Reappraisal of the prognostic significance of mitotic rate supports its reincorporation into the melanoma staging system

Could the mitotic count improve personalized prognosis in melanoma patients?

A number of studies have indicated that the mitotic rate may be a predictive factor for poor prognosis in melanoma patients. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the mitotic rate is associated with other prognostic clinical and anatomopathological characteristics. After adjusting for other anatomopathological characteristics, we then verified the prognostic value of the number of mitoses, determining in which population subgroup this variable may have greater prognostic significance on 3-year mortality. The Veneto Cancer Registry (Registro Tumori del Veneto-RTV), a high-resolution population-based dataset covering the regional population of approximately 4.9 million residents, served as the clinical data source for the analysis. Inclusion criteria included all incident cases of invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma recorded in the RTV in 2015 (1,050 cases) and 2017 (1,205 cases) for which the number of mitoses was available. Mitotic classes were represented by Kaplan-Meier curves for short-term overall survival. Cox regression calculated hazard ratios in multivariable models to evaluate the independent prognostic role of different mitotic rate cut-offs. The results indicate that the mitotic rate is associated with other survival prognostic factors: the variables comprising the TNM stage (e.g., tumor thickness, ulceration, lymph node status and presence of metastasis) and the characteristics that are not included in the TNM stage (e.g., age, site of tumor, type of morphology, growth pattern and TIL). Moreover, this study demonstrated that, even after adjusting for these prognostic factors, mitoses per mm2 are associated with higher mortality, particularly in T2 patients. In conclusion, these findings revealed the need to include the mitotic rate in the histological diagnosis because it correlates with the prognosis as an independent factor. The mitotic rate can be used to develop a personalized medicine approach in the treatment and follow-up monitoring of melanoma patients.

Predicting Recurrence-Free and Overall Survival for Patients With Stage II Melanoma: The MIA Calculator

PURPOSE

Improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) were demonstrated in two recent randomized trials for patients with sentinel node (SN)-negative stage IIB or IIC melanoma receiving adjuvant systemic therapy (pembrolizumab/nivolumab). However, adverse events also occurred. Accurate individualized prognostic estimates of RFS and overall survival (OS) would allow patients to more accurately weigh the risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy. Since the current American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition (AJCC-8) melanoma staging system focuses on melanoma-specific survival, we developed a multivariable risk prediction calculator that provides estimates of 5- and 10-year RFS and OS for these patients.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) database for patients diagnosed with stage II (clinical or pathological) melanoma (n = 3,220). Survival prediction models were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses (MIA models) and externally validated twice using data sets from the United States and the Netherlands. Each model's performance was assessed using C-statistics and calibration plots and compared with Cox models on the basis of AJCC-8 staging (stage models).

RESULTS

The 5-year and 10-year RFS C-statistics were 0.70 and 0.73 (MIA-model) versus 0.61 and 0.60 (stage-model), respectively. For OS, the 5-year and 10-year C-statistics were 0.71 and 0.75 (MIA-model) compared with 0.62 and 0.61 (stage-model), respectively. The MIA models were well calibrated and externally validated.

CONCLUSION

The MIA models offer accurate and personalized estimates of both RFS and OS in patients with stage II melanoma even in the absence of pathological staging with SN biopsy. These models were robust on external validations and may be used in everyday practice both with (ideally) and without performing SN biopsy to identify high-risk patients for further management strategies. An online tool will be available at the MIA website (Risk Prediction Tools).

Prognostic Significance of Incipient Ulceration in Primary Cutaneous Melanoma

Importance

Ulceration represents a key feature in cutaneous melanoma, contributing to staging according to the current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system. However, cases with incipient ulceration do not quite fulfill the AJCC definition of ulceration and are consequently classified as nonulcerated, presenting interpretive difficulty for pathologists. The prognostic implication of incipient ulceration is uncertain.

