Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

A computed tomography urography-based machine learning model for predicting preoperative pathological grade of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Development and validation of a computed tomography urography (CTU)-based machine learning (ML) model for prediction of preoperative pathology grade of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

METHODS

A total of 140 patients with UTUC who underwent CTU examination from January 2017 to August 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. Tumor lesions on the unenhanced, medullary, and excretory periods of CTU were used to extract Features, respectively. Feature selection was screened by the Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The logistic regression (LR) was used to screen for independent influencing factors of clinical baseline characteristics. Machine learning models based on different feature datasets were constructed and validated using algorithms such as LR, RF, SVM, and XGBoost. By computing the selected features, a radiomics score was generated, and a diverse feature dataset was constructed. Based on the training set, 16 ML models were created, and their performance was evaluated using the validation set for metrics including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and others.

RESULTS

The training set consisted of 98 patients (mean age: 64.5 ± 10.5 years; 30 males), whereas the validation set consisted of 42 patients (mean age: 65.3 ± 9.78 years; 17 males). Hydronephrosis was the best independent influence factor (p < 0.05). The RF model had the best performance in predicting high-grade UTUC, with AUC of 0.914 (95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] 0.852-0.977) and 0.903 (95%CI 0.809-0.997) in the training set and validation set, and accuracy of 0.878 and 0.857, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

An ML model based on the RF algorithm exhibits excellent predictive performance, offering a non-invasive approach for predicting preoperative high-grade UTUC.

The prognostic impact of lymph node dissection for clinically node-negative upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in patients who are treated with radical nephroureterectomy

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the prognostic impact of lymph node dissection (LND) in patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) with bladder cuff excision (BCE) for clinically node-negative (cN0) upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 520 patients with cN0 UTUC in a single tertiary referral center from 2000 to 2015. The patients were divided into three groups: patients with and without pathologically proved lymph node metastasis (pN1-3 and pN0, respectively) and patients without LND (pNx). We analyzed associations between overall survival (OS)/ disease-free survival (DFS)/ cancer-specific survival (CSS) and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

The patients were divided into three groups (pN1-3, pN0 and pNx with 20, 303, and 197 patients, respectively). OS/DFS/CSS in the pN1-3 group were significantly worse (all p<0.001) compared with the pN0 group. However, there were no significant differences between the pNx and pN0 groups. In the multivariate analyses, CSS was only affected by age [(hazard ratio (HR) = 1.03, p = 0.008]), positive surgical margin (HR = 3.38, p<0.001) and pathological T3-4 stages (HR = 4.07, p<0.001). In the subgroup analyses for patients with LND, locally advanced disease (pT3 and pT4) had significantly more metastases [T3-4: 13.91% (16/115) vs. T0-2: 1.92% (4/208), p<0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

In the pN0 group, LND for cN0 UTUC did not show therapeutic benefits in terms of DFS, CSS, and OS. However, LND with RNU allowed optimal tumor staging, through patients still had a poor prognosis. Clinically occult LN metastases were found in 6.2% of our patients.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Nomograms After UTUC Surgery

Background

Current guidelines recommend assessing the prognosis in high-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients (UTUC) after surgery. However, no specific method is endorsed. Among the various prognostic models, nomograms represent an easy and accurate tool to predict the individual probability for a specific event. Therefore, identifying the best-suited nomogram for each setting seems of great interest to the patient and provider.

Objectives

To identify, summarize and compare postoperative UTUC nomograms predicting oncologic outcomes. To estimate the overall performance of the nomograms and identify the most reliable predictors. To create a reference tool for postoperative UTUC nomograms, physicians can use in clinical practice.

Design

A systematic review was conducted following the recommendations of Cochrane’s Prognosis Methods Group. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched for studies published before December 2021. Nomograms were grouped according to outcome measurements, the purpose of use, and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to estimate nomogram group performance and predictor reliability. Reference tables summarizing the nomograms’ important characteristics were created.

Results

The systematic review identified 26 nomograms. Only four were externally validated. Study heterogeneity was significant, and the overall Risk of Bias (RoB) was high. Nomogram groups predicting overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and intravesical recurrence (IVR) had moderate discrimination accuracy (c-Index summary estimate with 95% confidence interval [95% CI] and prediction interval [PI] > 0.6). Nomogram groups predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) had good discrimination accuracy (c-Index summary estimate with 95% CI and PI > 0.7). Advanced pathological tumor stage (≥ pT3) was the most reliable predictor of OS. Pathological tumor stage (≥ pT2), age, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were the most reliable predictors of CSS. LVI was the most reliable predictor of RFS.

Conclusions

Despite a moderate to good discrimination accuracy, severe heterogeneity discourages the uninformed use of postoperative prognostic UTUC nomograms. For nomograms to become of value in a generalizable population, future research must invest in external validation and assessment of clinical utility. Meanwhile, this systematic review serves as a reference tool for physicians choosing nomograms based on individual needs.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=282596, identifier PROSPERO [CRD42021282596].

Is Lymph Node Dissection Necessary During Radical Nephroureterectomy for Clinically Node-Negative Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma? A Multi-Institutional Study

Purpose

This study aimed to compare the oncological outcomes of patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) without clinical lymph node metastasis (cN0) undergoing lymph node dissection (LND) during radical nephroureterectomy (NU).

Methods

From the updated data of the Taiwan UTUC Collaboration Group, a total of 2726 UTUC patients were identified. We only include patients with ≥ pT2 stage and enrolled 658 patients. The Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox proportional hazards model were used to analyze overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), disease-free survival (DFS), and bladder recurrence-free survival (BRFS) in LND (+) and LND (−) groups.

