Green and Hawksbill Sea turtles of Eastern Atlantic: New insights into a globally important rookery in the Gulf of Guinea

Sea turtles are critical components of marine ecosystems, and their conservation is important for Ocean Governance and Global Planet Health. However, there is limited knowledge of their ecology in the Gulf of Guinea. To fill this knowledge gap, this study presents the first integrative assessment of green and hawksbill turtles in the region, combining nesting surveys over 9 years and telemetry data, to offer insights into these population dynamics, and behaviours, including nesting preferences, morphological and reproductive parameters, diving patterns and inter-nesting core-use areas. Both green and hawksbill turtles are likely making a recovery on São Tomé, potentially driven by sustained conservation efforts. There are preliminary indications of recovery, but we interpret this cautiously. Coupled with satellite tracking, this study estimated that 482 to 736 green turtles and 135 to 217 hawksbills nest on the beaches of São Tomé. Their movements overlap significantly with a proposed Marine Protected Area (MPA), which suggests they may be well placed for conservation if managed appropriately. However, the presence of artisanal fisheries and emerging threats, such as sand mining and unregulated tourism, highlight the urgent need for robust management strategies that align global conservation objectives with local socioeconomic realities. This study significantly enhances our understanding of the ecology and conservation needs of the green and hawksbill turtles in the Gulf of Guinea. The insights gleaned here can contribute to the development of tailored conservation strategies that benefit these populations and the ecosystem services upon which they depend.

Lesser prairie-chicken dispersal after translocation: Implications for restoration and population connectivity

Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal-related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation-induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie-chickens and measured how lesser prairie-chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie-chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016-2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie-chickens throughout their post-release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie-chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post-translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie-chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this "stepping stone" method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie-chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site-specific, population augmentation for this species.

Prey availability and foraging activity by tundra-nesting sea ducks: Strong preference for specific wetland types

Wetlands in Arctic tundra support abundant breeding waterbirds. Wetland types differing in area, depth, vegetation, and invertebrate biomass density may vary in importance to birds, and in vulnerability to climate change. We studied availability and use of different wetland types by prelaying females of four species of sea ducks (Mergini) breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, USA: long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and Steller's (Polysticta stelleri), spectacled (Somateria fischeri), and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis). All four species preferred shallow vegetated wetlands versus deeper lakes. The ducks spent almost all their active time feeding, but their occurrence in different wetland types was not affected by the relative biomass density of known prey or of all invertebrates that we sampled combined. Sea ducks strongly preferred wetlands dominated by emergent and submersed Arctophila fulva over those dominated by the sedge Carex aquatilis, despite the much greater number, total area, and invertebrate biomass density of Carex wetlands. The hens depend heavily on local invertebrate prey for protein to produce eggs; thus, their preference for Arctophila wetlands likely reflects greater accessibility of prey in the near-surface canopy and detritus of Arctophila. Such shallow wetlands decreased substantially in number (-17%) and area (-30%) over 62 years before 2013 and appear highly susceptible to further declines with climate warming. Impacts on sea ducks of climate-driven changes in availability of important wetland types will depend on their adaptability in exploiting alternative wetlands.

Non-exploitative human disturbance provides shelter for prey from predator

Human activities can influence behaviors of predators and prey, as well as predator-prey interactions. Using camera trap data, we investigated whether or to what extent human activities influenced behaviors of predators (tigers and leopards) and prey (sambar deer, spotted deer, wild boar, and barking deer), and predator-prey interactions in the Barandabhar Corridor Forest (BCF), Chitwan District, Nepal. A multispecies occupancy model revealed that the presence of humans altered the conditional occupancy of both prey and predator species. Specifically, the conditional occupancy probability of prey was substantially higher (ψ = 0.91, CI = 0.89-0.92) when humans were present than when humans were absent (ψ = 0.68, CI = 0.54-0.79). The diel activity pattern of most prey species overlapped strongly with humans, whereas predators were generally more active when humans were absent. Finally, the spatiotemporal overlap analysis revealed that human-prey interactions (i.e., the probability that both humans and prey species being present on the same grid at the same hourly period) was ~3 times higher (10.5%, CI = 10.4%-10.6%) compared to spatiotemporal overlap between humans and predators (3.1%, CI = 3.0%-3.2%). Our findings are consistent with the human shield hypothesis and suggest that ungulate prey species may reduce predation risk by using areas with high human activities.

