Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer

Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions

Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no 'rule of thumb' for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

A historic religious sanctuary may have preserved ancestral genetics of Japanese sika deer (Cervus nippon)

Deer have been a major resource for human populations for thousands of years. Anthropogenic activities, such as hunting, have influenced the genetic structure and distribution of deer populations. In Japan, wild Japanese sika deer (Cervus nippon) have been hunted since ancient times but have also been historically protected as sacred animals in several sanctuaries. Sika deer have been protected for over a thousand years in the religious sanctuary around the Kasuga Taisha Shrine on the Kii Peninsula, located in the center of Japan. Here, we used short sequence repeats (SSR) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to investigate the genetic diversity, population structure, and demography of Japanese sika deer inhabiting the Kii Peninsula, Japan, and discuss possible anthropogenic influences. Using SSR, three distinct genetic groups were distinguished on the Kii Peninsula: an Eastern genetic group, a Western genetic group, and an isolated genetic group with individuals in the religious sanctuary of Kasuga Taisha Shrine in Nara city. The isolated genetic sanctuary group had only the mtDNA haplotype S4. The SSR genotype data suggested a newer divergence time of the genetic groups of the religious sanctuary than would have occurred as a result of Late Quaternary climate change. This time scale coincided with the establishment of the sanctuary with Kasuga Taisha Shrine. Thus, the religious protection conserved genetic variation over a thousand years.

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human-wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human-wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human-wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human-wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human-wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human-wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer

Ongoing climate change and land‐use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant–herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land‐use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land‐use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land‐use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land‐use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land‐use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land‐use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.