Costs Associated With Imaging Surveillance After Treatment for Head and Neck Cancer

Impact of Surveillance Imaging in Patients With HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Carcinoma Treated With Definitive Radiation and Chemotherapy

OBJECTIVES

Surveillance imaging for HPV-associated oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPCs) differs among physicians and institutions. Surveillance imaging can detect disease progression earlier, but can also contribute to anxiety and cost, without proven survival benefits. We sought to determine practice patterns of surveillance imaging and the number of surveillance scans needed to detect one recurrence in patients with HPV-associated OPCs.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study between 2017 and 2019 (median follow-up: 39.9 mo) of consecutive patients with locally advanced HPV-associated OPC who received definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with 70 Gy at a single institution. Patients were followed post-CRT and their surveillance scans were recorded. Recurrences were classified as detected by first post-treatment scans, surveillance scans, clinical exams, or incidental findings. The number of surveillance scans needed to detect 1 recurrence was determined by dividing the number of surveillance scans by the number of recurrences detected by surveillance scans.

RESULTS

Among 276 patients with a median follow-up of 39.9 months, there were 28 recurrences. Of all recurrences, 11 (39.3%) were detected by the first post-treatment scan, 11 (39.3%) by surveillance scan, 5 (17.9%) by clinical exam, and 1 (3.6%) was incidentally found. A total of 694 surveillance scans were taken. The number of surveillance scans needed to detect 1 recurrence was 64 overall, 45 within 2 years, and 248 beyond 2 years from treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

First post-treatment scans and surveillance scans detected more recurrences than clinical exams. A high burden of surveillance scans is needed to detect 1 recurrence, especially beyond 2 years from treatment.

Diagnostic Performance of 18F-FDG PET/CT According to Delay After Treatment to Detect Subclinical Recurrence of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains a malignancy with high rates of locoregional recurrence and poor prognosis for recurrent cases. Early detection of subclinical lesions is challenging but critical for effective patient management. Imaging surveillance after treatment, particularly 18F-FDG PET/CT, has shown promise in the diagnosis of HNSCC recurrence. The aim was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of 18F-FDG PET/CT according to delay after treatment in detecting subclinical recurrence (SCR) in HNSCC patients. Methods: In this retrospective study, all 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed at a single center. All adults with histologically proven HNSCC who were treated with curative intent between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2021, were included. They had a normal clinical examination before each scan. Patients who underwent an intensive follow-up strategy after treatment had 18F-FDG PET/CT with an intravenous contrast agent at 3-6 mo and annually thereafter for 5 y. The primary endpoint was diagnostic performance (positive and negative predictive values, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy). Results: In total, 2,566 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed among 852 patients, with an average of 3 scans per patient. The overall diagnostic performance measures were as follows: positive predictive value (88%), negative predictive value (98%), sensitivity (98%), specificity (89%), and accuracy (93%). There were no significant differences in diagnostic performance over time. The scans detected 126 cases of SCR (14.8%) and 118 cases of metachronous cancer (13.8%). The incidence of SCR decreased over time, with the highest detection rate in the first 2 y after treatment. Positive predictive value improved over time, reaching 90% for the digital Vision 600 system (third period) compared with 76% for the analog Gemini GXLi system (first period, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified advanced stage, high body mass index, and initial PET/CT upstaging as predictive factors for detection of SCR. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that 18F-FDG PET/CT has high diagnostic performance in detecting SCR during follow-up after treatment of HNSCC, especially in the first 2 y. Advanced tumor stage, initial PET/CT upstaging, and high body mass index were associated with a higher likelihood of SCR detection. The routine use of 18F-FDG PET/CT during follow-up seems justified for patients with HNSCC.

Post-treatment surveillance imaging in head and neck cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

In patients treated for head and neck cancer, imaging studies are usually obtained within 3-6 months after treatment for assessment of treatment response. After 6 months, most guidelines advocate clinical follow-up, with imaging reserved for patients with clinically suspect or equivocal findings. However, some guidelines do recommend systematic imaging surveillance, and many clinicians tend to include some type of imaging in their follow-up schemes.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review focuses on the usefulness of routine (systematic) post-treatment imaging surveillance of head and neck cancer beyond the first 3-6-month baseline imaging study.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Google Scholar. Additional studies were identified by reviewing reference lists. Only original studies and review papers were considered. Results obtained with systematic post-treatment surveillance imaging were compared to symptom-directed imaging and/or clinical finding-directed imaging.

