An industry perspective on current QSP trends in drug development

2023 marks the 10th anniversary of Natpara's submission to the US FDA, which led to the first recorded regulatory interaction where a decision was supported by Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology (QSP) simulations. It had taken about 5 years for the timid QSP discipline to emerge as an effective Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) tool with visible impact in the pharmaceutical industry. Since then, the presence of QSP in the regulatory environment has continued to increase, to the point that the Agency reported 60 QSP submissions in 2020 alone, representing ~ 4% of their annual IND submissions [1]. What sort of industry mindset has enabled QSP to reach this level of success? How does QSP fit within the MIDD paradigm? Does QSP mean the same to Discovery and to Clinical Development projects? How do 'platforms' compare to 'fit-for-purpose' QSP models in an industrial setting? Can QSP and empirical Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling be complementary? What level of validation is required to inform drug development decisions? This article reflects on all these questions, in particular addressing those audiences with limited line-of-sight into the drug industry decision-making machinery.

Characterisation of cotadutide's dual GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonistic effects on glycaemic control using an in vivo human glucose regulation quantitative systems pharmacology model

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cotadutide is a dual GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonist with balanced agonistic activity at each receptor designed to harness the advantages on promoting liver health, weight loss and glycaemic control. We characterised the effects of cotadutide on glucose, insulin, GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon over time in a quantitative manner using our glucose dynamics systems model (4GI systems model), in combination with clinical data from a multiple ascending dose/Phase 2a (MAD/Ph2a) study in overweight and obese subjects with a history of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (NCT02548585).

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

The cotadutide PK-4GI systems model was calibrated to clinical data by re-estimating only food related parameters. In vivo cotadutide efficacy was scaled based on in vitro potency. The model was used to explore the effect of weight loss on insulin sensitivity and predict the relative contribution of the GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonistic effects on glucose.

KEY RESULTS

Cotadutide MAD/Ph2a clinical endpoints were successfully predicted. The 4GI model captured a positive effect of weight loss on insulin sensitivity and showed that the stimulating effect of glucagon on glucose production counteracts the GLP-1 receptor-mediated decrease in glucose, resulting in a plateau for glucose decrease around a 200-μg cotadutide dose.

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

The 4GI quantitative systems pharmacology model was able to predict the clinical effects of cotadutide on glucose, insulin, GLP-1, glucagon and GIP given known in vitro potency. The analyses demonstrated that the quantitative systems pharmacology model, and its successive refinements, will be a valuable tool to support the clinical development of cotadutide and related compounds.

Application of quantitative protein mass spectrometric data in the early predictive analysis of membrane-bound target engagement by monoclonal antibodies

Model-informed drug discovery advocates the use of mathematical modeling and simulation for improved efficacy in drug discovery. In the case of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against cell membrane antigens, this requires quantitative insight into the target tissue concentration levels. Protein mass spectrometry data are often available but the values are expressed in relative, rather than in molar concentration units that are easier to incorporate into pharmacokinetic models. Here, we present an empirical correlation that converts the parts per million (ppm) concentrations in the PaxDb database to their molar equivalents that are more suitable for pharmacokinetic modeling. We evaluate the insight afforded to target tissue distribution by analyzing the likely tumor-targeting accuracy of mAbs recognizing either epidermal growth factor receptor or its homolog HER2. Surprisingly, the predicted tissue concentrations of both these targets exceed the Kd values of their respective therapeutic mAbs. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling indicates that in these conditions only about 0.05% of the dosed mAb is likely to reach the solid tumor target cells. The rest of the dose is eliminated in healthy tissues via both nonspecific and target-mediated processes. The presented approach allows evaluation of the interplay between the target expression level in different tissues that determines the overall pharmacokinetic properties of the drug and the fraction that reaches the cells of interest. This methodology can help to evaluate the efficacy and safety properties of novel drugs, especially if the off-target cell degradation has cytotoxic outcomes, as in the case of antibody-drug conjugates.

