Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer

Risk-reduction mastectomy: clinical issues and research needs

Risk-reduction mastectomy (RRM), also known as bilateral prophylactic mastectomy, is a controversial clinical option for women who are at increased risk of breast cancer. High-risk women, including women with a strong family history of breast cancer and BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, have several clinical options: risk-reduction surgery (bilateral mastectomy and bilateral oophorectomy), surveillance (mammography, clinical breast examination, and breast self-examination), and chemoprevention (tamoxifen). We review research in a number of areas central to our understanding of RRM, including recent data on 1) the effectiveness of RRM in reducing breast cancer risk, 2) the perception of RRM among women at increased risk and health-care providers, 3) the decision-making process for follow-up care of women at high risk, and 4) satisfaction and psychological status after surgery. We suggest areas of future research to better guide high-risk women and their health-care providers in the decision-making process.

Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM): a tool for performing economic evaluations of cancer control interventions

This paper describes the Population Health Model (POHEM) developed by Statistics Canada and shows its usefulness in the evaluation of cancer control interventions and policy decision-making. Models of the costs of diagnosis and treatment of lung and breast cancer were developed and incorporated into POHEM. Then, POHEM was used to evaluate the economic impact of chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer; reduced length of hospital stay following breast cancer surgery; and the provision of preventive tamoxifen to women at high risk of breast cancer. A lung cancer chemotherapy treatment decision framework was developed to rank order currently available chemotherapy regimens according to relative cost-effectiveness and cost-utility. Reducing post-surgical breast cancer hospitalisation with optimal home care support could produce major healthcare savings. However, the provision of preventive tamoxifen was estimated to have no population health benefit. This paper demonstrates that POHEM is an effective tool for performing economic evaluations of cancer control interventions and to inform healthcare policy decisions.

Chemoprevention for high-risk women: tamoxifen and beyond

The demonstration by the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast Project (NSABP) that 5 years of tamoxifen therapy is associated with an approximate 50% reduction in breast cancer incidence in high-risk women was a milestone in breast cancer prevention. Because tamoxifen is associated with increased risk of side-effects such as hot flashes, menstrual abnormalities, uterine cancer, and thromboembolic phenomena, its use will not be advisable or acceptable for all high-risk women. Women over 50 years of age appear to be at highest risk for serious adverse events, such as uterine cancer and thromboembolic phenomena. Individuals in whom tamoxifen-associated breast cancer risk reduction appears to outweigh risk of serious side-effects include women with prior in situ or estrogen receptor (ER)-positive invasive cancer, atypical hyperplasia, and/or women ages 35-49 with a calculated Gail 5-year risk of > or =1.7%, hysterectomized women aged 50 and older with a 5-year Gail risk of > or =2.5%, and nonhysterectomized women aged 50 and older with a 5-year Gail risk of >5.0%. It is not yet clear whether tamoxifen can reduce breast cancer incidence in women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, although preliminary evidence favors benefit for at least those with a BRCA2 mutation. Raloxifene is a selective ER modulator with less uterine estrogen agonist activity than tamoxifen, and it is hoped that it will result in fewer uterine cancers but will be equally efficacious in reducing the risk of breast cancer. The NSABP is currently conducting a randomized study of tamoxifen versus raloxifene in high-risk postmenopausal women. Approximately one third of invasive cancers are ER negative. Tamoxifen does not reduce the incidence of ER-negative cancers, nor does it appear to be effective in preventing the appearance of one third of ER-positive cancers. Priorities in prevention research are to develop (a) biomarkers to refine short-term risk assessments based on epidemiologic models, (b) biomarkers predictive of response to specific classes of preventive agents, (c) drugs with fewer side-effects and/or effective in ER-negative or ER-positive tamoxifen-resistant precancerous disease, and (d) efficient clinical trial models to assess new agent efficacy. Breast intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN) may be sampled by minimally invasive techniques and is an attractive short-term risk biomarker. Molecular abnormalities observed in IEN may be used to select potential agents for testing/therapy, and modulation of these abnormalities may be used in phase I trials to select appropriate doses and in phase II trials to assess response. Breast density volume and certain serum markers such as insulin-like growth factor-1 are also being studied as potential risk and response biomarkers. Reversal or prevention of advanced IEN as well as modulation of other risk biomarkers in randomized phase II and phase III trials is being evaluated as a means of more efficiently evaluating prevention drugs in the future. A number of agents are being developed that target molecular abnormalities in IEN, have fewer or different side effects than tamoxifen, and may be effective in ER-negative or tamoxifen-resistant disease.

Menopause, hormone replacement therapy and cancer

OBJECTIVE

To comparatively review available evidence on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and cancer.

METHODS

Qualitative literature review.

