Shortening fire return interval predisposes west-central Canadian boreal peatlands to more rapid vegetation growth and transition to forest cover

Climate change in northern latitudes is increasing the vulnerability of peatlands and the riparian transition zones between peatlands and upland forests (referred to as ecotones) to greater frequency of wildland fires. We examined early post-fire vegetation regeneration following the 2011 Utikuma complex fire (central Alberta, Canada). This study examined 779 peatlands and adjacent ecotones, covering an area of ~182 km2 . Based on the known regional fire history, peatlands that burned in 2011 were stratified into either long return interval (LRI) fire regimes of >80 years (i.e., no recorded prior fire history) or short fire return interval (SRI) of 55 years (i.e., within the boundary of a documented severe fire in 1956). Data from six multitemporal airborne lidar surveys were used to quantify trajectories of vegetation change for 8 years prior to and 8 years following the 2011 fire. To date, no studies have quantified the impacts of post-fire regeneration following short versus long return interval fires across this broad range of peatlands with variable environmental and post-fire successional trajectories. We found that SRI peatlands demonstrated more rapid vascular and shrub growth rates, especially in peatland centers, than LRI peatlands. Bogs and fens burned in 1956, and with little vascular vegetation (classified as "open peatlands") prior to the 2011 fire, experienced the greatest changes. These peatlands tended to transition to vascular/shrub forms following the SRI fire, while open LRI peatlands were not significantly different from pre-fire conditions. The results of this study suggest the emergence of a positive feedback, where areas experiencing SRI fires in southern boreal peatlands are expected to transition to forested vegetation forms. Along fen edges and within bog centers, SRI fires are expected to reduce local peatland groundwater moisture-holding capacity and promote favorable conditions for increased fire frequency and severity in the future.

Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury

A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergone limited evaluation of how injury level and time since fire interact to influence model accuracy and predictor variable importance. Less severe injuries potentially serve as an indicator for vulnerability to additional stressors such as bark beetle attack or moisture stress. We used a collection of 164,293 individual tree records to examine post-fire tree mortality in eight western USA conifers: Abies concolor, Abies grandis, Calocedrus decurrens, Larix occidentalis, Pinus contorta, Pinus lambertiana, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii. We evaluated the importance of fire injury predictors on discriminating between surviving trees versus immediate and delayed post-fire mortality. We fit balanced random forest models for each species using cumulative tree mortality from 1 to 5-years post-fire. We compared these results to multi-class random forest models using first-year mortality, 2-5-year mortality, and survival 5-years post-fire as a response variable. Crown volume scorched, diameter at breast height, and relative bark char height, were used as predictor variables. The cumulative mortality models all predicted trees that died within 1-year of fire with high accuracy but failed to predict 2-5-year mortality. The multi-class models were an improvement but had lower accuracy for predicting 2-5-year mortality. Multi-class model accuracies ranged from 85% to 95% across all species for predicting 1-year post-fire mortality, 42%-71% for predicting 2-5-year mortality, and 64%-85% for predicting trees that lived past 5-years. Our study highlights the differences in tree species tolerance to fire injury and suggests that including second-order predictors such as beetle attack or climatic water stress before and after fire will be critical to improve accuracy and better understand the mechanisms and patterns of fire-caused tree death. Random forest models have potential for management applications such as post-fire harvesting and simulating future stand dynamics.

Responses to Wildfire and Prescribed Fire Smoke: A Survey of a Medically Vulnerable Adult Population in the Wildland-Urban Interface, Mariposa County, California

California plans to substantially increase the use of prescribed fire to reduce risk of catastrophic wildfires. Although for a beneficial purpose, prescribed fire smoke may still pose a health concern, especially among sensitive populations. We sought to understand community health experience, adaptive capacity, and attitudes regarding wildland and prescribed fire smoke to inform public health guidance. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of medically vulnerable persons in a rural, high fire risk county (N = 106, 76% > 65 years) regarding wildfire and prescribed smoke health effects; health protective actions; information needs; and support for fire management policies. Qualitative comments were reviewed for context and emerging themes. More than half (58%) of participants reported health impacts from wildfire smoke; 26% experienced impacts from prescribed fire smoke. Participants expressed strong support for prescribed fire, although also concerns about safety and smoke. Respondents reported taking actions to reduce smoke exposure (average 5 actions taken per person), but many (47%) lacked confidence that they could successfully protect their health. Persons who were satisfied with the information received tended to be more confident in their ability to protect their health compared to those who were not satisfied (61% vs. 35%). More information was desired on many topics, including notifications about prescribed fire, health protection and exposure reduction. As California expands use of prescribed fire, the need for effective health protective communication regarding smoke is increasingly vital. We recommend seeking solutions that strengthen community resilience and address equity for vulnerable populations.