Results

A total of 658 patients were included and 463 patients without receiving LND and 195 patients receiving LND. From both univariate and multivariate survival analysis, there are no significant difference between LND (+) and LND (-) group in survival rate. In LND (+) group, 18.5% patients have pathological LN metastasis. After analyzing pN+ subgroup, it revealed worse CSS (p = 0.010) and DFS (p &lt; 0.001) compared with pN0 patients.

Conclusions

We found no significant survival benefit related to LND in cN0 stage, ≥ pT2 stage UTUC, irrespective of the number of LNs removed, although pN+ affected cancer prognosis. However, from the result of pN (+) subgroup of LND (+) cohort analysis, it may be reasonable to not perform LND in patients with cT2N0 stage due to low positive predictive value of pN (+). In addition, performing LND may be considered for ureter cancer, which tends to cause lymphatic and hematogenous tumor spreading. Further large prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

Elevated Pre-Treatment Serum MMP-7 Levels Are Associated with the Presence of Metastasis and Poor Survival in Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a rare cancer with a barely predictable clinical behaviour. Serum MMP-7 is a validated prognostic marker in urothelial bladder cancer, a tumour entity with large clinical, histological, and molecular similarity to UTUC. The serum MMP-7 levels have not yet been investigated in UTUC. In the present study, we determined MMP-7 concentrations in an overall number of 103 serum samples from 57 UTUC patients who underwent surgical or systemic (platinum or immune checkpoint inhibitor) therapy by using the ELISA method. In addition to pre-treatment samples, the serum samples collected at predefined time points after or during therapy were also investigated. Serum MMP-7 concentrations were correlated with clinicopathological and follow-up data. Our results revealed significantly, two-fold elevated pre-treatment serum MMP-7 levels in metastatic cases of UTUC in both the radical surgery- and the chemotherapy-treated cohorts (p = 0.045 and p = 0.040, respectively). In addition, high serum MMP-7 levels significantly decreased after radical surgery, and high pre-treatment MMP-7 concentrations were associated with shorter survival both in the surgery- and chemotherapy-treated cohorts (p = 0.029 and p = 0.001, respectively). Our results revealed pre-treatment serum MMP-7 as a prognostic marker for UTUC, which may help to improve preoperative risk-stratification and thereby improve therapeutic decision-making.

Prognostic value of hematological pre-albumin to fibrinogen ratio in patients with glioma

OBJECTIVE

Hematological biomarkers that reflect host nutritional and inflammation status have been identified to be independent prognostic factors in various malignancies. The aim of the present study was to determine the predictive value of preoperative albumin (ALB), fibrinogen (FIB), pre-albumin (pALB), Albumin to fibrinogen ratio (AFR) and pre-albumin to fibrinogen ratio (PFR) for the prognosis of patients with glioma.

METHOD

X-tile software was used to identify cut-off values of these parameters. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, univariate and multivariate analyses based on Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to determine whether these markers were associated with the prognosis of patients with glioma. In addition, the Harrell concordance index with variables was used to evaluate the prognostic accuracy.

RESULTS

The results indicated that PFR (HR = 2.827, 95% CI: 1.353-6.122, p = 0.006) is the only independent prognostic factor in patients of glioma along with clinicopathological grade and age. C-index of predicted nomogram including PFR (0.719) for glioma patients was higher than that without PFR (0.699).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrated that circulating preoperative PFR might be a potential negative independent prognostic biomarker for glioma individuals.

Differences in genomic profile of high-grade urothelial carcinoma according to tumor location

OBJECTIVES

To establish targeted therapies based on the molecular landscape in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), we tried to investigate the molecular characteristics of UTUC compared with those of bladder urothelial carcinoma (BLUC) by next-generation sequencing (NGS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We selected 71 high-grade infiltrating urothelial carcinoma tissue specimens from 33 UTUC and 38 BLUC patients. NGS analysis was performed with the Illumina TruShigt Oncology-500 panel.

RESULTS

Both UTUC and BLUC showed similar clinicopathologic characteristics, as well as morphologic similarities. The median tumor mutation burden (TMB) of all cases was 7.8 mutations/Mb. The majority of alterations were missense mutations. TP53 (40/71, 56.3%), KDM6A (30/71, 42.3%), and TERT promoter mutations (23/71, 32.4%) were observed regardless of tumor location. Compared with UTUC, BLUC showed frequent mutations in several genes: ARID1A (P = 0.001), ASXL1 (P = 0.017), ERBB3 (P = 0.005), PRKDC (P = 0.004) and RB1 (P = 0.041). On the contrary, copy number loss of FGFR3 was observed more in UTUC than BLUC (P = 0.018). Also, 6 cases showed oncogenic fusions: 3 cases with FGFR2 fusion in UTUC and 3 cases with FGFR3-TACC3 fusion in BLUC.

CONCLUSION

Despite the small cohort size, we identified genetic differences between UTUC and BLUC in Korean patients by NGS. An understanding of the comprehensive molecular characteristics of UTUC and BLUC may be helpful in detecting candidates for targeted therapy.

Multimodal kidney‐preserving approach in localised and locally advanced high‐risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Objectives

Multimodal kidney‐preserving (MKP) strategies may be an option for patients with localised or locally advanced high‐risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) who have a relative contraindication for nephroureterectomy (NU).

