Graph-Framing Effects in Decision Making

Asymmetrical Property of the Subproportionality of Weighting Function in Prospect Theory: Is It Real and How Can It Be Achieved?

An asymmetrical property of the probability weighting function, namely, subproportionality, was derived from observations. Subproportionality can provide a reasonable explanation for accommodating the Allais paradox and, therefore, deserves replication for its high impact. The present study aimed to explore the mechanism of subproportionality by comparing the two completely opposite decision mechanisms: prospect theory and equate-to-differentiate theory. Results revealed that the underlying mechanism supports the prediction of equate-to-differentiate theory but not prospect theory in the diagnostic stimuli condition. Knowledge regarding which intra-dimensional difference between Options A and B is greater, not knowledge regarding which option’s overall prospect value is greater, indeed predicts option preference. Our findings may deepen current understanding on the mechanisms behind the simple risky choice with a single-non-zero outcome. Additionally, these findings will hopefully encourage subsequent researchers to take a fresh look at the Allais paradox.

Which Information Frame is Best for Reporting News on the COVID-19 Pandemic? An Online Questionnaire Study in China

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has received broad public attention and has been subject to social media discussion since the beginning of 2020. Previous research has demonstrated that framing could influence perception and behaviors of audience members in the mass media. The question addressed in this paper concerns which information frame is best for reporting negative news (eg, deaths) and positive news (eg, recoveries or cures) related to the outbreak of COVID-19.

METHODS

During the Spring Festival holidays of 2020 in China, we investigated a sample of 8170 participants' risk perceptions and emotional responses to the pandemic, and their willingness to forward updates when the information is presented in different frames by using a 2 (domain: living [good news] vs dying [bad news]) × 2 (count: absolute vs relative) × 2 (population base: excluding population base vs including population base) × 2 (content: text-only vs text-plus-graphic) mixed factorial design, with the first factor being a within-subjects factor and the last three being between-subjects factors.

RESULTS

Results indicated that (1) participants were more willing to forward good news (eg, cures) than bad news (eg, deaths); (2) when reporting bad news, the inclusion of the "population base" was effective in minimizing negative emotions; (3) when reporting good news, excluding the "population base" was more effective than including it in order to maximize positive emotions; (4) a text-plus-graphic frame worked better than a text-only frame in lowering the level of risk perception and negative emotions.

DISCUSSION

This study is relevant to how individuals and organizations communicate information about this viral pandemic and the probable impact of this news on the general public.

New Paradigms for the Old Question: Challenging the Expectation Rule Held by Risky Decision-Making Theories

In risky decision making, whether decision makers follow an expectation rule as hypothesised by mainstream theories is a compelling question. To tackle this question and enrich our knowledge of the underlying mechanism of risky decision making, we developed a series of new experimental paradigms that directly examined the computation processes to systematically investigate the process of risky decision making and explore the boundary condition of expectation rule over the course of a decade. In this article, we introduce these methods and review behavioural, eye-tracking, event-related potential, and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies that employed these methods. Results of these studies consistently showed that decision makers in the single-application condition did not perform the weighting and summing process assumed by the expectation rule. Moreover, decision makers were inclined to adopt a non-compensatory strategy, such as a heuristic one, in risky decision making. Furthermore, results indicated that the expectation rule was only applicable for conditions that involved decisions applied to numerous events (multiple applications) or to people (everyone). The findings indicated that using an index based on expected value to prescribe human risk preferences appears to be an artificial or false index of risk preference, and emphasised a new methodological direction for risky decision-making research.

