Longitudinal Associations Between Income Changes and Incident Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

The Dynamic Nature of the Socioeconomic Determinants of Cardiovascular Health: A Narrative Review

Despite decades of social epidemiologic research, health inequities remain pervasive and ubiquitous in Canada and elsewhere. One reason may be our use of socioeconomic measurement, which has often relied on single point-in-time exposures. To explore the extent to which researchers have incorporated dynamic socioeconomic measurement into cardiovascular health outcome evaluations, we performed a narrative review. We estimated the prevalence of socioeconomic longitudinal cardiovascular research studies that identified socioeconomic exposures at 2 or more points in time between the years of 2019 and 2023. We defined cardiovascular outcome studies as those that examined coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, heart failure, cardiac arrhythmias, cardiac death, cardiometabolic factors, transient ischemic attacks, peripheral artery disease, or hypertension. Socioeconomic exposures included individual income, neighbourhood income, intergenerational social mobility, education, occupation, insurance status, and economic security. Seven percent of socioeconomic cardiovascular outcome studies have measured socioeconomic status at 2 or more points in time throughout the follow-up period, hypothesized mechanisms by which dynamic socioeconomic measures affected outcome focused on social mobility, accumulation, and critical period theories. Insights, implications, and future directions are discussed, in which we highlight ways in which postal code data can be better used methodologically as a dynamic socioeconomic measure. Future research must incorporate dynamic socioeconomic measurement to better inform root causes, interventions, and health-system designs if health equity is to be improved.

Income variability and incident cardiovascular disease in diabetes: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Longitudinal change in income is crucial in explaining cardiovascular health inequalities. However, there is limited evidence for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with income dynamics over time among individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Using a nationally representative sample from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, 1 528 108 adults aged 30-64 with T2D and no history of CVD were included from 2009 to 2012 (mean follow-up of 7.3 years). Using monthly health insurance premium information, income levels were assessed annually for the baseline year and the four preceding years. Income variability was defined as the intraindividual standard deviation of the percent change in income over 5 years. The primary outcome was a composite event of incident fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke) using insurance claims. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated after adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

High-income variability was associated with increased CVD risk (HRhighest vs. lowest quartile 1.25, 95% CI 1.22-1.27; Ptrend < .001). Individuals who experienced an income decline (4 years ago vs. baseline) had increased CVD risk, which was particularly notable when the income decreased to the lowest level (i.e. Medical Aid beneficiaries), regardless of their initial income status. Sustained low income (i.e. lowest income quartile) over 5 years was associated with increased CVD risk (HRn = 5 years vs. n = 0 years 1.38, 95% CI 1.35-1.41; Ptrend < .0001), whereas sustained high income (i.e. highest income quartile) was associated with decreased CVD risk (HRn = 5 years vs. n = 0 years 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.72; Ptrend < .0001). Sensitivity analyses, exploring potential mediators, such as lifestyle-related factors and obesity, supported the main results.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher income variability, income declines, and sustained low income were associated with increased CVD risk. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms by which income dynamics impact CVD risk among individuals with T2D.

Social Determinants of Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Asian American Subgroups

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in the development of cardiovascular risk factors. We investigated SDOH associations with cardiovascular risk factors among Asian American subgroups.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We utilized the National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative survey of US adults, years 2013 to 2018. SDOH variables were categorized into economic stability, neighborhood and social cohesion, food security, education, and health care utilization. SDOH score was created by categorizing 27 SDOH variables as 0 (favorable) or 1 (unfavorable). Self-reported cardiovascular risk factors included diabetes, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, obesity, insufficient physical activity, suboptimal sleep, and nicotine exposure. Among 6395 Asian adults aged ≥18 years, 22.1% self-identified as Filipino, 21.6% as Asian Indian, 21.0% as Chinese, and 35.3% as other Asian. From multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, each SD increment of SDOH score was associated with higher odds of diabetes among Chinese (odds ratio [OR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04-2.03) and Filipino (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.51) adults; high blood pressure among Filipino adults (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03-1.60); insufficient physical activity among Asian Indian (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.22-1.65), Chinese (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.33-1.88), and Filipino (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06-1.46) adults; suboptimal sleep among Asian Indian adults (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01-1.42); and nicotine exposure among Chinese (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.15-2.11) and Filipino (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.14-1.97) adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Unfavorable SDOH are associated with higher odds of cardiovascular risk factors in Asian American subgroups. Culturally specific interventions addressing SDOH may help improve cardiovascular health among Asian Americans.

Cardiovascular hospitalizations and mortality among adults aged 25-64 years in the USA

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Declines in cardiovascular mortality have stagnated in the USA since 2011. There is growing concern that these patterns reflect worsening cardiovascular health in younger adults. However, little is known about how the burden of acute cardiovascular hospitalizations and mortality has changed in this population. Changes in cardiovascular hospitalizations and mortality among adults aged 25-64 years were evaluated, overall and by community-level income.