Materials and methods

We studied patients with UTUC who were managed with MKP strategies, consisting of systemic anticancer therapy, with or without local/topical strategies after endoscopic control of intraluminal tumours. Primary end points were overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS).

Results

Fourteen patients received MKP treatment between August 2013 and April 2020. Median baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was 43 mL/min/1.73m². MKP was mainly pursued to avoid dialysis (10/14, 71%), followed by low performance status and/or comorbidities (2/14, 14%). All patients had received systemic therapy: chemotherapy (64%) and immunotherapy (36%). Endoscopic control and/or laser ablation was feasible in 7 (50%) patients. Calculated overall risk of non‐organ confined disease was 35%. Predicted 2‐year and 5‐year relapse‐free probability (RFP) was 74% (24–92%) and 62% (10–85%), respectively. Median follow‐up was 31 months (95% CI: 22.6, NE), median OS was 48.1 months (95% CI: 48.1, NE) and 2‐year OS probability was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.71, 1). Median metastases‐free survival was 48.1 months (95% CI: 26.8, NE), median PFS was 22.4 months (95% CI: 15.6, NE) and 2‐year PFS probability was 0.48 (0.26, 0.89).

Conclusion

Management of high‐risk localised or locally advanced UTUC with MKP strategies was associated with good tolerance, preservation of renal function, and comparable PFS and OS to predicted in vulnerable patients. Prospective studies with more patients are needed to evaluate these possible benefits relative to current standards.

Concomitant carcinoma in situ is an independent prognostic predictor for patients with localized lymph node–negative upper-tract urothelial carcinoma undergoing nephroureterectomy

Purpose:

This study aimed to determine the predictive value of concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS) for cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with upper-tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) undergoing radical nephroureterectomy.

Methods:

This was a retrospective analysis of the clinicopathological features in a cohort of 126 patients with localized lymph node–negative UTUC who underwent radical nephroureterectomy with bladder-cuff excision in a tertiary medical center between January 1, 2007, and June 30, 2018. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for CSS in UTUC. Additionally, Kaplan–Meier analyses were performed in subgroups according to pathological tumor stage.

Results:

The median age and follow-up duration were 70 years and 3.5 years, respectively. Concomitant CIS, which was present in 21% of the patient specimens, was not associated with most clinical or pathological features, except for lymphovascular invasion and multifocality. Concomitant CIS (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=4.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.78–12.06, p=0.002) and pathological tumor stage (adjusted HR=4.07, 95% CI 1.99–8.31, p<0.001) were significantly associated with CSS in the multivariate Cox regression model. In the subgroup analysis, concomitant CIS in patients with locally advanced (pT3/pT4) UTUC was associated with significantly worse CSS compared to those without CIS (HR=3.83, 95% CI 1.20–12.21).

Conclusion:

The pathological presence of concomitant CIS was independently associated with poor CSS in patients with localized lymph node–negative UTUC undergoing radical nephroureterectomy. These findings provide crucial information relevant for postoperative patient counseling, use of adjuvant therapy, follow-up intensity, and clinical trial enrollment.

Level of evidence

Level II.

Construction of a survival prediction model for high-and low -grade UTUC after tumor resection based on "SEER database": a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

There are differences in survival between high-and low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (UTUC). Our study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with high- and low-grade UTUC after tumor resection, and to explore the difference between high- and low-grade patients.

METHODS

Patients confirmed to have UTUC between 2004 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The UTUCs were identified and classified as high- and low-grade, and 1-, 3- and 5-year nomograms were established. The nomogram was then validated using the Chinese multicenter dataset (patients diagnosed in Shandong, China between January 2010 and October 2020).

RESULTS

In the high-grade UTUC patients, nine important factors related to survival after tumor resection were identified to construct nomogram. The C index of training dataset was 0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727-0.754), showing good calibration. The C index of internal validation dataset was 0.729(95% CI:0.707-0.750). On the other hand, Two independent predictors were identified to construct nomogram of low-grade UTUC. The C index was 0.714 (95% CI: 0.671-0.758) for the training set,0.731(95% CI:0.670-0.791) for the internal validation dataset. Encouragingly, the nomogram was clinically useful and had a good discriminative ability to identify patients at high risk.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the OS of patients with an initial diagnosis of high-and low-grade UTUC.

Outcome prediction following radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To predict overall survival, cancer, and metastasis specific survival in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All nonmetastatic UTUC patients who underwent RNU with a curative intent at 1 institution between December 1998 and January 2017 were included.  Detailed data were collected. End points for this study included OS, CCS, and MFS. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted. Log Rank tests and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated. Backward elimination and boot strapping was used to identify the most parsimonious model with the smallest number of variables in order to predict the outcomes of interest. A separate second institution data base was used for external validation.

RESULTS

There were 218 patients in the development cohort. Mean follow-up was 42 months (±39.6). There was 99 (45.4%) deaths, 28 (12.8%) cancer related deaths, 72 (33%) recurrences, and 54 (24.8%) metastases. The c-index for our model was 0.71 for OS, 0.72 for MFS and 0.74 for CSS. The nomograms did not show significant deviation from actual observations using our calibration plots. We divided the patient into 3 different groups (low, intermediate and high risk) based on their final total score for each outcome and compared them. On external validation our accuracy was 78.4%, 71.4%, and 75.3% for OS, CSS, and MFS survival respectively.

CONCLUSION

We designed a predictive model for survival outcomes following RNU in UTUC. This model uses simple, readily available data for patients without the need for expensive or additional testing.

