Risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

The role of Interleukin-22 in severe acute pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) begins with premature activation of enzymes, promoted by the immune system, triggering a potential systemic inflammatory response that leads to organ failure with increased mortality and a bleak prognosis. Interleukin-22 (IL-22) is a cytokine that may have a significant role in SAP. IL-22, a member of the IL-10 cytokine family, has garnered growing interest owing to its potential tissue-protective properties. Recently, emerging research has revealed its specific effects on pancreatic diseases, particularly SAP. This paper provides a review of the latest knowledge on the role of IL-22 and its viability as a therapeutic target in SAP.

A comparison of scoring systems and biomarkers to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis in patients referring to the emergency clinic

To investigate scoring systems and biomarkers for determining the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). Between January and July 2023, 100 patients with AP diagnosed and treated in the emergency department were included. AP was divided into 2 groups according to severity: mild AP and moderately severe AP (MSAP-SAP), according to the revised Atlanta Classification in 2012. Demographic characteristics, severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, white blood cell count (WBC), hematocrit, red cell distribution width from whole blood taken at admission and 48 hours later, C-reactive protein (CRP) and biochemistry values, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS), and harmless AP score scores were recorded retrospectively. Our variables, which were found to be significant in multiple logistic regression results, were found to increase MSAP-SAP expectation by 4.36-, 7.85-, 6.63 and 5.80 times in the presence of CRP > 47.10, WBC > 13.10, PASS > 0, and necrotizing computed tomography findings, respectively. It was detected that the risk factor which was found significant as a single variable affecting the ICU admission increased the risk of ICU requirement by 28.88 when PASS > 0, by 3.96 when BISAP > 1, and it increased the Atlanta score by 9.93-fold. We found that WBC and CRP values at the time of hospital admission and WBC, CRP, and red cell distribution width values after 48 had the highest accuracy in determining AP disease severity. BISAP, which was found to be significant in determining MSAP-SAP expectations, lost its significance in multiple logistic regression results, and PASS was found to be effective. The PASS is an important score in the clinical evaluation of patients with AP and in determining the need for ICU hospitalization.

Risk factors of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in patients with biliary tract diseases

BACKGROUND

To investigate the risk factors of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with biliary tract diseases.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 480 patients who underwent ERCP for biliary tract diseases at the Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital of Dalian University from October 2011 to October 2016. The patients were divided into a study group (n = 75, with PEP) and a control group (n = 405, without PEP) based on whether they developed post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP), and their clinical baseline data and intraoperative conditions were retrieved and compared. Then, factors associated with PEP were analyzed using logistic regression model, based on which a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performance of the prediction model.

RESULTS

Significant differences in age, sex, history of pancreatitis, history of choledocholithiasis, pancreatic duct imaging, pancreatic sphincterotomy, difficult cannulation, multiple cannulation attempts and juxtapapillary duodenal diverticula were observed between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age less than 60 years (OR, 0.477; 95% CI, 0.26-0.855), female sex (OR, 2.162; 95% CI, 1.220-3.831), history of pancreatitis (OR, 2.567; 95% CI, 1.218-5.410), history of choledocholithiasis (OR, 2.062; 95% CI, 1.162-3.658), pancreatic sphincterotomy (OR, 2.387; 95% CI, 1.298-4.390), pancreatic duct imaging (OR, 4.429; 95% CI, 1.481-13.242), multiple cannulation attempts (OR, 2.327; 95% CI, 1.205-4.493), difficult cannulation (OR, 2.421; 95% CI, 1.143-5.128), and JPD (OR, 2.002; 95% CI, 1.125-3.564) were independent risk factors for PEP. The nomogram for predicting the occurrence of PEP demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.787, and the calibration curves of the model showed good consistency between the predicted and actual probability of PEP.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed that age less than 60 years, female sex, history of pancreatitis, history of choledocholithiasis, pancreatic sphincterotomy, pancreatic duct imaging, multiple cannulation attempts, difficult cannulation and juxtapapillary duodenal diverticula were independent risk factors for PEP. In addition, the established nomogram demonstrated promising clinical efficacy in predicting PEP risk in patients who underwent ERCP for biliary tract diseases.

Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a major cause of death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Although a series of prediction models have been developed for early identification of such patients, the majority are complicated or lack validation. A simpler and more credible model is required for clinical practice.

AIM

To develop and validate a predictive model for SAP related ARDS.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with AP from four hospitals located at different regions of China were retrospectively grouped into derivation and validation cohorts. Statistically significant variables were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method. Predictive models with nomograms were further built using multiple logistic regression analysis with these picked predictors. The discriminatory power of new models was compared with some common models. The performance of calibration ability and clinical utility of the predictive models were evaluated.

RESULTS

Out of 597 patients with AP, 139 were diagnosed with SAP (80 in derivation cohort and 59 in validation cohort) and 99 with ARDS (62 in derivation cohort and 37 in validation cohort). Four identical variables were identified as independent risk factors for both SAP and ARDS: heart rate [odds ratio (OR) = 1.05; 95%CI: 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001; OR = 1.05, 95%CI: 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001], respiratory rate (OR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.0-1.17, P = 0.047; OR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.02-1.19, P = 0.014), serum calcium concentration (OR = 0.26, 95%CI: 0.09-0.73, P = 0.011; OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.06-0.48, P = 0.001) and blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.09-1.23, P < 0.001; OR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.05-1.19, P < 0.001). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.879 (95%CI: 0.830-0.928) and 0.898 (95%CI: 0.848-0.949) for SAP prediction in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. This value was 0.892 (95%CI: 0.843-0.941) and 0.833 (95%CI: 0.754-0.912) for ARDS prediction, respectively. The discriminatory power of our models was improved compared with that of other widely used models and the calibration ability and clinical utility of the prediction models performed adequately.