A pipeline for testing drug mechanism of action and combination therapies: From microarray data to simulations via Linear-In-Flux-Expressions: Testing four-drug combinations for tuberculosis treatment

Computational methods are becoming commonly used in many areas of medical research. Recently, the modeling of biological mechanisms associated with disease pathophysiology have benefited from approaches such as Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (briefly QSP) and Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetics (briefly PBPK). These methodologies show the potential to enhance, if not substitute animal models. The main reasons for this success are the high accuracy and low cost. Solid mathematical foundations of such methods, such as compartmental systems and flux balance analysis, provide a good base on which to build computational tools. However, there are many choices to be made in model design, that will have a large impact on how these methods perform as we scale up the network or perturb the system to uncover the mechanisms of action of new compounds or therapy combinations. A computational pipeline is presented here that starts with available -omic data and utilizes advanced mathematical simulations to inform the modeling of a biochemical system. Specific attention is devoted to creating a modular workflow, including the mathematical rigorous tools to represent complex chemical reactions, and modeling drug action in terms of its impact on multiple pathways. An application to optimizing combination therapy for tuberculosis shows the potential of the approach.

A next generation mathematical model for the in vitro to clinical translation of T-cell engagers

T-cell engager (TCE) molecules activate the immune system and direct it to kill tumor cells. The key mechanism of action of TCEs is to crosslink CD3 on T cells and tumor associated antigens (TAAs) on tumor cells. The formation of this trimolecular complex (i.e. trimer) mimics the immune synapse, leading to therapeutic-dependent T-cell activation and killing of tumor cells. Computational models supporting TCE development must predict trimer formation accurately. Here, we present a next-generation two-step binding mathematical model for TCEs to describe trimer formation. Specifically, we propose to model the second binding step with trans-avidity and as a two-dimensional (2D) process where the reactants are modeled as the cell-surface density. Compared to the 3D binding model where the reactants are described in terms of concentration, the 2D model predicts less sensitivity of trimer formation to varying cell densities, which better matches changes in EC₅₀ from in vitro cytotoxicity assay data with varying E:T ratios. In addition, when translating in vitro cytotoxicity data to predict in vivo active clinical dose for blinatumomab, the choice of model leads to a notable difference in dose prediction. The dose predicted by the 2D model aligns better with the approved clinical dose and the prediction is robust under variations in the in vitro to in vivo translation assumptions. In conclusion, the 2D model with trans-avidity to describe trimer formation is an improved approach for TCEs and is likely to produce more accurate predictions to support TCE development.

Applications of Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) in Drug Development for NAFLD and NASH and Its Regulatory Application

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a widely prevalent disease, but approved pharmaceutical treatments are not available. As such, there is great activity within the pharmaceutical industry to accelerate drug development in this area and improve the quality of life and reduce mortality for NASH patients. The use of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) can help make this overall process more efficient. This mechanism-based mathematical modeling approach describes both the pathophysiology of a disease and how pharmacological interventions can modify pathophysiologic mechanisms. Multiple capabilities are provided by QSP modeling, including the use of model predictions to optimize clinical studies. The use of this approach has grown over the last 20 years, motivating discussions between modelers and regulators to agree upon methodologic standards. These include model transparency, documentation, and inclusion of clinical pharmacodynamic biomarkers. Several QSP models have been developed that describe NASH pathophysiology to varying extents. One specific application of NAFLDsym, a QSP model of NASH, is described in this manuscript. Simulations were performed to help understand if patient behaviors could help explain the relatively high rate of fibrosis stage reductions in placebo cohorts. Simulated food intake and body weight fluctuated periodically over time. The relatively slow turnover of liver collagen allowed persistent reductions in predicted fibrosis stage despite return to baseline for liver fat, plasma ALT, and the NAFLD activity score. Mechanistic insights such as this that have been derived from QSP models can help expedite the development of safe and effective treatments for NASH patients.

Early Feasibility Assessment: A Method for Accurately Predicting Biotherapeutic Dosing to Inform Early Drug Discovery Decisions

The application of model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3) approaches in the early stages of drug discovery can help determine feasibility of drugging a target, prioritize between targets, or define optimal drug properties for a target product profile (TPP). However, applying MID3 in early discovery can be challenging due to the lack of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data at this stage. Early Feasibility Assessment (EFA) is the application of mechanistic PKPD models, built from first principles, and parameterized by data that is readily available early in drug discovery to make effective dose predictions. This manuscript demonstrates the ability of EFA to make accurate predictions of clinical effective doses for nine approved biotherapeutics and outlines the potential of extending this approach to novel therapeutics to impact early drug discovery decisions.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Platform Reveals NAFLD Pathophysiological States and Targeting Strategies

