Development of an ovarian cancer screening decision model that incorporates disease heterogeneity: implications for potential mortality reduction

Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is among the leading causes of gynecologic cancer-related death. Past ovarian cancer screening trials using combination of cancer antigen 125 testing and transvaginal ultrasound failed to yield statistically significant mortality reduction. Estimates of ovarian cancer sojourn time-that is, the period from when the cancer is first screen detectable until clinical detection-may inform future screening programs.

METHODS

We modeled ovarian cancer progression as a continuous time Markov chain and estimated screening modality-specific sojourn time and sensitivity using a Bayesian approach. Model inputs were derived from the screening arms (multimodal and ultrasound) of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trials. We assessed the quality of our estimates by using the posterior predictive P value. We derived histology-specific sojourn times by adjusting the overall sojourn time based on the corresponding histology-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

RESULTS

The overall ovarian cancer sojourn time was 2.1 years (posterior predictive P value = .469) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies, with 65.7% screening sensitivity. The sojourn time was 2.0 years (posterior predictive P value = .532) in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening's multimodal screening arm and 2.4 years (posterior predictive P value = .640) in the ultrasound screening arm, with sensitivities of 93.2% and 64.5%, respectively. Stage-specific screening sensitivities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies were 39.1% and 82.9% for early-stage and advanced-stage disease, respectively. The histology-specific sojourn times ranged from 0.8 to 1.8 years for type II ovarian cancer and 2.9 to 6.6 years for type I ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual screening is not effective for all ovarian cancer subtypes. Screening sensitivity for early-stage ovarian cancers is not sufficient for substantial mortality reduction.

The Influence of Inflammatory and Nutritional Status on the Long-Term Outcomes in Advanced Stage Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND

Despite improving surgical techniques and achieving more often complete debulking procedures, certain patients with advanced-stage ovarian cancer still have a very poor prognosis. The aim of the current paper is to investigate whether inflammatory and nutritional status can predict the long-term outcomes of ovarian cancer patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 57 cases diagnosed with advanced-stage ovarian cancer submitted to surgery as first intent therapy was carried out. In all cases, the preoperative status was determined by calculating the CRP/albumin ratio, as well as the Glasgow score, the modified Glasgow score and the prognostic nutritional index.

RESULTS

Patients presenting higher values of the CRP/albumin ratio, with a higher Glasgow score, modified Glasgow score and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), were more frequently associated with incomplete debulking surgery, a higher peritoneal carcinomatosis index and poorer overall survival (20 months versus 9 months for the CRP/albumin ratio p = 0.011, 42 versus 27 versus 12 months for the Glasgow score p = 0.042, 50 versus 19 versus 12 months for the modified Glasgow score, p = 0.001, and 54 months versus 21 months, p = 0.011 for the prognostic nutritional index).

CONCLUSIONS

A strong relationship between the nutritional and inflammatory status in advanced-stage ovarian cancer seems to exist.

Normal Risk Ovarian Screening Study: 21-Year Update

PURPOSE

The Normal Risk Ovarian Screening Study (NROSS) tested a two-stage screening strategy in postmenopausal women at conventional hereditary risk where significantly rising cancer antigen (CA)-125 prompted transvaginal sonography (TVS) and abnormal TVS prompted surgery to detect ovarian cancer.

METHODS

A total of 7,856 healthy postmenopausal women were screened annually for a total of 50,596 woman-years in a single-arm study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00539162). Serum CA125 was analyzed with the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) each year. If risk was unchanged and <1:2,000, women returned in a year. If risk increased above 1:500, TVS was undertaken immediately, and if risk was intermediate, CA125 was repeated in 3 months with a further increase in risk above 1:500 prompting referral for TVS. An average of 2% of participants were referred to TVS annually.

RESULTS

Thirty-four patients were referred for operations detecting 15 ovarian cancers and two borderline tumors with 12 in early stage (I-II). In addition, seven endometrial cancers were detected with six in stage I. As four ovarian cancers and two borderline tumors were diagnosed with a normal ROCA, the sensitivity for detecting ovarian and borderline cancer was 74% (17 of 23), and 70% of ROCA-detected cases (12 of 17) were in stage I-II. NROSS screening reduced late-stage (III-IV) disease by 34% compared with UKCTOCS controls and by 30% compared with US SEER values. The positive predictive value (PPV) was 50% (17 of 34) for detecting ovarian cancer and 74% (25 of 34) for any cancer, far exceeding the minimum acceptable study end point of 10% PPV.

CONCLUSION

While the NROSS trial was not powered to detect reduced mortality, the high specificity, PPV, and marked stage shift support further development of this strategy.