Survival nomogram for patients with upper tract recurrence after resection for localized bladder urothelial carcinoma

Aim: To develop a survival nomogram for patients with upper tract recurrence (UTR) after resection for localized bladder urothelial carcinoma (BUC). Methods: The data of 361 patients with UTR after resection for BUC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were retrospectively analyzed. The nomogram was established using the Fine and Gray method and its predictive accuracy was assessed using the concordance index. The nomogram was calibrated by comparing the predicted and actual survival. Results: The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.746 (95% CI: 0.733-0.759). Excellent agreement was observed between the predicted and actual survival in all calibration plots. Conclusion: This study describes the first survival nomogram for patients experienced UTR after resection for BUC.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Prognosis of Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy

Objective

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients after nephrectomy.

Materials and Methods

In total, 488 patients with RCC who underwent nephrectomy at the Urology Department of the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2013 and December 2018 were randomly divided into a development cohort (n = 344) and a validation cohort (n = 144). The development cohort was used to build a prediction model, and the validation cohort was used for validation. Single-factor and multifactor analyses were carried out with R software, and the nomogram, calibration chart, ROC curve and C index were constructed.

Results

The median follow-up time of the development and validation cohorts was 34 months. The total 3-year and 5-year survival rates of the development cohort were 93.3% and 91.6%, respectively; those of the validation cohort were 92.4% and 91.0%, respectively. Cox univariate analysis of the development cohort showed that age, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), smoking history, type of surgery, T stage, N stage, M stage and Fuhrman nuclear grade were prognostic factors for OS in RCC patients undergoing nephrectomy. Cox multivariate analysis showed that T2DM, smoking history and T stage were independent prognostic factors for OS in RCC patients undergoing nephrectomy (P < 0.05). According to the univariate and multivariate analyses, a nomogram was constructed. In the development cohort, the C index of predicted OS was 0.875 (95% CI, 0.820-0.930). The calibration curve of the 3-year and 5-year survival rates showed that the predicted value of the nomogram was consistent with the actual observed value. The area under the 3-year and 5-year survival ROC curves was 0.861 and 0.901, respectively. In the validation cohort, the C index was 0.880 (95% CI, 0.778-0.982). The calibration curve of the 3-year and 5-year survival rates showed that the predicted value of the nomogram was consistent with the actual observed value. The area under the 3-year and 5-year survival ROC curves was 0.813 and 0.799, respectively.

Conclusion

We developed and verified a new and accurate nomogram with available clinicopathological data that can effectively predict the OS of RCC patients after nephrectomy.

Preoperative predictive model and nomogram for disease recurrence following radical nephroureterectomy for high grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma

PURPOSE

To identify preoperative risk factors for disease recurrence, following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), and to create a predictive nomogram.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on a multicenter database, we identified patients who underwent RNU due to high grade UTUC. Urothelial carcinoma of the bladder or contralateral UTUC was not considered as recurrence. Cox regression model was used to determine the effect of different preoperative variables as predictors of recurrence.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty-five patients were included in the analysis. The 2 and 5 years recurrence rates were 16.3% and 19.2%, respectively. Factors associated with recurrence on univariable analysis were sessile architecture hazard ratio (HR) 3.16 (95% CI, 1.38-7.26, P = 0.006), ≥cT3 disease HR 2.30 (95% CI, 1.12-4.72, P= 0.023), age >65 HR 2.02 (95% CI, 1.00-4.05, P= 0.048), Eastern Cooperative Group > 0 HR 1.98 (95% CI, 1.09-3.57, P= 0.023), hydronephrosis HR 1.93 (95% CI, 1.04-3.57, P= 0.035). Higher hemoglobin levels HR 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.96, P= 0.013) and preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 50 HR 0.48 (95% CI, 0.25-0.92, P = 0.028) were associated with lower probability for recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified sessile architecture as the only independent predictor of recurrence HR 2.52 (95% CI, 1.09-5.86, P= 0.0308). C-index of 0.71 was calculated for a predictive model including all variables in the multivariable analysis, indicating good predictive accuracy. A nomogram predicting 2 and 5 year recurrence free probability was developed accordingly.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a multicenter database, we developed a nomogram with good predictive accuracy for recurrence following RNU. This may serve as an aid in decision-making regarding the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Developing a prediction model for disease-free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population

Background

In this study, we aimed to propose a validated prediction model for disease‐free survival (DFS) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in a Korean population with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of 1561 cases of UTUC who underwent either open RNU (ONU, n = 906) or laparoscopic RNU (LNU, n = 615) from five tertiary Korean institutions between January 2000 and December 2012. Data were used to develop a prediction model using the Cox proportional hazards model. Prognostic factors were selected using the backward variable selection method. The prediction model performance was investigated using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and Hosmer‐Lemeshow type 2 statistics. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrap approach, and the National Cancer Center data set (n = 128) was used for external validation.

Results

A best‐fitting prediction model with seven significant factors was developed. The C‐index and two Hosmer‐Lemeshow type statistics of the prediction model were 0.785 (95% CI, 0.755‐0.815), 4.810 (P = 0.8506), and 5.285 (P = 0.8088). The optimism‐corrected estimate through the internal validation was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.744‐0.804) and the optimism‐corrected calibration curve was close to the ideal line with mean absolute error = 0.012. In external validation, the discrimination was 0.657 (95% CI, 0.560‐0.755) and the two calibration statistics were 0.790 (P = 0.9397) and 3.103 (P = 0.5408), respectively.

