Evaluating vital rate contributions to greater sage‐grouse population dynamics to inform conservation

Sex-specific recruitment rates contribute to male-biased sex ratio in Adélie penguins

Sex-related differences in vital rates that drive population change reflect the basic life history of a species. However, for visually monomorphic bird species, determining the effect of sex on demographics can be a challenge. In this study, we investigated the effect of sex on apparent survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity in the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), a monochromatic, slightly size dimorphic species with known age, known sex, and known breeding history data collected during 1996-2019 (n = 2127 birds) from three breeding colonies on Ross Island, Antarctica. Using a multistate capture-mark-recapture maximum-likelihood model, we estimated apparent survival (S ^ ), recapture (resighting) probability (p ^ ), and the probability of transitioning among breeding states and moving between colonies (ψ ^ ; colony-specific non-juvenile pre-breeders, breeders, and non-breeders). Survival rate varied by breeding status and colony, but not sex, and pre-breeders had higher survival rates than breeders and non-breeders. Females had a higher probability of recruiting into the breeding population each year and may enter the breeding pool at younger ages. In contrast, both sexes had the same probability of breeding from year to year once they had recruited. Although we detected no direct sex effects on survival, the variation in recruitment probability and age-at-first reproduction, along with lower survival rates of breeders compared to pre-breeders, likely leads to shorter lifespans for females. This is supported by our findings of a male-biased mean adult sex ratio (ASR) of 1.4 males for every female (x ^ proportion of males = 0.57, SD = 0.07) across all colonies and years in this metapopulation. Our study illustrates how important it can be to disentangle sex-related variation in population vital rates, particularly for species with complex life histories and demographic dynamics.

Backpack satellite transmitters reduce survival but not nesting propensity or success of greater sage-grouse

Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial-temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring-summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%-82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.

Wildfire immediately reduces nest and adult survival of greater sage-grouse

Wildfire events are becoming more frequent and severe on a global scale. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and the presence of pyrophytic invasive grasses are contributing to the degradation of native vegetation communities. Within the Great Basin region of the western U.S., increasing wildfire frequency is transforming the ecosystem toward a higher degree of homogeneity, one dominated by invasive annual grasses and declining landscape productivity. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are a species of conservation concern that rely on large tracts of structurally and functionally diverse sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities. Using a 12-year (2008-2019) telemetry dataset, we documented immediate impacts of wildfire on demographic rates of a population of sage-grouse that were exposed to two large wildfire events (Virginia Mountains Fire Complex-2016; Long Valley Fire-2017) near the border of California and Nevada. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in demographic rates were accounted for using a Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) study design. Results revealed a 40% reduction in adult survival and a 79% reduction in nest survival within areas impacted by wildfires. Our results indicate that wildfire has strong and immediate impacts to two key life stages of a sagebrush indicator species and underscores the importance of fire suppression and immediate restoration following wildfire events.

Assessing Global Efforts in the Selection of Vertebrates as Umbrella Species for Conservation

The umbrella-species strategy has been proposed as an attainable tool to achieve multi-species and community conservation with limited investment. There have been many umbrella-related studies since the concept's inception; thus, a summary of global study efforts and recommended umbrella species is important for understanding advances in the field and facilitating conservation applications. Here, we collated 213 recommended umbrella species of terrestrial vertebrates from 242 scientific articles published during 1984-2021 and analyzed their geographic patterns, biological features, and conservation statuses to identify global trends in the selection of umbrella species. We found a considerable geographic bias: most studies and, consequently, recommended umbrella species are from the Northern Hemisphere. There is also a strong taxonomic bias, with grouses (order Galliformes) and large carnivores being the most popular umbrella species and amphibians and reptiles being largely overlooked. In addition, wide-ranging and non-threatened species were frequently recommended as umbrella species. Given the observed biases and trends, we caution that appropriate species need to be chosen for each location, and it is important to confirm that popular, wide-ranging species are effective umbrella species. Moreover, amphibians and reptiles should be investigated for their potential as umbrella species. The umbrella-species strategy has many strengths and, if applied appropriately, may be one of the best options in today's conservation research and funding landscape.