METHODS

Using the National Inpatient Sample, age-standardized annual hospitalization and in-hospital mortality rates for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, and ischaemic stroke were determined among adults aged 25-64 years. Quasi-Poisson and quasi-binominal regression models were fitted to compare outcomes between individuals residing in low- and higher-income communities.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2019, age-standardized hospitalization rates for AMI increased among younger adults from 155.0 (95% confidence interval: 154.6, 155.4) per 100 000 to 160.7 (160.3, 161.1) per 100 000 (absolute change +5.7 [5.0, 6.3], P < .001). Heart failure hospitalizations also increased (165.3 [164.8, 165.7] to 225.3 [224.8, 225.8], absolute change +60.0 (59.3, 60.6), P < .001), as ischaemic stroke hospitalizations (76.3 [76.1, 76.7] to 108.1 [107.8, 108.5], absolute change +31.7 (31.2, 32.2), P < .001). Across all conditions, hospitalizations rates were significantly higher among younger adults residing in low-income compared with higher-income communities, and disparities did not narrow between groups. In-hospital mortality decreased for all conditions over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an alarming increase in cardiovascular hospitalizations among younger adults in the USA from 2008 to 2019, and disparities between those residing in low- and higher-income communities did not narrow.

Social Determinants of Health, Cardiovascular Health, and Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Adults Without Cardiovascular Disease

Background

Limited data exist regarding the prognostic implications of social determinants of health (SDOH) and cardiovascular health (CVH) in Chinese community populations.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations of SDOH and CVH with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause death.

Methods

Individuals without cardiovascular disease were obtained from the China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project. SDOH (educational attainment, economic stability, health care access, social support, and neighborhood) and CVH components were extracted. Participants were divided into groups with low and high burden of unfavorable SDOH and groups with poor, intermediate, and ideal CVH. MACE (a composite of coronary heart disease or myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular death) and all-cause death were identified by linking hospital records with resident identity card number.

Results

Among the cohort (n = 38,571, median age 54 years, 60.5% women), the proportion of individuals with a high burden of unfavorable SDOH was 68.9%, and that with poor CVH was 30.7%. In reference to the group with a low burden of unfavorable SDOH, the adjusted HRs for MACE and all-cause death in the high burden group were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.30) and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09-1.68), respectively. In reference to the group with ideal CVH, poor CVH was associated with higher risks for MACE and all-cause death. A high burden of unfavorable SDOH and poor CVH exerted joint effects on all-cause death (HR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.08-4.48).

Conclusions

A high burden of unfavorable SDOH and poor CVH were associated with increased risks for MACE and mortality. Dedicated efforts are needed to address these health disparities.

Competing risk analysis of cardiovascular mortality in multiple myeloma survivors

Background

The survival of multiple myeloma (MM) patients has significantly improved, and several factors increase the risk of cardiovascular death (CVD) mortality in MM. This study aims to determine the prognostic significance of factors associated with long-term CVD risk in MM survivors.

Methods

The data of MM survivors whose survival time was longer than 36 months were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database between 2000 and 2015. Cox proportional hazards regressions and competing risk survival analyses were utilized to assess the CVD-associated risk factors. Propensity score matching (PSM) was further conducted to ensure the comparability of cardiovascular risk factors. The nomogram was based on these epidemiological factors to estimate individualized CVD probabilities for MM survivors, and its performance was assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

Results

A total of 32,528 survivors with MM were enrolled, and 2,061 (6.34%) suffered from CVD. In Cox proportional hazards regressions and competing risk survival analyses, age, period of diagnosis, sex, race, married status, income, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were the independent risk factors for CVD. After PSM, there was a significant difference in cumulative incidence curves, using a competing-risks method, between the following matched groups: male vs. female group, white vs. non-white group, married vs. unmarried group, income <$75,000 vs. income ≥$75,000 group, chemotherapy vs. non-chemotherapy group, and radiotherapy vs. non-radiotherapy group. The nomogram predicted CVD probabilities with a training C-index of 0.700 and a validation C-index of 0.726. Calibration curves validated that the nomograms could accurately predict the CVD probabilities both in the training and validation group.

Conclusions

Among MM survivors, the mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases differs with age, sex, period at diagnosis, race/ethnicity, marital status, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Our nomograms, based on epidemiological variables, may be used to predict 5-, 10-, and 15-year cardiovascular disease outcomes of MM survivors.

Age at job initiation and risk of coronary heart disease: findings from the UK biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

Commencing work at an early age has been linked to various risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), such as shift work and intensive job strain. However, the relationship between starting work too early and CHD risk remains largely unclear. We examined the association between age at job initiation and the risk of CHD.

METHODS

UK Biobank participants aged 38 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease who provided data on their age at job initiation were included. The primary outcome was CHD, which was ascertained using hospital and death records. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs) for the association between age at job initiation and CHD were calculated using multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of the 501,971 participants, 114,418 eligible participants were included in the final analysis. The median age at job initiation was 19.0 years. During the mean follow-up of 12.6 years, 6,130 (5.4%) first CHD events occurred. We observed that age at job initiation was inversely associated with CHD (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99), and the association was potentially J-shaped. The HRs for the < 17-year, 17-18-year, and 19-21-year age groups were 1.29 (95%CI 1.18-1.41), 1.12 (95% CI 1.03-1.22) and 1.05 (95% CI 0.97-1.14), respectively, compared with those of the ≥ 22-year group.

CONCLUSIONS

Age at job initiation was associated with incident CHD, which was independent of socioeconomic status. Participants who commenced employment before the age of 19 years exhibited a higher risk of developing CHD later in adulthood.

