Climate change mitigation through adaptation: the effectiveness of forest diversification by novel tree planting regimes

Adaptive forest management improves stand-level resilience of temperate forests under multiple stressors

Forests are expected to be strongly affected by modifications in climate and disturbance regimes, threatening their ability to sustain the provision of essential services. Promoting drought-tolerant species or functionally diverse stands have recently emerged as management options to cope with global change. Our study aimed at evaluating the impact of contrasting stand-level management scenarios on the resilience of temperate forests in eastern North America and central-western Europe using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. We simulated the evolution of eight stands over 100 years under a future extreme climate according to four management scenarios (business as usual - BAU; climate change adaptation - CC; functional diversity approach - FD; no management - NM) while facing multiple disturbances, resulting in a total of 160 simulations. We found that FD demonstrated the greatest resilience regarding transpiration and tree biomass, followed by CC and then BAU, while these three scenarios were equivalent concerning the net primary production. These results were however dependent on forest type: increasing functional diversity was a powerful option to increase the resilience of coniferous plantations whereas no clear differences between BAU and adaptive management scenarios were detected in broadleaved and mixed stands. The FD promoted a higher level of tree species diversity than any other scenario, and all scenarios of management were similar regarding the amount of harvested wood. The NM always showed the lowest resilience, demonstrating that forest management could be an important tool to mitigate adverse effects of global change. Our study highlighted that tree-level process-based models are a relevant tool to identify suitable management options for adapting forests to global change provided that model limitations are considered, and that alternative management options, particularly those based on functional diversity, are promising and should be promoted from now on.

Prediction of volatility and seasonality vegetation by using the GARCH and Holt-Winters models

Seasonality and volatility of vegetation in the ecosystem are associated with climatic sensitivity, which can have severe consequences for the environment as well as on the social and economic well-being of the nation. Monitoring and forecasting vegetation growth patterns in ecosystems significantly rely on remotely sensed vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A novel integration of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and the Holt-Winters (H-W) models was used to simulate the seasonality and volatility of the three different agro-climatic zones in Jharkhand, India: the central north-eastern, eastern, and south-eastern agro-climatic zones. MODIS Terra Vegetation Indices NDVI data MOD13Q1, from 2001 to 2021, was used to create NDVI time series volatility and seasonality modeled by the GARCH and the H-W models, respectively. GARCH-based Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) [1,1] and Standard GARCH (SGARCH) [1,1] models were used to check the volatility of vegetation growth in three different agro-climatic zones of Jharkhand. The SGARCH [1,1] and EGARCH [1,1] models for the western agro-climatic zone experienced the best indicator as it has maximum likelihood and minimal Schwarz-Bayesian criterion and Akaike information criterion. The seasonality results showed that the additive H-W model showed better results in the eastern agro-climatic zone with the optimized values of MAE (16.49), MAPE (0.49), NSE (0.86), RMSE (0.49), and R2 (0.82) followed by the south-eastern and central north-eastern agro-climatic zones. By utilizing the H-W and GARCH models, the finding demonstrates that vegetation orientation and monitoring seasonality can be predicted using NDVI.

Promoting forest landscape dynamic prediction with an online collaborative strategy

Modeling and predicting forest landscape dynamics are crucial for forest management and policy making, especially under the context of climate change and increased severities of disturbances. As forest landscapes change rapidly due to a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors, accurately and efficiently predicting forest dynamics requires the collaboration and synthesis of domain knowledge and experience from geographically dispersed experts. Owing to advanced web techniques, such collaboration can now be achieved to a certain extent, for example, discussion about modeling methods, consultation for model use, and surveying for stakeholders' feedback can be conducted on the web. However, a research gap remains in terms of how to facilitate online joint actions in the core task of forest landscape modeling by overcoming the challenges from decentralized and heterogeneous data, offline model computation modes, complex simulation scenarios, and exploratory modeling processes. Therefore, we propose an online collaborative strategy to enable collaborative forest landscape dynamic prediction with four core modules, namely data preparation, forest landscape model (FLM) computation, simulation scenario configuration, and process organization. These four modules are designed to support: (1) voluntary data collection and online processing, (2) online synchronous use of FLMs, (3) collaborative simulation scenario design, altering, and execution, and (4) participatory modeling process customization and coordination. We used the LANDIS-II model as a representative FLM to demonstrate the online collaborative strategy for predicting the dynamics of forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the online collaboration strategy effectively promoted forest landscape dynamic prediction in data preparation, scenario configuration, and task arrangement, thus supporting forest-related decision making.

