Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

Investigating tritrophic interactions using bioenergetic demographic models

A central debate in ecology has been the long-running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species, which can be surprisingly complex. Mechanistic models offer an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of some of this complexity. We present a bioenergetic mechanistic model of a tritrophic system where the primary vegetation resource follows a seasonal growth function, and the herbivore and carnivore species are modeled using two integral projection models (IPMs) with body mass as the phenotypic trait. Within each IPM, the demographic functions are structured according to bioenergetic principles, describing how animals acquire and transform resources into body mass, energy reserves, and breeding potential. We parameterize this model to reproduce the population dynamics of grass, elk, and wolves in northern Yellowstone National Park (USA) and investigate the impact of wolf reintroduction on the system. Our model generated predictions that closely matched the observed population sizes of elk and wolf in Yellowstone prior to and following wolf reintroduction. The introduction of wolves into our basal grass-elk bioenergetic model resulted in a population of 99 wolves and a reduction in elk numbers by 61% (from 14,948 to 5823) at equilibrium. In turn, vegetation biomass increased by approximately 25% in the growing season and more than threefold in the nongrowing season. The addition of wolves to the model caused the elk population to switch from being food-limited to being predator-limited and had a stabilizing effect on elk numbers across different years. Wolf predation also led to a shift in the phenotypic composition of the elk population via a small increase in elk average body mass. Our model represents a novel approach to the study of predator-prey interactions, and demonstrates that explicitly considering and linking bioenergetics, population demography and body mass phenotypes can provide novel insights into the mechanisms behind complex ecosystem processes.

Drivers of a temporal change in the adult sex ratio of a Roosevelt elk (Cervus canadensis roosevelti) population

Ecological processes driving female-skewed adult sex ratios (ASRs; males:females) in populations with polygynous mating systems have been addressed theoretically, but empirical support is scarce. The theoretical framework of the female substitution hypothesis (FSH) asserts that a female-skewed ASR at carrying capacity reflects an overall fitness benefit for females and for males competitive in acquiring access to reproductive females. The FSH predicts that as population abundance increases females should acquire forage more efficiently than males, thereby leading to passive displacement of males. The result is declining ASR associated with differential habitat use by both sexes as food resources are depleted by female scramble competition. We characterized the temporal variation in ASR in a Roosevelt elk population inhabiting the Redwood National and State Parks, California, across 24 years, and determined which of two possible ecological mechanisms was the driver of a declining ASR. The first mechanism explored was that increasing female abundance associated with declining forage in the study area led to the passive displacement of males into the study periphery over time. The second mechanism explored was that a declining ASR was precipitated by a lack of males within the study area and the study periphery. Systematic population surveys from a vehicle were done to estimate abundance and ASR as well as assess male abundance in the study periphery. Forage biomass was estimated in quarter-m2 plots randomly placed in meadows inhabited by female elk. Our multiple regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between abundance and ASR indicating density dependence. We found numerous males in the study periphery when females were abundant. Our least squares models indicated declining food resources across years when female abundance increased. Our results showed that the first, and not the second, ecological mechanism examined was responsible for a female-skewed ASR. Our findings provide empirical support for the theoretical framework of the FSH in a nonmigratory population protected from hunting.

When can cropping rate compensate for increased vigilance?

Herbivores use vigilance to reduce predation risk and interact socially, yet it imposes a foraging efficiency cost. As individuals spend more time with their head up being vigilant, time available to search for and ingest food decreases. We explored whether ungulates can strategically modify behaviours to compensate for vigilance costs via increased cropping rate when food searching time was near-zero and bite sizes were small. We compared the proportion of time individuals had their head up to their cropping rate (bites/observation length) in 271 observations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti). Using a linear mixed-effect model, we estimated the head up–cropping rate relationship and found that elk cropping rate was constant across varying lengths of time spent with their head up, indicating no vigilance compensation occurred via increased cropping rate. We discuss settings when cropping rate compensation is expected and other behaviours that might mitigate vigilance costs.