Assessing spatial distribution, genetic variants, and virulence of pathogen Mycoplasma agassizii in threatened Mojave desert tortoises

Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), a threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act, are long-lived reptiles that experience a chronic respiratory disease. The virulence of primary etiologic agent, Mycoplasma agassizii, remains poorly understood, but it exhibits temporal and geographic variability in causing disease outbreaks in host tortoises. Multiple attempts to culture and characterize the diversity of M. agassizii have had minimal success, even though this opportunistic pathogen chronically persists in nearly every population of Mojave desert tortoises. The current geographic range and the molecular mechanisms of virulence of the type-strain, PS6^T, are unknown, and the bacterium is thought to have low-to-moderate virulence. We designed a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) targeting three putative virulence genes annotated on the PS6^T genome as exo-α-sialidases, enzymes which facilitate growth in many bacterial pathogens. We tested 140 M. agassizii-positive DNA samples collected from 2010 to 2012 across the range of Mojave desert tortoises. We found evidence of multiple-strain infections within hosts. We also found the prevalence of these sialidase-encoding genes to be highest in tortoise populations surrounding southern Nevada, the area from which PS6^T was originally isolated. We found a general pattern of loss or reduced presence of sialidase among strains, even within a single host. However, in samples that were positive for any of the putative sialidase genes, one particular gene (528), was positively associated with bacterial loads of M. agassizii and may act as a growth factor for the bacterium. Our results suggest three evolutionary patterns: (1) high levels of variation, possibly due to neutral changes and chronic persistence, (2) a trade-off between moderate virulence and transmission, and (3) selection against virulence in environmental conditions known to be physiologically stressful to the host. Our approach of quantifying genetic variation via qPCR represents a useful model of studying host-pathogen dynamics.

Growth, drought response, and climate-associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warming climate. Beyond these chronic stressors, there is also concern about how this species will respond to acute stressors, such as drought. We present patterns of stem growth from 766 large (average diameter at breast height >25 cm), disease-free whitebark pine across the Sierra Nevada before and during a recent period of drought. We contextualize growth patterns using population genomic diversity and structure from a subset of 327 trees. Sampled whitebark pine generally had positive to neutral stem growth trends from 1970 to 2011, which was positively correlated with minimum temperature and precipitation. Indices of stem growth during drought years (2012 to 2015) relative to a predrought interval were mostly positive to neutral at our sampled sites. Individual tree growth response phenotypes appeared to be linked to genotypic variation in climate-associated loci, suggesting that some genotypes can take better advantage of local climatic conditions than others. We speculate that reduced snowpack during the 2012 to 2015 drought years may have lengthened the growing season while retaining sufficient moisture to maintain growth at most study sites. Growth responses may differ under future warming, however, particularly if drought severity increases and modifies interactions with pests and pathogens.

Detecting ecological traps in human-altered landscapes: A case study of the thick-billed longspur nesting in croplands

Conversion of the North American prairies to cropland remains a prominent threat to grassland bird populations. Yet, a few species nest in these vastly modified systems. Thick-billed longspurs historically nested in recently disturbed or sparsely vegetated patches within native mixed-grass prairie, but observations of longspurs in spring cereal and pulse crop fields during the breeding season in northeastern Montana, USA, suggest such fields also provide cues for habitat selection. Maladaptive selection for poor-quality habitat may contribute to ongoing declines in longspur populations, but information on thick-billed longspur breeding ecology in crop fields is lacking. We hypothesized that crop fields may function as ecological traps; specifically, we expected that crop fields may provide cues for territory selection, but frequent human disturbance would result in reduced reproduction. To address this hypothesis, we compared measures of habitat selection (settlement patterns and trends in abundance) and productivity (nest density, nest survival, and number of young fledged) between crop fields and native grassland sites during 2020-2021. Across both years, settlement patterns were similar between site types and occupancy ranged from 0.52 ± 0.17 SE to 0.99 ± 0.01 on April 7 and 30, respectively. Early season abundance differed by year, and changes in abundance during the breeding season appeared to be associated with precipitation-driven vegetation conditions rather than habitat type. While an index of nest density was lower in crop than native sites, the number of young fledged per successful nest (2.9 ± 0.18 SE) and nest survival (0.24 ± 0.03 SE; n = 222 nests) were similar for crop and native sites. Collectively, the data did not support our ecological trap hypothesis: longspurs did not exhibit a clear preference for crop sites and reproductive output was not significantly reduced. Our results indicate that croplands may provide alternative breeding habitat within a human-dominated landscape.