CONCLUSION

The present study constructed and validated a simple and accurate predictive model for SAP-related ARDS in patients with AP.

The Prognostic Value of Different Levels of Cortisol and High-sensitivity C-reactive Protein in Early Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) ranges in severity from mild to severe with high mortality. Severe AP, similar to other critical illnesses, is associated with changes in cortisol level. Early increase of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) as an inflammatory marker could be an indicator of AP progression. We aimed to assess the level of cortisol and hs-CRP on initial diagnosis of AP and identify their prognostic value.

METHODS

This case-control study included patients with AP and a control group of healthy subjects. Laboratory tests such as liver profile, kidney functions, blood picture, lactate dehydrogenase, blood glucose, and lipogram were evaluated, the severity of AP was determined, the duration of hospitalization, complications, and outcomes were identified, and the serum levels of cortisol and hs-CRP were assessed.

RESULTS

There were 90 patients with AP and 60 controls with a higher percent of females in both groups. Serum cortisol and hs-CRP were significantly higher in AP relative to controls and were higher in severe AP relative to mild AP. Significant positive correlation was present between high cortisol and severity of AP (r=0.520 and p<0.001) and negatively with pancreatic necrosis (r= - 0.303 and p= 0.007) and morality (r= - 0.432, p= 0.005) while hs-CRP did not show significant correlation.

CONCLUSIONS

Different levels of serum cortisol in early AP should be considered on initial diagnosis. High cortisol level was a good prognostic indicator for AP with low mortality. This could have further implications on the appropriate initiation of steroid therapy to prevent necrotizing pancreatitis and lower the mortality. Meanwhile, hs-CRP has a low prognostic value in early AP.

C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Complicated Acute Pancreatitis: Reality or a Myth?

Introduction C-reactive protein (CRP) has been reported as a predictor of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). However, there is conflicting evidence in the literature. The proposed cut-off values and intervals for best prediction include an absolute value of 150 at 48 hours; an absolute value of 190 at 48 hours; and the interval change in CRP of 90 at 48 hours. The current study assesses the value of CRP at different intervals and cut-offs in predicting complicated acute pancreatitis (CAP) and compares its performance against other available predictors like neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR); Glasgow scoring system and modified CT severity index (MCTSI).  Methods Analysis of prospectively maintained data for index episodes of acute pancreatitis managed in 225 patients over a period of five years (2014-2018) was done. CAP was defined by using revised Atlanta classification and included all the AP patients with local and or systemic complications. It was used as a gold standard. Diagnostic and predictive performance of different biochemical markers and multifactorial scoring systems were determined by analyzing receiving operating curves (ROCs), the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values (positive and negative).  Results Out of 225 patients, 122 were female while 103 patients were male. CAP developed in 47 patients (20.9%) while 178 (79.1%) patients had mild AP. Overall, in-hospital mortality rate was 1.8% (n=4). ROC analysis demonstrated that CRP at admission had low discriminatory value (AUC= 0.54, p-value=0.74). CRP at 48 hours had AUC of 0.70 (p-value=0.007). At a cut-off of 150, the positive predictive value (PPV) of 150 was 30 %. The PPV of CRP at 48 hours at a cut-off of 190 was 28%. Interval change in CRP at 48 hours greater than 90 had a PPV of 26 %. Further comparison of CRP with other scoring systems like Glasgow scoring system (AUC= 0.65), NL ratio (AUC=0.54), and MCTSI was performed. Among the single predictors, although, NL ratio showed good sensitivity at a cut-off value of 4.7 (87.23%), however, its discriminatory power was negligible (AUC=0.542, p-value=0.513). The overall best performance was achieved by the MCTSI scoring system at a cut-off of 3 (AUC=0.90, sensitivity=83.33 %, specificity=100%, diagnostic accuracy=94.49%).  Conclusion CRP measured at admission or at 48 hours has a very limited role in the prediction of CAP. Along with other scoring systems, its negative predictive value should be used to predict cases with mild AP which can help in clinical decision making for early discharge or management of such patients on ambulatory care basis. MCTSI scoring system can be used in cases with high suspicion of CAP.

Role of Interleukin-17 in Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a leading cause of death and is commonly accompanied by systemic manifestations that are generally associated with a poor prognosis. Many cytokines contribute to pancreatic tissue damage and cause systemic injury. Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a cytokine that may play a vital role in AP. Specifically, IL-17 has important effects on the immune response and causes interactions between different inflammatory mediators in the AP-related microenvironment. In this literature review, we will discuss the existing academic understanding of IL-17 and the impacts of IL-17 in different cells (especially in acinar cells and immune system cells) in AP pathogenesis. The clinical significance and potential mechanisms of IL-17 on AP deterioration are emphasized. The evidence suggests that inhibiting the IL-17 cytokine family could alleviate the pathogenic process of AP, and we highlight therapeutic strategies that directly or indirectly target IL-17 cytokines in acute pancreatitis.

