Assessment of Tumor Burden Score as a Feasible and Reliable Tool for Prognosis Prediction for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Hepatectomy: A Multicenter, Retrospective Study

Background

Maximum diameter and number are the main parameters of tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Tumor burden score (TBS) shows its distinguished ability to stratify patients with HCC undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, the prognostic accuracy of TBS in HCC undergoing liver resection and its association with the BCLC stage has not been well evaluated.

Methods

A total of 3044 treatment-naïve HCC patients from six independent medical centers undergoing liver resection were retrospectively analyzed. Survival analyses were conducted by plotting Kaplan-Meier curves and the Log rank test. We further investigated whether the tumor burden score was a feasible subclassification criterion across the BCLC stage. Then, we also used TBS to identify HCC patients beyond BCLC criteria who could benefit most from surgical resection. Finally, univariate and multivariate cox analysis was used to determine independent prognostic predictors.

Results

About 44.2% (n=1343) of patients had low TBS, 38.8% (n=1182) had intermediate TBS and 17% (n=519) had high TBS. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival deteriorated incrementally with increasing TBS (P<0.0001). Subgroup analysis indicated that there was a significant survival difference among the three TBS groups across the BCLC stage (P<0.0001). Low TBS group of patients beyond BCLC criteria reported acceptable outcomes compared to intermediate TBS group patients within BCLC criteria, even better than high TBS group (5-year OS: 64.3%, 69.8%, and 56.3%). Finally, low TBS was identified as an independent protective prognostic factor.

Conclusion

Tumor burden score is a feasible and reliable prognostic tool for prognosis prediction and clinical decisions.

The role of resection in hepatocellular carcinoma BCLC stage B: A multi-institutional patient-level meta-analysis and systematic review

PURPOSE

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging schema is widely used for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. In the updated recommendations, HCC BCLC stage B can become candidates for transplantation. In contrast, hepatectomy is currently not recommended.

METHODS

This systematic review includes a multi-institutional meta-analysis of patient-level data. Survival, postoperative mortality, morbidity and patient selection criteria for liver resection and transplantation in BCLC stage B are explored. All clinical studies reporting HCC patients with BCLC stage B undergoing liver resection or transplantation were included.

RESULTS

A total of 31 studies with 3163 patients were included. Patient level data was available for 580 patients from 9 studies (423 after resection and 157 after transplantation). The overall survival following resection was 50 months and recurrence-free survival was 15 months. Overall survival after transplantation was not reached and recurrence-free survival was 45 months. The major complication rate after resection was 0.11 (95%-CI, 0.0-0.17) with the 90-day mortality rate of 0.03 (95%-CI, 0.03-0.08). Child-Pugh A (93%), minor resection (60%), alpha protein level less than 400 (64%) were common in resected patients. Resected patients were mostly outside the Milan criteria (99%) with mean tumour number of 2.9. Studies reporting liver transplantation in BCLC stage B were scarce.

CONCLUSION

Liver resection can be performed safely in selected patients with HCC BCLC stage B, particularly if patients present with preserved liver function. No conclusion can done on liver transplantation due to scarcity of reported studies.

A simple model to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

PURPOSE

Multiple studies have reported models for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection (LR). However, these models are too complex to use in daily practice. We aimed to develop a simple model.

METHOD

We enrolled 1133 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing LR. The Kaplan - Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis to identify prognostic factors associated with early recurrence (i.e., recurrence within two years after LR).

RESULTS

Early recurrence was identified in 403 (35.1%) patients. In multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) 20-399 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.282 [95% confidence interval = 1.002-1.639]; p = 0.048); AFP ≥ 400 vs. < 20 ng/ml (HR = 1.755 [1.382-2.229]; p < 0.001); 7th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage 2 vs. 1 (HR = 1.958 [1.505-2.547]; p < 0.001); AJCC stage 3 vs. 1 (HR = 4.099 [3.043-5.520]; p < 0.001); and pathology-defined cirrhosis (HR = 1.46 [1.200-1.775]; p < 0.001) were associated with early recurrence. We constructed a predictive model with these variables, which provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk, with two-year RFS of 79%, 57%, and 35%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple model to predict early recurrence risk for patients undergoing LR for HCC.

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients.

METHODS

We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared.

RESULTS

A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Proposal for Prognosis-Oriented Definition of Borderline Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Owing to advances in the multidisciplinary treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a conceptualization and definition for borderline resectable (BR) HCC, which carries a high risk of recurrence, is warranted. In this study, we aimed to define BR-HCC using a prognosis-oriented approach.

STUDY DESIGN

The study included an original cohort of 221 patients and an independent validation cohort of 181 patients who had undergone primary hepatic resection for HCC. To define biological BR-HCC, we evaluated the risk factors for early recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year after hepatic resection using multivariable logistic regression models. Subsequently, we developed high-risk scores using the identified risk factors and defined BR-HCC. The utility of high-risk score was validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the original cohort (hepatitis B virus:hepatitis C virus = 20%:29%), recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year was observed in 28 patients (13%), with a 5-year survival rate of 25%. Multivariable analysis identified risk factors for recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 1 year, including serum alpha-fetoprotein levels of 12 ng/mL or more (p = 0.02), tumor diameters less than 5 cm (p = 0.02), tumor number 3 or more (p = 0.001), and macrovascular invasion (p = 0.04). BR-HCC was defined as a tumor with 2 or more identified risk factors, and 42 patients (19%) were diagnosed with BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 51%. In the validation cohort, 45 (25%) patients had BR-HCC, with a 5-year survival rate of 42%.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis-oriented definition of BR-HCC enabled us to identify patients who are susceptible to early unresectable recurrence and have poor survival after hepatic resection for HCC. For patients with BR-HCC, preoperative systemic therapy may be a viable option to improve postresection outcomes.

Prognostic benefit of preoperative transarterial chemoembolization in upfront resectable large hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentric propensity score based analysis of European high-volume centers

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have a dismal prognosis and any effective neoadjuvant treatment has been validated to date. We aimed to investigate the role of neoadjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in upfront resectable HCC larger than 5 cm.

METHODS

This is a multicentric retrospective study comparing outcomes of large HCC undergoing TACE followed by surgery or liver resection alone before and after propensity-score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

A total of 384 patients were included of whom 60 (15.6%) received TACE. This group did not differ from upfront resected cases neither in terms of disease-free survival (p = 0.246) nor in overall survival (p = 0.276). After PSM, TACE still did not influence long-term outcomes (p = 0.935 and p = 0.172, for DFS and OS respectively). In subgroup analysis, TACE improved OS only in HCC ≥10 cm (p = 0.045), with a borderline significance after portal vein embolization/ligation (p = 0.087) and in single HCC (p = 0.052).

CONCLUSIONS

TACE should not be systematically performed in all resectable large HCC. Selected cases could however potentially benefit from this procedure, as patients with huge and single tumors or those necessitating of a PVE.

Prognostic Indicators of Overall Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Undergoing Liver Resection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer and the third contributor to malignancy-related deaths worldwide. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), transient elastography-liver stiffness measurement (TE-LSM), and the association between TBS (tumor burden score), alpha-fetoprotein levels, and the Child-Pugh classification (TAC score) can serve as valuable prognostic indicators for these patients. Therefore, the main objective of our research was to analyze the prognostic value of the HVPG, TE-LSM, TBS, and TAC scores. An observational and survival study was conducted on 144 subjects. Our findings indicated that HVPG greater than 10 mmHg, AFP surpassing 400 ng/mL, an advanced C-P class, and low TAC score are independent predictors of overall survival. During the multivariate analysis, AFP serum levels and C-P class proved statistically significant. The present study revealed significant differences in overall survival between the two groups divided upon HVPG values and settled by the cutoff of 10 mmHg (p = 0.02). Moreover, by dividing the cohort into three groups based on the TAC score (very low, low, and moderate), statistically significant differences in overall survival were observed across the groups (p = 0.004).

QSAR analysis of VEGFR-2 inhibitors based on machine learning, Topomer CoMFA and molecule docking

VEGFR-2 kinase inhibitors are clinically approved drugs that can effectively target cancer angiogenesis. However, such inhibitors have adverse effects such as skin toxicity, gastrointestinal reactions and hepatic impairment. In this study, machine learning and Topomer CoMFA, which is an alignment-dependent, descriptor-based method, were employed to build structural activity relationship models of potentially new VEGFR-2 inhibitors. The prediction ac-curacy of the training and test sets of the 2D-SAR model were 82.4 and 80.1%, respectively, with KNN. Topomer CoMFA approach was then used for 3D-QSAR modeling of VEGFR-2 inhibitors. The coefficient of q2 for cross-validation of the model 1 was greater than 0.5, suggesting that a stable drug activity-prediction model was obtained. Molecular docking was further performed to simulate the interactions between the five most promising compounds and VEGFR-2 target protein and the Total Scores were all greater than 6, indicating that they had a strong hydrogen bond interactions were present. This study successfully used machine learning to obtain five potentially novel VEGFR-2 inhibitors to increase our arsenal of drugs to combat cancer.

