Uncertainty quantification of inflow boundary condition and proximal arterial stiffness-coupled effect on pulse wave propagation in a vascular network

Efficient uncertainty quantification in a spatially multiscale model of pulmonary arterial and venous hemodynamics

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a debilitating disease that alters the structure and function of both the proximal and distal pulmonary vasculature. This alters pressure-flow relationships in the pulmonary arterial and venous trees, though there is a critical knowledge gap in the relationships between proximal and distal hemodynamics in disease. Multiscale computational models enable simulations in both the proximal and distal vasculature. However, model inputs and measured data are inherently uncertain, requiring a full analysis of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the model. Thus, this study quantifies model sensitivity and output uncertainty in a spatially multiscale, pulse-wave propagation model of pulmonary hemodynamics. The model includes fifteen proximal arteries and twelve proximal veins, connected by a two-sided, structured tree model of the distal vasculature. We use polynomial chaos expansions to expedite sensitivity and uncertainty quantification analyses and provide results for both the proximal and distal vasculature. We quantify uncertainty in blood pressure, blood flow rate, wave intensity, wall shear stress, and cyclic stretch. The latter two are important stimuli for endothelial cell mechanotransduction. We conclude that, while nearly all the parameters in our system have some influence on model predictions, the parameters describing the density of the microvascular beds have the largest effects on all simulated quantities in both the proximal and distal arterial and venous circulations.

Efficient sensitivity analysis for biomechanical models with correlated inputs

In most variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches applied to biomechanical models, statistical independence of the model input is assumed. However, often the model inputs are correlated. This might alter the interpretation of the SA results, which may severely impact the guidance provided during model development and personalization. Potential reasons for the infrequent usage of SA techniques that account for input correlation are the associated high computational costs, especially for models with many parameters, and the fact that the input correlation structure is often unknown. The aim of this study was to propose an efficient correlated global sensitivity analysis method by applying a surrogate model-based approach. Furthermore, this article demonstrates how correlated SA should be interpreted and how the applied method can guide the modeler during model development and personalization, even when the correlation structure is not entirely known beforehand. The proposed methodology was applied to a typical example of a pulse wave propagation model and resulted in accurate SA results that could be obtained at a theoretically 27,000× lower computational cost compared to the correlated SA approach without employing a surrogate model. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that input correlations can significantly affect SA results, which emphasizes the need to thoroughly investigate the effect of input correlations during model development. We conclude that our proposed surrogate-based SA approach allows modelers to efficiently perform correlated SA to complex biomechanical models and allows modelers to focus on input prioritization, input fixing and model reduction, or assessing the dependency structure between parameters.

Uncertainties in the Analysis of Heart Rate Variability: A Systematic Review

Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important metric with a variety of applications in clinical situations such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and mental health. HRV data can be potentially obtained from electrocardiography and photoplethysmography signals, then computational techniques such as signal filtering and data segmentation are used to process the sampled data for calculating HRV measures. However, uncertainties arising from data acquisition, computational models, and physiological factors can lead to degraded signal quality and affect HRV analysis. Therefore, it is crucial to address these uncertainties and develop advanced models for HRV analysis. Although several reviews of HRV analysis exist, they primarily focus on clinical applications, trends in HRV methods, or specific aspects of uncertainties such as measurement noise. This paper provides a comprehensive review of uncertainties in HRV analysis, quantifies their impacts, and outlines potential solutions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that presents a holistic review of uncertainties in HRV methods and quantifies their impacts on HRV measures from an engineer's perspective. This review is essential for developing robust and reliable models, and could serve as a valuable future reference in the field, particularly for dealing with uncertainties in HRV analysis.

Uncertainty Quantification in the In Vivo Image-Based Estimation of Local Elastic Properties of Vascular Walls

Introduction: Patient-specific computational models are a powerful tool for planning cardiovascular interventions. However, the in vivo patient-specific mechanical properties of vessels represent a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigated the effect of uncertainty in the elastic module (E) on a Fluid–Structure Interaction (FSI) model of a patient-specific aorta. Methods: The image-based χ-method was used to compute the initial E value of the vascular wall. The uncertainty quantification was carried out using the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion technique. The stochastic analysis was based on four deterministic simulations considering four quadrature points. A deviation of about ±20% on the estimation of the E value was assumed. Results: The influence of the uncertain E parameter was evaluated along the cardiac cycle on area and flow variations extracted from five cross-sections of the aortic FSI model. Results of stochastic analysis showed the impact of E in the ascending aorta while an insignificant effect was observed in the descending tract. Conclusions: This study demonstrated the importance of the image-based methodology for inferring E, highlighting the feasibility of retrieving useful additional data and enhancing the reliability of in silico models in clinical practice.