RESULTS

Most potential favorable and adverse effects on cancer risk of HRT are restricted to current users. On the basis of observational epidemiological data, the RR of breast cancer is moderately elevated in current and recent HRT users, and increases by about 2.3% per year with longer duration of use, but the effect drops after cessation and largely, if not totally, disappears after about 5 years. Unopposed estrogen use is strongly related to endometrial cancer risk, but cyclic combined oestrogen-progestin treatment appears to largely or totally reduce this side effect, if progestin are used for at least 14 days per cycle. However, combined HRT may be associated with higher risk of breast cancer as compared to unopposed estrogens. HRT has been inversely related to colorectal cancer, although the issue of causal relation remains open to discussion. No consistent association was reported for ovarian, liver, other digestive or lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Recommendations for prolonged HRT use must be considered on an individual basis, taking into account the presence of other risk factors mainly for breast cancer, such as family history of breast cancer or a personal history of benign breast disease, as well as individual risk for other chronic diseases.

Biomonitoring of urinary tamoxifen and its metabolites from breast cancer patients using nonaqueous capillary electrophoresis with electrospray mass spectrometry

Tamoxifen is an antiestrogen drug used to treat breast cancer. We have extracted tamoxifen and several of its metabolites from urine of patients with both metastatic (stage IV) and locally confined (stages I, II, and III) breast cancer. Analysis of these metabolites was performed by nonaqueous capillary electrophoresis with electrospray-mass spectrometry. Peak heights from extracted ion current electropherograms of the metabolites were used to establish a metabolic profile for each patient. We demonstrate substantial variation among patient profiles, statistically significant differences in the amount of urinary tamoxifen N-oxide found in stages I, II, and III compared to stage IV breast cancer patients, and statistically significant differences in the amount of 3,4-dihydroxytamoxifen found in progressors compared to nonprogressors with metastatic (stage IV) cancer.

Patient reluctance toward tamoxifen use for breast cancer primary prevention

BACKGROUND

The National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) P-1 trial demonstrated that tamoxifen reduces the incidence of new breast cancers by 49% in women at increased risk for breast cancer development. Tamoxifen does have side effects, however, including marginally increased risks of endometrial cancer and thromboembolic events. In this study, women at increased risk for breast cancer development were offered tamoxifen. Their knowledge of tamoxifen as a chemopreventive agent was assessed, and factors influencing their acceptance of tamoxifen and willingness to take it were determined.

METHODS

Forty-three patients were identified who qualified to take tamoxifen for primary prevention. Patients qualified by having at least a 1.7% 5-year risk of developing breast cancer, the criteria for entry into the NSABP P-1 trial. Patients initially completed questionnaires designed to assess their knowledge of tamoxifen and its associated risks and benefits. Patients were then provided neutral educational sessions and literature delineating the actual risks and benefits of tamoxifen. Subsequently, patients' decisions regarding taking tamoxifen were reassessed.

RESULTS

Mean patient age was 52.8 years, with a range of 39 to 74 years. Ten patients (23.2%) qualified based on the presence of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS), seven patients (16.3%) qualified based on increased risk secondary to age >60 years, and 26 patients (60.5%) age range 35 to 59 qualified based on risk profiles demonstrating significantly increased risk. Of the total 43 patients, two (4.7%) elected to start taking tamoxifen. Fifteen patients (34.8%) declined immediately, and 26 patients (60.5%) were undecided initially but ultimately declined. Educational sessions did not influence patients' decisions. Fear of side effects, including endometrial cancer, thromboembolic events, and menopausal symptoms, was the most commonly cited reason for declining to take tamoxifen.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the vast majority of patients at increased risk for breast cancer perceived that the risks of taking tamoxifen outweighed the benefits and declined to take it.

National Institutes of Health Consensus Development Conference Statement: adjuvant therapy for breast cancer, November 1-3, 2000

OBJECTIVE

Our goal was to provide health-care providers, patients, and the general public with an assessment of currently available data regarding the use of adjuvant therapy for breast cancer.

PARTICIPANTS

The participants included a non-Federal, non-advocate, 14-member panel representing the fields of oncology, radiology, surgery, pathology, statistics, public health, and health policy as well as patient representatives. In addition, 30 experts in medical oncology, radiation oncology, biostatistics, epidemiology, surgical oncology, and clinical trials presented data to the panel and to a conference audience of 1000.

EVIDENCE

The literature was searched with the use of MEDLINE(TM) for January 1995 through July 2000, and an extensive bibliography of 2230 references was provided to the panel. Experts prepared abstracts for their conference presentations with relevant citations from the literature. Evidence from randomized clinical trials and evidence from prospective studies were given precedence over clinical anecdotal experience.

CONSENSUS PROCESS

The panel, answering predefined questions, developed its conclusions based on the evidence presented in open forum and the scientific literature. The panel composed a draft statement, which was read in its entirety and circulated to the experts and the audience for comment. Thereafter, the panel resolved conflicting recommendations and released a revised statement at the end of the conference. The panel finalized the revisions within a few weeks after the conference. The draft statement was made available on the World Wide Web immediately after its release at the conference and was updated with the panel's final revisions. The statement is available at http://consensus.nih.gov.