Defining biologically relevant and hierarchically nested population units to inform wildlife management

Wildlife populations are increasingly affected by natural and anthropogenic changes that negatively alter biotic and abiotic processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales and therefore require increased wildlife management and conservation efforts. However, wildlife management boundaries frequently lack biological context and mechanisms to assess demographic data across the multiple spatiotemporal scales influencing populations. To address these limitations, we developed a novel approach to define biologically relevant subpopulations of hierarchically nested population levels that could facilitate managing and conserving wildlife populations and habitats. Our approach relied on the Spatial "K"luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal clustering algorithm, which we applied in an agglomerative manner (bottom-to-top). We modified the clustering algorithm using a workflow and population structure tiers from least-cost paths, which captured biological inferences of habitat conditions (functional connectivity), dispersal capabilities (potential connectivity), genetic information, and functional processes affecting movements. The approach uniquely included context of habitat resources (biotic and abiotic) summarized at multiple spatial scales surrounding locations with breeding site fidelity and constraint-based rules (number of sites grouped and population structure tiers). We applied our approach to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern, across their range within the western United States. This case study produced 13 hierarchically nested population levels (akin to cluster levels, each representing a collection of subpopulations of an increasing number of breeding sites). These closely approximated population closure at finer ecological scales (smaller subpopulation extents with fewer breeding sites; cluster levels ≥2), where >92% of individual sage-grouse's time occurred within their home cluster. With available population monitoring data, our approaches can support the investigation of factors affecting population dynamics at multiple scales and assist managers with making informed, targeted, and cost-effective decisions within an adaptive management framework. Importantly, our approach provides the flexibility of including species-relevant context, thereby supporting other wildlife characterized by site fidelity.

Estimating survival and adoption rates of dependent juveniles

Population growth and fitness are typically most sensitive to adult survival in long‐lived species, but variation in recruitment often explains most of the variation in fitness, as past selection has canalized adult survival. Estimating juvenile survival until age of independence has proven challenging, because marking individuals in this age class may directly affect survival. For Greater Sage‐grouse, uniquely marking juveniles in the first days of life likely results in adverse effects to survival, detection of juveniles is not perfect, and females adopt juveniles from other parents. These challenges are encountered by researchers studying avian and mammalian species with similar life histories, yet methods do not exist that explicitly estimate all these components of the recruitment process. We propose a novel data collection method and demographic model to simultaneously estimate rates of detection, survival, and adoption of juvenile individuals. Using multiple cameras to film the beginning of juvenile activity on specific days, we obtained counts of juveniles associated with marked females. Increases of juveniles to broods provided information that enabled us to estimate rates of adoption that can be applied at the population level. Losses from broods informed apparent survival. These losses could be attributed to death, or they could be chicks that were adopted by other females. We found evidence that apparent survival of juveniles was influenced by localized weather patterns when chicks were young. Similarly, we found that young chicks were more susceptible to the adverse effect of attending females being flushed by an observer. Both of these patterns diminished quickly as chicks aged. We provide the first‐ever estimates of interval‐specific adoption rates. Our results suggest that researchers should be cautious when designing studies to estimate juvenile survival. More importantly, they provide insight into adoption, a behavior that has been known to exist for decades.

