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Regan CE, Sheldon BC. Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:2968-2980. [PMID: 36867108 PMCID: PMC10947444 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte E. Regan
- Department of BiologyEdward Grey Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Ben C. Sheldon
- Department of BiologyEdward Grey Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUK
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2
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Masto NM, Robinson OJ, Brasher MG, Keever AC, Blake‐Bradshaw AG, Highway CJ, Feddersen JC, Hagy HM, Osborne DC, Combs DL, Cohen BS. Citizen science reveals waterfowl responses to extreme winter weather. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:5469-5479. [PMID: 35656733 PMCID: PMC9545755 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs) which may be especially detrimental during late-winter when many species are surviving on scarce resources. However, monitoring animal populations relative to ECEs is logistically challenging. Crowd-sourced datasets may provide opportunity to monitor species' responses to short-term chance phenomena such as ECEs. We used 14 years of eBird-a global citizen science initiative-to examine distribution changes for seven wintering waterfowl species across North America in response to recent extreme winter polar vortex disruptions. To validate inferences from eBird, we compared eBird distribution changes against locational data from 362 GPS-tagged Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Mississippi Flyway. Distributional shifts between eBird and GPS-tagged Mallards were similar following an ECE in February 2021. In general, the ECE affected continental waterfowl population distributions; however, responses were variable across species and flyways. Waterfowl distributions tended to stay near wintering latitudes or moved north at lesser distances compared with non-ECE years, suggesting preparedness for spring migration was a stronger "pull" than extreme weather was a "push" pressure. Surprisingly, larger-bodied waterfowl with grubbing foraging strategies (i.e., geese) delayed their northward range shift during ECE years, whereas smaller-bodied ducks were less affected. Lastly, wetland obligate species shifted southward during ECE years. Collectively, these results suggest specialized foraging strategies likely related to resource limitations, but not body size, necessitate movement from extreme late-winter weather in waterfowl. Our results demonstrate eBird's potential to monitor population-level effects of weather events, especially severe ECEs. eBird and other crowd-sourced datasets can be valuable to identify species which are adaptable or vulnerable to ECEs and thus, begin to inform conservation policy and management to combat negative effects of global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas M. Masto
- College of Arts and SciencesTennessee Technological UniversityCookevilleTennesseeUSA
| | | | | | - Allison C. Keever
- College of Arts and SciencesTennessee Technological UniversityCookevilleTennesseeUSA
| | | | - Cory J. Highway
- College of Arts and SciencesTennessee Technological UniversityCookevilleTennesseeUSA
| | - Jamie C. Feddersen
- Division of Wildlife and ForestryTennessee Wildlife Resources AgencyNashvilleTennesseeUSA
| | - Heath M. Hagy
- National Wildlife Refuge SystemU.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceStantonTennesseeUSA
| | - Douglas C. Osborne
- College of Forestry, Agriculture, and Natural ResourcesUniversity of Arkansas at MonticelloMonticelloArkansasUSA
| | - Daniel L. Combs
- College of Arts and SciencesTennessee Technological UniversityCookevilleTennesseeUSA
| | - Bradley S. Cohen
- College of Arts and SciencesTennessee Technological UniversityCookevilleTennesseeUSA
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Fragueira R, Helfenstein F, Fischer K, Beaulieu M. Birds of different morphs use slightly different strategies to achieve similar reproductive performance following heatwave exposure. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:2594-2608. [PMID: 34191276 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Responses to extreme climatic events may differ between individuals of distinct morphs which differ in life-history strategies, resulting in climate change 'winners' and 'losers' within species. We examined the reproductive performance and carry-over effects on offspring of black- and red-headed Gouldian finches Erythrura gouldiae after exposure to simulated heatwaves of moderate or severe intensity. We expected black-headed pairs' reproductive performance to decline after the severe heatwave because only the condition of black-headed females deteriorates during such a heatwave. Supporting the fact that Gouldian finches of different morphs use alternative reproductive strategies, we found that black-headed females initiated egg-laying a month earlier than red-headed females after experiencing a severe heatwave. We also found that this severe heatwave resulted in shorter spermatozoa in males irrespective of their morph. Despite these effects associated with heatwave intensity, the overall reproductive performance of both morphs was not affected by this factor, which was possibly due to an increased nestling provisioning rate by parents after exposure to the severe heatwave. However, offspring still bore the cost of parental exposure to the severe heatwave, as they showed a reduced condition (lower plasma antioxidant capacity and transient lower breathing rate) and higher oxidative damage (at least in fledglings with black-headed parents). These results suggest that inter-morph phenotypic variability in the Gouldian finch does not result in clear differences in reproductive performance following heatwave exposure, despite basal phenotypic differences between morphs. Whether animals using alternative reproductive strategies are, in the end, differently affected by climate changes will likely depend on the capacity of their offspring to recover from altered developmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rita Fragueira
- Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | | | - Klaus Fischer
- Institute for Integrated Natural Sciences, University of Koblenz-Landau, Koblenz, Germany
| | - Michaël Beaulieu
- Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.,German Oceanographic Museum, Stralsund, Germany
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Acker P, Burthe SJ, Newell MA, Grist H, Gunn C, Harris MP, Payo-Payo A, Swann R, Wanless S, Daunt F, Reid JM. Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20210404. [PMID: 34004132 PMCID: PMC8131125 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Acker
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Institutt for Biologi, NTNU, Norway
| | - Sarah J. Burthe
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
| | - Mark A. Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
| | - Hannah Grist
- SAMS Research Services Ltd, European Marine Science Park, Oban, UK
| | - Carrie Gunn
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
| | | | - Ana Payo-Payo
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK
| | | | - Sarah Wanless
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
| | - Francis Daunt
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
| | - Jane M. Reid
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Institutt for Biologi, NTNU, Norway
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Margalef-Marrase J, Pérez-Navarro MÁ, Lloret F. Relationship between heatwave-induced forest die-off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:3134-3146. [PMID: 32064733 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 01/20/2020] [Accepted: 02/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, many forest die-off events have been reported in relation to climate-change-induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die-off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die-off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die-off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979-2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS-SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS-SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die-off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die-off. Furthermore, we observed different species-specific relationships between die-off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro-Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs-derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS-SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Francisco Lloret
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Unitat d'Ecologia, Univ. Autònoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
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Volaire F, Morvan-Bertrand A, Prud’homme MP, Benot ML, Augusti A, Zwicke M, Roy J, Landais D, Picon-Cochard C. The resilience of perennial grasses under two climate scenarios is correlated with carbohydrate metabolism in meristems. J Exp Bot 2020; 71:370-385. [PMID: 31557303 PMCID: PMC6913708 DOI: 10.1093/jxb/erz424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2019] [Accepted: 09/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves affect ecosystem functioning and species turnover. This study investigated the effect of elevated CO2 on species' resilience to ECEs. Monoliths of intact soil and their plant communities from an upland grassland were exposed to 2050 climate scenarios with or without an ECE under ambient (390 ppm) or elevated (520 ppm) CO2. Ecophysiological traits of two perennial grasses (Dactylis glomerata and Holcus lanatus) were measured before, during, and after ECE. At similar soil water content, leaf elongation was greater under elevated CO2 for both species. The resilience of D. glomerata increased under enhanced CO2 (+60%) whereas H. lanatus mostly died during ECE. D. glomerata accumulated 30% more fructans, which were more highly polymerized, and 4-fold less sucrose than H. lanatus. The fructan concentration in leaf meristems was significantly increased under elevated CO2. Their relative abundance changed during the ECE, resulting in a more polymerized assemblage in H. lanatus and a more depolymerized assemblage in D. glomerata. The ratio of low degree of polymerization fructans to sucrose in leaf meristems was the best predictor of resilience across species. This study underlines the role of carbohydrate metabolism and the species-dependent effect of elevated CO2 on the resilience of grasses to ECE.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Marie-Lise Benot
- UCA, INRA, VetAgro Sup, UMR 874, Clermont-Ferrand, France
- INRA and Université de Bordeaux, UMR 1202 BIOGECO33610, Cestas, France
| | - Angela Augusti
- UCA, INRA, VetAgro Sup, UMR 874, Clermont-Ferrand, France