CONCLUSIONS

The panel concludes that decisions regarding adjuvant hormonal therapy should be based on the presence of hormone receptor protein in tumor tissues. Adjuvant hormonal therapy should be offered only to women whose tumors express hormone receptor protein. Because adjuvant polychemotherapy improves survival, it should be recommended to the majority of women with localized breast cancer regardless of lymph node, menopausal, or hormone receptor status. The inclusion of anthracyclines in adjuvant chemotherapy regimens produces a small but statistically significant improvement in survival over non-anthracycline-containing regimens. Available data are currently inconclusive regarding the use of taxanes in adjuvant treatment of lymph node-positive breast cancer. The use of adjuvant dose-intensive chemotherapy regimens in high-risk breast cancer and of taxanes in lymph node-negative breast cancer should be restricted to randomized trials. Ongoing studies evaluating these treatment strategies should be supported to determine if such strategies have a role in adjuvant treatment. Studies to date have included few patients older than 70 years. There is a critical need for trials to evaluate the role of adjuvant chemotherapy in these women. There is evidence that women with a high risk of locoregional tumor recurrence after mastectomy benefit from postoperative radiotherapy. This high-risk group includes women with four or more positive lymph nodes or an advanced primary cancer. Currently, the role of postmastectomy radiotherapy for patients with one to three positive lymph nodes remains uncertain and should be tested in a randomized controlled trial. Individual patients differ in the importance they place on the risks and benefits of adjuvant treatments. Quality of life needs to be evaluated in selected randomized clinical trials to examine the impact of the major acute and long-term side effects of adjuvant treatments, particularly premature menopause, weight gain, mild memory loss, and fatigue. Methods to support shared decision-making between patients and their physicians have been successful in trials; they need to be tailored for diverse populations and should be tested for broader dissemination.

Cerebral embolism and hormone replacement therapy

Few studies have focused on the relationship between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for postmenopausal women or those with breast cancer and the occurrence of cerebral embolism. Results are conflicting as to whether there is a link between the two. We describe three patients who experienced cerebral embolism during HRT. A 73-year-old woman had a transient ischemic attack (TIA) 6 years prior to the present admission. She then took HRT oestrogen plus medroxyprogesterone acetate for about 6 years. The HRT had been prescribed by a gynaecologist for amelioration of postmenopausal symptoms. Six years after beginning HRT, she experienced sudden onset left hemiparesis due to cerebral embolism. Two other patients had been taking HRT for breast cancers. One, a 47-year-old woman, had taken medroxyprogesterone acetate for more than one year, for recurrence of breast cancer. She had developed sudden complete left hemiparesis due to an embolism at the carotid bifurcation. The other patient, a 72-year-old woman who was taking tamoxifen citrate for prevention of breast cancer relapse, experienced cerebral embolism just 2 months after beginning tamoxifen. The risk of cerebral embolism in those on HRT should be emphasized, along with the beneficial effects in terms of postmenopausal symptoms and prevention of breast cancer recurrence.

Identifying and managing hereditary risk of breast and ovarian cancer

In the past, all women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer were considered to be at increased risk of cancer themselves. The discovery of BRCA1 and BRCA2 demonstrated that susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer can be inherited by women as a single-gene autosomal dominant disorder. For such women, evaluation of family history is an important screening tool to identify the possibility of hereditary cancer risk but only genetic testing can provide definitive, individualized risk assessment. Women who have inherited mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 now have several medical management options to address their increased risk of cancer. A well-educated community of health care providers and patients can use hereditary risk assessment, including genetic testing, to improve health care.

New drugs in breast cancer

The 1990s have seen the emergence of several classes of new efficacious drugs which have become established as treatment for breast cancer. Thus, aromatase inhibitors, taxanes and herceptin have all emerged as potentially valuable therapeutic agents for treatment of advanced breast cancer. Bisphosphonates have found a place in preventing skeletal complications in breast cancer patients with bone metastasis. Tamoxifen has a new role in chemoprevention in patients at high risk of breast cancer. This paper summarises these results.

Molecular targets for breast cancer therapy and prevention

The recent completion of the human genome sequence has raised great hopes for the discovery of new breast cancer therapies based on newly-discovered genes linked to breast cancer development and progression. Here we describe breast cancer therapies that have emerged from gene-based scientific efforts over the past 20 years and that are now approved for clinical testing or treatment.

Breast cancer risk assessment in indigent women at a public hospital

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to estimate the 5-year breast cancer risk in indigent women presenting to the gynecology clinic at a public hospital and to determine whether routine use of the computerized Gail model for screening in this population identifies individuals at increased risk.

METHODS

A prospective study was performed over 1-year period (7/99-7/00) of women presenting to the gynecology and gynecologic oncology clinics at a public hospital. All women ages 35-60 years with no personal history of breast cancer were offered testing utilizing the computerized Gail model provided by the National Cancer Institute. Age, race, age at menarche, age at first live birth, number of first-degree relatives with breast cancer, number of breast biopsies, and number of breast biopsies diagnosed as atypical hyperplasia were documented. A calculated 5-year risk > or =1.67% was considered high-risk.

