Hepatocellular carcinoma tumour burden score to stratify prognosis after resection

Survival analysis of the surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma at a tertiary care center

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary malignant tumor of liver epithelial cells and is the most frequent primary liver cancer. The broadening of transplantation and resectability criteria has made therapeutic decisions more complex. Our aim was to describe the clinical and survival characteristics of patients with HCC treated through resection or liver transplantation at our hospital and identify the presence of factors that enable outcome prediction and facilitate therapeutic decision-making.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with HCC that underwent surgery with curative intent at the Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla, within the time frame of 2007 and 2017, were retrospectively identified. Survival, mortality, disease-free interval, and different outcome-related variables were analyzed.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients with a mean follow-up after surgery of 44 months were included. Overall mortality and recurrence were higher in the resection group. Mean survival was 51.4 months in the liver transplantation group and 37.5 months in the resection group, and the disease-free interval was 49.4 ± 37.2 and 27.4 ± 28.7 months, respectively (p = 0.002). The tumor burden score was statistically significant regarding risk for recurrence and specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There appears to be no patient subgroup in whom the results of surgical resection were superior or comparable to those of transplantation. Tumor burden determination could be a useful tool for patient subclassification and help guide therapeutic decision-making.

A preoperative model to predict overall survival in patients with hepatoma undergoing resection

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop a preoperative model to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatoma undergoing liver resection (LR).

METHODS

Patients who underwent LR for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0, A, or B hepatoma were enrolled. Tumor burden score (TBS) scores were determined using the following equation: TBS (Pinna et al., 2018) 2 = (largest tumor size [in cm])(Pinna et al., 2018) 2 ​+ ​(tumor number) (Pinna et al., 2018) 22. The cutoff values for radiographic TBS were based on our recently published paper: low, <2.6; medium, 2.6-7.9; high, >7.9.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that radiographic TBS (low: referent; medium: HR ​= ​2.89; 95 ​% CI: 1.60-5.21; p ​< ​0.001; high, HR ​= ​7.60; 95 ​% CI: 3.80-15.2; p ​< ​0.001), AFP (<400 ​ng/mL: referent; ≧400 ​ng/mL: HR ​= ​1.67, 95 ​% CI: 1.11-2.52, p ​= ​0.014), and cirrhosis (absence: referent; presence: HR ​= ​1.88, 95 ​% CI: 1.30-2.72, p ​< ​0.001) were associated with OS. A simplified risk score was superior to BCLC system in concordance index (0.688 vs. 0.623).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a preoperative model that performs better in predicting OS than the BCLC system.

Construction and validation of a novel tumor morphology immune inflammatory nutritional score (TIIN score) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Tumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory levels, and nutritional status play critical roles in the progression of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This multicenter study aimed to investigate the association between markers related to tumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory levels, and nutritional status with the prognosis of ICC patients. Additionally, a novel tumor morphology immune inflammatory nutritional score (TIIN score), integrating these factors was constructed.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on 418 patients who underwent radical surgical resection and had postoperative pathological confirmation of ICC between January 2016 and January 2020 at three medical centers. The cohort was divided into a training set (n = 272) and a validation set (n = 146). The prognostic significance of 16 relevant markers was assessed, and the TIIN score was derived using LASSO regression. Subsequently, the TIIN-nomogram models for OS and RFS were developed based on the TIIN score and the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive performance of the TIIN-nomogram models was evaluated using ROC survival curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The TIIN score, derived from albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), albumin-globulin ratio (AGR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and tumor burden score (TBS), effectively categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups using the optimal cutoff value. Compared to individual metrics, the TIIN score demonstrated superior predictive value for both OS and RFS. Furthermore, the TIIN score exhibited strong associations with clinical indicators including obstructive jaundice, CEA, CA19-9, Child-pugh grade, perineural invasion, and 8th edition AJCC N stage. Univariate and multivariate analysis confirmed the TIIN score as an independent risk factor for postoperative OS and RFS in ICC patients (p < 0.05). Notably, the TIIN-nomogram models for OS and RFS, constructed based on the multivariate analysis and incorporating the TIIN score, demonstrated excellent predictive ability for postoperative survival in ICC patients.

CONCLUSION

The development and validation of the TIIN score, a comprehensive composite index incorporating tumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory level, and nutritional status, significantly contribute to the prognostic assessment of ICC patients. Furthermore, the successful application of the TIIN-nomogram prediction model underscores its potential as a valuable tool in guiding individualized treatment strategies for ICC patients. These findings emphasize the importance of personalized approaches in improving the clinical management and outcomes of ICC.

Local recurrence risk factors and outcomes in minimally invasive thermal ablation for liver tumors: a single-institution analysis

BACKGROUND

Minimally Invasive thermal ablation (MITA) of liver tumors is a commonly performed procedure, alone or in combination with liver resection. Despite being a first-option strategy for small lesions, it is technically demanding, and many concerns still exist about local disease control.

METHODS

Consecutive patients undergoing MITA from 1-2019 to 12-2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Risk factors of local recurrence were investigated through univariate and multivariable cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

At the multivariable analysis of the 207 nodules undergoing MITA, RFA was associated with worse local Recurrence Free Survival (lRFS) than MWA (HR 2.87 [95 % CI 0.96-8.66], p = 0.05), as well as a concomitant surgical resection (HR 3.89 [95 % CI 1.06-9.77], p = 0.02). A concomitant surgical resection showed worse lRFS in the subgroup analysis of both HCC (HR 3.98 [95 % CI 1.16-13.62], p = 0.02) and CRLM patients (HR 2.68 [95 % CI 0.66-5.92], p = 0.04). Interestingly, a tumor size between 30 and 40 mm was not associated to worse lRFS.

CONCLUSION

MWA may reduce the risk of local recurrence in comparison to RFA, while MITA associated to liver resection may face an increased risk of local recurrence. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm such results.

Impact of hepatic inflammation and fibrosis on the recurrence and long-term survival of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Underlying liver disease is correlated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, the impact of hepatic inflammation and fibrosis on the patients' prognoses remains unclear.

METHODS

The clinicopathological data of 638 HBV-infected patients with early-stage HCC between 2017 and 2019 were prospectively collected. Hepatic inflammation and fibrosis were evaluated by experienced pathologists using the Scheuer score system. Survival analysis was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Application of the Scheuer scoring system revealed that 50 (7.9%), 274 (42.9%), and 314 (49.2%) patients had minor, intermediate, and severe hepatic inflammation, respectively, and 125 (15.6%), 150 (23.5%), and 363 (56.9%) patients had minor fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively. Patients with severe hepatitis tended to have a higher rate of HBeAg positivity, higher HBV-DNA load, elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and a lower proportion of capsule invasion (all Pp < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the recurrence-free and overall survival among the three groups (P = 0.52 and P = 0.66, respectively). Patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis had a higher proportion of HBeAg positivity and thrombocytopenia, higher FIB-4, and larger tumor size compared to those with minor fibrosis (all P < 0.05). Patients with minor, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis had similar prognoses after hepatectomy (P = 0.48 and P = 0.70). The multivariate analysis results indicated that neither hepatic inflammation nor fibrosis was an independent predictor associated with prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

For HBV-related HCC patients receiving antiviral therapy, hepatic inflammation and fibrosis had little impact on the post-hepatectomy prognosis.

Tumor burden score and carcinoembryonic antigen predict outcomes in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma following liver resection: a multi‑institutional analysis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of tumor burden score (TBS) in relation to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) has not been investigated among patients undergoing hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified model, a combination of TBS and CEA (CTC grade), for predicting the long-term outcomes of postoperative ICC patients.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative - intent resection of ICC between 2011 and 2019 were identified from a large multi - institutional database. The impact of TBS, CEA, and the CTC grade on overall survival (OS) and recurrence - free survival (RFS) was evaluated in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized for assessing the predictive accuracy of the model. Subgroup analyses were performed across 8th TNM stage system stratified by CTC grade to assess the discriminatory capacity within the same TNM stage.

RESULTS

A total of 812 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 266 patients in the validation cohort. Survival varied based on CEA (low: 36.7% vs. high: 9.0%) and TBS (low: 40.3% vs. high: 17.6%) in relation to 5 - year survival (both p < 0.001). As expected, patients with low CTC grade (i.e., low TBS/low CEA) were associated with the best OS as well as RFS, while high CTC grade (i.e., high TBS/high CEA) correlated to the worst outcomes. The model exhibited well performance in both the derivation cohort (area under the curve of 0.694) and the validation cohort (0.664). The predictive efficacy of the CTC grade system remains consistently stable across TNM stages I and III/IV.