Adjuvant immunotherapy improves recurrence-free and overall survival following surgical resection for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma a multicenter propensity matching analysis

Background & aims

The effectiveness of adjuvant immunotherapy to diminish recurrence and improve long-term prognosis following curative-intent surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is of increased interest, especially among individuals at high risk of recurrence. The objective of the current study was to investigate the impact of adjuvant immunotherapy on long-term recurrence and survival after curative resection among patients with intermediate/advanced HCC.

Methods

Using a prospectively-collected multicenter database, patients who underwent curative-intent resection for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B/C HCC were identified. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was used to compare recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) between patients treated with and without adjuvant immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Multivariate Cox-regression analysis further identified independent factors of RFS and OS.

Results

Among the 627 enrolled patients, 109 patients (23.3%) received adjuvant immunotherapy. Most ICI-related adverse reactions were grading I-II. PSM analysis created 99 matched pairs of patients with comparable baseline characteristics between patients treated with and without adjuvant immunotherapy. In the PSM cohort, the median RFS (29.6 vs. 19.3 months, P=0.031) and OS (35.1 vs. 27.8 months, P=0.036) were better among patients who received adjuvant immunotherapy versus patients who did not. After adjustment for other confounding factors on multivariable analyzes, adjuvant immunotherapy remained independently associated with favorable RFS (HR: 0.630; 95% CI: 0.435-0.914; P=0.015) and OS (HR: 0.601; 95% CI: 0.401-0.898; P=0.013). Subgroup analyzes identified potentially prognostic benefits of adjuvant immunotherapy among patients with intermediate-stage and advanced-stage HCC.

Conclusion

This real-world observational study demonstrated that adjuvant immunotherapy was associated with improved RFS and OS following curative-intent resection of intermediate/advanced HCC. Future randomized controlled trials are warranted to establish definitive evidence for this specific population at high risks of recurrence.

Impact of guideline adherence on the prognosis of Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are considerably heterogeneous in terms of tumor burden, liver function, and performance status. To improve the poor survival outcomes of these patients, treatment approaches other than transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is recommended by HCC guidelines, have been adopted in real-world clinical practice. We hypothesize that this non-adherence to treatment guidelines, particularly with respect to the use of liver resection, improves survival in patients with stage B HCC.

AIM

To assess guideline adherence in South Korean patients with stage B HCC and study its impact on survival.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 2008 to 2016 obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. Patients with stage B HCC were categorized into three treatment groups, guideline-adherent, upward, and downward, based on HCC guidelines recommended by the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD). The primary outcome was HCC-related deaths; tumor recurrence served as the secondary outcome. Survival among the groups was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Predictors of survival outcomes were identified using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

In South Korea, over the study period from 2008 to 2016, a notable trend was observed in adherence to HCC guidelines. Adherence to the EASL guidelines started relatively high, ranging from 77% to 80% between 2008 and 2012, but it gradually declined to 58.8% to 71.6% from 2013 to 2016. Adherence to the AASLD guidelines began at 71.7% to 75.9% from 2008 to 2010, and then it fluctuated between 49.2% and 73.8% from 2011 to 2016. In contrast, adherence to the APASL guidelines remained consistently high, staying within the range of 90.14% to 94.5% throughout the entire study period. Upward treatment, for example with liver resection, liver transplantation, or radiofrequency ablation, significantly improved the survival of patients with BCLC stage B HCC compared to that of patients treated in adherence to the guidelines (for patients analyzed according to the 2000 EASL guidelines, the 5-year survival rates were 63.4% vs 27.2%, P < 0.001), although results varied depending on the guidelines. Progression-free survival rates were also significantly improved upon the use of upward treatments in certain groups. Patients receiving upward treatments were typically < 70 years old, had platelet counts > 105/μL, and serum albumin levels ≥ 3.5 g/dL.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to guidelines significantly influences survival in South Korean stage B HCC patients. Curative treatments outperform TACE, but liver resection should be selected with caution due to disease heterogeneity.

Beta2-Microglobulin as Predictive Biomarkers in the Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Development of a New Nomogram

Background

Accurate prognosis is crucial for improving hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, clinical management, and outcomes post-liver resection. However, the lack of reliable prognostic indicators poses a significant challenge. This study aimed to develop a user-friendly nomogram to predict HCC patients' post-resection prognosis.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the data from 1091 HCC patients, randomly split into training (n=767) and validation (n=324) cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined the optimal cut-off value for alpha1-microglobulin (α1MG) and Beta2-microglobulin (β2MG). Kaplan-Meier analysis assessed microglobulin's impact on survival, followed by Cox regression to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were measured by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA), and were compared with the BCLC staging system, Edmondson grade, or BCLC stage plus Edmondson grade.

Results

Patients with high β2MG (≥2.395mg/L) had worse overall survival (OS). The nomogram integrated β2MG, BCLC stage, Edmondson grade, microvascular invasion (MVI), and serum carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199) levels. C-index for training and validation cohorts (0.712 and 0.709) outperformed the BCLC stage (0.660 and 0.657), Edmondson grade (0.579 and 0.564), and the combination of BCLC stage with Edmondson grade (0.681 and 0.668), improving prognosis prediction. Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed survival. AUC values exceeded 0.700 over time, highlighting the nomogram's discriminative ability. DCA revealed superior overall net income compared to other systems, emphasizing its clinical utility.

Conclusion

Our β2MG-based nomogram accurately predicts HCC patients' post-resection prognosis, aiding intervention and follow-up planning. Significantly, our nomogram surpasses existing prognostic indicators, including BCLC stage, Edmondson grade, and the combination of BCLC stage with Edmondson grade, by demonstrating superior predictive performance.

Surgical resection for large hepatocellular carcinoma and those beyond BCLC: systematic review with proposed management algorithm

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the sixth most common cancer and ranks third in mortality worldwide with inhomogeneity in terms of resection for advanced-stage disease.

METHODS

A systematic review of published literature using the PubMed, Medline, and Google Scholar databases from 1995 to 2020 was conducted to identify studies that reported outcomes of resection for solitary HCC > 10 cm, BCLC B/C, and multinodular HCC. Our aim was to assess overall survival for resection, identify poor prognostic factors, and to compare it to trans-arterial chemotherapy (TACE) where data was available.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine articles were included after a complete database search in the systematic review as per our predefined criteria. Analysis revealed a 5-year overall survival of 33.5% for resection of HCC > 10 cm, 41.7% for BCLC B, 23.3% for BCLC C, and 36.6% for multinodular HCC. Peri-operative mortality ranged from 0 to 6.9%. Studies comparing resection versus TACE for BCLC B/C had a survival of 40% versus 17%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our systematic review justifies hepatic resection wherever feasible for hepatocellular carcinomas > 10 cm, BCLC B, BCLC C, and multinodular tumors. In addition, we identified and proposed an algorithm with five poor prognostic criteria in this group of patients who may benefit from adjuvant TACE.

Clinical consensus statement: Establishing the roles of locoregional and systemic therapies for the treatment of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in Canada

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide and approximately one-third of patients present with intermediate-stage disease. The treatment landscape of intermediate-stage HCC is rapidly evolving due to developments in local, locoregional and systemic therapies. Treatment recommendations focused on this heterogenous disease stage and that take into account the Canadian reality are lacking. To address this gap, a pan-Canadian group of experts in hepatology, transplant, surgery, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine, interventional radiology, and medical oncology came together to develop consensus recommendations on management of intermediate-stage HCC relevant to the Canadian context.

METHODS

A modified Delphi framework was used to develop consensus statements with strengths of recommendation and supporting levels of evidence graded using the AHA/ACC classification system. Tentative consensus statements were drafted based on a systematic search and expert input in a series of iterative feedback cycles and were then circulated via online survey to assess the level of agreement.

RESULTS & CONCLUSION

The pre-defined ratification threshold of 80 % agreement was reached for all statements in the areas of multidisciplinary treatment (n = 4), intra-arterial therapy (n = 14), biologics (n = 5), radiation therapy (n = 3), surgical resection and transplantation (n = 7), and percutaneous ablative therapy (n = 4). These generally reflected an expansion in treatment options due to developments in previously established or emergent techniques, introduction of new and more active therapies and increased therapeutic flexibility. These developments have allowed for greater treatment tailoring and personalization as well as a paradigm shift toward strategies with curative intent in a wider range of disease settings.