RESULTS

In all, 319 women enrolled, 121 (38%) with a history of gynecologic cancer and 198 (62%) without. The mean age was 46.9 years (range 35-60), and 28 (8.8%) patients had at least one first-degree relative with breast cancer. Ethnicity included 206 (65%) African American, 52 (16%) Caucasian, 45 (14%) Hispanic, and 16 (5%) oriental. Eight (2.5%) women had a 5-year risk > or =1.67%. The mean 5-year risk for all patients was 0.68% (0.55% for African American versus 0.90% for Caucasian/other, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Estimating 5-year breast cancer risk using the Gail model in indigent women may identify individuals at increased risk. Compared to other patients, African American women appeared to have a lower estimated 5-year risk according to the currently available model. The routine utilization of the Gail model deserves further investigation in the indigent minority population.

From adjuvant therapy to breast cancer prevention: BCPT and STAR

The continued widespread prevalence of breast cancer supports placing a high priority on research aimed at its primary prevention, particularly among women who are at increased risk for developing this disease. The suggestion of potential agents for the primary chemoprevention of breast cancer evolved out of the treatment setting. Extensive experience with tamoxifen, a first-generation selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) showing efficacy, first, in the treatment of advanced breast cancer and, subsequently, as adjuvant therapy for early stage disease established the safety of this agent. Cumulative data from multiple adjuvant studies documented the efficacy of tamoxifen in reducing second primary breast cancers in the contralateral breast, supporting its potential as a chemopreventive agent for breast cancer. The safety and second primary data on tamoxifen, together with extensive information on its pharmacokinetics, metabolism, and antitumor effects, as well as its potentially beneficial effects on lipid metabolism and osteoporosis, led the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) to select tamoxifen for testing in the first prospective randomized phase III trial of the efficacy of a chemopreventive agent for preventing breast cancer in women at increased risk of the disease. Accordingly, in 1992 the NSABP started the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (P-1) in which 13,388 women > or = 35 years of age who were at increased risk of breast cancer according to Gail model risk factors [family history, age, and personal history (i.e., age at first birth, age at menarche, previous breast biopsies)] were randomized to tamoxifen 20 mg/day or placebo for 5 years. Through 69 months of follow-up tamoxifen reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer, primarily estrogen receptor-positive tumors, by 49% (two-sided p < 0.00001). Tamoxifen reduced the risk of noninvasive breast cancer by 50% (two-sided p < 0.002). In addition, tamoxifen reduced fractures of the hip, radius, and spine, but it had no effect on the rate of ischemic heart disease. As previously shown, the rates of endometrial cancer and vascular events increased with tamoxifen. With the P-1 results establishing tamoxifen as the standard of care for the primary chemoprevention of breast cancer in high-risk women, concern over the side effects of tamoxifen has prompted a continuing search for an agent that displays a more desirable efficacy/toxicity profile. Raloxifene, a second-generation SERM approved for the prevention of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women, displays antiestrogenic properties in the breast and possibly the endometrium, and estrogenic effects in the bone and on the lipid profile, suggesting it as a candidate for comparison with the chemopreventive standard, tamoxifen. Raloxifene will be compared to tamoxifen in an equivalency trial, the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) NSABP P-2, which began in July 1999 at almost 500 centers in North America. The plan is to randomize 22,000 postmenopausal women > or = 35 years of age at increased risk of breast cancer by Gail criteria to tamoxifen 20 mg/day or raloxifene 60 mg/day for 5 years. Study endpoints include invasive and noninvasive breast cancer, cardiovascular disease, endometrial cancer, bone fractures, and vascular events.

Ethnic differences in cancer mortality trends in the US, 1950-1992

OBJECTIVE

To describe long-term mortality trends by ethnicity, sex, and age for selected cancers and to assess the effect of age-adjustment using different standard populations on rate ratios and rate differences comparing black to white cancer mortality.

DESIGN

Mortality rates for selected cancers were obtained from published reports of the Vital Statistics of the United States (1950-1992). All ethnic- and sex-specific cancer rates were directly age-adjusted to the total 1970 US standard population and to a subset of the 1970 US standard population 40 years and older.

RESULTS

Over a 42-year period, lung cancer mortality increased in all population subgroups. Colorectal cancer mortality declined in whites, but increased in blacks. Prostate cancer mortality increased slightly in white men, but dramatically increased in black men. Breast cancer mortality stabilized in white women, but increased markedly in black women. Uterine cancer mortality declined for both ethnicities, while ovarian cancer mortality rates increased for both ethnicities. As expected, the ratios of the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates comparing blacks to whites were the same regardless of the age structure used as the standard population. In contrast, the differences in the age-adjusted rates between blacks and whites were greater when the age-truncated standard population was used.

CONCLUSIONS

There are unexplained ethnic differences in the long-term mortality trends of selected cancers. Of particular concern are the increasing death rates in black individuals from colorectal, prostate, breast, and ovarian cancers. Since almost all deaths from these cancers occur in persons over 40, age-adjustment using an age-truncated standard population that includes only those age groups at risk should be considered, particularly when the question to be addressed is one dealing with the impact of a characteristic, such as ethnicity or sex, on mortality risk.

