Timing to temperature: Egg‐laying dates respond to temperature and are under stronger selection at northern latitudes

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Nesting Phenology of Three Shorebird Species in the United States

Previous research suggests that a frequent response of organisms to the ongoing climate crisis is the adjustment of their reproductive timing or breeding phenology. Shorebirds may be especially vulnerable to increasing temperatures and precipitation, as many are migratory and depend on coastal habitats for wintering and breeding. These particular habitats could be at risk due to changes in climate, and nesting times often depend on food availability, which is often directly influenced by temperature. We investigated if clutch initiation dates (CID) for three shorebird species in the United States have become earlier over time with increasing temperatures and precipitation. We used nest records from Cornell's NestWatch program and various museum databases and weather station data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We found evidence that CIDs have become earlier over time, though this was only a significant factor for one species. While temperature in our study areas has increased significantly over time, precipitation changes were more variable and not always significantly predicted by time. We found evidence that one species may be responding to increasing temperatures by nesting earlier, but there was no support for our hypothesis that CID has changed due to changes in precipitation for any species. Results varied for each species, indicating the importance of further studies on shorebirds as the effects of climate change on their nesting phenology may not be fully realized and will likely depend on the species' biology and distribution.

Quantifying long-term phenological patterns of aerial insectivores roosting in the Great Lakes region using weather surveillance radar

Organisms have been shifting their timing of life history events (phenology) in response to changes in the emergence of resources induced by climate change. Yet understanding these patterns at large scales and across long time series is often challenging. Here we used the US weather surveillance radar network to collect data on the timing of communal swallow and martin roosts and evaluate the scale of phenological shifts and its potential association with temperature. The discrete morning departures of these aggregated aerial insectivores from ground-based roosting locations are detected by radars around sunrise. For the first time, we applied a machine learning algorithm to automatically detect and track these large-scale behaviors. We used 21 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations in the Great Lakes region to quantify the phenology in roosting behavior of aerial insectivores at three spatial levels: local roost cluster, radar station, and across the Great Lakes region. We show that their peak roosting activity timing has advanced by 2.26 days per decade at the regional scale. Similar signals of advancement were found at the station scale, but not at the local roost cluster scale. Air temperature trends in the Great Lakes region during the active roosting period were predictive of later stages of roosting phenology trends (75% and 90% passage dates). Our study represents one of the longest-term broad-scale phenology examinations of avian aerial insectivore species responding to environmental change and provides a stepping stone for examining potential phenological mismatches across trophic levels at broad spatial scales.

Long-term field study reveals that warmer summers lead to larger and longer-lived females only in northern populations of Natterer's bats

Animals often respond to climate change with changes in morphology, e.g., shrinking body size with increasing temperatures, as expected by Bergmann's rule. Because small body size can have fitness costs for individuals, this trend could threaten populations. Recent studies, however, show that morphological responses to climate change and the resulting fitness consequences cannot be generalized even among related species. In this long-term study, we investigate the interaction between ambient temperature, body size and survival probability in a large number of individually marked wild adult female Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri). We compare populations from two geographical regions in Germany with a different climate. In a sliding window analysis, we found larger body sizes in adult females that were raised in warmer summers only in the northern population, but not in the southern population that experienced an overall warmer climate. With a capture-mark-recapture approach, we showed that larger individuals had higher survival rates, demonstrating that weather conditions in early life could have long-lasting fitness effects. The different responses in body size to warmer temperatures in the two regions highlight that fitness-relevant morphological responses to climate change have to be viewed on a regional scale and may affect local populations differently.

Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), a global arbovirus, is the most prevalent mosquito-transmitted infection in the United States. Forecasts of WNV risk during the upcoming transmission season could provide the basis for targeted mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. We developed the Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) WNV forecasting system and used it in South Dakota from 2016 to 2019. This study reports a post hoc forecast validation and model comparison.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to validate historical predictions of WNV cases with independent data that were not used for model calibration. We tested the hypothesis that predictive models based on mosquito surveillance data combined with meteorological variables were more accurate than models based on mosquito or meteorological data alone.

METHODS

The ArboMAP system incorporated models that predicted the weekly probability of observing one or more human WNV cases in each county. We compared alternative models with different predictors including a) a baseline model based only on historical WNV cases, b) mosquito models based on seasonal patterns of infection rates, c) environmental models based on lagged meteorological variables, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit, d) combined models with mosquito infection rates and lagged meteorological variables, and e) ensembles of two or more combined models. During the WNV season, models were calibrated using data from previous years and weekly predictions were made using data from the current year. Forecasts were compared with observed cases to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other metrics of spatial and temporal prediction error.

