If a population crashes in prehistory, and there is no paleodemographer there to hear it, does it make a sound?

Using cementochronology to assess the seasonality of catastrophic events in medieval mass graves (Kutná Hora-Sedlec, Czechia, 14th century): Preliminary results

While season-of-death estimation using cementochronology is routine in archaeozoology, its use is much less frequent in bioarchaeology. Based on the character of the outermost increment (bright or dark), two seasons (spring/summer, autumn/winter) can be distinguished. Although many studies mention its potential and possible use in forensic anthropology or bioarchaeology, few exist with estimation results. This study aimed to apply cementochronology-a histological method based on counting and assessing regular circa-annual acellular cementum increments-to 42 individuals from medieval mass graves from Kutná Hora-Sedlec (Czechia, 14th century) to estimate the season-of-death. The mass graves belong to two stratigraphically distinct groups; written and archaeological sources relate them to two catastrophic events (the famine of 1318 and the plague epidemic of 1348-1350). Using cementochronology, we distinguished two distinct seasons corresponding to the two groups of graves, with individuals from the first group dying predominantly in spring/summer, while those from the second group died in autumn/winter. Taking into account the typical seasonal dynamics of epidemics, the results would be more in line with written sources. However, during the evaluation, we faced difficulties identifying the outermost increment and detecting the dark (thinner) increment; we recommend including only young and middle-aged adults in future studies, due to the difficulty of evaluation, and to consider the readability of the tissue (often affected by diagenesis). In conclusion, cementochronology has potential in the context of estimating the season-of-death, but the technical possibilities for enhancing the outermost increment need to be addressed, and the amount of data analysed expanded.

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age-at-death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half-century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human-disease interaction, among other topics.

The plague’s impact paleodemographic and genetic measures in 15th to 16th century Gdańsk

Yersinia pestis caused plagues and haunted Gdańsk several times during the 15th and 16th centuries. This study focuses on the following demographic effects: 1/ distributions of deceased by age in a plagued city, 2/ parameters of the life tables, 3/ estimation of the natural increase. To assess genetic effects of the plague, measures of the opportunity for natural selection were considered. Skeletal remains of 283 people from the 15th – 16th century ossuary 3009 from the Dominican Monastery in Gdańsk provided research material. Yersinia pestis DNA in this skeletal material has already been found (Morozowa et al. 2017, 2020). Distributions of the deceased by age in the study sample were compared with those for Gdańsk before the plague and with those for the mass burial of plague victims in the 14th century Lübeck. Neither catastrophic mortality was found in the material studied, nor selective nature of the plague with regard to sex and age had been demonstrated. Using the Weiss method, the rate of natural increase r=–0.005 was reconstructed. With the wide dating range of the ossuary and the fact that it contains results of both the epidemic and “normal” mortality, the natural increase value at this level seems justified. There was a deterioration in the values of life tables parameters, especially life expectancy. Newborn life expectancy dropped to 19.5–22.6 years and for a 20-year-old to 17.7 years. The measures of opportunity for natural selection also deteriorated primarily due to child mortality: the biological state index Ibs values were low (within the 0.3–0.4 range) and values of the Im Crow’s index about 1.0. Natural selection also acted on adults as evidenced by values of the gross potential reproduction rate Rpot below 0.7. Demographically the study sample was at the level of the early Middle Ages rather than the Rennaisance.

Historic and bioarchaeological evidence supports late onset of post-Columbian epidemics in Native California

Catastrophic decline of Indigenous populations in the Americas following European contact is one of the most severe demographic events in the history of humanity, but uncertainty persists about the timing and scale of the collapse, which has implications for not only Indigenous history but also the understanding of historical ecology. A long-standing hypothesis that a continent-wide pandemic broke out immediately upon the arrival of Spanish seafarers has been challenged in recent years by a model of regional epidemics erupting asynchronously, causing different rates of population decline in different areas. Some researchers have suggested that, in California, significant depopulation occurred during the first two centuries of the post-Columbus era, which led to a "rebound" in native flora and fauna by the time of sustained European contact after 1769. Here, we combine a comprehensive prehistoric osteological dataset (n = 10,256 individuals) with historic mission mortuary records (n = 23,459 individuals) that together span from 3050 cal BC to AD 1870 to systematically evaluate changes in mortality over time by constructing life tables and conducting survival analysis of age-at-death records. Results show that a dramatic shift in the shape of mortality risk consistent with a plague-like population structure began only after sustained contact with European invaders, when permanent Spanish settlements and missions were established ca. AD 1770. These declines reflect the syndemic effects of newly introduced diseases and the severe cultural disruption of Indigenous lifeways by the Spanish colonial system.