Results and implications of the Royal Marsden and other tamoxifen chemoprevention trials: an alternative view

At the time of the release of the findings of the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT), early interim results from two smaller European studies were also released. These smaller studies included one from the Royal Marsden (RM) Hospital in London, England, and another from the Italian National Cancer Institute. Since then, there has been much discussion about the relevance of the interim findings from the European studies and the likely reason for the failure of these studies to find a treatment effect. In some instances, the discussion has been incomplete or inconsistent with the observations from the trial. This has caused some confusion regarding the likely differences among the three studies of breast cancer prevention with tamoxifen. Recently, investigators from the RM study have published their interpretation of the reasons for the negative findings from the European studies. The discussions of the RM investigators are reviewed and used as a basis to illustrate some misconceptions regarding key differences in trial design and implementation among the BCPT and the European trials. The investigator discussions are also used to illustrate the significance of performing an appropriate benefit/risk assessment to identify women who would likely have a net beneficial effect when using tamoxifen to reduce the risk of breast cancer occurrence. Differences in terms of the characteristics of the study populations resulting in inadequate statistical power is the most likely reason for the failure to detect treatment differences in the European trials. Possible confounding due to the use of hormone replacement therapy is another reason that must be considered. Also, benefit/risk analysis indicates that tamoxifen has substantial public health potential as an approach to reduce breast cancer incidence and the physical and mental morbidity associated with this disease. The drug cannot be used indiscriminately due to the potential side effects, but benefit/risk assessment methodology can be used to identify substantial numbers of women in whom treatment would provide a net beneficial effect.

Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention

BACKGROUND

Women and their clinicians are increasingly encouraged to use risk estimates derived from statistical models, primarily that of Gail et al., to aid decision making regarding potential prevention options for breast cancer, including chemoprevention with tamoxifen.

METHODS

We evaluated both the goodness of fit of the Gail et al. model 2 that predicts the risk of developing invasive breast cancer specifically and its discriminatory accuracy at the individual level in the Nurses' Health Study. We began with a cohort of 82 109 white women aged 45-71 years in 1992 and applied the model of Gail et al. to these women over a 5-year follow-up period to estimate a 5-year risk of invasive breast cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

The model fit well in the total sample (ratio of expected [E] to observed [O] numbers of cases = 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 0.99). Underprediction was slightly greater for younger women (<60 years), but in most age and risk factor strata, E/O ratios were close to 1.0. The model fit equally well (E/O ratio = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.99) in a subset of women reporting recent screening (i.e., within 1 year before the baseline); among women with an estimated 5-year risk of developing invasive breast cancer of 1.67% or greater, the E/O ratio was 1.04 (95% CI = 0.96 to 1.12). The concordance statistic, which indicates discriminatory accuracy, for the Gail et al. model 2 when used to estimate 5-year risk was 0.58 (95% CI = 0.56 to 0.60). Only 3.3% of the 1354 cases of breast cancer observed in the cohort arose among women who fell into age-risk strata expected to have statistically significant net health benefits from prophylactic tamoxifen use.

CONCLUSIONS

The Gail et al. model 2 fit well in this sample in terms of predicting numbers of breast cancer cases in specific risk factor strata but had modest discriminatory accuracy at the individual level. This finding has implications for use of the model in clinical counseling of individual women.

The privatization of risk

The privatization, or individualization, of risk factor knowledge has been largely responsible for a rising tide of criticism of epidemiology. The current debate seems polarized into 2 sides, those who support and those who attack "risk factor" epidemiology. This commentary aims to reinvigorate some of Geoffrey Rose's central arguments and show that this debate may miss a key point: a risk factor is a probabilistic concept that applies to an aggregate of individuals, not to a specific individual. Risk factor knowledge compels those in public health to seek actions that shift population distributions of these factors and, to do so, to understand their social, economic, and political determinants. The author links Rose's qualitative distinction between the causes of cases and the causes of incidence to an examination of the conceptual and quantitative limits of "individual risk" estimation. The attempt to predict individuals' futures on the basis of risk factor profile is especially prominent now with breast cancer. The author suggests reasons why a policy promoting private decision making about risk, while likely ineffective from a population standpoint, is viewed as the only feasible primary prevention option against this disease.

Incidence of multiple primary cancers in a cohort of women diagnosed with breast cancer in southeast England

Among women in the Thames Cancer Registry database with a first breast cancer diagnosed between 1961-1995 observed numbers of subsequent cancers were compared with expected numbers and standardized incidence ratios were calculated. The occurrence of breast cancers subsequent to cancers at other sites was also examined. Women diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 had significantly elevated risks for 9 cancer sites namely, oesophagus, stomach, lung, bone, connective tissue, breast, corpus uteri, ovary and myeloid leukaemia compared with 2 sites (corpus uteri and myeloid leukaemia) in women diagnosed at age 50 and above. Some of these associations are consistent with the effects of known inherited cancer susceptibility genes, shared environmental factors, or therapy.