Clinical prognosis of surgical resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for single large hepatocellular carcinoma (≥5 cm): A propensity score matching analysis

Favorable prognostic factors and therapeutic strategies are important for patients with single large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors in patients with single large (≥5 cm) HCC with Child-Pugh (CP) class A patients and to recommend therapeutic strategies. Overall, 298 HCC patients with single and large (≥5 cm) tumors with CP class A, but without distant metastasis and macrovascular invasion were included, and their clinicopathological data, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were recorded. OS and PFS was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed. The 298 HCC patients were 79.2% male and median age of 64 years. For the initial treatment, surgical resection (SR) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) was 50.8% and 49.2%, respectively. The OS and PFS were significantly higher in patients receiving SR than those receiving TACE before and after PSM. Furthermore, in multivariate analysis, cirrhosis (Hazard ratio [HR]: 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35-3.03, p < 0.001, CP class A5/6 [HR: 4.01; 95% CI: 2.43-6.66, p < 0.001], and initial treatment [SR vs. TACE HR = 3.23; 95% CI: 2.13-5.01, p < 0.001]) remained significantly associated with mortality. Moreover, in multivariate analysis, CP class A5/6 (HR: 3.23; 95% CI: 1.89-5.88, p < 0.001), and initial treatment (Resection vs. TACE; HR = 4.17; 95% CI: 1.64-8.33, p = 0.039) remained significantly associated with recurrence. In conclusion, SR was associated with significantly higher OS and PFS rates than TACE before and after PSM for single large HCC patients.

Postoperative outcomes and recurrence patterns of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma dictated by the sum of tumor size and number

BACKGROUND

The selection criteria for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who would truly benefit from liver resection (LR) remain undefined.

AIM

To identify BCLC-B HCC patients more suitable for LR.

METHODS

We included patients undergoing curative LR for BCLC stage A or B multi-nodular HCC (MNHCC) and stratified BCLC-B patients by the sum of tumor size and number (N + S). Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), recur-rence-to-death survival (RTDS), recurrence patterns, and treatments after recurrence in BCLC-B patients in each subgroup were compared with those in BCLC-A patients.

RESULTS

In total, 143 patients who underwent curative LR for MNHCC with BCLC-A (n = 25) or BCLC-B (n = 118) were retrospectively analyzed. According to the N + S, patients with BCLC-B HCC were divided into two subgroups: BCLC-B1 (N + S ≤ 10, n = 83) and BCLC-B2 (N + S > 10, n = 35). Compared with BCLC-B2 patients, those with BCLC-B1 had a better OS (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 33.6%; P < 0.001), which was comparable to that in BCLC-A patients (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 74.1%; P = 0.250), and a better RFS (median RFS: 19 mo vs 7 mo; P < 0.001), which was worse than that in BCLC-A patients (median RFS: 19 mo vs 48 mo; P = 0.022). Further analysis of patients who developed recurrence showed that both BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients had better RTDS (median RTDS: Not reached vs 49 mo; P = 0.599), while the RTDS in BCLC-B2 patients was worse (median RTDS: 16 mo vs not reached, P < 0.001; 16 mo vs 49 mo, P = 0.042). The recurrence patterns were similar between BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients, but BCLC-B2 patients had a shorter recurrence time and a higher proportion of patients had recurrence with macrovascular invasion and/or extrahepatic metastasis, both of which were independent risk factors for RTDS.

CONCLUSION

BCLC-B HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy with N + S ≤ 10 had mild recurrence patterns and excellent OS similar to those in BCLC-A MNHCC patients, and LR should be considered in these patients.

Short-term prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with lung metastasis: A retrospective cohort study based on the SEER database

Our study aimed to develop a prediction model to predict the short-term mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with lung metastasis. The retrospective data of HCC patients with lung metastasis was from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registration database between 2010 and 2015. 1905 patients were randomly divided into training set (n = 1333) and validation set (n = 572). There were 1092 patients extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database 2015 to 2019 as the validation set. The variable importance was calculated to screen predictors. The constructed prediction models of logistic regression, random forest, broad learning system, deep neural network, support vector machine, and naïve Bayes were compared through the predictive performance. The mortality of HCC patients with lung metastasis was 51.65% within 1 month. The screened prognostic factors (age, N stage, T stage, tumor size, surgery, grade, radiation, and chemotherapy) and gender were used to construct prediction models. The area under curve (0.853 vs. 0.771) of random forest model was more optimized than that of logistic regression model in the training set. But, there were no significant differences in testing and validation sets between random forest and logistic regression models. The value of area under curve in the logistic regression model was significantly higher than that of the broad learning system model (0.763 vs. 0.745), support vector machine model (0.763 vs. 0.689) in the validation set, and higher than that of the naïve Bayes model (0.775 vs. 0.744) in the testing model. We further chose the logistic regression prediction model and built the prognostic nomogram. We have developed a prediction model for predicting short-term mortality with 9 easily acquired predictors of HCC patients with lung metastasis, which performed well in the internal and external validation. It could assist clinicians to adjust treatment strategies in time to improve the prognosis.

Clinical features and prognostic factors in patients with microvascular infiltration of hepatocellular carcinoma: Development and validation of a nomogram and risk stratification based on the SEER database

Background

The goal is to establish and validate an innovative prognostic risk stratification and nomogram in patients of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with microvascular invasion (MVI) for predicting the cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

1487 qualified patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. Concordance index (C-index), area under curve (AUC) and calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to quantify the net benefit of the nomogram at different threshold probabilities and compare it to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor staging system. C-index, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to evaluate the improvement of the new model over the AJCC tumor staging system. The new risk stratifications based on the nomogram and the AJCC tumor staging system were compared.

Results

Eight prognostic factors were used to construct the nomogram for HCC patients with MVI. The C-index for the training and validation cohorts was 0.785 and 0.776 respectively. The AUC values were higher than 0.7 both in the training cohort and validation cohort. The calibration plots showed good consistency between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. The IDI values of 1-, 3-, 5-year CSS in the training cohort were 0.17, 0.16, 0.15, and in the validation cohort were 0.17, 0.17, 0.17 (P<0.05). The NRI values of the training cohort were 0.75 at 1-year, 0.68 at 3-year and 0.67 at 5-year. The DCA curves indicated that the new model more accurately predicted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS in both training and validation cohort, because it added more net benefit than the AJCC staging system. Furthermore, the risk stratification system showed the CSS in different groups had a good regional division.

Conclusions

A comprehensive risk stratification system and nomogram were established to forecast CSS for patients of HCC with MVI.

Extending Surgical Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Beyond Barcelona Clinic for Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage A: A Novel Application of the Modified BCLC Staging System

Objective

We aimed to prognosticate survival after surgical resection of HCC stratified by stage with amalgamation of the modified Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system and location of tumour.

Methods

This single-institutional retrospective cohort study included patients with HCC who underwent surgical resection between 1st January 2000 to 30th June 2016. Participants were divided into 6 different subgroups: A-u) Within MC with Unilobar lesions; A-b) Within MC + Bilobar lesions; B1-u) Out of MC + within Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B1-b) Out of MC + within Up-to-7 + Bilobar lesions; B2-u) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B2-b) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Bilobar lesions. A separate survival analysis was conducted for solitary HCC lesions according to three subgroups: A-S (Within MC); B1-S (Out of MC + within Up-To-7); B2-S (Out of MC + out of Up-To-7).

Results

A total of 794 of 1043 patients with surgical resection for HCC were analysed. Groups A-u (64.6%), A-b (58.4%) and B1-u (56.2%) had 5-year cumulative overall survival (OS) rates above 50% after surgical resection and median OS exceeding 60 months (P = 0.0001). The 5-year cumulative recurrence-free survival rates (RFS) were 40.4% (group A-u), 38.2% (group A-b), 36.3% (group B1-u), 24.6% (group B2-u), and 7.3% (group B2-b)(P=0.0001). For solitary lesions, the 5-year OS for the subgroups were A-S (65.1%), B1-S (56.0%) and B2-S (47.1%) (P = 0.0003). Compared to A-S, there was also a significant trend towards relatively poorer OS as the lesion sizes increased in B1-S (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03–2.08) and B2-S (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.25–2.18).

Conclusion

We adopted a novel approach combining the modified BCLC B sub-classification and dispersion of tumour to show that surgical resection in intermediate stage HCC can be robustly prognosticated. We found that size prognosticates resection outcomes in solitary tumours.