Influences on food supply from elk abundance and precipitation early in the growing season

Large grazing mammals should negatively affect forage biomass of their food supply, but documentation is lacking in free ranging populations. Furthermore, complications from factors such as weather patterns and spatial heterogeneity might obscure grazing effects on the food supply. We examined influences of Roosevelt elk (Cervus canadensis roosevelti (Merriam, 1897)) abundance and precipitation on forage biomass at two spatial scales; meadows that contained most of the food supply, and sectors nested in meadows. Spatial heterogeneity in forage biomass might also decline with increasing elk abundance. Elk abundance was estimated from population counts and varied 3.9-fold across the 15 years of study in northwestern California, USA. Each January, early in the growing season, we estimated forage biomass in the 50-ha meadow complex used by the elk population. Measures of palatable forage cover and height were taken in 270 ¼ m² plots dispersed throughout sectors. These measurements were then related to dried forage biomass. At both spatial scales, elk abundance was inversely, and precipitation was positively related to forage biomass. At the sector scale, analysis of a linear mixed effect model indicated heterogeneity. In some sectors both predictors were related to forage biomass and in other sectors they were not. Heterogeneity was not from uneven elk grazing as elk grazed sectors in proportion to forage biomass. The varied elk abundance–forage biomass relationships across sectors indicated that spatial heterogeneity declined with increasing elk abundance. Detecting relationships between free ranging ungulate populations and biomass of their food supply is not straightforward.

Investigating the Dynamics of Elk Population Size and Body Mass in a Seasonal Environment Using a Mechanistic Integral Projection Model

Environmentally mediated changes in body size often underlie population responses to environmental change, yet this is not a universal phenomenon. Understanding when phenotypic change underlies population responses to environmental change is important for obtaining insights and robust predictions of population dynamics in a changing world. We develop a dynamic integral projection model that mechanistically links environmental conditions to demographic rates and phenotypic traits (body size) via changes in resource availability and individual energetics. We apply the model to the northern Yellowstone elk population and explore population responses to changing patterns of seasonality, incorporating the interdependence of growth, demography, and density-dependent processes operating through population feedback on available resources. We found that small changes in body size distributions can have large impacts on population dynamics but need not cause population responses to environmental change. Environmental changes that altered demographic rates directly, via increasing or decreasing resource availability, led to large population impacts in the absence of substantial changes to body size distributions. In contrast, environmentally driven shifts in body size distributions could occur with little consequence for population dynamics when the effect of environmental change on resource availability was small and seasonally restricted and when strong density-dependent processes counteracted expected population responses. These findings highlight that a robust understanding of how associations between body size and demography influence population responses to environmental change will require knowledge of the shape of the relationship between phenotypic distributions and vital rates, the population status with regard to its carrying capacity, and importantly the nature of the environmentally driven change in body size and carrying capacity.

Press-Pulse Odocoileus Virginianus Herbivory in Relict Tsuga Canadensis Stands in the Western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA

Ungulate herbivory occurring within a forest plant community’s natural range of variation may help maintain species diversity. However, acute or chronically elevated levels of herbivory can produce dramatic changes in forest communities. For example, chronically high levels of herbivory by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman) in regions of historically low abundance at northern latitudes have dramatically altered forest community composition. In eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis L. Carrière) stands where deer aggregate during winter, high deer use has been associated with a shift towards deciduous species (i.e., maples [Acer spp.]) dominating the regeneration layer. Especially harsh winters can lead to deer population declines, which could facilitate regeneration of species that have been suppressed by browsing, such as hemlock. To enhance our understanding of how fluctuations in herbivory influence regeneration dynamics, we surveyed regeneration and deer use in 15 relict hemlock stands in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan in 2007 and again in 2015. With the exception of small seedlings (0.04–0.24 m height), primarily maples whose abundance increased significantly (p < 0.05), we observed widespread significant declines (p < 0.05) in the abundance of medium (0.25 ≤ 1.4 m height) and large regeneration (>1.4 m tall ≤ 4 cm diameter at breast height) over the study period. Midway through our study period, the region experienced a high severity winter (i.e., “polar vortex”) which resulted in a substantial decline in the white-tailed deer population. Given the dominance of maples and dearth of hemlock in the seedling layer, the decline in the deer population may fail to forestall or possibly hasten the trend towards maple dominance of the regeneration layer as these stands recover from pulses of acute herbivory associated with high-severity winters and the press of chronically high herbivory that precedes them.