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a high global prevalence with a heterogeneous and complex pathophysiology that presents barriers to traditional targeted therapeutic approaches. We describe an integrated quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) platform that comprehensively and unbiasedly defines disease states, in contrast to just individual genes or pathways, that promote NAFLD progression. The QSP platform can be used to predict drugs that normalize these disease states and experimentally test predictions in a human liver acinus microphysiology system (LAMPS) that recapitulates key aspects of NAFLD. Analysis of a 182 patient-derived hepatic RNA-sequencing dataset generated 12 gene signatures mirroring these states. Screening against the LINCS L1000 database led to the identification of drugs predicted to revert these signatures and corresponding disease states. A proof-of-concept study in LAMPS demonstrated mitigation of steatosis, inflammation, and fibrosis, especially with drug combinations. Mechanistically, several structurally diverse drugs were predicted to interact with a subnetwork of nuclear receptors, including pregnane X receptor (PXR; NR1I2), that has evolved to respond to both xenobiotic and endogenous ligands and is intrinsic to NAFLD-associated transcription dysregulation. In conjunction with iPSC-derived cells, this platform has the potential for developing personalized NAFLD therapeutic strategies, informing disease mechanisms, and defining optimal cohorts of patients for clinical trials.

Applications of Quantitative System Pharmacology Modeling to Model-Informed Drug Development

Significant advances in analytical technologies have dramatically improved our ability to deconvolute disease biology at molecular, cellular, and tissue levels. Quantitative system pharmacology (QSP) modeling is a computational framework to systematically integrate pharmaceutical properties of a drug candidate with scientific understanding of that deeper disease etiology, target expression, genetic variability, and human physiological processes, thus enabling more insightful drug development decisions related to efficacy and safety. In this chapter, we discuss the key attributes of QSP models in comparison to traditional models. We discuss a recommended four-step process to construct a QSP model to support drug development decisions. A number of illustrative QSP examples related to high-value drug development questions and decisions impacting target identification, lead generation and optimization, first in human studies, and clinical dose and schedule optimization are covered in the chapter. The future perspectives of QSP in the context of potential regulatory acceptance are also discussed.

From data to QSP models: a pipeline for using Boolean networks for hypothesis inference and dynamic model building

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) models capture the physiological underpinnings driving the response to a drug and express those in a semi-mechanistic way, often involving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The process of developing a QSP model generally starts with the definition of a set of reasonable hypotheses that would support a mechanistic interpretation of the expected response which are used to form a network of interacting elements. This is a hypothesis-driven and knowledge-driven approach, relying on prior information about the structure of the network. However, with recent advances in our ability to generate large datasets rapidly, often in a hypothesis-neutral manner, the opportunity emerges to explore data-driven approaches to establish the network topologies and models in a robust, repeatable manner. In this paper, we explore the possibility of developing complex network representations of physiological responses to pharmaceuticals using a logic-based analysis of available data and then convert the logic relations to dynamic ODE-based models. We discuss an integrated pipeline for converting data to QSP models. This pipeline includes using k-means clustering to binarize continuous data, inferring likely network relationships using a Best-Fit Extension method to create a Boolean network, and finally converting the Boolean network to a continuous ODE model. We utilized an existing QSP model for the dual-affinity re-targeting antibody flotetuzumab to demonstrate the robustness of the process. Key output variables from the QSP model were used to generate a continuous data set for use in the pipeline. This dataset was used to reconstruct a possible model. This reconstruction had no false-positive relationships, and the output of each of the species was similar to that of the original QSP model. This demonstrates the ability to accurately infer relationships in a hypothesis-neutral manner without prior knowledge of a system using this pipeline.