Conclusion

A validated prediction model based on a large Korean RNU cohort was developed with acceptable performance to estimate DFS in patients with UTUC.

Development and external validation of a nomogram predicting prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma after radical nephroureterectomy

OBJECTIVE

To create multivariable models with readily available clinicopathologic variables for predicting the prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinomas (UTUC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients diagnosed as UTUC and underwent radical nephroureterectomy in 2 high volumes, tertiary care centers. A total of 445 patients and 227 patients met the inclusion criteria were included for constructing the prediction model and external validation, respectively. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze independent risk factors, and nomogram and calibration curve were constructed by R project.

RESULTS

The median follow-up for the development and external validation cohorts were 33.5 and 32.5 months, respectively. Multivariable analysis detected older age (≥65 years), with concurrent bladder cancer at diagnosis, with both ureter and renal pelvic tumor, lymphovascular invasion, urothelial carcinoma with divergent differentiation, higher pathological grade and stage, and positive lymph node were significantly associated with poorer outcome of UTUC. The c-index of the nomogram with these above-mentioned independent risk factors to predict the cancer specific survival was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64-0.84) and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.59-0.87) for the development cohort and external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and externally validated a novel and accurate nomogram with readily available clinicopathological information for predicting the cancer specific survival of UTUC. This nomogram could help clinicians stratify patients with UTUC into different risk groups with distinct prognosis by the total scores obtained from the prediction tool, thus facilitate decision-making and clinical trial designing.

Risk Stratification of Upper Urinary Tract Urothelial Carcinoma Patients for Survival Prediction: A Simple Summation Scoring Method

Purpose: To stratify upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients into risk groups in terms of 5-year survival.

Methods and materials: All potential UTUC patients recorded in our cancer registry database from 1997 to 2011 were evaluated for authentic presence of UTUC. Age at diagnosis, sex, organ involvement, dialysis, renal transplantation status, clinical stage, survival to the last follow-up, and the cause of death of each patient were recorded. All patients were randomized into a developmental set or a validation set at a 1:1 ratio. Survival prediction models and scores were developed using the developmental set and validated in terms of discrimination and calibration using the validation set. Patients were stratified into risk groups using the summed risk scores and their survival compared by the log rank test.

Results: We enrolled 1,120 authentic UTUC patients. In the developmental set, older age, male sex, and higher clinical staging were significant predictors of 5-year death after controlling for other variables. Based on these three clinical variables, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk groups using the summed risk scores. The 5-year all-cause and cancer-specific survivals of UTUC patients in the low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk groups were 83.0% and 85.0%, 57.7% and 70.9%, 16.8% and 26.3%, and 2.2% and 7.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). Both discrimination and calibration were good for the validation set (overall concordance index = 0.762).

Conclusions: Stratification of UTUC patients using summed risk scores was a simple and useful way to estimate survivals and to select appropriate treatments.

Tissue-based molecular markers in upper tract urothelial carcinoma and their prognostic implications

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a rare and aggressive disease that is associated with high rates of recurrence and death. Radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) with excision of the bladder cuff is considered the standard of care for high-risk UTUC, whereas kidney-sparing techniques can be indicated for select patients with low-risk disease. There is a significant lack of clinical and pathological prognostic factors for stratifying patients with regard to making treatment decisions. Incorporation of tissue-based molecular markers into prognostic tools could help accurately stratify patients for clinical decision-making in this heterogeneous disease. Although the number of studies on tissue-based markers in UTUC has risen dramatically in the past several years-many of which are based on single centers and small cohorts, with a low level of evidence-many discrepancies remain between their results. Nevertheless, certain biomarkers are promising tools, necessitating prospective multi-institution studies to validate their function.

Prognostic value of preoperative plasma fibrinogen level and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (F-PLR) in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Purpose

Hemostatic factors is thought to have a potentially significant role in progression and metastasis of malignant tumors. We investigated the prognostic value of preoperative plasma fibrinogen level and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

Materials and Methods

A total of 481 patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy for localized UTUC (pTa-4N0M0) were identified between January 2002 and June 2013. Patients were assigned a F-PLR score of 0, 1, or 2 based upon the presence of elevated plasma fibrinogen level, an elevated PLR, or both. The association between F-PLR score and clinicopathological variables was analysed.

Results

The optimal cut-off value of plasma fibrinogen and PLR for overall survival stratification was determined to be 4.22 and 241.2. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed significant differences in cancer specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with F–PLR scores of 0, 1 and 2. Multivariate analysis identified higher F–PLR score as an independent risk factor for CSS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The estimated c-index of the multivariate model for CSS and OS increased from 0.772 and 0.756 to 0.799 and 0.784 when F–PLR score added, which was higher than fibrinogen level, PLR or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio added.

Conclusions

Preoperative F-PLR score is a negative independent prognostic factor for survival outcomes in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Preoperative F-PLR score may become a useful biomarker, particularly because of its low associated cost and easy accessibility.

Preoperative serum pre-albumin as an independent prognostic indicator in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma after radical nephroureterectomy

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic value of preoperative pre-albumin and albumin level in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) undergoing radical nephroureterectomy.