CONCLUSION

The CTC grade, a composite parameter derived from the combination of TBS and CEA levels, served as an easy - to - use tool and performed well in stratifying patients with ICC relative to OS and RFS.

Construction of a prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization treatment based on the Tumor Burden Score

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may have varied outcomes based on their liver function and tumor burden diversity. This study aims to assess the prognostic significance of the tumor burden score (TBS) in these patients and develop a prognostic model for their overall survival.

METHODS

The study involved a retrospective analysis of 644 newly diagnosed HCC patients undergoing TACE treatment. The individuals were assigned randomly to a training cohort (n = 452) and a validation cohort (n = 192). We utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk model to identify independent preoperative predictive factors. We then evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (c-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) methods.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis revealed four prognostic factors associated with overall survival: Tumor Burden Score, Tumor Extent, Types of portal vein invasion (PVI), and Child-Pugh score. The total score was calculated based on these factors. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability with high AUC values and c-index, providing high net clinical benefits for patients. Based on the model's scoring results, patients were categorized into high, medium, and low-risk groups. These results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The tumor burden score shows promise as a viable alternative prognostic indicator for assessing tumor burden in cases of HCC. The new prognostic model can place patients in one of three groups, which will estimate their individual outcomes. For high-risk patients, it is suggested to consider alternative treatment options or provide the best supportive care, as they may not benefit significantly from TACE treatment.

The tumor burden score may be a discriminator in microwave ablation versus liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria: a propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting study

Purpose

This study aims to compare the prognostic outcome of resection (RES) and microwave ablation (MWA) in different tumor burden score (TBS) cohorts.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 479 patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent RES (n = 329) or MWA (n = 150) with curative intent at our institution. We assessed their overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were performed to minimize selection and confounding biases. Multivariate Cox regression was used to define the association between surgical modalities and outcomes.

Results

Following PSM, in the TBS ≤3 cohort, the cumulative 1-, 3-, 5- year OS in the RES and MWA groups were 92.5% vs. 98.8%, 82.7% vs. 90.0%, and 82.7% vs. 83.2% (P = 0.366), respectively. The corresponding PFS rates in the RES and MWA groups were 82.7% vs. 88.0%, 63.6% vs. 68.3% and 55.2% vs. 56.3, respectively (P = 0.218). In the TBS >3 cohort, the cumulative 1-, 3-, 5- year OS between the RES and MWA groups were 92.5% vs. 95.0%, 82.8% vs. 73.2% and 76.3% vs. 55.1%, (P = 0.034), respectively. The corresponding PFS rates in the RES and MWA groups were 78.0% vs. 67.5%, 63.6% vs. 37.5% and 55.2% vs. 37.1%, respectively (P = 0.044). The IPTW analysis showed similar results as shown in PSM analysis. The multivariate Cox regression indicated that the type of surgical modality was not associated with a poorer prognostic outcome in the TBS ≤3 cohort, unlike in the TBS >3 cohort.

Conclusion

TBS, as a discriminator, might help guide treatment decision-making for HCC within the Milan criteria.

The complication-overall survival (CompOS) risk tool predicts risk of a severe postoperative complications relative to long-term survival among patients with primary liver cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a tool based on preoperative factors to predict the risk of perioperative complications based on the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and long-term survival outcomes after liver resection for primary liver cancer.

METHODS

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy between 1990 and 2020 were identified using a multi-institutional international database.

RESULTS

Among 1411 patients who underwent curative-intent hepatic resection (HCC: 997, 70.7%; ICC: 414, 29.3%), median patient age was 66.0 years (IQR, 57.0-73.0), and most patients were male (n = 1001, 70.9%). In the postoperative setting, 699 patients (49.5%) experienced a complication; moreover, 112 patients (7.9%) had major complications. Although most patients had a favorable risk complication-overall survival (CompOS) profile (CCI score > 40 risk of <30% and median survival of >5 years: n = 778, 55.1%), 553 patients (39.2%) had an intermediate-risk profile, and 80 patients (5.7%) had a very unfavorable risk profile (CCI score > 40 risk of ≥30% and/or median survival of ≤1.5 years). The areas under the curve of the test and validation cohorts were 0.73 and 0.76, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CompOS risk model accurately stratified patients relative to short- and long-term risks, identifying a subset of patients at a high risk of major complications and poor overall survival.

PIVKA-II combined with tumor burden score to predict long-term outcomes of AFP-negative hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver resection

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish a simple prognostic scoring model based on tumor burden score (TBS) and PIVKA-II to predict long-term outcomes of α-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

511 patients were divided into the training cohort (n = 305) and the validation cohort (n = 206) at a ratio of 6:4. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were established to identify cutoff values of TBS and PIVKA-II. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze survival outcomes. The multivariable Cox regression was used to identify variables independently associated with survival outcomes. The predictive performance of the TBS-PIVKA II score (TPS) model was compared with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC TNM) stage.

RESULTS

The present study established the TPS model using a simple scoring system (0, 1 for low/high TBS [cutoff value: 4.1]; 0, 1 for low/high PIVKA-II [cutoff value: 239 mAU/mL]). The TPS scoring model was divided into three levels according to the summation of TBS score and PIVKA-II score: TPS 0, TPS 1, and TPS 2. The TPS scoring model was able to stratify OS (training: p < 0.001, validation: p < 0.001) and early recurrence (training: p < 0.001; validation: p = 0.001) in the training cohort and the validation cohort. The TPS score was independently associated with OS (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.01-5.17; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 4.21, 95% CI: 2.01-8.84) and early recurrence (TPS 1 vs. 0, HR: 3.50, 95% CI: 1.71-7.16; TPS 2 vs. 0, HR: 3.79, 95% CI: 1.86-7.75) in the training cohort. The TPS scoring model outperformed BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence in the training cohort and the validation cohort. But the TPS scoring model was unable to stratify the late recurrence in the training cohort (p = 0.872) and the validation cohort (p = 0.458).

CONCLUSIONS

The TPS model outperformed the BCLC stage and AJCC TNM stage in predicting OS and early recurrence of AFP-negative HCC patients after liver resection, which might better assist surgeons in screening AFP-negative HCC patients who may benefit from liver resection.

Impact of guideline adherence on the prognosis of Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are considerably heterogeneous in terms of tumor burden, liver function, and performance status. To improve the poor survival outcomes of these patients, treatment approaches other than transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is recommended by HCC guidelines, have been adopted in real-world clinical practice. We hypothesize that this non-adherence to treatment guidelines, particularly with respect to the use of liver resection, improves survival in patients with stage B HCC.

AIM

To assess guideline adherence in South Korean patients with stage B HCC and study its impact on survival.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 2008 to 2016 obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. Patients with stage B HCC were categorized into three treatment groups, guideline-adherent, upward, and downward, based on HCC guidelines recommended by the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD). The primary outcome was HCC-related deaths; tumor recurrence served as the secondary outcome. Survival among the groups was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Predictors of survival outcomes were identified using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

In South Korea, over the study period from 2008 to 2016, a notable trend was observed in adherence to HCC guidelines. Adherence to the EASL guidelines started relatively high, ranging from 77% to 80% between 2008 and 2012, but it gradually declined to 58.8% to 71.6% from 2013 to 2016. Adherence to the AASLD guidelines began at 71.7% to 75.9% from 2008 to 2010, and then it fluctuated between 49.2% and 73.8% from 2011 to 2016. In contrast, adherence to the APASL guidelines remained consistently high, staying within the range of 90.14% to 94.5% throughout the entire study period. Upward treatment, for example with liver resection, liver transplantation, or radiofrequency ablation, significantly improved the survival of patients with BCLC stage B HCC compared to that of patients treated in adherence to the guidelines (for patients analyzed according to the 2000 EASL guidelines, the 5-year survival rates were 63.4% vs 27.2%, P < 0.001), although results varied depending on the guidelines. Progression-free survival rates were also significantly improved upon the use of upward treatments in certain groups. Patients receiving upward treatments were typically < 70 years old, had platelet counts > 105/μL, and serum albumin levels ≥ 3.5 g/dL.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to guidelines significantly influences survival in South Korean stage B HCC patients. Curative treatments outperform TACE, but liver resection should be selected with caution due to disease heterogeneity.

Modified integrated tumor burden, liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor biology score to predict long-term outcomes after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

A preoperative predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can help stratify patients who undergo resection relative to long-term outcomes and tailor treatment strategies.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. A risk score (mFIBA) was developed using an Eastern cohort and then validated using a Western cohort.