Short- and long-term wildfire threat when adapting infrastructure for wildlife conservation in the boreal forest

Managers designing infrastructure in fire-prone wildland areas require assessments of wildfire threat to quantify uncertainty due to future vegetation and climatic conditions. In this study, we combine wildfire simulation and forest landscape composition modeling to identify areas that would be highly susceptible to wildfire around a proposed conservation corridor in Québec, Canada. In this measure, managers have proposed raising the conductors of a new 735-kV hydroelectric powerline above the forest canopy within a wildlife connectivity corridor to mitigate the impacts to threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Retention of coniferous vegetation, however, can increase the likelihood of an intense wildfire damaging powerline infrastructure. To assess the likelihood of high-intensity wildfires for the next 100 years, we evaluated three time periods (2020, 2070, 2120), three climate scenarios (observed, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and four vegetation projections (static, no harvest, extensive harvesting, harvesting excluded in protected areas). Under present-day conditions, we found a lower probability of high-intensity wildfire within the corridor than in other parts of the study area, due to the protective influence of a nearby, poorly regenerated burned area. Wildfire probability will increase into the future, with strong, weather-induced inflation in the number of annual ignitions and wildfire spread potential. However, a conversion to less-flammable vegetation triggered by interactions between climate change and disturbance may attenuate this trend. By addressing the range of uncertainty of future conditions, we present a robust strategy to assist in decision-making about long-term risk management for both the proposed conservation measure and the powerline.

Soil Heating in Fire (SheFire): A model and measurement method for estimating soil heating and effects during wildland fires

Fire has transformative effects on soil biological, chemical, and physical properties in terrestrial ecosystems around the world. While methods for estimating fire characteristics and associated effects aboveground have progressed in recent decades, there remain major challenges in characterizing soil heating and associated effects belowground. Overcoming these challenges is crucial for understanding how fire influences soil carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem recovery. In this paper, we present a novel framework for characterizing belowground heating and effects. The framework includes (1) an open-source model to estimate fire-driven soil heating, cooling, and the biotic effects of heating across depths and over time (Soil Heating in Fire model; SheFire) and (2) a simple field method for recording soil temperatures at multiple depths using self-contained temperature sensor and data loggers (i.e., iButtons), installed along a wooden stake inserted into the soil (i.e., an iStake). The iStake overcomes many logistical challenges associated with obtaining temperature profiles using thermocouples. Heating measurements provide inputs to the SheFire model, and modeled soil heating can then be used to derive ecosystem response functions, such as heating effects on microorganisms and tissues. To validate SheFire estimates, we conducted a burn table experiment using iStakes to record temperatures that were in turn used to fit the SheFire model. We then compared SheFire predicted temperatures against measured temperatures at other soil depths. To benchmark iStake measurements against those recorded by thermocouples, we co-located both types of sensors in the burn table experiment. We found that SheFire demonstrated skill in interpolating and extrapolating soil temperatures, with the largest errors occurring at the shallowest depths. We also found that iButton sensors are comparable to thermocouples for recording soil temperatures during fires. Finally, we present a case study using iStakes and SheFire to estimate in situ soil heating during a prescribed fire and demonstrate how observed heating regimes would influence seed and tree root vascular cambium survival at different soil depths. This measurement-modeling framework provides a cutting-edge approach for describing soil temperature regimes (i.e., soil heating) through a soil profile and predicting biological responses.

The wildland-urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous United States based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint data set from Microsoft. We classified WUI across the conterminous United States at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6%-18.8% of the conterminous United States as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint data sets and classification methods.

