Bayes in biological anthropology

Adult mortality in the metropolis of London 1100-1850: A Bayesian view based on osteological data

OBJECTIVES

The present paper highlights the potential of osteological data for answering demographic questions through the development and application of a Bayesian approach incorporating age estimations of adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The metropolis of London is a rewarding study region for such an approach due to the large number of cemeteries, with thousands of individuals, spanning a period from 1100 AD to the mid-19th century, that have been excavated and published in the past two decades. Furthermore, London has a rich tradition of early written records on mortality that can be used for comparison purposes. In order to gain comparable results from the different source categories, we use a Bayesian framework in which the Gompertz distribution features centrally.

RESULTS

Our intensive simulations show that the Bayesian approach performs better than maximum likelihood estimation or ordinary least squares in terms of recovering the original age distribution parameters. They also show how strongly population growth affects mortality patterns. The osteological data suggests that during medieval times and the Early Modern period, the modal age-at-death of the general population of London remained more or less constant and hovered around 30 years, and that only monks showed a higher modal age, of about 45 years. However, from the 17th century onwards, life expectancy of adults increased markedly.

DISCUSSION

Our comparison of written sources and osteological data demonstrates their general comparability and highlights the much higher mortality among adults in London than in the rest of England and Wales. We conclude that Bayesian modeling has great potential for recovering true mortality patterns from osteological data.

Age estimation from iliac auricular surface using Bayesian inference and principal component analysis: a CT-based study in an Indian population

Age estimation constitutes one of the pillars of human identification. The auricular surface of the ilium presents as a durable and robust structure within the human skeletal framework, capable of enabling accurate age estimation in older adults. Amongst different documented auricular age estimation methods, the Buckberry-Chamberlain method offers greater objectivity through its component-based approach. The present study aimed to test the applicability of the Buckberry-Chamberlain method in an Indian population through a CT-based examination of the auricular surface. CT scans of 435 participants undergoing CT examinations following the advice of their treating physicians were scrutinized for different age-related auricular changes. Three of the five morphological features described by Buckberry-Chamberlain could be appreciated on CT scans, and thus further statistical analysis was restricted to these features. Transition analysis coupled with Bayesian inference was undertaken individually for each feature to enable age estimation from individual features, while circumventing age mimicry. A Bayesian analysis of individual features yielded highest accuracy percentages (98.64%) and error rates (12.99 years) with macroporosity. Transverse organization and apical changes yielded accuracy percentages of 91.67% and 94.84%, respectively, with inaccuracy computations of 10.18 years and 11.74 years, respectively. Summary age models, i.e. multivariate age estimation models, derived by taking this differential accuracy and inaccuracy into consideration yielded a reduced inaccuracy value of 8.52 years. While Bayesian analysis undertaken within the present study enables age estimation from individual morphological features, summary age models appropriately weigh all appreciable features to yield more accurate and reliable estimates of age.

Applicability of the Suchey-Brooks method for age estimation in an Indian population: A computed tomography-based exploration using Bayesian analysis and machine learning

Age estimation occupies a prominent niche in the identification process. In cases where skeletal remains present for examination, age is often estimated from markers distributed throughout the skeletal framework. Within the pelvis, the pubic symphysis constitutes one of the more commonly utilized skeletal markers for age estimation, with the Suchey-Brooks method comprising one of the more commonly employed methods for pubic symphyseal age estimation. The present study was targeted towards assessing the applicability of the Suchey-Brooks method for pubic symphyseal age estimation, an aspect largely unreported for an Indian population. In order to do so, clinically undertaken pelvic computed tomography scans of individuals were evaluated using the Suchey-Brooks method, and the error associated with the method was established using Bayesian analysis and different machine learning regression models. Amongst different supervised machine learning models, support vector regression and random forest furnished lowest error computations in both sexes. Using both Bayesian analysis and machine learning, lower error computations were observed in females, suggesting that the method demonstrates greater applicability for this sex. Inaccuracy and root mean square error obtained with Bayesian analysis and machine learning illustrates that both statistical modalities furnish comparable error computations for pubic symphyseal age estimation using the Suchey-Brooks method. However, given the numerous advantages associated with machine learning, it is recommended to use the same within medicolegal settings. Error computations obtained with the Suchey-Brooks method, regardless of the statistical modality utilized, indicate that the method should be used in amalgamation with additional markers to garner accurate estimates of age.