Diet of a threatened rattlesnake (eastern massasauga) revealed by DNA metabarcoding

Characterizing the diet of imperiled species using minimally invasive methods is crucial to understanding their ecology and conservation requirements. Here, we apply a DNA metabarcoding approach to study the diet of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus), a Federally Threatened snake found throughout the Great Lakes region. Eighty-three fecal samples collected across 10 different massasauga populations located in Michigan, USA, were sequenced, with 70 samples containing prey DNA. We used universal metazoan primers and developed a host-specific oligonucleotide blocker to characterize their diet. We identified at least 12 different prey species, with eastern massasaugas exhibiting opportunistic feeding and a strong preference towards small mammals. Meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) were the most common prey item (70% of diet) followed by the northern short-tailed shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and masked shrew (Sorex cinereus; 15.7% of diet each), along with occasional bird and snake prey. Adult individuals exhibited a more generalized diet, consuming a larger number of prey taxa on average. Younger snakes consumed a smaller variety of prey items and tended to consume smaller-sized mammals such as masked shrews (Sorex cinereus) and northern short-tailed shrews (Blarina brevicauda). We conclude that small mammals are a crucial part of eastern massasauga rattlesnake diet and recommend this be taken into consideration when conservation strategies are developed. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other reptile species, providing an accurate, minimally invasive, and thorough diet assessment for at-risk reptile species.

Considering the influence of land use/land cover on estuarine biotic richness with Bayesian hierarchical models

The composition of land use/land cover (LULC) in coastal watersheds has many implications for estuarine system ecological function. Land use/land cover can influence allochthonous inputs and can enhance or degrade the physical characteristics of estuaries, which in turn affects estuaries' ability to support local biota. However, these implications for estuaries are often poorly considered when assessing the value of lands for conservation. The focus of research regarding terrestrial and estuarine interfaces often evaluates how LULC may stress estuarine ecosystems, but in this study we sought to understand how LULC may both positively and negatively affect estuaries using measures of observed biotic richness as proxies for estuarine function. We investigated the influence of LULC on estuarine biotic richness with Bayesian hierarchical models using multiple geospatial data sets from 33 estuaries and their associated watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region of the United States. We designed the hierarchical models with observed species richness of three functional groups (FGs) (i.e., pelagic fishes, forage fishes, and shrimp) from fishery-independent trawl surveys as response variables. We then set salinity and water temperature as trawl-specific covariates and measures of influence from six LULC classes as estuary-specific covariates and allowed the models to vary by estuary, trawl program, salinity, and temperature. The model results indicated that the observed richness of each FG was both positively and negatively associated with different LULC classes, with estuarine wetlands and forested lands demonstrating the strongest positive influences on each FG. The results are generally consistent with past studies, and the modeling framework provides a promising way to systematically quantify LULC linkages with the biotic health of estuaries for the purposes of potentially valuing the estuarine implications of land conservation.

Citizen science reveals waterfowl responses to extreme winter weather

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs) which may be especially detrimental during late-winter when many species are surviving on scarce resources. However, monitoring animal populations relative to ECEs is logistically challenging. Crowd-sourced datasets may provide opportunity to monitor species' responses to short-term chance phenomena such as ECEs. We used 14 years of eBird-a global citizen science initiative-to examine distribution changes for seven wintering waterfowl species across North America in response to recent extreme winter polar vortex disruptions. To validate inferences from eBird, we compared eBird distribution changes against locational data from 362 GPS-tagged Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Mississippi Flyway. Distributional shifts between eBird and GPS-tagged Mallards were similar following an ECE in February 2021. In general, the ECE affected continental waterfowl population distributions; however, responses were variable across species and flyways. Waterfowl distributions tended to stay near wintering latitudes or moved north at lesser distances compared with non-ECE years, suggesting preparedness for spring migration was a stronger "pull" than extreme weather was a "push" pressure. Surprisingly, larger-bodied waterfowl with grubbing foraging strategies (i.e., geese) delayed their northward range shift during ECE years, whereas smaller-bodied ducks were less affected. Lastly, wetland obligate species shifted southward during ECE years. Collectively, these results suggest specialized foraging strategies likely related to resource limitations, but not body size, necessitate movement from extreme late-winter weather in waterfowl. Our results demonstrate eBird's potential to monitor population-level effects of weather events, especially severe ECEs. eBird and other crowd-sourced datasets can be valuable to identify species which are adaptable or vulnerable to ECEs and thus, begin to inform conservation policy and management to combat negative effects of global climate change.

