Predictive model for high-frequency microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer patients over 50 years of age

Prognosis and immunotherapy efficacy in dMMR&MSS colorectal cancer patients and an MSI status predicting model

The inconsistency between mismatch repair (MMR) protein immunohistochemistry (IHC) and microsatellite instability PCR (MSI-PCR) methods has been widely reported. We aim to investigate the prognosis and the effect of immunotherapy in dMMR by IHC but MSS by MSI-PCR (dMMR&MSS) colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. A microsatellite instability (MSI) predicting model was established to help find dMMR&MSS patients. MMR and MSI states were detected by the IHC and MSI-PCR in 1622 CRC patients (ZS6Y-1 cohort). Logistic regression analysis was used to screen clinical features to construct an MSI-predicting nomogram. We propose a new nomogram-based assay to find patients with dMMR&MSS, in which the MSI-PCR assay only detects dMMR patients with MSS predictive results. We applied the new strategy to a random cohort of 248 CRC patients (ZS6Y-2 cohort). The consistency of MMR IHC and MSI-PCR in the ZS6Y-1 cohort was 95.7% (1553/1622). Both pMMR&MSS and dMMR&MSS groups experienced significantly shorter overall survival (OS) than those in dMMR by IHC and MSI-H by MSI-PCR (dMMR&MSI-H) group (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.429, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.89-3.116, p < .01; HR = 21.96, 95% CI: 7.24-66.61, p < .01). The dMMR&MSS group experienced shorter OS than the pMMR&MSS group, but the difference did not reach significance (log rank test, p = .0686). In the immunotherapy group, the progression-free survival of dMMR&MSS patients was significantly shorter than that of dMMR&MSI-H patients (HR = 13.83, 95% CI: 1.508-126.8, p < .05). The ZS6Y-MSI-Pre nomogram (C-index = 0.816, 95% CI: 0.792-0.841, already online) found 66% (2/3) dMMR&MSS patients in the ZS6Y-2 cohort. There are significant differences in OS and immunotherapy effect between dMMR&MSI-H and dMMR&MSS patients. Our prediction model provides an economical way to screen dMMR&MSS patients.

Predictive modeling for the germline pathogenic variant of the APC gene in patients with adenomatous polyposis: proposing a new APC score

BACKGROUND

The precise diagnosis and medical management of patients with suspected familial adenomatous polyposis should be based on genetic testing, which may not always be available. Therefore, establishing a new model for predicting the likelihood of a germline pathogenic variant (GPV) of APC based on its clinical manifestations could prove to be useful in clinical practice.

METHODS

The presence of GPVs of APC gene was investigated in 162 patients with adenomatous polyposis (≥ 10 polyps) using a multigene panel or single-gene testing. To generate a predictive model for GPV of the APC gene, a logistic regression analysis was performed using the clinicopathological variables available at the time of the diagnosis of adenomatous polyposis.

RESULTS

Ninety (55.6%) patients had GPV of the APC gene. According to a multivariate logistic regression analysis, age < 40 years, polyps ≥ 100, fundic gland polyposis, and a family history of colorectal polyposis were found to be independent predictors of the GPV of APC and were used to establish a formula for predicting the GPV of APC using the four predictors. The prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.91 (0.86-0.96) according to a receiver operating characteristic analysis.

CONCLUSION

The model for predicting the GPV of APC will help patients with adenomatous polyposis and physicians make decisions about genetic testing.

Role of Mismatch Repair Deficiency Status and Microsatellite Instability in Relation to the Expression of Immune Checkpoint Proteins in Colorectal Cancer

Introduction Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world among men and second among women worldwide. One of the major molecular pathways responsible for the development of colorectal cancer (CRC) is the microsatellite instability (MSI) pathway. During carcinogenesis, the tumor cells express programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1), which reduces the immunogenicity leading to the escape of immune attack. Anti-PD-L1 interaction is an upcoming line of research for the treatment of colorectal carcinoma patients. Materials and methods The present study was an ambispective study where the mismatch repair deficiency status (MMR) and programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) expression were studied using immunohistochemistry and then later analyzed and compared with the clinicopathological parameters and MSI status in relation to the expression of programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) in neoplastic and immune cells in a total of 55 biopsy specimen. MMR expression was reported as retained or loss of nuclear staining, and PD-L1 expression was taken as positive with a cut-off of more than or equal to 5% membranous positivity in both tumor cells and immune cells. Results The analysis showed a significant correlation of microsatellite instability (MSI) status with two of the clinicopathological parameters, which were the site of the tumor (p-value<0.001) and M stage (p-value<0.001). PD-L1 expression in neoplastic cells showed no significant correlation with the clinicopathological parameters, whereas PD-L1 expression in immune cells showed a significant association with gender (p-value=0.043). Also, MSI status showed a significant association with PD-L1 expression in tumor cells (p-value <0.001).