Methods and Materials

Between January 2003 and June 2013, we evaluated data on 425 patients with nonmetastatic UTUC (Ta-4N0/+M0) who underwent radical nephroureterectomy at our institution. Low pre-albumin level was defined as <20 mg/dl, while hypoalbuminemia was defined as albumin <35 g/L. The associations of preoperative low pre-albumin level and hypoalbuminemia with clinical and pathologic variables were assessed. Univariable and multivariable analyses using the Cox regression model were performed to determine prognostic factors that were associated with cancer specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). The Harrell concordance index with variables only or combined pre-albumin data were used to evaluate the prognostic accuracy.

Results

Compared with patients with high pre-albumin level, patients with low pre-albumin level were more likely to have older age, higher tumor stage, higher rate of diabetes, regional lymph node metastasis and lymphovascular invasion. Meanwhile, hypoalbuminemia was only associated with diabetes. Multivariate analysis identified decreased preoperative pre-albumin level as an independent prognostic factor for CSS (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-3.00, p=0.013) and OS (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.12-2.70, p=0.015), but not preoperative hypoalbuminemia. The estimated c-index of the multivariate model for CSS and OS increased from 0.771 and 0.760 without pre-albumin to 0.775 and 0.765 when pre-albumin added.

Conclusions

Low preoperative pre-albumin level but not preoperative hypoalbuminemia is a negative independent prognostic factor for survival outcome in patients with UTUC undergoing radical nephroureterectomy.

Caveolin-1 Expression in Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Improvement in postoperative risk stratification of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is required to better predict outcomes and counsel patients on adjuvant treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To validate the association between caveolin-1 and oncological outcomes in patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for UTUC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Caveolin-1 expression was evaluated via immunochemistry on a tissue microarray from 621 patients. Caveolin-1 was considered overexpressed when at least 50% of the tumor cells stained positive. The median follow-up in this retrospective study was 35 mo (interquartile range 16-65).

INTERVENTION

Radical nephroureterectomy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between caveolin-1 expression and recurrence and cancer-specific mortality (CSM).

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Caveolin-1 was overexpressed in 150 patients (24%). Overexpression was associated with higher pathological stage (p<0.001) and grade (p<0.001). In univariate analyses, overexpression of caveolin-1 was significantly associated with lower recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-2.6; p=0.004) and CSM (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7; p=0.005); however, multivariable analyses did not prove its independent association with outcomes. The study is limited by its retrospective nature.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite overexpression in a quarter of UTUC patients, caveolin-1 was not independently associated with oncological outcomes. Its use could be evaluated to improve clinical staging of biopsy specimens and to help in clinical decision-making regarding a kidney-sparing approach or neoadjuvant systemic treatment.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Development of a panel of prognostic and predictive markers is mandatory for patient consultations in the era of personalized medicine. We evaluated the role of caveolin-1 in a large series of patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) and found that it was not independently associated with oncological outcomes. Nevertheless, it was associated with adverse pathological features. Considering caveolin-1 in UTUC biopsy specimens could help in improving clinical staging and decision-making regarding a kidney-sparing approach or neoadjuvant systemic treatment.

Predictive models and prognostic factors for upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a comprehensive review of the literature

In the context of customized patient care for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), decision-making could be facilitated by risk assessment and prediction tools. The aim of this study was to provide a critical overview of existing predictive models and to review emerging promising prognostic factors for UTUC. A literature search of articles published in English from January 2000 to June 2016 was performed using PubMed. Studies on risk group stratification models and predictive tools in UTUC were selected, together with studies on predictive factors and biomarkers associated with advanced-stage UTUC and oncological outcomes after surgery. Various predictive tools have been described for advanced-stage UTUC assessment, disease recurrence and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Most of these models are based on well-established prognostic factors such as tumor stage, grade and lymph node (LN) metastasis, but some also integrate newly described prognostic factors and biomarkers. These new prediction tools seem to reach a high level of accuracy, but they lack external validation and decision-making analysis. The combinations of patient-, pathology- and surgery-related factors together with novel biomarkers have led to promising predictive tools for oncological outcomes in UTUC. However, external validation of these predictive models is a prerequisite before their introduction into daily practice. New models predicting response to therapy are urgently needed to allow accurate and safe individualized management in this heterogeneous disease.

Prognostic serum markers in patients with high-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The role of preoperative serum-based markers in predicting survival outcomes of patients has been reported for several cancer types; however, their association with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) prognosis is unclear. We evaluated the role of systemic serum-based markers in predicting adverse pathological features and survival outcomes in patients surgically treated for high-grade (HG) UTUC.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all patients undergoing surgery for HG UTUC between June 2006 and July 2013 at our institution. Comprehensive clinicopathologic data and preoperative serum-based markers including hemoglobin, white blood cell count, platelet count, serum albumin, calcium, and liver function tests were recorded. Associations of serum markers with pathologic features and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were determined by logistic and Cox regression analyses, respectively. The concordance index for the oncologic outcomes model was determined.

RESULTS

In total, 101 patients were identified with a median follow-up of 18.5 months (range: 1-74mo). In all, 60% of patients had pT2 or less and 11% had nodal metastases. Preoperative elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≥116IU/l) was associated with multiple adverse pathologic features including advanced T stage, lymphovascular invasion, and histologic necrosis. On univariate analysis, serum markers independently associated with RFS included hemoglobin≤12.9 (hazards ratio [HR] = 2.51; 95% CI: 1.17-5.36, P = 0.018), albumin≤4g/dl (HR = 4.4; 95% CI: 2.04-9.30; P<0.0001), ALP≥116U/l (HR = 13.3; 95% CI: 5.3-33.52, P<0.0001), alanine transaminase≥27 (HR = 2.63, 95% CI: 1.11-6.21, P = 0.028), serum aspartate transaminase≥20 (HR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.04-4.69, P = 0.038), and corrected calcium≥9.3 (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.01-5.93, P = 0.047). The 2 strongest predictors, albumin and ALP, were combined to form an AA score (range: 0-2), which improved the baseline preoperative clinical model concordance index for prediction of RFS from 0.626 to 0.799.