Two heads are better than one: current landscape of integrating QSP and machine learning : An ISoP QSP SIG white paper by the working group on the integration of quantitative systems pharmacology and machine learning

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling is applied to address essential questions in drug development, such as the mechanism of action of a therapeutic agent and the progression of disease. Meanwhile, machine learning (ML) approaches also contribute to answering these questions via the analysis of multi-layer ‘omics’ data such as gene expression, proteomics, metabolomics, and high-throughput imaging. Furthermore, ML approaches can also be applied to aspects of QSP modeling. Both approaches are powerful tools and there is considerable interest in integrating QSP modeling and ML. So far, a few successful implementations have been carried out from which we have learned about how each approach can overcome unique limitations of the other. The QSP + ML working group of the International Society of Pharmacometrics QSP Special Interest Group was convened in September, 2019 to identify and begin realizing new opportunities in QSP and ML integration. The working group, which comprises 21 members representing 18 academic and industry organizations, has identified four categories of current research activity which will be described herein together with case studies of applications to drug development decision making. The working group also concluded that the integration of QSP and ML is still in its early stages of moving from evaluating available technical tools to building case studies. This paper reports on this fast-moving field and serves as a foundation for future codification of best practices.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling of Avadomide-Induced Neutropenia Enables Virtual Clinical Dose and Schedule Finding Studies

Avadomide is a cereblon E3 ligase modulator and a potent antitumor and immunomodulatory agent. Avadomide trials are challenged by neutropenia as a major adverse event and a dose-limiting toxicity. Intermittent dosing schedules supported by preclinical data provide a strategy to reduce frequency and severity of neutropenia; however, the identification of optimal dosing schedules remains a clinical challenge. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling offers opportunities for virtual screening of efficacy and toxicity levels produced by alternative dose and schedule regimens, thereby supporting decision-making in translational drug development. We formulated a QSP model to capture the mechanism of avadomide-induced neutropenia, which involves cereblon-mediated degradation of transcription factor Ikaros, resulting in a maturation block of the neutrophil lineage. The neutropenia model was integrated with avadomide-specific pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models to capture dose-dependent effects. Additionally, we generated a disease-specific virtual patient population to represent the variability in patient characteristics and response to treatment observed for a diffuse large B-cell lymphoma trial cohort. Model utility was demonstrated by simulating the avadomide effect in the virtual population for various dosing schedules and determining the incidence of high-grade neutropenia, its duration, and the probability of recovery to low-grade neutropenia.

Quantitative systems toxicology (QST) reproduces species differences in PF-04895162 liver safety due to combined mitochondrial and bile acid toxicity

Many compounds that appear promising in preclinical species, fail in human clinical trials due to safety concerns. The FDA has strongly encouraged the application of modeling in drug development to improve product safety. This study illustrates how DILIsym, a computational representation of liver injury, was able to reproduce species differences in liver toxicity due to PF-04895162 (ICA-105665). PF-04895162, a drug in development for the treatment of epilepsy, was terminated after transaminase elevations were observed in healthy volunteers (NCT01691274). Liver safety concerns had not been raised in preclinical safety studies. DILIsym, which integrates in vitro data on mechanisms of hepatotoxicity with predicted in vivo liver exposure, reproduced clinical hepatotoxicity and the absence of hepatotoxicity observed in the rat. Simulated differences were multifactorial. Simulated liver exposure was greater in humans than rats. The simulated human hepatotoxicity was demonstrated to be due to the interaction between mitochondrial toxicity and bile acid transporter inhibition; elimination of either mechanism from the simulations abrogated injury. The bile acid contribution occurred despite the fact that the IC50 for bile salt export pump (BSEP) inhibition by PF-04895162 was higher (311 µmol/L) than that has been generally thought to contribute to hepatotoxicity. Modeling even higher PF-04895162 liver exposures than were measured in the rat safety studies aggravated mitochondrial toxicity but did not result in rat hepatotoxicity due to insufficient accumulation of cytotoxic bile acid species. This investigative study highlights the potential for combined in vitro and computational screening methods to identify latent hepatotoxic risks and paves the way for similar and prospective studies.

Systems Pharmacology: Defining the Interactions of Drug Combinations

The majority of diseases are associated with alterations in multiple molecular pathways and complex interactions at the cellular and organ levels. Single-target monotherapies therefore have intrinsic limitations with respect to their maximum therapeutic benefits. The potential of combination drug therapies has received interest for the treatment of many diseases and is well established in some areas, such as oncology. Combination drug treatments may allow us to identify synergistic drug effects, reduce adverse drug reactions, and address variability in disease characteristics between patients. Identification of combination therapies remains challenging. We discuss current state-of-the-art systems pharmacology approaches to enable rational identification of combination therapies. These approaches, which include characterization of mechanisms of disease and drug action at a systems level, can enable understanding of drug interactions at the molecular, cellular, physiological, and organismal levels. Such multiscale understanding can enable precision medicine by promoting the rational development of combination therapy at the level of individual patients for many diseases.