A personalized 0D-1D model of cardiovascular system for the hemodynamic simulation of enhanced external counterpulsation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP) is a non-invasive treatment modality capable of treating a variety of ischemic diseases. Currently, no effective methods of predicting the patient-specific hemodynamic effects of EECP are available. In this study, a personalized 0D-1D model of the cardiovascular system was developed for hemodynamic simulation to simulate the changes in blood flow in the EECP state and develop the best treatment protocol for each individual.

METHODS

A 0D-1D closed-loop model of the cardiovascular system was developed for hemodynamic simulation, consisting of a 1D wave propagation model for arteries, a 0D model for veins and capillaries, and a one-fiber model for the heart. Additionally, a simulation model coupling EECP with a 1D model was established. Physiological data, including the blood flow in different arteries, were clinically collected from 22 volunteers at rest and in the EECP state. Sensitivity analysis and a simulated annealing algorithm were used to build personalized 0D-1D models using the clinical data in the rest state as optimization objectives. Then, the clinical data on EECP were used to verify the applicability and accuracy of the personalized models.

RESULTS

The simulation results and clinical data were found to be in agreement for all 22 subjects, with waveform similarity coefficients (r) exceeding 90% for most arteries at rest and 80% for most arteries during EECP.

CONCLUSIONS

The 0D-1D closed-loop model and the optimized method can facilitate personalized modeling of the cardiovascular system using the data in the rest state and effectively predict the hemodynamic changes in the EECP state, which is significant for the numerical simulation of personalized hemodynamics. The model can also potentially be used to make decisions regarding patient-specific treatment.

Computational cardiac physiology for new modelers: Origins, foundations, and future

Mathematical models of the cardiovascular system have come a long way since they were first introduced in the early 19th century. Driven by a rapid development of experimental techniques, numerical methods, and computer hardware, detailed models that describe physical scales from the molecular level up to organs and organ systems have been derived and used for physiological research. Mathematical and computational models can be seen as condensed and quantitative formulations of extensive physiological knowledge and are used for formulating and testing hypotheses, interpreting and directing experimental research, and have contributed substantially to our understanding of cardiovascular physiology. However, in spite of the strengths of mathematics to precisely describe complex relationships and the obvious need for the mathematical and computational models to be informed by experimental data, there still exist considerable barriers between experimental and computational physiological research. In this review, we present a historical overview of the development of mathematical and computational models in cardiovascular physiology, including the current state of the art. We further argue why a tighter integration is needed between experimental and computational scientists in physiology, and point out important obstacles and challenges that must be overcome in order to fully realize the synergy of experimental and computational physiological research.

Uncertainty quantification in cerebral circulation simulations focusing on the collateral flow: Surrogate model approach with machine learning

Collateral circulation in the circle of Willis (CoW), closely associated with disease mechanisms and treatment outcomes, can be effectively investigated using one-dimensional–zero-dimensional hemodynamic simulations. As the entire cardiovascular system is considered in the simulation, it captures the systemic effects of local arterial changes, thus reproducing collateral circulation that reflects biological phenomena. The simulation facilitates rapid assessment of clinically relevant hemodynamic quantities under patient-specific conditions by incorporating clinical data. During patient-specific simulations, the impact of clinical data uncertainty on the simulated quantities should be quantified to obtain reliable results. However, as uncertainty quantification (UQ) is time-consuming and computationally expensive, its implementation in time-sensitive clinical applications is considered impractical. Therefore, we constructed a surrogate model based on machine learning using simulation data. The model accurately predicts the flow rate and pressure in the CoW in a few milliseconds. This reduced computation time enables the UQ execution with 100 000 predictions in a few minutes on a single CPU core and in less than a minute on a GPU. We performed UQ to predict the risk of cerebral hyperperfusion (CH), a life-threatening condition that can occur after carotid artery stenosis surgery if collateral circulation fails to function appropriately. We predicted the statistics of the postoperative flow rate increase in the CoW, which is a measure of CH, considering the uncertainties of arterial diameters, stenosis parameters, and flow rates measured using the patients’ clinical data. A sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the impact of each uncertain parameter on the flow rate increase. Results indicated that CH occurred when two conditions were satisfied simultaneously: severe stenosis and when arteries of small diameter serve as the collateral pathway to the cerebral artery on the stenosis side. These findings elucidate the biological aspects of cerebral circulation in terms of the relationship between collateral flow and CH.

