One hundred and six years of change in a Sonoran Desert plant community: Impact of climate anomalies and trends in species sensitivities

A major restriction in predicting plant community response to future climate change is a lack of long-term data needed to properly assess species and community response to climate and identify a baseline to detect climate anomalies. Here, we use a 106-year dataset on a Sonoran Desert plant community to test the role of extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies on community dynamics at the decadal scale and over time. Additionally, we tested the climate sensitivity of 39 desert plant species and whether sensitivity was associated with growth form, longevity, geographic range, or local dominance. We found that desert plant communities had shifted directionally over the 106 years, but the climate had little influence on this directional change primarily due to nonlinear shifts in precipitation anomalies. Decadal-scale climate had the largest impact on species richness, species relative density, and total plant cover, explaining up to 26%, 45%, and 55% of the variance in each, respectively. Drought and the interaction between the frequency of freeze events and above-average summer precipitation were among the most influential climate factors. Increased drought frequency and wetter periods with frequent freeze events led to larger reductions in total plant cover, species richness, and the relative densities of dominant subshrubs Ambrosia deltoidea and Encelia farinosa. More than 80% of the tested species were sensitive to climate, but sensitivity was not associated with a species' local dominance, longevity, geographic range, or growth form. Some species appear to exhibit demographic buffering, where when they have a higher sensitivity to drought, they also tend to have a higher sensitivity to favorable (i.e., wetter and hotter) conditions. Overall, our results suggest that, while decadal-scale climate variation substantially impacts these desert plant communities, directional change in temperature over the last century has had little impact due to the relative importance of precipitation and drought. With projections of increased drought in this region, we may see reductions in total vegetation cover and species richness due to the loss of species, possibly through a breakdown in their ability to demographically buffer climatic variation, potentially changing community dynamics through a change in facilitative and competitive processes.

Episodic recruitment in the saguaro cactus is driven by multidecadal periodicities

Each year, an individual mature large saguaro cactus produces about one million seeds in attractive juicy fruits that lure seed predators and seed dispersers to a 3-month feast. From the million seeds produced, however, only a few will persist into mature saguaros. A century of research on saguaro population dynamics has led to the conclusion that saguaro recruitment is an episodic event that depends on the convergence of suitable conditions for survival during the critical early stages. Because most data have been collected in Arizona, particularly in the surroundings of Tucson, most research has relied on a limited amount of environmental variation. In this study, we upscaled this knowledge on saguaro recruitment to a regional scale with a new method that used the inverse-growth modeling of 1,487 saguaros belonging to 13 populations in a latitudinal gradient ranging from arid desert to tropical thornscrub forest in Sonora, Mexico. Using generalized linear and additive mixed models, we created two 110-yr-long saguaro recruitment curves: one driven only by previous size, and the second driven by size, drought, and soil structure. We found evidence that saguaro recruitment is indeed episodic, with periodicities of 20-30 yr, possibly related to strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results suggest that saguaros rely on multidecadal periodic pulses of good beneficial years to incorporate new individuals into their populations. Inverse-growth modeling can be used in a wide variety of plant species to study their recruitment dynamics.

Developing a geospatial measure of change in core temperature for migrating persons in the Mexico-U.S. border region

Although heat exposure is the leading cause of mortality for undocumented immigrants attempting to traverse the Mexico-U.S. border, there has been little work in quantifying risk. Therefore, our study aims to develop a methodology projecting increase in core temperature over time and space for migrants in Southern Arizona using spatial analysis and remote sensing in combination with the heat balance equation-adapting physiological formulae to a multi-step geospatial model using local climate conditions, terrain, and body specifics. We sought to quantitatively compare the results by demographic categories of age and sex and qualitatively compare them to known terrestrial conditions and prior studies of those conditions. We demonstrated a more detailed measure of risk for migrants than those used most recently: energy expenditure and terrain ruggedness. Our study not only gives a better understanding of the 'funnel effect' mechanisms, but also provides an opportunity for relief and rescue operations.