MID3: Mission Impossible or Model-Informed Drug Discovery and Development? Point-Counterpoint Discussions on Key Challenges

Considerations for Industry-Preparing for the FDA Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) Paired Meeting Program

A recent industry perspective published in this journal describes the benefits received by drug companies from participation in the MIDD Pilot Program. Along with the primary objectives of supporting good decision-making in drug development, there were substantial savings in time and development costs. Furthermore, many sponsors reported qualitative benefits such as new learnings and clarity on MIDD strategies and methodology that could be applied to other development programs. Based on the success of the Pilot Program, the FDA recently announced the continuation of the MIDD Paired Meeting Program as part of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA VII). In this report, we describe the collective experiences of industry participants in the MIDD Program to date, including all aspects of the process from meeting request submission to follow-up actions. The purpose is to provide future participants with information to optimize the value of the MIDD Program.

A Simulation Study of the Effect of Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Choice on Reliever Medication Use, Symptom Control and Exacerbation Risk in Moderate-Severe Asthma

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between immediate symptom control, reliever medication use and exacerbation risk on treatment response and factors that modify it have not been assessed in an integrated manner. Here we apply simulation scenarios to evaluate the effect of individual baseline characteristics on treatment response in patients with moderate-severe asthma on regular maintenance dosing monotherapy with fluticasone propionate (FP) or combination therapy with fluticasone propionate/salmeterol (FP/SAL) or budesonide/formoterol (BUD/FOR).

METHODS

Reduction in reliever medication use (puffs/24 h), change in symptom control scores (ACQ-5), and annualised exacerbation rate over 12 months were simulated in a cohort of patients with different baseline characteristics (e.g. time since diagnosis, asthma control questionnaire (ACQ-5) symptom score, smoking status, body mass index (BMI) and sex) using drug-disease models derived from large phase III/IV clinical studies.

RESULTS

Simulation scenarios show that being a smoker, having higher baseline ACQ-5 and BMI, and long asthma history is associated with increased reliever medication use (p < 0.01). This increase correlates with a higher exacerbation risk and higher ACQ-5 scores over the course of treatment, irrespective of the underlying maintenance therapy. Switching non-responders to ICS monotherapy to combination therapy after 3 months resulted in immediate reduction in reliever medication use (i.e. 1.3 vs. 1.0 puffs/24 h for FP/SAL and BUD/FOR, respectively). In addition, switching patients with ACQ-5 > 1.5 at baseline to FP/SAL resulted in 34% less exacerbations than those receiving regular dosing BUD/FOR (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified baseline characteristics of patients with moderate to severe asthma that are associated with greater reliever medication use, poor symptom control and higher exacerbation risk. Moreover, the effects of different inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/long-acting beta agonist (LABA) combinations vary significantly when considering long-term treatment performance. These factors should be considered in clinical practice as a basis for personalised management of patients with moderate-severe asthma symptoms.

Bioequivalence risk assessment of oral formulations containing racemic ibuprofen through a chiral physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of ibuprofen enantiomers

The characterization of the time course of ibuprofen enantiomers can be useful in the selection of the most sensitive analyte in bioequivalence studies. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation represents the most efficient methodology to virtually assess bioequivalence outcomes. In this work, we aim to develop and verify a PBPK model for ibuprofen enantiomers administered as a racemic mixture with different immediate release dosage forms to anticipate bioequivalence outcomes based on different particle size distributions. A PBPK model incorporating stereoselectivity and non-linearity in plasma protein binding and metabolism as well as R-to-S unidirectional inversion has been developed in Simcyp®. A dataset composed of 11 Phase I clinical trials with 54 scenarios (27 per enantiomer) and 14,452 observations (7129 for R-ibuprofen and 7323 for S-ibuprofen) was used. Prediction errors for AUC0-t and Cmax for both enantiomers fell within the 0.8-1.25 range in 50/54 (93 %) and 42/54 (78 %) of scenarios, respectively. Outstanding model performance, with 10/10 (100 %) of Cmax and 9/10 (90 %) of AUC0-t within the 0.9-1.1 range, was demonstrated for oral suspensions, which strongly supported its use for bioequivalence risk assessment. The deterministic bioequivalence risk assessment has revealed R-ibuprofen as the most sensitive analyte to detect differences in particle size distribution for oral suspensions containing 400 mg of racemic ibuprofen, suggesting that achiral bioanalytical methods would increase type II error and declare non-bioequivalence for formulations that are bioequivalent for the eutomer.