Evaluation of Cairpol and Aeroqual Air Sensors in Biomass Burning Plumes

Cairpol and Aeroqual air quality sensors measuring CO, CO₂, NO₂, and other species were tested in fresh biomass burning plumes in field and laboratory environments. We evaluated sensors by comparing 1-minute sensor measurements to collocated reference instrument measurements. Sensors were evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (r ²) between the sensor and reference measurements, by the accuracy, collocated precision, root mean square error (RMSE), and other metrics. In general, CO and CO₂ sensors performed well (in terms of accuracy and r ² values) compared to NO₂ sensors. Cairpol CO and NO₂ sensors had better sensor-versus-sensor agreement (e.g., collocated precision) than Aeroqual CO and NO₂ sensors of the same species. Tests of other sensors (e.g., NH₃, H₂S, VOC, NMHC) provided more inconsistent results and need further study. Aeroqual NO₂ sensors had an apparent O₃ interference that was not observed in the Cairpol NO₂ sensors. Although the sensor accuracy lags that of reference-level monitors, with location-specific calibrations they have the potential to provide useful data about community air quality and personal exposure to smoke impacts.

Potential impacts of Washington State's wildfire worker protection rule on construction workers

Driven by climate change, wildfires are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity across the Western United States. Outdoor workers are being exposed to increasing wildfire-related particulate matter and smoke. Recognizing this emerging risk, Washington adopted an emergency rule and is presently engaged in creating a permanent rule to protect outdoor workers from wildfire smoke exposure. While there are growing bodies of literature on the exposure to and health effects of wildfire smoke in the general public and wildland firefighters, there is a gap in knowledge about wildfire smoke exposure among outdoor workers generally and construction workers specifically-a large category of outdoor workers in Washington totaling 200,000 people. Several data sources were linked in this study-including state-collected employment data and national ambient air quality data-to gain insight into the risk of PM2.5 exposure among construction workers and evaluate the impacts of different air quality thresholds that would have triggered a new Washington emergency wildfire smoke rule aimed at protecting workers from high PM2.5 exposure. Results indicate the number of poor air quality days has increased in August and September in recent years. Over the last decade, these months with the greatest potential for particulate matter exposure coincided with an annual peak in construction employment that was typically 9.4-42.7% larger across Washington counties (one county was 75.8%). Lastly, the 'encouraged' threshold of the Washington emergency rule (20.5 μg m-3) would have resulted in 5.5 times more days subject to the wildfire rule on average across all Washington counties compared to its 'required' threshold (55.5 μg m-3), and in 2020, the rule could have created demand for 1.35 million N-95 filtering facepiece respirators among construction workers. These results have important implications for both employers and policy makers as rules are developed. The potential policy implications of wildfire smoke exposure, exposure control strategies, and data gaps that would improve understanding of construction worker exposure to wildfire smoke are also discussed.

Health and Economic Burden of the 2017 Portuguese Extreme Wildland Fires on Children

Wildland fires release substantial amounts of hazardous contaminants, contributing to a decline in air quality and leading to serious health risks. Thus, this study aimed to understand the contributions of the 2017 extreme wildland fires in Portugal on children health, compared to 2016 (with burned area, in accordance with the average of the previous 15 years). The impact of long-term exposure to PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations, associated with wildland fires, on postneonatal mortality, bronchitis prevalence, and bronchitis symptoms in asthmatic children was estimated, as well as the associated costs. The excess health burden in children attributable to exposure to PM₁₀ and NO₂, was calculated based on WHO HRAPIE relative risks. Fire emissions were obtained from the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN). The results obtained indicate that the smoke from wildfires negatively impacts children’s lung function (PM₁₀ exposure: increase of 320 and 648 cases of bronchitis in 2016 and 2017; NO₂ exposure: 24 and 40 cases of bronchitis symptoms in asthmatic children in 2016 and 2017) and postneonatal mortality (PM₁₀ exposure: 0.2 and 0.4 deaths in 2016 and 2017). Associated costs were increased in 2017 by around 1 million € for all the evaluated health endpoints, compared to 2016.

Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

An Ecological Perspective on Living with Fire in Ponderosa Pine Forests of Oregon and Washington: Resistance, Gone but not Forgotten

Wildland fires (WLF) have become more frequent, larger, and severe with greater impacts to society and ecosystems and dramatic increases in firefighting costs. Forests throughout the range of ponderosa pine in Oregon and Washington are jeopardized by the interaction of anomalously dense forest structure, a warming and drying climate, and an expanding human population. These forests evolved with frequent interacting disturbances including low-severity surface fires, droughts, and biological disturbance agents (BDAs). Chronic low-severity disturbances were, and still are, critical to maintaining disturbance resistance, the property of an ecosystem to withstand disturbance while maintaining its structure and ecological function. Restoration of that historical resistance offers multiple social and ecological benefits. Moving forward, we need a shared understanding of the ecology of ponderosa pine forests to appreciate how restoring resistance can reduce the impacts of disturbances. Given contemporary forest conditions, a warming climate, and growing human populations, we predict continued elevation of tree mortality from drought, BDAs, and the large high-severity WLFs that threaten lives and property as well as ecosystem functions and services. We recommend more comprehensive planning to promote greater use of prescribed fire and management of reported fires for ecological benefits, plus increased responsibility and preparedness of local agencies, communities and individual homeowners for WLF and smoke events. Ultimately, by more effectively preparing for fire in the wildland urban interface, and by increasing the resistance of ponderosa pine forests, we can greatly enhance our ability to live with fire and other disturbances.

An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report

Wildland fires are diminishing air quality on a seasonal and regional basis, raising concerns about respiratory health risks to the public and occupational groups. This American Thoracic Society (ATS) workshop was convened in 2019 to meet the growing health threat of wildland fire smoke. The workshop brought together a multidisciplinary group of 19 experts, including wildland fire managers, public health officials, epidemiologists, toxicologists, and pediatric and adult pulmonologists. The workshop examined the following four major topics: 1) the science of wildland fire incidence and fire management, 2) the respiratory and cardiovascular health effects of wildland fire smoke exposure, 3) communication strategies to address these health risks, and 4) actions to address wildland fire health impacts. Through formal presentations followed by group discussion, workshop participants identified top priorities for fire management, research, communication, and public policy to address health risks of wildland fires. The workshop concluded that short-term exposure to wildland smoke causes acute respiratory health effects, especially among those with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Research is needed to understand long-term health effects of repeated smoke exposures across fire seasons for children, adults, and highly exposed occupational groups (especially firefighters). Other research priorities include fire data collection and modeling, toxicology of different fire fuel sources, and the efficacy of health protective measures to prevent respiratory effects of smoke exposure. The workshop committee recommends a unified federal response to the growing problem of wildland fires, including investment in fire behavior and smoke air quality modeling, research on the health impacts of smoke, and development of robust clinical and public health communication tools.

The Wildland Fire Heat Budget-Using Bi-Directional Probes to Measure Sensible Heat Flux and Energy in Surface Fires

Sensible energy is the primary mode of heat dissipation from combustion in wildland surface fires. However, despite its importance to fire dynamics, smoke transport, and in determining ecological effects, it is not routinely measured. McCaffrey and Heskestad (A robust bidirectional low-velocity probe for flame and fire application. Combustion and Flame 26:125–127, 1976) describe measurements of flame velocity from a bi-directional probe which, when combined with gas temperature measurements, can be used to estimate sensible heat fluxes. In this first field application of bi-directional probes, we describe vertical and horizontal sensible heat fluxes during the RxCADRE experimental surface fires in longleaf pine savanna and open ranges at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Flame-front sensible energy is the time-integral of heat flux over a residence time, here defined by the rise in gas temperatures above ambient. Horizontal flow velocities and energies were larger than vertical velocities and energies. Sensible heat flux and energy measurements were coordinated with overhead radiometer measurements from which we estimated fire energy (total energy generated by combustion) under the assumption that 17% of fire energy is radiated. In approximation, horizontal, vertical, and resultant sensible energies averaged 75%, 54%, and 64%, respectively, of fire energy. While promising, measurement challenges remain, including obtaining accurate gas and velocity measurements and capturing three-dimensional flow in the field.