Worth-based choice: giving an offered smaller pear an even greater fictional value

Choices between options represented in a multidimensional space, in which each dimension signifies a distinct attribute describing the objects, are presumably guided by the principle of value maximization. However, the current study assumes that in a real-world setting, those who are able to imagine things that do not actually exist could modify the multidimensional space by self-generating an unoffered but fictional dimension. We define the utility (Uv) assigned by the decision makers to the options on the offered/given dimension as value (v[x]) and the utility (Uw) on the self-generated/fictional dimension as worth (w[xc]). Our series of experiments demonstrated that an option with a greater value established strictly on that given set of dimensions might not necessarily be chosen (which contradicted the principle of value maximization). Choosing an option with less value (i.e. giving away the bigger pear) behavior can be described and explained by the “worth-based choice” approach, as people behave to select the option with the highest worth rather than that with the highest value. We are optimistic that the resulting findings will facilitate our understanding of the beauty of such a “one step further” choice and assist us in understanding the following: the ability to further generate a fictional dimension and to assign a delayed utility (worth) to the options on the fictional dimension, and to make a worth-based choice, which could eventually be taken as the operational definition to measure the degree of “fiction-generating ability”, as proposed by Harari ( 2014 ).

Eye of the beholder: Risk calculators and barriers to adoption in surgical trainees

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk assessment before surgery is complex and hampered by behavioral factors. Underutilized risk-based decision-support tools may counteract these barriers. The purpose of this study was to identify perceptions of and barriers to the use of surgical risk-assessment tools and assess the importance of data framing as a barrier to adoption in surgical trainees.

METHODS

We distributed a survey and risk assessment activity to surgical trainees at four training institutions. The primary outcomes of this study were descriptive risk assessment practices currently performed by residents, identifiable influences and obstacles to adoption, and the variability of preference sets when comparing modified System Usability Scores of a current risk calculator to a purpose-built calculator revision. Risk calculator comparison responses were compared with simple and multivariable regression to identify predictors for preferentiality.

RESULTS

We collected responses from 124 surgical residents (39% response rate). Participants endorsed familiarity with direct verbal communication (100%), sketch diagrams (87%), and brochures (59%). The most contemporary risk communication frameworks, such as best-worst case scenario framing (38%), case-specific risk calculators (43%), and all-procedure calculators (52%) were the least familiar. Usage favored traditional models of communication with only 26% of residents regularly using a strategy other than direct verbal discussion or anatomic sketch diagrams. Barriers limiting routine use included lack of electronic and clinical workflow integration. The mean modified System Usability Scores domain scores were widely dispersed for all domains, and no domain demonstrated one calculator's superiority over another.

CONCLUSION

Risk assessment tools are underutilized by trainees. Of importance, preference sets of clinicians appear to be unpredictable and may benefit more from a customizable, bespoke approach.

Suffering a Loss Is Good Fortune: Myth or Reality?

We sometimes decide to take an offered option that results in apparent loss (e.g., unpaid overtime). Mainstream decision theory does not predict or explain this as a choice we want to make, whereas such a choice has long been described and highly regarded by the traditional Chinese dogma "" (suffering a loss is good fortune). To explore what makes the dogma work, we developed a celebrity anecdote-based scale to measure "Chikui" (suffering a loss) likelihood and found that:(i) people with higher scores on the Chikui Likelihood Scale (CLS) were more likely to report higher scores on subjective well-being and the Socioeconomic Index for the present and (ii) the current Socioeconomic Index could be positively predicted not only by current CLS scores but also by retrospective CLS scores recalled for the past, and the predictive effect was enhanced with increasing time intervals. Our findings suggest that "suffering a loss is good fortune" is not a myth but a certain reality.

Designing Graphs that Promote Both Risk Understanding and Behavior Change

Graphs show promise for improving communications about different types of risks, including health risks, financial risks, and climate risks. However, graph designs that are effective at meeting one important risk communication goal (promoting risk-avoidant behaviors) can at the same time compromise another key goal (improving risk understanding). We developed and tested simple bar graphs aimed at accomplishing these two goals simultaneously. We manipulated two design features in graphs, namely, whether graphs depicted the number of people affected by a risk and those at risk of harm ("foreground+background") versus only those affected ("foreground-only"), and the presence versus absence of simple numerical labels above bars. Foreground-only displays were associated with larger risk perceptions and risk-avoidant behavior (i.e., willingness to take a drug for heart attack prevention) than foreground+background displays, regardless of the presence of labels. Foreground-only graphs also hindered risk understanding when labels were not present. However, the presence of labels significantly improved understanding, eliminating the detrimental effect of foreground-only displays. Labels also led to more positive user evaluations of the graphs, but did not affect risk-avoidant behavior. Using process modeling we identified mediators (risk perceptions, understanding, user evaluations) that explained the effect of display type on risk-avoidant behavior. Our findings contribute new evidence to the graph design literature: unlike what was previously feared, we demonstrate that it is possible to design foreground-only graphs that promote intentions for behavior change without a detrimental effect on risk understanding. Implications for the design of graphical risk communications and decision support are discussed.