RESULTS

Among 957 patients, 443 and 514 patients were included from the Eastern and Western cohorts, respectively. On multivariable analysis, alpha-feto protein (HR1.97, 95%CI 1.42-2.72), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR1.74, 95%CI 1.28-2.38), albumin-bilirubin grade (HR1.66, 95%CI 1.21-2.28), and imaging tumor burden score (HR1.25, 95%CI 1.12-1.40) were associated with OS. The c-index in the Eastern test and Western validation cohorts were 0.69 and 0.67, respectively. Notably, mFIBA score outperformed previous HCC staging systems. 5-year OS incrementally decreased with an increase in mFIBA. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, the mFIBA score was associated with worse OS (HR1.18, 95%CI 1.13-1.23) and higher risk of recurrence (HR1.16, 95%CI 1.11-1.20). An easy-to-use calculator of the mFIBA score was made available online (https://yutaka-endo.shinyapps.io/mFIBA_score/).

DISCUSSION

The online mFIBA calculator may help surgeons with clinical decision-making to individualize perioperative treatment strategies for patients undergoing resection of HCC.

Using the hazard function to evaluate hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence risk after curative resection

Predicting recurrence patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be helpful in developing surveillance strategies. This study aimed to use the hazard function to investigate recurrence hazard and peak recurrence time transitions in patients with HCC undergoing liver resection (LR). We enrolled 1204 patients with HCC undergoing LR between 2007 and 2018 at our institution. Recurrence hazard, patterns, and peak rates were analyzed. The overall recurrence hazard peaked at 7.2 months (peak hazard rate [pHR]: 0.0197), but varied markedly. In subgroups analysis based on recurrence risk factors, patients with a high radiographic tumor burden score (pHR: 0.0521), alpha-fetoprotein level ≥ 400 ng/ml (pHR: 0.0427), and pT3-4 (pHR: 0.0656) showed a pronounced peak within the first year after LR. Patients with cirrhosis showed a pronounced peak within three years after LR (pHR: 0.0248), whereas those with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B (pHR: 0.0609) and poor tumor differentiation (pHR: 0.0451) showed multiple peaks during the 5-year follow-up period. In contrast, patients without these recurrence risk factors had a relatively flat hazard function curve. HCC recurrence hazard, patterns, and peak rates varied substantially depending on different risk factors of HCC recurrence.

An MRI-Based Prognostic Stratification System for Medical Decision-Making of Multinodular Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Beyond the Milan Criteria

BACKGROUND

The suitability of hepatectomy among patients with multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (MHCC) beyond the Milan criteria remains controversial. There is a need for a reliable risk stratification tool among these patients for the selection of ideal candidates of curative resection.

PURPOSE

To determine the clinicoradiological prognostic factors for patients with MHCC beyond the Milan criteria to further develop a stratification system.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

SUBJECTS

176 patients with pathologically confirmed MHCC beyond the Milan criteria.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

The 1.5 T scanner, including T1-, T2-, diffusion-weighted imaging, in/out-phase imaging, and dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging.

ASSESSMENT

Conventional MRI features and preoperative laboratory data including aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) were collected and analyzed. Two nomograms incorporating clinicoradiological variables were independently constructed to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) with Cox regression analyses and verified with 5-fold cross validation. Based on the nomograms, two prognostic stratification systems for RFS and OS were further developed.

STATISTICAL TESTS

The Cohen's kappa/intraclass correlation coefficient, C-index, calibration curve, Kaplan-Meier curve, log-rank test. A P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

AST > 40 U/L, increased tumor burden score, radiological liver cirrhosis and nonsmooth tumor margin were independent predictors for poor RFS, while AST > 40 U/L, AFP > 400 ng/mL and radiological liver cirrhosis were independent predictors for poor OS. The two nomograms demonstrated good discrimination performance with C-index of 0.653 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.602-0.794) and 0.685 (95% CI, 0.623-0.747) for RFS and OS, respectively. The 5-fold cross validation further validated the discrimination capability of the nomograms. Based on the nomogram models, MHCC patients beyond the Milan criteria were stratified into low-/medium-/high-risk groups with significantly different RFS and OS.

DATA CONCLUSION

The proposed MRI-based prognostic stratification system facilitates the refinement and further subclassification of patients with MHCC beyond the Milan criteria.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

4.

TECHNICAL EFFICACY

2.

Albumin-Based Liver Reserve Models vs. MELD 3.0 in Prognostic Prediction for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Renal Insufficiency

The severity of liver functional reserve is an important prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), easy (EZ)-ALBI, platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI), platelet-albumin (PAL) score, and MELD 3.0 score are used to evaluate the severity of liver dysfunction. However, their prognostic role in HCC patients, specifically with renal insufficiency (RI), is unclear. We aimed to investigate the predictive accuracy of the five models in these patients. A total of 1120 newly diagnosed HCC patients with RI were enrolled. A multivariate Cox proportional analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with survival. In the Cox model, older age, an α-fetoprotein ≥20 ng/mL, vascular invasion, a medium and high tumor burden score, poor performance status, a higher ALBI grade, an EZ-ALBI grade, a PALBI grade, a PAL grade, and MELD 3.0 score were all independently associated with decreased overall survival (all p < 0.001). Among the five liver reserve models, the ALBI grade is the best surrogate marker to represent liver functional reserve in terms of outcome prediction. The albumin-based liver reserve models (ALBI, EZ-ALBI, PALBI, and PAL) and MELD 3.0 are all feasible prognostic markers to indicate liver injury, specifically in HCC patients with RI. Among them, the ALBI grade is the most robust tool for survival prediction in these patients.

Surgical Management of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Quo Vadis

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is the second most common primary liver malignancy related to very high mortality rates [...].

A novel prognostic model based on AFP, tumor burden score and Albumin-Bilirubin grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop prognostic scores, including the tumor burden score (TBS) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, for evaluating the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled treatment-naïve HCC patients with BCLC 0-A who underwent RFA between January 2009 and December 2019. Regular follow-up was conducted after RFA to determine progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The patients were randomly allocated to the training or validation datasets in a 1:1 ratio. Preoperative prognostic scores were developed based on the results of multivariate analysis. The discriminatory ability of the scores was assessed using time-dependent AUC and compared with other models.

RESULTS

Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level and TBS were identified as independent prognostic factors for PFS, while serum AFP, TBS, and ALBI were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS in HCC patients after RFA. The time-dependent AUCs of the AFP-TBS score for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year PFS were 0.651, 0.667, and 0.620, respectively, in the training set, and 0.657, 0.687, and 0.704, respectively, in the validation set. For the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, the time-dependent AUCs were 0.680, 0.712, and 0.666, respectively, in the training set, and 0.712, 0.706 and 0.726 in the validation set for the AFP-TBS-ALBI score (ATA). The C-indices and AIC demonstrated that the scores provided better clinical benefits compared to other models.

CONCLUSION

The ATA/AT score, derived from clinical and objective laboratory variables, can assist in individually predicting the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing curative RFA.

Assessing textbook outcome after single large hepatocellular carcinoma resection

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the impact and predictors of an ideal surgical care following SLHCC resection.

METHODS

SLHCC patients who underwent LR in two tertiary hepatobiliary centers between 2000 and 2021 were retrieved from prospectively maintained databases. The quality of surgical care was measured by the textbook outcome (TO). Tumor burden was defined by the tumor burden score (TBS). Factors associated with TO were determined on multivariate analysis. The impact of TO on oncological outcomes was assessed using Cox regressions.

RESULTS

Overall, 103 SLHCC patients were included. Laparoscopic approach was considered in 65 (63.1%) patients and 79 (76.7%) patients presented with moderate TBS. TO was achieved in 54 (52.4%) patients. Laparoscopic approach was independently associated with TO (OR 2.57; 95% CI 1.03-6.64; p = 0.045). Within 19 (6-38) months of median follow up, patients who achieved TO had better OS compared to non-TO patients (1-year OS: 91.7% vs. 66.9%; 5-year OS: 83.4% vs. 37.0%, p < 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, TO was independently associated with improved OS, especially in non-cirrhotic patients (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.02-0.52, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

TO achievement could be a relevant surrogate marker of improved oncological care following SLHCC resection in non-cirrhotic patients.