Introduction of a Novel Image-Based and Non-Invasive Method for the Estimation of Local Elastic Properties of Great Vessels

Background: In the context of a growing demand for the use of in silico models to meet clinical requests, image-based methods play a crucial role. In this study, we present a parametric equation able to estimate the elasticity of vessel walls, non-invasively and indirectly, from information uniquely retrievable from imaging. Methods: A custom equation was iteratively refined and tuned from the simulations of a wide range of different vessel models, leading to the definition of an indirect method able to estimate the elastic modulus E of a vessel wall. To test the effectiveness of the predictive capability to infer the E value, two models with increasing complexity were used: a U-shaped vessel and a patient-specific aorta. Results: The original formulation was demonstrated to deviate from the ground truth, with a difference of 89.6%. However, the adoption of our proposed equation was found to significantly increase the reliability of the estimated E value for a vessel wall, with a mean percentage error of 9.3% with respect to the reference values. Conclusion: This study provides a strong basis for the definition of a method able to estimate local mechanical information of vessels from data easily retrievable from imaging, thus potentially increasing the reliability of in silico cardiovascular models.

Uncertainty quantification of a thrombosis model considering the clotting assay PFA-100®

Mathematical models of thrombosis are currently used to study clinical scenarios of pathological thrombus formation. As these models become more complex to predict thrombus formation dynamics high computational cost must be alleviated and inherent uncertainties must be assessed. Evaluating model uncertainties allows to increase the confidence in model predictions and identify avenues of improvement for both thrombosis modeling and anti-platelet therapies. In this work, an uncertainty quantification analysis of a multi-constituent thrombosis model is performed considering a common assay for platelet function (PFA-100®). The analysis is facilitated thanks to time-evolving polynomial chaos expansions used as a parametric surrogate for the full thrombosis model considering two quantities of interest; namely, thrombus volume and occlusion percentage. The surrogate is thoroughly validated and provides a straightforward access to a global sensitivity analysis via computation of Sobol' coefficients. Six out of 15 parameters linked to thrombus consitution, vWF activity, and platelet adhesion dynamics were found to be most influential in the simulation variability considering only individual effects; while parameter interactions are highlighted when considering the total Sobol' indices. The influential parameters are related to thrombus constitution, vWF activity, and platelet to platelet adhesion dynamics. The surrogate model allowed to predict realistic PFA-100® closure times of 300,000 virtual cases that followed the trends observed in clinical data. The current methodology could be used including common anti-platelet therapies to identify scenarios that preserve the hematological balance.

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis: results from the Ocular Mathematical Virtual Simulator

We propose an uncertainty propagation study and a sensitivity analysis with the Ocular Mathematical Virtual Simulator, a computational and mathematical model that predicts the hemodynamics and biomechanics within the human eye. In this contribution, we focus on the effect of intraocular pressure, retrolaminar tissue pressure and systemic blood pressure on the ocular posterior tissue vasculature. The combination of a physically-based model with experiments-based stochastic input allows us to gain a better understanding of the physiological system, accounting both for the driving mechanisms and the data variability.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Patient-Specific Aortic Simulations: The Role of Geometry, Boundary Condition and Large Eddy Simulation Modeling Parameters

Numerical simulations for computational hemodynamics in clinical settings require a combination of many ingredients, mathematical models, solvers and patient-specific data. The sensitivity of the solutions to these factors may be critical, particularly when we have a partial or noisy knowledge of data. Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess the reliability of the results. We present here an extensive sensitivity analysis in aortic flow simulations, to quantify the dependence of clinically relevant quantities to the patient-specific geometry and the inflow boundary conditions. Geometry and inflow conditions are generally believed to have a major impact on numerical simulations. We resort to a global sensitivity analysis, (i.e., not restricted to a linearization around a working point), based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and the associated Sobol' indices. We regard the geometry and the inflow conditions as the realization of a parametric stochastic process. To construct a physically consistent stochastic process for the geometry, we use a set of longitudinal-in-time images of a patient with an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) to parametrize geometrical variations. Aortic flow is highly disturbed during systole. This leads to high computational costs, even amplified in a sensitivity analysis -when many simulations are needed. To mitigate this, we consider here a large Eddy simulation (LES) model. Our model depends in particular on a user-defined parameter called filter radius. We borrowed the tools of the global sensitivity analysis to assess the sensitivity of the solution to this parameter too. The targeted quantities of interest (QoI) include: the total kinetic energy (TKE), the time-average wall shear stress (TAWSS), and the oscillatory shear index (OSI). The results show that these indexes are mostly sensitive to the geometry. Also, we find that the sensitivity may be different during different instants of the heartbeat and in different regions of the domain of interest. This analysis helps to assess the reliability of in silico tools for clinical applications.