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic significance of incipient ulceration in cutaneous melanoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-control study consisted of resected primary cutaneous melanomas diagnosed between 2005 and 2015, identified from the Melanoma Institute Australia research database and with slides available for review at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital. Slides were reviewed by pathologists experienced in the diagnosis of melanocytic lesions to identify cases (incipient ulceration) and controls (ulcerated or nonulcerated). Incipient ulceration cases were matched at a 1:2 ratio with nonulcerated and ulcerated controls, respectively. Study analysis was conducted from March to June 2023.

Main Outcomes

Clinicopathological factors and clinical outcomes: overall survival (OS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared between cases and controls.

Results

Of 2284 patients with melanoma identified, 340 patients (median [IQR] age, 69 [24-94] years; 136 [68%] men; median follow-up, 7.2 years) met the criteria. The matched cohort consisted of 40 cases of incipiently ulcerated melanoma matched 1:2 with 80 nonulcerated controls, and 80 ulcerated controls. The median (IQR) Breslow thickness differed significantly between cases and controls; 2.8 (1.7-4.1) mm for incipient cases compared with 1.0 (0.6-2.1) mm and 5.3 (3.5-8.0) mm for nonulcerated and ulcerated melanomas, respectively. Median (IQR) tumor mitotic rate was 5.0 (3.0-9.0) per mm2 in incipiently ulcerated cases compared with 1 (0-3.0) per mm2 in nonulcerated controls and 9 (5.0-14.0) per mm2 in ulcerated controls. Based on the matched cohorts, patients with nonulcerated tumors had significantly better OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27-0.88; P = .02) and RFS (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.64; P < .001) than patients with incipient ulceration. The RFS was significantly worse in ulcerated tumors compared with incipiently ulcerated cases (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.07-2.60; P = .03). After adjusting for pathological factors, no statistically significant differences in clinical outcomes were observed between cases and either control group.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this case-control study indicate that incipient ulceration in a primary melanoma represents an adverse prognostic feature that should be noted by pathologists in their reports and considered in future guidelines.

Artificial Intelligence in Digital Pathology for Bladder Cancer: Hype or Hope? A Systematic Review

Bladder cancer (BC) diagnosis and prediction of prognosis are hindered by subjective pathological evaluation, which may cause misdiagnosis and under-/over-treatment. Computational pathology (CPATH) can identify clinical outcome predictors, offering an objective approach to improve prognosis. However, a systematic review of CPATH in BC literature is lacking. Therefore, we present a comprehensive overview of studies that used CPATH in BC, analyzing 33 out of 2285 identified studies. Most studies analyzed regions of interest to distinguish normal versus tumor tissue and identify tumor grade/stage and tissue types (e.g., urothelium, stroma, and muscle). The cell's nuclear area, shape irregularity, and roundness were the most promising markers to predict recurrence and survival based on selected regions of interest, with >80% accuracy. CPATH identified molecular subtypes by detecting features, e.g., papillary structures, hyperchromatic, and pleomorphic nuclei. Combining clinicopathological and image-derived features improved recurrence and survival prediction. However, due to the lack of outcome interpretability and independent test datasets, robustness and clinical applicability could not be ensured. The current literature demonstrates that CPATH holds the potential to improve BC diagnosis and prediction of prognosis. However, more robust, interpretable, accurate models and larger datasets-representative of clinical scenarios-are needed to address artificial intelligence's reliability, robustness, and black box challenge.

Invasive Cutaneous Melanoma: Evaluating the Prognostic Significance of Some Parameters Associated with Lymph Node Metastases