Severe and frequent extreme weather events undermine economic adaptation gains of tree-species diversification

Forests and their provision of ecosystem services are endangered by climate change. Tree-species diversification has been identified as a key adaptation strategy to balance economic risks and returns in forest stands. Yet, whether this synergy between ecology and economics persists under large-scale extreme weather events remains unanswered. Our model accounts for both, small-scale disturbances in individual stands and extreme weather events that cause spatio-temporally correlated disturbances in a large number of neighboring stands. It economically optimizes stand-type allocations in a large forest enterprise with multiple planning units. Novel components are: spatially explicit site heterogeneity and a comparison of economic diversification strategies under local and regionally coordinated planning by simplified measures for [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]-diversity of stand types. [Formula: see text]-diversity refers to the number and evenness of stand types in local planning units, [Formula: see text]-diversity to the dissimilarity of the species composition across planning units, and [Formula: see text]-diversity to the number and evenness of stand types in the entire enterprise. Local planning led to stand-type diversification within planning units ([Formula: see text]-diversity), while regionally coordinated planning led to diversification across planning units ([Formula: see text]-diversity). We observed a trend towards homogenization of stand-type composition likely selected under economic objectives with increasing extreme weather events. No diversification strategy fully buffered the adverse economic consequences. This led to fatalistic decisions, i.e., selecting stand types with low investment risks but also low resistance to disturbances. The resulting forest structures indicate potential adverse consequences for other ecosystem services. We conclude that high tree-species diversity may not necessarily buffer economic consequences of extreme weather events. Forest policies reducing forest owners' investment risks are needed to establish stable forests that provide multiple ecosystem services.

Tree species admixture increases ecosystem service provision in simulated spruce- and beech-dominated stands

Climate-adaptive forest management aims to sustain the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). However, it remains largely unknown how changes in adaptive silvicultural interventions affect trade-offs and synergies among ESB in the long term. We used a simulation-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate popular adaptive forest management interventions in representative Swiss low- to mid-elevation beech- and spruce-dominated forest stands. We predicted stand development across the twenty-first century using a novel empirical and temperature-sensitive single-tree forest stand simulator in a fully crossed experimental design to analyse the effects of (1) planting mixtures of Douglas-fir, oak and silver fir, (2) thinning intensity, and (3) harvesting intensity on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity under three climate scenarios. Simulation results were evaluated in terms of multiple ESB provision, trade-offs and synergies, and individual effects of the adaptive interventions. Timber production increased on average by 45% in scenarios that included tree planting. Tree planting led to pronounced synergies among all ESBs towards the end of the twenty-first century. Increasing the thinning and harvesting intensity affected ESB provision negatively. Our simulations indicated a temperature-driven increase in growth in beech- (+ 12.5%) and spruce-dominated stands (+ 3.7%), but could not account for drought effects on forest dynamics. Our study demonstrates the advantages of multi-scenario sensitivity analysis that enables quantifying effect sizes and directions of management impacts. We showed that admixing new tree species is promising to enhance future ESB provision and synergies among them. These results support strategic decision making in forestry.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10342-022-01474-4.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management

Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire- and climate-tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short-term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi-scale, multi-proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs.

Salinity effects on water potential and the normalized difference vegetation index in four species of a saline semi-arid ecosystem

This study was carried out during January 2020–December 2020 in a semi-desert ecosystem in southern Sonora, Mexico, to determine the annual and daily variations in water potential and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of Bursera fagaroides Engl., Monogr. Phan., Parkinsonia aculeata L., Sp. Pl.; Prosopis laevigata (Humb. & Bonpl. ex Willd.), and Atriplex canescens (Pursh) Nutt. Soil electrical conductivity, cation content, and physical characteristics were determined at two depths, and water potential (ψ) was measured in roots, stems, and leaves. The daily leaf ψ was measured every 15 days each month to determine the duration of stress (hours) and the stress intensity (SI). The electrical conductivity determinations classified the soil in the experimental area as strongly saline. A significant difference was noted in electrical conductivity between soil depths. The four studied species showed significant gradients of ψ in their organs. In this soil, all four species remained in a stressed condition for approximately 11 h per day. The mean SI was 27%, and B. fagaroides Engl., Monogr. Phan. showed the lowest value. The four species showed increased NDVI values during the rainy months, with P. laevigata (Humb. & Bonpl. ex Willd.) and Parkinsonia aculeata L., Sp. Pl. showing the highest values. The capacity for ψ decrease under saline conditions identified A. canescens (Pursh) Nutt., B. fagaroides Engl., Monogr. Phan. and P. aculeata L., Sp. Pl. as practical and feasible alternatives for establishment in saline soils in southern Sonora for purposes of soil recovery and reforestation.