Treatment and the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asia

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common type of malignant tumour in Asia. Treatment is decided according to the staging system with information on tumour burden and liver function. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system is the most commonly used staging system for the selection of appropriate treatments worldwide, and although it is highly evidenced-base, it has very strict guidelines for treatment. In Asian countries, many efforts have been made to expand the indications of each treatment and combination therapies as well as alternative therapies for better outcomes. The guidelines in Asia are less evidence-based than those in Western countries. More aggressive treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma are generally employed in the guidelines of Asian countries. Surgical resection is frequently employed for selected hepatocellular carcinoma patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages B and C, and combination therapies are sometimes selected, which are contrary to the recommendations of American and European association for the study of the liver guidelines. Recently, a paradigm shift in treatments for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has occurred with molecular targeted agents, antibodies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in Asia. Atezolizumab+bevacizumab therapy has become the first-line systemic treatment ineligible for radical treatment or transarterial chemoembolization in Asian countries. The overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma varies substantially across Asia. Taiwan and Japan have the best clinical outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Intensive surveillance programmes and the development of radical and non-radical treatments are indispensable for the improvement of prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Using Period Analysis to Timely Assess and Predict 5-Year Relative Survival for Liver Cancer Patients From Taizhou, Eastern China

Introduction

While timely assessment of long-term survival for patients with liver cancer is essential for the evaluation of early detection and screening programs of liver cancer, those data are extremely scarce in China. We aimed to timely and accurately assess long-term survival for liver cancer patients in eastern China.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with liver cancer during 2004–2018 from four cancer registries with high-quality data from Taizhou, eastern China, were included. The period analysis was used to calculate the 5-year relative survival (RS) for overall and the stratification by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. The projected 5-year RS of liver cancer patients during 2019–2023 was also assessed using a model-based period analysis.

Results

The overall 5-year RS for patients with liver cancer during 2014–2018 reached 32.4%, being 29.3% for men and 36.1% for women. The 5-year RS declined along with aging, decreasing from 38.2% for age <45 years to 18.8% for age >74 years, while the 5-year RS for urban area was higher compared to rural area (36.8% vs. 29.3%). The projected overall 5-year RS of liver cancer patients could reach 41.4% during the upcoming period 2019–2023.

Conclusions

We provided, for first time in China using the period analysis, the most up-to-date 5-year RS for patients with liver cancer from Taizhou, eastern China, and also found that the 5-year RS for liver cancer patients have improved greatly during 2004–2018, which has important implications for the timely evaluation of early detection and screening programs for patients with liver cancer in eastern China.

Laparoscopic versus open liver resection for resectable HCC with BCLC stage B: a propensity score-matched analysis

To date, there is little knowledge about the value of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B. Thus, this study was performed to assess the perioperative and oncological outcomes of LLR for these patients by comparison with open liver resection (OLR). Between April 2015 and October 2018, a total of 217 resectable HCC patients with BCLC stage B were eligible for this study. Patients were divided into the LLR group and the OLR group according to different procedures. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to adjust for known confounders. Short- and long-term outcomes were compared between the two groups. LLR was performed in 75 of the 217 included patients. After PSM, 72 patients with well-balanced baseline levels were enrolled into each group. Although the operative time was significantly longer in the LLR group than in the OLR group (median, 237.5 vs. 210 min, P = 0.024), the intraoperative blood loss was significantly less in the LLR group than in the OLR group (median, 200 vs. 350 ml, P = 0.005). Patients in the LLR group had fewer complications than those in the OLR group (P = 0.035). Furthermore, overall survival (OS, P = 0.827) and recurrence-free survival (RFS, P = 0.694) were comparable between the two groups. LLR for resectable HCC patients with BCLC stage B is safe and feasible in carefully selected patients and has superior perioperative outcomes and similar survival rates compared with OLR.

Oncological Outcomes of Operative Microwave Ablation for Intermediate Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Experience in 246 Consecutive Patients

BACKGROUND

Few clinical studies concerning the efficacy of microwave ablation for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma have been published. Our purpose was to examine perioperative and long-term outcomes after operative microwave ablation for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 246 patients who had undergone operative microwave ablation for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma in our institute between January 2001 and December 2017. We analyzed overall and recurrence-free survival and used the Cox proportional hazard model to evaluate potential prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The overall median follow-up time was 51 months. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival rates were 98%, 74%, 51%, and 28%, respectively, whereas the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year recurrence-free survival rates were 80%, 32%, 18%, and 10%, respectively. The major complication rate (Clavien-Dindo classification IIIa or above) after operative microwave ablation was 7%, with no procedure-related mortality. Multivariate analysis identified beyond up-to-7 criteria (the sum of the largest tumor's diameter in cm and the total number of tumors), Child-Pugh grade B, and serum alpha-fetoprotein concentration ≥ 100 ng/mL as independent risk factors for overall survival after operative microwave ablation. The overall survival of patients within up-to-7 and Child-Pugh grade A was better than that of the remaining patients, 5-year overall survivals being 67% and 37%, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Operative microwave ablation is safe and effective in patients with intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma. In particular, patients within up-to-7 and Child-Pugh grade A can be expected to have better long-term outcomes after operative microwave ablation.

Partial hepatectomy vs. transcatheter arterial chemoembolization for multiple hepatocellular carcinomas of BCLC-B stage: A meta-analysis of high-quality studies

BACKGROUND/AIM

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) recommends that transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) are indicated in patients with multiple hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) of BCLC-B stage. However, partial hepatectomy (PH) has increasely performed in these patients. The purpose of this meta-analyses is to illustrate the comparative survival benefits of PH and TACE for patients with multiple HCCs of BCLC-B stage.

METHOD

Electronic databases were systematically searched for eligible studies that compared PH and TACE performed in patients with multiple HCCs of BCLC-B stage. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were reviewed systematically. The reported data were aggregated statistically using the RevMan5.3 software. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoint were the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates, postoperative 30-day mortality and postoperative complications.

RESULTS

A total of seven high-quality studies (one randomized controlled trial [RCT], six propensity-score matching (PSM) nonrandomized comparative trials [non-RCTs] that met the inclusion criteria, which comprised of 2487 patients (1245 PH and 1242 TACE) in the meta-analysis. When compared with the TACE group, the PH group had a significantly higher OS (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.48-1.84; P = 0.26; I² = 22%) and 1-, 3-, 5-year survival rates (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.59-2.41; P = 0.0005; I² = 75%; P < 0.00001; OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.94-4.42; P = 0.0001; I² = 78%; P < 0.00001; OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.17-3.11; P = 0.13; I² = 44%; P < 0.00001; respectively). Survival benefits persisted across sensitivity and subgroup analyses; High heterogeneity remained after sensitivity and subgroup analyses for 3-year survival rates.

CONCLUSION

PH can provide more survival benefit for patients with multiple HCCs of BCLC-B stage compared with TACE.

Nontumor related risk score: A new tool to improve prediction of prognosis after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis based solely on tumor-related factors has only moderate discriminatory ability. We hypothesized that the inclusion of nontumor related factors can improve prediction of long-term prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

METHODS

Nontumor related laboratory markers were assessed utilizing a training cohort from 2 U.S. institutions (n = 1,205). Factors independently associated with prognosis were used to develop a nontumor related prognostic score. The discriminatory ability, assessed by Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) and net reclassification improvement, was validated and compared with 3 commonly used tumor-related clinical risk scores: Fong clinical risk scores, m-clinical risk scores, and Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score in an external validation cohort from 5 Asian (n = 1,307) and 3 European (n = 1,058) institutions. The discriminatory ability of nontumor related prognostic score combined with each of these 3 tumor-related prognostic scores was also estimated.

RESULTS

Alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), albumin (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89), and mean corpuscular volume (hazard ratio 19.0, per log unit; 95% confidence interval, 4.79-75.0) were each independently associated with increased risk of death after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (all P < .05). In turn, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and mean corpuscular volume were combined to form a nontumor related prognostic score (2.942 × mean corpuscular volume + 0.399 × alkaline phosphatase-0.339 × albumin-12) × 10 (median, 16; range, 1-30). The nontumor related prognostic score had good-to-modest discriminatory ability in the external cohort (C-index = 0.58), which was comparable to the 3 established tumor-related prognostic scores (C-index: Fong clinical risk scores, 0.53, m-clinical risk scores, 0.55, GAME, 0.58). The addition of the nontumor related prognostic score to the tumor-related prognostic scores enhanced the discriminatory ability in the entire study cohort (C-index: nontumor related score+Fong, 0.60, nontumor related score+m-clinical risk scores, 0.61, nontumor related score+GAME, 0.64), as well reclassification improvement (42.5, 42.7%, and 21.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Nontumor related prognostic information may help improve the prognostic stratification of patients after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis. The nontumor related prognostic score may be combined with tumor-related prognostic tools to enhance prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

Tenofovir vs. entecavir on recurrence of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria after hepatectomy

Background:

Hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria is shown to be beneficial. However, a high rate of post-operative HCC recurrence hinders the long-term survival of the patients. This study aimed to investigate and compare the impacts of tenofovir (TDF) and entecavir (ETV) on the recurrence of hepatitis B viral (HBV)-related HCC beyond the Milan criteria.

Methods:

Data pertaining to 1532 patients who underwent hepatectomy and received antiviral therapy between January 2014 and January 2019 were collected from five centers. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) analysis was performed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors for HCC recurrence.