Development of the User Requirements for the Canadian WildFireSat Satellite Mission

In 2019 the Canadian Space Agency initiated development of a dedicated wildfire monitoring satellite (WildFireSat) mission. The intent of this mission is to support operational wildfire management, smoke and air quality forecasting, and wildfire carbon emissions reporting. In order to deliver the mission objectives, it was necessary to identify the technical and operational challenges which have prevented broad exploitation of Earth Observation (EO) in Canadian wildfire management and to address these challenges in the mission design. In this study we emphasize the first objective by documenting the results of wildfire management end-user engagement activities which were used to identify the key Fire Management Functionalities (FMFs) required for an Earth Observation wildfire monitoring system. These FMFs are then used to define the User Requirements for the Canadian Wildland Fire Monitoring System (CWFMS) which are refined here for the WildFireSat mission. The User Requirements are divided into Observational, Measurement, and Precision requirements and form the foundation for the design of the WildFireSat mission (currently in Phase-A, summer 2020).

Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests and Wildfire-Related Particulate Matter During 2015-2017 California Wildfires

Background

The natural cycle of large‐scale wildfires is accelerating, increasingly exposing both rural and populous urban areas to wildfire emissions. While respiratory health effects associated with wildfire smoke are well established, cardiovascular effects have been less clear.

Methods and Results

We examined the association between out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest and wildfire smoke density (light, medium, heavy smoke) from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association's Hazard Mapping System. Out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest data were provided by the Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival for 14 California counties, 2015–2017 (N=5336). We applied conditional logistic regression in a case‐crossover design using control days from 1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks before case date, at lag days 0 to 3. We stratified by pathogenesis, sex, age (19–34, 35–64, and ≥65 years), and socioeconomic status (census tract percent below poverty). Out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest risk increased in association with heavy smoke across multiple lag days, strongest on lag day 2 (odds ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.18–2.13). Risk in the lower socioeconomic status strata was elevated on medium and heavy days, although not statistically significant. Higher socioeconomic status strata had elevated odds ratios with heavy smoke but null results with light and medium smoke. Both sexes and age groups 35 years and older were impacted on days with heavy smoke.

Conclusions

Out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrests increased with wildfire smoke exposure, and lower socioeconomic status appeared to increase the risk. The future trajectory of wildfire, along with increasing vulnerability of the aging population, underscores the importance of formulating public health and clinical strategies to protect those most vulnerable.

Development of a WebGIS-Based Analysis Tool for Human Health Protection from the Impacts of Prescribed Fire Smoke in Southeastern USA

We have developed the Southern Integrated Prescribed Fire Information System (SIPFIS) to disseminate prescribed fire information, including daily forecasts of potential air quality impacts for southeastern USA. SIPFIS is a Web-based Geographic Information Systems (WebGIS) assisted online analysis tool that provides easy access to air quality and fire-related data products, and it facilitates visual analysis of exposure to smoke from prescribed fires. We have demonstrated that the information that SIPFIS provides can help users to accomplish several fire management activities, especially those related to assessing environmental and health impacts associated with prescribed burning. SIPFIS can easily and conveniently assist tasks such as checking residential community-level smoke exposures for personal use, pre-screening for fire-related exceptional events that could lead to air quality exceedances, supporting analysis for air quality forecasts, and the evaluation of prescribed burning operations, among others. The SIPFIS database is currently expanding to include social vulnerability and human health information, and this will evolve to bring more enhanced interactive functions in the future.

Mapping Modeled Exposure of Wildland Fire Smoke for Human Health Studies in California

Wildland fire smoke exposure affects a broad proportion of the U.S. population and is increasing due to climate change, settlement patterns and fire seclusion. Significant public health questions surrounding its effects remain, including the impact on cardiovascular disease and maternal health. Using atmospheric chemical transport modeling, we examined general air quality with and without wildland fire smoke PM2.5. The 24-h average concentration of PM2.5 from all sources in 12-km gridded output from all sources in California (2007-2013) was 4.91 μg/m3. The average concentration of fire-PM2.5 in California by year was 1.22 μg/m3 (~25% of total PM2.5). The fire-PM2.5 daily mean was estimated at 4.40 μg/m3 in a high fire year (2008). Based on the model-derived fire-PM2.5 data, 97.4% of California's population lived in a county that experienced at least one episode of high smoke exposure ("smokewave") from 2007-2013. Photochemical model predictions of wildfire impacts on daily average PM2.5 carbon (organic and elemental) compared to rural monitors in California compared well for most years but tended to over-estimate wildfire impacts for 2008 (2.0 μg/m3 bias) and 2013 (1.6 μg/m3 bias) while underestimating for 2009 (-2.1 μg/m3 bias). The modeling system isolated wildfire and PM2.5 from other sources at monitored and unmonitored locations, which is important for understanding population exposure in health studies. Further work is needed to refine model predictions of wildland fire impacts on air quality in order to increase confidence in the model for future assessments. Atmospheric modeling can be a useful tool to assess broad geographic scale exposure for epidemiologic studies and to examine scenario-based health impacts.