The effects of clinically-derived parametric data uncertainty in patient-specific coronary simulations with deformable walls

Cardiovascular simulations are increasingly used for noninvasive diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, to guide treatment decisions, and in the design of medical devices. Quantitative assessment of the variability of simulation outputs due to input uncertainty is a key step toward further integration of cardiovascular simulations in the clinical workflow. In this study, we present uncertainty quantification in computational models of the coronary circulation to investigate the effect of uncertain parameters, including coronary pressure waveform, intramyocardial pressure, morphometry exponent, and the vascular wall Young's modulus. We employ a left coronary artery model with deformable vessel walls, simulated via an Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian framework for fluid-structure interaction, with a prescribed inlet pressure and open-loop lumped parameter network outlet boundary conditions. Stochastic modeling of the uncertain inputs is determined from intra-coronary catheterization data or gathered from the literature. Uncertainty propagation is performed using several approaches including Monte Carlo, Quasi Monte Carlo sampling, stochastic collocation, and multi-wavelet stochastic expansion. Variabilities in the quantities of interest, including branch pressure, flow, wall shear stress, and wall deformation are assessed. We find that uncertainty in inlet pressures and intramyocardial pressures significantly affect all resulting QoIs, while uncertainty in elastic modulus only affects the mechanical response of the vascular wall. Variability in the morphometry exponent used to distribute the total downstream vascular resistance to the single outlets, has little effect on coronary hemodynamics or wall mechanics. Finally, we compare convergence behaviors of statistics of QoIs using several uncertainty propagation methods on three model benchmark problems and the left coronary simulations. From the simulation results, we conclude that the multi-wavelet stochastic expansion shows superior accuracy and performance against Quasi Monte Carlo and stochastic collocation methods.

Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular hemodynamics

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in cardiovascular modeling pose challenges due to the large number of uncertain inputs and the significant computational cost of realistic three-dimensional simulations. We propose an efficient uncertainty quantification framework utilizing a multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo (MLMF) estimator to improve the accuracy of hemodynamic quantities of interest while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This is achieved by leveraging three cardiovascular model fidelities, each with varying spatial resolution to rigorously quantify the variability in hemodynamic outputs. We employ two low-fidelity models (zero- and one-dimensional) to construct several different estimators. Our goal is to investigate and compare the efficiency of estimators built from combinations of these two low-fidelity model alternatives and our high-fidelity three-dimensional models. We demonstrate this framework on healthy and diseased models of aortic and coronary anatomy, including uncertainties in material property and boundary condition parameters. Our goal is to demonstrate that for this application it is possible to accelerate the convergence of the estimators by utilizing a MLMF paradigm. Therefore, we compare our approach to single fidelity Monte Carlo estimators and to a multilevel Monte Carlo approach based only on three-dimensional simulations, but leveraging multiple spatial resolutions. We demonstrate significant, on the order of 10 to 100 times, reduction in total computational cost with the MLMF estimators. We also examine the differing properties of the MLMF estimators in healthy versus diseased models, as well as global versus local quantities of interest. As expected, global quantities such as outlet pressure and flow show larger reductions than local quantities, such as those relating to wall shear stress, as the latter rely more heavily on the highest fidelity model evaluations. Similarly, healthy models show larger reductions than diseased models. In all cases, our workflow coupling Dakota's MLMF estimators with the SimVascular cardiovascular modeling framework makes uncertainty quantification feasible for constrained computational budgets.

Reduced-order modeling of hemodynamics across macroscopic through mesoscopic circulation scales

We propose a hemodynamic reduced-order model bridging macroscopic and mesoscopic blood flow circulation scales from arteries to capillaries. In silico tree-like vascular geometries, mathematically described by graphs, are synthetically generated by means of stochastic growth algorithms constrained by statistical morphological and topological principles. Scale-specific pruning gradation of the tree is then proposed in order to fit computational budget requirement. Different compliant structural models with respect to pressure loads are used depending on vessel walls thicknesses and structures, which vary considerably from macroscopic to mesoscopic circulation scales. Nonlinear rheological properties of blood are also included, and microcirculation network responses are computed for different rheologies. Numerical results are in very good agreement with available experimental measurements. The computational model captures the dynamic transition between large- to small-scale flow pulsatility speeds and magnitudes and wall shear stresses, which have wide-ranging physiological influences.