Potential predictors for CDX2 expression loss and mismatch repair deficiency in colorectal cancer

CDX2 expression loss is commonly associated with mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR) in colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there are only a few studies that have attempted to correlate CDX2 expression loss with specific MMR genes (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2). This is a retrospective study of 327 patients who underwent surgery due to CRC. Nine patients (2.9%) had two synchronous CRCs, making the total sample 336 CRC. Histopathological data such as tumor type, tumor grade, perineural, lymphatic, and vascular invasion, pT stage, pN stage, peritumoral and intratumoral lymphocytic infiltration were collected and recorded in the database. After immunohistochemical analysis, CDX2 expression, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 deficiency were also recorded. CDX2 expression loss was detected in 19 out of 336 CRCs (5.9%) and was associated with ascending colon CRC, partially mucinous adenocarcinoma, poorly differentiated carcinoma, and dMMR. Forty-four (13.1%) of CRCs were dMMR. We found a statistically significant association between CDX2 expression loss and MLH1 and PMS2 deficiency. Considering that most expression phenotypes include pairs of MMR genes, we analyzed MLH1/PMS2 and MSH2/MSH6 as heterodimers. Analysis of heterodimers showed a similar result, namely, that MLH1/PMS2 heterodimer deficiency was significantly associated with CDX2 expression loss. We also constructed a regression model for CDX2 expression loss and for dMMR. Poor tumor differentiation and MLH1/PMS2 heterodimer deficiency have been identified as potential predictors for CDX2 expression loss. CRC in the ascending colon and CDX2 expression loss have been identified as positive potential predictors of dMMR with rectal cancer as negative potential predictor of dMMR. Our study showed a significant association between CDX2 expression loss and MLH1 and PMS2 deficiency in CRC. We also managed to produce a regression model for CDX2 expression and showed that poor tumor differentiation and MLH1/PMS2 heterodimer deficiency are independent factors for CDX2 expression loss. We were the first to include CDX2 expression in a regression model for dMMR and showed that CDX2 expression loss can be used as a predictive factor for dMMR, which should be confirmed by further studies.

PPsNet: An improved deep learning model for microsatellite instability high prediction in colorectal cancer from whole slide images

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Recent studies have shown that colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with microsatellite instability high (MSI-H) are more likely to benefit from immunotherapy. However, current MSI testing methods are not available for all patients due to the lack of available equipment and trained personnel, as well as the high cost of the assay. Here, we developed an improved deep learning model to predict MSI-H in CRC from whole slide images (WSIs).

METHODS

We established the MSI-H prediction model based on two stages: tumor detection and MSI classification. Previous works applied fine-tuning strategy directly for tumor detection, but ignoring the challenge of vanishing gradient due to the large number of convolutional layers. We added auxiliary classifiers to intermediate layers of pre-trained models to help propagate gradients back through in an effective manner. To predict MSI status, we constructed a pair-wise learning model with a synergic network, named parameter partial sharing network (PPsNet), where partial parameters are shared among two deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). The proposed PPsNet contained fewer parameters and reduced the problem of intra-class variation and inter-class similarity. We validated the proposed model on a holdout test set and two external test sets.

RESULTS

144 H&E-stained WSIs from 144 CRC patients (81 cases with MSI-H and 63 cases with MSI-L/MSS) were collected retrospectively from three hospitals. The experimental results indicate that deep supervision based fine-tuning almost outperforms training from scratch and utilizing fine-tuning directly. The proposed PPsNet always achieves better accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than other solutions with four different neural network architectures on validation. The proposed method finally achieves obvious improvements than other state-of-the-art methods on the validation dataset with an accuracy of 87.28% and AUC of 94.29%.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method can obviously increase model performance and our model yields better performance than other methods. Additionally, this work also demonstrates the feasibility of MSI-H prediction using digital pathology images based on deep learning in the Asian population. It is hoped that this model could serve as an auxiliary tool to identify CRC patients with MSI-H more time-saving and efficiently.

Non-invasive prediction of microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer by a genetic algorithm-enhanced artificial neural network-based CT radiomics signature

OBJECTIVE

The stratification of microsatellite instability (MSI) status assists clinicians in making treatment decisions for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This study aimed to establish a CT-based radiomics signature to predict MSI status in patients with CRC.

METHODS

A total of 837 CRC patients who underwent preoperative enhanced CT and had available MSI status data were recruited from two hospitals. Radiomics features were extracted from segmented tumours, and a series of data balancing and feature selection strategies were used to select MSI-related features. Finally, an MSI-related radiomics signature was constructed using a genetic algorithm-enhanced artificial neural network model. Combined and clinical models were constructed using multivariate logistic regression analyses by integrating the clinical factors with or without the signature. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic information of the signature in patients with CRC.

