NDVI exhibits mixed success in predicting spatiotemporal variation in caribou summer forage quality and quantity

Effects of vehicle traffic on space use and road crossings of caribou in the Arctic

Assessing the effects of industrial development on wildlife is a key objective of managers and conservation practitioners. However, wildlife responses are often only investigated with respect to the footprint of infrastructure, even though human activity can strongly mediate development impacts. In Arctic Alaska, there is substantial interest in expanding energy development, raising concerns about the potential effects on barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti). While caribou generally avoid industrial infrastructure, little is known about the role of human activity in moderating their responses, and whether managing activity levels could minimize development effects. To address this uncertainty, we examined the influence of traffic volume on caribou summer space use and road crossings in the Central Arctic Herd within the Kuparuk and Milne Point oil fields on the North Slope of Alaska. We first modeled spatiotemporal variation in hourly traffic volumes across the road system from traffic counter data using gradient-boosted regression trees. We then used generalized additive models to estimate nonlinear step selection functions and road-crossing probabilities from collared female caribou during the post-calving and insect harassment seasons, when they primarily interact with roads. Step selection analyses revealed that caribou selected areas further from roads (~1-3 km) during the post-calving and mosquito seasons and selected areas with lower traffic volumes during all seasons, with selection probabilities peaking when traffic was <5 vehicles/h. Using road-crossing models, we found that caribou were less likely to cross roads during the insect seasons as traffic increased, but that response dissipated as insect harassment became more severe. Past studies suggested that caribou exhibit behavioral responses when traffic exceeds 15 vehicles/h, but our results demonstrate behavioral responses at much lower traffic levels. Our results illustrate that vehicle activity mediates caribou responses to road infrastructure, information that can be used in future land-use planning to minimize the behavioral responses of caribou to industrial development in sensitive Arctic landscapes.

Landscape resistance index aiming at functional forest connectivity

Resistance models may quantify the ability of the landscape to impede species' movement and represent suitable habitats. Moreover, the performance of resistance models parameterized by land-use/land cover attributes evidence that the integrity of the environments subject to urban sprawl is poorly understood. In this sense, the study assumed we could identify the forest functional connectivity in a landscape considering the disparity in the landscape mosaic. In this context, we sought to develop a landscape resistance index through structural equation modeling (SEM), supported by the criteria of heat emission, biomass, and anthropogenic barriers, obtained by remote sensing, called observed variables. The landscape studied in the Green Belt Biosphere Reserve of São Paulo has significant remnants of the Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot. However, our results indicated criteria variability in the landscape modeled through the SEM, obtaining a significant adjustment of the landscape resistance index, with comparative fit index (CFI) of 1.00 and root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) of 0.00. The index reflects the resistance levels of the land use/land cover, expressed by the class interval, ranging from 0% (1.73) to 100% (493.88), with the highest values associated with the anthropized uses and forest isolation. Thus, our index based on environmental attributes reflects the structure of functional forest connectivity and offers a framework to design forest corridors across landscapes.

Survival and reproduction in Arctic caribou are associated with summer forage and insect harassment

Investigators have speculated that the climate-driven “greening of the Arctic” may benefit barren-ground caribou populations, but paradoxically many populations have declined in recent years. This pattern has raised concerns about the influence of summer habitat conditions on caribou demographic rates, and how populations may be impacted in the future. The short Arctic summer provides caribou with important forage resources but is also the time they are exposed to intense harassment by insects, factors which are both being altered by longer, warmer growing seasons. To better understand the effects of summer forage and insect activity on Arctic caribou demographic rates, we investigated the influence of estimated forage biomass, digestible energy (DE), digestible nitrogen (DN), and mosquito activity on the reproductive success and survival of adult females in the Central Arctic Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. We tested the hypotheses that greater early summer DN would increase subsequent reproduction (parturition and late June calving success) while greater biomass and DE would increase adult survival (September–May), and that elevated mosquito activity would reduce both demographic rates. Because the period when abundant forage DN is limited and overlaps with the period of mosquito harassment, we also expected years with low DN and high harassment to synergistically reduce caribou reproductive success. Examining these relationships at the individual-level, using GPS-collared females, and at the population-level, using long-term monitoring data, we generally found support for our expectations. Greater early summer DN was associated with increased subsequent calving success, while greater summer biomass was associated with increased adult survival. Mosquito activity was associated with reductions in adult female parturition, late June calving success, and survival, and in years with low DN, had compounding effects on subsequent late June calving success. Our findings indicate that summer nutrition and mosquito activity collectively influence the demographic rates of Arctic caribou, and may impact the dynamics of populations in the future under changing environmental conditions.