Association of High-Deductible Health Plans With Health Care Use and Costs for Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Background By increasing cost sharing, high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) aim to reduce low-value health care use. The association of HDHPs with health care use and costs in patients with chronic cardiovascular disease is unknown. Methods and Results This longitudinal cohort study analyzed 57 690 privately insured patients, aged 18 to 64 years, from a large commercial claims database with chronic cardiovascular disease from 2011 to 2019. Health care entities in which all or most beneficiaries switched from being in a traditional plan to an HDHP were identified. A difference-in-differences design was used to account for differences between individuals who remained in traditional plans and those who switched to HDHPs and to assess changes in health care use and costs. Among the 934 individuals in the HDHP group and the 56 756 in the traditional plan group, switching to an HDHP was not associated with statistically significant changes in annual outpatient visits, hospitalizations, or emergency department visits (-8.3% [95% CI, -16.8 to 1.1], -28.5% [95% CI, -62.1 to 34.6], and 11.2% [95% CI, -20.9 to 56.5], respectively). Switching to an HDHP was associated with an increase of $921 (95% CI, $743-$1099) in out-of-pocket costs but no statistically significant difference in total health care costs. Conclusions Among commercially insured patients with chronic cardiovascular disease, switching to an HDHP was not associated with a change in health care use but was associated with an increase in out-of-pocket costs. Although health care use by individuals with chronic cardiovascular disease may not be sensitive to higher cost sharing associated with HDHP enrollment, there may be a significant increase in patients' financial burden.

The association of perceived discrimination with dementia risk in Black older adults

INTRODUCTION

Non-Hispanic Black, compared to non-Hispanic White, older adults are at increased risk for dementia. This may be due partly to greater exposure to psychosocial stressors, such as discrimination; however, few studies have examined this association.

METHODS

We examined the association of perceived discrimination (e.g., everyday, lifetime, and discrimination burden) with dementia risk in 1583 Black adults co-enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and the Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Perceived discrimination (defined continuously and using tertiles) was assessed at JHS Exam 1 (2000-2004; mean age ± SD:66.2 ± 5.5) and related to dementia risk through ARIC visit 6 (2017) using covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Associations of perceived everyday, lifetime, and burden of discrimination with dementia risk were not supported in age-adjusted models or demographic- and cardiovascular health-adjusted models. Results were similar across sex, income, and education.

DISCUSSION

In this sample, associations between perceived discrimination and dementia risk were not supported.

HIGHLIGHTS

In Black older adults perceived discrimination not associated with dementia risk. Younger age and greater education linked to greater perceived discrimination. Older age and less education among factors associated with dementia risk. Factors increasing exposure to discrimination (education) are also neuroprotective.

Association of Sustained Low or High Income and Income Changes With Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Among Individuals Aged 30 to 64 Years

Importance

Evidence of the association between income fluctuation and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is scarce.

Objective

To investigate whether sustained low or high income and income changes are associated with incidence of T2D.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this population-based cohort study, more than 7.8 million adults without T2D aged 30 to 64 years from a nationally representative sample from the Korean Health Insurance Service database were enrolled in 2012 and followed up to 2019 (median follow-up, 6.3 years [IQR, 6.1-6.6 years]).

Exposures

Twenty quantiles of monthly health insurance premiums determined income levels. Income quartiles were annually analyzed from 2008 to 2012. Beneficiaries of the Medical Aid Program were regarded as those with very low income. A decrease in income was indicated as a reduction of 25% or more in income compared with income in the previous year.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incident T2D based on the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes E11 to E14, 1 or more claims of antidiabetic medication, or a fasting glucose level of 126 mg/dL or higher. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of low- or high-income status and income changes with incidence of T2D.

Results

Of 7 821 227 participants (mean [SD] age, 46.4 [9.3] years; 54.9% men), 359 931 (4.6%) developed T2D at least 1 year after enrollment. Individuals who repeatedly experienced low and very low income for 5 years showed 22% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.21-1.23]) and 57% (1.57 [95% CI, 1.53-1.62]) higher T2D risk compared with those who never experienced low and very low income, respectively. In contrast, individuals who were repeatedly in high-income quartiles showed lower T2D risk compared with those who never experienced high income (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.85-0.86]). The number of income decreases was associated with elevated T2D risk (≥2 vs 0 income decreases: HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.06-1.11]; P < .001 for trend). When income quartile status was compared between 2008 and 2012, individuals who experienced an income increase had lowered T2D risk, while those who experienced an income decrease had elevated T2D risk in each income quartile group.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that individuals who experienced sustained low-income status or an income decrease had elevated T2D risk, while those who had sustained high-income status or an income increase had lowered T2D risk.

Does Incident Cardiovascular Disease Lead to Greater Odds of Functional and Cognitive Impairment? Insights From the Health and Retirement Study

BACKGROUND

Although studies to date have broadly shown that cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases cognitive and physical impairment risk, there is still limited understanding of the magnitude of this risk among relevant CVD subtypes or age cohorts.

METHODS

We analyzed longitudinal data from 16 679 U.S. Health and Retirement Study participants who were aged ≥65 years at study entry. Primary endpoints were physical impairment (activities of daily living impairment) or cognitive impairment (Langa-Weir Classification of dementia). We compared these endpoints among participants who developed incident CVD versus those who were CVD free, both in the short term (<2-year postdiagnosis) and long term (>5 years), controlling for sociodemographic and health characteristics. We then analyzed the effects by CVD subtype (atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and stroke) and age-at-diagnosis (65-74, 75-84, and ≥85).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 10 years, 8 750 participants (52%) developed incident CVD. Incident CVD was associated with significantly higher adjusted odds (aOR) of short-term and long-term physical and cognitive impairment. The oldest (≥85) age-at-diagnosis subgroup had the highest risk of short-term physical (aOR 3.01, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.40-3.77) and cognitive impairment (aOR 1.96, 95% CI: 1.55-2.48), as well as long-term impairment. All CVD subtypes were associated with higher odds of physical and cognitive impairment, with the highest risk for patients with incident stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident CVD was associated with an increased risk of physical and cognitive impairment across CVD subtypes. Impairment risk after CVD was highest among the oldest patients (≥85 years) who should therefore remain a target for prevention efforts.

