Rejection of Schmidt et al.'s estimators for bear population size

Estimating brown bear abundance and harvest rate on the southern Alaska Peninsula

Abundance estimation of hunted brown bear populations should occur on the same geographic scale as harvest data analyses for estimation of harvest rate. Estimated harvest rates are an important statistic for managing hunted bear populations. In Alaska, harvest data is collected over large geographic units, called Game Management Units (GMUs) and sub-GMUs. These sub GMUs often exceed 10,000 km². In the spring of 2002, we conducted an aerial survey of GMU 9D (12,600 km²) and GMU 10 (4,070 km²) using distance sampling with mark-resight data. We used a mark-resight distance sampling method with a two-piece normal detection function to estimate brown bear abundance as 1,682.9 (SE = 174.29) and 316.9 (SE = 48.25) for GMU 9D and GMU 10, respectively. We used reported hunter harvest to estimate harvest rates of 4.35% (SE = 0.45%) and 3.06% (SE = 0.47%) for GMU 9D and GMU 10, respectively. Management objective for these units support sustained, high quality hunting opportunity which harvest data indicate are met with an annual harvest rate of approximately 5–6% or less.