Advantages and Limitations of Ultrasound as a Screening Test for Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the seventh most common malignancy diagnosed among women, the eighth leading cause of cancer mortality globally, and the most common cause of death among all gynecological cancers. Even though recent advances in technology have allowed for more accurate radiological and laboratory diagnostic tests, approximately 60% of OC cases are diagnosed at an advanced stage. Given the high mortality rate of advanced stages of OC, early diagnosis remains the main prognostic factor. Our aim is to focus on the sonographic challenges in ovarian cancer screening and to highlight the importance of sonographic evaluation, the crucial role of the operator΄s experience, possible limitations in visibility, emphasizing the importance and the necessity of quality assurance protocols that health workers have to follow and finally increasing the positive predictive value. We also analyzed how ultrasound can be combined with biomarkers (ex. CA-125) so as to increase the sensitivity of early-stage OC detection or, in addition to the gold standard examination, the CT (Computed tomography) scan in OC follow-up. Improvements in the performance and consistency of ultrasound screening could reduce the need for repeated examinations and, mainly, ensure diagnostic accuracy. Finally, we refer to new very promising techniques such as liquid biopsies. Future attempts in order to improve screening should focus on the identification of features that are unique to OC and that are present in early-stage tumors.

Applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, and image biomarker discovery

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) and deep learning, has the potential to revolutionize biomedical research. Defined as the ability to "mimic" human intelligence by machines executing trained algorithms, AI methods are deployed for biomarker discovery.

OBJECTIVE

We detail the advancements and challenges in the use of AI for biomarker discovery in ovarian and pancreatic cancer. We also provide an overview of associated regulatory and ethical considerations.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review using PubMed and Google Scholar to survey the published findings on the use of AI in ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, and cancer biomarkers.

RESULTS

Most AI models associated with ovarian and pancreatic cancer have yet to be applied in clinical settings, and imaging data in many studies are not publicly available. Low disease prevalence and asymptomatic disease limits data availability required for AI models. The FDA has yet to qualify imaging biomarkers as effective diagnostic tools for these cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Challenges associated with data availability, quality, bias, as well as AI transparency and explainability, will likely persist. Explainable and trustworthy AI efforts will need to continue so that the research community can better understand and construct effective models for biomarker discovery in rare cancers.

Efficacy of an optimal ovarian cancer screening: a best-case scenario study based on real-world data

PURPOSE

To date, ovarian cancer screening in asymptomatic women has not shown a mortality benefit. The aim of this simulation study was to outline the impact of different histological subtypes on a potential stage-shift, achieved by screening.

METHODS

Real-world data were derived in the period of 2000-2017 from the Klinischen Tumorregister Austria. We estimated five-year overall survival (OS) of patients with ovarian cancer regarding different histological subtypes and FIGO stages. A theoretical model was generated predicting the trend of OS mediated by an eventual down-shifting of ovarian cancer from FIGO stage III/IV to FIGO stage I/II by screening, considering the influence of different histological subtypes.

RESULTS

3458 ovarian cancer patients were subdivided according to histological subtypes and FIGO classification. Major difference in distribution of histological types was found between FIGO stage I/II and III/IV. A theoretical down-shift of tumors from high to low FIGO stages based on our registry calculations showed that the five-year OS would increase from 50% to nearly 80% by perfect screening.

CONCLUSION

In our simulation study, we showed that down-shifting ovarian cancers by successful screening might increase OS by 30 percentage point. Our results underscore the importance to recognize ovarian cancer as a heterogenous disease with distinct epidemiologic, molecular and clinical features. The individual characteristic of each histotype is of utmost impact on the definition of screening aims and may influence early detection and stage-shift. Efficacy of screening is mainly dependent on detection of high-risk cancer types and not the slow growing low-grade types.

CA125 and Ovarian Cancer: A Comprehensive Review

Simple Summary

CA125 has been the most promising biomarker for screening ovarian cancer; however, it still does not have an acceptable accuracy in population-based screening for ovarian cancer. In this review article, we have discussed the role of CA125 in diagnosis, evaluating response to treatment and prognosis of ovarian cancer and provided some suggestions in improving the clinical utility of this biomarker in the early diagnosis of aggressive ovarian cancers. These include using CA125 to screen individuals with symptoms who seek medical care rather than screening the general population, increasing the cutoff point for the CA125 level in the plasma and performing the test at point-of-care rather than laboratory testing. By these strategies, we would detect more aggressive ovarian cancer patients in stages that the tumour can be completely removed by surgery, which is the most important factor in redusing recurrence rate and improving the survival of the patients with ovarian cancer.