Endemic violence in a pre-Hispanic Andean community: A bioarchaeological study of cranial trauma from the Majes Valley, Peru

OBJECTIVES

This study examines violence-related cranial trauma frequencies and wound characteristics in the pre-Hispanic cemetery of Uraca in the lower Majes Valley, Arequipa, Peru, dating to the pre- and early-Wari periods (200-750 CE). Cranial wounds are compared between status and sex-based subgroups to understand how violence shaped, and was shaped by, these aspects of identity, and to reconstruct the social contexts of violence carried out by and against Uracans.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Presence, location, and characteristics (lethality, penetration, and post-traumatic sequelae) of antemortem and perimortem cranial fractures are documented for 145 crania and compared between subgroups. Cranial wounds are mapped in ArcGIS and the locational distribution of injuries is compared between male and female crania.

RESULTS

Middle adult males were disproportionately interred at Uraca, particularly in the elite Sector I. The Uraca mortuary population presents the highest rate of cranial trauma reported for pre-Hispanic Peru: 67% of adults present trauma, and among those, 61.1% present more than one cranial injury. Males exhibit significantly more cranial trauma than females and present a higher mean number of injuries per person. Elite males show the highest mean number of injuries per person, more antemortem injuries, and are the only ones with perimortem cranial trauma, bladed injuries, penetrating injuries, and post-traumatic sequelae. Both sexes were most frequently injured on the anterior of the cranium, while the proportion of posterior injuries was higher for females.

DISCUSSION

The rate, intensity, and locational patterns of cranial trauma suggests the community was engaged in raids and/or war with enemy groups, some of which may have increased physical violence between community members. Engaging in violence was likely a prerequisite for burial in the elite sector and was bound up with the generation and maintenance of social status differences linked to male social life.

A random walk with catastrophes

Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population dynamics with linear growth and binomial catastrophes: in a catastrophe, each individual survives with some fixed probability, independently of the rest. Through a coupling construction, we obtain sharp two-sided bounds for the rate of convergence to stationarity which are applied to show that the model exhibits a cutoff phenomenon.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period.

Evidence of interpersonal violence or a special funeral rite in the Neolithic multiple burial from Koszyce in southern Poland – a forensic analysis

This study uses anthropological and forensic medical analyses to determine the cause of fractures found in the remains of 15 individuals buried at a site associated with the Globular Amphora Culture (2875-2670 BC). The intent was to determine the mechanism underlying the injuries and to indicate the types of tools that might have inflicted the blows. The fractures were diversified in their forms, but the majority of the injuries appear to have been inflicted by a flint axe, which is frequently found in graves of the Globular Amphora Culture. Apart from the forearm being severed in one of the victims, all the remaining skeletons showed from 1 to 4 injuries involving solely the skulls. The grave might contain victims attacked by invaders who executed the captives, or else the feature is ritual in character and it reflects the beliefs of the Neolithic community.

Host demise as a beneficial function of indigenous microbiota in human hosts

The age structure of human populations is exceptional among animal species. Unlike with most species, human juvenility is extremely extended, and death is not coincident with the end of the reproductive period. We examine the age structure of early humans with models that reveal an extraordinary balance of human fertility and mortality. We hypothesize that the age structure of early humans was maintained by mechanisms incorporating the programmed death of senescent individuals, including by means of interactions with their indigenous microorganisms. First, before and during reproductive life, there was selection for microbes that preserve host function through regulation of energy homeostasis, promotion of fecundity, and defense against competing high-grade pathogens. Second, we hypothesize that after reproductive life, there was selection for organisms that contribute to host demise. While deleterious to the individual, the presence of such interplay may be salutary for the overall host population in terms of resource utilization, resistance to periodic diminutions in the food supply, and epidemics due to high-grade pathogens. We provide deterministic mathematical models based on age-structured populations that illustrate the dynamics of such relationships and explore the relevant parameter values within which population viability is maintained. We argue that the age structure of early humans was robust in its balance of the juvenile, reproductive-age, and senescent classes. These concepts are relevant to issues in modern human longevity, including inflammation-induced neoplasia and degenerative diseases of the elderly, which are a legacy of human evolution.

