Separating the Bruce and Trivers-Willard effects in theory and in human data

Income, stress, and sex ratios over 1895-2010

The medical literature has shown that populations under high stress have a lower sex ratio at birth (i.e. number of males for every 100 females). In this paper, I examine the relationship between income, as a source of economic stress, and the sex ratio at a subnational level for the 1895-2010 period. For this, I use census microdata from Argentina -a developing country that experienced rapid growth at the end of the 19th century and stagnated in recent decades- and I estimate from a two-way fixed effects model that exploits the wide temporal and geographic variability in income. The results show that as per capita income increases, the sex ratio at birth also increases. In particular, for every US$ 1,000 increase in per capita income, the sex ratio increases between 0.3 and 0.6 points. These findings make it possible to quantify the lost boys (i.e. those boys who were not born due to high economic stress on their parents) and constitute a call for attention in favor of the implementation of prenatal care policies -especially in periods of stagnation or income decline- to maintain a more balanced sex ratio.

Observable variations in human sex ratio at birth

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB), defined as the ratio between the number of newborn boys to the total number of newborns, is typically slightly greater than 1/2 (more boys than girls) and tends to vary across different geographical regions and time periods. In this large-scale study, we sought to validate previously-reported associations and test new hypotheses using statistical analysis of two very large datasets incorporating electronic medical records (EMRs). One of the datasets represents over half (∼ 150 million) of the US population for over 8 years (IBM Watson Health MarketScan insurance claims) while another covers the entire Swedish population (∼ 9 million) for over 30 years (the Swedish National Patient Register). After testing more than 100 hypotheses, we showed that neither dataset supported models in which the SRB changed seasonally or in response to variations in ambient temperature. However, increased levels of a diverse array of air and water pollutants, were associated with lower SRBs, including increased levels of industrial and agricultural activity, which served as proxies for water pollution. Moreover, some exogenous factors generally considered to be environmental toxins turned out to induce higher SRBs. Finally, we identified new factors with signals for either higher or lower SRBs. In all cases, the effect sizes were modest but highly statistically significant owing to the large sizes of the two datasets. We suggest that while it was unlikely that the associations have arisen from sex-specific selection mechanisms, they are still useful for the purpose of public health surveillance if they can be corroborated by empirical evidences.

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB), usually slightly greater than 1/2, have been reported to vary in response to a wide array of exogenous factors. In the literature, many such factors have been posited to be associated with higher or lower SRBs, but the studies conducted so far have focused on no more than a few factors at a time and used far smaller datasets, thus prone to generating spurious correlations. We performed a series of statistical tests on 2 large, country-wide health datasets representing the United States and Sweden to investigate associations between putative exogenous factors and the SRB, and were able to validate a set of previously-reported associations while also discovering new signals. We propose to interpret these results simply as public health indicators awaiting further empirical confirmation rather than as implicated in (adaptive) sexual selection mechanisms.

Unexplained repeated pregnancy loss is associated with altered perceptual and brain responses to men's body-odor

Mammalian olfaction and reproduction are tightly linked, a link less explored in humans. Here, we asked whether human unexplained repeated pregnancy loss (uRPL) is associated with altered olfaction, and particularly altered olfactory responses to body-odor. We found that whereas most women with uRPL could identify the body-odor of their spouse, most control women could not. Moreover, women with uRPL rated the perceptual attributes of men's body-odor differently from controls. These pronounced differences were accompanied by an only modest albeit significant advantage in ordinary, non-body-odor-related olfaction in uRPL. Next, using structural and functional brain imaging, we found that in comparison to controls, most women with uRPL had smaller olfactory bulbs, yet increased hypothalamic response in association with men's body-odor. These findings combine to suggest altered olfactory perceptual and brain responses in women experiencing uRPL, particularly in relation to men's body-odor. Whether this link has any causal aspects to it remains to be explored.