Novel hair snare and genetic methods for non-invasive bobcat detection

Over the past 20 years, the use of non-invasive hair snare surveys in wildlife research and management has become more prevalent. While these tools have been used to answer important research questions, these techniques often fail to gather information on elusive carnivores, such as bobcats (Lynx rufus). Due to the limited success of previous bobcat studies using hair snares which required active rubbing, this technique has largely fallen out of use, in favor of camera trapping. The goal of our study was to construct a novel, passive bobcat hair snare that could be deployed regardless of terrain or vegetation features, which would be effective for use in capture-recapture population estimation at a large spatial scale. This new hair snare was deployed in 1500 10-km2 cells across West Virginia (USA) between two sampling seasons (2015-2016). Collected hair samples were analyzed with newly developed mitochondrial DNA primers specifically for felids and qPCR to determine species of origin, with enough sensitivity to identify samples as small as two bobcat hairs. Over the two years of the study, a total of 378 bobcat detections were recorded from 42,000 trap nights of sampling, for an overall rate of 0.9 detections/100 trap nights-nearly 2-6 times greater than any previous bobcat hair snare study. While the overall number of recaptured animals was low (n = 9), continued development of this platform should increase its usefulness in capture-recapture studies.

Acute and lagged fitness consequences for a sagebrush obligate in a post mega-wildfire landscape

Species responses to disturbance influence their extinction risks. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are bioindicators of sagebrush ecosystem health and the loss of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) due to wildfire, can cause long-term declines in sage-grouse populations and other sagebrush obligate species. We examined the demographic response of a greater sage-grouse population following a mega-wildfire using stochastic age-structured female-based matrix models over 6 years (2013-2018). Notably, chick survival (range = 0.18-0.38) and female survival (yearling range: 0.20-0.68; adult range: 0.27-0.75) were low compared to values reported for greater sage-grouse in other parts of their distribution. Greater sage-grouse displayed variation in demographic tactics after the fire; however, adult female survival explained most of the variation in λ during each year, which reflected a declining population in 3 of 6 years with more uncertainty observed in 2015 when populations may have been increasing, and 2017 and 2018, when populations may have been declining. The continued annual population decline observed since 2016 suggested there were additional strong environmental impacts that may have been compounded by the fire effects, prolonging recovery of greater sage-grouse. Our results support others that reported negative effects to greater sage-grouse demographics from broad-scale fire and provide a baseline for understanding how this species responds to loss of sagebrush cover based on their life history strategy.

Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7-3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management

Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire- and climate-tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short-term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi-scale, multi-proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs.

Life in the desert: The impact of geographic and environmental gradients on genetic diversity and population structure of Ivesia webberi

For range-restricted species with disjunct populations, it is critical to characterize population genetic structure, gene flow, and factors that influence functional connectivity among populations in order to design effective conservation programs. In this study, we genotyped 314 individuals from 16 extant populations of Ivesia webberi, a United States federally threatened Great Basin Desert using six microsatellite loci. We assessed the effects of Euclidean distance, landscape features, and ecological dissimilarity on the pairwise genetic distance of the sampled populations, while also testing for a potential relationship between I. webberi genetic diversity and diversity in the vegetative communities. The results show low levels of genetic diversity overall (H e = 0.200-0.441; H o = 0.192-0.605) and high genetic differentiation among populations. Genetic diversity was structured along a geographic gradient, congruent with patterns of isolation by distance. Populations near the species' range core have relatively high genetic diversity, supporting in part a central-marginal pattern, while also showing some evidence for a metapopulation dynamic. Peripheral populations have lower genetic diversity, significantly higher genetic distances, and higher relatedness. Genotype cluster admixture results suggest a complex dispersal pattern among populations with dispersal direction and distance varying on the landscape. Pairwise genetic distance strongly correlates with elevation, actual evapotranspiration, and summer seasonal precipitation, indicating a role for isolation by environment, which the observed phenological mismatches among the populations also support. The significant correlation between pairwise genetic distance and floristic dissimilarity in the germinated soil seed bank suggests that annual regeneration in the plant communities contribute to the maintenance of genetic diversity in I. webberi.