Unpacking multi-trophic herbivore-grass-endophyte interactions: feedbacks across different scales in vegetation responses to Soay sheep herbivory

Grazing can induce changes in both plant productivity and nutritional quality, which may subsequently influence herbivore carrying capacity. While research on Soay sheep (Ovis aries L.) dynamics on Hirta Island in the St. Kilda archipelago has elucidated the complexity of population drivers, including parasites, the role of herbivore-generated feedbacks as an intrinsic regulating factor remains unclear. The sheep lack large predators and every 3-9 years undergo population crashes (overcompensatory mortality). We investigated the effects of grazing on (1) sward productivity and (2) quality (toxicity) of the primary forage species, red fescue (Festuca rubra L.), which is highly infected by an alkaloid-synthesizing fungal endophyte. Grazing had a negative impact on both forage quantity and quality. At higher sheep densities, impacts on sward growth were magnified, resulting in a nonlinear relationship with plant productivity. Simultaneously, endophyte hyphal load (and by inference, toxicity) peaked close to the time of a crash. A greenhouse experiment showed that alkaloid concentration in F. rubra increased in response to artificial defoliation. We conclude that at high sheep densities, grazing-mediated reductions in productivity, together with sustained alkaloid production, are likely to influence sheep dynamics. Future research should consider the interactive effects of forage toxicity, quantity, and nutritional content.

Male group size, female distribution and changes in sexual segregation by Roosevelt elk

Sexual segregation, or the differential use of space by males and females, is hypothesized to be a function of body size dimorphism. Sexual segregation can also manifest at small (social segregation) and large (habitat segregation) spatial scales for a variety of reasons. Furthermore, the connection between small- and large-scale sexual segregation has rarely been addressed. We studied a population of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) across 21 years in north coastal California, USA, to assess small- and large-scale sexual segregation in winter. We hypothesized that male group size would associate with small-scale segregation and that a change in female distribution would associate with large-scale segregation. Variation in forage biomass might also be coupled to small and large-scale sexual segregation. Our findings were consistent with male group size associating with small-scale segregation and a change in female distribution associating with large-scale segregation. Females appeared to avoid large groups comprised of socially dominant males. Males appeared to occupy a habitat vacated by females because of a wider forage niche, greater tolerance to lethal risks, and, perhaps, to reduce encounters with other elk. Sexual segregation at both spatial scales was a poor predictor of forage biomass. Size dimorphism was coupled to change in sexual segregation at small and large spatial scales. Small scale segregation can seemingly manifest when all forage habitat is occupied by females and large scale segregation might happen when some forage habitat is not occupied by females.

Influences of population pressure change on vegetation greenness in China's mountainous areas

Mountainous areas in China account for two‐thirds of the total land area. Due to rapid urbanization, rural population emigration in China's mountainous areas is very significant. This raises the question to which degree such population emigration influences the vegetation greenness in these areas. In this study, 9,753 sample areas (each sample measured about 64 square kilometers) were randomly selected, and the influences of population emigration (population pressure change) on vegetation greenness during 2000–2010 were quantitatively expressed by the multivariate linear regression (MLR) model, using census data under the condition of controlling the natural elements such as climatic and landform factors. The results indicate that the vegetation index in the past 10 years has presented an increasing overall trend, albeit with local decrease in some regions. The combined area of the regions with improved vegetation accounted for 81.7% of the total mountainous areas in China. From 2000 to 2010, the rural population significantly decreased, with most significant decreases in the northern and central areas (17.2% and 16.8%, respectively). In China's mountainous areas and in most of the subregions, population emigration has significant impacts on vegetation change. In different subregions, population decrease differently influenced vegetation greenness, and the marginal effect of population decrease on vegetation change presented obvious differences from north to south. In the southwest, on the premise of controlling other factors, a population decrease by one unit could increase the slope of vegetation change by 16.4%; in contrast, in the southeastern, northern, northeastern, and central area, the proportion was about 15.5%, 10.6%, 9.7%, and 7.5%, respectively, for improving the trend of NDVI variation.