Biases in studies of spatial patterns in insect herbivory

Global insect herbivory and its response to climate change

Herbivorous insects consume a large proportion of the energy flow in terrestrial ecosystems and play a major role in the dynamics of plant populations and communities. However, high-resolution, quantitative predictions of the global patterns of insect herbivory and their potential underlying drivers remain elusive. Here, we compiled and analyzed a dataset consisting of 9,682 records of the severity of insect herbivory from across natural communities worldwide to quantify its global patterns and environmental determinants. Global mapping revealed strong spatial variation in insect herbivory at the global scale, showing that insect herbivory did not significantly vary with latitude for herbaceous plants but increased with latitude for woody plants. We found that the cation-exchange capacity in soil was a main predictor of levels of herbivory on herbaceous plants, while climate largely determined herbivory on woody plants. We next used well-established scenarios for future climate change to forecast how spatial patterns of insect herbivory may be expected to change with climate change across the world. We project that herbivore pressure will intensify on herbaceous plants worldwide but would likely only increase in certain biomes (e.g., northern coniferous forests) for woody plants. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the spatial pattern of insect herbivory, which enables a more accurate prediction of the vulnerabilities of plant communities and ecosystem functions in the Anthropocene.

Insect herbivory on woody broadleaf seedlings along a subtropical elevational gradient supports the resource concentration hypothesis

PREMISE

Theories of plant-herbivore interactions hold that seedlings are more vulnerable to herbivory in warmer and more stable climates at lower elevations. Hypotheses of plant apparency, resource concentration, and resource availability have been proposed to explain variability in leaf herbivory. However, seasonal differences in the effects of these hypotheses on leaf herbivory on seedlings remain unclear.

METHODS

We evaluated the three herbivory hypotheses by comparing the percentage and frequency of leaf herbivory in understory broadleaf seedlings in a subtropical forest in May (spring) and October (autumn) along an elevational gradient (290-1370 m a.s.l.). In total, we measured 2890 leaves across 696 seedlings belonging to 95 species and used beta regressions to test the effects of plant apparency (e.g., leaf area, seedling height), resource concentration (e.g., plant species diversity), and resource availability (e.g., canopy openness, soil available N and P) on leaf herbivory.

RESULTS

Seedlings exhibited unimodal patterns of leaf herbivory along elevation, with drivers of leaf herbivory varying by the month. Variation in the frequency of leaf herbivory was best explained by the resource concentration hypothesis (e.g., plant species diversity) in both months, and herbivory was lower on seedlings in sites with higher plant diversity. Plant apparency hypothesis (e.g., leaf area, seedling height) was weakly supported only in spring, and the evidence for resource availability hypothesis (e.g., canopy openness, soil nutrients) was mixed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the resource concentration hypothesis and reveals the importance of seasonal difference on understanding leaf herbivory patterns and the drivers of plant diversity in subtropical forests.

Eastern monarch larval performance may not be affected by shifts in phenological synchrony with milkweed

Interacting species are experiencing disruptions in the relative timing of their key life‐history events due to climate change. These shifts can sometimes be detrimental to the fitness of the consumer in trophic interactions but not always.

The potential consequences of phenological asynchrony for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and its host plant (Asclepias spp.) have not been well‐studied. Given that plants generally undergo seasonal declines in quality, if climate change delays the timing of the larval stage relative to the availability of younger milkweed plants, monarch performance could be negatively affected.

Here, we explore the potential consequences for the eastern monarch population due to probable asynchrony with milkweed. We used field surveys around Ottawa, Canada, to determine monarch oviposition preference on common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) plants and the seasonal availability of these plants. To determine the potential fitness consequences when females oviposit on nonpreferred plants, we conducted a field experiment to assess the effect of milkweed size on monarch larval performance (e.g., development time and final size).

Preferred oviposition plants (earlier stages of development and better condition) were consistently available in large proportion over the summer season. We also found that declines in leaf quality (more latex and thicker leaves) with plant size did not translate into decreases in larval performance.

Our results suggest that even if asynchrony of the monarch–milkweed interaction occurs due to climate change, the larval stage of the eastern monarch may not face negative consequences. Future studies should determine how the relative timing of the interaction will change in the region.

