Predicting the suitable habitats of parasitic desert species based on a niche model with Haloxylon ammodendron and Cistanche deserticola as examples

Effect of global warming on the potential distribution of a holoparasitic plant (Phelypaea tournefortii): both climate and host distribution matter

Phelypaea tournefortii (Orobanchaceae) primarily occurs in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and N Iran) and Turkey. This perennial, holoparasitic herb is achlorophyllous and possesses one of the most intense red flowers among all plants worldwide. It occurs as a parasite on the roots of several Tanacetum (Asteraceae) species and prefers steppe and semi-arid habitats. Climate change may affect holoparasites both directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly as a consequence of its effects on their host plants and habitats. In this study, we used the ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the possible effects of climate change on P. tournefortii and to evaluate the effect of its parasitic relationships with two preferred host species on the chances of survival of this species under global warming. We used four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and three different simulations (CNRM, GISS-E2, INM). We modeled the species' current and future distribution using the maximum entropy method implemented in MaxEnt using seven bioclimatic variables and species occurrence records (Phelypaea tournefortii - 63 records, Tanacetum argyrophyllum - 40, Tanacetum chiliophyllum - 21). According to our analyses, P. tournefortii will likely contract its geographical range remarkably. In response to global warming, the coverage of the species' suitable niches will decrease by at least 34%, especially in central and southern Armenia, Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan, northern Iran, and NE Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, the species will go completely extinct. Additionally, the studied plant's hosts will lose at least 36% of currently suitable niches boosting the range contraction of P. tournefortii. The GISS-E2 scenario will be least damaging, while the CNRM will be most damaging to climate change for studied species. Our study shows the importance of including ecological data in niche models to obtain more reliable predictions of the future distribution of parasitic plants.

Within-crown plasticity of hydraulic properties influence branch dieback patterns of two woody plants under experimental drought conditions

In recent year, widespread declines of Populus bolleana Lauche trees (P. bolleana, which dieback from the top down) and Haloxylon ammodendron shrubs (H. ammodendron, which dieback starting from their outer canopy) have occurred. To investigate how both intra-canopy hydraulic changes and plasticity in hydraulic properties create differences in vulnerability between these two species, we conducted a drought simulation field experiment. We analyzed branch hydraulic vulnerability, leaf water potential (Ψ), photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), non-structural carbohydrate (NSCs) contents and morphological traits of the plants as the plants underwent a partial canopy dieback. Our results showed that: (1) the hydraulic architecture was very different between the two life forms; (2) H. ammodendron exhibited a drought tolerance response with weak stomatal control, and thus a sharp decline in Ψ while P. bolleana showed a drought avoidance response with tighter stomatal control that maintained a relatively stable Ψ; (3) the Ψ of H. ammodendron showed relative consistent symptoms of drought stress with increasing plant stature, but the Ψ of P. bolleana showed greater drought stress in higher portions of the crown; (4) prolonged drought caused P. bolleana to consume and H. ammodendron to accumulate NSCs in the branches of their upper canopy. Thus, the prolonged drought caused the shoots of the upper canopy of P. bolleana to experience greater vulnerability leading to dieback of the upper branches first, while all the twigs of the outer canopy of H. ammodendron experienced nearly identical degrees of vulnerability, and thus dieback occurred uniformly. Our results indicate that intra-canopy hydraulic change and their plasticity under drought was the main cause of the observed canopy dieback patterns in both species. However, more work is needed to further establish that hydraulic limitation as a function of plant stature was the sole mechanism for causing the divergent canopy dieback patterns.

Predicting the potential distribution of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in China under climate change

Climate change affects parasitic plants and their hosts on distributions. However, little is known about how parasites and their hosts shift in distribution, and niche overlap in response to global change remains unclear to date. Here, the potential distribution and habitat suitability of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in northern China were predicted using MaxEnt based on occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The results indicated that (1) Temperature annual range (Bio7) and Precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the common key climatic factors influencing distribution (percentage contribution > 10%) for Cynomorium songaricum vs. Nitraria sibirica (i.e., parasite vs. host); Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) for Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica; Bio4 for Cistanche deserticola vs. Haloxylon ammodendron; Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18) for Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima. Accordingly, different parasite-host pairs share to varying degree the common climatic factors. (2) Currently, these holoparasites had small suitable habitats (i.e., moderately and highly) (0.97-3.77%), with few highly suitable habitats (0.19-0.81%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats would change to some extent; their distribution shifts fell into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica and Cistanche mongolica) and fluctuating type (Cynomorium songaricum and Cistanche deserticola). In contrast, the hosts' current suitable habitats (1.42-13.43%) varied greatly, with highly restricted suitable habitats (0.18-1.00%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats presented different trends: growing type (Nitraria sibirica), declining type (Haloxylon ammodendron) and fluctuating type (the other hosts). (3) The niche overlaps between parasites and hosts differed significantly in the future, which can be grouped into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica, Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima), and fluctuating type (the others). Such niche overlap asynchronies may result in severe spatial limitations of parasites under future climate conditions. Our findings indicate that climate factors restricting parasites and hosts' distributions, niche overlaps between them, together with parasitic species identity, may jointly influence the suitable habitats of parasitic plants. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the threatened holoparasites themselves in conjunction with their suitable habitats and the parasite-host association when developing conservation planning in the future.