Abstract

Ovarian cancer is the second most lethal gynecological malignancy. The tumour biomarker CA125 has been used as the primary ovarian cancer marker for the past four decades. The focus on diagnosing ovarian cancer in stages I and II using CA125 as a diagnostic biomarker has not improved patients’ survival. Therefore, screening average-risk asymptomatic women with CA125 is not recommended by any professional society. The dualistic model of ovarian cancer carcinogenesis suggests that type II tumours are responsible for the majority of ovarian cancer mortality. However, type II tumours are rarely diagnosed in stages I and II. The recent shift of focus to the diagnosis of low volume type II ovarian cancer in its early stages of evolution provides a new and valuable target for screening. Type II ovarian cancers are usually diagnosed in advanced stages and have significantly higher CA125 levels than type I tumours. The detection of low volume type II carcinomas in stage IIIa/b is associated with a higher likelihood for optimal cytoreduction, the most robust prognostic indicator for ovarian cancer patients. The diagnosis of type II ovarian cancer in the early substages of stage III with CA125 may be possible using a higher cutoff point rather than the traditionally used 35 U/mL through the use of point-of-care CA125 assays in primary care facilities. Rapid point-of-care testing also has the potential for effective longitudinal screening and quick monitoring of ovarian cancer patients during and after treatment. This review covers the role of CA125 in the diagnosis and management of ovarian cancer and explores novel and more effective screening strategies with CA125.

Biomarkers and Strategies for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer

Early detection of ovarian cancer remains an important unmet medical need. Effective screening could reduce mortality by 10%-30%. Used individually, neither serum CA125 nor transvaginal sonography (TVS) is sufficiently sensitive or specific. Two-stage strategies have proven more effective, where a significant rise above a woman's baseline CA125 prompts TVS and an abnormal sonogram prompts surgery. Two major screening trials have documented that this strategy has adequate specificity, but sensitivity for early-stage (I-II) disease must improve to have a greater impact on mortality. To improve the first stage, different panels of protein biomarkers have detected cases missed by CA125. Autoantibodies against TP53 have detected 20% of early-stage ovarian cancers 8 months before elevation of CA125 and 22 months before clinical diagnosis. Panels of autoantibodies and antigen-autoantibody complexes are being evaluated with the goal of detecting >90% of early-stage ovarian cancers, alone or in combination with CA125, while maintaining 98% specificity in control subjects. Other biomarkers, including micro-RNAs, ctDNA, methylated DNA, and combinations of ctDNA alterations, are being tested to provide an optimal first-stage test. New technologies are also being developed with greater sensitivity than TVS to image small volumes of tumor.See all articles in this CEBP Focus section, "NCI Early Detection Research Network: Making Cancer Detection Possible."

Upregulated CXCL14 is associated with poor survival outcomes and promotes ovarian cancer cells proliferation

Ovarian cancer is one of the common malignant tumours of female reproductive organs. Due to early diagnosis difficulties and lack of effective treatment in the late stage, ovarian cancer has the highest mortality rate in female reproductive system malignancies. Therefore, finding reliable early diagnosis indicators and new therapeutic targets for ovarian cancer is an urgent problem to be solved. Chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 14 (CXCL14) is a small cytokine belonging to the CXC chemokine family, which has been found to possess multi-effects in tumourigenesis and development. Here, we reported that CXCL14 was preferentially expressed in ovarian cancer. By analysing the TCGA database, we found that CXCL14 was highly expressed in advanced ovarian cancer patients and correlated with poor prognosis. In addition, the abnormal high CXCL14 levels were observed in serum and ovarian tissue of ovarian cancer patients by qRT-PCR and ELISA. In vitro and in vivo experiments both confirmed that overexpression of CXCL14 promoted the ovarian cancer cell proliferation. Moreover, transfection of CXCL14 increased the phosphorylation level of signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3), and administration of STAT3 inhibitor III inhibited the tumour-promoting effects of CXCL14. Therefore, our study suggests that CXCL14 could be utilised as a novel adjunct biomarker for early diagnosis of ovarian cancer and provides new targets and ideas for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer. SIGNIFICANCE PARAGRAPH: CXCL14 could be utilised as a novel adjunct biomarker for early diagnosis of ovarian cancer and provides new targets and ideas for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.

Human epididymis protein 4 antigen-autoantibody complexes complement cancer antigen 125 for detecting early-stage ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Early detection of ovarian cancer could significantly improve patient outcomes. Cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) is elevated in sera from approximately 60% of patients with early-stage (I/II) disease. Sensitivity might be improved through the combination of CA 125 with other biomarkers. Among potential biomarkers, antigen-autoantibody (Ag-AAb) complexes have received relatively little attention.

METHODS

Luminex-based immunoassays were used to measure human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), anti-HE4 autoantibody, and HE4 Ag-AAb complexes in sera from patients with early- (n = 73) and late-stage ovarian cancers (n = 49) at the time of diagnosis and from asymptomatic women with (n = 15) or without ovarian cancer (n = 212) enrolled in the Normal Risk Ovarian Cancer Screening Study.