Quantifying research waste in ecology

Research inefficiencies can generate huge waste: evidence from biomedical research has shown that most research is avoidably wasted and steps have been taken to tackle this costly problem. Although other scientific fields could also benefit from identifying and quantifying waste and acting to reduce it, no other estimates of research waste are available. Given that ecological issues interweave most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, we argue that tackling research waste in ecology should be prioritized. Our study leads the way. We estimate components of waste in ecological research based on a literature review and a meta-analysis. Shockingly, our results suggest only 11-18% of conducted ecological research reaches its full informative value. All actors within the research system-including academic institutions, policymakers, funders and publishers-have a duty towards science, the environment, study organisms and the public, to urgently act and reduce this considerable yet preventable loss. We discuss potential ways forward and call for two major actions: (1) further research into waste in ecology (and beyond); (2) focused development and implementation of solutions to reduce unused potential of ecological research.

Latitudinal gradient in the intensity of biotic interactions in terrestrial ecosystems: Sources of variation and differences from the diversity gradient revealed by meta-analysis

The Latitudinal Biotic Interaction Hypothesis (LBIH) states that the intensity of biotic interactions increases from high to low latitudes. This hypothesis, which may partly explain latitudinal gradients in biodiversity, remains hotly debated, largely due to variable outcomes of published studies. We used meta-analysis to identify the scope of the LBIH in terrestrial ecosystems. For this purpose, we explored the sources of variation in the strength of latitudinal changes in herbivory, carnivory and parasitism (119 publications) and compared these gradients with gradients in the diversity of the respective groups of animals (102 publications). Overall, both herbivory and carnivory decreased towards the poles, while parasitism increased. The latitudinal gradient in herbivory and carnivory was threefold stronger above 50-60° than at lower latitudes and was significant due to interactions involving ectothermic consumers, studies using standardised prey (i.e. prey lacking local anti-predator adaptations) and studies aimed at testing LBIH. The poleward decrease in biodiversity did not differ between ectothermic and endothermic animals or among climate zones and was fourfold stronger than decrease in herbivory and carnivory. The discovered differences between the gradients in biotic interactions and biodiversity suggest that these two global macroecological patterns are likely shaped by different factors.

Biases in ecological research: attitudes of scientists and ways of control

The properties of the human mind affect the quality of scientific knowledge through the insertion of unconscious biases during the research process. These biases frequently cause overestimation of the effects under study, thereby violating the reproducibility of the research and potentially leading to incorrect conclusions in subsequent research syntheses. We explored the level of knowledge about biases and attitudes to this problem by analysing 308 responses of ecology scientists to a specifically developed survey. We show that knowledge about biases and attitude towards biases depend on the scientist’s career stage, gender and affiliation country. Early career scientists are more concerned about biases, know more about measures to avoid biases, and twice more frequently have learned about biases from their university courses when compared with senior scientists. The respondents believe that their own studies are less prone to biases than are studies by other scientists, which hampers the control of biases in one’s own research. We conclude that education about biases is necessary, but not yet sufficient, to avoid biases because the unconscious origin of biases necessitates external intervention to combat them. Obligatory reporting of measures taken against biases in all relevant manuscripts will likely enhance the reproducibility of scientific results.

Background insect herbivory increases with local elevation but makes minor contribution to element cycling along natural gradients in the Subarctic

Herbivores can exert major controls over biogeochemical cycling. As invertebrates are highly sensitive to temperature shifts (ectothermal), the abundances of insects in high-latitude systems, where climate warming is rapid, is expected to increase. In subarctic mountain birch forests, research has focussed on geometrid moth outbreaks, while the contribution of background insect herbivory (BIH) to elemental cycling is poorly constrained. In northern Sweden, we estimated BIH along 9 elevational gradients distributed across a gradient in regional elevation, temperature, and precipitation to allow evaluation of consistency in local versus regional variation. We converted foliar loss via BIH to fluxes of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) from the birch canopy to the soil to compare with other relevant soil inputs of the same elements and assessed different abiotic and biotic drivers of the observed variability. We found that leaf area loss due to BIH was ~1.6% on average. This is comparable to estimates from tundra, but considerably lower than ecosystems at lower latitudes. The C, N, and P fluxes from canopy to soil associated with BIH were 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than the soil input from senesced litter and external nutrient sources such as biological N fixation, atmospheric deposition of N, and P weathering estimated from the literature. Despite the minor contribution to overall elemental cycling in subarctic birch forests, the higher quality and earlier timing of the input of herbivore deposits to soils compared to senesced litter may make this contribution disproportionally important for various ecosystem functions. BIH increased significantly with leaf N content as well as local elevation along each transect, yet showed no significant relationship with temperature or humidity, nor the commonly used temperature proxy, absolute elevation. The lack of consistency between the local and regional elevational trends calls for caution when using elevation gradients as climate proxies.