Survival of western Gulf Coast Mottled Ducks (Anas fulvigula) in the path of a Category 4 hurricane

Tropical cyclones are the most powerful storms on earth, causing catastrophic damage to human lives and infrastructure. Hurricanes also cause wildlife mortality when they make landfall, but the severity of these effects is difficult to quantify because data collection is either logistically impossible or deprioritized in the wake of human tragedy. On August 27, 2020, Hurricane Laura made landfall in southwestern Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 241 kph (150 mph), making it one of the most powerful storms to strike the mainland United States. Hurricane Laura passed directly over the core breeding range of the western Gulf Coast population of Mottled Duck (Anas fulvigula), during a time when many adult birds were undergoing a simultaneous wing feather molt and were flightless. We used GPS-GSM telemetry data to evaluate survival rates of adult female Mottled Ducks in late summer 2020 (bracketing August 27 by one month on either side) relative to the same period in 2018 and 2019. Mortality was lower in 2018 (12 out of 29; 41%) and 2019 (8 out of 28; 29%) than in 2020 (12 out of 18; 67%), and 7 out of 12 mortalities documented in 2020 occurred when Hurricane Laura made landfall. Survival analyses in program MARK confirmed lower survival probability in 2020, but there was overlap in 85% confidence intervals in all years. This single storm resulted in the death of ~40% of all marked birds in our sample, suggesting that hurricanes have the potential to influence population demographics. In addition, Hurricane Laura resulted in widespread habitat loss and degradation that has reduced available nesting habitat in 2021, and possibly for years to come. The acute and chronic effects of hurricanes may exacerbate Mottled Duck population declines, which may worsen in the face of increasingly frequent and more severe tropical storms.

Genetic and morphological characterization of the freshwater mussel clubshell species complex (Pleurobema clava and Pleurobema oviforme) to inform conservation planning

The shell morphologies of the freshwater mussel species Pleurobema clava (federally endangered) and Pleurobema oviforme (species of concern) are similar, causing considerable taxonomic confusion between the two species over the last 100 years. While P. clava was historically widespread throughout the Ohio River basin and tributaries to the lower Laurentian Great Lakes, P. oviforme was confined to the Tennessee and the upper Cumberland River basins. We used two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes, 13 novel nuclear DNA microsatellite markers, and shell morphometrics to help resolve this taxonomic confusion. Evidence for a single species was apparent in phylogenetic analyses of each mtDNA gene, revealing monophyletic relationships with minimal differentiation and shared haplotypes. Analyses of microsatellites showed significant genetic structuring, with four main genetic clusters detected, respectively, in the upper Ohio River basin, the lower Ohio River and Great Lakes, and upper Tennessee River basin, and a fourth genetic cluster, which included geographically intermediate populations in the Ohio and Tennessee river basins. While principal components analysis (PCA) of morphometric variables (i.e., length, height, width, and weight) showed significant differences in shell shape, only 3% of the variance in shell shape was explained by nominal species. Using Linear Discriminant and Random Forest (RF) analyses, correct classification rates for the two species' shell forms were 65.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Random Forest classification rates for some populations were higher; for example, for North Fork Holston (HOLS), it was >90%. While nuclear DNA and shell morphology indicate that the HOLS population is strongly differentiated, perhaps indicative of cryptic biodiversity, we consider the presence of a single widespread species the most likely biological scenario for many of the investigated populations based on our mtDNA dataset. However, additional sampling of P. oviforme populations at nuclear loci is needed to corroborate this finding.

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.-Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Phylogeographic analysis delimits three evolutionary significant units of least chipmunks in North America and identifies unique genetic diversity within the imperiled Peñasco population

Although least chipmunks (Neotamias minimus) are a widely distributed North American species of least concern, the southernmost population, N. m. atristriatus (Peñasco least chipmunk), is imperiled and a candidate for federal listing as a subspecies. We conducted a phylogeographic analysis across the N. minimus range to assess genomic differentiation and distinctiveness of the N. m. atristriatus population. Additionally, we leveraged the historical component of sampling to conduct a temporal analysis of N. minimus genetic diversity and also considered climate change effects on range persistence probability by projecting a species distribution model into the IPCC5 RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. We identified three geographically structured groups (West, North, and South) that were supported by both mitochondrial and nuclear data. N. m. atristriatus grouped within a unique South subclade but were not reciprocally monophyletic from N. m. operarius, and nuclear genome analyses did not separate N. m. atristriatus, N. m. caryi, and N. m. operarius. Thus, while least chipmunks in the Southwest represent an evolutionary significant unit, subspecies distinctions were not supported and listing of the Peñasco population as a Distinct Population Segment of N. m. operarius may be warranted. Our results also support consideration of populations with North and West mitogenomes as two additional evolutionary significant units. We found that N. minimus genetic diversity declined by ~87% over the last century, and our models predicted substantial future habitat contraction, including the loss of the full contemporary ranges of N. m. atristriatus, N. m. arizonensis, and N. m. chuskaensis.