RESULTS

At 98% specificity for healthy, asymptomatic women, 7% of patients with early-stage (I/II) ovarian cancer and 4% of patients with late-stage (III/IV) disease had elevated levels of HE4 autoantibody, whereas elevated levels of HE4 Ag-AAb complexes were detected in sera from 38% of early-stage cases and 31% of late-stage cases. Complementarity was observed in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves between HE4 Ag-AAb complexes and CA 125 levels in early-stage ovarian cancer (P < .001). CA 125 detected 63% of cases, and a combination of CA 125 and HE4 Ag-AAb complexes detected 81%. Complementarity was also observed in ROC curves for an independent validation set with 69 early-stage patients (P = .039). HE4 Ag-AAb complexes were detected in serial preclinical serum samples from women destined to develop ovarian cancer: they correlated with CA 125 but did not provide a lead time.

CONCLUSIONS

HE4 Ag-AAb complexes could complement CA 125 in detecting a higher fraction of early-stage ovarian cancers.

Estimating Cost-effectiveness of a Multimodal Ovarian Cancer Screening Program in the United States: Secondary Analysis of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Importance

The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is the largest randomized clinical trial to evaluate screening's impact on ovarian cancer mortality, assigning women to multimodal screening (MMS) with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) interpreted using a risk algorithm. If the MMS screening method is eventually shown to reduce mortality and be cost-effective, then it may be accepted by the medical community as a feasible screening tool.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of an MMS screening program in the United States.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A Markov simulation model was constructed using data from UKCTOCS to compare MMS with no screening in the United States. Screening would begin at the age of 50 years for women in the general population. Published estimates of the long-term effect of MMS screening on ovarian cancer mortality and the trial's published hazard ratios were used to simulate mortality estimates up to 40 years from start of screening. Base-case costs included CA-125, ultrasound, and false-positive work-up results, in addition to a risk algorithm cost estimate of $100. The utility and costs of ovarian cancer treatment were incorporated into the model.

Interventions

Screening strategies varied by costs of the algorithm and treatment for advanced ovarian cancer, rates of screening compliance, ovarian cancer incidence, and extrapolation of ovarian cancer mortality.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and mortality reduction of ovarian cancer screening.

Results

Multimodal screening is both more expensive and more effective in reducing ovarian cancer mortality over a lifetime than no screening. After accounting for uncertainty in the underlying parameters, screening women starting at age 50 years with MMS is cost-effective 70% of the time, when decision makers are willing to pay $150 000 per QALY. Screening reduced mortality by 15%, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranging from $106 187 (95% CI, $97 496-$127 793) to $155 256 (95% CI, $150 369-$198 567).

Conclusions and Relevance

Ovarian cancer screening is potentially cost-effective in the United States depending on final significance of mortality reduction and cost of the CA-125 risk algorithm. These results are limited by uncertainty around the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality beyond the 11 years of UKCTOCS.

Ovarian Cancer in Women of African Ancestry (OCWAA) consortium: a resource of harmonized data from eight epidemiologic studies of African American and white women

PURPOSE

Although the incidence rate of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is somewhat lower in African American (AA) than white women, survival is worse. The Ovarian Cancer in Women of African Ancestry (OCWAA) consortium will overcome small, study-specific sample sizes to better understand racial differences in EOC risk and outcomes.

METHODS

We harmonized risk factors and prognostic characteristics from eight U.S.

STUDIES

the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), the Los Angeles County Ovarian Cancer Study (LACOCS), the African American Cancer Epidemiology Study (AACES), the Cook County Case-Control Study (CCCCS), the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS), the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC), and the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS).

RESULTS

Determinants of disparities for risk and survival in 1,146 AA EOC cases and 2,922 AA controls will be compared to 3,368 white EOC cases and 10,270 white controls. Analyses include estimation of population-attributable risk percent (PAR%) by race.

CONCLUSION

OCWAA is uniquely positioned to study the epidemiology of EOC in AA women compared with white women to address disparities. Studies of EOC have been underpowered to address factors that may explain AA-white differences in the incidence and survival. OCWAA promises to provide novel insight into disparities in ovarian cancer.

Modeling in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Assessing External and Predictive Validity of MISCAN-Colon Microsimulation Model Using NORCCAP Trial Results

BACKGROUND

Microsimulation models are increasingly being used to inform colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations. MISCAN-Colon is an example of such a model, used to inform the Dutch CRC screening program and US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines. Assessing the validity of these models is essential to provide transparency regarding their performance. In this study, we tested the external and predictive validity of MISCAN-Colon.

METHODS

We validated MISCAN-Colon using the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) trial, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effectiveness of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening. We simulated the study population and design of the NORCCAP trial in MISCAN-Colon and compared 10- to 12-year model-predicted hazard ratios (HRs) for overall and distal CRC incidence and mortality to those observed. In addition, we compared the numbers of screen-detected neoplasia. Finally, we predicted the trial's future results to allow for the assessment of predictive validity.