Hematological Indices Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Presenting to the Emergency Department: A Retrospective Analysis

Introduction Acute pancreatitis is defined as inflammation of the pancreas. The body responds to inflammation by producing excessive neutrophils and causing programmed cell death of lymphocytes. This leads to immunological instability, which increases the severity of the disease and mortality rate. Recent data suggest that markers of systemic inflammation are able to predict the prognosis of various diseases. Our study aims to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis in conjunction with these hematological markers of systemic inflammation. Materials and methods Our study was carried out in the emergency medicine department of a tertiary care hospital among patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. It was a retrospective study done by reviewing the hospital's medical records. Hematological indices such as hemoglobin levels, packed cell volume (PCV), red blood cell (RBC) count, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), total leukocyte count (TLC), neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, platelet count, neutrophil to lymphocyte count ratio (NLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were observed to be associated with severity of pancreatitis. Those with computed tomography (CT) severity score >=7 were termed as severe pancreatitis, while those below 7 were considered mild to moderate. Results A total of 154 patients were included in the final analysis. The mean age of those patients was 48.47 ± 16.71 years. There were 94 male and 60 female patients. There was no difference found among the study groups with respect to mean hemoglobin levels, RBC count, PCV, MCV, MCH, MCHC, lymphocytes, and platelet counts. TLC (p<0.001), neutrophils (p<0.001), monocytes (p=0.008), NLR (p<0.001), and PLR (p=0.006) were found higher in severe pancreatitis, while LMR was found lower in severe pancreatitis (p=0.003). A linear relationship between the hematological indices and CT severity score has shown that TLC (p=0.015), neutrophils (p=0.005), NLR (p=0.001), and PLR (p<0.001) were positively correlated with severity while lymphocyte count (p=0.004) and LMR (p=0.005) were negatively correlated with severe pancreatitis. TLC and LMR were independent predictors of severe pancreatitis with an adjusted odds ratio of 12.80 and 5.47, respectively, on multivariable regression analysis. Conclusion Many markers correlated with the CT severity score, but few of them were able to demonstrate statistical significance on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

The association of parameters of body composition and laboratory markers with the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Hypertriglyceridemia has arisen as the third leading cause of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed at exploring the association between the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis (HTGP) and computed tomography (CT)-based body composition parameters and laboratory markers.

METHODS

Laboratory and clinical parameters were collected from 242 patients with HTGP between 2017 and 2020. Severity of HTGP was evaluated by original or modified CT severity index. Body composition parameters such as area and radiodensity of muscle, subcutaneous adipose tissue and visceral adipose tissue were calculated by CT at the level of third lumbar vertebra. Parameters were compared between mild and moderately severe to severe HTGP. Uni-variate and multi-variate Logistic regression analyses were employed to assess the risk factors of the severity of HTGP.

RESULTS

Seventy patients (28.9%) presented with mild HTGP. Body mass index, waist circumference and all CT-based body composition parameters differed between male and female patients. None was associated with the severity of HTGP, neither in males nor in females. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that areas under the curves of apolipoprotein A-I and albumin to predict the severity of HTGP were 0.786 and 0.759, respectively (all P < 0.001). Uni-variate and further multi-variate Logistic regression analysis confirmed that low serum albumin (< 35 g/L, P = 0.004, OR = 3.362, 95%CI = 1.492-8.823) and apolipoprotein A-I (< 1.1 g/L, P < 0.001, OR = 5.126, 95%CI = 2.348-11.195), as well as high C-reactive protein (> 90 mg/L, P = 0.005, OR = 3.061, 95%CI = 1.407-6.659) and lipase (P = 0.033, OR = 2.283, 95%CI = 1.070-4.873) were risk factors of moderately severe to severe HTGP. Levels of albumin, apolipoprotein A-I, C-reactive protein and lipase were also associated with the length of hospital stay (all P < 0.05). Besides, low serum albumin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high radiodensity of subcutaneous adipose tissue were significant risk factors of pancreatic necrosis in patients with HTGP (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Low serum albumin and apolipoprotein A-I, and high C-reactive protein and lipase upon admission were associated with a more severe type of HTGP and longer hospital stay for these patients. Albumin and apolipoprotein A-I may serve as novel biomarkers for the severity of HTGP. However, none of the body composition parameters was associated with the severity of HTGP.

Prediction of Self-Limited Acute Pancreatitis Cases at Admission to Emergency Unit

Background

While acute pancreatitis (AP) resolves spontaneously with supportive treatment in most patients, it may be life-threatening. Predicting the disease severity at onset dictates the management strategy. We aimed to define the patients with mild pancreatitis who may be considered for outpatient management with significant cost-savings.

Materials and Methods

This prospective observational study included 180 patients with mild AP according to the harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) and Imrie score. The relationships of biochemical parameters with the changes in the Balthazar score and clinical course were examined.

Results

The study included 180 patients (111 females, 69 males; mean age: 53.9 ± 17.2 years; range: 17-92 years). The etiology was biliary in 118 (65%) patients and remained undetermined in 38 (21.1%) patients. Computed tomography (CT) performed within the first 12 h revealed mild and moderate AP in 159 (88.3%) and 21 (11.7%) patients, respectively. CT repeated at 72 h revealed mild, moderate, and severe AP in 155 (86.1%), 24 (13.3%), and 1 (0.6%) patients, respectively. Comparisons between stages A + B + C and D + E showed significant differences in the amylase levels on day 1 and 3, and in C-reactive protein on day 3. Also, in stage D and E disease, narcotic analgesic intake, oral intake onset time, and pain were significantly higher.

Conclusion

There were no significant changes in the CT findings of patients with mild AP at 12 and 72 h. Most patients (n = 179; 99.4%) recovered uneventfully. Patients with mild pancreatitis according to the HAPS and Imrie scores can be considered for outpatient management. The recovery is longer in stage D and E disease.

Accuracy of BISAP score in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis

Objective

To determine the accuracy of BISAP score in comparison with Ranson's score in detection of severe acute pancreatitis.