Acute and lagged fitness consequences for a sagebrush obligate in a post mega-wildfire landscape

Species responses to disturbance influence their extinction risks. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are bioindicators of sagebrush ecosystem health and the loss of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) due to wildfire, can cause long-term declines in sage-grouse populations and other sagebrush obligate species. We examined the demographic response of a greater sage-grouse population following a mega-wildfire using stochastic age-structured female-based matrix models over 6 years (2013-2018). Notably, chick survival (range = 0.18-0.38) and female survival (yearling range: 0.20-0.68; adult range: 0.27-0.75) were low compared to values reported for greater sage-grouse in other parts of their distribution. Greater sage-grouse displayed variation in demographic tactics after the fire; however, adult female survival explained most of the variation in λ during each year, which reflected a declining population in 3 of 6 years with more uncertainty observed in 2015 when populations may have been increasing, and 2017 and 2018, when populations may have been declining. The continued annual population decline observed since 2016 suggested there were additional strong environmental impacts that may have been compounded by the fire effects, prolonging recovery of greater sage-grouse. Our results support others that reported negative effects to greater sage-grouse demographics from broad-scale fire and provide a baseline for understanding how this species responds to loss of sagebrush cover based on their life history strategy.

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.

Conservation of Micromeria browiczii (Lamiaceae), Endemic to Zakynthos Island (Ionian Islands, Greece)

The massive decline in biodiversity due to anthropogenic threats has led to the emergence of conservation as one of the central goals in modern biology. Conservation strategies are urgently needed for addressing the ongoing loss of plant diversity. The Mediterranean basin, and especially the Mediterranean islands, host numerous rare and threatened plants in need of urgent conservation actions. In this study, we assess the current conservation status of Micromeria browiczii, a local endemic to Zakynthos Island (Ionian Islands, Greece), and estimate its future risk of extinction by compiling and assessing scientific information on geographical distribution, population dynamics and reproductive biology. The population size and the geographical distribution of the species were monitored for five years. The current population of the species consists of 15 subpopulations. Considerable annual fluctuation of population size was detected. The species is assessed as Endangered according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature threat categories. According to population viability analysis results, its extinction risk was estimated to be 5.6% over the next 50 years, when six of the fifteen subpopulations (40%) might become extinct. The investigation of certain aspects of the species’ biology yielded important data necessary to identify critical aspects for its survival and to propose conservation measures.

Using satellite-derived estimates of plant phenological rhythms to predict sage-grouse nesting chronology

The "green wave" hypothesis posits that during spring consumers track spatial gradients in emergent vegetation and associated foraging opportunities. This idea has largely been invoked to explain animal migration patterns, yet the general phenomenon underlies trends in vertebrate reproductive chronology as well. We evaluated the utility of this hypothesis for predicting spatial variation in nest initiation of greater sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in western North America. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map the green wave across elevation and then compiled dates and locations of >450 sage-grouse nests from 20 study sites (2000-2014) to model nest initiation as a function of the start of the growing season (SOS), defined here as the maximum daily rate of increase in NDVI. Individual sites were drawn from three ecoregions, distributed over 4.5° latitude, and spanning 2,300 m in elevation, which captured the climatic, edaphic, and floristic diversity of sagebrush ecosystems in the southern half of current sage-grouse range. As predicted, SOS displayed a significant, positive relationship with elevation, occurring 1.3 days later for each 100 m increase in elevation. In turn, sage-grouse nest initiation followed SOS by 22 ± 10 days (r2  = .57), with hatch dates falling on or just prior to the peak of the growing season. By timing nesting to the green wave, sage-grouse chicks hatched when the abundance of protein-rich invertebrate biomass is hypothesized to be nearing a seasonal high. This adaptation likely represents a strategy for maximizing reproductive success in the arid, variable environments that define sagebrush ecosystems. Given projected changes in climate and land use, these results can be used to predict periods of relative sensitivity to habitat disturbance for sage-grouse. Moreover, the near real-time availability of satellite imagery offers a heretofore underutilized means of mapping the green wave, planning habitat restoration, and monitoring range conditions.