RESULTS

Mosquito and environmental models outperformed the baseline model that included county-level averages and seasonal trends of WNV cases. Combined models were more accurate than models based only on meteorological or mosquito infection variables. The most accurate model was a simple ensemble mean of the two best combined models. Forecast accuracy increased rapidly from early June through early July and was stable thereafter, with a maximum AUC of 0.85. The model predictions captured the seasonal pattern of WNV as well as year-to-year variation in case numbers and the geographic pattern of cases.

DISCUSSION

The predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough in the WNV season to allow public health responses before the peak of human cases in August. This early warning is necessary because other indicators of WNV risk, including early reports of human cases and mosquito abundance, are poor predictors of case numbers later in the season. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10287.

Egg-laying increases body temperature to an annual maximum in a wild bird

Most birds, unlike reptiles, lay eggs successively to form a full clutch. During egg-laying, birds are highly secretive and prone to disturbance and predation. Using multisensor data loggers, we show that average daily body temperature during egg-laying is significantly increased (1 °C) in wild eider ducks (Somateria mollissima). Strikingly, this increase corresponds to the annual maximum body temperature (40.7 °C), representing a severe annual thermogenic challenge. This egg-laying-induced rise in body temperature may prove to be a common feature of wild birds and could be caused by habitat-related thermoregulatory adjustments and hormonal modulation of reproduction. We conclude our findings with new perspectives of the benefits of high body temperature associated with egg-laying of birds and the potential effect of heat stress that may occur with the future advent of heatwaves.

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.

Integrating Causal and Evolutionary Analysis of Life-History Evolution: Arrival Date in a Long-Distant Migrant

In migratory species, the timing of arrival at the breeding grounds is a life-history trait with major fitness consequences. The optimal arrival date varies from year-to-year, and animals use cues to adjust their arrival dates to match this annual variation. However, which cues they use to time their arrival and whether these cues actually predict the annual optimal arrival date is largely unknown. Here, we integrate causal and evolutionary analysis by identifying the environmental variables used by a migratory songbird to time its arrival dates and testing whether these environmental variables also predicted the optimal time to arrive. We used 11 years of male arrival data of a pied flycatcher population. Specifically, we tested whether temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values from their breeding grounds in the Netherlands and from their wintering grounds in Ivory Coast explained the variation in arrival date, and whether these variables correlated with the position of the annual fitness peak at the breeding grounds. We found that temperature and NDVI, both from the wintering and the breeding grounds, explained the annual variation in arrival date, but did not correlate with the optimal arrival date. We explore three alternative explanations for this lack of correlation. Firstly, the date of the fitness peak may have been incorrectly estimated because a potentially important component of fitness (i.e., migration date dependent mortality en route or directly upon arrival) could not be measured. Secondly, we focused on male timing but the fitness landscape is also likely to be shaped by female timing. Finally, the correlation has recently disappeared because climate change disrupted the predictive value of the cues that the birds use to time their migration. In the latter case, birds may adapt by altering their sensitivity to temperature and NDVI.

Warmer April Temperatures on Breeding Grounds Promote Earlier Nesting in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird, the Prothonotary Warbler

Global climate change and warming are altering hemispheric and local weather patterns. Altered weather patterns have great potential to affect the phenology of life history events, such as the initiation of breeding in organisms that reproduce seasonally. Long-distance migratory birds may be particularly challenged by changes in local weather on breeding grounds because they arrive from distant locations and must commence breeding when conditions are appropriate. Here we explore the effects of local temperature on first egg dates and annual productivity in a long-distance Neotropical migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler Protonotaria citrea. We present results from a 20-year (1994 to 2013) study documenting the detailed nesting activities of a color-marked population (average of 155 individual females each year) of warblers in southern Illinois, United States. The warblers typically arrive in April and start breeding in late April and May in our study system. We tested for an effect of local average April daily temperature and female age on first egg dates, total number of offspring produced per female, and the probability of fledging two broods. We found that warmer April temperatures promoted earlier first egg dates and higher average annual productivity in the warblers. On average, older females had earlier first egg dates than 1-year-old females, but both age groups responded similarly to local April temperatures. The reproductive gains associated with earlier first egg dates in warmer years stemmed from an increased probability of successfully fledging two broods, suggesting that earlier first egg dates do not currently create a mismatch with food (insect) resources. Earliest arrival dates of warblers to the region of our study system were not affected by local April temperatures, suggesting that females vary their first egg date based on conditions they experience/assess after their arrival. Whereas these birds currently adjust the timing of their breeding and actually produce more offspring in warmer years, continued global warming may eventually upset the current balance between arrival dates, food resources, and the commencement of nesting.