RESULTS

Five hundred twenty-one records were identified through the database search, and 44 additional records were identified through other sources. Forty-eight articles were selected for the final review. Analysis of these records showed that almost half of cases of locoregional recurrences and/or metastases were only detected by imaging (40.9%), and the mean time of detection of recurrent or metastatic disease (11.5 months) was well beyond the period of the first post-treatment scan. Most authors reported superior results with PET-CT when compared to other imaging techniques.

CONCLUSION

Strong arguments were found in favor of systematic imaging surveillance in locoregional advanced head and neck cancer during at least one and preferably 2 years after treatment.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Analysis of the selected records showed that almost half of cases of locoregional recurrences and/or metastases were only detected by imaging. This systematic review suggests that imaging may currently be underused in the post-treatment surveillance of patients with head and neck cancer.

KEY POINTS

• This systematic review focuses on the usefulness of long-term systematic imaging surveillance in patients treated for head and neck cancer. • Analysis of 521 articles revealed that systematic imaging allowed the initial detection of locoregional recurrences and/or metastases in more than 40% of patients. • Imaging may currently be underused in the post-treatment surveillance of patients with advanced head and neck cancer.

Rising use of diagnostic imaging in Australia: An analysis of Medicare-funded radiology services between 2000 and 2021

INTRODUCTION

The use of diagnostic imaging services is increasing worldwide. This has important impacts on healthcare resource allocation and potential risks to the population. This study aimed to quantify trends in medical imaging in Australia over the past two decades.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Australian Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) between 2000 and 2021. Simple linear regression analyses were performed to assess changes in absolute utilisation and utilisation rate per 100,000 population of total imaging services as well as by each imaging modality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess changes in total imaging services as a proportion of total Medicare services over time. Chi-squared test was used to assess for change in modality composition of imaging services.

RESULTS

There were 436,255,500 imaging studies performed between 2000 and 2021. The absolute utilisation of total imaging services increased annually by an average of 864,404 (95% CI: 808,235-920,573, p < 0.001). For each consecutive year, the proportion of total Medicare services attributed to total imaging services increased by 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01-0.01, p < 0.01). There was also a statistically significant increase in the utilisation rates of imaging services per 100,000 population for each imaging modality. The number of imaging services per radiologist increased on average by 74 (95% CI: 26-122, p < 0.05) annually.

CONCLUSION

The utilisation of diagnostic imaging services has increased in Australia between 2000 and 2021, outpacing the population growth, total healthcare services, and the radiologist workforce.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of PET-CT Surveillance After Treatment of Human Papillomavirus-Positive Oropharyngeal Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of surveillance imaging with PET/CT scan among patients with human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

STUDY DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis.

SETTING

Oncologic care centers in the United States with head and neck oncologic surgeons and physicians.

METHODS

We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2 posttreatment surveillance strategies: clinical surveillance with the addition of PET/CT scan versus clinical surveillance alone in human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients. We constructed a Markov decision model which was analyzed from a third-party payer's perspective using 1-year Markov cycles and a 30-year time horizon. Values for transition probabilities, costs, health care utilities, and their studied ranges were derived from the literature.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for PET/CT with clinical surveillance versus clinical surveillance alone was $89,850 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Flexible fiberoptic scope exams during clinical surveillance would have to be over 51% sensitive or PET/CT scan cost would have to exceed $1678 for clinical surveillance alone to be more cost-effective. The willingness-to-pay threshold at which imaging surveillance was equally cost-effective to clinical surveillance was approximately $80,000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Despite lower recurrence rates of human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer, a single PET/CT scan within 6 months after primary treatment remains a cost-effective tool for routine surveillance when its cost does not exceed $1678. The cost-effectiveness of this strategy is also dependent on the clinical surveillance sensitivity (flexible fiberoptic pharyngoscopy), and willingness-to-pay thresholds which vary by country.