Effect of Graph Scale on Risky Choice: Evidence from Preference and Process in Decision-Making

We investigate the effect of graph scale on risky choices. By (de)compressing the scale, we manipulate the relative physical distance between options on a given attribute in a coordinate graphical context. In Experiment 1, the risky choice changes as a function of the scale in the graph. In Experiment 2, we show that the type of graph scale also affects decision times. In Experiment 3, we examine the graph scale effect by using real money among students who have taken statistics courses. Consequently, the scale effects still appear even when we control the variations in calculation ability and increase the gravity with which participants view the consequence of their decisions. This finding is inconsistent with descriptive invariance of preference. The theoretical implications and practical applications of the findings are discussed.

Foreground-background salience effect in traffic risk communication

Pie charts are often used to communicate risk, such as the risk of driving. In the foreground-background salience effect (FBSE), foreground (probability of bad event) has greater salience than background (no bad event) in such a chart. Experiment 1 confirmed that the displays format of pie charts showed a typical FBSE. Experiment 2 showed that the FBSE resulted from a difference in cognitive efforts in processing the messages and that a foreground-emphasizing display was easier to process. Experiment 3 manipulated subjects’ information processing mindset and explored the interaction between displays format and information processing mindset. In the default mindset, careless subjects displayed a typical FBSE, while those who were instructed to be careful reported similar risk-avoidant behavior preference reading both charts. Suggestions for improving risk communication are discussed.

Is a picture worth a thousand words? The interaction of visual display and attribute representation in attenuating framing bias

The attribute framing bias is a well-established phenomenon, in which an object or an event is evaluated more favorably when presented in a positive frame such as “the half full glass” than when presented in the complementary negative framing. Given that previous research showed that visual aids can attenuate this bias, the current research explores the factors underlying the attenuating effect of visual aids. In a series of three experiments, we examined how attribute framing bias is affected by two factors: (a) The display mode—verbal versus visual; and (b) the representation of the critical attribute—whether one outcome, either the positive or the negative, is represented or both outcomes are represented. In Experiment 1 a marginal attenuation of attribute framing bias was obtained when verbal description of either positive or negative information was accompanied by corresponding visual representation. In Experiment 2 similar marginal attenuation was obtained when both positive and negative outcomes were verbally represented. In Experiment 3, where the verbal description represented both positive and negative outcomes, significant attenuation was obtained when it was accompanied by a visual display that represented a single outcome, and complete attenuation, totally eliminating the framing bias, was obtained when it was accompanied by a visual display that represented both outcomes. Thus, our findings showed that interaction between the display mode and the representation of the critical attribute attenuated the framing bias. Theoretical and practical implications of the interaction between verbal description, visual aids and representation of the critical attribute are discussed, and future research is suggested.

Effect of 45-day simulated microgravity on the evaluation of orally reported emergencies

Accurate evaluation of emergencies is a critical concern in long-duration space flights. Accordingly, we studied the effect of 45 days of - 6° head-down bed rest - a model that simulates the conditions in microgravity environments - on the evaluation of orally reported emergencies. Sixteen male participants listened to corresponding emergency scenarios and assessed the severity of these situations eight times before, during and after bed rest. The results revealed a ' recency effect': compared with emergency descriptions in the order of serious to mild, those framed in the reverse order were judged to be more serious. However, the severity ratings did not vary with time spent in the simulated microgravity environment. These findings are similar to those observed in a regular environment on Earth, indicating that the design principles of information presentation for situations on Earth may also be extended to designs intended for outer space.

PRACTITIONER SUMMARY

A recency effect was found in the evaluation of orally reported emergencies under simulated microgravity conditions. The design principles of information presentation for situations on Earth may also be extended to designs intended for outer space.