RESULTS

MISCAN-Colon predicted an HR for overall CRC incidence (0.85), distal CRC incidence (0.82), overall CRC mortality (0.68), and distal CRC mortality (0.62). These were within the limits of the 95% confidence intervals of the NORCCAP trial results. Similar results were observed for the number of screen-detected cancers. The model significantly underestimated the number of screen-detected adenomas. Model-predicted HRs for CRC incidence and mortality up to 15- to 17-year follow-up were 0.84 and 0.72, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although the underestimation of screen-detected adenomas requires further investigation, MISCAN-Colon is able to make a valid replication of the CRC incidence and mortality reduction of an FS screening trial, which suggests that it can be considered a useful tool to support decision making on CRC screening.

Screening for ovarian cancer: imaging challenges and opportunities for improvement

The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) recently reported a reduction in the average overall mortality among ovarian cancer patients screened with an annual sequential, multimodal strategy that tracked biomarker CA125 over time, where increasing serum CA125 levels prompted ultrasound. However, multiple cases were documented wherein serum CA125 levels were rising, but ultrasound screens were normal, thus delaying surgical intervention. A significant factor which could contribute to false negatives is that many aggressive ovarian cancers are believed to arise from epithelial cells on the fimbriae of the fallopian tubes, which are not readily imaged. Moreover, because only a fraction of metastatic tumors may reach a sonographically-detectable size before they metastasize, annual screening with ultrasound may fail to detect a large fraction of early-stage ovarian cancers. The ability to detect ovarian carcinomas before they metastasize is critical and future efforts towards improving screening should focus on identifying unique features specific to aggressive, early-stage tumors, as well as improving imaging sensitivity to allow for detection of tubal lesions. Implementation of a three-stage multimodal screening strategy in which a third modality is employed in cases where the first-line blood-based assay is positive and the second-line ultrasound exam is negative may also prove fruitful in detecting early-stage cases missed by ultrasound.

Outcomes from ovarian cancer screening in the PLCO trial: Histologic heterogeneity impacts detection, overdiagnosis and survival

AIM

A mortality benefit from screening for ovarian cancer has never been demonstrated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the screening outcomes for different histologic subtypes of ovarian cancers.

METHODS

Women in the screening arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Screening Trial underwent CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound annually for 3-5 years. We compared screening test characteristics (including overdiagnosis) and outcomes by tumour type (type II versus other) and study arm (screening versus usual care).

RESULTS

Of 78,215 women randomised, 496 women were diagnosed with ovarian cancer. Of the tumours that were characterised (n = 413; 83%), 74% (n = 305) were type II versus 26% other (n = 108). Among screened patients, 70% of tumours were type II compared to 78% in usual care (p = 0.09). Within the screening arm, 29% of type II tumours were screen detected compared to 54% of the others (p < 0.01). The sensitivity of screening was 65% for type II tumours versus 86% for other types (p = 0.02). 15% of type II screen-detected tumours were stage I/II, compared to 81% of other tumours (p < 0.01). The overdiagnosis rate was lower for type II compared to other tumours (28.2% versus 72.2%; p < 0.01). Ovarian cancer-specific survival was worse for type II tumours compared to others (p < 0.01). Survival was similar for type II (p = 0.74) or other types (p = 0.32) regardless of study arm.

CONCLUSIONS

Test characteristics of screening for ovarian cancer differed for type II tumours compared to other ovarian tumours. Type II tumours were less likely to be screen diagnosed, early stage at diagnosis or overdiagnosed.

Ovarian cancer recurrence and early detection: may HE4 play a key role in this open challenge? A systematic review of literature

Despite the improvement in overall survival for ovarian cancer (OC) patients, a fraction of patients with advanced-stage disease fails to respond to primary therapy and relapses in 70% of cases. For this reason, new predictive and monitoring tools are needed to identify OC recurrence and new biomarkers were studied, among which human epididymis 4 (HE4), primarily expressed in the reproductive and respiratory tracts, is one of the most promising, reporting a good sensitivity and specificity in detecting OC, overcoming the traditional role of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA-125). In this review, we aim to discuss the latest evidence reported in the literature about the use of HE4 to monitor ovarian cancer treatment and to detect OC recurrence. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, IBECS, BIOSIS, Web of Science, SCOPUS, congress abstracts, and Grey literature (Google Scholar; British Library) from January 1952 to June 2017. The search identified seven papers in line with eligibility criteria for this systematic review; all of them demonstrated a good performance of HE4 in OC recurrence. The challenge to anticipate the diagnosis of OC recurrence and to translate this early diagnosis of relapse in a survival and quality of life improvement is still open, and as reported in this review, HE4 may play a key role in this scenario. More studies are needed to validate and reinforce the role of HE4 in ovarian cancer recurrence and in its early detection.