Algorithms of follow-up in patients with head and neck cancer in relation to primary location and advancement. Consensus of Polish ENT Society Board and Head Neck Experts

Summary

The algorithm of follow-up in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) has been prepared by a board of Polish Head Neck and Oncology Experts. The aim of this research is to focus on the specificity of HNC monitoring, to review the current trends in follow-up, and to adapt the evidence-based medicine international standards to the capabilities of the local healthcare service.

Materials and methods

The first methodological step was to categorize HNCs according to the estimated risk of failure after the adequate first-line treatment and according to the possibility of effective salvage treatment, resulting in improved overall survival. The final method used in this work was to prepare an authors' original monitoring algorithm for HNC groups with a high, moderate, and low risk of recurrence in combination with a high or low probability of using an effective salvage.

Results

Four categories were established: Ia. low risk of recurrence + effective organ preservation feasible; Ib. low risk of recurrence + effective salvage feasible; II. moderate risk of recurrence + effective salvage feasible; III. high risk of recurrence + effective salvage feasible; and IV. high risk of recurrence + no effective salvage feasible. Follow-up visit consisting of 1. ENT examination + neck ultrasound, 2. imaging HN tests, 3. chest imaging, 4. blood tests, and 5. rehabilitation (speech and swallowing) was scheduled with a very different frequency, at the proposed monthly intervals, tailored to the needs of the group. The number of visits for individual groups varies from 1 to 8 in the first 2 years and from 1 to 17 in the entire 5-year monitoring period. Group IV has not been included in regular follow-up, visits on own initiative of the patient if symptomatic, or supportive care needs, having in mind that third-line therapy and immune checkpoint inhibitors are available.

Conclusion

Universal monitoring algorithm for HNC four groups with a high, moderate, and low risk of recurrence after the adequate treatment in combination with a high or low probability of using an effective salvage is an innovative approach to redeploying system resources and ensuring maximum benefit for patients with HNC.

Posttreatment Surveillance Imaging After Radiation for Head and Neck Cancer

Importance

The role of surveillance imaging after treatment for head and neck cancer is controversial and evidence to support decision-making is limited.

Objective

To determine the use of surveillance imaging in asymptomatic patients with head and neck cancer in remission after completion of chemoradiation.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective, comparative effectiveness research review of adult patients who had achieved a complete metabolic response to initial treatment for head and neck cancer as defined by having an unequivocally negative positron emission tomography (PET) scan using the PET response criteria in solid tumors (PERCIST) scale within the first 6 months of completing therapy. The medical records of 501 consecutive patients who completed definitive radiation therapy (with or without chemotherapy) for newly diagnosed squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck between January 2014 and June 2022 were reviewed.

Exposure

Surveillance imaging was defined as the acquisition of a PET with computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or CT of the head and neck region in the absence of any clinically suspicious symptoms and/or examination findings. For remaining patients, subsequent surveillance after the achievement of a complete metabolic response to initial therapy was performed on an observational basis in the setting of routine follow-up using history-taking and physical examination, including endoscopy. This expectant approach led to imaging only in the presence of clinically suspicious symptoms and/or physical examination findings.

Main Outcome and Measures

Local-regional control, overall survival, and progression-free survival based on assignment to either the surveillance imaging or expectant management cohort.

Results

This study included 340 patients (mean [SD] age, 59 [10] years; 201 males [59%]; 88 Latino patients [26%]; 145 White patients [43%]) who achieved a complete metabolic response during this period. There was no difference in 3-year local-regional control, overall survival, progression-free survival, or freedom from distant metastasis between patients treated with surveillance imaging vs those treated expectantly.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this comparative effectiveness research, imaging-based surveillance failed to improve outcomes compared with expectant management for patients who were seemingly in remission after completion of primary radiation therapy for head and neck cancer.

Diagnostic Performance of Response Assessment FDG-PET/CECT in HNSCC Treated With Definitive Radio(chemo)therapy Using NI-RADS

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic performance of response assessment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/contrast-enhanced computed tomography (FDG-PET/CECT) following definitive radio(chemo)therapy in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) using Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System (NI-RADS).