Reproductive suppression and longevity in human birth cohorts

OBJECTIVES

Reproductive suppression refers to, among other phenomena, the termination of pregnancies in populations exposed to signals of death among young conspecifics. Extending the logic of reproduction suppression to humans has implications for health including that populations exposed to it should exhibit relatively great longevity. No research, however, has tested this prediction.

METHODS

We apply time-series methods to vital statistics from Sweden for the years 1751 through 1800 to test if birth cohorts exposed in utero to reproductive suppression exhibited lifespan different from expected. We use the odds of death among Swedes age 1 to 9 years to gauge exposure. As the dependent variable, we use cohort life expectancy. Our methods ensure autocorrelation cannot spuriously induce associations nor reduce the efficiency of our estimates.

RESULTS

Our findings imply that reproductive suppression increased the lifespan of 24 annual birth cohorts by at least 1.3 years over the 50-year test period, and that 12 of those cohorts exhibited increases of at least 1.7 years above expected.

CONCLUSIONS

The best available data in which to search for evidence of reproductive suppression in humans support the argument that populations subjected to environments dangerous for children yield birth cohorts that exhibit unexpectedly great longevity.

Sex ratios at birth vary with environmental harshness but not maternal condition

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) may be patterned by maternal condition and/or environmental stressors. However, despite decades of research, empirical results from across the social and biological sciences are equivocal on this topic. Using longitudinal individual-level data from a US population during the interwar period (1918-1939), inclusive of three distinct eras (Spanish Flu, Roaring '20 s, and the Great Depression), we evaluate predictions from two theoretical frameworks used to study patterning in SRB - (1) 'frail males' and (2) adaptive sex-biased investment theory (Trivers-Willard). The first approach centers on greater male susceptibility to exogenous stressors and argues that offspring survival should be expected to differ between 'good' and 'bad' times. The second approach contends that mothers themselves play a direct role in manipulating offspring SRB, and that those in better condition should invest more in sons. In-line with 'frail male' predictions, we find that boys are less likely to be born during the environmentally challenging times of the Spanish Flu and Great Depression. However, we find no evidence that maternal condition is associated with sex ratios at birth, a result inconsistent with the Trivers-Willard hypothesis.

Male-mediated prenatal loss: Functions and mechanisms

Sexually selected infanticide has been the subject of intense empirical and theoretical study for decades; a related phenomenon, male-mediated prenatal loss, has received much less attention in evolutionary studies. Male-mediated prenatal loss occurs when inseminated or pregnant females terminate reproductive effort following exposure to a nonsire male, either through implantation failure or pregnancy termination. Male-mediated prenatal loss encompasses two sub-phenomena: sexually selected feticide and the Bruce effect. In this review, we provide a framework that explains the relationship between feticide and the Bruce effect and describes what is known about the proximate and ultimate mechanisms involved in each. Using a simple model, we demonstrate that male-mediated prenatal loss can provide greater reproductive benefits to males than infanticide. We therefore suggest that, compared to infanticide, male-mediated prenatal loss may be more prevalent in mammalian species and may have played a greater role in their social evolution than has previously been documented.

Selection in utero and population health: Theory and typology of research

Public health researchers may assume, based on the fetal origins literature, that "scarring" of birth cohorts describes the population response to modern-day stressors. We contend, based on extensive literature concerned with selection in utero, that this assumption remains questionable. At least a third and likely many more of human conceptions fail to yield a live birth. Those that survive to birth, moreover, do not represent their conception cohort. Increasing data availability has led to an improved understanding of selection in utero and its implications for population health. The literature describing selection in utero, however, receives relatively little attention from social scientists. We aim to draw attention to the rich theoretical and empirical literature on selection in utero by offering a typology that organizes this diverse work along dimensions we think important, if not familiar, to those studying population health. We further use the typology to identify important gaps in the literature. This work should interest social scientists for two reasons. First, phenomena of broad scholarly interest (i.e., social connectivity, bereavement) affect the extent and timing of selection in utero. Second, the life-course health of a cohort depends in part on the strength of such selection. We conclude by identifying new research directions and with a reconciliation of the apparent contradiction between the "fetal origins" literature and that describing selection in utero.