Results:

The analysis incorporates 595 HBV-related HCC patients. The overall 5-year RFS was 21.3%. Among them, 533 and 62 patients received ETV and TDF treatment, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates were 46.3%, 27.4%, and 19.6%, respectively, in the ETV group compared with 65.1%, 41.8%, and 37.2%, respectively, in the TDF group (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that TDF treatment (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.604, P = 0.005), cirrhosis (HR: 1.557, P = 0.004), tumor size (HR: 1.037, P = 0.008), microvascular invasion (MVI) (HR: 1.403, P = 0.002), portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) (HR: 1.358, P = 0.012), capsular invasion (HR: 1.228, P = 0.040), and creatinine levels (CREA) (HR: 0.993, P = 0.031) were statistically significant prognostic factors associated with RFS.

Conclusions:

Patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria exhibited a high rate of HCC recurrence after hepatectomy. Compared to the ETV therapy, TDF administration significantly lowered the risk of HCC recurrence.

Glycolysis-related gene expression profiling serves as a novel prognosis risk predictor for human hepatocellular carcinoma

Metabolic pattern reconstruction is an important factor in tumor progression. Metabolism of tumor cells is characterized by abnormal increase in anaerobic glycolysis, regardless of high oxygen concentration, resulting in a significant accumulation of energy from glucose sources. These changes promotes rapid cell proliferation and tumor growth, which is further referenced a process known as the Warburg effect. The current study reconstructed the metabolic pattern in progression of cancer to identify genetic changes specific in cancer cells. A total of 12 common types of solid tumors were included in the current study. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was performed to analyze 9 glycolysis-related gene sets, which are implicated in the glycolysis process. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent prognostic variables for construction of a nomogram based on clinicopathological characteristics and a glycolysis-related gene prognostic index (GRGPI). The prognostic model based on glycolysis genes showed high area under the curve (AUC) in LIHC (Liver hepatocellular carcinoma). The findings of the current study showed that 8 genes (AURKA, CDK1, CENPA, DEPDC1, HMMR, KIF20A, PFKFB4, STMN1) were correlated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Further analysis showed that the prediction model accurately distinguished between high- and low-risk cancer patients among patients in different clusters in LIHC. A nomogram with a well-fitted calibration curve based on gene expression profiles and clinical characteristics showed good discrimination based on internal and external cohorts. These findings indicate that changes in expression level of metabolic genes implicated in glycolysis can contribute to reconstruction of tumor-related microenvironment.

Liver Cancer Survival: A Real World Observation of 45 Years with 32,556 Cases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To explore the long-term trend of liver cancer survival, based on the real-world data (RWD) in the past 45 years from a population-based cancer registry, in Qidong, China.

METHODS

A number of 32,556 patients with liver cancer were registered during the period of 1972 to 2016. Mixed methods by active and passive follow-up were performed. Life table method was employed for survival analysis by SPSS22 software. Wilcoxon (Gehan) statistics was considered as a significant test. Relative survival was calculated by using SURV software, and its annual percent change (APC) was estimated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

RESULTS

The overall observed survival (OS) rates of 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year rates from the data series were 18.51%, 6.28%, 4.03%, and 2.84%, and their relative survival (RS) rates were 18.88%, 6.95%, 4.96%, and 4.49%, respectively. For 24,338 male cases, the 5-year OS and RS rates were 5.93% and 6.54%, and for 8218 female cases, 7.34% and 8.15%, respectively, with P values less than 0.01. Survival rates of liver cancer from three 15-year periods of 1972-1986, 1987-2001, and 2002-2016 have increased significantly, with 5-year OS rates of 2.02%, 4.40%, and 10.76%, 5-year RS rates of 2.18%, 4.83%, and 12.18%; 10-year OS and RS rates of 0.95%, 3.00%, and 7.02%, vs 1.13%, 3.65%, and 8.96%, respectively, showing a very significant upward trend (P<0.01). There are significant differences among age groups (P<0.01): those aged 55-64 demonstrated the best OS and RS rates of 5-year, being 8.44% and 9.09%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

There are significant gender and age differences in the survival rate of liver cancer in Qidong. RWD indicates the relative lower survival rate of liver cancer in this area, but great improvement has been achieved over the past decades.

Prognostic grade for resecting hepatocellular carcinoma: multicentre retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Surgical treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is advancing, but a robust prediction model for survival after resection is not available. The aim of this study was to propose a prognostic grading system for resection of HCC.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, multicentre study of patients who underwent first resection of HCC with curative intent between 2000 and 2007. Patients were divided randomly by a cross-validation method into training and validation sets. Prognostic factors were identified using a Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive model was built by decision-tree analysis to define the resection grades, and subsequently validated.

RESULTS

A total of 16 931 patients from 795 hospitals were included. In the training set (8465 patients), four surgical grades were classified based on prognosis: grade A1 (1236 patients, 14.6 per cent; single tumour 3 cm or smaller and anatomical R0 resection); grade A2 (3614, 42.7 per cent; single tumour larger than 3 cm, or non-anatomical R0 resection); grade B (2277, 26.9 per cent; multiple tumours, or vascular invasion, and R0 resection); and grade C (1338, 15.8 per cent; multiple tumours with vascular invasion and R0 resection, or R1 resection). Five-year survival rates were 73.9 per cent (hazard ratio (HR) 1.00), 64.7 per cent (HR 1.51, 95 per cent c.i. 1.29 to 1.78), 50.6 per cent (HR 2.53, 2.15 to 2.98), and 34.8 per cent (HR 4.60, 3.90 to 5.42) for grades A1, A2, B, and C respectively. In the validation set (8466 patients), the grades had equivalent reproducibility for both overall and recurrence-free survival (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This grade is used to predict prognosis of patients undergoing resection of HCC.

Effect of Diameter and Number of Hepatocellular Carcinomas on Survival After Resection, Transarterial Chemoembolization, and Ablation

INTRODUCTION

Most studies predicting survival after resection, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and ablation analyzed diameter and number of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) as dichotomous variables, resulting in an underestimation of risk variation. We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model for patients with HCC using largest diameter and number of HCCs as continuous variables.

METHODS

The prognostic model was developed using data from patients undergoing resection, TACE, and ablation in 645 Japanese institutions. The model results were shown after balanced using the inverse probability of treatment-weighted analysis and were externally validated in an international multi-institution cohort.

RESULTS

Of 77,268 patients, 43,904 patients, including 15,313 (34.9%) undergoing liver resection, 13,375 (30.5%) undergoing TACE, and 15,216 (34.7%) undergoing ablation, met the inclusion criteria. Our model (http://www.u-tokyo-hbp-transplant-surgery.jp/about/calculation.html) showed that the 5-year overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC undergoing these procedures decreased with progressive incremental increases in diameter and number of HCCs. For patients undergoing resection, the inverse probability of treatment-weighted-adjusted 5-year OS probabilities were 10%-20% higher compared with patients undergoing TACE for 1-6 HCC lesions <10 cm and were also 10%-20% higher compared with patients undergoing ablation when the HCC diameter was 2-3 cm. For patients undergoing resection and TACE, the model performed well in the external cohort.

DISCUSSION

Our novel prognostic model performed well in predicting OS after resection and TACE for HCC and demonstrated that resection may have a survival benefit over TACE and ablation based on the diameter and number of HCCs.

Rethinking the Barcelona clinic liver cancer guidelines: Intermediate stage and Child-Pugh B patients are suitable for surgery?

According to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer recommendations, intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinomas (stage B) are excluded from liver resection and are referred to palliative treatment. Moreover, Child-Pugh B patients are not usually candidates for liver resection. However, many hepatobiliary centers in the world manage patients with intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma or Child-Pugh B cirrhosis with liver resection, maintaining that hepatic resection is not contraindicated in selected patients with non–early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma and without normal liver function. Several studies demonstrate that resection provides the best survival benefit for selected patients in very early/early and even in intermediate stages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification, and this treatment gives good results in the setting of multinodular, large tumors in patients with portal hypertension and/or Child-Pugh B cirrhosis. In this review we explore this controversial topic, and we show through the literature analysis how liver resection may improve the short- and long-term survival rate of carefully selected Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer B and Child-Pugh B hepatocellular carcinoma patients. However, other large clinical studies are needed to clarify which patients with intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma are most likely to benefit from liver resection.

Efficacy of Liver Resection for Single Large Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis: Analysis of a Nationwide Cancer Registry Database

Background

Therapeutic strategies and good prognostic factors are important for patients with single large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study aimed to identify the prognostic factors in patients with single large HCC with good performance status and Child-Pugh A cirrhosis using a large national cancer registry database and to recommend therapeutic strategies.

Methods

Among 12139 HCC patients registered at the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry between 2008 and 2015, single large (≥ 5 cm) HCC patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0 and Child-Pugh score A were selected.