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.-Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Variation in winter site fidelity within and among individuals influences movement behavior in a partially migratory ungulate

Many animals migrate to take advantage of temporal and spatial variability in resources. These benefits are offset with costs like increased energetic expenditure and travel through unfamiliar areas. Differences in the cost-benefit ratio for individuals may lead to partial migration with one portion of a population migrating while another does not. We investigated migration dynamics and winter site fidelity for a long-distance partial migrant, barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) of the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in northern Alaska. We used GPS telemetry for 76 female caribou over 164 annual movement trajectories to identify timing and location of migration and winter use, proportion of migrants, and fidelity to different herd wintering areas. We found within-individual variation in movement behavior and wintering area use by the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd, adding caribou to the growing list of ungulates that can exhibit migratory plasticity. Using a first passage time–net squared displacement approach, we classified 78.7% of annual movement paths as migration, 11.6% as residency, and 9.8% as another strategy. Timing and distance of migration varied by season and wintering area. Duration of migration was longer for fall migration than for spring, which may relate to the latter featuring more directed movement. Caribou utilized four wintering areas, with multiple areas used each year. This variation occurred not just among different individuals, but state sequence analyses indicated low fidelity of individuals to wintering areas among years. Variability in movement behavior can have fitness consequences. As caribou face the pressures of a rapidly warming Arctic and ongoing human development and activities, further research is needed to investigate what factors influence this diversity of behaviors in Alaska and across the circumpolar Arctic.

Dynamic selection for forage quality and quantity in response to phenology and insects in an Arctic ungulate

Spatiotemporal variation in forage is a primary driver of ungulate behavior, yet little is known about the nutritional components they select, and how selection varies across the growing season with changes in forage quality and quantity. We addressed these uncertainties in barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which experience their most important foraging opportunities during the short Arctic summer. Recent declines in Arctic caribou populations have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on summer foraging opportunities, given shifting vegetation conditions and insect harassment, and their potential effects on caribou body condition and demography. We examined Arctic caribou selection of summer forage by pairing locations from females in the Central Arctic Herd of Alaska with spatiotemporal predictions of biomass, digestible nitrogen (DN), and digestible energy (DE). We then assessed selection for these nutritional components across the growing season at landscape and patch scales, and determined whether foraging opportunities were constrained by insect harassment. During early summer, at the landscape scale, caribou selected for intermediate biomass and high DN and DE, following expectations of the forage maturation hypothesis. At the patch scale, however, caribou selected for high values of all forage components, particularly DN, suggesting that protein may be limiting. During late summer, after DN declined below the threshold for protein gain, caribou exhibited a switch at both spatial scales, selecting for higher biomass, likely enabling mass and fat deposition. Mosquito activity strongly altered caribou selection of forage and increased their movement rates, while oestrid fly activity had little influence. Our results demonstrate that early and late summer periods afford Arctic caribou distinct foraging opportunities, as they prioritize quality earlier in the summer and quantity later. Climate change may further constrain caribou access to DN as earlier, warmer Arctic summers may be associated with reduced DN and increased mosquito harassment.

Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics

Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10-80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage availability across the Arctic.

Disentangling the Association of Corn Root Mycobiome With Plant Productivity and the Importance of Soil Physicochemical Balance in Shaping Their Relationship

Soil bacteria and fungi are integral parts of healthy ecosystem functioning in production agriculture. The effects of fungal abundance and diversity on crop productivity is poorly understood. We sampled 10 corn farms at the V10 growth stage across southwestern Ontario, Canada, using aerial infrared imaging to identify zones of low and high productive corn plants. Roots and soils were sampled from low and high yield zones and soil physical and chemical properties were measured in conjunction with assessment of the root mycobiome communities using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 4 rRNA amplicons. Higher crop yields were associated with sites having greater fungal phylogenetic diversity and Fisher's α diversity. Indicator species associated with high and low yield sites within a farm could be identified but there were no shared fungal indicators of productivity differences across farms. Communities largely varied across locations despite crop genetics, demonstrating a major influence of soil texture and chemistry in shaping the mycobiome in a site-specific manner. Across all 4 primers, roots from high-yielding sites shared 35 major OTUs including Penicillium spp., Trichoderma, Chalara fungorum, and Gibellulopsis. Low-yielding sites shared 31 OTUs including Fusarium spp., Pythium, Setophoma terrestris, and Neonectria. Soil physical and chemical parameters that contributed to broad scale differences in yield and mycobiome diversity included: %clay, %sand, %phosphorus saturation, cation exchange capacity, aluminum, pH, iron, potassium, %moisture, organic matter, and chlorine. The results show the importance of physicochemical balance in shaping the relationship between root mycobiome and plant productivity.