Methods

This cross sectional study was performed in Emergency department and Surgery department of Dow university hospital from January 2015 to December 2015. A total of 206 patients were included. Those diagnosed with acute pancreatitis on the basis of epigastric pain, serum amylase levels more than 300 (more than 3 times normal) and meeting the inclusion criteria were subjected to investigations for Ranson's and BISAP scoring. BISAP score was calculated at 24 hours and Ranson's score both at 24 and 48 hours. A score of > 3 was used to label severe acute pancreatitis according to both scoring systems.

Results

In our study accuracy to predict SAP by BISAP score was 76.2 % and Ranson's score was 82.2%. On the basis of sensitivity, Ranson's scores predicted SAP more accurately than BISAP scores (97.4% vs. 69.2%). Regarding specificity, both scores predicted SAP almost equally (78.4% vs. 77.8%).

Conclusion

BISAP score is a valuable tool in predicting severe Acute Pancreatitis in early hours.

Decreased levels of regulatory B cells in patients with acute pancreatitis: association with the severity of the disease

Early stratification of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is clinically important. Regulatory B cells have been found to be associated with disease activity of autoimmune diseases. However, the role of Regulatory B cells in AP remains unknown. We investigate the dynamic longitudinal changes in circulating IL-10-producing B cells (B10) and memory CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells in patients with AP to evaluate their prediction utility for AP severity. B10, CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells, inflammatory markers and cytokines were detected in patients with AP immediately after admission to the hospital (day 1), then on the third and seventh days. We observed decreases in lymphocytes, CD19+, B10, CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells and lower mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) of CD80 and CD86 on B10 or CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells in patients with AP, especially in those with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells from patients with AP suppressed the cytokine productions of CD4+ T cells and CD14+ monocytes, but had impaired ability to induce regulatory T cells response. B10 and CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells significantly increased in patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) from day 1 to day 7, whereas these indexes remained stable in patients with SAP. B10 or CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells were negatively correlated with the severity index (APACHE II score), inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, CD64 index), and cytokines (IL-6, IL-17, TNF-α). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that B10 and CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells could predict the development of SAP. Thus, the detection of B10 and CD19+CD24hiCD27hi cells may be a practical way to improve the early assessment of AP severity.

Acute Pancreatitis: Etiology, Pathology, Diagnosis, and Treatment

Acute pancreatitis is a fascinating disease. In the United States, the two most common etiologies of acute pancreatitis are gallstones and excessive alcohol consumption. The diagnosis of acute pancreatitis is made with a combination of history, physical examination, computed tomography scan, and laboratory evaluation. Differentiating patients who will have a benign course of their pancreatitis from patients who will have severe pancreatitis is challenging to the clinician. C-reactive protein, pro-calcitonin, and the Bedside Index for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis appeared to be the best tools for the early and accurate diagnosis of severe pancreatitis. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy is indicated for patients with mild gallstone pancreatitis. For patients who are going to have a prolonged hospitalization, enteral nutrition is preferred. Total parenteral nutrition should be reserved for patients who cannot tolerate enteral nutrition. Prophylactic antibiotics are not indicated for patients with pancreatic necrosis. Surgical intervention for infected pancreatic necrosis should be delayed as long as possible to improve patient outcomes.

The predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in acute pancreatitis - is interval change in CRP an additional indicator of severity?

BACKGROUND

Using revised Atlanta classification defined outcomes, we compare absolute values in C-reactive protein (CRP), with interval changes in CRP, for severity stratification in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A retrospective study of all first incidence AP was conducted over a 5-year period. Interval change in CRP values from admission to day 1, 2 and 3 was compared against the absolute values. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve and likelihood ratios (LRs) were used to compare ability to predict severe and mild disease.

RESULTS

337 cases of first incidence AP were included in our analysis. ROC curve analysis demonstrated the second day as the most useful time for repeat CRP measurement. A CRP interval change >90 mg/dL at 48 h (+LR 2.15, -LR 0.26) was equivalent to an absolute value of >150 mg/dL within 48 h (+LR 2.32, -LR 0.25). The optimal cut-off for absolute CRP based on new, more stringent definition of severity was >190 mg/dL (+LR 2.72, -LR 0.24).

CONCLUSION

Interval change in CRP is a comparable measure to absolute CRP in the prognostication of AP severity. This study suggests a rise of >90 mg/dL from admission or an absolute value of >190 mg/dL at 48 h predicts severe disease with the greatest accuracy.

Clinical significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early predictive marker for adverse outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis

AIM

To investigated the prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis and determined an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of adverse outcomes in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 490 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed between March 2007 and December 2012. NLRs were calculated at admission and 24, 48, and 72 h after admission. Patients were grouped according to acute pancreatitis severity and organ failure occurrence, and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR between groups.

RESULTS

Among the 490 patients, 70 had severe acute pancreatitis with 31 experiencing organ failure. The severe acute pancreatitis group had a significantly higher NLR than the mild acute pancreatitis group on all 4 d (median, 6.14, 6.71, 5.70, and 4.00 vs 4.74, 4.47, 3.20, and 3.30, respectively, P < 0.05). The organ failure group had a significantly higher NLR than the group without organ failure on all 4 d (median, 7.09, 6.72, 6.27, and 6.24 vs 4.85, 4.49, 3.35, and 2.34, respectively, P < 0.05). The optimal cut-off value for baseline NLR was 4.76 in predicting severity and 4.88 in predicting organ failure in acute pancreatitis.

CONCLUSION

Elevated baseline NLR correlates with severe acute pancreatitis and organ failure.