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to assess the clinical-pathological profile of patients with invasive cutaneous melanomas and to identify the parameters with a prognostic role in the lymph nodal spread of this malignant tumor. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective study on patients with invasive cutaneous melanomas who underwent surgery in the "Pius Brînzeu" County Clinical Emergency Hospital from Timișoara, Romania, and were evaluated for the status of loco-regional lymph nodes. We selected and analyzed some parameters searching for their relationship with lymph node metastases. Results: We identified 79 patients with invasive cutaneous melanomas (29 men and 50 women, mean age 59.36 years). A percentage of 58.3% of melanomas had Breslow tumor thickness >2 mm; 69.6% of melanomas showed a Clark level IV-V. Tumor ulceration was present in 59.5% of melanomas. A mitotic rate of ≥5 mitoses/mm² was observed in 48.1% of melanomas. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), non-brisk, were present in 59.5% of cases and 22.8% of patients had satellite/in-transit metastasis (SINTM). Tumor regression was identified in 44.3% of cases. Lymph nodes metastases were found in 43.1% of patients. Statistical analysis showed that lymph node metastases were more frequent in melanomas with Breslow thickness >2 mm (p = 0.0002), high Clark level (p = 0.0026), mitotic rate >5 mitoses/mm² (p = 0.0044), ulceration (p = 0.0107), lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.0182), SINTM (p = 0.0302), and non-brisk TILs (p = 0.0302). Conclusions: The Breslow thickness >2 mm, high Clark level, high mitotic rate and ulceration are the most important prognostic factors for lymph nodal spread in cutaneous melanomas. However, some melanomas without these clinical-pathological features can have an unexpected, aggressive evolution, which entails the necessity of close and prolonged clinical follow-up of patients, including those with lesions considered without risk.

Predictive accuracy of elevated mitotic rate on lymph node positivity and recurrence in thin melanomas

Background

Mitotic rate (MR) is considered an important prognostic factor for melanoma but is not currently used for staging because its nuanced effect is not yet well-delineated. We sought to determine if T category-specific MR is predictive of sentinel lymph node (SLN) positivity, recurrence, and melanoma-specific mortality (MSM).

Methods

A retrospective review of patients with primary cutaneous melanoma from 1994 to 2020 at a single academic center was performed. Patient demographics and tumor characteristics were recorded. MR was considered elevated for each AJCC8-defined T category if it was ≥2 mitoses/mm² for T1, ≥4 mitoses/mm² for T2, ≥6 mitoses/mm² for T3, or ≥7 mitoses/mm² for T4. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the predictive accuracy of MR on selected outcomes while controlling for ulceration.

Results

Data from 2,984 patients with complete records were analyzed. Along with Breslow thickness and ulceration, elevated MR was associated with higher risk of MSM (HR 1.816, P=0.0001). There was no difference among patients with ulcerated T1 or T2 tumors regardless of MR, but those with non-ulcerated T1 or T2 tumors and elevated MR were more likely to have positive SLNs (P<0.0001 and P=0.0043, respectively) and recurrence (P=0.0007 and P=0.0004, respectively) compared to counterparts with low MR. There were no notable differences for T3 or T4 tumors based on MR.

Conclusions

Elevated MR is associated with SLN positivity and recurrence in thin melanomas, independent of ulceration. SLN biopsy should therefore be strongly considered for patients with non-ulcerated lesions <0.8 mm thick if the MR is ≥2 mitoses/mm².

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure in melanoma patients: a retrospective study on prognosis and histological features

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are endocrine disrupting chemicals which could be associated with cancer development, such as kidney and testicular cancers, pancreatic and hepatocellular carcinoma and thyroid tumor. Available scientific literature offers no information on the role of PFAS in melanoma development/progression. Since 1965, a massive environmental contamination by PFAS has occurred in northeastern Italy. This study compared histopathology and prognosis between melanoma patients exposed (n = 194) and unexposed (n = 488) to PFAS. All patients were diagnosed and/or treated for melanoma at the Veneto Oncological Institute and the University Hospital of Padua (Italy) in 1998-2014. Patients were categorized in exposed or unexposed groups according to their home address and the geographical classification of municipalities affected by PFAS contamination as provided by Veneto Government in 2018. Presence of mitoses was found in 70.5% of exposed patients and 58.7% of unexposed patients (p = 0.005). Median follow-up was 90 months (IQR 59-136). 5-year overall survival was 83.7% in exposed patients and 88.0% in unexposed patients (p = 0.20); 5-year disease-specific survival was 88.0% in exposed patients and 90.9% in unexposed patients (p = 0.50); 5-year disease-free survival was 83.8% in exposed patients and 87.3% in unexposed patients (p = 0.20). Adjusting for imbalanced characteristics at baseline (presence of mitoses), survival was not statistically different between exposed and unexposed patients (overall survival: HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.58, p = 0.57; disease-specific survival: HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.59, p = 0.99; disease-free survival: HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.64, p = 0.62). Although the magnitude of PFAS exposure was not quantifiable, our findings suggested that exposure to PFAS was associated with higher level of mitosis in melanoma patients, but this did not translate into a survival difference. Further studies are required to investigate this relationship and all effects of PFAS on prognosis.