An evaluation of the three-component pubic symphyseal human age estimation method: a CT-based exploration in an Indian population

Age estimation constitutes an important facet of human identification within forensic, bioarchaeological, repatriation, and humanitarian contexts. Within the human skeletal framework, the pubic symphysis comprises one of the more commonly utilized structures for age estimation. The present investigation was aimed at establishing the applicability of the McKern-Stewart pubic symphyseal age estimation method in males and females of an Indian population, an aspect previously unreported. Three hundred and eighty clinical CT scans of the pubic symphysis were collected and scored in accordance with the McKern-Stewart method. An overall accuracy of 68.90% was obtained on applying the method to males, demonstrating a limited applicability of the method in its primal form. Subsequently, Bayesian analysis was undertaken to enable accurate age estimation from individual components in both sexes. Bayesian parameters obtained with females suggest that McKern-Stewart's components fail to accommodate for age-related changes within the female pubic bone. Improved accuracy percentages and reduced inaccuracy values were obtained with Bayesian analysis in males. With females, the error computations were high. Weighted summary age models were utilized for multivariate age estimation, and furnished inaccuracy values of 11.51 years (males) and 17.92 years (females). Error computations obtained with descriptive analysis, Bayesian analysis, and principal component analysis demonstrate the limited applicability of McKern-Stewart's components in generating accurate age profiles for Indian males and females. The onset and progression of age-related changes within the male and female pubic bone may be of interest to biological anthropologists and anatomists involved in exploring the underlying basis for aging.

Mixed cumulative probit: a multivariate generalization of transition analysis that accommodates variation in the shape, spread and structure of data

Biological data are frequently nonlinear, heteroscedastic and conditionally dependent, and often researchers deal with missing data. To account for characteristics common in biological data in one algorithm, we developed the mixed cumulative probit (MCP), a novel latent trait model that is a formal generalization of the cumulative probit model usually used in transition analysis. Specifically, the MCP accommodates heteroscedasticity, mixtures of ordinal and continuous variables, missing values, conditional dependence and alternative specifications of the mean response and noise response. Cross-validation selects the best model parameters (mean response and the noise response for simple models, as well as conditional dependence for multivariate models), and the Kullback-Leibler divergence evaluates information gain during posterior inference to quantify mis-specified models (conditionally dependent versus conditionally independent). Two continuous and four ordinal skeletal and dental variables collected from 1296 individuals (aged birth to 22 years) from the Subadult Virtual Anthropology Database are used to introduce and demonstrate the algorithm. In addition to describing the features of the MCP, we provide material to help fit novel datasets using the MCP. The flexible, general formulation with model selection provides a process to robustly identify the modelling assumptions that are best suited for the data at hand.

Missing data in bioarchaeology II: A test of ordinal and continuous data imputation

OBJECTIVES

Previous research has shown that while missing data are common in bioarchaeological studies, they are seldom handled using statistically rigorous methods. The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the ability of imputation to manage missing data and encourage the use of advanced statistical methods in bioarchaeology and paleopathology. An overview of missing data management in biological anthropology is provided, followed by a test of imputation and deletion methods for handling missing data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Missing data were simulated on complete datasets of ordinal (n = 287) and continuous (n = 369) bioarchaeological data. Missing values were imputed using five imputation methods (mean, predictive mean matching, random forest, expectation maximization, and stochastic regression) and the success of each at obtaining the parameters of the original dataset compared with pairwise and listwise deletion.

RESULTS

In all instances, listwise deletion was least successful at approximating the original parameters. Imputation of continuous data was more effective than ordinal data. Overall, no one method performed best and the amount of missing data proved a stronger predictor of imputation success.

DISCUSSION

These findings support the use of imputation methods over deletion for handling missing bioarchaeological and paleopathology data, especially when the data are continuous. Whereas deletion methods reduce sample size, imputation maintains sample size, improving statistical power and preventing bias from being introduced into the dataset.

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age-at-death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half-century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human-disease interaction, among other topics.