RESULTS

Ten features were selected to construct a signature which showed robust performance in both the internal and external validation cohorts, with areas under the curves (AUC) of 0.788 and 0.775, respectively. The performance of the signature was comparable to that of the combined model (AUCs of 0.777 and 0.767, respectively) and it outperformed the clinical model constituting age and tumour location (AUCs of 0.768 and 0.623, respectively). Survival analysis demonstrated that the signature could stratify patients with stage II CRC according to prognosis (HR: 0.402, p = 0.029).

CONCLUSIONS

This study built a robust radiomics signature for identifying the MSI status of CRC patients, which may assist individualised treatment decisions.

KEY POINTS

• Our well-designed modelling strategies helped overcome the problem of data imbalance caused by the low incidence of MSI. • Genetic algorithm-enhanced artificial neural network-based CT radiomics signature can effectively distinguish the MSI status of CRC patients. • Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that our signature could significantly stratify stage II CRC patients into high- and low-risk groups.

Artificial Intelligence for Predicting Microsatellite Instability Based on Tumor Histomorphology: A Systematic Review

Microsatellite instability (MSI)/defective DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) is receiving more attention as a biomarker for eligibility for immune checkpoint inhibitors in advanced diseases. However, due to high costs and resource limitations, MSI/dMMR testing is not widely performed. Some attempts are in progress to predict MSI/dMMR status through histomorphological features on H&E slides using artificial intelligence (AI) technology. In this study, the potential predictive role of this new methodology was reviewed through a systematic review. Studies up to September 2021 were searched through PubMed and Embase database searches. The design and results of each study were summarized, and the risk of bias for each study was evaluated. For colorectal cancer, AI-based systems showed excellent performance with the highest standard of 0.972; for gastric and endometrial cancers they showed a relatively low but satisfactory performance, with the highest standard of 0.81 and 0.82, respectively. However, analyzing the risk of bias, most studies were evaluated at high-risk. AI-based systems showed a high potential in predicting the MSI/dMMR status of different cancer types, and particularly of colorectal cancers. Therefore, a confirmation test should be required only for the results that are positive in the AI test.

Predictive Value of Metabolic Parameters Derived From 18F-FDG PET/CT for Microsatellite Instability in Patients With Colorectal Carcinoma

Background

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is one of the important factors that determine the effectiveness of immunotherapy in colorectal cancer (CRC) and serves as a prognostic biomarker for its clinical outcomes.

Purpose

To investigate whether the metabolic parameters derived from¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) can predict MSI status in patients with CRC.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on CRC patients who underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT examination before surgery between January 2015 and April 2021. The metabolic ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT parameters of the primary CRC lesion were calculated and recorded with different thresholds, including the maximum, peak, and mean standardized uptake value (SUV_max, SUV_peak, and SUV_mean), as well as the metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG). The status of MSI was determined by immunohistochemical assessment. The difference of quantitative parameters between MSI and microsatellite stability (MSS) groups was assessed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses with area under ROC curves (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive performance of metabolic parameters.

Results

A total of 44 patients (24 men and 20 women; mean ± standard deviation age: 71.1 ± 14.2 years) were included. There were 14 patients in the MSI group while there were 30 in the MSS group. MTV_30%, MTV_40%, MTV_50%, and MTV_60%, as well as TLG_50% and TLG_60% showed significant difference between two groups (all p-values <0.05), among which MTV_50% demonstrated the highest performance in the prediction of MSI, with an AUC of 0.805 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.657-0.909], a sensitivity of 92.9% (95% CI: 0.661-0.998), and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 0.472-0.827). Patients' age and MTV_50% were significant predictive indicators of MSI in multivariate logistic regression.

Conclusion

The metabolic parameters derived from¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT were able to preoperatively predict the MSI status in CRC, with MTV_50% demonstrating the highest predictive performance. PET/CT imaging could serve as a noninvasive tool in the guidance of immunotherapy and individualized treatment in CRC patients.

Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum (JSCCR) guidelines 2020 for the Clinical Practice of Hereditary Colorectal Cancer

Hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) accounts for < 5% of all colorectal cancer cases. Some of the unique characteristics commonly encountered in HCRC cases include early age of onset, synchronous/metachronous cancer occurrence, and multiple cancers in other organs. These characteristics necessitate different management approaches, including diagnosis, treatment or surveillance, from sporadic colorectal cancer management. There are two representative HCRC, named familial adenomatous polyposis and Lynch syndrome. Other than these two HCRC syndromes, related disorders have also been reported. Several guidelines for hereditary disorders have already been published worldwide. In Japan, the first guideline for HCRC was prepared by the Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum (JSCCR), published in 2012 and revised in 2016. This revised version of the guideline was immediately translated into English and published in 2017. Since then, several new findings and novel disease concepts related to HCRC have been discovered. The currently diagnosed HCRC rate in daily clinical practice is relatively low; however, this is predicted to increase in the era of cancer genomic medicine, with the advancement of cancer multi-gene panel testing or whole genome testing, among others. Under these circumstances, the JSCCR guidelines 2020 for HCRC were prepared by consensus among members of the JSCCR HCRC Guideline Committee, based on a careful review of the evidence retrieved from literature searches, and considering the medical health insurance system and actual clinical practice settings in Japan. Herein, we present the English version of the JSCCR guidelines 2020 for HCRC.

Importance of lymph node immune responses in MSI-H/dMMR colorectal cancer

Patients with colorectal cancers (CRCs) generally exhibit improved survival through intensive lymph node (LN) dissection. However, recent progress in cancer immunotherapy revisits the potential importance of regional LNs, where T cells are primed to attack tumor cells. To elucidate the role of regional LN, we investigated the immunological status of nonmetastatic regional LN lymphocytes (LNLs) in comparison with those of the tumor microenvironment (tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes; TILs) using flow cytometry and next-generation sequencing. LNLs comprised an intermediate level of the effector T cell population between peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs) and TILs. Significant overlap of the T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire was observed in microsatellite instability–high/mismatch repair–deficient (MSI-H/dMMR) CRCs with high tumor mutation burden (TMB), although limited TCRs were shared between nonmetastatic LNs and primary tumors in microsatellite stable/MMR proficient (MSS/pMMR) CRC patients with low TMB. In line with the overlap of the TCR repertoire, an excessive LN dissection did not provide a positive impact on long-term prognosis in our MSI-H/dMMR CRC cohort (n = 130). We propose that regional LNs play an important role in antitumor immunity, particularly in MSI-H/dMMR CRCs with high TMB, requiring care to be taken regarding excessive nonmetastatic LN dissection in MSI-H/dMMR CRC patients.

Real-world data on microsatellite instability status in various unresectable or metastatic solid tumors

Microsatellite instability‐high (MSI‐H) is an important biomarker for predicting the effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) on advanced solid tumors. Microsatellite instability‐high is detected in various cancers, but its frequency varies by cancer type and stage. Therefore, precise frequency is required to plan ICI therapy. In this study, the results of MSI tests actually carried out in clinical practice were investigated. In total, 26 469 samples of various cancers were examined between December 2018 and November 2019 to determine whether programmed cell death‐1 blockade was indicated. The results of MSI tests were obtained for 26 237 (99.1%) of these samples. The male : female ratio was 51:49 and mean age was 64.3 years. In all samples, the overall frequency of MSI‐H was 3.72%. By gender, the frequency of MSI‐H was higher in female patients (4.75%) than in male patients (2.62%; P < .001). A comparison by age revealed that the frequency of MSI‐H was significantly higher in patients younger than 40 years of age (6.12%) and 80 years or older (5.77%) than in patients aged between 60 and 79 years (3.09%; P < .001). Microsatellite instability‐high was detected in 30 cancer types. Common cancer types were: endometrial cancer, 16.85%; small intestinal cancer, 8.63%; gastric cancer, 6.74%; duodenal cancer, 5.60%; and colorectal cancer, 3.78%. Microsatellite instability‐high was detected in cancer derived from a wide variety of organs. The frequency of MSI‐H varied by cancer type and onset age. These data should prove especially useful when considering ICI treatment.

Baseline lesion number as an efficacy predictive and independent prognostic factor and its joint utility with TMB for PD-1 inhibitor treatment in advanced gastric cancer

Background

We previously reported tumor mutation burden (TMB) as a potential prognostic factor for patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC) receiving immunotherapy. We aimed to comprehensively understand the impact of tumor burden and TMB on efficacy and prognosis in immunotherapy-treated AGC patients.

Methods

A total of 58 patients with refractory AGC receiving PD-1 inhibitor monotherapy from a phase Ib/II clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02915432) were retrospectively included. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses and the Cox proportional hazards model were performed for prognostic value of baseline factors. Factors reflecting baseline tumor burden, including baseline lesion number (BLN), the maximum tumor size (MTS) and the sum of target lesion size (SLS) were analyzed. The objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) were compared by Chi-square test.