The Dangerous Middle: Situational Awareness and Worker Perception of Beetle Kill

Forest workers, including loggers, foresters, and wildland firefighters, are regularly exposed to some of the most fatal occupational environments in the United States. These hazardous work environments may become even more complex and dynamic when subject to bark beetle outbreaks that have resulted in significant tree mortality. The impacts of tree death from bark beetles are significant, with the cumulative 17-year (2000-2016) footprint for bark beetle caused tree mortality estimated at 54 million acres. However, how workers think about and act in these environments is understudied. This study, therefore, approaches the issue of beetle kill and forest worker safety by examining the perspectives or workers themselves. Its contribution is to leverage ethnographic research to provide insights that can generate new research questions, better inform outreach, and ultimately improve worker safety outcomes. The resulting insights show that beetle kill was understood by workers as a hazard that increased the complexity and dynamism of the work environment, making situational awareness both more necessary and more difficult to maintain. While much research about situational awareness focuses on hazardous situations, it is suggested that building adequate situational awareness should also include broader considerations of organizational communication, as well as training and experience considered over the course of entire careers.

Pulmonary exposure to peat smoke extracts in rats decreases expiratory time and increases left heart end systolic volume

Exposure to wildland fire-related particulate matter (PM) causes adverse health outcomes. However, the impacts of specific biomass sources remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate cardiopulmonary responses in rats following exposure to PM extracts collected from peat fire smoke. We hypothesized that peat smoke PM would dose-dependently alter cardiopulmonary function. Male Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 8/group) were exposed to 35 µg (Lo PM) or 350 µg (Hi PM) of peat smoke PM extracts suspended in saline, or saline alone (Vehicle) via oropharyngeal aspiration (OA). Ventilatory expiration times, measured in whole-body plethysmographs immediately after OA, were the lowest in Hi PM exposed subjects at 6 min into recovery (p = .01 vs. Lo PM, p = .08 vs. Vehicle) and resolved shortly afterwards. The next day, we evaluated cardiovascular function in the same subjects via cardiac ultrasound under isoflurane anesthesia. Compared to Vehicle, Hi PM had 45% higher end systolic volume (p = .03) and 17% higher pulmonary artery blood flow acceleration/ejection time ratios, and both endpoints expressed significant increasing linear trends by dose (p = .01 and .02, respectively). In addition, linear trend analyses across doses detected an increase for end diastolic volume and decreases for ejection fraction and fractional shortening. These data suggest that exposure to peat smoke constituents modulates regulation of ventricular ejection and filling volumes, which could be related to altered blood flow in the pulmonary circulation. Moreover, early pulmonary responses to peat smoke PM point to irritant/autonomic mechanisms as potential drivers of later cardiovascular responses.

Deconstructing the King megafire

Hypotheses that megafires, very large, high-impact fires, are caused by either climate effects such as drought or fuel accumulation due to fire exclusion with accompanying changes to forest structure have long been alleged and guided policy, but their physical basis remains untested. Here, unique airborne observations and microscale simulations using a coupled weather-wildland-fire-behavior model allowed a recent megafire, the King Fire, to be deconstructed and the relative impacts of forest structure, fuel load, weather, and drought on fire size, behavior, and duration to be separated. Simulations reproduced observed details including the arrival at an inclined canyon, a 25-km run, and later slower growth and features. Analysis revealed that fire-induced winds that equaled or exceeded ambient winds and fine-scale airflow undetected by surface weather networks were primarily responsible for the fire's rapid growth and size. Sensitivity tests varied fuel moisture and amount across wide ranges and showed that both drought and fuel accumulation effects were secondary, limited to sloped terrain where they compounded each other, and, in this case, unable to significantly impact the final extent. Compared to standard data, fuel models derived solely from remote sensing of vegetation type and forest structure improved simulated fire progression, notably in disturbed areas, and the distribution of burn severity. These results point to self-reinforcing internal dynamics rather than external forces as a means of generating this and possibly other outlier fire events. Hence, extreme fires need not arise from extreme fire environment conditions. Kinematic models used in operations do not capture fire-induced winds and dynamic feedbacks so can underestimate megafire events. The outcomes provided a nuanced view of weather, forest structure, fuel accumulation, and drought impacts on landscape-scale fire behavior-roles that can be misconstrued using correlational analyses between area burned and macroscale climate data or other exogenous factors. A practical outcome is that fuel treatments should be focused on sloped terrain, where factors multiply, for highest impact.