Predicting and evaluation the severity in acute pancreatitis using a new modeling built on body mass index and intra-abdominal pressure

OBJECT

Acute pancreatitis (AP) keeps as severe medical diagnosis and treatment problem. Early evaluation for severity and risk stratification in patients with AP is very important. Some scoring system such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-II (APACHE-II), the computed tomography severity index (CTSI), Ranson's score and the bedside index of severity of AP (BISAP) have been used, nevertheless, there're a few shortcomings in these methods. The aim of this study was to construct a new modeling including intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) and body mass index (BMI) to evaluate the severity in AP.

METHODS

The study comprised of two independent cohorts of patients with AP, one set was used to develop modeling from Jinling hospital in the period between January 2013 and October 2016, 1073 patients were included in it; another set was used to validate modeling from the 81st hospital in the period between January 2012 and December 2016, 326 patients were included in it. The association between risk factors and severity of AP were assessed by univariable analysis; multivariable modeling was explored through stepwise selection regression. The change in IAP and BMI were combined to generate a regression equation as the new modeling. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in the new modeling.

RESULTS

Univariable analysis confirmed change in IAP and BMI to be significantly associated with severity of AP. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by the new modeling for severity of AP were 77.6%, 82.6%, 71.9%, 87.5% and 74.9% respectively in the developing dataset. There were significant differences between the new modeling and other scoring systems in these parameters (P < 0.05). In addition, a comparison of the area under receiver operating characteristic curves of them showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). The same results could be found in the validating dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

A new modeling based on IAP and BMI is more likely to predict the severity of AP.

THE PANC 3 SCORE PREDICTING SEVERITY OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS

Background :

About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice.

Objective :

To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome.

Methods :

Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification.

Results :

Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

Conclusion :

The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

Increased interleukin-23/17 axis and C-reactive protein are associated with severity of acute pancreatitis in patients

OBJECTIVE

The interleukin (IL)-23/IL-17 axis plays an important role in various inflammatory conditions but its function in acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well understood. The present study investigated the relationship between serum levels of IL-23, IL-17, and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients and the severity of AP.

METHODS

Eighty-five patients with AP were categorized into mild group, moderately severe group, and severe group according to the revised Atlanta classification, 2012. Serum levels of IL-23 and IL-17 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in patients 48 hours after admission. The CRP levels of patients were also measured on admission and 48 hours after admission.

RESULTS

The serum levels of CRP of patients on admission and 48 hours after admission and levels of IL-23 and IL-17 of patients 48 hours after admission increased alone with the severity of AP, respectively (P < 0.01). The serum levels of IL-23 and IL-17 in the patients were correlated with CRP levels (r = 0.234, r = 0.552, P < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The serum levels of IL-17, IL-23, and CRP are correlated with the severity of AP and represent valuable prognostic factors in the assessment of disease severity of patients with AP.

Hypotension in the first week of acute pancreatitis and APACHE II score predict development of infected pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

Hypotension and intestinal mucosal ischemia lead to bacterial translocation from the gut lumen into systemic circulation.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to determine the strength of association between different types of organ failure (OF): hypotension (cardiovascular system failure), renal failure, respiratory failure, CNS failure and coagulopathy in the first week of acute pancreatitis (AP) and the subsequent development of infected pancreatic necrosis (IN).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with AP were evaluated for OF and its severity in the first week of hospital admission. Modified multiple organ failure score (MOFS) was used to identify and grade severity of OF. MOFS of ≥2, lasting for more than 48 h was defined as OF. Occurrence of IN (isolation of bacteria in necrosectomy specimen or image guided fine needle aspiration of pancreatic necrosis) was compared between groups with and without OF.

RESULTS

Of the 81 patients, mean age was 40.1 ± 14.4 years and 55 were males; 60 (74 %) patients had OF and 13 (16 %) patients had IN. Occurrence of IN was not significantly different between patients with OF (18.3 %) and without OF (14.3 %), p = 0.48. However IN occurred in 10 % of patients without and 33.7 % patients with hypotension, p = 0.01. The rest of the organ systems analyzed did not show any significant difference in occurrence of infected necrosis. On multivariate analysis independent predictors of occurrence of IN were hypotension (odds ratio, OR 2.5, p < 0.001) and APACHE II score at 24 h of hospital admission (OR 4.77, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Hypotension in the first week of AP and APACHE II score predict development of IN.

Magnetic resonance imaging for the normal mesostenium and involvement of the mesostenium in acute pancreatitis

The main point of this paper is to study MRI findings of the normal mesostenium and the involvement of the mesostenium in acute pancreatitis and to discuss the relationship between the involvement of the mesostenium and the severity of acute pancreatitis. In clinical practice, the mesenterical involvement in acute pancreatitis was often observed on MRI in daily works, which was little recorded in the reported studies. We conducted the current study to assess the mesenterical involvement in acute pancreatitis with MRI. We found that the mesenterical involvement of acute pancreatitis patients is common on MRI. The mesenterical involvement has a positive correlation with the MR severity index and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Healthy Evaluation II scoring system. It has been shown that MR can be used to visualize mesenterical involvement, which is a supplementary indicator in evaluating the severity of acute pancreatitis and local and systemic complications.