Reproductive state leads to intraspecific habitat partitioning and survival differences in greater sage-grouse: implications for conservation

Context Inter- and intraspecific habitat partitioning is widespread across taxa, yet limited information is available on differences in intraspecific habitat selection by same-sex individuals among differing reproductive states. Understanding habitat selection by conspecifics of different reproductive states may help optimise conservation efforts, particularly for gallinaceous bird species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), which are long-lived but have only moderate reproductive rates. Aims We predicted that habitat use differed between grouse under different reproductive states and that reproductive investment decreased survival of adults in summer. Methods We compared habitat characteristics used by brood-rearing and broodless female sage-grouse and evaluated the influence of reproductive investment and habitat use on survival of adult females. Key results We found that brood-rearing and broodless female sage-grouse partitioned habitat at micro- and macrohabitat scales. Broodless females were more likely to survive the summer. Conclusions Our findings suggest reproductive state variability in habitat selection by female sage-grouse. Broodless females were roosting and foraging in concealed habitats with intermediate visual obstruction and annual vegetation productivity, but less food forb availability compared with early and late brood-rearing females. In contrast, brood-rearing females likely selected more herbaceous understoreys to predictably maximise foraging opportunities and promote growth of their chicks, which appeared to mitigate the influence of reproductive costs on summer survival, particularly during the late brood-rearing period. Implications Survival of adult females is critical for population persistence of sage-grouse and other long-lived Galliformes, yet conservation efforts generally focus on habitats used during nesting and brood-rearing. Our results suggest that habitat partitioning is a potential risk-aversion strategy where individuals across different reproductive states likely select habitats to maximise their survival. Conservation efforts should focus on conserving habitats used by both brood-rearing and broodless sage-grouse to ensure population persistence.

Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) obligate wildlife species such as the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) face numerous threats including altered ecosystem processes that have led to conifer expansion into shrub-steppe. Conifer removal is accelerating despite a lack of empirical evidence on grouse population response. Using a before-after-control-impact design at the landscape scale, we evaluated effects of conifer removal on two important demographic parameters, annual survival of females and nest survival, by monitoring 219 female sage-grouse and 225 nests in the northern Great Basin from 2010 to 2014. Estimates from the best treatment models showed positive trends in the treatment area relative to the control area resulting in an increase of 6.6% annual female survival and 18.8% nest survival relative to the control area by 2014. Using stochastic simulations of our estimates and published demographics, we estimated a 25% increase in the population growth rate in the treatment area relative to the control area. This is the first study to link sage-grouse demographics with conifer removal and supports recommendations to actively manage conifer expansion for sage-grouse conservation. Sage-grouse have become a primary catalyst for conservation funding to address conifer expansion in the West, and these findings have important implications for other ecosystem services being generated on the wings of species conservation.

Does Wyoming's Core Area Policy Protect Winter Habitats for Greater Sage-Grouse?

Conservation reserves established to protect important habitat for wildlife species are used world-wide as a wildlife conservation measure. Effective reserves must adequately protect year-round habitats to maintain wildlife populations. Wyoming's Sage-Grouse Core Area policy was established to protect breeding habitats for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Protecting only one important seasonal habitat could result in loss or degradation of other important habitats and potential declines in local populations. The purpose of our study was to identify the timing of winter habitat use, the extent which individuals breeding in Core Areas used winter habitats, and develop resource selection functions to assess effectiveness of Core Areas in conserving sage-grouse winter habitats in portions of 5 Core Areas in central and north-central Wyoming during winters 2011-2015. We found that use of winter habitats occured over a longer period than current Core Area winter timing stipulations and a substantial amount of winter habitat outside of Core Areas was used by individuals that bred in Core Areas, particularly in smaller Core Areas. Resource selection functions for each study area indicated that sage-grouse were selecting habitats in response to landscapes dominated by big sagebrush and flatter topography similar to other research on sage-grouse winter habitat selection. The substantial portion of sage-grouse locations and predicted probability of selection during winter outside small Core Areas illustrate that winter requirements for sage-grouse are not adequately met by existing Core Areas. Consequently, further considerations for identifying and managing important winter sage-grouse habitats under Wyoming's Core Area Policy are warranted.