Biases in estimation of insect herbivory from herbarium specimens

Information regarding plant damage by insects in the past is essential to explore impacts of climate change on herbivory. We asked whether insect herbivory measured from herbarium specimens reflects the levels of herbivory occurring in nature at the time of herbarium sampling. We compared herbivory measurements between herbarium specimens collected by botany students and ecological samples collected simultaneously by the authors by a method that minimized unconscious biases, and asked herbarium curators to select one of two plant specimens, which differed in leaf damage, for their collections. Both collectors and curators generally preferred specimens with lesser leaf damage, but the strength of this preference varied among persons. In addition, the differences in measured leaf damage between ecological samples and herbarium specimens varied among plant species and increased with the increase in field herbivory. Consequently, leaf damage in herbarium specimens did not correlate with the actual level of herbivory. We conclude that studies of herbarium specimens produce biased information on past levels of herbivory, because leaf damage measured from herbarium specimens not only underestimates field herbivory, but it is not proportional to the level of damage occurring in nature due to multiple factors that cannot be controlled in data analysis.

Associational effects of plant ontogeny on damage by a specialist insect herbivore

Intraspecific variation in plant traits is a major cause of variation in herbivore feeding and performance. Plant defensive traits change as a plant grows, such that ontogeny may account for a substantial portion of intraspecific trait variation. We tested how the ontogenic stage of an individual plant, of an individual in the context of its neighboring plants, and of a patch of plants with mixed or uniform stages affect plant-herbivore interactions. To do this, we conducted an experimental study of the interactions between Lepidium draba, a perennial brassicaceous weed, and Plutella xylostella, a common herbivore of L. draba. We found that L. draba foliar glucosinolates, secondary metabolites often implicated in defense, decreased in concentration with plant age. In single-stage patches, herbivores performed similarly on L. draba plants of different ages. Furthermore, we found no difference in the cumulative performance of herbivores reared on mixed- or even-staged patches of L. draba. However, in mixed-stage patches, the damage experienced by a focal plant depended on the stage of neighboring plants, suggesting a preference hierarchy of the herbivore among plant stages. In our study, the amount of herbivory depended on the ontogenic neighborhood in which the plant grew. However, from the herbivore's perspective, variation in plant ontogenic stage was unimportant to its success in terms of feeding rate and final weight.

Bird predation does not explain spatial variation in insect herbivory in a forest–tundra ecotone

The contribution of bird predation to the spatial variations in insect herbivory remains imperfectly understood, especially in Arctic ecosystems. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that the differences in insect herbivory between tundra and forest biomes, and between plant life-forms in these biomes, are associated with differences in the intensity of bird predation on defoliating insects. We observed substantial variation in herbivory (0% to 20% of foliage lost) among nine forest, mountain tundra, and lowland tundra sites in the Kola Peninsula (northwestern Russia) and among five woody plant species, but we found no consistent differences in herbivory between biomes and between plant life-forms. Bird attacks on artificial caterpillars were tenfold more frequent in forest than in tundra, while bird exclusion effects on herbivory did not differ between biomes, and the intensities of bird predation measured by these two methods were not correlated. Bird exclusion led to increases in insect herbivory, and this effect was significant in trees and tall shrubs but was not significant in dwarf shrubs in either forest or tundra sites. Bird predation, as measured in bird exclusion experiments, increased with an increase in the level of foliar damage inflicted by insects in forests but not in tundra habitats. We conclude that bird predation generally decreases plant losses to insects in both forest and tundra habitats, but birds are unlikely to shape the spatial patterns of plant losses to insects in Arctic ecosystems.