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective analysis from a prospectively maintained dataset.

SETTING

Tertiary-care comprehensive cancer center in a low-middle-income country.

METHODS

Adults with newly diagnosed, biopsy-proven, nonmetastatic HNSCC treated with definitive radio(chemo)therapy were included. Posttreatment response assessment FDG-PET/CECT scans were retrospectively assigned NI-RADS categories (1-3) for the primary site, neck, and both sites combined. Locoregional recurrence occurring within 2-years was defined as the event of interest. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and overall accuracy were calculated. Locoregional control stratified by NI-RADS categories was computed with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Posttreatment FDG-PET/CECT scans were available in 190 patients constituting the present study cohort. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and overall accuracy of the NI-RADS template for the primary site was 73.5%, 81.4%, 46.3%, 93.4%, and 80.0%, respectively. Similar metrics for the neck were 72.7%, 87.5%, 43.2%, 96.1%, and 85.8%, respectively. Combining primary site and neck, the corresponding metrics of diagnostic accuracy were 84.4%, 69.7%, 46.3%, 93.5%, and 73.2%, respectively. At a median follow-up of 40 months, Kaplan-Meier estimates of 2-year locoregional control were significantly higher for NI-RADS category 1 (94.2%) compared to NI-RADS category 2 (69.4%) and category 3 (20.4%), respectively (stratified log-rank p < .0001).

CONCLUSION

FDG-PET/CECT using the NI-RADS template is associated with good diagnostic performance and prognostic utility in HNSCC treated with definitive radio(chemo)therapy.

An Intensive 18F-Fludeoxyglucose-Positron Emission Tomography With Computed Tomography-Based Strategy of Follow-Up in Patients Treated for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Who Are Clinically Asymptomatic

Importance

Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) have a significant risk of locoregional recurrence within the first 2 years, with approximately two-thirds of patients experiencing such recurrence. While early recurrence detection may be associated with improved patient outcomes, the association of such detection with survival remains uncertain.

Objective

To investigate the association of an intensive posttreatment follow-up strategy using 18F-fludeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography with computed tomography (18FDG-PET/CT) with survival among patients with HNSCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-control study was conducted among patients treated at 1 of 3 locations in Brest, France (University Hospital, Military Hospital, or Pasteur Clinic). The statistical analysis was conducted from January to June 2023. All adults with histologically proven HNSCC who were treated with curative intent between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2019, and achieved a complete response on imaging at 3 to 6 months were included. They had a minimum of 3 years of follow-up.

Exposures

Patients undergoing an intensive posttreatment follow-up strategy had 18FDG-PET/CT (PET/CT group) at months 12, 24, and 36, chosen at the discretion of ear, nose, and throat surgeons.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall survival (OS) at 3 years.

Results

Among 782 patients with HNSCC (642 males [82.1%]; median [IQR] age, 61 [56-68] years), 497 patients had 18FDG-PET/CT during follow-up and 285 patients had conventional follow-up (CFU group). Cox regression analysis showed an association between undergoing 18FDG-PET/CT and lower risk of death (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.88; P = .002) after adjustment for covariates (age, sex, comorbidities, primary location, stage, surgeon, year of treatment, and treatment). The mean (SD) 3-year OS was significantly better in the PET/CT vs CFU group (72.5% [2.0%] vs 64.3% [2.9%]; P = .002). Analysis based on American Joint Committee on Cancer stage showed significantly better mean (SD) 3-year OS for advanced stages III and IV in the PET/CT group (373 patients) vs CFU group (180 patients; 68.5% [2.4%] vs 55.4% [3.8%]; P < .001), while no significant difference was observed between patients with stage I or II HNSCC. Analysis based on primary tumor site revealed significantly longer mean (SD) 3-year OS for oropharyngeal tumor in the PET/CT group (176 patients) than the CFU group (100 patients; 69.9% [3.5%] vs 60.5% [5.0%]; P = .04).