Twenty-first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward

This article presents outcomes from a Workshop entitled "Bioarchaeology: Taking Stock and Moving Forward," which was held at Arizona State University (ASU) on March 6-8, 2020. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the School of Human Evolution and Social Change (ASU), and the Center for Bioarchaeological Research (CBR, ASU), the Workshop's overall goal was to explore reasons why research proposals submitted by bioarchaeologists, both graduate students and established scholars, fared disproportionately poorly within recent NSF Anthropology Program competitions and to offer advice for increasing success. Therefore, this Workshop comprised 43 international scholars and four advanced graduate students with a history of successful grant acquisition, primarily from the United States. Ultimately, we focused on two related aims: (1) best practices for improving research designs and training and (2) evaluating topics of contemporary significance that reverberate through history and beyond as promising trajectories for bioarchaeological research. Among the former were contextual grounding, research question/hypothesis generation, statistical procedures appropriate for small samples and mixed qualitative/quantitative data, the salience of Bayesian methods, and training program content. Topical foci included ethics, social inequality, identity (including intersectionality), climate change, migration, violence, epidemic disease, adaptability/plasticity, the osteological paradox, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Given the profound changes required globally to address decolonization in the 21st century, this concern also entered many formal and informal discussions.

Age estimation in infant skeletal remains by measurements of the pars lateralis

The objectives of this work were to validate two published methods for subadult age estimation based on measurements of the pars lateralis, and to develop a new method based on a wider set of measurements using the Granada Osteological Collection. The pars lateralis of 127 individuals from 6 months prenatal to 4 years of age were measured, taking 6 measurements of the body, the anterior synchondrosis and the condyle. Length and width were used to validate the published methods. Regression functions using age as the independent variable were calculated using each of the six measurements taken, and functions for age estimation were obtained through classical calibration. Functions for calculation of the 95% confidence interval of the estimates were obtained through linear regression using the estimation errors. In the validation of the previous methods, one method showed a linear tendency of the differences, which can be attributed to a circularity in reasoning in the original work. In the other method, a tendency towards overestimation was found, which can be attributed to the limitations of the method itself. The new functions have a consistency rate of 92.2% to 97.1%; the functions derived from all measurements are useful from 6 months prenatal to 2 years of age. Moreover, the functions obtained are applicable to incomplete pars lateralis, allowing for age estimation in a wide set of contexts and providing straightforward age estimates with their respective margin of error.

Interpreting error in the estimation of skeletal growth profiles from past populations: An example demonstrating skeletal growth in historic African American communities

OBJECTIVES

The study of growth in the past is a critical component of bioarcheological analyses. However, our understanding of growth in the past is subject to a number of methodological challenges. This study aims to model the skeletal growth of past populations by considering the challenges associated with the data collection process and the challenges associated with the age estimation procedures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We use skeletal remains from two historic African American cemeteries in the American South to model femoral diaphyseal length-for-age. We estimate the age of each individual using dental development techniques and present growth curves as both a product of the maximum likelihood (MLE) age estimate and the estimated posterior age distribution. Growth was compared against a reference sample from the University of Colorado Child Research Council Study.

RESULTS

The results of our analyses showed that femoral diaphyseal length in two historic African American communities is small-for-estimated age as compared to a modern reference sample. However, the magnitude and characterization of this difference is variable when taking into account the broader posterior age distribution.

DISCUSSION

Both samples may be small-for-age due to physiological stress associated with racism, inequality, and the compounding effects of early urbanization. However, the interpretation of growth in the past is muddled when considering the relationship between the study sample and the reference sample, when accounting for uncertainty in the age estimation procedure, and the error-inducing steps taken during the data collection process. Future interpretation of skeletal growth in the past must include a full account of the possible sources of error in order to present an accurate representation of growth.

