T, Ruoho-Airola T, Savchuk OP, Zorita E. Reconstructing the development of Baltic sea eutrophication 1850-2006. Ambio 2012; 41:534-48. [PMID: 22926877 PMCID: PMC3428479 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0318-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo G. Gustafsson
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Frederik Schenk
- />Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
| | | | - Kari Eilola
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71 V Frölunda, Sweden
| | - H. E. Markus Meier
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | | | - Thomas Neumann
- />Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestr. 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
| | - Tuija Ruoho-Airola
- />Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Oleg P. Savchuk
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Eduardo Zorita
- />Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
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Casini M, Blenckner T, Möllmann C, Gårdmark A, Lindegren M, Llope M, Kornilovs G, Plikshs M, Stenseth NC. Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2012; 109:8185-9. [PMID: 22505739 PMCID: PMC3361447 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1113286109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a "true sink" habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michele Casini
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, 54330 Lysekil, Sweden.
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Tomczak M, Niiranen S, Hjerne O, Blenckner T. Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling. Ecol Modell 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Nyström M, Norström AV, Blenckner T, de la Torre-Castro M, Eklöf JS, Folke C, Österblom H, Steneck RS, Thyresson M, Troell M. Confronting Feedbacks of Degraded Marine Ecosystems. Ecosystems 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-012-9530-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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Håkanson L, Blenckner T, Malmaeus J. New, general methods to define the depth separating surface water from deep water, outflow and internal loading for mass-balance models for lakes. Ecol Modell 2004. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.09.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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