Associations between income changes and the risk of herpes zoster: LIFE study

Economic stability is thought to be associated with health outcomes. Income changes may affect the occurrence of herpes zoster (HZ), which is a neurocutaneous disease caused by the varicella-zoster virus. This retrospective cohort study aimed to examine the associations between annual income changes and incident HZ in a Japanese population. The analysis was conducted using a database of public health insurance claims data linked with administrative data containing income levels. The study population comprised 48,317 middle-aged persons aged 45-64 years from five municipalities, and participants were followed-up from April 2016 until March 2020. Income changes were categorized as income unchanged (income in the year of interest remained within 50% of income in the previous year), income rise (income increased by more than 50% from the previous year to the year of interest), and income drop (income decreased by more than 50% from the previous year to the year of interest). Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to calculate the hazard ratios of HZ for income drop and income rise (reference: income unchanged) as time-varying variables. Covariates included age, sex, and immune-related conditions. The results showed that income drop was significantly associated with a higher hazard ratio (1.15, 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.31) for HZ. In contrast, income rise was not associated with HZ. A subgroup analysis revealed that the lowest baseline income group had a significantly higher risk of HZ when experiencing an income drop (HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.13-2.15). As zoster vaccination is voluntary and vaccination coverage in middle-aged persons is low in Japan, our findings indicate that it may be advantageous to promote and subsidize voluntary vaccinations for middle-aged people with low baseline income who have experienced substantial income reductions in order to reduce the risk of HZ.

Dissecting the causal relationship between household income status and genetic susceptibility to cardiovascular-related diseases: Insights from bidirectional mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVES

Observational studies have revealed that socioeconomic status is associated with cardiovascular health. However, the potential causal effect remains unclear. Hence, we aimed to investigate the causal relationship between household income status and genetic susceptibility to cardiovascular-related diseases using a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study.

METHODS

An MR study based on a large-sample cohort of the European population from a publicly available genome-wide association study datasets was conducted using a random-effects inverse-variance weighting model as the main standard. Simultaneously, MR-Egger regression, weighted median, and maximum likelihood estimation were used as supplements. Sensitivity analysis, consisting of a heterogeneity test and horizontal pleiotropy test, was performed using Cochran's Q, MR-Egger intercept, and MR-PRESSO tests to ensure the reliability of the conclusion.

RESULTS

The results suggested that higher household income tended to lower the risk of genetic susceptibility to myocardial infarction (OR: 0.503, 95% CI = 0.405-0.625, P < 0.001), hypertension (OR: 0.667, 95% CI = 0.522-0.851, P = 0.001), coronary artery disease (OR: 0.674, 95% CI = 0.509-0.893, P = 0.005), type 2 diabetes (OR: 0.642, 95% CI = 0.464-0.889, P = 0.007), heart failure (OR: 0.825, 95% CI = 0.709-0.960, P = 0.013), and ischemic stroke (OR: 0.801, 95% CI = 0.662-0.968, P = 0.022). In contrast, no association was evident with atrial fibrillation (OR: 0.970, 95% CI = 0.767-1.226, P = 0.798). The reverse MR study suggested a potentially negative trend between heart failure and household income status. A sensitivity analysis verified the reliability of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The results revealed that the population with higher household income tended to have a lower risk of genetic susceptibility to myocardial infarction and hypertension.

Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) in adults in the AWI-Gen Nairobi site study: Profiles and predictors

BACKGROUND

Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) is used as a marker of subclinical and asymptomatic atherosclerotic vascular disease. Increased CIMT is associated with future cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. There is limited data on the profile and correlates of CIMT in Africa. The aim of this study was to describe the profile and correlates of CIMT in apparently normal younger-age adults in an urban setting in Kenya.

METHODS

This study used population-based data collected from 2003 adults between the ages of 40 and 60 years in two slums of Nairobi as part of a genetic study. CIMT was measured using LOGIQ e (GE Healthcare, CT, USA) ultrasound on both left and right carotid arteries, whereby maximum, mean, and minimum values were recorded. Age- and sex-specific CIMT measurements were calculated and their association with basic sociodemographic, behavioral and body composition indicators were investigated.

RESULTS

The median (IQR) CIMT were 0.58 (0.51, 0.66) and 0.59 (0.53, 0.66) in men and women, respectively. About 16% of the study population had CIMT greater than 0.7mm, the cut off for higher CIMT. Nearly 60% had CIMT values ≥75th percentile. Age, current use of alcohol, systolic blood pressure, subcutaneous fat thickness, pulse rate and pulse pressure were found to be the main predictors of CIMT in our study population.

CONCLUSION

This study provided population-based reference values and predictors for CIMT for an adult population living in urban poor settings in Kenya. Future studies need to consider biochemical and genetic predictors of CIMT in this population.