Surgical resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria: prognostic role of tumor burden score

Tumor burden score (TBS) has been recently introduced to indicate the extent of tumor burden in different cancers, but its role in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We aimed to determine the prognostic role of TBS in patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria receiving surgical resection (SR) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed HCC patients beyond Milan criteria receiving SR or TACE as the primary therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were examined by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. SR was associated with better overall survival compared with TACE in these patients. Multivariate Cox analysis of the entire cohort revealed that age > 66 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.145, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.004-1.305, p = 0.043), serum α-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL (HR: 1.602, 95% CI: 1.402-1.831, p < 0.001), performance status 2-4 (HR: 1.316, 95% CI: 1.115-1.553, p < 0.001), medium TBS (HR: 1.225, 95% CI:1.045-1.436, p = 0.012), high TBS (HR: 1.976, 95% CI: 1.637-2.384, p < 0.001), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2-3 (HR: 1.529, 95% CI: 1.342-1.743, p < 0.001), presence of vascular invasion (HR: 1.568, 95% CI: 1.354-1.816, p < 0.001), and TACE (HR: 2.396, 95% CI: 2.082-2.759, p < 0.001) were linked with decreased survival. SR consistently predicted a significantly better survival in different TBS subgroups. TBS is a feasible and independent prognostic predictor in HCC beyond the Milan criteria. SR provides better long-term outcome compared with TACE in these patients independent of TBS grade, and should be considered as the primary treatment modality in this special patient group.

Single-cell RNA-seq and bulk RNA-seq explore the prognostic value of exhausted T cells in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a worldwide health problem. Mounting evidence indicates that exhausted T cells play a critical role in the progress and treatment of HCC. Therefore, a detailed characterisation of exhausted T cells and their clinical significance warrants further investigation in HCC. Based on the GSE146115, we presented a comprehensive single-cell Atlas in HCC. Pseudo-time analysis revealed that tumour heterogeneity progressively increased, and the exhausted T cells gradually appeared during tumour progression. Functional enrichment analysis revealed that the evolutionary process of exhausted T cells mainly contained the pathway of cadherin binding, proteasome, cell cycle, and T cell receptor regulation of apoptosis. In the International Cancer Genome Consortium database, we divided patients into three clusters with the T cell evolution-associated genes. We found that the exhausted T cells are significantly related to poor outcomes through immunity and survival analysis. In The Cancer Genome Atlas database, the authors enrolled weighted gene co-expression network analysis, univariate Cox analysis, and Lasso Cox analysis, then screened the 19 core genes in T cells evolution and built a robust prognostic model. This study offers a fresh view on evaluating the patients' outcomes from an exhausted T cells perspective and might help clinicians develop therapeutic systems.

Tumor burden score-AFP-albumin-bilirubin grade score predicts the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

PURPOSE

There is little information regarding the overall survival (OS) predictive ability of the combination of tumor burden score (TBS), α-fetoprotein (AFP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, we aimed to develop a model including TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade to predict HCC patient OS following liver resection.

METHODS

Patients (N = 1556) from six centers were randomly divided 1:1 into training and validation sets. The X-Tile software was used to determine the optimal cutoff values. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated to assess the prognostic ability of the different models.

RESULTS

In the training set, tumor differentiation, TBS, AFP, ALBI grade, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were independently related to OS. According to the coefficient values of TBS, AFP, and ALBI grade, we developed the TBS-AFP-ALBI (TAA) score using a simplified point system (0, 2 for low/high TBS, 0, 1 for low/high AFP and 0,1 for ALBI grade 1/2). Patients were further divided into low TAA (TAA ≤ 1), medium TAA (TAA = 2-3), and high TAA (TAA= 4) groups. TAA scores (low: referent; medium, HR = 1.994, 95% CI = 1.492-2.666; high, HR = 2.413, 95% CI = 1.630-3.573) were independently associated with patient survival in the validation set. The TAA scores showed higher AUROCs than BCLC stage for the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

TAA is a simple score that has better OS prediction performance than the BCLC stage in predicting OS for HCC patients after liver resection.

Time to surgery is not an oncological risk factor in HCC patients undergoing liver resection

PURPOSE

Given limitations of the health care systems in case of unforeseeable events, e.g., the COVID pandemic as well as trends in prehabilitation, time from diagnosis to surgery (time to surgery, (TTS)) has become a research issue in malignancies. Thus, we investigated whether TTS is associated with oncological outcome in HCC patients undergoing surgery.

METHODS

A monocentric cohort of 217 patients undergoing liver resection for HCC between 2009 and 2021 was analyzed. Individuals were grouped according to TTS and compared regarding clinical characteristics. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and investigated by univariate and multivariable Cox regressions.

RESULTS

TTS was not associated with OS (p=0.126) or RFS (p=0.761) of the study cohort in univariate analysis. In multivariable analysis age (p=0.028), ASA (p=0.027), INR (0.016), number of HCC nodules (p=0.026), microvascular invasion (MVI; p<0.001), and postoperative complications (p<0.001) were associated with OS and INR (p=0.005), and number of HCC nodules (p<0.001) and MVI (p<0.001) were associated with RFS. A comparative analysis of TTS subgroups was conducted (group 1, ≤30 days, n=55; group 2, 31-60 days, n=79; group 3, 61-90 days, n=45; group 4, >90 days, n=38). Here, the median OS were 62, 41, 38, and 40 months (p=0.602 log rank) and median RFS were 21, 26, 26, and 25 months (p=0.994 log rank). No statistical difference regarding oncological risk factors were observed between these groups.

CONCLUSION

TTS is not associated with earlier tumor recurrence or reduced overall survival in surgically treated HCC patients.

Development and Validation of an α-Fetoprotein Tumor Burden Score Model to Predict Postrecurrence Survival among Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to establish a prognostic model to predict postrecurrence survival (PRS) probability after initial resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

STUDY DESIGN

Patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection were identified through a multicenter consortium (training cohort, TC); data were from a separate institution were used as validation cohort (VC). The α-fetoprotein (AFP) tumor burden score (ATS) was defined as the distance from the origin on a 3-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system that incorporated 3 variables: largest tumor diameter ( x axis), number of tumors ( y axis), and ln AFP ( z axis). ATS was calculated using the Pythagorean theorem: ATS 2 = (largest tumor diameter) 2 + (number of tumors) 2 + (ln AFP) 2 , where ATS d and ATS r represent ATS at the time of initial diagnosis and at the time of recurrence, respectively. The final model was ATS m = ATS d + 4 × ATS r . Predictive performance and discrimination of the ATS model were evaluated and compared with traditional staging systems.

RESULTS

The ATS model demonstrated strong predictive performance of PRS in both the TC (area under the curve [AUC] 0.70) and VC (AUC 0.71). An ATS-based nomogram was able to stratify patients accurately into low- and high-risk categories relative to PRS (TC: ATS m ≤ 27, 74.9 months vs. ATS m ≥ 28, 23.3 months; VC: ATS m ≤ 27, 59.4 months vs. ATS m ≥ 28, 15.1 months; both p < 0.001). The ATS model predicted PRS among patients undergoing curative or noncurative treatment of HCC recurrence (both p < 0.05). Of note, the ATS model outperformed the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), China Liver Cancer (CNLC), and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems relative to 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year PRS (AUC 0.70, vs. BCLC, AUC 0.50, vs. CNLC, AUC 0.54, vs. AJCC, AUC 0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

The ATS model had excellent prognostic discriminatory power to stratify patients relative to PRS.

Radiographic tumor burden score is useful for stratifying the overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing resection at different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages

PURPOSE

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been recommended for prognostic prediction. However, prognosis is variable at different BCLC stages. We aimed to evaluate whether the radiographic tumor burden score (TBS) could be used to stratify prognosis in different BCLC stages.

METHODS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver resection (LR) at BCLC-0, -A, or -B stage in our institution in 2007-2018 were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed according to the TBS and BCLC stage. TBS cutoff values for OS were determined with X-tile.

RESULTS

Of the 749 patients in the derivation cohort, 138 (18.4%) had BCLC-0, 542 (72.3%) BCLC-A, and 69 (9.2%) BCLC-B HCC; 76 (10.1%) had a high TBS (> 7.9), 477 (63.7%) a medium TBS (2.6-7.9), and 196 (26.2%) a low TBS (< 2.6). OS worsened progressively with increasing TBS in the cohort (p < 0.001) and in BCLC-A (p = 0.04) and BCLC-B (p = 0.002) stages. Multivariate analysis showed that the TBS was associated with OS of patients with BCLC-A (medium vs. low TBS: hazard ratio [HR] = 2.390, 95% CI = 1.024-5.581, p = 0.04; high vs. low TBS: HR = 3.885, 95% CI = 1.443-10.456, p = 0.007) and BCLC-B (high vs. medium TBS: HR = 2.542, 95% CI = 1.077-6.002, p = 0.033) HCC. The TBS could also be used to stratify the OS of patients in the validation cohort (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The TBS could be used to stratify the OS of the entire cohort and BCLC stages A and B of HCC patients undergoing LR.

Resected Tumor Outcome and Recurrence (RESTORE) Index for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Resection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related death worldwide [...].