IMPORTANCE

The extended longevity of modern humans is a very recent societal artifact, although it is inherent in human evolution. The age structure of early humans was balanced by fertility and mortality, with an exceptionally prolonged juvenility. We examined the role of indigenous microbes in early humans as fundamental contributors to this age structure. We hypothesize that the human microbiome evolved mechanisms specific to the mortality of senescent individuals among early humans because their mortality contributed to the stability of the general population. The hypothesis that we present provides new bases for modern medical problems, such as inflammation-induced neoplasia and degenerative diseases of the elderly. We postulate that these mechanisms evolved because they contributed to the stability of early human populations, but their legacy is now a burden on human longevity in the changed modern world.

Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death

The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348-1350

Recent research has shown that preexisting health condition affected an individual's risk of dying during the 14th-century Black Death. However, a previous study of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality during the epidemic failed to find a relationship between the two; this result is perhaps surprising given the well-documented inverse association between stature and mortality in human populations. We suggest that the previous study used an analytical approach that was more complex than was necessary for an assessment of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality. This study presents a reanalysis of data on adult stature and age-at-death during the Black Death in London, 1348-1350 AD. The results indicate that short stature increased risks of mortality during the medieval epidemic, consistent with previous work that revealed a negative effect of poor health on risk of mortality during the Black Death. However, the results from a normal, non-epidemic mortality comparison sample do not show an association between stature and risks of mortality among adults under conditions of normal mortality. Fisher's exact tests, used to determine whether individuals who were growing during the Great Famine of 1315-1322 were more likely to be of short stature than those who did not endure the famine, revealed no differences between the two groups, suggesting that the famine was not a source of variation in stature among those who died during the Black Death.

Age Patterns of Mortality During the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350

This paper examines adult age-specific mortality patterns of one of the most devastating epidemics in recorded history, the Black Death of A.D. 1347-351. The goal was to determine whether the epidemic affected all ages equally or if it targeted certain age groups. Analyses were done using a sample of 337 individuals excavated from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, which contains only individuals who died during the Black Death in London in 1349-1350. The age patterns from East Smithfield were compared to a sample of 207 individuals who died from non-epidemic causes of mortality. Ages were estimated using the method of transition analysis, and age-specific mortality was evaluated using a hazards model. The results indicate that the risk of mortality during the Black Death increased with adult age, and therefore that age had an effect on risk of death during the epidemic. The age patterns in the Black Death cemetery were similar to those from the non-epidemic mortality sample. The results from this study are consistent with previous findings suggesting that despite the devastating nature of the Black Death, the 14(th)-century disease had general patterns of selectivity that were similar to those associated with normal medieval mortality.

Cholera and typhoid fever in 19th-century Bielitzer Zion

This study outlines an analysis of selected anthropo-demographic data of Der Bielitzer Zion population from parish registers and historical sources. The analysis focuses on three epidemics: cholera (two) and typhoid fever (one) which took place in mid-19th century in Bielitz. The aim of this paper is to explore the demographic structure of the fatalities due to the epidemics and to propose possible causes of any variations. Analysis shows the divergence in the age structure of deceased parishioners between the normal and epidemic years. Also, similar outbreaks of infection but of different pathogenesis could lead to observable discrepancies in the overall demographics of the deceased. In the case of cholera: more fatal cases were seen in the city, a higher frequency of deaths occurred in Bielitz females, the disease occurred only in the warm months and the outbreaks were of short duration. For typhoid fever: more fatal cases were seen in the peri-urban villages, a higher frequency of deaths occurred in the female of the peri-urban villages and the outbreak was of long duration. Frequencies and mortality rates of the above causes of death were compared with younger, more advanced populations. The similarities between these groups suggest a high socio-economical status of Bielitzer Zion.