- CNR-Institute of Research on Terrestrial Ecosystems, Porano (TR), Italy
| | - Marine Zwicke
- UCA, INRA, VetAgro Sup, UMR 874, Clermont-Ferrand, France
| | - Jacques Roy
- CNRS, UPS 3248, Ecotron Européen de Montpellier, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France
| | - Damien Landais
- CNRS, UPS 3248, Ecotron Européen de Montpellier, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France
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7
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Bailey LD, Ens BJ, Both C, Heg D, Oosterbeek K, van de Pol M. No phenotypic plasticity in nest-site selection in response to extreme flooding events. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 372:rstb.2016.0139. [PMID: 28483869 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/12/2017] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Phenotypic plasticity is a crucial mechanism for responding to changes in climatic means, yet we know little about its role in responding to extreme climatic events (ECEs). ECEs may lack the reliable cues necessary for phenotypic plasticity to evolve; however, this has not been empirically tested. We investigated whether behavioural plasticity in nest-site selection allows a long-lived shorebird (Haematopus ostralegus) to respond to flooding. We collected longitudinal nest elevation data on individuals over two decades, during which time flooding events have become increasingly frequent. We found no evidence that individuals learn from flooding experiences, showing nest elevation change consistent with random nest-site selection. There was also no evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to potential environmental cues (lunar nodal cycle and water height). A small number of individuals, those nesting near an artificial sea wall, did show an increase in nest elevation over time; however, there is no conclusive evidence this occurred in response to ECEs. Our study population showed no behavioural plasticity in response to changing ECE patterns. More research is needed to determine whether this pattern is consistent across species and types of ECEs. If so, ECEs may pose a major challenge to the resilience of wild populations.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liam D Bailey
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Bruno J Ens
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, PO Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Christiaan Both
- Conservation Ecology Group, University of Groningen, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Dik Heg
- Clinical Trials Unit, Department of Clinical Research, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Kees Oosterbeek
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, PO Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.,Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Ma G, Rudolf VHW, Ma CS. Extreme temperature events alter demographic rates, relative fitness, and community structure. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:1794-1808. [PMID: 24909842 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2014] [Revised: 04/23/2014] [Accepted: 05/27/2014] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are predicted to increase under future climate change. Despite recent advancements, we still lack a detailed understanding of how changes in the frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events are linked to the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities. To answer this question, we used a combination of laboratory experiments, field experiments, and analysis of multi-year field observations to reveal the effects of extreme high temperature events on the demographic rates and relative dominance of three co-occurrence aphid species which differ in their transmission efficiency of different agricultural pathogens. We then linked the geographical shift in their relative dominance to frequent extreme high temperatures through a meta-analysis. We found that both frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures altered demographic rates of species. However, these effects were species-specific. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of extreme temperature events altered which species had the highest fitness. Importantly, this change in relative fitness of species was consistent with significant changes in the relative dominance of species in natural communities in a 1 year long field heating experiment and 6 year long field survey of natural populations. Finally, at a global spatial scale, we found the same relationship between relative abundance of species and frequency of extreme temperatures. Together, our results indicate that changes in frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures can alter the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities, and that these changes are driven by asymmetric effects of high temperatures on the demographic rates and fitness of species. They also highlight the importance of understanding how extreme events affect the life-history of species for predicting the impacts of climate change at the individual and community level, and emphasize the importance of using a broad range of approaches when studying climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gang Ma
- Climate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, No 2, Yuanmingyuan West Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100193, China
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