Tumor burden in patients with early and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection: a retrospective multicenter study on clinical and oncological outcomes

BACKGROUND

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, liver resection (LR) is recommended for early-stage (BCLC-A) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but not for intermediate-stage (BCLC-B). This study aimed to assess the outcomes of LR in these patients using a subclassification tumour burden score (TBS).

METHODS

All consecutive patients that underwent LR for BCLC-A and BCLC-B HCC between 01/2010 and 12/2020 in 4 tertiary referral centers were included. Clinical outcomes and overall survival (OS) were assessed in relation to TBS and BCLC stages.

RESULTS

Among 612 patients included, 562 were classified as BCLC-A and 50 as BCLC-B. The incidence of overall postoperative complications (56.0 vs 41.5%, p = 0.053) and mortality (0 vs 1.6%, p = 1.000) were similar between BCLC-A and BCLC-B patients. OS was significantly higher for BCLC A/low TBS than BCLC B/low TBS (p = 0.009), while patients with medium and high TBS had similar OS, irrespective of BCLC stage (respectively p = 0.103 and p = 0.343).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with medium and high TBS had comparable OS and DFS, irrespective of BCLC A or B stage, and postoperative morbidity was comparable. These results highlight the need for refinement of the BCLC staging system, and LR could be considered for selected intermediate stage (BCLC-B) according to the tumour burden.

Combined Tumor Burden Score and Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 Grading System to Predict Outcomes Among Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The interplay of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and tumor burden score (TBS) within intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma remains ill-defined. We evaluated the roles of TBS and CA19-9 relative to overall survival (OS) and recurrence, as well as the predictive ability of the combined TBS and CA19-9 (CTC) grading system.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients undergoing liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between 2000 and 2020 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The impact of CA19-9 and TBS on 5-year OS and 3-year recurrence was assessed, along with the prognostic accuracy of the CTC grading system (ie the composite score of CA19-9 level and TBS).

RESULTS

Among 831 patients, the median age was 58.2 years and 482 (58.0%) were male. The median [IQR] CA19-9 level was 49.7 [17.0, 221.0] U/mL and TBS was 6.1 [4.1, 8.3]. Median [IQR] and 5-year OS were 36.9 [32.3, 43.1] months and 38.9%, respectively; 3-year recurrence was 68.9%. Five-year survival varied relative to CA19-9 (low vs high, 49.0% vs 19.7%) and TBS (low vs high, 53.6% vs 26.9%) (p < 0.001 for both). On multivariable analysis, high CA19-9 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02, 95% CI 1.64 to 2.49) and high TBS (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.06) remained independently associated with OS. In turn, the CTC grading score stratified 5-year OS (low vs intermediate vs high CTC, 57.7% vs 39.9% vs 12.6%; p < 0.001) and remained an independent prognostic factor (referent, low CTC; [intermediate CTC] HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.01; [high CTC] HR 3.28, 95% CI 2.47 to 4.36).

CONCLUSIONS

The interplay between tumor morphology and biology dictates long-term prognosis after liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Prognostic models such as the CTC grading system may inform discussions around prognosis, as well as help identify which patients with ICC may benefit more from neoadjuvant chemotherapy rather than up-front surgery.

Survival Benefit of Experience of Liver Resection for Advanced Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Sorafenib: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Several studies have shown that liver resection (LR) confers better survival outcomes in intermediate- and advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, the postoperative recurrence rate is high, and little is known about the survival benefits of LR for recurrent HCC patients who have already received systemic treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of LR on recurrent advanced-stage HCC patients who received sorafenib as a systemic treatment. In this study, 147 advanced HCC patients were enrolled between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2019. Two study groups were classified, based on whether they underwent LR or not. To reduce the possible selection bias, a propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed. The primary study endpoint was set as overall survival (OS), and the secondary endpoint was set as progression-free survival (PFS). Our study results revealed that advanced HCC patients who received sorafenib with LR had a longer OS than did those without LR, whether before or after PSM (15.0 months vs. 6.0 months, HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31–0.67, p < 0.001; 15.0 months vs. 5.0 months, HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28–0.76, p = 0.001). Similar results were obtained in PFS, before or after PSM (4.14 months vs. 2.60 months, HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.40–0.89, p = 0.01; 4.57 months vs. 2.63 months, HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34–0.97, p = 0.037). Multivariate analysis showed that the experience of LR was independent of other factors associated with better OS and PFS, whether before or after PSM (p < 0.05). Therefore, advanced HCC patients who have undergone liver resection should be encouraged to continue sorafenib treatment to improve prognosis.

TAC score better predicts survival than the BCLC following resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still exists within the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) subcategories. We developed a simple model to better discriminate and predict prognosis following resection.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Predictive factors of survival were identified to develop TAC (tumor burden score [TBS], alpha-fetoprotein [AFP], Child-Pugh CP]) score.

RESULTS

Among 1435 patients, median TBS was 5.1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 3.2-8.1), median AFP was 18.3 ng/ml (IQR 4.0-362.5), and 1391 (96.9%) patients were classified as CP-A. Factors associated with overall survival (OS) included TBS (low: referent; medium: HR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.73-2.96; high: HR = 3.35, 95% CI: 2.22-5.07), AFP (<400 ng/ml: referent; >400 ng/ml: HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.27-1.92), and CP (A: referent; B: HR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.12-2.92) (all p < 0.05). A simplified risk score demonstrated superior concordance index, Akaike information criteria, homogeneity, and area under the curve versus BCLC (0.620 vs. 0.541; 5484.655 vs. 5536.454; 60.099 vs. 16.194; 0.62 vs. 0.55, respectively), and further stratified patients within BCLC groups relative to OS (BCLC 0, very low: 86.8%, low: 47.8%) (BCLC A, very low: 79.7%, low: 68.1%, medium: 52.5%, high: 35.6%) (BCLC B, low: 59.8%, medium: 43.7%, high: N/A).

CONCLUSION

TAC is a simple, holistic score that consistently outperformed BCLC relative to discrimination power and prognostication following resection of HCC.

Preoperative risk score (PreopScore) to predict overall survival after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a holistic risk score incorporating preoperative tumor, liver, nutritional, and inflammatory markers to predict overall survival (OS) after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified using an international multi-institutional database. Preoperative predictors associated with OS were selected and a prognostic risk score model (PreopScore) was developed and validated using cross-validation.

RESULTS

A total of 1676 patients were included. On multivariable analysis, preoperative parameters associated with OS included α-feto protein (hazard ratio [HR]1.17, 95%CI 1.03-1.34), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (HR2.62, 95%CI 1.30-5.30), albumin (HR0.49, 95%CI 0.34-0.70), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (HR1.00, 95%CI 1.00-1.00), as well as vascular involvement (HR3.52, 95%CI 2.10-5.89) and tumor burden score (medium, HR3.49, 95%CI 1.62-7.58; high, HR3.21, 95%CI 1.40-7.35) on preoperative imaging. A weighted PreopScore was devised and made available online (https://yutaka-endo.shinyapps.io/PrepoScore_Shiny/). Patients with a PreopScore 0-2, 2-3.5, and >3.5 had incrementally worse 5-year OS of 85.8%, 70.7%, and 52.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). The c-index of the test and validation cohort were 0.75 and 0.71, respectively. The PreopScore outperformed individual parameters and previous HCC staging systems.

DISCUSSION

The PreopScore can be used as a better guide to preoperatively identify patients and individualize pre-/post-operative strategies.