Results

In univariate analysis, high BLN was associated with poor median progression-free survival (mPFS) [1.7 months versus 3.4 months; hazard ratio (HR), 2.696, p < 0.05] and median overall survival (mOS) (3.2 months versus 7.6 months; HR, 1.997, p < 0.05), while high TMB was a positive prognostic factor. In multivariable analysis, both BLN and TMB were independent prognostic factors for mOS (BLN: HR, 2.782, p < 0.05; TMB: HR, 0.288, p < 0.05), while MTS or SLS had no association with survival. Better ORR and DCR were observed in the low BLN group (15.4% versus 5.3%, p > 0.05; 86.96% versus 54.29%, p < 0.05). When combining BLN and TMB, the best efficacy and survival were observed in the BLN^lowTMB^high group (ORR: 37.5%, DCR: 62.5%, mPFS and mOS: not reached). The worst efficacy and survival were shown in the BNL^highTMB^low group [ORR: 0% (0/15); DCR: 13.3%; mPFS: 1.7 months; mOS: 2.7 months (all p < 0.05)].

Conclusions

BLN, rather than factors regarding baseline tumor size, is perhaps a potential predictor for benefit from immunotherapy and its combination with TMB could further risk-stratify patients with AGC receiving immunotherapy.

Artificial Intelligence for Histology-Based Detection of Microsatellite Instability and Prediction of Response to Immunotherapy in Colorectal Cancer

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is a molecular marker of deficient DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) that is found in approximately 15% of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Testing all CRC patients for MSI/dMMR is recommended as screening for Lynch Syndrome and, more recently, to determine eligibility for immune checkpoint inhibitors in advanced disease. However, universal testing for MSI/dMMR has not been uniformly implemented because of cost and resource limitations. Artificial intelligence has been used to predict MSI/dMMR directly from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained tissue slides. We review the emerging data regarding the utility of machine learning for MSI classification, focusing on CRC. We also provide the clinician with an introduction to image analysis with machine learning and convolutional neural networks. Machine learning can predict MSI/dMMR with high accuracy in high quality, curated datasets. Accuracy can be significantly decreased when applied to cohorts with different ethnic and/or clinical characteristics, or different tissue preparation protocols. Research is ongoing to determine the optimal machine learning methods for predicting MSI, which will need to be compared to current clinical practices, including next-generation sequencing. Predicting response to immunotherapy remains an unmet need.

Comparison of universal screening in major lynch-associated tumors: a systematic review of literature

Lynch syndrome (LS) is associated with an increased lifetime risk of several cancers including colorectal (CRC), endometrial (EC), ovarian (OC), urinary (UT) and sebaceous tumors (ST). The benefit for universal screening in CRC and EC is well known. However, this benefit in other major lynch-associated tumors is unclear. We performed a systematic review of all published articles in the MEDLINE database between 2005 to 2017 to identify studies performing universal screening for LS in unselected CRC, EC, OC, UT and ST. All cases with MSI-H (instability in two or more markers) or missing one or more proteins on IHC testing were considered screening positive. Cases with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation or BRAF mutation positive were considered to have somatic mutations. A total of 3788 articles were identified in MEDLINE yielding 129 study arms from 113 studies. The overall pooled yield of universal LS screening and germline mismatch gene mutation was significantly different across the major LS-associated tumors (Mann Whitney test, p < 0.001). The pooled screening yield was highest in ST [52.5% (355/676), 95% CI 48.74-56.26%] followed by EC [22.65% (1142/5041), 95% CI 21.54-23.86%], CRC [11.9% (5649/47,545), 95% CI 11.61-12.19%], OC [11.29% (320/2833), 95% CI 10.13-12.47%] and UT [11.2% (31/276), 95% CI 7.48-14.92%]. ST also had the highest pooled germline positivity for mismatch repair gene mutation [18.8%, 33/176, 95%CI 13.03-24.57], followed by EC [2.6% (97/3765), 95% CI 2.09-3.11], CRC [1.8% (682/37,220), 95% CI 1.66-1.94%], UT [1.8%(3/164), 95% CI - 0.24-3.83%] and OC [0.83%(25/2983), 95% CI 0.48-1.12%]. LS screening in EC yielded significantly higher somatic mutations compared to CRC [pooled percentage 16.94% [(538/3176), 95%CI 15.60-18.20%] vs. 5.23% [(1639/26,152), 95% CI 4.93-5.47%], Mann Whitney test, p < 0.0001. Universal LS testing should be routinely performed in OC, UT and STs in addition to CRC and EC. Our findings also support consideration for IHC and somatic mutation testing before germline testing in EC due to higher prevalence of somatic mutations as well as germline testing in all patients with ST. Our results have implications for future design of LS screening programs and further studies are needed to assess the cost effectiveness and burden on genetic counselling services with expanded universal testing for LS.