The Influence of Tilia tomentosa Moench on Plant Species Diversity and Composition in Mesophilic Forests of Western Romania–A Potential Tree Species for Warming Forests in Central Europe?

Climate change challenges important native timber species in Central Europe. The introduction of non-native tree species originating from warmer climates is one option to make Central European forests compatible to global warming. This, however, requires an assessment of the species’ growth requirements, and of its impact on biodiversity in its native ranges. Silver lime (Tilia tomentosa), a moderately drought-tolerant, thermophilous tree species of South-eastern Europe is considered suitable for the future. Along three elevational transects in western Romania, we assessed the impact of changing climate and local site conditions on the abundance of this tree species and contrasted plant species diversity and composition of lime-dominated forests with mesophytic oak and beech forests. Local site conditions and disturbance histories shaped the distribution pattern of silver lime. When dominant, it reduced plant species diversity within stands due to its dense canopy. For shade-tolerant, mesophytic species, though, lime forests provided an additional habitat and extended their range into warmer environments. Thus, silver lime may have the potential as an admixed tree species forming a transitory meso-thermophilous habitat in the future. At the same time, silver lime may be limited under increasing drought frequency.

Commercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways

Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr-1 from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO2e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54-1.72 Pg CO2e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.

A Step-by-Step Guide to Initialize and Calibrate Landscape Models: A Case Study in the Mediterranean Mountains

The use of spatially interactive forest landscape models has increased in recent years. These models are valuable tools to assess our knowledge about the functioning and provisioning of ecosystems as well as essential allies when predicting future changes. However, developing the necessary inputs and preparing them for research studies require substantial initial investments in terms of time. Although model initialization and calibration often take the largest amount of modelers’ efforts, such processes are rarely reported thoroughly in application studies. Our study documents the process of calibrating and setting up an ecophysiologically based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) in a biogeographical region where such a model has never been applied to date (southwestern Mediterranean mountains in Europe). We describe the methodological process necessary to produce the required spatial inputs expressing initial vegetation and site conditions. We test model behaviour on single-cell simulations and calibrate species parameters using local biomass estimations and literature information. Finally, we test how different initialization data—with and without shrub communities—influence the simulation of forest dynamics by applying the calibrated model at landscape level. Combination of plot-level data with vegetation maps allowed us to generate a detailed map of initial tree and shrub communities. Single-cell simulations revealed that the model was able to reproduce realistic biomass estimates and competitive effects for different forest types included in the landscape, as well as plausible monthly growth patterns of species growing in Mediterranean mountains. Our results highlight the importance of considering shrub communities in forest landscape models, as they influence the temporal dynamics of tree species. Besides, our results show that, in the absence of natural disturbances, harvesting or climate change, landscape-level simulations projected a general increase of biomass of several species over the next decades but with distinct spatio-temporal patterns due to competitive effects and landscape heterogeneity. Providing a step-by-step workflow to initialize and calibrate a forest landscape model, our study encourages new users to use such tools in forestry and climate change applications. Thus, we advocate for documenting initialization processes in a transparent and reproducible manner in forest landscape modelling.

Dramatic increase in water use efficiency with cumulative forest disturbance at the large forested watershed scale

BACKGROUND

Forest disturbance induced changes in the coupling of forest carbon and water have important implications for ecosystem functioning and sustainable forest management. However, this is rarely investigated at the large watershed scale with cumulative forest disturbance. We used a combination of techniques including modeling, statistical analysis, and machine learning to investigate the effects of cumulative forest disturbance on water use efficiency (WUE, a proxy for carbon and water coupling) in the 19,200 km² Chilcotin watershed situated in the central interior of British Columbia, Canada. Harvesting, wildfire, and a severe Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestation have gradually cumulated over the 45-year study period, and the watershed reached a cumulative equivalent clear-cut area of 10% in 1999 and then 40% in 2016.