Using BayesModelS to provide Bayesian- and phylogenetically-informed primate body mass predictions

An accurate prediction of the body mass of an extinct species can greatly inform the reconstruction of that species' ecology. Therefore, paleontologists frequently predict the body mass of extinct taxa from fossilized materials, particularly dental dimensions. Body mass prediction has traditionally been performed in a frequentist statistical framework, and accounting for phylogenetic relationships while calibrating prediction models has only recently become more commonplace. In this article, we apply BayesModelS-a phylogenetically informed Bayesian prediction method-to predict body mass in a sample of 49 euarchontan species (24 strepsirrhines, 20 platyrrhines, 3 tarsiids, 1 dermopteran, and 1 scandentian) and compare this approach's body mass prediction accuracy with other commonly used techniques, namely ordinary least squares, phylogenetic generalized least squares, and phylogenetic independent contrasts (PICs). When predicting the body masses of extant euarchontans from dental and postcranial variables, BayesModelS and PICs have substantially higher predictive accuracy than ordinary least squares and phylogenetic generalized least squares. The improved performances of BayesModelS and PIC are most evident for dentally derived body mass proxies or when body mass proxies have high degrees of phylogenetic covariance. Predicted values generated by BayesModelS and PIC methods also show less variance across body mass proxies when applied to the Eocene adapiform Notharctus tenebrosus. These more explicitly phylogenetically based methods should prove useful for predicting body mass in a paleontological context, and we provide executive scripts for both BayesModelS and PIC to increase ease of application.

Paleodemographic analysis of age at death for a population of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods

OBJECTIVES

Studies of the demography of past populations involving deterministic life tables can be criticized for ignoring the errors of estimation. Bayesian methods offer an alternative, by focusing on the uncertainty of the estimates, although their results are often sensitive to the choice of prior distributions. The aim of this study is to explore a range of Bayesian methods for estimating age at death for a population of nomadic warriors-Scythians from the Black Sea region.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, skeletons of 312 individuals (93 children and 219 adults) from Glinoe (Moldova), dated to the 5th-2nd century BCE, were examined. We unified the age categories corresponding to different aging methods, allowing an application of a probabilistic assessment of the age categorization. A hierarchical Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet-Dirichlet model was applied, with a hypothetical, subjective reference population, a real reference population, and no reference.

RESULTS

Stationary-population life expectancy was estimated as 27.7 years (95% CI: 25.1-30.3) for a newborn (e₀ ), and 16.4 years (14.0-19.0) for 20-year-olds (e₂₀ ), although with high uncertainty, and sensitive to the model specification. Slight differences in longevity between different social strata and between the Classical and Late chronological periods were found, although with high estimation errors. A more robust finding, confirming earlier studies, was a high probability of death in young adulthood, which could depend on Scythian lifestyle (conflicts, wars).

DISCUSSION

Our study shows a way to overcome some limitations of broad age categorization by using the Bayesian approach with alternative model specifications, allowing to assess the impact of reference populations.

Automated resolution independent method for comparing in vivo and dry trabecular bone

OBJECTIVES

Variation in human trabecular bone morphology can be linked to habitual behavior, but it is difficult to investigate in vivo due to the radiation required at high resolution. Consequently, functional interpretations of trabecular morphology remain inferential. Here we introduce a method to link low- and high-resolution CT data from dry and fresh bone, enabling bone functional adaptation to be studied in vivo and results compared to the fossil and archaeological record.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We examine 51 human dry bone distal tibiae from Nile Valley and UK and two pig tibiae containing soft tissues. We compare low-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) parameters and high-resolution micro CT (μCT) in homologous single slices at 4% bone length and compare results to our novel Bone Ratio Predictor (BRP) method.

RESULTS

Regression slopes between linear attenuation coefficients of low-resolution pQCT images and bone area/total area (BA/TA) of high-resolution μCT scans differ substantially between geographical subsamples, presumably due to diagenesis. BRP accurately predicts BA/TA (R² = .97) and eliminates the geographic clustering. BRP accurately estimates BA/TA in pigs containing soft tissues (R² = 0.98) without requiring knowledge of true density or phantom calibration of the scans.

DISCUSSION

BRP allows automated comparison of image data from different image modalities (pQCT, μCT) using different energy settings, in archeological bone and wet specimens. The method enables low-resolution data generated in vivo to be compared with the fossil and archaeological record. Such experimental approaches would substantially improve behavioral inferences based on trabecular bone microstructure.