TBS-Based Preoperative Score to Predict Non-transplantable Recurrence and Identify Candidates for Upfront Resection Versus Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Recurrence following liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be as high as 50-70%. While salvage liver transplantation may be feasible, patients may develop a non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) (recurrence beyond Milan criteria). We sought to identify preoperative risk factors to predict NTR after resection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent LR for HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Preoperative factors associated with NTR were identified and a risk score model (NTR score) was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 1620 patients, 842 (52.0%) developed recurrence; among patients with recurrence, NTR occurred in 341 (40.5%) with a median recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 30 months (24.7-35.3 months). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with NTR included alpha fetoprotein (AFP) > 400 ng/mL [hazard ratio (HR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.19], albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) (referent low, medium ALBI: HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.10-1.81, high ALBI: HR 2.47, 95% CI 0.91-6.68), and tumor burden score (TBS) (referent low, high TBS: HR 2.55, 95% CI, 1.99-3.28). A simplified TBS-based NTR score was developed using the β-coefficients of each factor (C-index 0.68, 95% CI 0.65-0.71). Higher NTR score was associated with incrementally worse 5-year RFS (low 44.8%, medium 37.5%, high 24.5%) [area under the curve (AUC) 0.59] and increased incidence of NTR (low 13.7%, medium 25.4%, high 38.2%) (AUC 0.65) (both p < 0.001). Moreover, higher NTR score was associated with higher risk of extrahepatic recurrence (low 11.3%, medium 28.8%, high 37.5%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

NTR following curative-intent resection of HCC occurred in one in five patients. A simple TBS-based NTR score accurately predicted the risk of NTR and may help identify candidates for upfront resection versus transplantation.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Combined with Radiographic Tumor Burden Score to Predict Overall Survival after Liver Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

We evaluated whether combining the radiographic tumor burden score (TBS) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level could be used to stratify overall survival (OS) among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver resection (LR). Patients who underwent LR for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0, A, or B HCC between 2011 and 2018 were enrolled. TBS scores were calculated using the following equation: TBS² = (largest tumor size (in cm))² + (tumor number)². Among 743 patients, 193 (26.0%) patients had a low TBS (<2.6), 474 (63.8%) had a moderate TBS (2.6-7.9), and 75 (10.1%) had a high TBS (>7.9). Those with a TBS ≤ 7.9 and AFP < 400 ng/mL had a significantly better OS than those with a TBS > 7.9 and an AFP < 400 ng/mL (p = 0.003) or ≥ 400 ng/mL (p < 0.001). A multivariate analysis using TBS ≤ 7.9 and AFP < 400 ng/mL as the reference values showed that a TBS > 7.9 and an AFP < 400 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR): 2.063; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.175-3.623; p = 0.012) or ≥ 400 ng/mL (HR: 6.570; 95% CI: 3.684-11.719; p < 0.001) were independent predictors of OS. In conclusion, combining radiographic TBSs and AFP levels could stratify OS among HCC patients undergoing LR.

Application of hazard functions to investigate recurrence after curative-intent resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Defining patterns and risk of recurrence can help inform surveillance strategies and patient counselling. We sought to characterize peak hazard rates (pHR) and peak time of recurrence among patients who underwent resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

1434 patients who underwent curative-intent resection of HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Hazard, patterns, and peak rates of recurrence were characterized.

RESULTS

The overall hazard of recurrence peaked at 2.4 months (pHR: 0.0384), yet varied markedly. The incidence of recurrence increased with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 (29%), A (54%), and B (64%). While the hazard function curve for BCLC 0 patients was relatively flat (pHR: <0.0177), BCLC A patients recurred with a peak at 2.4 months (pHR: 0.0365). Patients with BCLC B had a bimodal recurrence with a peak rate at 4.2 months (pHR: 0.0565) and another at 22.8 months. The incidence of recurrence also varied according to AFP level (≤400 ng/mL: 52.6% vs. >400 ng/mL: 36.3%) and Tumor Burden Score (low: 73.7% vs. medium: 50.6% vs. high: 24.2%) (both p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Recurrence hazard rates for HCC varied substantially relative to both time and intensity/peak rates. TBS and AFP markedly impacted patterns of hazard risk of recurrence.

Variations in Textbook Oncologic Outcomes After Curative-Intent Resection: Early Versus Intermediate Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Criteria and Child-Pugh Classification

BACKGROUND

The impact of early versus intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on short-term "optimal" outcomes remains ill-defined. This study sought to define the incidence of textbook oncologic outcomes (TOO), as well as to identify factors associated with TOO among patients with early versus intermediate HCC.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent liver resection for HCC (1998-2020) were identified from a multi-institutional database. Textbook oncologic outcome (TOO) was defined as negative surgical margins, no return to the operating room, no extended hospital stay, no severe complications, and no 90-day mortality or readmission. Patients were stratified as early HCC (BCLC 0 or BCLC A/Child-Pugh A) or intermediate HCC (BCLC A/Child-Pugh B or BCLC B). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with TOO.

RESULTS

Among 1383 patients, the overall incidence of TOO was 69.0%. Patients with intermediate HCC were less likely to achieve a TOO (early [71.6 %] vs. intermediate [60.1%]; p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, factors associated with decreased odds of a TOO were high tumor burden (odds ratio [OR], 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-1.00), high aspartate transaminase-platelet ratio index (APRI) (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30-0.70), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) greater than 3 (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49-0.91), major liver resection (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.52-0.90), and intermediate HCC (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93) (all p < 0.05). Notably, although high APRI, CCI greater than 3, and major liver resection contributed to lower odds of a TOO in early HCC, the only factor that adversely impacted TOO in intermediate HCC was high tumor burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with intermediate HCC and early HCC patients with liver dysfunction, comorbidities, or an extensive resection were less likely to achieve an "optimal" postoperative outcome.

Prediction of early treatment response to the combination therapy of TACE plus lenvatinib and anti-PD-1 antibody immunotherapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: Multicenter retrospective study

Background and aim

The purpose of this study was to investigate and validate the efficacy of a nomogram model in predicting early objective response rate (ORR) in u-HCC patients receiving a combination of TACE, Lenvatinib, and anti-PD-1 antibody treatment after 3 months (triple therapy).

Method

This study included 169 u-HCC cases from five different hospitals. As training cohorts (n = 102), cases from two major centers were used, and external validation cohorts (n = 67) were drawn from the other three centers. The clinical data and contrast-enhanced MRI characteristics of patients were included in this retrospective study. For evaluating MRI treatment responses, the modified revaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select relevant variables and develop a nomogram model. Our as-constructed nomogram was highly consistent and clinically useful, as confirmed by the calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA); an independent external cohort also calibrated the nomogram.

Results

The ORR was 60.7% and the risk of early ORR was independently predicted by AFP, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), tumor number, and size in both the training (C-index = 0.853) and test (C-index = 0.731) cohorts. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram-predicted values were consistent with the actual response rates in both cohorts. Furthermore, DCA indicated that our developed nomogram performed well in clinical settings.

Conclusion

The nomogram model accurately predicts early ORR achieved by triple therapy in u-HCC patients, which aids in individual decision-making and modifying additional therapies for u-HCC cases.

External validation and improvement of the scoring system for predicting the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma after interventional therapy

Background

Currently, locoregional therapies, such as transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and ablation, play an important role in the treatment of Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, an easy-to-use scoring system that predicts recurrence to guide individualized management of HCC with varying risks of recurrence remains an unmet need.

Methods

A total of 483 eligible HCC patients treated by TACE combined with ablation from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, were included in the temporal external validation cohort and then used to explore possibilities for refinement of the original scoring system. We investigated the prognostic value of baseline variables on recurrence-free survival (RFS) using a Cox model and developed the easily applicable YA score. The performances of the original scoring system and YA score were assessed according to discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] and Harrell's concordance index [C-statistic]), calibration (calibration curves), and clinical utility [decision curve analysis (DCA) curves]. Finally, improvement in the ability to predict in the different scoring systems was assessed using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI). The YA score was lastly compared with other prognostic scores.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 35.6 months, 292 patients experienced recurrence. In the validation cohort, the original scoring system exhibited high discrimination (C-statistic: 0.695) and calibration for predicting the prognosis in HCC. To improve the prediction performance, the independent predictors of RFS, including gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP), tumor number, tumor size, albumin-to-prealbumin ratio (APR), and fibrinogen, were incorporated into the YA score, an improved score. Compared to the original scoring system, the YA score has better discrimination (c-statistic: 0.712VS0.695), with outstanding calibration and the clinical net benefit, both in the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, the YA score accurately stratified patients with HCC into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups of recurrence and mortality and outperformed other prognostic scores.

Conclusion

YA score is associated with recurrence and survival in early- and middle-stage HCC patients receiving local treatment. Such score would be valuable in guiding the monitoring of follow-up and the design of adjuvant treatment trials, providing highly informative data for clinical management decisions.

Selecting the Best Approach for the Treatment of Multiple Non-Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, the optimal strategy for patients with multiple HCC within the Milan Criteria is liver transplantation (LT). However, LT cannot be offered to all the patients due to organ shortages and long waiting lists, as well as because of the advanced disease carrying a high risk of poor outcomes. For early stages, liver resection (LR) or thermal ablation (TA) can be proposed, while trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) still remains the treatment of choice for intermediate stages (BCLC-B). Asian guidelines and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network suggest LR for resectable multinodular HCCs, even beyond Milan criteria. In this scenario, a growing body of evidence shows better outcomes after surgical resection when compared with TACE. Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) and stereotaxic body radiation therapy (SBRT) can also play an important role in this setting. Furthermore, the role of minimally invasive liver surgery (MILS) specifically for patients with multiple HCC is still not clear. This review aims to summarize current knowledge about the best therapeutical strategy for multiple HCC while focusing on the role of minimally invasive surgery and on the most attractive future perspectives.