Explainable machine learning framework for predicting long-term cardiovascular disease risk among adolescents

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide, over 80% of it is preventable through early intervention and lifestyle changes. Most cases of CVD are detected in adulthood, but the risk factors leading to CVD begin at a younger age. This research is the first to develop an explainable machine learning (ML)-based framework for long-term CVD risk prediction (low vs. high) among adolescents. This study uses longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of individuals who participated in the Add Health study. A total of 14,083 participants who completed relevant survey questionnaires and health tests from adolescence to young adulthood were chosen. Four ML classifiers [decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural networks (DNN)] and 36 adolescent predictors are used to predict adulthood CVD risk. While all ML models demonstrated good prediction capability, XGBoost achieved the best performance (AUC-ROC: 84.5% and AUC-PR: 96.9% on testing data). Besides, critical predictors of long-term CVD risk and its impact on risk prediction are obtained using an explainable technique for interpreting ML predictions. The results suggest that ML can be employed to detect adulthood CVD very early in life, and such an approach may facilitate primordial prevention and personalized intervention.

Longitudinal effects of lipid indices on incident cardiovascular diseases adjusting for time-varying confounding using marginal structural models: 25 years follow-up of two US cohort studies

Background

This study assesses the effect of blood lipid indices and lipid ratios on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) using inverse probability-of-exposure weighted estimation of marginal structural models (MSMs).

Methods

A pooled dataset of two US representative cohort studies, including 16736 participants aged 42-84 years with complete information at baseline, was used. The effect of each lipid index, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (TG), ratios of TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and TG/HDL-C on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke were estimated using weighted Cox regression.

Results

There were 1638 cases of CHD and 1017 cases of stroke during a median follow-up of 17.1 years (interquartile range: 8.5 to 25.7). Compared to optimal levels, the risk of CVD outcomes increased substantially in high levels of TC, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C. If everyone had always had high levels of TC (≥240 mg/dL), risk of CHD would have been 2.15 times higher, and risk of stroke 1.35 times higher than if they had always had optimal levels (<200 mg/dL). Moreover, if all participants had been kept at very high (≥190 mg/dL) levels of LDL-C, risk of CHD would have been 2.62 times higher and risk of stroke would have been 1.92 times higher than if all participants had been kept at optimal levels, respectively. Our results suggest that high levels of HDL-C may be protective for CHD, but not for stroke. There was also no evidence of an adverse effect of high triglyceride levels on stroke.

Conclusions

Using MSM, this study highlights the effect of TC and LDL-C on CVD, with a stronger effect on CHD than on stroke. There was no evidence for a protective effect of high levels of HDL-C on stroke. Besides, triglyceride was not found to affect stroke.

Trajectories of precarious employment and the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke among middle-aged workers in Sweden: A register-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim is to identify trajectories of precarious employment (PE) over time in Sweden to examine associations of these with the subsequent risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke.

METHODS

This is a nation-wide register-based cohort study of 1,583,957 individuals aged 40 to 61 years old residing in Sweden between 2003-2007. Trajectories of PE as a multidimensional construct and single PE components (contractual employment relationship, temporariness, income levels, multiple job holding, probability of coverage by collective agreements) were identified for 2003-2007 by means of group-based model trajectories. Risk Ratios (RR) for MI and stroke according to PE trajectories were calculated by means of generalized linear models with binomial family.

FINDINGS

Adjusted estimates showed that constant PE and borderline PE trajectories increased the risk of MI (RR: 1·08, CI95%:1·05-1·11 and RR:1·13, CI95%: 1·07-1·20 respectively) and stroke (RR:1·14, CI95%: 1·10-1·18 and HR:1·24, CI95%: 1·16-1·33 respectively) among men. A higher risk of stroke in men was found for the following unidimensional trajectories: former agency employees (RR:1·32, CI95%:1·04-1·68); moving from high to a low probability of having collective agreements (RR: 1·10, CI95%:1·01-1·20). Having constant low or very low income was associated to an increased risk of MI and Stroke for both men and women.

INTERPRETATION

The study findings provide evidence that PE increases the risk of stroke and possibly MI. It highlights the importance of being covered by collective bargaining agreements, being directly employed and having sufficient income levels over time.

FUNDING

The Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, no. 2019-01226.

Changes in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Policies and Diabetes Prevalence: Analysis of Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Data From 2004 to 2014

OBJECTIVE

Food insecurity is associated with diabetes. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the largest U.S. government food assistance program. Whether such programs impact diabetes trends is unclear. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between changes in state-level policies affecting SNAP participation and county-level diabetes prevalence.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We evaluated the association between change in county-level diabetes prevalence and changes in the U.S. Department of Agriculture SNAP policy index-a measure of adoption of state-level policies associated with increased SNAP participation (higher value indicating adoption of more policies associated with increased SNAP participation; range 1-10)-from 2004 to 2014 using g-computation, a robust causal inference methodology. The study included all U.S. counties with diabetes prevalence data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's U.S. Diabetes Surveillance System.

RESULTS

The study included 3,135 of 3,143 U.S. counties. Mean diabetes prevalence increased from 7.3% (SD 1.3) in 2004 to 9.1% (SD 1.8) in 2014. The mean SNAP policy index increased from 6.4 (SD 0.9) to 8.2 (SD 0.6) in 2014. After accounting for changes in demographic-, economic-, and health care-related variables and the baseline SNAP policy index, a 1-point absolute increase in the SNAP policy index between 2004 and 2014 was associated with a 0.050 (95% CI 0.042-0.057) percentage point lower diabetes prevalence per year.