Development and validation of MMR prediction model based on simplified clinicopathological features and serum tumour markers

BACKGROUND

Although simplified clinicopathological features and serum tumour markers (STMs) were reported to be associated with the status of mismatch repair (MMR) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, their predictive value alone or in combination for MMR status remains unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 3274 participants with MMR testing and STMs measurements from two institutions was conducted. The prediction model was developed in the primary cohort that consisted of 1964 participants. Best subset regression was applied to select the most useful predictors from the primary dataset. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. External validation was performed in an independent validation cohort of 1310 consecutive CRC patients.

FINDINGS

Among the ten simplified clinicopathological features, seven variables were selected as the best subset of risk factors to develop pathology-based model, including age, tumour diameters, histology, tumour location, perineural invasion, the number of sampled lymph nodes (LNs) and positive LNs. The model showed good calibration and discrimination, with an AUC of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.722 to 0.789) in the primary cohort and 0.754 (95% CI, 0.715 to 0.793) in the validation cohort. After the addition of CEA and CA 72-4, the performance of pathology-based model was significantly improved in in both the primary cohort (AUC: 0.805 (0.774-0.835) vs. 0.756 (0.722-0.789), P < 0.001) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.796 (0.758-0.835) vs. 0.754 (0.715-0.793), P < 0.001). The results of decision curve analysis revealed that using our models to predict the status of MMR would add more benefit than either the detect-all-patients scheme or the detect-none scheme.

INTERPRETATION

The models based on simplified clinicopathological features alone or in combination with STMs can be conveniently used to facilitate the postoperative individualized prediction of MMR status in CRC patients.

Worldwide variation in lynch syndrome screening: case for universal screening in low colorectal cancer prevalence areas

To perform a systematic assessment of universal Lynch syndrome (LS) screening yield in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients around the world. Universal screening for LS is recommended in all CRC patients. However, the variation in yield of LS screening in the setting of significant global variation in CRC prevalence is unknown. A systematic review of articles in the MEDLINE database was performed to identify studies performing universal screening for LS. All cases with microsatellite instability (MSI-H) or missing one or more proteins on immunohistochemistry (IHC) were considered screening positive. The overall pooled yield of universal LS screening in 97 study arms from 89 identified studies was 11.9% (5649/47545) and the overall pooled percentage of confirmed LS patients was 1.8% (682/37220). LS screening positivity varied significantly based on geographic region (Kruskal Wallis test, p < 0.001) and reported 5-year CRC prevalence in the country (Fisher's exact, p < 0.001). Significant inverse correlation was found between LS screening positivity and 5-year CRC prevalence (Pearson correlation, r =  - 0.56, p < 0.001). The overall yield of LS screening was 15.00% (382/2553) and rate of confirmed LS was 7.7% (113/1475) in LS screening done in patients ≤ 50 years (16 studies). There is significant geographic variation in LS screening positivity with higher yield in countries with lower prevalence of CRC. Our results highlight the importance of universal LS screening in younger patients and low CRC prevalence countries.

Microsatellite instability and sensitivity to fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin containing first-line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of microsatellite instability (MSI) on the outcome of fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin containing first-line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

METHODS

Patients with mCRC and treated with fluoropyrimidine/oxaliplatin first-line chemotherapy were included in our study. Demographic data, tumour characteristics, chemotherapy regimens, treatment responses and progression-free survival (PFS) were collected from medical records. The MSI analysis was performed using fluorescence-based PCR, and divided into MSI-high (MSI-H) and MSI-low (MSI-L)/microsatellite stable (MSS). Statistical analysis used Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and multivariate Cox model.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2015 to 1 May 2016, a total of 192 patients with mCRC were included in our study. Among these, 14 (7.29%) exhibited MSI-H and 178 (92.71%) were MSI-L/MSS. The objective response rate (p=0.79), disease control rate (p=0.22) and PFS (p=0.22) of fluoropyrimidine/oxaliplatin first-line chemotherapy were not significantly different between MSI-H and MSI-L/MSS tumours. But MSI-H tumours had a trend to better disease control rate (71.43% vs 54.49%) and PFS (6.50 m vs 5.40 m) than MSI-L/MSS tumours. Multivariate analysis indicated that MSI was not a predictive factor for PFS (p=0.18).

CONCLUSION

The effect of fluoropyrimidine/oxaliplatin first-line chemotherapy was not significantly different between MSI-H and MSI-L/MSS tumours. However, MSI-H tumours tended to have better disease control rate and PFS.