A comprehensive preoperative predictive score for post-hepatectomy liver failure after hepatocellular carcinoma resection based on patient comorbidities, tumor burden, and liver function: the CTF score

BACKGROUND

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a dreaded complication following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high mortality rate. We sought to develop a score based on preoperative factors to predict PHLF.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Factors associated with PHLF were identified and used to develop a preoperative comorbidity-tumor burden-liver function (CTF) predictive score.

RESULTS

Among 1785 patients, 106 (5.9%) experienced PHLF. On multivariate analysis, several factors were associated with PHLF including high Charlson comorbidity index (CCI ≥ 5) (OR 2.80, 95%CI, 1.08-7.26), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) (OR 1.99, 95%CI, 1.10-3.56), and tumor burden score (TBS) (OR 1.06, 95%CI, 1.02-1.11) (all p < 0.05). Using the beta-coefficients of these variables, a weighted predictive score was developed and made available online ( https://alaimolaura.shinyapps.io/PHLFriskCalculator/ ). The CTF score (c-index = 0.67) performed better than Child-Pugh score (CPS) (c-index = 0.53) or Barcelona clinic liver cancer system (BCLC) (c-index = 0.57) to predict PHLF. A high CTF score was also an independent adverse prognostic factor for survival (HR 1.61, 95%CI, 1.12-2.30) and recurrence (HR 1.36, 95%CI, 1.08-1.71) (both p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Roughly 1 in 20 patients experienced PHLF following resection of HCC. Patient (i.e., CCI), tumor (i.e., TBS), and liver function (i.e., ALBI) factors were associated with risk of PHLF. These preoperative factors were incorporated into a novel CTF tool that was made available online, which outperformed other previously proposed tools.

Tumor Burden Score and Serum Alpha-fetoprotein Subclassify Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Resection of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. While not recommended by the BCLC algorithm, some patients may indeed benefit from hepatectomy. We sought to identify that subset of patients who might derive long-term survival benefit from resection.

METHODS

Intermediate-stage HCC patients who underwent curative-intent resection were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Factors associated with long-term prognosis were identified using multivariate analysis and a risk score was developed and assessed.

RESULTS

Among 194 patients, most individuals had two tumors (n = 123, 63.4%) with a median size of 6.0 cm (IQR, 4.0-8.4) for a median tumor burden score (TBS) of 6.5 (IQR, 5.0-9.1); median alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was 23.9 ng/mL (IQR, 5.0-503.2), and median overall survival (OS) was 69 months (IAR, 60.7-77.3). Factors associated with OS included AFP (referent ≤ 20 ng/mL, > 20 ng/mL: HR 1.78 95%CI, 1.09-2.89) and TBS (referent TBS ≤ 8.0, TBS > 8.0: HR 1.72 95%CI, 1.07-2.75). While 71 (36.6%) patients had neither risk factor, 79 (40.7%) and 44 (22.7%) had 1 or 2, respectively. A simplified score stratified patients relative to recurrence-free survival (RFS) (0: 33.6% vs. 1: 18.0% vs. 2: 14.7%) (AUC 0.60) and recurrence time (i.e., < 6 months after surgery) (0: 21.3% vs. 1: 43.1% vs. 2: 68.6%) (AUC 0.69) (both p < 0.001). Of note, a higher score was also associated with incrementally worse 5-year OS (0: 68.1% vs. 1: 61.0% vs. 2: 29.9%) (AUC 0.62) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Long-term OS and RFS outcomes varied considerably. Using a simple risk score, patients with low AFP and low TBS were identified as the subset of individuals most likely to benefit from resection.

Identification and verification of a novel epigenetic-related gene signature for predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Epigenetic dysregulation is now considered to be related to hepatocarcinogenesis. However, it is unclear how epigenetic-related genes (ERGs) contribute to the prognosis of HCC. In this study, we used the TCGA database to identify prognostic ERGs that were differentially expressed in HCC patients. Then, using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, a six-gene signature was constructed, and patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Validation was performed on HCC patients from the ICGC database. Patients in the high-risk group had a significantly lower chance of survival than those in the low-risk group (p &lt; 0.001 in both databases). The predictive ability of the signature was determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The risk score was then shown to be an independent prognostic factor for the overall survival (OS) of HCC patients based on the results of univariate and multivariate analyses. We also created a practical nomogram combining the prognostic model with other clinical features. Moreover, functional enrichment analysis revealed that these genes are linked to tumor immunity. In conclusion, our findings showed that a novel six-gene signature related to epigenetics can accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of HCC.

Postoperative outcomes and recurrence patterns of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma dictated by the sum of tumor size and number

BACKGROUND

The selection criteria for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who would truly benefit from liver resection (LR) remain undefined.

AIM

To identify BCLC-B HCC patients more suitable for LR.

METHODS

We included patients undergoing curative LR for BCLC stage A or B multi-nodular HCC (MNHCC) and stratified BCLC-B patients by the sum of tumor size and number (N + S). Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), recur-rence-to-death survival (RTDS), recurrence patterns, and treatments after recurrence in BCLC-B patients in each subgroup were compared with those in BCLC-A patients.

RESULTS

In total, 143 patients who underwent curative LR for MNHCC with BCLC-A (n = 25) or BCLC-B (n = 118) were retrospectively analyzed. According to the N + S, patients with BCLC-B HCC were divided into two subgroups: BCLC-B1 (N + S ≤ 10, n = 83) and BCLC-B2 (N + S > 10, n = 35). Compared with BCLC-B2 patients, those with BCLC-B1 had a better OS (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 33.6%; P < 0.001), which was comparable to that in BCLC-A patients (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 74.1%; P = 0.250), and a better RFS (median RFS: 19 mo vs 7 mo; P < 0.001), which was worse than that in BCLC-A patients (median RFS: 19 mo vs 48 mo; P = 0.022). Further analysis of patients who developed recurrence showed that both BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients had better RTDS (median RTDS: Not reached vs 49 mo; P = 0.599), while the RTDS in BCLC-B2 patients was worse (median RTDS: 16 mo vs not reached, P < 0.001; 16 mo vs 49 mo, P = 0.042). The recurrence patterns were similar between BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients, but BCLC-B2 patients had a shorter recurrence time and a higher proportion of patients had recurrence with macrovascular invasion and/or extrahepatic metastasis, both of which were independent risk factors for RTDS.

CONCLUSION

BCLC-B HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy with N + S ≤ 10 had mild recurrence patterns and excellent OS similar to those in BCLC-A MNHCC patients, and LR should be considered in these patients.

Individualized Approach in the Surgical Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Results from a Greek Multicentre Study

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer with expected increasing frequency in the next few decades. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) Staging System is a widely adopted tool for guiding the therapeutic algorithms of patients with HCC. This classification has been guiding clinical practice for the last two decades. However, emerging data demonstrate that patients beyond the traditional criteria of operability or resectability can benefit from surgical treatment. We present the Greek multicentre experience of treating HCC within and beyond BCLC guidelines.

Abstract

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and the third leading cause of death worldwide. The management of HCC is complex, with surgical treatment providing long-term survival in eligible patients. This study aims to present the experience of aggressive surgical management of HCC in Greece. Methods: This is a retrospective multicentre clinical study with 242 patients. Results: Most patients were male (79%) and had a median age of 71 yrs. According to the most recent BCLC criteria, 172 patients (71.1%) were classified as BCLC 0-A stage, 33 patients (13.6%) were classified as BCLC B, and 37 (15.3%) were classified as BCLC C. A total of 54% of the patients underwent major hepatectomy. Major postoperative morbidity was 15.6%, and the 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 4.5%. The median follow-up was 33.5 months. Three- and five-year overall survival was 65% and 48%, respectively. The median overall survival was 55 months. Significantly, five-year survival was 55% for BCLC A, and 34% and 21% for BCLC B and C, respectively. In univariate analysis, cirrhosis, type of resection (R status), and BCLC stage were associated with overall survival. Multivariate analysis indicated that R1 and R2 resections compared to R0, and BCLC C compared to BCLC 0-A, were independently associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: Aggressive surgical treatment of HCC offers satisfactory long-term survival prospects. A significant percentage (29%) of HCCs that underwent liver resection were of the intermediate and advanced BCLC stage. The management of patients with HCC should be discussed in multidisciplinary tumour board meetings on a case-by-case basis to be more effective.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic surrogate in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation: role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade vs easy ALBI grade

INTRODUCTION

Tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to represent tumor burden in solid tumors, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic role of TBS in HCC patients in relation to recently introduced liver reserve markers, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade, is unclear. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of TBS in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 576 treatment-naïve patients with HCC undergoing RFA were analyzed. The multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with tumor recurrence and long-term survival.