CONCLUSION

In HG UTUC, elevated preoperative ALP was associated with adverse pathologic features. Additionally, elevated ALP and low albumin were independently associated with worse RFS and overall survival. These serum-based markers are often measured in the preoperative workup of UTUC, and thus they can be included in future prognostic models to risk stratify patients.

Promising role of preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy

Objective

Several retrospective studies with small cohorts reported neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a prognostic marker in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). We aimed at validating the predictive and prognostic role of NLR in a large multi-institutional cohort.

Methods

Preoperative NLR was assessed in a multi-institutional cohort of 2477 patients with UTUC treated with RNU. Altered NLR was defined by a ratio >2.7. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between NLR and lymph node metastasis, muscle-invasive and non-organ-confined disease. The association of altered NLR with recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results

Altered NLR was observed in 1428 (62.8 %) patients and associated with more advanced pathological tumor stage, lymph node metastasis, lymphovascular invasion, tumor necrosis and sessile tumor architecture. In a preoperative model that included age, gender, tumor location and architecture, NLR was an independent predictive factor for the presence of lymph node metastasis, muscle-invasive and non-organ-confined disease (p < 0.001). Within a median follow-up of 40 months (IQR 20–76 months), 548 (24.1 %) patients experienced disease recurrence and 453 patients (19.9 %) died from their cancer. Compared to patients with normal NLR, those with altered NLR had worse RFS (0.003) and CSS (p = 0.002). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effects of standard clinicopathologic features, altered NLR did not retain an independent value. In the subgroup of patients treated with lymphadenectomy in addition to RNU, NLR was independently associated with CSS (p = 0.03).

Conclusion

In UTUC, preoperative NLR is associated with adverse clinicopathologic features and independently predicts features of biologically and clinically aggressive UTUC such as lymph node metastasis, muscle-invasive or non-organ-confined status. NLR may help better risk stratify patients with regard to lymphadenectomy and conservative therapy.

Genomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Stage and Prognosis of Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Genomic characterization of radical nephroureterectomy specimens in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma may allow for thoughtful integration of systemic and targeted therapies. We sought to determine whether genomic alterations in upper tract urothelial carcinoma are associated with adverse pathological and clinical outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Next generation exon capture sequencing of 300 cancer associated genes was performed in 83 patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Genomic alterations were assessed individually and also grouped into core signal transduction pathways or canonical cell functions for association with clinicopathological outcomes. Binary outcomes, including grade (high vs low), T stage (pTa/T1/T2 vs pT3/T4) and organ confined status (pT2 or less and N0/Nx vs greater than pT2 or N+) were assessed with the Kruskal-Wallis and Fisher exact tests as appropriate. Associations between alterations and survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of the 24 most commonly altered genes in 9 pathways TP53/MDM2 alterations and FGFR3 mutations were the only 2 alterations uniformly associated with high grade, advanced stage, nonorgan confined disease, and recurrence-free and cancer specific survival. TP53/MDM2 alterations were associated with adverse clinicopathological outcomes whereas FGFR3 mutations were associated with favorable outcomes. We created a risk score using TP53/MDM2 and FGFR3 status that was able to discriminate between adverse pathological and clinical outcomes, including in the subset of patients with high grade disease. The study is limited by small numbers and lack of validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that specific genomic alterations in radical nephroureterectomy specimens correlate with tumor grade, stage and cancer specific survival outcomes.

Prognostic factors of recurrent disease in upper urinary tract urothelial cancer after radical nephroureterectomy: Subanalysis of the multi-institutional national database of the Japanese Urological Association

OBJECTIVES

To explore predictive factors of disease recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy in patients with upper urinary tract urothelial cancer.

METHODS

A multi-institutional national database promoted by the Japanese Urological Association including 293 institutions and 1172 patients was used for the present study. Patient with non-metastatic upper urinary tract urothelial cancer who underwent primary radical nephroureterectomy with curative intent were analyzed. Univariate analysis using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression models with stepwise selection was used to evaluate time to recurrence after surgery.

RESULTS

The median duration of follow up was 55.8 months, and disease recurred in 325 (27.7%) patients at a median of 11.4 months after radical nephroureterectomy. According to a Cox proportional hazards model, the Union International Contre le Cancer 2002 pathological stage of the primary tumor, lymph node status, presence of lymphatic and/or vascular invasion, infiltrative growth pattern, and age were independent predictors (P < 0.05) of recurrence-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite several limitations, our analysis suggests that pathological tumor stage, lymph node status, lymphovascular invasion, infiltrative growth pattern and age represent important prognostic variables after radical nephroureterectomy in Japanese patients with upper urinary tract urothelial cancer. This information could be potentially used to select patients for adjuvant systemic therapy.