Breast cancer chemoprevention: beyond tamoxifen

A large number of new potential chemoprevention agents are available that target molecular abnormalities found in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative and/or ER-positive precancerous breast tissue and have side effect profiles that differ from tamoxifen. Classes of agents currently undergoing evaluation in clinical prevention trials or those for which testing is planned in the near future include new selective ER modulators, aromatase inactivators/inhibitors, gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonists, monoterpenes, isoflavones, retinoids, rexinoids, vitamin D derivatives, and inhibitors of tyrosine kinase, cyclooxygenase-2, and polyamine synthesis. New clinical testing models will use morphological and molecular biomarkers to select candidates at highest short-term risk, to predict the response to a particular class of agent, and to assess the response in phase II prevention trials. If validated, morphological and molecular markers could eventually replace cancer incidence as an indicator of efficacy in future phase III trials.

Neuroprotection by estradiol

This review highlights recent evidence from clinical and basic science studies supporting a role for estrogen in neuroprotection. Accumulated clinical evidence suggests that estrogen exposure decreases the risk and delays the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia, and may also enhance recovery from traumatic neurological injury such as stroke. Recent basic science studies show that not only does exogenous estradiol decrease the response to various forms of insult, but the brain itself upregulates both estrogen synthesis and estrogen receptor expression at sites of injury. Thus, our view of the role of estrogen in neural function must be broadened to include not only its function in neuroendocrine regulation and reproductive behaviors, but also to include a direct protective role in response to degenerative disease or injury. Estrogen may play this protective role through several routes. Key among these are estrogen dependent alterations in cell survival, axonal sprouting, regenerative responses, enhanced synaptic transmission and enhanced neurogenesis. Some of the mechanisms underlying these effects are independent of the classically defined nuclear estrogen receptors and involve unidentified membrane receptors, direct modulation of neurotransmitter receptor function, or the known anti-oxidant activities of estrogen. Other neuroprotective effects of estrogen do depend on the classical nuclear estrogen receptor, through which estrogen alters expression of estrogen responsive genes that play a role in apoptosis, axonal regeneration, or general trophic support. Yet another possibility is that estrogen receptors in the membrane or cytoplasm alter phosphorylation cascades through direct interactions with protein kinases or that estrogen receptor signaling may converge with signaling by other trophic molecules to confer resistance to injury. Although there is clear evidence that estradiol exposure can be deleterious to some neuronal populations, the potential clinical benefits of estrogen treatment for enhancing cognitive function may outweigh the associated central and peripheral risks. Exciting and important avenues for future investigation into the protective effects of estrogen include the optimal ligand and doses that can be used clinically to confer benefit without undue risk, modulation of neurotrophin and neurotrophin receptor expression, interaction of estrogen with regulated cofactors and coactivators that couple estrogen receptors to basal transcriptional machinery, interactions of estrogen with other survival and regeneration promoting factors, potential estrogenic effects on neuronal replenishment, and modulation of phenotypic choices by neural stem cells.

Risk models in genetic epidemiology

Advances in the identification and treatment of genetically transmitted diseases have lead to an increased need for reliable estimates of genetic susceptibility risk. These estimates are used in clinic settings to identify individuals at increased risk of being a carrier of a disease susceptibility allele as well as to define the probability of developing a particular disease given one is a carrier. Accurate assessment of these probabilities is extremely important given the implications for medical decision making including the identification of patients who might benefit from genetic counselling or from entry into clinical trials. A wide range of risk models has been proposed including those that utilize logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, log-incidence models, and Bayesian modelling. The specific data used to create the various risk models varies by disease and may include molecular, epidemiologic, and clinical information although, in general, family history remains the primary variable of interest, particularly for those diseases for which a susceptibility allele(s) has yet to be identified. When permitted by sample size, researchers also attempt to measure the effect of any gene-environment interaction. In this paper we give an overview of the various definitions of risk as well as several of the more frequently used methods of risk estimation in genetic epidemiology at present. In addition, the means by which different methods are able to provide a measure of error or uncertainty associated with a given risk estimate will be discussed. Applications to risk modelling for breast cancer are given the disease for which risk assessment has probably been most extensively defined.

Estrogens and women's health: interrelation of coronary heart disease, breast cancer and osteoporosis

The determinants of blood levels of estrogen, estrogen metabolites, and relation to receptors and post-transitional effects are the likely primary cause of breast cancer. Very high risk women for breast cancer can now be identified by measuring bone mineral density and hormone levels. These high risk women have rates of breast cancer similar to risk of myocardial infarction. They are candidates for SERM therapies to reduce risk of breast cancer. The completion of the Women's Health Initiative and other such trials will likely provide a definite association of risk and benefit of both estrogen alone and estrogen-progesterone therapy, coronary heart disease, osteoporotic fracture, and breast cancer. The potential intervention of hormone replacement therapy, obesity, or weight gain and increased atherogenic lipoproteinemia may be of concern and confound the results of clinical trials. Estrogens, clearly, are important in the risk of bone loss and osteoporotic fracture. Obesity is the primary determinant of postmenopausal estrogen levels and reduced risk of fracture. Weight reduction may increase rates of bone loss and fracture. Clinical trials that evaluate weight loss should monitor effects on bone. The beneficial addition of increased physical activity, higher dose of calcium or vitamin D, or use of bone reabsorption drugs in coordination with weight loss should be evaluated. Any therapy that raises blood estrogen or metabolite activity and decreases bone loss may increase risk of breast cancer. Future clinical trials must evaluate multiple endpoints such as CHD, osteoporosis, and breast cancer within the study. The use of surrogate markers such as bone mineral density, coronary calcium, carotid intimal medial thickness and plaque, endothelial function, breast density, hormone levels and metabolites could enhance the evaluation of risk factors, genetic-environmental intervention, and new therapies.