Multicenter Phase I/II Trial of Napabucasin and Pembrolizumab in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (EPOC1503/SCOOP Trial)

PURPOSE

This is a phase I/II trial to assess the efficacy and safety of napabucasin plus pembrolizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Phase I was conducted to determine the recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) in a dose escalation design of napabucasin (240 to 480 mg twice daily) with 200 mg pembrolizumab every 3 weeks. Phase II included cohort A (n = 10, microsatellite instability high, MSI-H) and cohort B (n = 40, microsatellite stable, MSS). The primary endpoint was immune-related objective response rate (irORR). PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS), genomic profiles, and the consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) of colorectal cancer were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 55 patients were enrolled in this study. In phase I, no patients experienced dose-limiting toxicities, and napabucasin 480 mg was determined as RP2D. The irORR was 50.0% in cohort A and 10.0% in cohort B. In cohort B, the irORR was 0%, 5.3%, and 42.9% in CPS < 1, 1≤ CPS <10, and CPS ≥ 10, respectively. Patients with objective response tended to have higher tumor mutation burden than those without. Of evaluable 18 patients for CMS classification in cohort B, the irORR was 33.3%, 0%, 33.3%, and 33.3% in CMS1, CMS2, CMS3, and CMS4, respectively. The common grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events included fever (10.0%) in cohort A and decreased appetite (7.5%) and diarrhea (5.0%) in cohort B.

CONCLUSIONS

Napabucasin with pembrolizumab showed antitumor activity with acceptable toxicities for patients with MSS mCRC as well as MSI-H mCRC, although it did not meet the primary end point. The impact of related biomarkers on the efficacy warrants further investigations in the additional cohort.See related commentary by Nusrat, p. 5775.

Immunohistochemical Expression of MMR Proteins with Clinicopathological Correlation in Colorectal Cancer in Egypt

BACKGROUND

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is the genetic pathway underlying 15% of sporadic colorectal carcinoma (CRC) and hereditary non-polyposis CRC. MSI-H CRC has a distinct clinicopathological characteristic including excess mucin and signet ring component, proximal colon, Crohn's like reaction, lymphocytic infiltration, and better survival.

AIM

This research aims to screen Egyptian CRC patients for MSI status by IHC testing of expression of the MMR proteins in correlation to its clinicopathological features.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Immunohistochemistry study for mismatch repair proteins (MMR) was done on 115 cases of CRC. Their expressions were assessed and correlated to clinicopathological parameters in an attempt to obtain the most significant predictors of MSI.

RESULTS

MSI (low and high) represents 67% of the study cases. The most frequent expression pattern was combined loss of MLH, and PMS2 (38% of MSI) followed by a combined loss of MSH2, and MSH6 (29% of MSI). There was significant correlation of expression pattern of MMR proteins with the laterality, lymphovascular emboli, perineural invasion, grade, T stage, N stage, signet ring component, tumor infiltrating lymphocyte, and peritumoral lesion (0.014, 0.035, 0.012, 0.033, 0.013, 0.000, 0.041, 0.012, and 0.009 respectively). Proximal location (right sided) and lower grade, higher nodal stage, and marked TIL were selected as predictors of MS-H CRC (0.005, 0.031, 0.025, and 0.000 respectively).

CONCLUSION

All clinicopathological and histological parameters should be assessed in CRC for the sake of predicting MSI. The optimal approach to MSI evaluation is (IHC) assessment of MMR proteins.

Atezolizumab with or without cobimetinib versus regorafenib in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer (IMblaze370): a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Microsatellite-stable metastatic colorectal cancer is typically unresponsive to immunotherapy. This phase 3 study was designed to assess atezolizumab plus cobimetinib in metastatic colorectal cancer. Here, we report the comparison of atezolizumab plus cobimetinib or atezolizumab monotherapy versus regorafenib in the third-line setting.

METHODS

IMblaze 370 is a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial, done at 73 academic medical centres and community oncology practices in 11 countries. Patients aged at least 18 years with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer, baseline Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1, and disease progression on or intolerance to at least two previous systemic chemotherapy regimens were enrolled. We used permuted-block randomisation (block size four) to assign patients (2:1:1) via an interactive voice and web response system to atezolizumab (840 mg intravenously every 2 weeks) plus cobimetinib (60 mg orally once daily for days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle), atezolizumab monotherapy (1200 mg intravenously every 3 weeks), or regorafenib (160 mg orally once daily for days 1-21 of a 28-day cycle). Stratification factors were extended RAS status (wild-type vs mutant) and time since diagnosis of first metastasis (<18 months vs ≥18 months). Recruitment of patients with high microsatellite instability was capped at 5%. The primary endpoint was overall survival in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in the population of patients who received at least one dose of their assigned treatment. IMblaze370 is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02788279.

