Evaluation of risk scores as predictors of mortality and hospital length of stay for older COVID-19 patients

Evolution of serious and life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed: an observational study of mortality to 60 days after admission to a 15-hospital US health system

OBJECTIVE

In order to predict at hospital admission the prognosis of patients with serious and life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia, we sought to understand the clinical characteristics of hospitalised patients at admission as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, document their changing response to the virus and its variants over time, and identify factors most importantly associated with mortality after hospital admission.

DESIGN

Observational study using a prospective hospital systemwide COVID-19 database.

SETTING

15-hospital US health system.

PARTICIPANTS

26 872 patients admitted with COVID-19 to our Northeast Ohio and Florida hospitals from 1 March 2020 to 1 June 2022.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

60-day mortality (highest risk period) after hospital admission analysed by random survival forests machine learning using demographics, medical history, and COVID-19 vaccination status, and viral variant, symptoms, and routine laboratory test results obtained at hospital admission.

RESULTS

Hospital mortality fell from 11% in March 2020 to 3.7% in March 2022, a 66% decrease (p<0.0001); 60-day mortality fell from 17% in May 2020 to 4.7% in May 2022, a 72% decrease (p<0.0001). Advanced age was the strongest predictor of 60-day mortality, followed by admission laboratory test results. Risk-adjusted 60-day mortality had all patients been admitted in March 2020 was 15% (CI 3.0% to 28%), and had they all been admitted in May 2022, 12% (CI 2.2% to 23%), a 20% decrease (p<0.0001). Dissociation between observed and predicted decrease in mortality was related to temporal change in admission patient profile, particularly in laboratory test results, but not vaccination status or viral variant.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital mortality from COVID-19 decreased substantially as the pandemic evolved but persisted after hospital discharge, eclipsing hospital mortality by 50% or more. However, after accounting for the many, even subtle, changes across the pandemic in patients' demographics, medical history and particularly admission laboratory results, a patient admitted early in the pandemic and predicted to be at high risk would remain at high risk of mortality if admitted tomorrow.

Do-Not-ResuscitateDecision-Making during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Teaching Hospital: Lessons Learned for the Future

Method

A cross-sectional survey study was conducted between February 2021 and April 2021 for all doctors and doctors in training, working in the Antwerp University Hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

127 doctors participated in this study. The familiarity with the different scores used in the triage during the COVID-10 pandemic was 51% for the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and 20% for the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Participants indicated that their DNR decision is based on various aspects such as clinical assessment, comorbidities, patient's wishes, age, prognosis, and functional state.

Conclusion

The familiarity with the different scores used during triage assessments is low. The total clinical picture of the patient is needed to make a considered decision, and this total picture of the patient seems to be well encompassed by frailty measurement (CFS). Although many participants indicated that the different scores do not offer much added value compared to their clinical assessment, it can help guide DNR decisions, especially for doctors in training.

Effect of ultrasound-guided thoracic paravertebral block on perioperative analgesia in elderly patients undergoing video-assisted thoracic lobectomy in China: An interventional clinical randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate the analgesic effect and safety of ultrasound-guided thoracic paravertebral block (UG-TPVB) in Chinese elderly patients undergoing video-assisted thoracic lobectomy (VATL) and to study the influence of aging factors on these effects.

METHODS

This study was a single-center, single-blind, prospective, randomized, controlled trial. A total of 300 patients scheduled for VATL were recruited and randomly divided into the UG-TPVB group (T group) and conventional anesthesia group (C group) according to the recruitment order, and subgroups were set up according to whether the age was ≥65 years old or not. The postoperative 12, 24, and 48 h static/dynamic visual analog scale (VAS) scores, intraoperative fentanyl consumption, postoperative extubation time, post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) stay time, hospitalization days, postoperative complications, and other indicators were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The postoperative 12, 24, and 48 h static/dynamic VAS scores of the T group were significantly lower than those of the C group. The intraoperative fentanyl consumption, postoperative extubation time, PACU stay time, and postoperative hospitalization days were significantly lower than those of the C group. The incidence of postoperative 48 h urinary retention in the T group was significantly lower than that in the C group. These advantages showed no significant difference or slight difference between elderly patients and nonelderly patients, indicating that UG-TPVB did not influence the analgesic effect and safety of VATL patients by age or age difference.

CONCLUSION

UG-TPVB is an effective and safe perioperative analgesia method for elderly VATL patients. Its application improves the quality of life and prognosis of elderly VATL patients.

[Risk factors for mortality from COVID-19 Omicron variant: Retrospective analysis in elderly from the Canary Islands]

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the elderly population has had the highest rates of complications and mortality. This study aimed to determine the influence of different risk factors on deaths due to the Omicron variant in the Canary Islands.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective observational study of 16,998 cases of COVID-19 over 40 years of age was conducted in the Canary Islands between August 1, 2022, and January 31, 2023. We extracted sociodemographic data (age and sex) and clinical data (death, vaccination history, hospital admission, previous diseases, and treatments).

RESULTS

Among the deaths, there was a higher proportion of males aged over 70 years, with diabetes, cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, and systemic diseases, and nursing home residents. Significant differences were observed in the number of doses of the vaccine. The multiple regression model showed that male sex (OR [95% CI]=1.92 [1.42-2.58]), age (70-79 years, 9.11 [4.27-19.43]; 80-89 years, 21.72 [10.40-45.36]; 90-99 years, 66.24 [31.03-141.38]; 100 years or older, 69.22 [12.97-369.33]), being unvaccinated (6.96, [4.01-12.08]), or having the last dose administered at least 12 months before the diagnosis (2.38, [1.48-3.81]) were significantly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple factors may increase the risk of mortality due to COVID-19 in the elderly population. In our study, we found that only three predictors can effectively explain the variability: older age, male sex, and not being vaccinated or last vaccination date prior to one year.

COVID-19 and metabolic syndrome

Convergence of the two pandemics: metabolic syndrome and COVID-19 over last two years has posed unprecedented challenges to individuals as well as healthcare systems. Epidemiological data suggest a close association between metabolic syndrome and COVID-19 while variety of possible pathogenic connections have been proposed while some have been proven. Despite the evidence of high risk for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in people with metabolic syndrome, little is known about the differences in efficacy and safety among people with metabolic syndrome and without. It is important to recognize that among people with metabolic syndrome This review summarizes the current knowledge and epidemiological evidence on the association between metabolic syndrome and adverse COVID-19 outcomes, pathogenic interrelationships, management considerations for acute COVID-19 and post-COVID sequalae and sustaining care of people living with metabolic syndrome with appraisal of evidence and gaps in knowledge.