Semi-intrusive multiscale metamodelling uncertainty quantification with application to a model of in-stent restenosis

We explore the efficiency of a semi-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for multiscale models as proposed by us in an earlier publication. We applied the multiscale metamodelling UQ method to a two-dimensional multiscale model for the wound healing response in a coronary artery after stenting (in-stent restenosis). The results obtained by the semi-intrusive method show a good match to those obtained by a black-box quasi-Monte Carlo method. Moreover, we significantly reduce the computational cost of the UQ. We conclude that the semi-intrusive metamodelling method is reliable and efficient, and can be applied to such complex models as the in-stent restenosis ISR2D model. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.

Uncertainty quantification of simulated biomechanical stimuli in coronary artery bypass grafts

Coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) is performed on more than 400,000 patients annually in the U.S. However, saphenous vein grafts (SVGs) implanted during CABG exhibit poor patency compared to arterial grafts, with failure rates up to 40% within 10 years after surgery. Differences in mechanical stimuli are known to play a role in driving maladaptation and have been correlated with endothelial damage and thrombus formation. As these quantities are difficult to measure in vivo, multi-scale coronary models offer a way to quantify them, while accounting for complex coronary physiology. However, prior studies have primarily focused on deterministic evaluations, without reporting variability in the model parameters due to uncertainty. This study aims to assess confidence in multi-scale predictions of wall shear stress and wall strain while accounting for uncertainty in peripheral hemodynamics and material properties. Boundary condition distributions are computed by assimilating uncertain clinical data, while spatial variations of vessel wall stiffness are obtained through approximation by a random field. We developed a stochastic submodeling approach to mitigate the computational burden of repeated multi-scale model evaluations to focus exclusively on the bypass grafts. This produces a two-level decomposition of quantities of interest into submodel contributions and full model/submodel discrepancies. We leverage these two levels in the context of forward uncertainty propagation using a previously proposed multi-resolution approach. The time- and space-averaged wall shear stress is well estimated with a coefficient of variation of <35%, but ignorance about the spatial distribution on the wall elastic modulus and thickness lead to large variations in an objective measure of wall strain, with coefficients of variation up to 100%. Sensitivity analysis reveals how the interactions between the flow and material parameters contribute to output variability.

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Computational FFR Estimation in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

PURPOSE

The main objectives of this study are to validate a reduced-order model for the estimation of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) index based on blood flow simulations that incorporate clinical imaging and patient-specific characteristics, and to assess the uncertainty of FFR predictions with respect to input data on a per patient basis.

METHODS

We consider 13 patients with symptoms of stable coronary artery disease for which 24 invasive FFR measurements are available. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis on the parameters related to the construction of a reduced-order (hybrid 1D-0D) model for FFR predictions. Next we define an optimal setting by comparing reduced-order model predictions with solutions based on the 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Finally, we characterize prediction uncertainty with respect to input data and identify the most influential inputs by means of sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Agreement between FFR computed by the reduced-order model and by the full 3D model was satisfactory, with a bias ([Formula: see text]) of [Formula: see text] at the 24 measured locations. Moreover, the uncertainty related to the factor by which peripheral resistance is reduced from baseline to hyperemic conditions proved to be the most influential parameter for FFR predictions, whereas uncertainty in stenosis geometry had greater effect in cases with low FFR.

CONCLUSION

Model errors related to solving a simplified reduced-order model rather than a full 3D problem were small compared with uncertainty related to input data. Improved measurement of coronary blood flow has the potential to reduce uncertainty in computational FFR predictions significantly.

Uncertainty Quantification in a Patient-Specific One-Dimensional Arterial Network Model: EnKF-Based Inflow Estimator

Successful clinical use of patient-specific models for cardiovascular dynamics depends on the reliability of the model output in the presence of input uncertainties. For 1D fluid dynamics models of arterial networks, input uncertainties associated with the model output are related to the specification of vessel and network geometry, parameters within the fluid and wall equations, and parameters used to specify inlet and outlet boundary conditions. This study investigates how uncertainty in the flow profile applied at the inlet boundary of a 1D model affects area and pressure predictions at the center of a single vessel. More specifically, this study develops an iterative scheme based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimate the temporal inflow profile from a prior distribution of curves. The EnKF-based inflow estimator provides a measure of uncertainty in the size and shape of the estimated inflow, which is propagated through the model to determine the corresponding uncertainty in model predictions of area and pressure. Model predictions are compared to ex vivo area and blood pressure measurements in the ascending aorta, the carotid artery, and the femoral artery of a healthy male Merino sheep. Results discuss dynamics obtained using a linear and a nonlinear viscoelastic wall model.