Selectivity of black death mortality with respect to preexisting health

Was the mortality associated with the deadliest known epidemic in human history, the Black Death of 1347-1351, selective with respect to preexisting health conditions ("frailty")? Many researchers have assumed that the Black Death was so virulent, and the European population so immunologically naïve, that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, irrespective of age, sex, or frailty. If this were true, Black Death cemeteries would provide unbiased cross-sections of demographic and epidemiological conditions in 14th-century Europe. Using skeletal remains from medieval England and Denmark, new methods of paleodemographic age estimation, and a recent multistate model of selective mortality, we test the assumption that the mid-14th-century Black Death killed indiscriminately. Skeletons from the East Smithfield Black Death cemetery in London are compared with normal, nonepidemic cemetery samples from two medieval Danish towns (Viborg and Odense). The results suggest that the Black Death did not kill indiscriminately-that it was, in fact, selective with respect to frailty, although probably not as strongly selective as normal mortality.

Brief and precarious lives: Infant mortality in contrasting sites from medieval and post-medieval England (AD 850–1859)

This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles.At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births at the site (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).

Has the transition to agriculture reshaped the demographic structure of prehistoric populations? New evidence from the Levant

This paper presents the demographic changes that followed the transition from a hunting-gathering way of life (Natufian) to an agricultural, food-producing economy (Neolithic) in the southern Levant. The study is based on 217 Natufian (10,500-8,300 BC) skeletons and 262 Neolithic (8,300-5,500 BC) skeletons. Age and sex identification were carried out, and life tables were constructed. A five-parameter competing hazard model developed by Siler ([1979] Ecology 60:750-757) was used to smooth life-table data. No indication of increased mortality with the advent of agriculture was noted. On the contrary, both life expectancy at birth (24.6 vs. 25.5 years) and adults' mean age at death (31.2 vs. 32.1 years) increased slightly from the Natufian to the Neolithic period (assuming stationary populations). Yet the transition to agriculture affected males and females differently: mean age at death in the Natufian was higher for adult females compared to adult males, while in the Neolithic, it was the reverse. One interpretation given to the distribution of female ages at death is that with the onset of the Neolithic period, maternal mortality increased as a result of a concomitant increase in fertility. If the adoption of agriculture in the Levant increased the rate of population growth at the beginning of the Neolithic, expectation of life may have increased dramatically.

Reconstructing relationships among mortality, status, and gender at the Medieval Gilbertine Priory of St. Andrew, Fishergate, York

The varied relationships among status, gender, and mortality are complex, historically produced phenomena that shape people's lives and deaths in socially meaningful ways. Paleodemographic analysis coupled with acute sensitivity to site-specific context has the potential to move us toward a greater understanding of these experiences in the past. After considering the potential effects of migration and fertility on the age-at-death profiles of adult individuals interred at the Gilbertine Priory of St. Andrew, Fishergate, York (n = 200), it is asserted that these profiles primarily reveal expected and unexpected relationships among status, gender, and mortality in this Medieval context. Collectively, the long lives of religious-status males compared to other composite and gendered status groups suggest that they experienced a relatively comfortable existence despite periodic complaints of destitution. The postulated demographic advantage of high-status males did not materialize in the analysis, and a reevaluation of the skeletal evidence indicates that nearly 20% of these individuals died violently. Unexpectedly, moderate-status females shared a mortality profile similar to that of religious-status males and retained a demographic advantage over all other secular status groups. In contrast to the experiences of moderate-status females, low-status females had, on average, the shortest lives at St. Andrew's. This pattern is intimately linked to their restriction from crucial social and economic resources, and provides further evidence of their marginalization in York's wage-labor economy. Overall, these relationships suggest that traditional, highly stratified and gendered notions of Medieval status and mortality are not adequate for understanding the intricacies of everyday life and death at St. Andrew's.

Paleodemographic comparison of a catastrophic and an attritional death assemblage

The aim of this contribution is to examine the effect of an indiscriminate epidemic on a population to assess whether or not a catastrophic event can be identified from examination of paleodemographic data. Using paleodemographic techniques, the death assemblage from the Royal Mint site, London, a Black Death cemetery dated 1349 AD, is compared with that from St. Helen-on-the-Walls, York, which dates from the twelfth to the sixteenth centuries AD. The Royal Mint site represents a catastrophic cemetery, while that of St. Helen-on-the-Walls is of an attritional type. Certain features of the paleodemographic profile of the plague victims suggest that the population had been affected by factors other than natural wastage. Three factors are proposed which may define an indiscriminate catastrophic event in preindustrial populations.