Acute necrotizing pancreatitis: laboratory, clinical, and imaging findings as predictors of patient outcome

OBJECTIVE

In patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis, we analyzed whether laboratory and clinical findings determined in the early phase of disease and morphologic features on contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) at the beginning of the late phase of disease are helpful in predicting patient outcome and whether CECT findings provide additional information in establishing prognosis compared with the laboratory and clinical findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 99 patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis was performed. Four laboratory variables (albumin, calcium, C-reactive protein, WBC count) and three clinical variables (Acute Physiology, Age, Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II score; Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II; persistent organ failure) were assessed. Five morphologic features on CECT including Balthazar grade and CT severity index were reviewed. The endpoints of patient outcome were peripancreatic or pancreatic infection, need for intervention, duration of organ failure, ICU and hospital stays, and death. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for infection, high-and low-risk groups for each prognostic variable were calculated and univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

In our study population of 99 patients (63 men, 36 women; median age, 52 years; age range, 18-84 years), 25 patients (25%) developed infection, 42 patients (42%) experienced organ failure, and 12 patients (12%) died. Regarding the laboratory and clinical variables, albumin level, APACHE II score, and particularly persistent organ failure were the strongest independent predictors of patient outcome. Regarding the imaging variables, Balthazar grade and a morphologic feature that takes the distribution of intrapancreatic necrosis into account were the strongest independent predictors. In the multivariable analysis of all studied variables, imaging variables were independent and strong predictors of patient outcome and provided additional information in establishing prognosis compared with clinical and laboratory findings.

CONCLUSION

In patients with suspected or proven acute necrotizing pancreatitis, performing CECT at the beginning of the late phase of disease is recommended to identify patients at increased risk for adverse outcomes.

A risk calculator for short-term morbidity and mortality after hip fracture surgery

OBJECTIVE

Hip fractures are a common source of morbidity and mortality among the elderly. Although multiple prior studies have identified risk factors for poor outcomes, few studies have presented a validated risk stratification calculator.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was used to identify 4331 patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture between 2005 and 2010. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory values, and operative characteristics were compared in a univariate analysis, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was then used to identify independent predictors of 30-day morbidity and mortality. Weighted values were assigned to each independent risk factor and used to create predictive models of 30-day morbidity, minor complication risk, major complication risk, and total complication risk. The models were internally validated with randomly partitioned 80%/20% cohort groups.

RESULTS

Thirty-day mortality was 5.9% and morbidity was 30.0%. Patient age, especially age greater than 80 years [mortality: odds ratio (OR): 2.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-4.99); morbidity: OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.05-1.94], and male gender (mortality: OR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.61-3.22; morbidity: OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03-1.54) were associated with both increased mortality and morbidity. An increased American Society of Anesthesia class had the highest negative impact on total complication incidence in the scoring models. Additionally, complete functional dependence, active malignancy, patient race, cardiopulmonary disease, laboratory derangements, prolonged operating time, and open versus percutaneous surgery independently influenced outcomes. Risk scores, based on weighted models, which included the aforementioned variables, predicted mortality (P < 0.001, C index: 0.702) and morbidity (P < 0.001, C index: 0.670) after hip fracture surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we have developed an internally validated method for risk stratifying patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, and this model is predictive of both 30-day morbidity and mortality. Our model could be useful for identifying high-risk individuals, for obtaining informed consent, and for risk-adjusted comparisons of outcomes between institutions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic level II. See instructions for authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Observational study of intra-abdominal pressure monitoring in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) is predictive of adverse outcome in critically ill patients; however, its role in acute pancreatitis is unclear, and prospective studies are lacking. We aimed to determine the overall incidence and predictive value of IAH on mortality in acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

Transvesical IAP was measured on admission and every 4 hours within high-dependency unit/intensive care unit. Serum biochemistry and physiologic parameters permitted calculation of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Imrie, and Ranson scores. The primary end point was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 218 patients with acute pancreatitis were recruited; 30-day mortality was greater in patients with IAH (IAP ≥12 mmHg; 37%) than no IAH (2%; P < .001). A total of 14% of patients had IAH on admission; another 3% developed IAH in hospital. Mortality was greater in the latter group (37% vs 50%; P < .01). In the majority of cases IAH developed in line with other organ failure; however, there were several patients in whom the development of IAH appeared to be the sentinel event before rapid clinical decline. An IAP threshold of 9 mmHg had best predictive value for mortality (sensitivity 86%, specificity 87%; area under the ROC curve 0.91). This finding was comparable with other validated markers of severe pancreatitis (Imrie ≥3: sensitivity 51%, specificity 70%; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II: sensitivity 67%, specificity 96%; C-reactive protein >150: sensitivity 89%, specificity 83%).

CONCLUSION

IAP is a good predictor of mortality and organ failure in acute pancreatitis and compares favorably with other validated prognostic scores. Whether IAH is a phenomenon causative of organ failure or an epiphenomenon, occurring in conjunction with other organ dysfunction, remains unclear.

The prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in acute pancreatitis: identification of an optimal NLR

INTRODUCTION

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), calculated from the white cell differential count, provides a rapid indication of the extent of an inflammatory process. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the NLR in acute pancreatitis (AP) and determine an optimal ratio for severity prediction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

NLRs were calculated on days 0, 1, and 2, and correlated with severity. Severity was defined using the Atlanta classification.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-six consecutive patients managed were included, 22 with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). NLR in SAP was significantly higher than in the favorable prognosis group on all 3 days (day 0, 15.5 vs. 10.5; day 1, 13.3 vs. 9.8; day 2, 10.8 vs. 7.6). The optimal cut-offs from ROC curves were 10.6 (day 0), 8.1 (day 1), and 4.8 (day 2) giving sensitivities of 63-90 %, specificities of 50-57 %, negative predictive value of 89.5-96.4 %, positive predictive values of 21.2-31.1 %, and accuracies of 57.7-60 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevation of the NLR during the first 48 h of admission is significantly associated with severe acute pancreatitis and is an independent negative prognostic indicator in AP.