Prevalence of cranial trauma in Eurasian Upper Paleolithic humans

OBJECTIVES

This study characterizes patterns of cranial trauma prevalence in a large sample of Upper Paleolithic (UP) fossil specimens (40,000-10,000 BP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our sample comprised 234 individual crania (specimens), representing 1,285 cranial bones (skeletal elements), from 101 Eurasian UP sites. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to assess trauma prevalence in relation to age-at-death, sex, anatomical distribution, and between pre- and post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) samples, while accounting for skeletal preservation.

RESULTS

Models predicted a mean cranial trauma prevalence of 0.07 (95% CI 0.003-0.19) at the level of skeletal elements, and of 0.26 (95% CI 0.08-0.48) at the level of specimens, each when 76-100% complete. Trauma prevalence increased with skeletal preservation. Across specimen and skeletal element datasets, trauma prevalence tended to be higher for males, and was consistently higher in the old age group. We found no time-specific trauma prevalence patterns for the two sexes or age cohorts when comparing samples from before and after the LGM. Samples showed higher trauma prevalence in the vault than in the face, with vault remains being affected predominantly in males.

DISCUSSION

Cranial trauma prevalence in UP humans falls within the variation described for Mesolithic and Neolithic samples. According to our current dataset, UP males and females were exposed to slightly different injury risks and trauma distributions, potentially due to different activities or behaviors, yet both sexes exhibit more trauma among the old. Environmental stressors associated with climatic changes of the LGM are not reflected in cranial trauma prevalence. To analyze trauma in incomplete skeletal remains we propose GLMMs as an informative alternative to crude frequency calculations.

Predicting the bending properties of long bones: Insights from an experimental mouse model

OBJECTIVES

Analyses of bone cross-sectional geometry are frequently used by anthropologists and paleontologists to infer the loading histories of past populations. To address some underlying assumptions, we investigated the relative roles of genetics and exercise on bone cross-sectional geometry and bending mechanics in three mouse strains: high bone density (C3H/He), low bone density (C57BL/6), and a high-runner strain homozygous for the Myh4Minimsc allele (MM).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Weanlings of each strain were divided into exercise (wheel) or control (sedentary) treatment groups for a 7-week experimental period. Morphometrics of the femoral mid-diaphysis and mechanical testing were used to assess both theoretical and ex vivo bending mechanics.

RESULTS

Across all measured morphological and bending traits, we found relatively small effects of exercise treatment compared to larger and more frequent interstrain differences. In the exercised group, total distance run over the experimental period was not a predictor of any morphological or bending traits. Cross-sectional geometry did not accurately predict bone response to loading.

DISCUSSION

Results from this experimental model do not support hypothesized associations among extreme exercise, cross-sectional geometry, and bending mechanics. Our results suggest that analysis of cross-sectional geometry alone is insufficient to predict loading response, and questions the common assumption that cross-sectional geometry differences are indicative of differential loading history.

How should we diagnose disease in palaeopathology? Some epistemological considerations

This paper analyses some of the epistemological frameworks that underpin diagnosis in palaeopathology. Currently, the dominant approach is comparative: relationships between skeletal lesions and disease in a reference group in which there is independent evidence of the diseases present in individuals are used to identify disease in unknown archaeological skeletons on the basis of the lesions present. This is essentially a reference sample - target sample approach, analogous to that used to develop methodology in other areas of biological anthropology (e.g. age estimation in palaeodemography). As well as considerable strengths, this approach also has significant weaknesses. Many of these arise from the nature of the reference material (mainly pathology museum and other skeletal collections, and published collations of medical imaging data) used to develop diagnostic criteria. There may also be a tendency toward over-emphasis on pattern-matching between reference and target material, and an under-emphasis on developing our understanding of the biology of bone lesions. Despite its shortcomings, the comparative approach is likely to remain the foundation of most palaeopathological work, but we should increasingly augment it with other diagnostic approaches, especially those grounded in the pathophysiology of bony responses to disease.

A radiographic study of the mandibular third molar root development in different ethnic groups

BACKGROUND

The nature of differences in the timing of tooth formation between ethnic groups is important when estimating age.