CONCLUSIONS

State policies aimed at increasing SNAP participation were independently associated with a lower rise in diabetes prevalence between 2004 and 2014.

Judgement of the multidisciplinary team is an important predictor of mortality after cardiac resynchronization therapy

Aims

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in appropriately selected patients with heart failure improves symptoms and survival. It is necessary to correctly identify patients who will benefit most from this therapy. We aimed to assess the predictive power of the multidisciplinary team's clinical judgement in the short‐term death after CRT implantation.

Methods and results

Patients with heart failure and referred for the first CRT implant were prospectively included. Prior to implantation, all patients underwent a systematic assessment with a team composed of social work, nurse, psychologist, nutritionist, and clinical cardiologist. Based on this assessment, patients could be contraindicated to CRT or referred to the procedure as favourable or unfavourable. All patients should complete 12 months of follow‐up; 172 patients were referred for CRT, 21 (12.2%) were contraindicated after the multidisciplinary team evaluation, 71 (47%) referred to CRT as non‐favourable implants, and 80 (53%) as favourable implants. All‐cause mortality occurred in only 2 (2.5%) patients in the favourable group and in 30 (42.3%) in the non‐favourable group, P < 0.001 (log rank). Among the 20 variables used as possible predictors of worse prognosis by the multidisciplinary team, four were independently associated with mortality in the follow‐up after the multivariate analysis: 1 year MAGGIC score between 40% and 49%, relative risk (RR) 5.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–18.6, P = 0.016; poor pharmacological adherence, RR 4.9, 95% CI 1.6–15.6, P = 0.007; glomerular filtration rate <35 mL/min/1.73 m², RR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1–8.5, P = 0.041; and right ventricular dysfunction, RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2–5.7, P = 0.018.

Conclusions

The clinical judgement before the CRT implantation performed by a multidisciplinary team through the analysis of clinical and psychosocial variables is a strong predictor of short‐term mortality.

Household income changes and suicidal ideation in South Korea: Findings from a longitudinal study

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to provide evidence for the need for social and welfare support in suicide prevention.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Korean Welfare Panel Study, 2011-2016. The study sample consisted of 7504 people (male: 3080 and female: 4424; mean age: 54.4 ± 16.6), with annual follow-ups until 2016. A generalized linear mixed-effects model using a logit link function with random intercept for longitudinal binary data was employed to identify the association between household income change and suicidal ideation status.

RESULTS

Suicidal ideation was found in 279 (3.7%) people at the baseline year. A drastic reduction in household income was associated with an increased probability of having suicidal ideation (adjusted odds ratio: 2.205, 95% confidence interval: 1.326-3.666). Using interaction analyses, those who had a drastic reduction in household income and were married, males, aged 40-49, and previously in a middle- to high-income group showed a higher probability of having suicidal ideation.

CONCLUSION

A drastic reduction in household income was associated with a higher probability of suicidal ideation, with specific differences according to gender, age, previous household income level, and marital status. This study reinforces the need for social and welfare support in suicide prevention policies and programs.

Financial burden, distress, and toxicity in cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major source of financial burden and distress, which has 3 main domains: (1) psychological distress; (2) cost-related care non-adherence or medical care deferral, and (3) tradeoffs with basic non-medical needs. We propose 4 ways to reduce financial distress in CVD: (1) policymakers can expand insurance coverage and curtail underinsurance; (2) health systems can limit expenditure on low-benefit, high-cost treatments while developing services for high-risk individuals; (3) physicians can engage in shared-decision-making for high-cost interventions, and (4) community-based initiatives can support patients with system navigation and financial coping. Avenues for research include (1) analysis of how healthcare policies affect financial burden; (2) comparative effectiveness studies examining high and low-cost strategies for CVD management; and (3) studying interventions to reduce financial burden, financial coaching, and community health worker integration.

Social Determinants of Health and Cardiovascular Disease: Current State and Future Directions Towards Healthcare Equity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We sought to examine the role of social and environmental conditions that determine an individual's behaviors and risk of disease-collectively known as social determinants of health (SDOH)-in shaping cardiovascular (CV) health of the population and giving rise to disparities in risk factors, outcomes, and clinical care for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death in the United States (US).

RECENT FINDINGS

Traditional CV risk factors have been extensively targeted in existing CVD prevention and management paradigms, often with little attention to SDOH. Limited evidence suggests an association between individual SDOH (e.g., income, education) and CVD. However, inequities in CVD care, risk factors, and outcomes have not been studied using a broad SDOH framework. We examined existing evidence of the association between SDOH-organized into 6 domains, including economic stability, education, food, neighborhood and physical environment, healthcare system, and community and social context-and CVD. Greater social adversity, defined by adverse SDOH, was linked to higher burden of CVD risk factors and poor outcomes, such as stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease, heart failure, and mortality. Conversely, favorable social conditions had protective effects on CVD. Upstream SDOH interact across domains to produce cumulative downstream effects on CV health, via multiple physiologic and behavioral pathways. SDOH are major drivers of sociodemographic disparities in CVD, with a disproportionate impact on socially disadvantaged populations. Efforts to achieve health equity should take into account the structural, institutional, and environmental barriers to optimum CV health in marginalized populations. In this review, we highlight major knowledge gaps for each SDOH domain and propose a set of actionable recommendations to inform CVD care, ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources, and reduce observed disparities.