An industry perspective on current QSP trends in drug development

2023 marks the 10th anniversary of Natpara's submission to the US FDA, which led to the first recorded regulatory interaction where a decision was supported by Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology (QSP) simulations. It had taken about 5 years for the timid QSP discipline to emerge as an effective Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) tool with visible impact in the pharmaceutical industry. Since then, the presence of QSP in the regulatory environment has continued to increase, to the point that the Agency reported 60 QSP submissions in 2020 alone, representing ~ 4% of their annual IND submissions [1]. What sort of industry mindset has enabled QSP to reach this level of success? How does QSP fit within the MIDD paradigm? Does QSP mean the same to Discovery and to Clinical Development projects? How do 'platforms' compare to 'fit-for-purpose' QSP models in an industrial setting? Can QSP and empirical Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling be complementary? What level of validation is required to inform drug development decisions? This article reflects on all these questions, in particular addressing those audiences with limited line-of-sight into the drug industry decision-making machinery.

Longitudinal efficacy and safety modeling and simulation framework to aid dose selection of belantamab mafodotin for patients with multiple myeloma

Belantamab mafodotin, a monomethyl auristatin F (MMAF)-containing monoclonal antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), demonstrated deep and durable responses in the DRiving Excellence in Approaches to Multiple Myeloma (DREAMM)-1 and pivotal DREAMM-2 studies in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. As with other MMAF-containing ADCs, ocular adverse events were observed. To predict the effects of belantamab mafodotin dosing regimens and dose-modification strategies on efficacy and ocular safety end points, DREAMM-1 and DREAMM-2 data across a range of doses were used to develop an integrated simulation framework incorporating two separate longitudinal models and the published population pharmacokinetic model. A concentration-driven tumor growth inhibition model described the time course of serum M-protein concentration, a measure of treatment response, whereas a discrete time Markov model described the time course of ocular events graded with the GSK Keratopathy and Visual Acuity scale. Significant covariates included baseline β2 -microglobulin on growth rate, baseline M-protein on kill rate, extramedullary disease on the effect compartment rate constant, and baseline soluble B cell maturation antigen on maximal effect. Efficacy and safety end points were simulated for various doses with dosing intervals of 1, 3, 6, and 9 weeks and various event-driven dose-modification strategies. Simulations predicted that lower doses and longer dosing intervals were associated with lower probability and lower overall time with Grade 3+ and Grade 2+ ocular events compared with the reference regimen (2.5 mg/kg every 3 weeks), with a less-than-proportional reduction in efficacy. The predicted improved benefit-risk profiles of certain dosing schedules and dose modifications from this integrated framework has informed trial designs for belantamab mafodotin, supporting dose-optimization strategies.

Deep Learning Methods Applied to Drug Concentration Prediction of Olanzapine

Pharmacometrics and the utilization of population pharmacokinetics play an integral role in model-informed drug discovery and development (MIDD). Recently, there has been a growth in the application of deep learning approaches to aid in areas within MIDD. In this study, a deep learning model, LSTM-ANN, was developed to predict olanzapine drug concentrations from the CATIE study. A total of 1527 olanzapine drug concentrations from 523 individuals along with 11 patient-specific covariates were used in model development. The hyperparameters of the LSTM-ANN model were optimized through a Bayesian optimization algorithm. A population pharmacokinetic model using the NONMEM model was constructed as a reference to compare to the performance of the LSTM-ANN model. The RMSE of the LSTM-ANN model was 29.566 in the validation set, while the RMSE of the NONMEM model was 31.129. Permutation importance revealed that age, sex, and smoking were highly influential covariates in the LSTM-ANN model. The LSTM-ANN model showed potential in the application of drug concentration predictions as it was able to capture the relationships within a sparsely sampled pharmacokinetic dataset and perform comparably to the NONMEM model.

Sagacious epitope selection for vaccines, and both antibody-based therapeutics and diagnostics: tips from virology and oncology

The target of an antibody plays a significant role in the success of antibody-based therapeutics and diagnostics, and vaccine development. This importance is focused on the target binding site—epitope, where epitope selection as a part of design thinking beyond traditional antigen selection using whole cell or whole protein immunization can positively impact success. With purified recombinant protein production and peptide synthesis to display limited/selected epitopes, intrinsic factors that can affect the functioning of resulting antibodies can be more easily selected for. Many of these factors stem from the location of the epitope that can impact accessibility of the antibody to the epitope at a cellular or molecular level, direct inhibition of target antigen activity, conservation of function despite escape mutations, and even non-competitive inhibition sites. By incorporating novel computational methods for predicting antigen changes to model-informed drug discovery and development, superior vaccines and antibody-based therapeutics or diagnostics can be easily designed to mitigate failures. With detailed examples, this review highlights the new opportunities, factors and methods of predicting antigenic changes for consideration in sagacious epitope selection.

