An eco-epidemiological modeling approach to investigate dilution effect in two different tick-borne pathosystems

Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence

Anthropogenic disturbances and the subsequent loss of biodiversity are altering species abundances and communities. Since species vary in their pathogen competence, spatio-temporal changes in host assemblages may lead to changes in disease dynamics. We explore how longitudinal changes in bat species assemblages affect the disease dynamics of coronaviruses (CoVs) in more than 2300 cave-dwelling bats captured over two years from five caves in Ghana. This reveals uneven CoV infection patterns between closely related species, with the alpha-CoV 229E-like and SARS-related beta-CoV 2b emerging as multi-host pathogens. Prevalence and infection likelihood for both phylogenetically distinct CoVs is influenced by the abundance of competent species and naïve subadults. Broadly, bat species vary in CoV competence, and highly competent species are more common in less diverse communities, leading to increased CoV prevalence in less diverse bat assemblages. In line with the One Health framework, our work supports the notion that biodiversity conservation may be the most proactive measure to prevent the spread of pathogens with zoonotic potential.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world.

Concurrent dilution and amplification effects in an intraguild predation eco-epidemiological model

The dilution and amplification effects are important concepts in the field of zoonotic diseases. While the dilution effect predicts that pathogen prevalence is negatively correlated with increased species diversity, the opposite trend is observed when the amplification effect occurs. Understanding how interspecific interactions such as predation and competition within a community influence disease transmission is highly relevant. We explore the conditions under which the dilution and amplification effects arise, using compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We formulate an intraguild predation model where each species is divided into two compartments: susceptible and infected individuals. We obtained that increasing predation increases the disease transmission potential of the predator and the density of infected individuals, but decreases the disease transmission potential of the prey, as well as their density. Also, we found that interspecific competition always helps to decrease the number of infected individuals in the population of the two species. Therefore, dilution and amplification effects can be observed simultaneously but depending on different types of cological interactions.

Multiple physiological cohorts comprise seasonal activity of wild Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs

Nymphs of the hard tick Amblyomma americanum (L.) are an important life stage in the maintenance and transmission of tick-borne pathogens. As pathogen composition can vary across developmental cohorts, it is essential to understand the demographic structure of the questing population. Amblyomma americanum nymphs often display a second peak in activity during late summer, but it is unknown whether this peak represents older overwintered ticks or younger newly molted ticks. The objective of this study was to examine the heme concentration in field-captured A. americanum nymphs to determine if the questing population consists of one physiological cohort or multiple cohorts in a season. Ticks were collected from March to August in an old field of primarily non-native grasses, and heme concentration was used to assess physiological age. LOESS modeling depicted that heme concentration in the population declined from March to early July but increased in later sampling sessions. As ticks cannot replenish declining heme stores without a blood meal, a late-summer spike in heme concentration demonstrates that newly molted nymphs are entering the active population. The vector potential of these newly emerging nymphs may differ from those collected earlier in the year as pathogen diversity depends on reservoir host dynamics and timing of larval feeding.

15-year Borrelia prevalence and species distribution monitoring in Ixodes ricinus/inopinatus populations in the city of Hanover, Germany

Lyme borreliosis, caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) spirochaetes, is the most common tick-borne disease (TBD) in the Northern Hemisphere. Rising incidences indicate that its epidemiology may be affected by global changes. Therefore, the current study aimed to assess changes in tick infection rates with Borrelia spp. over a 15-year monitoring period in the city of Hanover, Germany, as a follow-up to previous prevalence studies (years 2005, 2010 and 2015). To assess the epidemiological risk, ticks of the Ixodes ricinus/inopinatus-complex were sampled from April to October 2020 by the flagging method at 10 frequently visited recreation areas in Hanover. Analysis by quantitative real-time PCR of 2100 individual ticks revealed an overall Borrelia prevalence of 25.5% (535/2100). Regarding different tick developmental stages, nymphs showed a significantly lower Borrelia prevalence (18.4% [193/1050]) than adult ticks (32.6% [342/1050]). Comparison with previous years revealed a stable total Borrelia prevalence along with consistent infection rates in the different developmental stages over the 15-year monitoring period. Borrelia species differentiation by Reverse Line Blot was successful in 67.3% of positive ticks collected in 2020, with B. afzelii being the dominating species (59.2% of the differentiated infections), besides B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.), B. garinii, B. valaisiana, B. spielmanii, B. bavariensis and B. bissettiae and the relapsing fever spirochaete B. miyamotoi. Additionally, the proportion of infections attributed to B. afzelii showed a significant increase in 2020 compared to 2005 and 2015 (59.2% vs. 37.6% and 32.0% of successfully differentiated infections, respectively). Coinfections with Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Rickettsia spp. stayed stable comparing 2020 with previous years. Therefore, although changes in the Borrelia prevalence in questing ticks were not observed throughout the 15-year monitoring period, shifts in Borrelia species distribution may alter the epidemiological risk.