Results

Overall, 466 patients were analyzed. The 1-,2-,3-, and 5-year survival rates after initial treatment were 84.9%, 71.0%, 60.1%, and 51.6%, respectively, and progression-free survival rates were 43.6%, 33.0%, 29.0%, and 26.8%, respectively. Platelet count < 100 × 10⁹/L (P < 0.001), sodium level < 135 mmol/L (P = 0.002), maximum tumor diameter ≥ 10 cm (P = 0.001), and treatment other than resection (transarterial therapy vs. resection: P < 0.001, others vs. resection: P = 0.002) were significantly associated with poorer overall survival; sodium < 135 mmol/L (P = 0.015), maximum tumor diameter ≥ 10 cm (P < 0.001), and treatment other than resection (transarterial therapy vs. resection: P < 0.001, others vs. resection: P = 0.001) were independently associated with poorer progression-free survival.

Conclusion

Resection as an initial treatment should be considered when possible, even in patients with single large HCC with good performance status and mild cirrhosis. Caution should be exercised in patients with low platelet level (< 100 × 10⁹/L), low serum sodium level (< 135 mmol/L), and maximum tumor diameter ≥ 10 cm.

A Pre-Operative Prognostic Score for Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Who Underwent Resection

BACKGROUND

Previous studies demonstrated a promising prognosis in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent surgery, yet a consensus of which population would benefit most from surgery is still unreached.

METHOD

A total of 496 advanced HCC patients who initially underwent liver resection were consecutively collected. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to select significant pre-operative factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A prognostic score constructed from these factors was used to divide patients into different risk groups. Survivals were compared between groups with log-rank test. The area under curves (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of prognostic score.

RESULT

For the entire cohort, the median overall survival (OS) was 23.0 months and the median RFS was 12.1 months. Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the prognostic score constructed with ALBI score, tumor size, tumor-invaded liver segments, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, alpha fetoprotein, and portal vein tumor thrombus stage. The median RFS of the low-risk group was significantly longer than that of the high-risk group in both the training (10.1 vs 2.9 months, P<0.001) and the validation groups (13.7 vs 4.6 months, P=0.002). The AUCs of the prognostic score in predicting survival were 0.70 to 0.71 in the training group and 0.71 to 0.72 in the validation group.

CONCLUSION

Surgery could provide promising survival for HCC patients at an advanced stage. Our developed pre-operative prognostic score is effective in identifying advanced-stage HCC patients with better survival benefit for surgery.

The Recent Development of the Surgical Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The optimal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) should be selected based on tumor conditions, liver functional reserve, and performance status. Surgical treatment, such as liver resection and liver transplantation, is the most favorable treatment method; however, its indication criteria differ according to each country’s guidelines. In Western countries, liver resection is indicated only for early-stage HCC patients with Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer staging classification (BCLC) 0/A. While in Asian countries, liver resection is one of the treatment options for advanced HCC, such as BCLC B/C. Recently, the treatment of HCC is about to enter a drastic transitional period. It started with the widespread use of minimally invasive surgery for HCC, followed by a high rate of hepatitis C virus eradication with the advent of direct acting antivirals and developing a multidisciplinary treatment for highly advanced HCC. As a result, the importance of liver resection for HCC is increasing, and it is time to reconsider the criteria for selecting treatment methods for HCC patients. This article outlines current topics in the surgical treatment of HCC.

Synergistic Impact of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Tumor Burden on Long-Term Outcomes Following Curative-Intent Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic role of tumor burden score (TBS) relative to pre-operative α -fetoprotein (AFP) levels among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of HCC has not been examined.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection of HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from a multi-institutional database. The impact of TBS on overall survival (OS) and cumulative recurrence relative to serum AFP levels was assessed.

RESULTS

Among 898 patients, 233 (25.9%) patients had low TBS, 572 (63.7%) had medium TBS and 93 (10.4%) had high TBS. Both TBS (5-year OS; low TBS: 76.9%, medium TBS: 60.9%, high TBS: 39.1%) and AFP (>400 ng/mL vs. <400 ng/mL: 48.5% vs. 66.1%) were strong predictors of outcomes (both p < 0.001). Lower TBS was associated with better OS among patients with both low (5-year OS, low-medium TBS: 68.0% vs. high TBS: 47.7%, p < 0.001) and high AFP levels (5-year OS, low-medium TBS: 53.7% vs. high TBS: not reached, p < 0.001). Patients with low-medium TBS/high AFP had worse OS compared with individuals with low-medium TBS/low AFP (5-year OS, 53.7% vs. 68.0%, p = 0.003). Similarly, patients with high TBS/high AFP had worse outcomes compared with patients with high TBS/low AFP (5-year OS, not reached vs. 47.7%, p = 0.015). Patients with high TBS/low AFP and low TBS/high AFP had comparable outcomes (5-year OS, 47.7% vs. 53.7%, p = 0.24). The positive predictive value of certain TBS groups relative to the risk of early recurrence and 5-year mortality after HCC resection increased with higher AFP levels.

CONCLUSION

Both TBS and serum AFP were important predictors of prognosis among patients with resectable HCC. Serum AFP and TBS had a synergistic impact on prognosis following HCC resection with higher serum AFP predicting worse outcomes among patients with HCC of a certain TBS class.

Artificial intelligence in transplantation (machine-learning classifiers and transplant oncology)

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To highlight recent efforts in the development and implementation of machine learning in transplant oncology - a field that uses liver transplantation for the treatment of hepatobiliary malignancies - and particularly in hepatocellular carcinoma, the most commonly treated diagnosis in transplant oncology.

RECENT FINDINGS

The development of machine learning has occurred within three domains related to hepatocellular carcinoma: identification of key clinicopathological variables, genomics, and image processing.

SUMMARY

Machine-learning classifiers can be effectively applied for more accurate clinical prediction and handling of data, such as genetics and imaging in transplant oncology. This has allowed for the identification of factors that most significantly influence recurrence and survival in disease, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, and thus help in prognosticating patients who may benefit from a liver transplant. Although progress has been made in using these methods to analyse clinicopathological information, genomic profiles, and image processed data (both histopathological and radiomic), future progress relies on integrating data across these domains.

Multiple hepatocellular carcinoma: Long-term outcomes following resection beyond actual guidelines. An Italian multicentric retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is frequently diagnosed as multinodular. This study aims to assess prognostic factors for survival and identify patients with multiple HCC who may benefit from surgery beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification indications.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all the consecutive patients from 4 Italian tertiary centers receiving liver resection for naive multiple HCC between 1990 and 2012 to have a potential follow-up of 5 years.

RESULTS

Included patients were 144. Ninety-day morbidity and mortality rates were 38.3% and 8.3%, respectively. The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 33.3% and 19.1%, respectively. Tumor size <3 cm, bilirubin, Child-Pugh A, BCLC-A stage, being within "up-to-7" criteria, and minor resections resulted in prognostic factors. The Child-Pugh score resulted in an independent prognostic factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery may be related to good outcomes in selected patients with multiple HCC.

The potential association between metabolic syndrome and risk of post-surgical adhesion

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is defined by the clustering of several associated with a group of disorders that include: obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and insulin resistance. The incidence of MetS is increasing globally around the world. Indeed the rates of different types of surgery in older or younger patients with Mets are increasing and they are exposed to a wide range of operations including abdominal, pelvic, urologic, or any invasive procedures. Post-surgical adhesion is a common problem and is a challenge for the surgeon. Despite many studies on its pathogenesis, there remain many un-answered questions about it, for example why certain tissues and patients are more at higher risk of post-surgical adhesions. Many studies have suggested that MetS is associated with up-regulating molecular mechanisms leading to chronic inflammation and hypercoagulability. In this review, we discuss some of the molecular mechanisms by MetS may enhance post-surgical adhesion, and particularly regarding those involved in coagulation and inflammation.

Overall Tumor Burden Dictates Outcomes for Patients Undergoing Resection of Multinodular Hepatocellular Carcinoma Beyond the Milan Criteria

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the current study was to define surgical outcomes after resection of multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria, and develop a prediction tool to identify which patients likely benefit the most from resection.

BACKGROUND

Liver resection for multinodular HCC, especially beyond the Milan criteria, remains controversial. Rigorous selection of the best candidates for resection is essential to achieve optimal outcomes after liver resection of advanced tumors.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Patients were categorized according to Milan criteria status. Pre- and postoperative overall survival (OS) prediction models that included HCC tumor burden score (TBS) among patients with multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria were developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 1037 patients who underwent resection for HCC, 164 (15.8%) had multinodular HCC beyond the Milan criteria. Among patients with multinodular HCC, 25 (15.2%) patients experienced a serious complication and 90-day mortality was 3.7% (n = 6). Five-year OS after resection of multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria was 52.8%. A preoperative TBS-based model (5-year OS: low-risk, 73.7% vs intermediate-risk, 45.1% vs high-risk, 13.1%), and postoperative TBS-based model (5-year OS: low-risk, 80.1% vs intermediate-risk, 37.2% vs high-risk, not reached) categorized patients into distinct prognostic groups relative to long-term prognosis (both P < 0.001). Pre- and postoperative models could accurately stratify OS in an external validation cohort (5-year OS; low vs medium vs high risk; pre: 66.3% vs 25.2% vs not reached, P = 0.012; post: 61.4% vs 42.5% vs not reached, P = 0.045) Predictive accuracy of the pre- and postoperative models was good in the training (c-index; pre: 0.68; post: 0.71), internal validation (n = 2000 resamples) (c-index, pre: 0.70; post: 0.72) and external validation (c-index, pre: 0.67; post 0.68) datasets. TBS alone could stratify patients relative to 5-year OS after resection of multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria (c-index: 0.65; 5-year OS; low TBS: 70.2% vs medium TBS: 54.7% vs high TBS: 16.7%; P < 0.001). The vast majority of patients with low and intermediate TBS were deemed low or medium risk based on both the preoperative (98.4%) and postoperative risk scores (95.3%).