What is winter? Modeling spatial variation in bat host traits and hibernation and their implications for overwintering energetics

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has decimated hibernating bat populations across eastern and central North America for over a decade. Disease severity is driven by the interaction between bat characteristics, the cold-loving fungal agent, and the hibernation environment. While we further improve hibernation energetics models, we have yet to examine how spatial heterogeneity in host traits is linked to survival in this disease system. Here, we develop predictive spatial models of body mass for the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and reassess previous definitions of the duration of hibernation of this species. Using data from published literature, public databases, local experts, and our own fieldwork, we fit a series of generalized linear models with hypothesized abiotic drivers to create distribution-wide predictions of prehibernation body fat and hibernation duration. Our results provide improved estimations of hibernation duration and identify a scaling relationship between body mass and body fat; this relationship allows for the first continuous estimates of prehibernation body mass and fat across the species' distribution. We used these results to inform a hibernation energetic model to create spatially varying fat use estimates for M. lucifugus. These results predict WNS mortality of M. lucifugus populations in western North America may be comparable to the substantial die-off observed in eastern and central populations.

Establishing conservation units to promote recovery of two threatened freshwater mussel species (Bivalvia: Unionida: Potamilus)

Population genomics has significantly increased our ability to make inferences about microevolutionary processes and demographic histories, which have the potential to improve protection and recovery of imperiled species. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) represent one of the most imperiled groups of organisms globally. Despite systemic decline of mussel abundance and diversity, studies evaluating spatiotemporal changes in distribution, demographic histories, and ecological factors that threaten long-term persistence of imperiled species remain lacking. In this study, we use genotype-by-sequencing (GBS) and mitochondrial sequence data (mtDNA) to define conservation units (CUs) for two highly imperiled freshwater mussel species, Potamilus amphichaenus and Potamilus streckersoni. We then synthesize our molecular findings with details from field collections spanning from 1901 to 2019 to further elucidate distributional trends, contemporary status, and other factors that may be contributing to population declines for our focal species. We collected GBS and mtDNA data for individuals of P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni from freshwater mussel collections in the Brazos, Neches, Sabine, and Trinity drainages ranging from 2012 to 2019. Molecular analyses resolved disputing number of genetic clusters within P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni; however, we find defensible support for four CUs, each corresponding to an independent river basin. Evaluations of historical and recent occurrence data illuminated a generally increasing trend of occurrence in each of the four CUs, which were correlated with recent increases in sampling effort. Taken together, these findings suggest that P. amphichaenus and P. streckersoni are likely rare throughout their respective ranges. Because of this, the establishment of CUs will facilitate evidence-based recovery planning and ensure potential captive propagation and translocation efforts are beneficial. Our synthesis represents a case study for conservation genomic assessments in freshwater mussels and provides a model for future studies aimed at recovery planning for these highly imperiled organisms.

Sperm length divergence as a potential prezygotic barrier in a passerine hybrid zone

The saltmarsh sparrow Ammospiza caudacuta and Nelson's sparrow A. nelsoni differ in ecological niche, mating behavior, and plumage, but they hybridize where their breeding distributions overlap. In this advanced hybrid zone, past interbreeding and current backcrossing result in substantial genomic introgression in both directions, although few hybrids are currently produced in most locations. However, because both species are nonterritorial and have only brief male-female interactions, it is difficult to determine to what extent assortative mating explains the low frequency of hybrid offspring. Since females often copulate with multiple males, a role of sperm as a postcopulatory prezygotic barrier appears plausible. Here, we show that sperm length differs between the two species in the hybrid zone, with low among-male variation consistent with strong postcopulatory sexual selection on sperm cells. We hypothesize that divergence in sperm length may constitute a reproductive barrier between species, as sperm length co-evolves with the size of specialized female sperm storage tubules. Sperm does not appear to act as a postzygotic barrier, as sperm from hybrids was unexceptional.