Resource selection of a nomadic ungulate in a dynamic landscape

Nomadic movements are often a consequence of unpredictable resource dynamics. However, how nomadic ungulates select dynamic resources is still understudied. Here we examined resource selection of nomadic Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. We used daily GPS locations of 33 gazelles tracked up to 3.5 years. We examined selection for forage during the growing season using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In winter we examined selection for snow cover which mediates access to forage and drinking water. We studied selection at the population level using resource selection functions (RSFs) as well as on the individual level using step-selection functions (SSFs) at varying spatio-temporal scales from 1 to 10 days. Results from the population and the individual level analyses differed. At the population level we found selection for higher than average NDVI during the growing season. This may indicate selection for areas with more forage cover within the arid steppe landscape. In winter, gazelles selected for intermediate snow cover, which may indicate preference for areas which offer some snow for hydration but not so much as to hinder movement. At the individual level, in both seasons and across scales, we were not able to detect selection in the majority of individuals, but selection was similar to that seen in the RSFs for those individuals showing selection. Difficulty in finding selection with SSFs may indicate that Mongolian gazelles are using a random search strategy to find forage in a landscape with large, homogeneous areas of vegetation. The combination of random searches and landscape characteristics could therefore obscure results at the fine scale of SSFs. The significant results on the broader scale used for the population level RSF highlight that, although individuals show uncoordinated movement trajectories, they ultimately select for similar vegetation and snow cover.

Pronounced Fidelity and Selection for Average Conditions of Calving Area Suggestive of Spatial Memory in a Highly Migratory Ungulate

A distinguishing characteristic of many migratory animals is their annual return to distinct calving (birthing) areas in the spring, yet the navigational mechanisms employed during migration that result in this pattern are poorly understood. Effective conservation of these species requires reliable delineation of such areas, quantifying the factors that influence their selection, and understanding the underlying mechanisms resulting in use of calving areas. We used barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) as a study species and identified calving sites of the Western Arctic Herd in Alaska using GPS collar data from 2010–2017. We assessed variability in calving areas by comparing spatial delineations across all combinations of years. To understand calving area selection at a landscape scale, we performed a resource selection analysis comparing calving sites to available locations across the herd’s range and incorporated time-varying, remotely sensed metrics of vegetation quality and quantity. We found that whereas calving areas varied from year to year, this annual variation was centered on an area of recurring attraction consistent with previous studies covering the last six decades. Calving sites were characterized by high-quality forage at the average time of calving, but not peak calving that year, and by a narrow range of distinct physiographic factors. Each year, calving sites were located on areas of above-average conditions based on our predictive model. Our findings indicate that the pattern of spring migration for pregnant females was to migrate to areas that consistently provide high-quality forage when averaged across years, and then upon arriving at this calving ground, refine selection using their perception of annually varying conditions that are driven by environmental stochasticity. We suggest that the well-documented and widespread pattern of fidelity to calving grounds by caribou is supportive of a navigational mechanism based on spatial memory at a broad scale to optimize foraging and energy acquisition at a critical life-history stage. The extent to which migrants depend on memory to reach their spring destinations has implications for the adaptability of populations to changing climate and human impacts.

Regional mapping of species-level continuous foliar cover: beyond categorical vegetation mapping

The ability to quantify spatial patterns and detect change in terrestrial vegetation across large landscapes depends on linking ground-based measurements of vegetation to remotely sensed data. Unlike non-overlapping categorical vegetation types (i.e., typical vegetation and land cover maps), species-level gradients of foliar cover are consistent with the ecological theories of individualistic response of species and niche space. We collected foliar cover data for vascular plant, bryophyte, and lichen species and 17 environmental variables in the Arctic Coastal Plain and Brooks Foothills of Alaska from 2012 to 2017. We integrated these data into a standardized database with 13 additional vegetation survey and monitoring data sets in northern Alaska collected from 1998 to 2017. To map the patterns of foliar cover for six dominant and widespread vascular plant species in arctic Alaska, we statistically associated ground-based measurements of species distribution and abundance to environmental and multi-season spectral covariates using a Bayesian statistical learning approach. For five of the six modeled species, our models predicted 36% to 65% of the observed species-level variation in foliar cover. Overall, our continuous foliar cover maps predicted more of the observed spatial heterogeneity in species distribution and abundance than an existing categorical vegetation map. Mapping continuous foliar cover at the species level also revealed ecological patterns obscured by aggregation in existing plant functional type approaches. Species-level analysis of vegetation patterns enables quantifying and monitoring landscape-level changes in species, vegetation communities, and wildlife habitat independently of subjective categorical vegetation types and facilitates integrating spatial patterns across multiple ecological scales. The novel species-level foliar cover mapping approach described here provides spatial information about the functional role of plant species in vegetation communities and wildlife habitat that are not available in categorical vegetation maps or quantitative maps of broadly defined vegetation aggregates.

