The co-predictive value of a cardiovascular score for CV outcomes in diabetic patients with no atrial fibrillation

Albuminuria improves R2CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting mortality in high cardiovascular risk population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score estimates the risk of cardioembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It also predicts vascular events and death in different clinical settings, even in the absence of AF. The R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, obtained by adding the glomerular filtration rate to CHA₂DS₂-VASc, shows a higher prediction ability for new events and all-cause mortality. The present study aims to assess whether the addition of albuminuria to R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score further improves its discrimination ability in predicting all-cause mortality in a sample of high cardiovascular risk population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective, monocentric, observational study, evaluating a subset of 737 subjects consecutively undergoing to coronary angiography at Coronary Unit of Scientific Institute "Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza" from June 2016 to December 2018. The presence of albuminuria was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (p < 0.0001). Any one-point increase of Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score increased mortality of about 1.5-fold (adjusted HR 1.49; 95%CI: 1.37-1.63; p < 0.0001). Considering tertiles of Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc, the third tertile showed a 9.5-fold increased risk of mortality (HR 9.52; 95% CI: 5.15-17.60, p < 0.001). Comparing the two scores, the Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.751; 95%CI: 0.69-0.81) outperformed the R₂-CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.736; 95%CI: 0.68-0.961) in predicting mortality (delta C-statistic = 0.015; 95%CI: 0.001-0.029). The better prediction ability of the Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was also proven by an IDI of 0.024 (p < 0.0001) and a relative IDI of 24.11% (p < 0.0001), with an NRI = 0.608 (p < 0.00001).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of albuminuria to R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc significantly and independently predicts the risk of all-cause mortality in a sample of high CV risk patients. Moreover, Alb-R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc outperforms R₂CHA₂DS₂-VASc.

Clustering of blood cell count abnormalities and future risk of death

BACKGROUND

The identification of novel predictors of poor outcome may help stratify cardiovascular risk. Aim was to evaluate the individual contribution of blood cell count parameters, as well as their clustering, on the risk of death and cardiovascular events over the long term in the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort.

METHODS

In 30,447 individuals (age 57 ± 8 years), we assessed the incidence of all-cause death (primary endpoint) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, secondary outcome measure) according to absence or presence of one, two and three factors at baseline out of the following: anaemia, leukocytosis and thrombocytosis. Median follow-up was 16 years.

RESULTS

The percentages of all-cause death were 19.5% in individuals without factors, 21.3% in those with one factor, 27.4% with two and 46.4% with three (log-rank test P < .001). The crude incidence of MACE was 28.0%, 29.2%, 35.5% and 57.1%, respectively (log-rank test P < .001). At multivariate analysis, we found a stepwise increase in overall mortality with increasing number of prevalent factors (one factor: HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.31, P < .001; two factors: 1.61, 1.37-1.89, P < .001; three factors: 2.69, 1.44-5.01, P = .002, vs no factor). Similar findings were observed for the incidence of MACE (one factor: adjusted HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.24, P < .001; two factors: 1.52, 1.33-1.76, P < .001; three factors: 2.03, 1.21-3.67, P < .001, vs no factor).

CONCLUSIONS

The easily assessable clustering of anaemia, leukocytosis and thrombocytosis heralds higher incidence of death and adverse cardiovascular events.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score as a Predictor of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Recognition of high-risk patients is important and could lead to a different approach and better treatment. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was originally used to predict cerebral infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is also a useful predictor of outcome in other cardiovascular conditions, independent of AF. Therefore, the aim of our research was to assess the role of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in CKD patients.

METHODS

Stable nondialysis CKD patients were included. At the time of inclusion, medical history data and standard blood results were collected and CHA2DS2-VASc score was calculated. Patients were followed till the same end date, until kidney transplantation or until their death.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven CKD patients were included (60.3 ± 12.8 years, 66% male). Mean follow-up time was 1,696.5 ± 564.6 days. During the follow-up, 21 patients died and 11 because of cardiovascular reasons. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that CHA2DS2-VASc score is a significant predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, in which CHA2DS2-VASc score, serum creatinine, urinary albumin/creatinine, hemoglobin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and intact parathyroid hormone were included, CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of cardiovascular (HR: 2.04, CI: 1.20-3.45, p = 0.008) and all-cause mortality (HR: 2.06, CI: 1.43-2.97, p = 0.001). The same was true after adding total cholesterol, triglycerides, and smoking status to both the analyses.