Epidemiology, prevention, and early detection of breast cancer

Decreases in the incidence of breast cancer have not been achieved, but there is a downward trend in age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rates in the United States. Recent epidemiologic investigations continue to refine our understanding of the role of established breast cancer risk factors, such as reproductive characteristics and body mass index, and in the process advance understanding of the etiology of breast cancer. Important strides are being made in the chemoprevention of breast cancer, but clarifying the potential contributions of factors such as diet, physical activity, and cigarette smoke to the breast cancer burden is a high priority because these lifestyle behaviors also have important implications for primary prevention. The role of both environmental and endogenous exposures in breast carcinogenesis will be more clearly elucidated by studies that account for genetic polymorphisms, some of which may lead to differential susceptibility to harmful agents.

Systemic therapy

Our knowledge base on systemic therapy for breast cancer continues to expand, including further information regarding hormonal prevention in high-risk women, beneficial effects of tamoxifen in noninvasive disease, an update on primary systemic therapy, and optimization of adjuvant strategies, including data on adjuvant chemoendocrine regimens. The proper evaluation of high-dose strategies has been jeopardized by a serious episode of scientific misconduct. New data are also available on palliative options, bisphosphonates, antibody therapies, and novel targets. Data continue to evolve on the role and optimal schedules of taxanes in early-stage and advanced breast cancer. These and other important recent findings are discussed in this review article.

Update on cancer control in women

The global cancer burden in women appears to have stabilized according to the most recent estimates available although the distribution of cancer types appears to be changing with a sharp contrast between the increase in the absolute numbers of breast cancers and a decline in cervix cancers. Prospects for cancer control in women appear to be good within our current knowledge and deserve close attention. Rates of lung cancer in women are increasing substantially in many countries and seem set to overtake breast cancer as the commonest form of cancer death in women in many parts of the world. These changes are due to the effects of cigarette smoking, a habit which women widely embraced during the second half of the last century. The high levels of smoking currently in young women, which have yet to have their full impact on death rates, constitute an important hazard not only for future cancer risks but for several other important causes of death. There is strong and consistent evidence that increased consumption levels of fruit and vegetables is associated with reduced risks of many common forms of cancer including breast cancer. Although the breast is the commonest form of cancer in women in most western countries, the etiology of this disease remains elusive and preventable causes remain to be identified. Endogenous hormones also appear to have a role in cancer risk in women: oral contraceptives seem to increase slightly the risk of breast cancer in users in the use and in the immediate post-use period, but 10 years after cessation the risk again returns to that of never users. Oral contraceptive usage also appears to be protective against ovarian and endometrial cancer. The use of hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) appears to increase the risk of endometrial cancer and a positive association with breast cancer risk appears to exist. Within our current knowledge of the epidemiology of cancer in women, the most important preventive strategies would appear to be the prevention of cigarette smoking and increased dietary intake of vegetables and fruits. Screening has also shown to be effective in reducing incidence and mortality of cervix cancer and mortality from breast cancer. Although more work is needed, it is becoming clear that there could be an important role of HPV testing to further enhance cervix cancer screening. There are important variations in survival from a variety of cancers which are due to factors unrelated to the tumor behavior and that there are significant variations in survival from cancer. Reduction of these gaps could lead to a reduction in cancer mortality and contribute towards increased prospects for cancer control in women.

Primary cancer prevention trials

Great progress has been made in cancer chemoprevention during the past 2 decades. Nevertheless, the field could benefit from the experiences of investigators studying the prevention of cardiovascular disease. During the past 50 years, prevention of cardiovascular disease has gone from a dream to a reality, with major clinical impact. The trend during the last 30 years has been impressive and sustained. From 1987 to 1994, there was a sustained major decrease in age-adjusted mortality from coronary heart disease in both men (from 3.1 to 2.2 per thousand persons) and women (from 1.1 to 0.9 per thousand persons). This trend is believed to have resulted from improvements in the treatment of myocardial infarction and, more substantively, from improvements in secondary prevention. This explanation is consistent with earlier computer simulations of trends in cardiovascular mortality during the 1980s, which estimated that 25% of the declines were attributable to primary prevention and 70% were caused by reductions in risk factors or treatment. The greatest effect of primary prevention had previously been noted in the late 1960s and 1970s. Most of these important findings occurred before cholesterol-lowering drugs became widely available, so further improvements are expected. Researchers in cancer prevention should follow in the footsteps of their cardiovascular colleagues. The tools are now available to make prevention of cancer a clinical reality. As the science of prevention improves, it must be remembered that effective and efficient preventive services do not help if they are not used. It is difficult to motivate practitioners and patients to implement preventive services. Also, preventive services are often considered a luxury. Persons without health insurance and those covered by Medicaid are much more likely to be diagnosed with late-stage cancer; therefore, they are key cohorts to target for effective preventive approaches. Finally, the most effective cancer prevention program will probably use both rational drug therapy targeting specific risk factors and public health efforts to promote healthy lifestyle choices in the population at large.