Autoimmune pancreatitis and non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis: computed tomography pattern

OBJECTIVES

To retrospectively differentiate diffuse autoimmune pancreatitis from non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis at clinical onset with multi detector row computed tomography.

METHODS

36 Patients suffering from diffuse autoimmune pancreatitis (14) or non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis (22) were enrolled. Qualitative analysis included stranding, retroperitoneal fluid film, capsule-like rim enhancement and pleural effusion. In quantitative analysis pancreatic density was measured in all phases. The vascularization behaviour was assessed using the relative enhancement rate across all phases.

RESULTS

Pancreatic density resulted lower in non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis compared to diffuse autoimmune pancreatitis patients in pre-contrast phase and higher in pancreatic phase. Relative enhancement rate evaluation confirmed different vascularization behaviours of the two diseases. Only non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis Patients presented peripancreatic stranding and fluid in the retromesenteric interfascial plane.

CONCLUSIONS

Multi detector row computed tomography is a useful technique for differentiating diffuse autoimmune pancreatitis from non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis at clinical onset. Peripancreatic stranding and retroperitoneal fluid film, characteristic of non-necrotizing acute pancreatitis, and late-phase peripheral rim enhancement, characteristic of diffuse autoimmune pancreatitis, provide qualitative clues to the differentiation. A quantitative study of contrast enhancement patterns, considering the relative enhancement rate, can assist in the differential diagnoses of two diseases.

Acute pancreatitis: should we use antibiotics?

Acute pancreatitis is a common cause of hospitalization and a major source of morbidity worldwide. When it is severe, and especially when it progresses to include necrosis of the pancreas, the risk of infection rises and mortality increases. Early reports suggested prophylactic antibiotics given in severe pancreatitis prevent infection and death. More recent clinical trials do not support this benefit, and meta-analyses on the topic offer conflicting recommendations. In this article, we evaluate the body of published literature examining the use of antibiotics as a preventive measure in acute pancreatitis. The highest quality, currently available data fail to support prophylactic use of antibiotics, which should be added to treatment regimens only where infection has been proven.

Validation of the harmless acute pancreatitis score in predicting nonsevere course of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS) is a scoring algorithm to identify patients with nonsevere acute pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reproducibility of HAPS outside its original study setting.

METHOD

Baseline information of all hospitalized patients with acute pancreatitis at Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 2004 and 2009 was collected. The parameters constituting HAPS were signs of peritonitis, hematocrit and serum creatinine levels. Since hematocrit was not available in all patients, complete sample analysis was performed by replacing hematocrit with hemoglobin (strongly correlated with hematocrit; r = 0.86).

RESULTS

In total, 531 patients with a first-time or a recurrent attack of acute pancreatitis were included. Among 353 patients with complete information on parameters constituting HAPS, 79 patients were predicted to have a nonsevere course, of whom 1 patient developed severe acute pancreatitis. The specificity of HAPS in predicting a nonsevere course of acute pancreatitis was 96.3% (95% CI: 81.0-99.9) with a corresponding positive predictive value of 98.7% (95% CI: 93.1-100). Complete sample analysis replacing hematocrit with hemoglobin level predicted a nonsevere course in 182 patients, of whom 2 patients had severe acute pancreatitis (94.3% specificity and 98.9% positive predictive value).

CONCLUSION

HAPS is a highly specific scoring algorithm that predicts a nonsevere course of acute pancreatitis. Therefore, HAPS might be an additional tool in the clinical assessment of acute pancreatitis where early screening is important to treat the patients at an optimal level of care.

Severe acute pancreatitis: advances and insights in assessment of severity and management

The patients with acute pancreatitis are at risk to develop different complications from ongoing pancreatic inflammation. Often, there is no correlation between the degree of structural damage to pancreas and clinical manifestation of the disease. The effectiveness of any treatment is related to the ability to predict severity accurately, but there is no ideal predictive system or biochemical marker. Severity assessment is indispensable to the selection of proper initial treatment in the management of acute pancreatitis. The use of multiparametric criteria and the evaluation of severity index permit us to select high-risk patients. Furthermore, contrast-enhanced computed tomographic scanning and contrast-enhanced MRI play an important role in severity assessment. The adoption of multiparametric criteria proposed together with morphological evaluation consents the formulation of a discreetly reliable prognosis on the evolution of the disease a few days from onset.

Severe acute pancreatitis requiring drainage therapy: findings on computed tomography as predictor of patient outcome

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To evaluate whether morphologic features on computed tomography (CT) correlate with outcome of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

80 patients with SAP requiring percutaneous drainage therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Twelve CT features beyond the CT severity index (CTSI) were studied. Endpoints for patient outcome were patient death, length of hospital and ICU stay. The twelve features and the CTSI score were correlated with mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimator and correlated with length of hospital and ICU stay using the χ(2) test. A p value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Two CT features exhibited a significant correlation with mortality: (1) the number of parts of pancreas (head, corpus, tail) that exhibited areas of necrosis and (2) the presence of distant fluid collections (posterior pararenal space and/or paracolic gutter). Mortality was 42% (21 of 50 patients) and 20% (6 of 30 patients) if two/all three parts or none/one part of the pancreas exhibited necrosis, respectively. Mortality was 46% (18 of 39 patients) and 22% (9 of 41 patients) if distant fluid collections were present or absent, respectively. All other imaging features including the CTSI showed no significant correlation with patient outcome.

CONCLUSION

We identified two morphologic features on CT that might be helpful to predict prognosis of patients suffering from SAP. and IAP.

Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein for the prediction of severity of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the performance of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Fifty patients with AP were prospectively enrolled. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and CRP were measured at admission and every 12 hours for 48 hours after admission.