CONCLUSION

Prognosis of patients with multinodular HCC was largely dependent on overall tumor burden. Liver resection should be considered among patients with multinodular HCC beyond the Milan criteria who have a low- or intermediate-TBS.

A Five-Gene Signature for Recurrence Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most aggressive malignancies with poor prognosis. There are many selectable treatments with good prognosis in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer- (BCLC-) 0, A, and B HCC patients, but the most crucial factor affecting survival is the high recurrence rate after treatments. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the recurrence of BCLC-0, BCLC-A, and BCLC-B HCC patients.

Aim

To develop a gene signature to enhance the prediction of recurrence among HCC patients.

Materials and Methods

The RNA expression data and clinical data of HCC patients were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Univariate Cox regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis were conducted to screen primarily prognostic biomarkers in GSE14520. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was introduced to verify the prognostic role of these genes. Ultimately, 5 genes were demonstrated to be related with the recurrence of HCC patients and a gene signature was established. GSE76427 was adopted to further verify the accuracy of gene signature. Subsequently, a nomogram based on gene signature was performed to predict recurrence. Gene functional enrichment analysis was conducted to investigate the potential biological processes and pathways.

Results

We identified a five-gene signature which performs a powerful predictive ability in HCC patients. In the training set of GSE14520, area under the curve (AUC) for the five-gene predictive signature of 1, 2, and 3 years were 0.813, 0.786, and 0.766. Then, the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves of five-gene predictive signature were verified in the GSE14520 validation set, the whole GSE14520, and GSE76427, showed good performance. A nomogram comprising the five-gene signature was built so as to show a good accuracy for predicting recurrence-free survival of HCC patients.

Conclusion

The novel five-gene signature showed potential feasibility of recurrence prediction for early-stage HCC.

Combined hepatectomy and microwave ablation for multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma: Long-term outcomes and prognostic factors

BACKGROUND

It remains to be clarified whether combined hepatectomy and microwave ablation for multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is feasible. This aim of this study was to examine the perioperative and oncological outcomes after combined hepatectomy and microwave ablation for multifocal HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 81 patients who underwent combined hepatectomy and microwave ablation for multifocal HCC in our institute between June 1998 and December 2017. We analyzed overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), and evaluated factors related to prognosis.

RESULTS

Median follow-up time was 45.6 months for the entire cohort. OS rates were 1-year: 96%, 3-year: 72%, and 5-year: 54%; RFS rates were 1-year: 77%, 3-year: 37%, and 5-year: 22%. The major complication rate (Clavien-Dindo classification IIIa or above) after surgery was 10%, with one patient of in-hospital mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed that des-γ-carboxy prothrombin level >200 mAU/mL and >5 tumors were independent risk factors for OS, and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin level >200 mAU/mL, > 5 tumors, and maximum tumor size >5 cm were independent risk factors for RFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that combined hepatectomy and microwave ablation is safe and feasible for selected patients with multifocal HCC.

Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Microvascular Invasion: Experience from a Single Center

Background/Aims

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an established risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prediction models that specifically focus on the individual prognoses of HCC patients with MVI is lacking.

Methods

A total of 385 HCC patients with MVI were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts in a 2:1 ratio. The outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Prognostic nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analyses. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plots and Kaplan-Meier curves were employed to evaluate the accuracy, calibration and discriminatory ability of the models.

Results

The independent risk factors for both DFS and OS included age, tumor size, tumor number, the presence of gross vascular invasion, and the presence of Glisson’s capsule invasion. The platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio was another risk factor for OS. On the basis of these predictors, two nomograms for DFS and OS were constructed. The C-index values of the nomograms for DFS and OS were 0.712 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.679 to 0.745; p<0.001) and 0.698 (95% CI, 0.657 to 0.739; p<0.001), respectively, in the training cohort and 0.704 (95% CI, 0.650 to 0.708; p<0.001) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.607 to 0.739; p<0.001), respectively, in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed optimal agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. The Kaplan-Meier curves suggested that these two nomograms had satisfactory discriminatory abilities.

Conclusions

These novel predictive models have satisfactory accuracy and discriminatory abilities in predicting the prognosis of HCC patients with MVI after hepatectomy.

Recurrence Patterns and Outcomes after Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma within and beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Criteria

BACKGROUND

Several investigators have advocated for extending the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) resection criteria to select patients with BCLC-B and even BCLC-C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of the current study was to define the outcomes and recurrence patterns after resection within and beyond the current resection criteria.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC within (i.e., BCLC 0/A) and beyond (i.e. BCLC B/C) the current resection criteria between 2005 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), as well as patterns of recurrence of patients undergoing HCC resection within and beyond the BCLC guidelines were examined.

RESULTS

Among 756 patients, 602 (79.6%) patients were BCLC 0/A and 154 (20.4%) were BCLC B/C. Recurrences were mostly intrahepatic (within BCLC: 74.3% versus beyond BCLC: 70.8%, p = 0.80), with BCLC B/C patients more often having multiple tumors at relapse (69.6% versus 49.4%, p = 0.001) and higher rates of early (< 2 years) recurrence (88.0% versus 75.5%, p = 0.011). During the first postoperative year, annual recurrence was 38.3% and 21.3% among BCLC B/C and BCLC 0/A patients, respectively; 5-year OS among BCLC 0/A and BCLC B/C patients was 76.9% versus 51.6% (p = 0.003). On multivariable analysis, only a-fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/mL (HR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.07-3.15) and R1 resection (HR = 2.36, 95% CI 1.32-4.23) were associated with higher risk of recurrence among BCLC B/C patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery can provide acceptable outcomes among select patients with BCLC B/C HCC. The data emphasize the need to further refine the BCLC treatment algorithm as well as highlight the need for surveillance protocols with a particular focus on the liver, especially for patients undergoing resection outside the BCLC criteria.

Is laparoscopic liver resection suitable for selected patients with BCLC stage B HCC? A propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal treatment for patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial given the variability of tumour status within this group of patients. This aim of this study was to compare the outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in a subset of selected patients with BCLC stage B HCC.

METHODS

Patients with resectable BCLC stage B HCC who underwent treatment between April 2015 and October 2018 were identified for further analysis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to minimize effect of confounding factors. Perioperative and long-term outcomes were compared between the two groups and multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors related to the overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

From a total of 224 patients 70 were included into each group after PSM. The overall and major morbidity were comparable between the LLR and TACE groups (P = 0.700 and P = 0.500 after PSM, respectively). The OS in LLR group was significantly better than that in the TACE group (P < 0.001). Tumor number ≥4, the diameter of the biggest tumor >5 cm, and patients who underwent TACE were independent predictors of poorer OS.

CONCLUSIONS

LLR for selected patients with BCLC stage B HCC is safe and feasible and has improved survival as compared to TACE.

Hepatic Resection Is Associated With Improved Long-Term Survival Compared to Radio-Frequency Ablation in Patients With Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is of major public health interest. However, studies comparing hepatic resection (HR) and radio-frequency ablation (RFA) applied to multifocal HCC are limited. This study aimed to compare the efficacies of HR and RFA in patients with multifocal HCC.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2015. Disease-specific survival and overall survival rates were assessed before and after propensity score matching (PSM).

Results: In total, 2,201 patients with multifocal HCC treated with HR (n = 1,095) or RFA (n = 1,106) were included; 1,096 patients were identified after nearest-neighbor PSM at a ratio of 1:1 (HR: n = 548; RFA: n = 548). In the multivariate Cox regression model, HR was associated with significantly improved disease-specific survival [before PSM: hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57–0.79, p < 0.001; after PSM: hazard ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.82, p < 0.001] and overall survival (before PSM: hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.58–0.78, p < 0.001; after PSM: hazard ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.59–0.80, p < 0.001) compared to RFA in patients with multifocal HCC. In the survival curve analysis, the disease-specific survival of the HR group was similar to that of the RFA group before PSM (p = 0.936, log-rank test) but was significantly longer after PSM (p < 0.001) in all patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that differentiation grade, alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, and tumor extension were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with multifocal HCC.

Conclusions: The long-term survival rate of HR is better than that of RFA in patients with multifocal HCC. HR may serve as a first-line treatment for patients with multifocal HCC. The presence of large tumors and vascular invasion are not contraindications for HR.