Validation of the pretreatment derived neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic factor in a European cohort of patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The value of a combined index of neutrophil and white cell counts, named derived neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR), has recently been proposed as a prognosticator of survival in various cancer types. We investigated the prognostic role of the dNLR in a large European cohort of patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

METHODS

Data from 171 non-metastatic UTUC patients, operated between 1990 and 2012 at a single tertiary academic centre, were evaluated retrospectively. Cancer-specific- (CSS) as well as overall survival (OS) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To evaluate the independent prognostic significance of the dNLR, multivariate proportional Cox-regression models were applied. Additionally, the influence of the dNLR on the predictive accuracy of the multivariate model was further determined by Harrell's concordance index (c-index).

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 31 months. An increased dNLR was statistically significantly associated with shorter CSS (log-rank P=0.004), as well as with shorter OS (log-rank P=0.002). Multivariate analysis identified dNLR as an independent predictor for CSS (hazard ratio, HR=1.16, 95% confidence interval, CI=1.01-1.35, P=0.045), as well as for OS (HR=1.21, 95% CI=1.09-1.34, P<0.001). The estimated c-index of the multivariate model for OS was 0.68 without dNLR and 0.73 when dNLR was added.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a high pretreatment dNLR could be predicted to show subsequently higher cancer-specific- as well as overall mortality after surgery for UTUC compared with those with a low pretreatment dNLR. Thus, this combined index should be considered as a potential prognostic biomarker in future.

Rationale and timing of perioperative chemotherapy for upper-tract urothelial carcinoma

Radical surgery alone for high-risk upper-tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is often inadequate for long-term cancer control. Numerous studies implicate failure presumably attributable to metastatic disease. Therefore, multimodal therapy by way of perioperative chemotherapy is integral to improve cancer outcomes and disease-specific survival. Despite this apparent reality, there is lack of consensus regarding which patients will need additional therapy, optimal timing for delivery of agents, and specific regimens to be utilized. Progress is being made, however, to explore these issues both by extrapolation from the bladder cancer literature as well as studying outcomes from retrospective UTUC series. Prospectively accruing studies for both neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy will likely mature in the next 5 years thereby providing higher level data to better guide standard of care.

Predictive value of clinicopathological markers for the metachronous bladder cancer and prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is rare but aggressive with poor prognosis. We aimed to find effective predictive markers for recurrence and prognosis in UTUC patients. In this retrospective study, we included 88 UTUC patients treated with radical neprhoureterectomy (RNU) and analyzed their clinicopathological parameters. For study of incidence of metachronous bladder tumor, models were adjusted with inclusion of prophylactic intravesical instillation chemotherapy. The mean follow-up was 28.59 months (2 to 82 mo). Lack of gross hematuria (RR 0.060, 95%CI 0.008–0.468), tumor located at ureter (RR 0.037, 95%CI 0.004–0.378), advanced stage and higher p53 expression were independent factors for worse survival. Recurrence of bladder cancer occurred 20% of patients at median follow-up of 37.65 months (5 to 82 mo). Higher tumor grade (RR 5.998, 95%CI 1.359–26.479) and presence of ipsilateral non-functioning kidney at diagnosis (RR 5.982, 95%CI 1.338–26.750) were predictors for recurrence. The present study identified several parameters with predictive value in the prognosis and intravesicle recurrence in UTUCand shed light on the better monitoring and management of the disease.

Validation of pretreatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic factor in a European cohort of patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential prognostic significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in a large European cohort of patients with upper urinary tract urothelial cell carcinoma (UUT-UCC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated data from 202 consecutive patients with non-metastatic upper urinary tract urothelial cell carcinoma (UUT-UCC), who underwent surgery between 1990 and 2012 at a single tertiary academic centre. Patients' cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To evaluate the independent prognostic significance of the NLR, multivariate proportional Cox regression models were applied for both endpoints.

RESULTS

A higher NLR was significantly associated with shorter CSS (P = 0.002, log-rank test), as well as with shorter OS (P < 0.001, log-rank test). Multivariate analysis identified a high NLR as an independent prognostic factor for patients' CSS (hazard ratio 2.72, 95% CI 1.25-5.93, P = 0.012), and OS (hazard ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.31-4.70, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present cohort, patients with a high preoperative NLR had higher cancer-specific and overall mortality after radical surgery for UUT-UCC, compared with those with a low preoperative NLR. This easily identifiable laboratory measure should be considered as an additional prognostic factor in UUT-UCC in future.

External validation of an online nomogram in patients undergoing radical nephroureterectomy for upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

Background:

The objective was to validate an online nomogram developed based on the French collaborative national database on upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UUT-UC) using a different cohort.

Methods:

The study comprised 328 patients with UUT-UC who underwent radical nephroureterectomy. The discrimination of models was quantified using Harrell's concordance index. The relationship between the model-derived and actuarial cancer-specific mortality was graphically explored within calibration plots. Calibration was also assessed using the quartiles of the predicted survival at 3 and 5 years and calculation of the corresponding observed Kaplan–Meier estimates. Clinical net benefit was evaluated constructing decision curve analysis.

Results:

The discrimination accuracy of the nomograms at 3 and 5 years was 71.6% and 71.8%, respectively. Although nomograms discriminated well by Kaplan–Meier curves, and log-rank tests were all highly significant, the calibration plots tended to exaggerate the overestimation of mortality between predicted and observed probabilities at 3 and 5 years for survival. When compared with the AJCC/UICC staging system, the nomograms performed well across a wide range of threshold probabilities using decision curve analysis.

Conclusion:

The online nomogram is a highly accurate prognostic tool for patients with UUT-UC treated with radical nephroureterectomy. The model can provide an accurate estimate of the individual risk of cancer-specific mortality. Further improvement and implementation of novel molecular marker is needed.