Perspective on model-informed drug development

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) is a process intended to expedite drug development, enhance regulatory science, and produce benefits for patients. Quantitative modeling and simulation-principally by population pharmacokinetics (PK), exposure-response, and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) analysis-is the technology that provides the capability to deploy MIDD across a range of applications. MIDD was codified in the 2017 Prescription Drug User Fee Act Reauthorization ¹ (PDUFA VI, 2018-2022) and a performance goal was a MIDD pilot program to hold 2 to 4 industry-U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) paired meetings quarterly through 2022.

End-to-end application of model-informed drug development for ertugliflozin, a novel sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) is critical in all stages of the drug-development process and almost all regulatory submissions for new agents incorporate some form of modeling and simulation. This review describes the MIDD approaches used in the end-to-end development of ertugliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor approved for the treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Approaches included (1) quantitative systems pharmacology modeling to predict dose-response relationships, (2) dose-response modeling and model-based meta-analysis for dose selection and efficacy comparisons, (3) population pharmacokinetics (PKs) modeling to characterize PKs and quantify population variability in PK parameters, (4) regression modeling to evaluate ertugliflozin dose-proportionality and the impact of uridine 5'-diphospho-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A9 genotype on ertugliflozin PKs, and (5) physiologically-based PK modeling to assess the risk of UGT-mediated drug-drug interactions. These end-to-end MIDD approaches for ertugliflozin facilitated decision making, resulted in time/cost savings, and supported registration and labeling.

Model-Informed Drug Development for Anti-Infectives: State of the Art and Future

Model-informed drug development (MIDD) has a long and rich history in infectious diseases. This review describes foundational principles of translational anti-infective pharmacology, including choice of appropriate measures of exposure and pharmacodynamic (PD) measures, patient subpopulations, and drug-drug interactions. Examples are presented for state-of-the-art, empiric, mechanistic, interdisciplinary, and real-world evidence MIDD applications in the development of antibacterials (review of minimum inhibitory concentration-based models, mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/PD (PK/PD) models, PK/PD models of resistance, and immune response), antifungals, antivirals, drugs for the treatment of global health infectious diseases, and medical countermeasures. The degree of adoption of MIDD practices across the infectious diseases field is also summarized. The future application of MIDD in infectious diseases will progress along two planes; "depth" and "breadth" of MIDD methods. "MIDD depth" refers to deeper incorporation of the specific pathogen biology and intrinsic and acquired-resistance mechanisms; host factors, such as immunologic response and infection site, to enable deeper interrogation of pharmacological impact on pathogen clearance; clinical outcome and emergence of resistance from a pathogen; and patient and population perspective. In particular, improved early assessment of the emergence of resistance potential will become a greater focus in MIDD, as this is poorly mitigated by current development approaches. "MIDD breadth" refers to greater adoption of model-centered approaches to anti-infective development. Specifically, this means how various MIDD approaches and translational tools can be integrated or connected in a systematic way that supports decision making by key stakeholders (sponsors, regulators, and payers) across the entire development pathway.

Opportunities for Quantitative Translational Modeling in Oncology

A 2-day meeting was held by members of the UK Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Network () in November 2018 on the topic of Translational Challenges in Oncology. Participants from a wide range of backgrounds were invited to discuss current and emerging modeling applications in nonclinical and clinical drug development, and to identify areas for improvement. This resulting perspective explores opportunities for impactful quantitative pharmacology approaches. Four key themes arose from the presentations and discussions that were held, leading to the following recommendations: Evaluate the predictivity and reproducibility of animal cancer models through precompetitive collaboration. Apply mechanism of action (MoA) based mechanistic models derived from nonclinical data to clinical trial data. Apply MoA reflective models across trial data sets to more robustly quantify the natural history of disease and response to differing interventions. Quantify more robustly the dose and concentration dependence of adverse events through mathematical modelling techniques and modified trial design.

Model-Informed Drug Discovery and Development Strategy for the Rapid Development of Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Combinations

The increasing emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires new effective and safe drug regimens. However, drug discovery and development are challenging, lengthy and costly. The framework of model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3) is proposed to be applied throughout the preclinical to clinical phases to provide an informative prediction of drug exposure and efficacy in humans in order to select novel anti-tuberculosis drug combinations. The MID3 includes pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic and quantitative systems pharmacology models, machine learning and artificial intelligence, which integrates all the available knowledge related to disease and the compounds. A translational in vitro-in vivo link throughout modeling and simulation is crucial to optimize the selection of regimens with the highest probability of receiving approval from regulatory authorities. In vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling provide powerful tools to predict pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions based on preclinical information. Mechanistic or semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models have been successfully applied to predict the clinical exposure-response profile for anti-tuberculosis drugs using preclinical data. Potential pharmacodynamic drug-drug interactions can be predicted from in vitro data through IVIVC and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling accounting for translational factors. It is essential for academic and industrial drug developers to collaborate across disciplines to realize the huge potential of MID3.