Conclusions and relevance

This case-control study found that use of 18FDG-PET/CT in the standard annual CFU of HNSCC was associated with a 3-year survival benefit, with a larger benefit for patients with advanced initial tumor stage (III-IV) and oropharyngeal disease.

Analytical Validation of NavDx, a cfDNA-Based Fragmentomic Profiling Assay for HPV-Driven Cancers

The NavDx^® blood test analyzes tumor tissue modified viral (TTMV)-HPV DNA to provide a reliable means of detecting and monitoring HPV-driven cancers. The test has been clinically validated in a large number of independent studies and has been integrated into clinical practice by over 1000 healthcare providers at over 400 medical sites in the US. This Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA), high complexity laboratory developed test, has also been accredited by the College of American Pathologists (CAP) and the New York State Department of Health. Here, we report a detailed analytical validation of the NavDx assay, including sample stability, specificity as measured by limits of blank (LOBs), and sensitivity illustrated via limits of detection and quantitation (LODs and LOQs). LOBs were 0-0.32 copies/μL, LODs were 0-1.10 copies/μL, and LOQs were <1.20-4.11 copies/μL, demonstrating the high sensitivity and specificity of data provided by NavDx. In-depth evaluations including accuracy and intra- and inter-assay precision studies were shown to be well within acceptable ranges. Regression analysis revealed a high degree of correlation between expected and effective concentrations, demonstrating excellent linearity (R² = 1) across a broad range of analyte concentrations. These results demonstrate that NavDx accurately and reproducibly detects circulating TTMV-HPV DNA, which has been shown to aid in the diagnosis and surveillance of HPV-driven cancers.

Evaluation of Optimal Assessment Schedules for Surveillance After Definitive Locoregional Treatment of Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study With Parametric Modeling of Event-Free Survival

Importance

In clinical practice, assessment schedules are often arbitrarily determined after definitive treatment of head and neck cancer (HNC), producing heterogeneous and inconsistent surveillance plans.

Objective

To establish an optimal assessment schedule for patients with definitively treated locally advanced HNC, stratified by the primary subsite and HPV status, using a parametric model of standardized event-free survival curves.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective study including 2 tertiary referral hospitals and a total of 673 patients with definitive locoregional treatment of locally advanced HNC (227 patients with nasopharyngeal cancer [NPC]; 237 patients with human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer [HPV+ OPC]; 47 patients with HPV-negative [HPV-] OPC; 65 patients with hypopharyngeal cancer [HPC]; and 97 patients with laryngeal cancer [LC]). Patients had received primary treatment in 2008 through 2019. The median (range) follow-up duration was 57.8 (6.4-158.1) months. Data analyses were performed from April to October 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Tumor recurrence and secondary malignant neoplasms. Event-free survival was defined as the period from the end of treatment to occurrence of any event. Event-free survival curves were estimated using a piecewise exponential model and divided into 3 phases of regular follow-up. A 5% event rate criterion determined optimal follow-up time point and interval.

Results

The median (range) age of the 673 patients at HNC diagnosis was 58 (15-83) years; 555 (82.5%) were men; race and ethnicity were not considered. The event rates of NPC, HPV+ OPC, HPV- OPC, HPC, and LC were 18.9% (43 of 227), 14.8% (35 of 237), 36.2% (17 of 47), 44.6% (29 of 65), and 30.9% (30 of 97), respectively. Parametric modeling demonstrated optimal follow-up intervals for HPC, LC, and NPC, respectively, every 2.1, 3.2, and 6.1 months; 3.7, 5.6, and 10.8 months; and 9.1, 13.8, and 26.5 months until 16.5, 16.5 to 25.0, and 25.0 to 99.0 months posttreatment (open follow-up thereafter). For HPV- OPC, assessment was recommended every 2.7, 4.8, and 11.8 months until 16.5, 16.5 to 25.0, and 25 to 99 months posttreatment, respectively. In contrast, HPV+ OPC optimal intervals were every 7.7, 13.7, and 33.7 months until 16.5, 16.5 to 25.0, and 25 to 99 months posttreatment, respectively. Five, 4, 12, 15, and 10 follow-up visits were recommended for NPC, HPV+ OPC, HPV- OPC, HPC, and LC, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

This retrospective cohort study using parametric modeling suggests that the HNC assessment schedules should be patient tailored and evidence based to consider primary subsites and HPV status. Given limited health care resources and rising detection rates and costs of HNC, the guidelines offered by these findings could benefit patients and health systems and aid in developing future consensus guidelines.

