Use of hidden Markov capture-recapture models to estimate abundance in the presence of uncertainty: Application to the estimation of prevalence of hybrids in animal populations

The population bottleneck of the Iberian wolf impacted genetic diversity but not admixture with domestic dogs: A temporal genomic approach

After decades of intense persecution, the Iberian wolf subspecies faced a severe bottleneck in the 1970s that considerably reduced its range and population size, nearly leading to its extinction in central and southern Iberian Peninsula. Such population decline could have impacted the genetic diversity of Iberian wolves through different processes, namely genetic drift and dynamics of hybridization with domestic dogs. By contrasting the genomes of 68 contemporary with 54 historical samples spanning the periods before and immediately after the 1970s bottleneck, we found evidence of its impact on genetic diversity and dynamics of wolf-dog hybridization. Our genome-wide assessment revealed that wolves and dogs form two well-differentiated genetic groups in Iberia and that hybridization rates did not increase during the bottleneck. However, an increased number of hybrid individuals was found over time during the population re-expansion, particularly at the edge of the wolf range. We estimated a low percentage of dog ancestry (~1.4%) in historical samples, suggesting that dog introgression was not a key driver for wolf extinction in central and southern Iberia. Our findings also unveil a significant decline in genetic diversity in contemporary samples, with the highest proportion of homozygous segments in the genome being recently inherited. Overall, our study provides unprecedented insight into the impact of a sharp decline on the Iberian wolf genome and refines our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary drivers of wolf-dog hybridization in the wild.

A standardized approach to empirically define reliable assignment thresholds and appropriate management categories in deeply introgressed populations

Anthropogenic hybridization is recognized as a major threat to the long-term survival of natural populations. While identifying F1 hybrids might be simple, the detection of older admixed individuals is far from trivial and it is still debated whether they should be targets of management. Examples of anthropogenic hybridization have been described between wolves and domestic dogs, with numerous cases detected in the Italian wolf population. After selecting appropriate wild and domestic reference populations, we used empirical and simulated 39-autosomal microsatellite genotypes, Bayesian assignment and performance analyses to develop a workflow to detect different levels of wolf x dog admixture. Membership proportions to the wild cluster (q_iw) and performance indexes identified two q-thresholds which allowed to efficiently classify the analysed genotypes into three assignment classes: pure (with no or negligible domestic ancestry), older admixed (with a marginal domestic ancestry) and recent admixed (with a clearly detectable domestic ancestry) animals. Based on their potential to spread domestic variants, such classes were used to define three corresponding management categories: operational pure, introgressed and operational hybrid individuals. Our multiple-criteria approach can help wildlife managers and decision makers in more efficiently targeting the available resources for the long-term conservation of species threatened by anthropogenic hybridization.