A utility approach to individualized optimal dose selection using biomarkers

Exposure-Response-Based Multiattribute Clinical Utility Score Framework to Facilitate Optimal Dose Selection for Oncology Drugs

PURPOSE

The advent of new therapeutic modalities highlighted deficiencies in the traditional maximum tolerated dose approach for oncology drug dose selection and prompted the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)'s Project Optimus initiative, which suggests that sponsors take a holistic approach, including efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic data, in conjunction with integrated exposure-response (ER) analyses. However, this method comes with an inherent challenge of the collation of the multisource data. To address this issue, an ER-based clinical utility score (CUS) framework, combining benefit and risk into a single measurement, was developed.

METHODS

Model-predicted outcomes for each clinically relevant end point, informed by ER modeling, are converted to a CUS using a user-defined utility function. Thereafter, individual CUS is integrated into a single score with user-defined weighting for each end point. The user-defined weighting feature allows the user to incorporate expert knowledge/understanding into weighing the product's benefit versus risk profile.

RESULTS

To validate the framework, data were leveraged from over 50 oncology programs from 2019 to 2023 on the basis of FDA new drug application/biologics license application review packages and/or related literature studies. Five representative cases were selected for in-depth evaluation. Results showed that the optimal benefit-risk ratio (highest CUS) was consistently observed at PK exposures synonymous with recommended doses. A recurring theme across cases was a greater emphasis on safety over efficacy in oncology drug dose determination.

CONCLUSION

The ER-based CUS framework offers a strategic tool to navigate the complexities of dose selection in oncology programs. It serves as a pillar to the importance of integrative data analysis, aligning with the vision of Project Optimus, and demonstrates its potential in guiding dose optimization by balancing therapeutic benefits against risk.

Direct incorporation of patient-specific efficacy and toxicity estimates in radiation therapy plan optimization

PURPOSE

Current radiation therapy (RT) treatment planning relies mainly on pre-defined dose-based objectives and constraints to develop plans that aim to control disease while limiting damage to normal tissues during treatment. These objectives and constraints are generally population-based, in that they are developed from the aggregate response of a broad patient population to radiation. However, correlations of new biologic markers and patient-specific factors to treatment efficacy and toxicity provide the opportunity to further stratify patient populations and develop a more individualized approach to RT planning. We introduce a novel intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization strategy that directly incorporates patient-specific dose response models into the planning process. In this strategy, we integrate the concept of utility-based planning where the optimization objective is to maximize the predicted value of overall treatment utility, defined by the probability of efficacy (e.g., local control) minus the weighted sum of toxicity probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply the strategy to treatment planning for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We developed a prioritized approach to patient-specific IMRT planning. Using a commercial treatment planning system (TPS), we calculate dose based on an influence matrix of beamlet-dose contributions to regions-of-interest. Then, outside of the TPS, we hierarchically solve two optimization problems to generate optimal beamlet weights that can then be imported back to the TPS. The first optimization problem maximizes a patient's overall plan utility subject to typical clinical dose constraints. In this process, we facilitate direct optimization of efficacy and toxicity trade-off based on individualized dose-response models. After optimal utility is determined, we solve a secondary optimization problem that minimizes a conventional dose-based objective subject to the same clinical dose constraints as the first stage but with the addition of a constraint to maintain the optimal utility from the first optimization solution. We tested this method by retrospectively generating plans for five previously treated NSCLC patients and comparing the prioritized utility plans to conventional plans optimized with only dose metric objectives. To define a plan utility function for each patient, we utilized previously published correlations of dose to local control and grade 3-5 toxicities that include patient age, stage, microRNA levels, and cytokine levels, among other clinical factors.

RESULTS

The proposed optimization approach successfully generated RT plans for five NSCLC patients that improve overall plan utility based on personalized efficacy and toxicity models while accounting for clinical dose constraints. Prioritized utility plans demonstrated the largest average improvement in local control (16.6%) when compared to plans generated with conventional planning objectives. However, for some patients, the utility-based plans resulted in similar local control estimates with decreased estimated toxicity.

CONCLUSION

The proposed optimization approach, where the maximization of a patient's RT plan utility is prioritized over the minimization of standardized dose metrics, has the potential to improve treatment outcomes by directly accounting for variability within a patient population. The implementation of the utility-based objective function offers an intuitive, humanized approach to biological optimization in which planning trade-offs are explicitly optimized.

Utility based approach in individualized optimal dose selection using machine learning methods

The goal in personalized medicine is to individualize treatment using patient characteristics and improve health outcomes. Selection of optimal dose must balance the effect of dose on both treatment efficacy and toxicity outcomes. We consider a setting with one binary efficacy and one binary toxicity outcome. The goal is to find the optimal dose for each patient using clinical features and biomarkers from available dataset. We propose to use flexible machine learning methods such as random forest and Gaussian process models to build models for efficacy and toxicity depending on dose and biomarkers. A copula is used to model the joint distribution of the two outcomes and the estimates are constrained to have non‐decreasing dose‐efficacy and dose‐toxicity relationships. Numerical utilities are elicited from clinicians for each potential bivariate outcome. For each patient, the optimal dose is chosen to maximize the posterior mean of the utility function. We also propose alternative approaches to optimal dose selection by adding additional toxicity based constraints and an approach taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of the utility function. The proposed methods are evaluated in a simulation study to compare expected utility outcomes under various estimated optimal dose rules. Gaussian process models tended to have better performance than random forest. Enforcing monotonicity during modeling provided small benefits. Whether and how, correlation between efficacy and toxicity, was modeled, had little effect on performance. The proposed methods are illustrated with a study of patients with liver cancer treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy.

Bayesian adaptive design of early-phase clinical trials for precision medicine based on cancer biomarkers

Cancer tissue samples obtained via biopsy or surgery were examined for specific gene mutations by genetic testing to inform treatment. Precision medicine, which considers not only the cancer type and location, but also the genetic information, environment, and lifestyle of each patient, can be applied for disease prevention and treatment in individual patients. The number of patient-specific characteristics, including biomarkers, has been increasing with time; these characteristics are highly correlated with outcomes. The number of patients at the beginning of early-phase clinical trials is often limited. Moreover, it is challenging to estimate parameters of models that include baseline characteristics as covariates such as biomarkers. To overcome these issues and promote personalized medicine, we propose a dose-finding method that considers patient background characteristics, including biomarkers, using a model for phase I/II oncology trials. We built a Bayesian neural network with input variables of dose, biomarkers, and interactions between dose and biomarkers and output variables of efficacy outcomes for each patient. We trained the neural network to select the optimal dose based on all background characteristics of a patient. Simulation analysis showed that the probability of selecting the desirable dose was higher using the proposed method than that using the naïve method.