Income disparity and incident cardiovascular disease in older Americans

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between income and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Of the 5795 Medicare-eligible community-dwelling older Americans aged 65-100 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), 4518 (78%) were free of baseline CVD, defined as heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or peripheral arterial disease. Of them, 1846 (41%) had lower income, defined as a total annual household income <$16,000. Using propensity scores for lower income, estimated for each of the 4518 participants, we assembled a matched cohort of 1078 pairs balanced on 42 baseline characteristics. Outcomes included centrally adjudicated incident CVD and mortality.

RESULTS

Matched participants (n = 2156) had a mean age of 73 years, 63% were women, and 13% African American. During an overall follow-up of 23 years, incident CVD, all-cause mortality and the combined endpoint of incident CVD or mortality occurred in 1094 (51%), 1726 (80%) and 1867 (87%) individuals, respectively. Compared with the higher income group, hazard ratio (HR) for time to the first occurrence of incident CVD in the lower income group was 1.16 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.03 to 1.31. A lower income was also associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.30), and consequently a higher risk of the combined endpoint of incident CVD or death (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.31).

CONCLUSION

Among community-dwelling older Americans free of baseline CVD, an annual household income <$16,000 is independently associated with significantly higher risks of new-onset CVD and death.

Adaptation of an NLP system to a new healthcare environment to identify social determinants of health

Social determinants of health (SDoH) are increasingly important factors for population health, healthcare outcomes, and care delivery. However, many of these factors are not reliably captured within structured electronic health record (EHR) data. In this work, we evaluated and adapted a previously published NLP tool to include additional social risk factors for deployment at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in an Acute Myocardial Infarction cohort. We developed a transformation of the SDoH outputs of the tool into the OMOP common data model (CDM) for re-use across many potential use cases, yielding performance measures across 8 SDoH classes of precision 0.83 recall 0.74 and F-measure of 0.78.

Olive oil consumption and its repercussions on lipid metabolism

Consumption of highly processed foods, such as those high in trans fats and free sugars, coupled with sedentarism and chronic stress increases the risk of obesity and cardiometabolic disorders, while adherence to a Mediterranean diet is inversely associated with the prevalence of such diseases. Olive oil is the main source of fat in the Mediterranean diet. Data accumulated thus far show consumption of extra virgin, (poly)phenol-rich olive oil to be associated with specific health benefits. Of note, recommendations for consumption based on health claims refer to the phenolic content of extra virgin olive oil as beneficial. However, even though foods rich in monounsaturated fatty acids, such as olive oil, are healthier than foods rich in saturated and trans fats, their inordinate use can lead to adverse effects on health. The aim of this review was to summarize the data on olive oil consumption worldwide and to critically examine the literature on the potential adverse effects of olive oil and its main components, particularly any effects on lipid metabolism. As demonstrated by substantial evidence, extra virgin olive oil is healthful and should be preferentially used within the context of a balanced diet, but excessive consumption may lead to adverse consequences.

County-Level Factors Associated With Cardiovascular Mortality by Race/Ethnicity

Background

Persistent racial/ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality are partially explained by healthcare access and socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral factors. Little is known about the association between race/ethnicity‐specific CVD mortality and county‐level factors.

Methods and Results

Using 2017 county‐level data, we studied the association between race/ethnicity‐specific CVD age‐adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) and county‐level factors (demographics, census region, socioeconomics, CVD risk factors, and healthcare access). Univariate and multivariable linear regressions were used to estimate the association between these factors; R² values were used to assess the factors that accounted for the greatest variation in CVD AAMR by race/ethnicity (non‐Hispanic White, non‐Hispanic Black, and Hispanic/Latinx individuals). There were 659 740 CVD deaths among non‐Hispanic White individuals in 2698 counties; 100 475 deaths among non‐Hispanic Black individuals in 717 counties; and 49 493 deaths among Hispanic/Latinx individuals across 267 counties. Non‐Hispanic Black individuals had the highest mean CVD AAMR (320.04 deaths per 100 000 individuals), whereas Hispanic/Latinx individuals had the lowest (168.42 deaths per 100 000 individuals). The highest CVD AAMRs across all racial/ethnic groups were observed in the South. In unadjusted analyses, the greatest variation (R²) in CVD AAMR was explained by physical inactivity for non‐Hispanic White individuals (32.3%), median household income for non‐Hispanic Black individuals (24.7%), and population size for Hispanic/Latinx individuals (28.4%). In multivariable regressions using county‐level factor categories, the greatest variation in CVD AAMR was explained by CVD risk factors for non‐Hispanic White individuals (35.3%), socioeconomic factors for non‐Hispanic Black (25.8%), and demographic factors for Hispanic/Latinx individuals (34.9%).

Conclusions

The associations between race/ethnicity‐specific age‐adjusted CVD mortality and county‐level factors differ significantly. Interventions to reduce disparities may benefit from being designed accordingly.

Association Between County-Level Change in Economic Prosperity and Change in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Middle-aged US Adults

IMPORTANCE

After a decline in cardiovascular mortality for nonelderly US adults, recent stagnation has occurred alongside rising income inequality. Whether this is associated with underlying economic trends is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between changes in economic prosperity and trends in cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged US adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective analysis of the association between change in 7 markers of economic prosperity in 3123 US counties and county-level cardiovascular mortality among 40- to 64-year-old adults (102 660 852 individuals in 2010).

EXPOSURES

Mean rank for change in 7 markers of economic prosperity between 2 time periods (baseline: 2007-2011 and follow-up: 2012-2016). A higher mean rank indicates a greater relative increase or lower relative decrease in prosperity (range, 5 to 92; mean [SD], 50 [14]).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mean annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the additional APC associated with a change in prosperity.