AIM

To calculate age of transition of the mandibular third (M3) molar tooth stages from archived dental radiographs from sub-Saharan Africa, Malaysia, Japan and two groups from London UK (Whites and Bangladeshi).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The number of radiographs was 4555 (2028 males, 2527 females) with an age range 10-25 years. The left M3 was staged into Moorrees stages. A probit model was fitted to calculate mean ages for transitions between stages for males and females and each ethnic group separately. The estimated age distributions given each M3 stage was calculated. To assess differences in timing of M3 between ethnic groups, three models were proposed: a separate model for each ethnic group, a joint model and a third model combining some aspects across groups. The best model fit was tested using Bayesian and Akaikes information criteria (BIC and AIC) and log likelihood ratio test.

RESULTS

Differences in mean ages of M3 root stages were found between ethnic groups, however all groups showed large standard deviation values. The AIC and log likelihood ratio test indicated that a separate model for each ethnic group was best. Small differences were also noted between timing of M3 between males and females, with the exception of the Malaysian group. These findings suggests that features of a reference data set (wide age range and uniform age distribution) and a Bayesian statistical approach are more important than population specific convenience samples to estimate age of an individual using M3.

CONCLUSION

Some group differences were evident in M3 timing, however, this has some impact on the confidence interval of estimated age in females and little impact in males because of the large variation in age.

The applicability of dental wear in age estimation for a modern American population

OBJECTIVES

Though applied in bioarchaeology, dental wear is an underexplored age indicator in the biological anthropology of contemporary populations, although research has been conducted on dental attrition in forensic contexts (Kim et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 45, 303; Prince et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 53, 588; Yun et al., , Journal of Forensic Sciences, 52, 678). The purpose of this study is to apply and adapt existing techniques for age estimation based on dental wear to a modern American population, with the aim of producing accurate age range estimates for individuals from an industrialized context.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Methodologies following Yun and Prince were applied to a random sample from the University of New Mexico (n = 583) and Universidade de Coimbra (n = 50) cast and skeletal collections. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between tooth wear scores and age.

RESULTS

Application of both Yun et al. () and Prince et al. () methodologies resulted in inaccurate age estimates. Recalibrated sectioning points correctly classified individuals as over or under 50 years for 88% of the sample. Linear regression demonstrated 60% of age estimates fell within ±10 years of the actual age, and accuracy improved for individuals under 45 years, with 74% of predictions within ±10 years.

DISCUSSION

This study demonstrates age estimation from dental wear is possible for modern populations, with comparable age intervals to other established methods. It provides a quantifiable method of seriation into "older" and "younger" adult categories, and provides more reliable age interval estimates than cranial sutures in instances where only the skull is available.

A Bayesian Approach to Age-at-Death Estimation from Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder in Modern North Americans

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a marker of degeneration within the skeleton, frequently associated with age. This study quantifies the correlation between OA and age-at-death and investigates the utility of shoulder OA as a forensic age indicator using a modern North American sample of 206 individuals. Lipping, surface porosity, osteophyte formation, eburnation, and percentage of joint surface affected were recorded on an ordinal scale and summed to create composite scores that were assigned a specific phase. Spearman's correlation indicated a positive relationship between each composite score and age (right shoulder = 0.752; left shoulder = 0.734). Transition analysis revealed a tendency toward earlier degeneration of the right shoulder. Bayesian statistics generated phase-related age estimates based on highest posterior density regions. Best age estimates were into the seventh decade at the 90th and 50th percentile. The proposed method supplements traditional techniques by providing age estimates beyond a homogenous 50+ age cohort.

Proposal of new regression formulae for the estimation of age in infant skeletal remains from the metric study of the pars basilaris

In the context of physical and forensic anthropology, when a child's skeleton is damaged or in poor condition, which is common, many of the metric methods for the estimation of skeletal age cannot be used. In these circumstances, those more resistant bones, such as the pars basilaris, will be most useful. The aims of this study were to test existing methods for estimating skeletal age from the metric study of the pars basilaris and to propose new regression formulae. One hundred fourteen individuals aged between 5 months of gestation and 6 years were analyzed; seven measures were taken from each pars basilaris using a digital caliper. The chronological age was compared with the estimated age using the methods published by Fazekas and Kósa in 1978 and by Scheuer and MacLaughlin in 1994. New regression formulae are proposed, obtained by classical calibration, which include confidence intervals at 50 and 97.5 % to express the error. With both methods, significant differences were observed; the method of Fazekas and Kósa shows a tendency to underestimate the age, and the method of Scheuer and MacLaughlin tends to overestimate it. The proposed formulae represent a good tool for estimating age in many different contexts because they are relatively easy to apply, although other analysis systems, such as Bayesian approach or geometric morphometry, offer more robust and effective results.