Detection of Occult Recurrence Using Circulating Tumor Tissue Modified Viral HPV DNA among Patients Treated for HPV-Driven Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Despite generally favorable outcomes, 15% to 25% of patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) will have recurrence. Current posttreatment surveillance practices rely on physical examinations and imaging and are inconsistently applied. We assessed circulating tumor tissue modified viral (TTMV)-HPV DNA obtained during routine posttreatment surveillance among a large population of real-world patients.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

This retrospective clinical case series included 1,076 consecutive patients across 108 U.S. sites who were ≥ 3 months posttreatment for HPV-driven OPSCC and who had one or more TTMV-HPV DNA tests (NavDx, Naveris Laboratories) obtained during surveillance between February 6, 2020, and June 29, 2021. Test results were compared with subsequent clinical evaluations.

RESULTS

Circulating TTMV-HPV DNA was positive in 80 of 1,076 (7.4%) patients, with follow-up available on all. At first positive surveillance testing, 21 of 80 (26%) patients had known recurrence while 59 of 80 (74%) patients were not known to have recurrent disease. Among these 59 patients, 55 (93%) subsequently had a confirmed recurrence, 2 patients had clinically suspicious lesions, and 2 had clinically "no evidence of disease" (NED) at last follow-up. To date, the overall positive predictive value of TTMV-HPV DNA testing for recurrent disease is 95% (N = 76/80). In addition, the point-in-time negative predictive value is 95% (N = 1,198/1,256).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the clinical potential for circulating TTMV-HPV DNA testing in routine practice. As a surveillance tool, TTMV-HPV DNA positivity was the first indication of recurrence in the majority of cases, pre-dating identification by routine clinical and imaging exams. These data may inform future clinical and guideline-endorsed strategies for HPV-driven malignancy surveillance. See related commentary by Colevas, p. 4171.

The economic impact of circulating tumor-tissue modified HPV DNA for the post-treatment surveillance of HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer: A simulation

PURPOSE

Following treatment of HPV-driven oropharynx cancer, surveillance nasopharyngoscopy and imaging are often performed but are expensive and frequently ineffective. A novel plasma circulating tumor-tissue modified viral HPV DNA (TTMV-HPV-DNA) assay accurately detects recurrences. We modeled the cost of the new assay.

METHODS

We designed and validated a partitioned survival model which replicated the results of the RTOG 1016 study and calculated cumulative surveillance costs from the payer's perspective. Two strategies were considered: a standard of routine endoscopy with imaging as needed and an alternative strategy which omitted scopes and imaging but obtained serial TTMV-HPV-DNA samples. No difference in effectiveness (QALY or LY) was assumed in the base case. A 5-year horizon was used, costs were reported in 2020 U.S. dollars discounted by 3%. Seven scenarios tested model assumptions and practice variation. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

In the base case, at the list TTMV-HPV-DNA price, the cumulative cost of surveillance was $11,674 for the standard strategy and $20,756 for the TTMV-HPV-DNA strategy (+$9082 over 5 years). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated the cost difference ranged from $4917-$12,047. The TTMV-HPV-DNA strategy was most likely to be either cost saving or cost-effective if future data demonstrate small improvements in quality or quantity of life (approximately 33 quality-adjusted life-days), if the assay reduces utilization of imaging, and if the periodicity of TTMV-HPV-DNA draws could be reduced from that on clinical trials.

CONCLUSIONS

This data informs providers seeking to design more accurate, accessible, and economical post-treatment surveillance strategies.

Estimated Cost of Circulating Tumor DNA for Posttreatment Surveillance of Human Papillomavirus-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer

This cross-sectional study compares the cost and effectiveness of 3 posttreatment strategies for surveillance of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated oropharyngeal cancer.