Melanoma of the Scalp and Neck: A Population-Based Analysis of Survival and Treatment Patterns

Introduction: Melanoma is an aggressive skin cancer. Large demographic and clinic-pathologic studies are required to identify variations of tumour behavior. The aim of our study was to offer updated epidemiologic data on the scalp and neck melanoma with an overall survival analysis. Method: The SEER database was searched for all scalp and neck melanoma in adult patients between 2000 and 2019. Demographic and clinic-pathologic variables were described. Their impact on overall survival was assessed with the log-rank test after Kaplan−Meier model. A multivariable cox-regression was conducted to identify predictors of decreased survival. A p-value of <0.005 was considered statistically significant. Results: 20,728 Melanomas of the scalp and neck were identified. Mean age was 62.5 years. Gender ratio was 76.3% males. 79% of the tumours were localized at diagnosis. Increasing age, male gender, tumour ulceration, high mitotic rate or nodular subtype were independent prognostic factors of decreased overall survival. Surgery with less than 1 cm margin is associated with the best overall survival in this cohort. No significant difference in OS was seen between less than 1 cm and 1 to 2 cm margins. Conclusion: Knowledge of negative prognostic factors might help identify subgroups at risk and adapt their oncologic treatment.

Ulceration vs Mitosis in Cutaneous Melanoma: which is Superior for Predicting Prognosis Across Clinical Stages?

Ulceration and high mitosis are considered among the major unfavorable prognostic factors in the survival of cutaneous melanoma patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of these parameters and to compare them to see which one is superior to predicting prognosis across all clinical stages of melanoma. A total of 1,074 melanomas were analyzed retrospectively. Tumor ulceration was found to be limited to the local stage for predicting survival, whereas, mitosis maintained its prognostic strength for predicting survival across all clinical stages. Furthermore, no survival differences were observed between ulceration and mitosis across clinical stages.

Prognosis for Cutaneous Melanoma by Clinical and Pathological Profile: A Population-Based Study

Introduction

Among white people, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) has been increasing steadily for several decades. Meanwhile, there has also been a significant improvement in 5-year survival among patients with melanoma. This population-based cohort study investigates the five-year melanoma-specific survival (MSS) for all melanoma cases recorded in 2015 in the Veneto Tumor Registry (North-Est Italian Region), taking both demographic and clinical-pathological variables into consideration.

Methods

The cumulative melanoma-specific survival probabilities were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method, applying different sociodemographic and clinical-pathological variables. Cox’s proportional hazards model was fitted to the data to assess the association between independent variables and MSS, and also overall survival (OS), calculating the hazard ratios (HR) relative to a reference condition, and adjusting for sex, age, site of tumor, histotype, melanoma ulceration, mitotic count, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), and stage at diagnosis.

Results

Compared with stage I melanoma, the risk of death was increased for stage II (HR 3.31, 95% CI: 0.94-11.76, p=0.064), almost ten times higher for stage III (HR 10.51, 95% CI: 3.16-35.02, p<0.001), and more than a hundred times higher for stage IV (HR 117.17, 95% CI: 25.30-542.62, p<0.001). Among the other variables included in the model, the presence of mitoses and histological subtype emerged as independent risk factors for death.

Conclusions

The multivariable analysis disclosed that older age, tumor site, histotype, mitotic count, and tumor stage were independently associated with a higher risk of death. Data on survival by clinical and morphological characteristics could be useful in modelling, planning, and managing the most appropriate treatment and follow-up for patients with CMM.