Management of familial breast cancer risk

Women who are members of breast cancer families are at increased risk for breast cancer. The cloning of BRCA1 and BRCA2 has made it possible to identify mutation carriers within some of these families. Management of breast cancer risk in these families, which presents enormous challenges to patients and clinicians, is addressed. Management should begin with a full evaluation of the patient, including construction of a three-generation pedigree, ascertainment of non-genetic factors that may impact on risk, information on previous and current breast health, practice of and attitudes toward screening, and the psychosocial impact of family history on the individual. Patient priorities in risk management should be explicitly reviewed; these may include survival, cancer prevention, breast preservation, optimization of quality of life or minimization of disruption of day-to-day activities. Approaches to risk management involve screening (usually considered the mainstay), anti-estrogens, prophylactic surgery and/or lifestyle modifications. Specific gene therapy may become available in the future. Management decisions should be individualized to reflect risk levels and patient priorities and goals, within bounds that are medically and scientifically reasonable. An explicit examination of different time-frames (1, 5, 10 years) is recommended given the rapid evolution of knowledge in this area.

Chemoprevention of breast cancer

Despite a recent trend toward improvement in the U.S. breast cancer mortality rate, breast cancer incidence (182,800 new cases anticipated in 2000) and mortality figures (over 40,800 anticipated deaths) remain the highest and second highest, respectively, of all cancers in U.S. women. In 1998, the selective-estrogen-receptor-modulator (SERM) tamoxifen achieved positive results in the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT), leading to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of tamoxifen for risk reduction in women at high risk of breast cancer (the historic first FDA approval of a cancer preventive agent). This brought about a paradigm shift in new approaches for controlling breast cancer toward pharmacologic preventive regimens, called chemoprevention. This paper presents a comprehensive clinical review of breast cancer prevention study, highlighting issues of the extensive study of tamoxifen. These issues include the record of primary tamoxifen results in several breast-cancer risk-reduction settings (primary, adjuvant, and ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]); critical secondary BCPT risk-benefit findings (including quality of life issues) and their effects on counseling patients on use of tamoxifen for prevention; ethic minorities; optimal tamoxifen dose/duration; and potential impact on mortality and other issues involved with potential net benefit to society. Other breast-cancer chemoprevention issues reviewed here include women at high genetic risk (especially BRCA1 mutation carriers); raloxifene in breast cancer prevention; other SERMs; SERM resistance; and new agents and combinations currently in development. Very recent developments involving PPAR-gamma ligands, COX-2 inhibitors, and RXR-ligands are discussed in the section on new drug development.

Selective estrogen receptor modulators in reproductive medicine and biology

Estrogen replacement therapy has significant potential benefits for postmenopausal women, such as improvement of menopausal symptoms and protection from osteoporosis, but it may also increase a woman's risk of breast cancer. Also, some women do not take hormone replacement therapy because of such undesirable side effects as breast tenderness and uterine bleeding. Therefore, there is much interest in the development of compounds that provide the benefits of estrogen replacement therapy without the risks and side effects. The selective estrogen receptor modulators make up one class of compounds with both estrogen agonist and antagonist activity. This review discusses the clinical indications, risks, benefits, and mechanisms of action of selective estrogen receptor modulators and related compounds.

Incidence of BRCA1/2 germ line alterations in a high risk cohort participating in a phase II chemoprevention trial

It is unknown what proportion of women at high risk for breast cancer, entering phase II chemoprevention trials, have BRCA1/2 alterations, and whether their initial biomarker patterns or response to preventive interventions will differ between carriers and non-carriers. As part of a 6-month phase II chemoprevention trial of diflouromethlyornithine (DFMO), high-risk subjects (family history, prior precancerous breast disease or prior breast cancer), who had random peri-areolar fine needle evidence of epithelial hyperplasia with or without atypia, were offered genetic counselling and testing at the completion of their study participation. 97% of the 119 women eligible for testing underwent BRCA1/2 gene sequencing, 3 declined. 26 (22%) of the 116 women had an alteration in BRCA1/2. Known deleterious mutations were present in 3 (3%), uncertain significance mutations in 19 (16%), and probable polymorphisms in 6 (5%). There does not appear to be a difference in initial biomarker distribution between participants with and without germ line alterations.

Future possibilities in the prevention of breast cancer: role of genetic variation in breast cancer prevention

Risk factors for breast cancer are related to endogenous hormones and reproductive events. As such, traditional cancer prevention strategies are not easily applicable. Tamoxifen and other selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) offer a new preventive strategy for some high-risk women, but have not yet been shown to be efficacious for all women. New tools to identify high-risk women are needed. One such tool is the development of a multigenic model of breast cancer susceptibility that can be used to screen women in order to identify those who carry a combination of alleles that puts them at significantly increased risk.