CONCLUSION

The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a simple, practical, and quick way to identify the risk for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in CKD patients.

Endothelial Dysfunction, Fibrinolytic Activity, and Coagulation Activity in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation According to Type II Diabetes Mellitus Status

Recent findings in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving oral anticoagulation showed that diabetes without insulin therapy has a thromboembolic risk comparable to nondiabetic patients, whereas only diabetic patients on insulin have a heightened thromboembolic risk. We explored possible pathophysiological correlates of such finding on 90 AF patients on oral anticoagulation, divided according to diabetes status (n = 30 without diabetes; n = 29 with diabetes on oral antidiabetic drugs; n = 31 with insulin-requiring diabetes). We assessed von Willebrand Factor (VWF) concentration (VWF:Ag) and activity (VWF R:Co) as measures of endothelial dysfunction; and thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) and prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 (F1+2) levels as markers of fibrinolytic activity and thrombin generation. Values of VWF:Ag, VWF:RCo, and TAFI were similar in the 3 groups. Patients with diabetes requiring insulin had significantly higher levels of F1+2 (median 23.1 pg/ml [interquartile range 17.6; 33.5]) than those without diabetes (16.3 pg/ml [11.5; 22.5], p = 0.036) and diabetic patients on oral antidiabetic drugs (20.6 pg/ml [13.3; 29], p = 0.046). Thus, in AF patients receiving oral anticoagulation, those with diabetes, regardless of the diabetes type (with or without insulin therapy), and those without diabetes have comparable indices of the explored parameters of endothelial dysfunction and fibrinolytic activity. Despite anticoagulant therapy, thrombin generation is selectively higher in diabetic patients' on insulin than in those without diabetes or with diabetes on oral antidiabetic drugs, with no differences between these latter 2 conditions. Thrombin generation might thus be a predominant contributor to the excess of thromboembolic risk in AF patients on insulin-requiring diabetes.

CHA2DS2VASc score and adverse outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation

Aims

The CHA2DS2VASc score is used to evaluate the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We assessed the prognostic yield of CHA2DS2VASc for new-onset atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a non-atrial fibrillation population.

Methods

We analysed a population-based cohort of 22,179 middle-aged individuals with ( n = 3542) and without ( n = 18,367) a history of atrial fibrillation; we grouped the population into five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0–1–2–3–≥4), and compared the risk of major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events and mortality. Furthermore, we analysed the annual incidence of atrial fibrillation across different CHA2DS2VASc strata.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 15 years, 1572 patients (6.9%) had ischaemic strokes, 2162 (9.5%) coronary events and 5899 (26%) died. The cumulative incidence of ischaemic stroke in CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4 subjects without atrial fibrillation was similar to patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2VASc 2, with a 10-year crude incidence rate of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68–1.19) and 1.13 (95% CI 0.93–1.36) ischaemic strokes per 100 patient-years, respectively. CHA2DS2VASc in a non-atrial fibrillation population showed higher predictive accuracy for ischaemic stroke compared with an atrial fibrillation population (area under the curve 0.60 vs. 0.56; P = 0.001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 2 was an independent predictor of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.58; 95% CI 2.42–2.76), cardiovascular death (aHR 3.40; 95% CI 2.98–3.89), ischaemic stroke (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.92–2.53) and coronary events (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.63–2.04). The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation was greater with increasing CHA2DS2VASc strata, with an absolute annual incidence of more than 2% per year if CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 4.

Conclusion

The CHA2DS2VASc score is a sensitive tool for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes in subjects both with and without atrial fibrillation.