Association of Melanoma-Risk Variants with Primary Melanoma Tumor Prognostic Characteristics and Melanoma-Specific Survival in the GEM Study

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and candidate pathway studies have identified low-penetrant genetic variants associated with cutaneous melanoma. We investigated the association of melanoma-risk variants with primary melanoma tumor prognostic characteristics and melanoma-specific survival. The Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study enrolled 3285 European origin participants with incident invasive primary melanoma. For each of 47 melanoma-risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we used linear and logistic regression modeling to estimate, respectively, the per allele mean changes in log of Breslow thickness and odds ratios for presence of ulceration, mitoses, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). We also used Cox proportional hazards regression modeling to estimate the per allele hazard ratios for melanoma-specific survival. Passing the false discovery threshold (p = 0.0026) were associations of IRF4 rs12203592 and CCND1 rs1485993 with log of Breslow thickness, and association of TERT rs2242652 with presence of mitoses. IRF4 rs12203592 also had nominal associations (p < 0.05) with presence of mitoses and melanoma-specific survival, as well as a borderline association (p = 0.07) with ulceration. CCND1 rs1485993 also had a borderline association with presence of mitoses (p = 0.06). MX2 rs45430 had nominal associations with log of Breslow thickness, presence of mitoses, and melanoma-specific survival. Our study indicates that further research investigating the associations of these genetic variants with underlying biologic pathways related to tumor progression is warranted.

Different mitotic rates are associated with different prognostic factors, relapses, and survival rates in melanoma

BACKGROUND

Mitotic rate is one of the major prognostic factors in melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the significance of mitotic rate and possible impacts of clinicopathological factors on the course of all staged melanoma patients.

METHODS

A total number of 970 melanoma patients were analyzed. Mitotic rates were grouped for analysis as follows: 0-1, 1.1-4.9, 5-9.9, and ≥10 mitoses/mm² .

RESULTS

Melanomas with higher mitotic rates were more likely to be associated with nodular histology (P = 0.0001), higher Clark level (P = 0.0001), thick Breslow depth (P = 0.0001), ulceration (P = 0.0001), vertical growth pattern (P = 0.0001), neurotropism (P = 0.04), lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.01), de novo melanoma (P = 0.0001), absence of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (P = 0.02), advanced stage (P = 0.0001), and relapse (P = 0.0001). The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of all patients was 68.7%, and it decreased significantly from 87% in melanomas with 0-1 mitoses/mm² to 65.2%, 56.6%, and 50.4% in melanomas with 1.1-4.9, 5-9.9, and ≥10 mitoses/mm² , respectively (P = 0.0001). Age (P = 0.04), gender (P = 0.03), histology (P = 0.0001), Clark level (P = 0.001), T-stage (P = 0.003), ulceration (0.006), node involvement (P = 0.0001), metastasis (P = 0.005), and relapse (P = 0.0001) were correlated with OS in 0-1 mitoses/mm² melanomas, whereas lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.0001), BRAF mutation (P = 0.01), metastasis (P = 0.0001), relapse (P = 0.0001), and relapse pattern (P = 0.005) were found significant for ≥10 mitoses/mm² melanomas.

CONCLUSION

Higher tumor mitotic rates associated with known histopathological and clinical poor prognostic factors were found to be significantly independent predictors of early relapse and unfavorable survival for cutaneous melanoma patients. Moreover, different prognostic variables were found to be affecting survivals in melanoma patients with lower and higher mitosis.

Not all melanomas are created equal: a review and call for more research into nodular melanoma

Among the histogenic subtypes of melanoma, nodular melanoma (NM) is the major contributor for thicker and fatal melanomas and it has been associated with melanoma-specific death in thin tumours, highlighting an important subgroup of 'aggressive thin' melanomas. This review provides a synthesis of the distinct characteristics of NM, with respect to epidemiology and risk factors, clinical presentation, histopathology, molecular and dermoscopic aspects, and screening practices. The real challenges are to find better biomarkers of aggressiveness and to know whether the control of such aggressive melanomas can be influenced by targeted interventions such as early detection, drug interventions and preventive strategies.