FINDINGS

Between July 27, 2016, and Jan 19, 2017, 363 patients were enrolled (183 patients in the atezolizumab plus cobimetinib group, 90 in the atezolizumab group, and 90 in the regorafenib group). At data cutoff (March 9, 2018), median follow-up was 7·3 months (IQR 3·7-13·6). Median overall survival was 8·87 months (95% CI 7·00-10·61) with atezolizumab plus cobimetinib, 7·10 months (6·05-10·05) with atezolizumab, and 8·51 months (6·41-10·71) with regorafenib; the hazard ratio was 1·00 (95% CI 0·73-1·38; p=0·99) for the combination versus regorafenib and 1·19 (0·83-1·71; p=0·34) for atezolizumab versus regorafenib. Grade 3-4 adverse events were reported in 109 (61%) of 179 patients in the atezolizumab plus cobimetinib group, 28 (31%) of 90 in the atezolizumab group, and 46 (58%) of 80 in the regorafenib group. The most common all-cause grade 3-4 adverse events in the combination group were diarrhoea (20 [11%] of 179), anaemia (ten [6%]), increased blood creatine phosphokinase (12 [7%]), and fatigue (eight [4%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 71 (40%) of 179 patients in the combination group, 15 (17%) of 90 in the atezolizumab group, and 18 (23%) of 80 in the regorafenib group. Two treatment-related deaths occurred in the combination group (sepsis) and one in the regorafenib group (intestinal perforation).

INTERPRETATION

IMblaze370 did not meet its primary endpoint of improved overall survival with atezolizumab plus cobimetinib or atezolizumab versus regorafenib. The safety of atezolizumab plus cobimetinib was consistent with those of the individual drugs. These results underscore the challenge of expanding the benefit of immunotherapy to patients whose tumours have lower baseline levels of immune inflammation, such as those with microsatellite-stable metastatic colorectal cancer.

FUNDING

F Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd/Genentech Inc.

Differences in histological features and PD-L1 expression between sporadic microsatellite instability and Lynch-syndrome-associated disease in Japanese patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The field of immunotherapy has recently focused on cancers with microsatellite instability (MSI). These cancers include both Lynch-syndrome-associated tumors, which are caused by mismatch repair (MMR) germline mutations, and sporadic MSI tumors, which are mainly attributed to MLH1 promoter methylation. The present study aimed to clarify differences in the histological and PD-L1 expression profiles between these two types of MSI cancers in Japanese patients.

METHODS

Among 908 cases of colorectal cancer treated via surgical resection from 2008 to 2014, we identified 64 MSI cancers, including 36 sporadic MSI and 28 Lynch-syndrome-associated cancers, using a BRAF V600E mutation analysis and MLH1 methylation analysis. Of the latter subgroup, 21 (75%) harbored MMR germline mutations.

RESULTS

The following were more frequent with sporadic MSI than with Lynch syndrome associated cancers: poor differentiation (50.0 vs. 7.1%, P = 0.0002), especially solid type (30.6 vs. 3.6%, P = 0.0061); medullary morphology (19.4 and 0%, P = 0.015), Crohn-like lymphoid reaction (50.0 vs. 25.0%, P = 0.042), and PD-L1 expression (25.0 vs. 3.6%, P = 0.034). However, the groups did not differ in terms of the mean invasive front and intratumoral CD8-positive cell densities. In a logistic regression analysis, PD-L1 expression correlated with poor differentiation (odds ratio: 7.65, 95% confidence interval: 1.55-37.7, P = 0.012), but not with the difference between sporadic MSI cancer and Lynch-syndrome-associated cancer (odds ratio: 4.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.50-45.0, P = 0.176).

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, compared with Lynch-syndrome-associated cancers, sporadic MSI cancers are more frequently solid, poorly differentiated medullary cancers that express PD-L1.

Predictive model for high-frequency microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer patients over 50 years of age

Microsatellite instability (MSI) is an important biomarker for screening for Lynch syndrome, and also of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. The aim of this study is to create a predictive model to determine which elderly patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) should undergo MSI and/or immunohistochemistry testing on the basis of clinicopathological data. We analyzed a test cohort of CRC patients aged ≥50 years (n = 2219) by multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify predictors of high‐frequency MSI (MSI‐H). The created prediction model was validated in an external cohort (n = 992). The frequency of MSI‐H was 5.5% among CRC patients aged ≥ 50 years. The following five predictors of MSI‐H were identified in the test cohort: female (1 point), mucinous component (2 points), tumor size ≥ 60 mm (2 points), location in proximal colon (3 points), and BRAF mutation (6 points). The area under curve (AUC) in the receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of this prediction model was 0.832 (95% confidence interval: 0.790–0.874). The sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 77.7%, respectively, for a cut‐off score of 4 points. The receiver‐operating characteristic curve of the validation cohort also showed an AUC of 0.856 (95% CI: 0.806–0.905). This prediction model is useful to select elderly CRC patients who should undergo MSI testing, and who may benefit from treatment with 5‐FU‐based adjuvant chemotherapy and cancer immunotherapy.