RESULTS

Among 102 660 852 residents aged 40 to 64 years living in these counties in 2010 (51% women), 979 228 cardiovascular deaths occurred between 2010 and 2017. Age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates did not change significantly between 2010 and 2017 in counties in the lowest tertile for change in economic prosperity (mean [SD], 114.1 [47.9] to 116.1 [52.7] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.7%]). Mortality decreased significantly in the intermediate tertile (mean [SD], 104.7 [38.8] to 101.9 [41.5] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.4% [95% CI, -0.8% to -0.1%]) and highest tertile for change in prosperity (100.0 [37.9] to 95.1 [39.1] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.5% [95% CI, -0.9% to -0.1%]). After accounting for baseline prosperity and demographic and health care-related variables, a 10-point higher mean rank for change in economic prosperity was associated with 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.6%) additional decrease in mortality per year.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective study of US county-level mortality data from 2010 to 2017, a relative increase in county-level economic prosperity was significantly associated with a small relative decrease in cardiovascular mortality among middle-aged adults. Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the study.

Reduced SULT2B1b expression alleviates ox-LDL-induced inflammation by upregulating miR-148-3P via inhibiting the IKKβ/NF-κB pathway in macrophages

Atherosclerosis is a lipid-driven chronic inflammatory disease in which lipid-laden macrophage foam cells lead to inflamed lesions in arteries. Previous studies have proven that sulfotransferase 2B1b (SULT2B1b) has several roles in the regulation of lipid metabolism and the inflammatory response. However, little is known about the functions of SULT2B1b in ox-LDL-induced inflammation in macrophages. In this study, after treatment with either ox-LDL alone or combined with transfection of siRNAs targeting SULT2B1b, IL-6, TNF-α, NF-κB, IKKβ and IκB mRNA and protein expression were determined in Raw264.7 cells by real-time PCR and Western blot, respectively. The proliferative capacity was determined by EdU staining and Cell Counting Kit-8. Our data demonstrated that SULT2B1b knockdown could reduce phosphorylated NF-κB levels and downregulate IKKβ protein levels. Additionally, IκB levels were increased and the proliferation of ox-LDL stimulated cells was inhibited after SULT2B1b silencing. Downregulation of SULT2B1b expression was found to upregulate miR-148a-3p expression by microarray assay, while IKKβ was a miR-148a-3p target gene. Our study suggests that SULT2B1b knockdown could promote miR148a-3p expression and inhibit activation of the IKKβ/NF-κB signalling pathway, which suppressed the inflammatory response in macrophages. Therefore, targeting the SULT2B1b gene might be potentially beneficial for atherosclerosis prevention by decreasing the inflammatory response.

Income level and outcomes in patients with heart failure with universal health coverage

Objective

We aimed to investigate the influence of income level on guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) prescription rates and prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) following implementation of a nationwide health insurance programme.

Methods

A total of 633 098 hospitalised patients with HF from 1996 to 2013 were identified from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Participants were classified into low-income, median-income and high-income groups. GDMT utilisation, in-hospital mortality and postdischarge HF readmission, and mortality rates were compared.

Results

The low-income group had a higher comorbidity burden and was less likely to receive GDMT than the other two groups. The in-hospital mortality rate in the low-income group (5.07%) was higher than in the median-income (2.47%) and high-income (2.51%) groups. Compared with the high-income group, the low-income group had a significantly higher risk of postdischarge HF readmission (adjusted HR (aHR): 1.29, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.31), all-cause mortality (aHR: 1.98, 95% CI 1.95 to 2.02) and composite HF readmission/all-cause mortality (aHR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.52 to 1.56). These results were generally consistent among the population after propensity matching (low vs high: HR=2.08 for mortality and 1.36 for HF readmission; median vs high: HR=1.23 for mortality and 1.12 for HF readmission; all p<0.001) and after inverse probability of treatment weighting (low-income vs high-income group: HR: 2.19 for mortality and 1.16 for HF readmission; median-income vs high-income group: HR: 1.53 for mortality and 1.09 for HF readmission; all p<0.001). Lower utilisation of GDMT and poorer prognosis in lower-income hospitalised patients with HF appeared to mitigate over time.

Conclusions

Low-income patients with HF had nearly a twofold increase in the risk of in-hospital mortality and postdischarge events compared with the high-income group, partly due to lower GDMT utilisation. The differences between postdischarge HF outcomes among various income groups appeared to mitigate over time following the implementation of nationwide universal health coverage.

[Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Chronic Coronary Syndromes in Primary Health Care - the Issue of Acceptability for the Russian Federation]

In 2019, the European Society for Cardiology (ESC) published guidelines with a new term, "chronic coronary syndromes" (CCS). These guidelines presented 6 clinical scenarios, which are most common in outpatient practice. The diagnostic approach described in these guidelines shifts from the standardization to the rationality of individualized solutions on using various diagnostic methods. The diagnostic approach suggested in the ESC guidelines requires extensive medical discussion and consensus because this will definitely entail a) further increase in indexes that reflect the morbidity of ischemic heart disease (IHD) due to unconfirmed diagnoses and b) administration of unreasoned therapy. This article presents statements of the guidelines, which cannot be automatically transmitted to the existing medical practice and should be discussed and adjusted by experts of the Russian Society of Cardiology.