The role of biomarkers in the management of epithelial ovarian cancer

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in surgery and chemotherapy for ovarian cancer, 70% of women still succumb to the disease. Biomarkers have contributed to the management of ovarian cancer by monitoring response to treatment, detecting recurrence, distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses and attempting to detect disease at an earlier stage. Areas covered: This review focuses on recent advances in biomarkers and imaging for management of ovarian cancer with particular emphasis on early detection. Relevant literature has been reviewed and analyzed. Expert commentary: Rising or persistent CA125 blood levels provide a highly specific biomarker for epithelial ovarian cancer, but not an optimally sensitive biomarker. Addition of HE4, CA 72.4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies and other biomarkers can increase sensitivity for detecting early stage or recurrent disease. Detecting disease recurrence will become more important as more effective therapy is developed. Early detection will require the development not only of biomarker panels, but also of more sensitive and specific imaging strategies. Effective biomarker strategies are already available for distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses, but their use in identifying and referring patients with probable ovarian cancer to gynecologic oncologists for cytoreductive operations must be encouraged.

The role of biomarkers in the management of epithelial ovarian cancer

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in surgery and chemotherapy for ovarian cancer, 70% of women still succumb to the disease. Biomarkers have contributed to the management of ovarian cancer by monitoring response to treatment, detecting recurrence, distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses and attempting to detect disease at an earlier stage. Areas covered: This review focuses on recent advances in biomarkers and imaging for management of ovarian cancer with particular emphasis on early detection. Relevant literature has been reviewed and analyzed. Expert commentary: Rising or persistent CA125 blood levels provide a highly specific biomarker for epithelial ovarian cancer, but not an optimally sensitive biomarker. Addition of HE4, CA 72.4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies and other biomarkers can increase sensitivity for detecting early stage or recurrent disease. Detecting disease recurrence will become more important as more effective therapy is developed. Early detection will require the development not only of biomarker panels, but also of more sensitive and specific imaging strategies. Effective biomarker strategies are already available for distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses, but their use in identifying and referring patients with probable ovarian cancer to gynecologic oncologists for cytoreductive operations must be encouraged.

The role of biomarkers in the management of epithelial ovarian cancer

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in surgery and chemotherapy for ovarian cancer, 70% of women still succumb to the disease. Biomarkers have contributed to the management of ovarian cancer by monitoring response to treatment, detecting recurrence, distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses and attempting to detect disease at an earlier stage. Areas covered: This review focuses on recent advances in biomarkers and imaging for management of ovarian cancer with particular emphasis on early detection. Relevant literature has been reviewed and analyzed. Expert commentary: Rising or persistent CA125 blood levels provide a highly specific biomarker for epithelial ovarian cancer, but not an optimally sensitive biomarker. Addition of HE4, CA 72.4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies and other biomarkers can increase sensitivity for detecting early stage or recurrent disease. Detecting disease recurrence will become more important as more effective therapy is developed. Early detection will require the development not only of biomarker panels, but also of more sensitive and specific imaging strategies. Effective biomarker strategies are already available for distinguishing benign from malignant pelvic masses, but their use in identifying and referring patients with probable ovarian cancer to gynecologic oncologists for cytoreductive operations must be encouraged.

Ultrasound Monitoring of Extant Adnexal Masses in the Era of Type 1 and Type 2 Ovarian Cancers: Lessons Learned From Ovarian Cancer Screening Trials

Women that are positive for an ovarian abnormality in a clinical setting can have either a malignancy or a benign tumor with probability favoring the benign alternative. Accelerating the abnormality to surgery will result in a high number of unnecessary procedures that will place cost burdens on the individual and the health delivery system. Surveillance using serial ultrasonography is a reasonable alternative that can be used to discover if changes in the ovarian abnormality will occur that favor either a malignant or benign interpretation. Several ovarian cancer screening trials have had extensive experiences with changes in subclinical ovarian abnormalities in normal women that can define growth, stability or resolution and give some idea of the time frame over which changes occur. The present report examines these experiences and relates them to the current understanding of ovarian cancer ontology, presenting arguments related to the benefits of surveillance.

