Plant community change in three Mongolian steppe ecosystems 1994–2013: applications to state‐and‐transition models

Grazing Effects on Mongolian Steppe Vegetation—A Systematic Review of Local Literature

The Mongolian steppes with a long history of nomadic pastoralism cover a large area of the Palaearctic steppe biome and are still relatively intact. As livestock number has increased over the last two decades, grazing has been considered as the main reason of pasture degradation. However, the impact of grazing on vegetation dynamics, and its interaction with climate, is still not clear. We reviewed 44 publications in Mongolian language, covering 109 sites in five main steppe types, i.e., desert, dry, meadow, mountain, and high mountain steppe, with a mean annual precipitation and temperature range from 120 to 370 mm and from −6 to +5°C, respectively. We calculated relative changes in vegetation cover, species richness, and aboveground biomass from heavily grazed with respect to lightly/non-grazed conditions. Multiple linear regression models were used to test the impact of environmental factors, i.e., mean annual precipitation, coefficient of variation for precipitation, mean annual temperature and elevation. Grazing had a stronger effect on the vegetation of dry, desert and high mountain steppes, whereas its effect was less pronounced in the meadow and mountain steppes with mesic climate and high productivity. Vegetation cover, species richness and aboveground biomass were reduced by heavy grazing in the dry, desert and high mountain steppes. In the meadow steppes, grazing reduced vegetation cover, but increased richness and had nearly no effect on biomass. In the mountain steppe, richness and cover were not affected, but biomass was reduced by heavy grazing. Additionally, grazing effects on biomass tended to be more pronounced at sites with higher amounts of annual precipitation, and effects on cover changed from negative to positive as elevation increased. In conclusion, grazing effects in Mongolian steppes are overall negative in desert, dry and high mountain steppes, but no or even positive effects are found in meadow and mountain steppes. Especially, heavy grazing showed a detrimental effect on all vegetation variables in desert steppes, indicating the existence of combined pressure of climate and grazing in arid habitats, making them potentially sensitive to overgrazing and climate change. Grassland conservation and management should consider characteristics of different steppe types and give importance to local environmental conditions.

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.

Socio-ecological Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review of the Mongolian Pastoral System

Coping with climate change in socio-ecological systems is one of the most urgent issues facing the world. This is particularly true in socio-ecological systems, where climate not only influences social and ecosystem dynamics, but also modulates their interaction. In this paper, we presented a conceptual framework through a literature review and a trend analysis for assessing the impact of climate change that incorporates socio-ecological interactions. In particular, we focused on the Mongolian pastoral system, which has tightly coupled socio-ecological interactions, as a model for describing the framework. Our framework suggests that the flexibility in mobility of herders is the principal factor in determining the vulnerability of the socio-ecological system to climate change. The flexibility varies along a climatic gradient and socio-ecological interactions in each region have evolved to be suited to its local climate regime. Herders in northern and central regions of Mongolia move shorter distances, and less flexible, than those in southern (Gobi) region. Climatic hazards, on the other hand have been increasing across Mongolia with a trend toward warmer and drier conditions since the 1960s. We suggest that further warming and drying would have the greatest impact on northern and central regions due to lower flexibility in mobility among herders there coupled with the much higher livestock density in the regions. The findings support that maintaining flexibility of mobile herding will likely be crucial to reducing the vulnerability of the Mongolian pastoral system to climate change.

Opportunities to integrate herders' indicators into formal rangeland monitoring: an example from Mongolia

Despite increasing calls for knowledge integration around the world, traditional knowledge is rarely used in formal, Western-science-based monitoring and resource management. To better understand indicators herders use and their relationship to researcher-measured indicators, we conducted in-depth field interviews with 26 herders in three ecological zones of Mongolia. We asked each herder to (1) assess the overall condition of three different sites located along a livestock-use gradient from their winter camp using a numeric scale, (2) describe the indicators they used in their assessment, and (3) explain what caused their pastures to remain healthy or become degraded. At each site, we collected field data on vegetation variables and compared these with herders' ratings and indicators using linear regression. We used classification and ordination to understand how herders' assessment scores related to plant community composition, and determine how well multivariate analysis of factors determining plant community composition aligned with herders' observations of factors causing rangeland change. Across all ecological zones, herders use indicators similar to those used in formal monitoring. Herders' assessment scores correlated significantly and positively with measured total foliar cover in all three ecological zones, and with additional measured variables in the steppe and desert steppe. Ordination revealed that herder assessment scores were correlated with the primary ordination axis in each zone, and the main factors driving plant community composition in each zone were the same as those identified by herders as the primary causes of rangeland change in that zone. These results show promise for developing integrated indicators and monitoring protocols and highlight the importance of developing a common language of monitoring terminology shared by herders, government monitoring agencies, and researchers. We propose a new model for integrating herder knowledge and participation into formal monitoring in Mongolia, with implications for rangelands and pastoral people globally. We suggest practical ways of involving herders in formal monitoring that have potential broad application for promoting local and indigenous people's participation in implementing international agreements such as the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, both of which call for involvement of local people and indigenous/traditional knowledges.

Ambient changes exceed treatment effects on plant species abundance in global change experiments

The responses of species to environmental changes will determine future community composition and ecosystem function. Many syntheses of global change experiments examine the magnitude of treatment effect sizes, but we lack an understanding of how plant responses to treatments compare to ongoing changes in the unmanipulated (ambient or background) system. We used a database of long-term global change studies manipulating CO₂ , nutrients, water, and temperature to answer three questions: (a) How do changes in plant species abundance in ambient plots relate to those in treated plots? (b) How does the magnitude of ambient change in species-level abundance over time relate to responsiveness to global change treatments? (c) Does the direction of species-level responses to global change treatments differ from the direction of ambient change? We estimated temporal trends in plant abundance for 791 plant species in ambient and treated plots across 16 long-term global change experiments yielding 2,116 experiment-species-treatment combinations. Surprisingly, for most species (57%) the magnitude of ambient change was greater than the magnitude of treatment effects. However, the direction of ambient change, whether a species was increasing or decreasing in abundance under ambient conditions, had no bearing on the direction of treatment effects. Although ambient communities are inherently dynamic, there is now widespread evidence that anthropogenic drivers are directionally altering plant communities in many ecosystems. Thus, global change treatment effects must be interpreted in the context of plant species trajectories that are likely driven by ongoing environmental changes.