RESULTS

The patients' mean age was 50 ± 2.2 years, 64% were male, and 30% developed severe AP. Patients with severe AP had higher levels of ESR (77 ± 4.7 vs 50 ± 4.8 mm/h; P = 0.002) and CRP (218 ± 30.7 vs 97 ± 12.1 mg/L; P <0.001) at 36 hours after admission compared with those with mild AP. Erythrocyte sedimentation rates of 60 mm/h or greater predict severe AP at 36 hours with a sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 86%, 57%, and 48% and 90%, whereas CRP of 150 mg/L or greater provided the results of 86%, 87%, and 75% and 93%, respectively. Elevation of either ESR or CRP at 24 hours increased the sensitivity and negative predictive value to 100%, and elevation of both ESR and CRP increased the specificity and PPV to 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

Erythrocyte sedimentation rate can predict severe AP with a slightly inferior performance to CRP. Combined ESR and CRP at 24 hours can predict severe AP accurately.

Use of antibiotics in severe acute pancreatitis

Infectious complications in severe acute pancreatitis are an important problem and determine outcome in patients who survived the first inflammatory hit of the disease. Timely diagnosis of infected pancreatic necrosis is often challenging, but should not delay adequate treatment, which consists of source control and antibiotic treatment. Prophylactic antibiotics are not effective in reducing the incidence of (peri)pancreatic infection in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (or necrotizing pancreatitis). The only rational indication for antibiotics at this moment is documented infection. The spectrum of empiric antibiotics should cover both Gram-negative, Gram-positive and anaerobic microorganisms (also keeping in mind exposure to nosocomial microorganisms), and local ecology should be taken into account. Fungal infections are often present, and antifungal coverage should be considered, especially if multiple risk factors for invasive candidiasis are present. Currently, no tools are available to guide antimicrobial treatment.

Cardiocirculatory pathophysiological mechanisms in severe acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common and potentially lethal acute inflammatory process. Although the majority of patients have a mild episode of AP, 10%-20% develop a severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and suffer systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and/or pancreatic necrosis. The main aim of this article is to review the set of events, first localized in the pancreas, that lead to pancreatic inflammation and to the spread to other organs contributing to multiorganic shock. The early pathogenic mechanisms in SAP are not completely understood but both premature activation of enzymes inside the pancreas, related to an impaired cytosolic Ca²⁺ homeostasis, as well as release of pancreatic enzymes into the bloodstream are considered important events in the onset of pancreatitis disease. Moreover, afferent fibers within the pancreas release neurotransmitters in response to tissue damage. The vasodilator effects of these neurotransmitters and the activation of pro-inflammatory substances play a crucial role in amplifying the inflammatory response, which leads to systemic manifestation of AP. Damage extension to other organs leads to SIRS, which is usually associated with cardiocirculatory physiology impairment and a hypotensive state. Hypotension is a risk factor for death and is associated with a significant hyporesponsiveness to vasoconstrictors. This indicates that stabilization of the patient, once this pathological situation has been established, would be a very difficult task. Therefore, it seems particularly necessary to understand the pathological mechanisms involved in the first phases of AP to avoid damage beyond the pancreas. Moreover, efforts must also be directed to identify those patients who are at risk of developing SAP.

Surgical management of pancreatic necrosis: towards lesser and later

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Our aim was to determine the overall success rate and survival rate with respect to the timing of intervention in the management of pancreatic necrosis. The use of minimally invasive pancreatic necrosectomy was also examined.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study carried out in a tertiary referral hospital. The subjects were all patients who suffered from acute pancreatic necrosis with emergency interventions from January 2001 to December 2007. For outcome measures, special emphasis was placed on the overall success rate and survival rate with respect to the timing of intervention. The success rate of percutaneous pancreatic necrosectomy (PCPN) was examined.

RESULTS

A total of 26 patients with pancreatic necrosis were studied. The overall mortality rate was 26.9% and the rate was significantly higher in those patients who had earlier intervention (before 6 weeks). Eleven patients had PCPN. There were 2 failures due to PCPN in the early phase; 2 had partial success, while the procedure was completely successful to remove all the necrotic tissues in the other 7 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

With a multidisciplinary approach, particularly with sophisticated intensive care, most patients with pancreatic necrosis can survive the initial phase. Open surgery should be limited to simple drainage and laparostomy to relieve the abdominal tension. Active intervention preferably should be delayed until the necrosis has become walled off, when a variety of minimally invasive maneuvers, notably percutaneous necrosectomy, can be offered to remove the debris. The surgical management of pancreatic necrosis should change towards a strategy of "lesser and later".

Acute pancreatitis: radiologic scores in predicting severity and outcome

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory disease which can be mild and self-limiting without complications or severe with prolonged hospitalization, high morbidity, and high mortality. Different radiological scoring systems to predict severity and outcome in AP have been developed since the early 1990s. In the meantime, new insights in the pathophysiology of AP and consequently, therapeutic management of these patients have been introduced. The purpose of this review is therefore (1) to describe the current terminology and new concepts in the pathophysiology, (2) to outline the long existing and newly developed radiological scoring systems in prediction of severity and outcome with their respective advantages and limitations, and (3) to define the role of radiological prognostic scoring systems in the new environment of perception of the last decade. Risk stratification in AP requires scoring systems that can be calculated early in the course of disease which allows time for intervention. For that reason, scoring systems based on necrosis are not useful in severity prediction. The recent developed radiological scoring systems based on signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and organ dysfunction are promising in prediction of severity early after onset of AP.