Mathematical models of breast and ovarian cancers

Women constitute the majority of the aging United States (US) population, and this has substantial implications on cancer population patterns and management practices. Breast cancer is the most common women's malignancy, while ovarian cancer is the most fatal gynecological malignancy in the US. In this review, we focus on these subsets of women's cancers, seen more commonly in postmenopausal and elderly women. In order to systematically investigate the complexity of cancer progression and response to treatment in breast and ovarian malignancies, we assert that integrated mathematical modeling frameworks viewed from a systems biology perspective are needed. Such integrated frameworks could offer innovative contributions to the clinical women's cancers community, as answers to clinical questions cannot always be reached with contemporary clinical and experimental tools. Here, we recapitulate clinically known data regarding the progression and treatment of the breast and ovarian cancers. We compare and contrast the two malignancies whenever possible in order to emphasize areas where substantial contributions could be made by clinically inspired and validated mathematical modeling. We show how current paradigms in the mathematical oncology community focusing on the two malignancies do not make comprehensive use of, nor substantially reflect existing clinical data, and we highlight the modeling areas in most critical need of clinical data integration. We emphasize that the primary goal of any mathematical study of women's cancers should be to address clinically relevant questions. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2016, 8:337-362. doi: 10.1002/wsbm.1343 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Systematic analysis and validation of differential gene expression in ovarian serous adenocarcinomas and normal ovary

PURPOSE

Cancer of the ovary confers the worst prognosis among women with gynecological malignancies, primarily because most ovarian cancers are diagnosed at late stage. Hence, there is a substantial need to develop new diagnostic biomarkers to enable detection of ovarian cancer at earlier stages, which would confer better prognosis. In addition, the identification of druggable targets is of substantial interest to find new therapeutic strategies for ovarian cancer.

METHODS

The expression of 22,500 genes in a series of 67 serous papillary carcinomas was compared with 9 crudely enriched normal ovarian tissue samples by RNA hybridization on oligonucleotide microarrays. Multiple genes with near-uniformly expression were elevated in carcinomas of varying grade and malignant potential, including several previously described genes (e.g., MUC-1, CD9, CD24, claudin 3, and mesothelin). We performed immunohistochemical staining with antibodies against several of the proteins encoded by differentially expressed genes in an independent cohort of 71 cases of paraffin-embedded ovarian cancer samples.

RESULTS

We found striking differences in EpCAM (p < 0.005), CD9 (p < 0.001), MUC-1 (p < 0.001), and claudin 3 proteins (p < 0.001) but not for mesothelin (p > 0.05) using the Mann-Whitney U test.

CONCLUSIONS

Protein expression of a majority of the differentially expressed genes tested was found to be elevated in ovarian carcinomas and, as such, define potential new biomarkers or targets.

Long-term survival of women with epithelial ovarian cancer detected by ultrasonographic screening

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of ultrasonographic screening on stage at detection and long-term disease-specific survival of women with epithelial ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Eligibility included all asymptomatic women aged 50 years and older and women aged 25 years and older with a documented family history of ovarian cancer. From 1987 to 2011, 37,293 women received annual ultrasonographic screening. Women with abnormal screens underwent tumor morphology indexing, serum biomarker analysis, and surgery.

RESULTS

Forty-seven invasive epithelial ovarian cancers and 15 epithelial ovarian tumors of low malignant potential were detected. No women with low malignant potential tumors experienced recurrent disease. Stage distribution for invasive epithelial cancers was: stage I, 22 (47%); stage II, 11 (23%); stage III, 14 (30%), and stage IV, 0 (0%). Follow-up varied from 2 months to 20.1 years (mean, 5.8 years). The 5-year survival rate for invasive epithelial ovarian cancers detected by screening was: stage I, 95%±4.8%; stage II, 77.1%±14.5%; and stage III, 76.2%±12.1%. The 5-year survival rate for all women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer detected by screening as well as interval cancers was 74.8%±6.6% compared with 53.7%±2.3% for unscreened women with ovarian cancer from the same institution treated by the same surgical and chemotherapeutic protocols (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

Annual ultrasonographic screening of asymptomatic women achieved increased detection of early-stage ovarian cancer cases and an increase in 5-year disease-specific survival rate for women with ovarian cancer.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

II.

A branching process model of ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at an advanced stage, rendering the possibility of cure unlikely. To date, no cost-effective screening test has proven effective for reducing mortality. To estimate the window of opportunity for ovarian cancer screening, we develop a branching process model for ovarian cancer growth and progression accounting for three cell populations: Primary (cells in the ovary or fallopian tube), Peritoneal (viable cells in peritoneal fluid), and Metastatic (cells implanted on other intra-abdominal surfaces). Growth and migration parameters were chosen to match results of clinical studies. Using these values, our model predicts a window of opportunity of 2.9 years, indicating that one would have to screen at least every other year to be effective. The model can be used to inform future efforts in designing improved screening and treatment strategies.

Ovarian cancer screening

Annual screening of asymptomatic postmenopausal women using a combination of transvaginal sonography and serum Ca-125 has been evaluated in 4 major clinical trials as a means to facilitate earlier detection of ovarian cancer. In several trials, screening has caused a decrease in stage at detection. These ovarian cancer screening trials are reviewed. The effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality varies in different trials and is the subject of further investigation.