Fine-scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning

In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self-limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics of different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self-limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire-prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self-limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire-prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self-limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire's self-limiting capacity. Specifically, the self-limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire's self-limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect varies considerably according to spatial and temporal climatic variation, providing land and fire managers relevant information for effective planning and management of fire and highlighting that fire itself is an important factor contributing to fire-free intervals.

Fire effects on soils: the human dimension

Soils are among the most valuable non-renewable resources on the Earth. They support natural vegetation and human agro-ecosystems, represent the largest terrestrial organic carbon stock, and act as stores and filters for water. Mankind has impacted on soils from its early days in many different ways, with burning being the first human perturbation at landscape scales. Fire has long been used as a tool to fertilize soils and control plant growth, but it can also substantially change vegetation, enhance soil erosion and even cause desertification of previously productive areas. Indeed fire is now regarded by some as the seventh soil-forming factor. Here we explore the effects of fire on soils as influenced by human interference. Human-induced fires have shaped our landscape for thousands of years and they are currently the most common fires in many parts of the world. We first give an overview of fire effect on soils and then focus specifically on (i) how traditional land-use practices involving fire, such as slash-and-burn or vegetation clearing, have affected and still are affecting soils; (ii) the effects of more modern uses of fire, such as fuel reduction or ecological burns, on soils; and (iii) the ongoing and potential future effects on soils of the complex interactions between human-induced land cover changes, climate warming and fire dynamics.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9-74% and 33-55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950-1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8-44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25-113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223-620%), shrub tundra may increase (4-21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10-24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Modeling acute respiratory illness during the 2007 San Diego wildland fires using a coupled emissions-transport system and generalized additive modeling

BACKGROUND

A study of the impacts on respiratory health of the 2007 wildland fires in and around San Diego County, California is presented. This study helps to address the impact of fire emissions on human health by modeling the exposure potential of proximate populations to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from vegetation fires. Currently, there is no standard methodology to model and forecast the potential respiratory health effects of PM plumes from wildland fires, and in part this is due to a lack of methodology for rigorously relating the two. The contribution in this research specifically targets that absence by modeling explicitly the emission, transmission, and distribution of PM following a wildland fire in both space and time.

METHODS

Coupled empirical and deterministic models describing particulate matter (PM) emissions and atmospheric dispersion were linked to spatially explicit syndromic surveillance health data records collected through the San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC) system using a Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM) statistical approach. Two levels of geographic aggregation were modeled, a county-wide regional level and division of the county into six sub regions. Selected health syndromes within SDADIC from 16 emergency departments within San Diego County relevant for respiratory health were identified for inclusion in the model.

RESULTS

The model captured the variability in emergency department visits due to several factors by including nine ancillary variables in addition to wildfire PM concentration. The model coefficients and nonlinear function plots indicate that at peak fire PM concentrations the odds of a person seeking emergency care is increased by approximately 50% compared to non-fire conditions (40% for the regional case, 70% for a geographically specific case). The sub-regional analyses show that demographic variables also influence respiratory health outcomes from smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed in this study allows a quantitative assessment and prediction of respiratory health outcomes as it relates to the location and timing of wildland fire emissions relevant for application to future wildfire scenarios. An important aspect of the resulting model is its generality thus allowing its ready use for geospatial assessments of respiratory health impacts under possible future wildfire conditions in the San Diego region. The coupled statistical and process-based modeling demonstrates an end-to-end methodology for generating reasonable estimates of wildland fire PM concentrations and health effects at resolutions compatible with syndromic surveillance data.