Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Habitat Suitability, Distribution Modelling and GAP Analysis of Przewalski's Gazelle Conservation

Although the population of Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) has increased, this species is still threatened by a variety of risk factors, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, grassland fencing, grazing conflict, the segmentation of different populations, and declines in population genetic diversity. In order to determine the potential suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle and find a new suitable location for its conservation translocation, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats in Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, and the Ordos Plateau in Inner Mongolia and other regions with historical distribution records. On the basis of the MaxEnt model's prediction of the potential suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle, we used GAP analysis to determine the existing protection gaps and provide a new reference for the future protection of Przewalski's gazelle. We found that altitude, temperature, vegetation type, and distance from roads were the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Przewalski's gazelle. Most of the suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle is confined around Qinghai Lake. GAP analysis revealed that most of the suitable habitats of Przewalski's gazelle are not included in the established reserves, and Qinghai Lake National Nature Reserve only covers a small area around Qinghai Lake. The whole reserve only accounts for 7.11% of the area of the suitable habitat for Przewalski's gazelle and 15.79% of the area of the highly suitable habitat for Przewalski's gazelle. We suggest that conservation translocation for Przewalski's gazelle should be put on the agenda. It is necessary to consider reintroducing these gazelles into their potential suitable habitats as a feasible way of establishing new populations and saving this species.

The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling

Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high medicinal development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting the habitat distribution and survival of species. We predicted the current and future distribution areas of suitable habitats for C. lineare, analyzed the importance of environmental variables in influencing habitat shifts, and described the alterations to suitable habitats of C. lineare in different periods (modern, 2050s, and 2070s) and scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show that, under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. lineare is about 2,220,900 km2, of which the highly suitable portion amounts to ca. 292,600 km2. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and mean daily temperature range are the chief environmental variables affecting the distribution of habitat for C. lineare. In the same period, with rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, the total suitable area will increase. In general, under future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. lineare will gradually migrate to the west and north, and its total suitable area will also expand. The results of this experiment can be used for the conservation and management of the wild resources of C. lineare. We can choose suitable growth areas to protect the medicinal resources of C. lineare through in situ conservation and artificial breeding.

N, Subedi S, Gautam S, Ayer S, Bayne E. Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) conservation in Bardia National Park, Nepal: Assessing population structure and habitat characteristics along the river channel amidst infrastructure development

Nepal initiated numerous hydropower and irrigation-related infrastructure projects to enhance and promote green energy, water security, and agricultural productivity. However, these projects may pose risks to natural habitats and the well-being of aquatic fauna, leading to significant effects on delicate ecosystems. To understand these potential impacts, it is crucial to gather reliable baseline data on the population status and habitat characteristics of species. This study specifically focuses on Gharials (Gavialis gangeticus), a critically endangered species. We recorded data on pre-determined habitat variables at stations spaced 500 m apart along the two major river streams of Bardia National Park, as well as at locations where Gharials were sighted between February and March 2023. We used binary logistic regression with a logit link function to investigate the habitat characteristics related to the occurrence of Gharials. The presence/absence of Gharials at sampling points served as the dependent variable, while 10 other predetermined variables (ecological variables and disturbance variables) served as independent variables. Our study recorded 23 Gharials, comprising 14 adults, six sub-adults, and three juveniles, with a sex ratio of 55.56 males per 100 females. Most individuals (83%) were found basking. Among the 10 habitat predictors, three variables (mid-river depth, river width, and water temperature) were significantly correlated (p < .05) with the probability of Gharial occurrence. The model shows that Gharial detection probability increases with greater mid-river depth and width and lower water temperature. This study establishes a population baseline for Gharials within the river system before the construction of large infrastructure projects, such as dams and irrigation canals. It also recommends continuous monitoring of Gharial populations after water release and/or diversion to evaluate the impact of large infrastructure projects on the population and their associated habitat characteristics. This will help enable more informed and targeted conservation efforts.

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.

Modeling of Valeriana wallichii Habitat Suitability and Niche Dynamics in the Himalayan Region under Anticipated Climate Change

An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases necessitates the use of species distribution models (SDMs) in modeling suitable habitats and projecting the impact of climate change on the future range shifts of the species. The present study is based on the BIOMOD ensemble approach to map the currently suitable habitats and predict the impact of climate change on the niche shift of Valeriana wallichii. We also studied its niche dynamics using the ecospat package in R software. Values of the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were highly significant (>0.9), which shows that the model has run better. From 19 different bioclimatic variables, only 8 were retained after correlation, among which bio_17 (precipitation of driest quarter), bio_1 (annual mean temperature), and bio_12 (annual mean precipitation) received the highest gain. Under future climate change, the suitable habitats will be significantly contracted by −94% (under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 for 2070) and −80.22% (under RCP 8.5 for 2050). There is a slight increase in habitat suitability by +16.69% (RCP 4.5 for 2050) and +8.9% (RCP 8.5 for 2050) under future climate change scenarios. The equivalency and similarity tests of niche dynamics show that the habitat suitability for current and future climatic scenarios is comparable but not identical. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) analysis shows that climatic conditions will be severely affected between current and future scenarios. From this study, we conclude that the habitats of Valeriana wallichii are highly vulnerable to climate shifts. This study can be used to alleviate the threat to this plant by documenting the unexplored populations, restoring the degraded habitats through rewilding, and launching species recovery plans in the natural habitats.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.