An informative prior probability distribution of the gompertz parameters for bayesian approaches in paleodemography

OBJECTIVES

In paleodemography, the Bayesian approach has been suggested to provide an effective means by which mortality profiles of past populations can be adequately estimated, and thus avoid problems of "age-mimicry" inherent in conventional approaches. In this study, we propose an application of the Gompertz model using an "informative" prior probability distribution by revising a recent example of the Bayesian approach based on an "uninformative" distribution.

METHODS

Life-table data of 134 human populations including those of contemporary hunter-gatherers were used to determine the Gompertz parameters of each population. In each population, we used both raw life-table data and the Gompertz parameters to calculate some demographic values such as the mean life-span, to confirm representativeness of the model. Then, the correlation between the two Gompertz parameters (the Strehler-Mildvan correlation) was re-established. We incorporated the correlation into the Bayesian approach as an "informative" prior probability distribution, and tested its effectiveness using simulated data.

RESULTS

Our analyses showed that the mean life-span (≥ age 15) and the proportion of living persons aging over 45 were well-reproduced by the Gompertz model. The simulation showed that using the correlation as an informative prior provides a narrower estimation range in the Bayesian approach than does the uninformative prior.

CONCLUSIONS

The Gompertz model can be assumed to accurately estimate the mean life-span and/or the proportion of old people in a population. We suggest that the Strehler-Mildvan correlation can be used as a useful constraint in demographic reconstructions of past human populations.

Controversies in age estimation from developing teeth

BACKGROUND

Numerous dental reference data exist to estimate age from developing permanent teeth.

AIM

To compare the performance of reference data that provide a point estimate using the developing second molar.

METHODS

Performance of several methods estimating age using mandibular second molar formation was compared using the Maber test sample (age = 3-16) of 946 dental radiographs. Mean difference and mean absolute difference between dental and chronological ages were calculated. The percentage of individuals with mean absolute difference <1 year was counted across age group and tooth stage. Results for the choice of Demirjian or Moorrees tooth staging, pooled-sex, opposite sex reference data, selected stages (initial cusp tips, crown complete, root half and root complete) and statistical approaches were compared.

RESULTS

Tooth reference data conditioning on age, particularly probit mean age (age-at-transition) adapted for age prediction performed best. Results using sex-specific reference data, Moorrees stages and selected Moorrees stages were marginally better than other methods. No method performed well for ages 15 and 16 years.

CONCLUSION

Adapted maturity data L9a and N25a reference data for this tooth performed best across age categories and tooth stages, with a mean absolute difference of 0.8 year.

Estimating age of mature adults from the degeneration of the sternal end of the clavicle

The sternal end of the clavicle has been illustrated to be useful in aging young adults, however, no studies have investigated what age-related changes occur to the sternal end post epiphyseal fusion. In this study, three morphological features (i.e., surface topography, porosity, and osteophyte formation) were examined and scored using 564 clavicles of individuals of European ancestry (n = 318 males; n = 246 females), with known ages of 40+ years, from four documented skeletal collections: Hamann-Todd, Pretoria, St. Bride's, and Coimbra. An ordinal scoring method was developed for each of the three traits. Surface topography showed the strongest correlation with age, and composite scores (formed by summing the three separate trait scores) indicated progressive degeneration of the surface with increasing chronological age. Linear regression analyses were performed on the trait scores to produce pooled-sample age estimation equations. Blind tests of the composite score method and regression formulae on 56 individuals, aged 40+ years, from Christ Church Spitalfields, suggest accuracies of 96.4% for both methods. These preliminary results display the first evidence of the utility of the sternal end of the clavicle in aging older adult individuals. However, in the current format, these criteria should only be applied to individuals already identified as over 40 years in order to refine the age ranges used for advanced age. These findings do suggest the sternal end of the clavicle has potential to aid age estimates beyond the traditional "mature adult" age category (i.e., 46+ years), and provides several suggestions for future research.