RESULTS

Patients with high TBS had increased risk of tumor recurrence and mortality compared with those with low TBS. The Cox analysis showed that serum ɑ-fetoprotein (AFP) level >20 ng/mL, medium and high TBS, ALBI grade 2 and grade 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and grade 3 were associated with tumor recurrence and decreased patient survival (all p <0.05). In addition, TBS can reliably stratify tumor recurrence and overall survival in different ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade groups.

CONCLUSIONS

TBS is a simple and feasible prognostic surrogate to predict tumor recurrence and survival in HCC patients undergoing RFA. Its prognostic ability remains stable in patients with variable liver functional reserve.

Radiofrequency Ablation versus Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria: Prognostic Role of Tumor Burden Score

Tumor burden score (TBS), estimated by the diameter and number of tumor nodules, was recently proposed to assess the tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic impact of TBS on HCC patients within the Milan criteria undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). A total of 883 patients undergoing RFA and TACE were included. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors in different patient cohorts. The TACE group had significantly higher TBS compared with the RFA group. The RFA group had better long-term survival than the TACE group in patients within the Milan criteria in univariate survival analysis. In the Cox model, serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, performance status 1−2, medium and high TBS, albumin−bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 and grade 3 were independent predictors linked with mortality (all p < 0.001). Overall, TACE was not an independent predictor; among patients with low TBS, TACE was independently associated with decreased survival compared with RFA (p = 0.034). Conclusions: TBS is a feasible prognostic marker for HCC patients within the Milan criteria. TACE may be an effective treatment alternative for these patients. Among patients with low TBS, RFA should be considered the priority treatment modality.

Impact of tumor burden score on timing and patterns of recurrence after curative-intent resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The ability to predict the incidence, timing, and site of recurrence can be beneficial to select surgical candidates and inform appropriate postoperative surveillance. We sought to identify factors associated with risk and timing of recurrence after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma based on differences in tumor burden score.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative-intent liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The incidence, timing, and pattern of recurrence was examined relative to traditional clinicopathological factors, as well as tumor burden score using hazard rates and multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Among 1,994 patients (tumor burden score, low: n = 511, 25.6% vs medium: n = 1,286, 64.5% vs high: n = 197, 9.9%), the incidence of recurrence at 5 years was 50.4% (95% confidence interval 47.9-53.0); risk of recurrence varied relative to hepatocellular carcinoma tumor burden score (low: 36.0% vs medium: 54.4% vs high: 62.5%, P < .001). Although intrahepatic recurrence was much more common in low tumor burden score (low: n = 106, 84.1% vs medium: n = 335, 71.7% vs high: n = 48, 56.5%; P < .001), extrahepatic recurrence was more common in high tumor burden score (low: n = 18, 14.3% vs medium: n = 121, 25.9% vs high: n = 37, 43.5%; P < .001). The peak hazard rate for intrahepatic recurrence among patients with a high tumor burden score was almost double the peak hazard noted among patients with a low tumor burden score (low: 0.047, 42.0 months vs medium: 0.051, 6.6 months vs high: 0.094, 15.0 months). Of note, the patients with high tumor burden score were also more likely to recur earlier (≤24 months) (low: n = 227, 44.4% vs medium: n = 686, 53.3% vs high: n = 144, 73.1%) with multiple tumors (low: n = 50, 36.5% vs medium: n = 271, 56.1% vs high: n = 52, 70.3%) and larger lesions (low: 1.8 [interquartile range 1.2-3.0] cm vs medium: 2.0 [interquartile range 1.3-3.0] cm vs high: 2.5 [interquartile range 1.6-4.4] cm) (all P < .001). On multivariable analysis, high tumor burden score remained independently associated with risk of recurrence (referent, low; medium: hazard ratio = 1.49 [95% confidence interval 1.19-1.88], P = .001; high: hazard ratio = 1.95 [95% confidence interval 1.41-2.69]; P < .001].

CONCLUSION

Tumor burden score was independently associated with higher risk of recurrence. Patients who underwent resection of high tumor burden score lesions were more likely to recur early with multiple tumors and at an extrahepatic site. Tumor burden score is an important tool in assessing risk, timing, and pattern of recurrence after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Individual and joint influence of cytokeratin 19 and microvascular invasion on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the individual and combined associations of cytokeratin 19 (CK19) and microvascular invasion (MVI) with prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Clinicopathological data on 352 patients with HCC who underwent radical resection at our hospital between January 2013 and December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into four groups: CK19(-)/MVI(-), CK19(-)/MVI(+), CK19(+)/MVI(-), and CK19(+)/MVI(+).

RESULTS

Of the 352 HCC patients, 154 (43.8%) were CK19(-)/MVI(-); 116 (33.0%), CK19(-)/MVI(+); 31 (8.8%), CK19(+)/MVI(-); and 51 (14.5%), CK19(+)/MVI(+). The disease-free survival of CK19(-)/MVI(-) patients was significantly higher than that of CK19(-)/MVI(+) patients and CK19(+)/MVI(+) patients. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CK19(+)/MVI(+) patients showed significantly lower overall survival than the other three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

CK19 expression and MVI predict poor prognosis after radical resection of HCC, and the two markers jointly contribute to poor OS. Combining CK19 and MVI may predict post-resection prognosis better than using either factor on its own.

A new model based inflammatory index and tumor burden score (TBS) to predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection

To establish a model based on inflammation index and tumor burden score (TBS) to predict recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection. A retrospective study was performed on 217 patients who diagnosed HCC underwent liver resection at Xiangya Hospital Central South University from June 1, 2017 to June 1, 2019. According to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the optimal cut-off value of inflammatory index and the TBS was determined by the Youden index. Prediction performance was compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Cox regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for the recurrence of HCC after liver resection. According to the independent risk factors of the patients, a prediction model for HCC was established based on inflammation index and tumor burden score (TBS).The prediction performance of the model was compared with single index (TBS group and NLR group) and traditional HCC stage models (TNM stage and BCLC stage). MLR = 0.39, NLR = 2.63, PLR = 134, SII = 428 and TBS = 8.06 are the optimal cut-off values. AUC of SII, PLR, NLR, MLR and TBS were 0.643, 0.642, 0.642, 0.618 and 0.724respectively. MVI (P = 0.005), satellite nodule (P = 0.017), BCLC B-C stage (P = 0.013), NLR > 2.63 (P = 0.013), TBS > 8.06 (P = 0.017) are independent risk factors for the recurrence of HCC after liver resection. According to this study, the optimal inflammatory index NLR combined with TBS was obtained. The AUC of NLR-TBS model was 0.762, not only better than NLR group (AUC = 0.630) and TBS group (AUC = 0.671), also better than traditional BCLC (AUC = 0.620) and TNM (AUC = 0.587) stage models. Interestingly, we found that NLR and TBS should be good prognostic factor for recurrence of HCC after liver resection. The NLR-TBS model based the best inflammatory index (NLR) and TBS have a better prediction performance and the prediction performance of NLR-TBS model not only better than NLR group and TBS group, but better than BCLC and TNM stage models.

Non-transplantable Recurrence After Resection for Transplantable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Implication for Upfront Treatment Choice

OBJECTIVES

To identify the preoperative risk factors for prediction of non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) after tumor resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to assist in patient selection relative to upfront liver resection (LR) versus liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative resection for transplantable HCC and chronic liver disease were identified from an international multi-institutional database. NTR was defined as recurrence beyond the Milan or UCSF criteria, and the preoperative risk factors of NTR were investigated.

RESULTS

Among 293 patients with transplantable HCC within Milan criteria and 320 within UCSF criteria, 113 (38.6%) and 131 (40.9%) patients developed tumor recurrence, respectively. Among patients who recurred, NTR was present in 32 (28.3%) patients within Milan and 35 (26.7%) within UCSF criteria. When either Milan or UCSF criteria was adopted, three preoperative risk factors including liver cirrhosis, tumor size > 3 cm, and multiple lesions were consistently identified as risk factors associated with NTR after curative resection. By summing up the three factors, a scoring model was established and the incidence of NTR among patients with 0, 1 or ≥ 2 risk factors incrementally increased from 4.5%, 13.3% to 20.5% when Milan criteria was used, and from 4.5%, 12.4% to 33.9% when UCSF criteria was adopted. The model demonstrated very good discriminatory power on internal validation (n = 5,000) (c-index 0.689 for Milan criteria, and 0.715 for UCSF criteria).

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas surgical resection may be optimal first-line treatment for patients with no or one risk factor, patients with ≥ 2 risk factors should be considered for upfront liver transplantation.