RESULTS

Surprisingly, with the dramatic forest disturbance increase from 2000 to 2016 which was mainly due to MPB, watershed-level carbon stocks and sequestration showed an insignificant reduction. This resilience was mainly due to landscape-level carbon dynamics that saw a balance between a variety of disturbance rates and types, an accumulation of older stand types, and fast growing young regenerated forests. Watershed-level carbon sequestration capacity was sustained, measured by Net Primary Production (NPP). A concurrent significant decrease in annual evapotranspiration (ET), led to a 19% increase in WUE (defined as the ratio of NPP to ET), which is contrary to common findings after disturbance at the forest stand-level. During this period of high disturbance, ET was the dominant driver of the WUE increase.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that disturbance-driven forest dynamics and the appropriate scale must be considered when investigating carbon and water relationship. In contrast to the stand-level trade-off relationship between carbon and water, forested watersheds may be managed to maintain timber, carbon and water resources across large landscapes.

Network analysis can guide resilience-based management in forest landscapes under global change

Forests are projected to undergo dramatic compositional and structural shifts prompted by global changes, such as climatic changes and intensifying natural disturbance regimes. Future uncertainty makes planning for forest management exceptionally difficult, demanding novel approaches to maintain or improve the ability of forest ecosystems to respond and rapidly reorganize after disturbance events. Adopting a landscape perspective in forest management is particularly important in fragmented forest landscapes where both diversity and connectivity play key roles in determining resilience to global change. In this context, network analysis and functional traits combined with ecological dynamic modeling can help evaluate changes in functional response diversity and connectivity within and among forest stands in fragmented landscapes. Here, we coupled ecological dynamic modeling with functional traits analysis and network theory to analyze forested landscapes as an interconnected network of forest patches. We simulated future forest landscape dynamics in a large landscape in southern Quebec, Canada, under a combination of climate, disturbance, and management scenarios. We depicted the landscape as a functional network, assessed changes in future resilience using indicators at multiple spatial scales, and evaluated if current management practices are suitable for maintaining resilience to simulated changes in regimes. Our results show that climate change would promote forest productivity and favor heat-adapted deciduous species. Changes in natural disturbances will likely have negative impacts on native conifers and will drive changes in forest type composition. Climate change negatively impacted all resilience indicators and triggered losses of functional response diversity and connectivity across the landscape with undesirable consequences on the capacity of these forests to adapt to global change. Also, current management strategies failed to promote resilience at different spatial levels, highlighting the need for a more active and thoughtful approach to forest management under global change. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of combining dynamic landscape-scale simulation modeling with network analyses to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change as well as human and natural disturbances on forest resilience under global change.

Conifer Regeneration After Experimental Shelterwood and Seed-Tree Treatments in Boreal Forests: Finding Silvicultural Alternatives

Forest regeneration is a key element in achieving sustainable forest management. Partial harvest methods have been used extensively in temperate broadleaf and mixedwood ecosystems to promote regeneration on poorly stocked sites and to maintain forest composition and productivity. However, their effectiveness in promoting conifer establishment has yet to be demonstrated in unmanaged boreal forests, especially those dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) where constraints for regeneration differ from those found in more meridional regions. We aimed to evaluate conifer seedling density and dimensions, 10 years after the onset of a gradient of silvicultural treatments varying in harvesting intensities, and to identify the critical factors driving the regeneration process. Study blocks of even-aged black spruce stands in the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to three variants of shelterwood harvesting: a seed-tree harvest, a clear-cut and an untreated control. Shelterwood and seed-tree harvesting were combined with spot scarification to promote regeneration. Shelterwood and seed-tree harvesting produced a density of conifer regeneration sufficient to maintain forest productivity, but they did not promote seedling growth. Black spruce was the predominant species in terms of regeneration density, with proportions 3-5× higher than that for balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.). Ten years after treatment, seed-origin black spruce seedlings were abundant in skidding trails, while layers dominated the residual strips. Balsam fir density was not influenced by treatment nor by tree position relative to skidding trails. Balsam fir and black spruce had different responses to treatment in terms of height and diameter, the former exhibiting a better growth performance and larger diameter in the residual strips. Spot scarification created micro-sites that had a significant impact on the regeneration process. Overall, our results support that shelterwood and seed-tree harvesting combined with scarification enable adequate regeneration in black spruce stands, confirming these treatments as viable silvicultural alternatives to clear-cutting when required by sustainable forest management objectives.