Utilizing Machine Learning for Pre- and Postoperative Assessment of Patients Undergoing Resection for BCLC-0, A and B Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Implications for Resection Beyond the BCLC Guidelines

BACKGROUND

There is an ongoing debate about expanding the resection criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) guidelines. We sought to determine the factors that held the most prognostic weight in the pre- and postoperative setting for each BCLC stage by applying a machine learning method.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for BCLC-0, A and B HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate homogeneous groups of patients relative to overall survival (OS) based on pre- and postoperative factors.

RESULTS

Among 976 patients, 63 (6.5%) had BCLC-0, 745 (76.3%) had BCLC-A, and 168 (17.2%) had BCLC-B HCC. Five-year OS among BCLC-0/A and BCLC-B patients was 64.2% versus 50.2%, respectively (p = 0.011). The preoperative CART model selected α-fetoprotein (AFP) and Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) as the first and second most important preoperative factors of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas radiologic tumor burden score (TBS) was the best predictor of OS among BCLC-B patients. The postoperative CART model revealed lymphovascular invasion as the best postoperative predictor of OS among BCLC-0/A patients, whereas TBS remained the best predictor of long-term outcomes among BCLC-B patients in the postoperative setting. On multivariable analysis, pathologic TBS independently predicted worse OS among BCLC-0/A (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.07) and BCLC-B patients (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.19) undergoing resection.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic stratification of patients undergoing resection for HCC within and beyond the BCLC resection criteria should include assessment of AFP and comorbidities for BCLC-0/A patients, as well as tumor burden for BCLC-B patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma tumour burden score to stratify prognosis after resection

BACKGROUND

Although the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been largely adopted in clinical practice, recent studies have emphasized the need for further refinement and subclassification of this system.

METHODS

Patients who underwent hepatectomy with curative intent for BCLC-0, -A or -B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between 2000 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The tumour burden score (TBS) was calculated, and overall survival (OS) was examined in relation to TBS and BCLC stage.

RESULTS

Among 1053 patients, 63 (6·0 per cent) had BCLC-0, 826 (78·4 per cent) BCLC-A and 164 (15·6 per cent) had BCLC-B HCC. OS worsened incrementally with higher TBS (5-year OS 77·9, 61 and 39 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P < 0·001). No differences in OS were noted among patients with similar TBS, irrespective of BCLC stage (61·6 versus 58·9 per cent for BCLC-A/medium TBS versus BCLC-B/medium TBS, P = 0·930; 45 versus 13 per cent for BCLC-A/high TBS versus BCLC-B/high TBS, P = 0·175). Patients with BCLC-B HCC and a medium TBS had better OS than those with BCLC-A disease and a high TBS (58·9 versus 45 per cent; P = 0·005). On multivariable analysis, TBS remained associated with OS among patients with BCLC-A (medium TBS: hazard ratio (HR) 2·07, 95 per cent c.i. 1·42 to 3·02, P < 0·001; high TBS: HR 4·05, 2·40 to 6·82, P < 0·001) and BCLC-B (high TBS: HR 3·85, 2·03 to 7·30; P < 0·001) HCC. TBS could also stratify prognosis among patients in an external validation cohort (5-year OS 79, 51·2 and 28 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P = 0·010).

CONCLUSION

The prognosis of patients with HCC varied according to the BCLC stage but was largely dependent on the TBS.

The presence of microvascular invasion guides treatment strategy in recurrent HBV-related HCC

OBJECTIVES

We used the status of microvascular invasion (MVI) at primary resection to help treatment selection for hepatitis B virus-positive (HBV+) recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) patients in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B-C.

METHODS

From 2009 to 2017, we enrolled 221 consecutive HBV+ rHCC patients at BCLC stage B-C who underwent re-resection (RR), radiofrequency ablation (RFA), or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Post recurrence survival (PRS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between RR/RFA and TACE according to MVI status. A one-to-one propensity score matching analysis was performed.

RESULTS

For MVI(-) patients, the median PRS was 62.3 months for the RR/RFA group and 21.1 months for the TACE group (p = 0.039). The corresponding OS was 71.4 months and 26.6 months, respectively (p = 0.010). For MVI(+) patients, the median PRS in the RR/RFA group and TACE group was 14.7 months and 10.1 months (p = 0.115). The corresponding OS was 23.4 months and 16.4 months, respectively (p = 0.067). After matching, the dominance of RR/RFA over TACE remained in MVI(-) patients for both PRS (62.3 months vs 15.3 months, p = 0.019) and OS (98.1 months vs 33.4 months, p = 0.046). No significant difference was found in MVI(+) patients for either PRS (14.7 months vs 11.8 months, p = 0.593) or OS (23.4 months vs 28.1 months, p = 0.662).

CONCLUSIONS

MVI status definitely helps select treatment options in HBV+ rHCC patients. For MVI(-) patients, RR/RFA provided better survival than TACE while for MVI(+) patients, TACE shared similar survival outcomes.

KEY POINTS

• This study aimed at the determination of the optimal treatment options (ablation /resection vs TACE) in case of recurrent HBV-related HCC. • It showed that MVI status, established at primary resection of HCC, was a powerful marker for selecting the best treatment option in these patients. • In MVI(-) patients, RR/RFA achieved a better survival than TACE. In MVI(+) patients, TACE shared similar survival.

The Acetone Indigo Red Dehydrating Agent IF203 Induces HepG2 Cell Death Through Cell Cycle Arrest, Autophagy and Apoptosis

Background

Isatin derivatives have extensive biological activities, such as antitumor. IF203, a novel isatin derivative, has not previously been reported to have antitumor activity.

Methods

Acid phosphatase assays (APAs) and Ki-67 immunohistochemistry were used to detect the proliferation of HepG2 cells. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) was applied to detect ultrastructural changes. Flow cytometry (FCM) was used to detect cell cycle, apoptosis, reactive oxygen species (ROS) and mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) of HepG2 cells in vitro. TUNEL, MMP and ROS immunofluorescence assays were applied to assess apoptosis, MMP, and ROS of HepG2 cells in vivo. Western Blotting was applied to assess the levels of apoptosis- and autophagy-related proteins.

Results

In this study, in vivo and in vitro experiments showed that IF203 possesses antitumor activity. The results of APAs and Ki-67 immunohistochemistry demonstrated that IF203 could inhibit the proliferation of HepG2 cells. Cell cycle assays, downregulation of Cyclin B1 and Cdc2, and upregulation of P53 suggested that IF203 could lead to G2/M cell cycle arrest. In addition, ultrastructural changes, apoptosis assays, TUNEL immunofluorescence results, upregulated expression of Bax, and downregulated expression of Bcl-2 suggest that IF203 can induce apoptosis in HepG2 cells. After IF203 treatment, intracellular ROS levels increased, MMP decreased, JC-1 green fluorescence was enhanced, and the levels of Caspase-9, Caspase-3 and Cytochrome C expression were upregulated, suggesting that IF203 could induce apoptosis of HepG2 cells through the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway. Moreover, characteristic apoptotic ultrastructural changes were accompanied by the appearance of many autophagy bubbles and upregulation of Atg5, Atg12, ULK1, Beclin-1 and LC3-II proteins, suggesting that IF203 could induce autophagy in HepG2 cells.

Conclusion

This study showed that IF203 leads to the death of HepG2 cells through cell cycle arrest, apoptotic induction, and autophagy promotion.

NIACE score refines the overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma by Barcelona clinic liver cancer staging

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The NIACE score provides prognostic values for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in European studies. We aim to evaluate the prognostic value of the NIACE score in Asian patients.

METHODS

Patients with HCC were retrospectively enrolled from a tertiary medical center in Taiwan during 2009-2014, and their clinical information were collected. The NIACE score was calculated according to the Nodular numbers, tumor Infiltration, Alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh score, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score. The prognostic values of NIACE score for overall survival according to individual treatment and the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 468 patients were included with a median follow-up of 30 months. A greater NIACE score correlated with lower median survival and higher BCLC staging. Regardless of treatment modalities, NIACE scores (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival between groups (log-rank P < 0.001). Specifically, NIACE score (0, 1-1.5, 2.5-3, and 4-7) significantly predicted survival in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (log-rank P < 0.001). NIACE score 1, 2.5, and 4 further distinguished overall survival in BCLC A, B, and C patients, respectively (all log-rank P < 0.01). After adjustment of the confounders and the BCLC staging, NIACE score of 2.5-3 and 4-7 (vs 0) had a significantly increased risk of mortality with a hazard ratio of 4.04 (95% confidence interval: 2.14-7.64, P < 0.001) and 7.45 (95% confidence interval: 3.22-17.23, P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The NIACE score helps refine differential prognosis among BCLC A, B, and C subgroups of Asian patients with HCC, especially in those receiving transarterial chemoembolization.