An improved understanding of ungulate population dynamics using count data: Insights from western Montana

Understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations is critical given their ecological and economic importance. In particular, the ability to evaluate the evidence for potential drivers of variation in population trajectories is important for informed management. However, the use of age ratio data (e.g., juveniles:adult females) as an index of variation in population dynamics is hindered by a lack of statistical power and difficult interpretation. Here, we show that the use of a population model based on count, classification and harvest data can dramatically improve the understanding of ungulate population dynamics by: 1) providing estimates of vital rates (e.g., per capita recruitment and population growth) that are easier to interpret and more useful to managers than age ratios and 2) increasing the power to assess potential sources of variation in key vital rates. We used a time series of elk (Cervus canadensis) spring count and classification data (2004 to 2016) and fall harvest data from hunting districts in western Montana to construct a population model to estimate vital rates and assess evidence for an association between a series of environmental covariates and indices of predator abundance on per capita recruitment rates of elk calves. Our results suggest that per capita recruitment rates were negatively associated with cold and wet springs, and severe winters, and positively associated with summer precipitation. In contrast, an analysis of the raw age ratio data failed to detect these relationships. Our approach based on a population model provided estimates of the region-wide mean per capita recruitment rate (mean = 0.25, 90% CI = 0.21, 0.29), temporal variation in hunting-district-specific recruitment rates (minimum = 0.09; 90% CI = [0.07, 0.11], maximum = 0.43; 90% CI = [0.38, 0.48]), and annual population growth rates (minimum = 0.83; 90% CI = [0.78, 0.87], maximum = 1.20; 90% CI = [1.11, 1.29]). We recommend using routinely collected population count and classification data and a population modeling approach rather than interpreting estimated age ratios as a substantial improvement in understanding population dynamics.

Is summer food intake a limiting factor for boreal browsers? Diet, temperature, and reproduction as drivers of consumption in female moose

Food intake may limit the ability of browsing mammals to gain body mass during the growing season when the leaves and stems of woody plants are most abundant. Moose are highly productive browsers with high demands for energy and nutrients, particularly during lactation. Using an indigestible marker, we estimated dry matter intake of free ranging adult female moose with and without calves over three growing seasons. During the same period, we analyzed forage quality. Intakes were highest in late spring (280 ± 19 g·kg-0.75·d-1) when forage quality peaked; however, intakes declined by 39% throughout the summer as temperatures increased and as acid detergent fiber content of browse increased. Digestibility of dry matter declined over summer from 71% to 57% among browse. Intakes were similar for moose with and without calves. Heat loads may impair the ability of moose to consume sufficient energy and nutrients. Warming and habitat change can adversely affect browser populations when poor forage qualities and low dry matter intakes combine to suppress digestible intakes of energy and nutrients.

Migratory goose arrival time plays a larger role in influencing forage quality than advancing springs in an Arctic coastal wetland

With warmer springs, herbivores migrating to Arctic breeding grounds may experience phenological mismatches between their energy demands and the availability of high quality forage. Yet, how the timing of the start of the season and herbivore arrival influences forage quality is often unknown. In coastal western Alaska, approximately one million migratory geese arrive each spring to breed, where foliar %N and C:N ratios are linked to gosling survival and population growth. We conducted a three-year experiment where we manipulated the start of the growing season using warming chambers and grazing times using captive Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) to examine how the timing of these events influences the quality of an important forage species. Our results suggest that grazing timing plays a much greater role than an advanced growing season in determining forage quality. All top models included grazing timing, and suggested that compared to typical grazing timing, early grazing significantly reduced foliar %C by 6% and C:N ratios by 16%, while late goose grazing significantly reduced foliar %N by 15% and increased foliar C:N ratios by 21%. While second-ranking top models included the effect of season, the advanced growing season effect was not significant and only reduced %N by 4%, increased %C by <1%, and increased C:N ratios by 5% compared to an ambient growing season. In summary, in years where geese arrive early, they will consume higher quality forage when they arrive and throughout the season, while in years that geese arrive late they will consume lower quality forage when they arrive and for the remainder of the season. When the growing season starts has only a minor influence on this pattern. Our findings suggest that cues determining migration and arrival times to breeding areas are important factors influencing forage quality for geese in western Alaska.