Impact of screening test performance and cost on mortality reduction and cost-effectiveness of multimodal ovarian cancer screening

Ongoing ovarian cancer screening trials are investigating the efficacy of a two-step screening strategy using currently available blood and imaging tests [CA125 and transvaginal sonography (TVS)]. Concurrently, efforts to develop new biomarkers and imaging tests seek to improve screening performance beyond its current limits. This study estimates the mortality reduction, years of life saved, and cost-effectiveness achievable by annual multimodal screening using increasing CA125 to select women for TVS, and predicts improvements achievable by replacing currently available screening tests with hypothetical counterparts with better performance characteristics. An existing stochastic microsimulation model is refined and used to screen a virtual cohort of 1 million women from ages 45 to 85 years. Each woman is assigned a detailed disease course and screening results timeline. The preclinical behavior of CA125 and TVS is simulated using empirical data derived from clinical trials. Simulations in which the disease incidence and performance characteristics of the screening tests are independently varied are conducted to evaluate the impact of these factors on overall screening performance and costs. Our results show that when applied to women at average risk, annual screening using increasing CA125 to select women for TVS achieves modest mortality reduction (~13%) and meets currently accepted cost-effectiveness guidelines. Screening outcomes are relatively insensitive to second-line test performance and costs. Identification of a first-line test that does substantially better than CA125 and has similar costs is required for screening to reduce ovarian mortality by at least 25% and be reasonably cost-effective.

Longitudinal multistage model for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and CT detected indolent and aggressive cancers

It is currently not known whether most lung cancers detected by computerized tomography (CT) screening are aggressive and likely to be fatal if left untreated, or if a sizable fraction are indolent and unlikely to cause death during the natural lifetime of the individual. We developed a longitudinal biologically-based model of the relationship between individual smoking histories and the probability for lung cancer incidence, CT screen detection, lung cancer mortality, and other-cause mortality. The longitudinal model relates these different outcomes to an underlying lung cancer disease pathway and an effective other-cause mortality pathway, which are both influenced by the individual smoking history. The longitudinal analysis provides additional information over that available if these outcomes were analyzed separately, including testing if the number of CT detected and histologically-confirmed lung cancers is consistent with the expected number of lung cancers "in the pipeline". We assume indolent nodules undergo Gompertz growth and are detectable by CT, but do not grow large enough to contribute significantly to symptom-based lung cancer incidence or mortality. Likelihood-based model calibration was done jointly to data from 6878 heavy smokers without asbestos exposure in the control (placebo) arm of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET); and to 3,642 heavy smokers with comparable smoking histories in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS), a single-arm prospective trial of low-dose spiral CT screening for diagnosis of lung cancer. Model calibration was checked using data from two other single-arm prospective CT screening trials, the New York University Lung Cancer Biomarker Center (NYU) (n=1,021), and Moffitt Cancer Center (Moffitt) cohorts (n=677). In the PLuSS cohort, we estimate that at the end of year 2, after the baseline and first annual CT exam, that 33.0 (26.9, 36.9)% of diagnosed lung cancers among females and 7.0 (4.9,11.7)% among males were overdiagnosed due to being indolent cancers. At the end of the PLuSS study, with maximum follow-up of 5.8 years, we estimate that due to early detection by CT and limited follow-up, an additional 2.2 (2.0,2.4)% of all diagnosed cancers among females and 7.1 (6.7,8.0)% among males would not have been diagnosed in the absence of CT screening. We also find a higher apparent cure rate for lung cancer among CARET females than males, consistent with the larger indolent fraction of CT detected and histologically confirmed lung cancers among PLuSS females. This suggests that there are significant gender differences in the aggressiveness of lung cancer. Females may have an inherently higher proportion of indolent lung cancers than males, or aggressive lung cancers may be brought into check by the immune system more frequently among females than males.

Health economics of screening for gynaecological cancers

In this chapter, we summarise findings from recent cost-effectiveness analyses of screening for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer. We begin with a brief summary of key issues that affect the cost-effectiveness of screening, including disease burden, and availability and type of screening tests. For cervical cancer, we discuss the potential effect of human papilloma virus vaccines on screening. Outstanding epidemiological and cost-effectiveness issues are included. For cervical cancer, this includes incorporating the long-term effect of treatment (including adverse birth outcomes in treated women who are of reproductive age) into cost-effectiveness models using newly available trial data to identify the best strategy for incorporating human papilloma virus tests. A second issue is the need for additional data on human papilloma virus vaccines, such as effectiveness of reduced cancer incidence and mortality, effectiveness in previously exposed women and coverage. Definitive data on these parameters will allow us to update model-based analyses to include more realistic estimates, and also potentially dramatically alter our approach to screening. For ovarian cancer, outstanding issues include confirming within the context of a trial that screening is effective for reducing mortality and incorporating tests with high specificity into screening into screening algorithms for ovarian cancer.