Quantitative translational modeling to facilitate preclinical to clinical efficacy & toxicity translation in oncology

Significant scientific advances in biomedical research have expanded our knowledge of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis, mechanisms of cancer growth, and the importance of the cancer immunity cycle. However, despite scientific advances in the understanding of cancer biology, the success rate of oncology drug development remains the lowest among all therapeutic areas. In this review, some of the key translational drug development objectives in oncology will be outlined. The literature evidence of how mathematical modeling could be used to build a unifying framework to answer these questions will be summarized with recommendations on the strategies for building such a mathematical framework to facilitate the prediction of clinical efficacy and toxicity of investigational antineoplastic agents. Together, the literature evidence suggests that a rigorous and unifying preclinical to clinical translational framework based on mathematical models is extremely valuable for making go/no-go decisions in preclinical development, and for planning early clinical studies.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Approach to Infer Pathways Involved in Complex Disease Phenotypes

Designing effective therapeutic strategies for complex diseases such as cancer and neurodegeneration that involve tissue context-specific interactions among multiple gene products presents a major challenge for precision medicine. Safe and selective pharmacological modulation of individual molecular entities associated with a disease often fails to provide efficacy in the clinic. Thus, development of optimized therapeutic strategies for individual patients with complex diseases requires a more comprehensive, systems-level understanding of disease progression. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is an approach to drug discovery that integrates computational and experimental methods to understand the molecular pathogenesis of a disease at the systems level more completely. Described here is the chemogenomic component of QSP for the inference of biological pathways involved in the modulation of the disease phenotype. The approach involves testing sets of compounds of diverse mechanisms of action in a disease-relevant phenotypic assay, and using the mechanistic information known for the active compounds, to infer pathways and networks associated with the phenotype. The example used here is for monogenic Huntington's disease (HD), which due to the pleiotropic nature of the mutant phenotype has a complex pathogenesis. The overall approach, however, is applicable to any complex disease.

A physiologically based model for tramadol pharmacokinetics in horses

This work proposes an application of a minimal complexity physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to predict tramadol concentration vs time profiles in horses. Tramadol is an opioid analgesic also used for veterinary treatments. Researchers and medical doctors can profit from the application of mathematical models as supporting tools to optimize the pharmacological treatment of animal species. The proposed model is based on physiology but adopts the minimal compartmental architecture necessary to describe the experimental data. The model features a system of ordinary differential equations, where most of the model parameters are either assigned or individualized for a given horse, using literature data and correlations. Conversely, residual parameters, whose value is unknown, are regressed exploiting experimental data. The model proved capable of simulating pharmacokinetic profiles with accuracy. In addition, it provides further insights on un-observable tramadol data, as for instance tramadol concentration in the liver or hepatic metabolism and renal excretion extent.

The promises of quantitative systems pharmacology modelling for drug development

Recent growth in annual new therapeutic entity (NTE) approvals by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) suggests a positive trend in current research and development (R&D) output. Prior to this, the cost of each NTE was considered to be rising exponentially, with compound failure occurring mainly in clinical phases. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modelling, as an additional tool in the drug discovery arsenal, aims to further reduce NTE costs and improve drug development success. Through in silico mathematical modelling, QSP can simulate drug activity as perturbations in biological systems and thus understand the fundamental interactions which drive disease pathology, compound pharmacology and patient response. Here we review QSP, pharmacometrics and systems biology models with respect to the diseases covered as well as their clinical relevance and applications. Overall, the majority of modelling focus was aligned with the priority of drug-discovery and clinical trials. However, a few clinically important disease categories, such as Immune System Diseases and Respiratory Tract Diseases, were poorly covered by computational models. This suggests a possible disconnect between clinical and modelling agendas. As a standard element of the drug discovery pipeline the uptake of QSP might help to increase the efficiency of drug development across all therapeutic indications.